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Climate Crunch: How the war is reigniting energy transition

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➔ Renewable projects can serve as a playbook for Indigenous participation in future developments

➔ How methane abatement could replace lost Middle East gas supplies

➔ Your backyard can help save the environment

Signals

Top 10 Indigenous-owned projects by count

Power and utilities dominate Indigenous participation. That’s both its strength and its constraint, says Energy Policy Lead Shaz Merwat. Loan guarantee programs have been most active in western Canada, while northern communities, closest to the mineral deposits the energy transition requires, lack transaction readiness. Yet, the electrification trend offers substantial Indigenous investment opportunities nationwide. Read our Nations Building report that examines ways to boost First Nations participation as Canada embarks on a new project wave.

Methane mitigation could replace gas supplies stranded due to the Strait of Hormuz closure. That’s the stunning assessment from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which estimates that available methane abatement measures could free up to 200 billion cubic metres of natural gas—or double the supply volumes cut off due to the virtual closure of the Strait. Large quantities of produced gas are not being put to productive use, owing to methane leaks, and flaring and venting from oil and gas operations. The cost-effective, proven technologies could abate three-quarters of emissions from oil and gas and about half of coal emissions, according to the IEA. (Also read: What the Canada-Alberta methane deal means for businesses).

Nature conservation icon Sir David Attenborough is now eyeing his backyard for sustainability. After traversing the world’s wildest places, Attenborough’s new BBC series focuses on the often overlooked garden. It may have several low-hanging fruits, literally: home gardens can reduce carbon emissions, sequester carbon, and produce fresh food (pro tip: use rainwater to go truly green). Canadians already have a head start: About three in five Canadian households (59%) grew fruit, herbs, vegetables or flowers for personal use in a survey a few years ago.

How the Middle East conflict is accelerating renewable energy adoption

It’s early days, but the stalemate playing out over the Strait of Hormuz is forcing countries to renew their focus on electrifying their way out of fossil fuels. We have been here before as recently as 2022 when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, upending European energy ties to Russian oil and gas. Yet coal, oil and gas rebounded to near all-time highs.

Will it be different this time? Here are five ways the crisis has rekindled momentum for energy transition.

1. Global consensus is hardening. Santa Marta, Colombia, was the site last week of the First Conference on Transitioning away from Fossil Fuels, where 57 nations—including Canada—sought ways to move towards cleaner energy.While several lofty goals were expounded, a key takeaway was to launch a panel of experts who would provide scientific input on reducing fossil fuel dependence, high energy prices and extreme weather damage. It could be a breeding ground for new ideas.

2. AccelerateEU aims to shield Europe from energy price shocks. One idea is to accelerate the shift to “home green clean energy,” including an Electrification Action Plan to be released by the European Commission by the summer.

3. Knee-jerk consumer behaviour could alter long-term demand. Global EV sales jumped 66% in March compared to February, as some consumers baulked at the prices at the pump and switched to EVs. Several countries in Europe and Asia had record-breaking months. That could have long lasting consequences for fuel demand and what’s called” demand destruction.” In Canada, more than 12,600 zero-emission vehicles were sold in February, compared with nearly 8,700 the month before, recent Statistics Canada data shows. An AutoTrader survey of 17,000 Canadians found half of respondents would now consider buying an EV.

local bureaucrats

4. Chinese bureaucrats are now on the clean-energy case. The country is launching a campaign aimed at accelerating climate action by local authorities, in an effort to plateau CO2 emissions before 2030. At stake: rewards and career progress for local bureaucrats. Never underestimate the resourcefulness of a middle manager keen to get their performance bonus.

5. Most renewables are now competitive with fossil fuels. Even before the Iran war, the price competitiveness of solar and wind energy was the primary driver of power sector decarbonization, according to Ember Energy. In 2025, the average Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for solar ($39/MWh) and onshore wind ($40/MWh) was 60% lower than that of combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT), which stood at $102/MWh. Offshore wind ($100/MWh) has also reached price parity CCGT. US$100+ oil prices only make the case for renewables more compelling. China’s export of photovoltaic solar panels, lithium-ion batteries and new-energy vehicles rose 70% in March year-on-year, Carbon Brief’s analysis of Chinese customs data shows.

The Climate Competitiveness Strategy update

Here’s what Lisa Ashton, Head of Research, gleaned from Ottawa’s latest Spring Economic Update:

Clean investment push continues. Expanded tax credits and incentives for carbon capture, clean electricity, and clean technologies aim to attract private capital and scale domestic innovation.

Proposed $5 billion in international climate investment. Flowing through Environment and Climate Change Canada, FinDev and Global Affairs Canada, the update proposes spending on climate initiatives and technology development in emerging economies around the world to advance global decarbonization. Carbon pricing framework is reinforced. Working to strengthen industrial carbon pricing benchmarks and ensuring consistent national standards remain central to competitiveness. Yet, key decisions are pending, namely performance standards. Another obstacle: the oil industry is pushing back on the carbon tax.

Funding of $3.5 billion towards scaling nature positive outcomes. Announced in the government’s Force of Nature strategy, the federal government will stimulate investments in nature, tying climate competitiveness to conservation goals (e.g., protecting 30% of lands and waters by 2030).

Integration with broader economic strategy. The proposed Sustainable Finance Conference and the development of the made-in Canada sustainable investment guidelines aim to connect public and private dollars in key economic sectors, linking sustainable investments to jobs, affordability, and global competitiveness.

The takeaway. Canada is doubling down on a market-driven, investment-led approach to climate policy. The country will need to advance key strategies and agreements including the energy MoU with Alberta to drive real outcomes through its renewed approach.

Conversations

First Nations Major Project Coalition’s 9th annual conference

  • Atthe First Nations Major Project Coalition’s 9th annual conference, John Stackhouse discussed how economic reconciliation and Indigenous equity are vital to ensure Canada’s big ambitions are fully realized.

  • Gregory Brew, a historian of international energy and U.S.-Iranian relations and a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group, on how America would pay dearly for its energy arrogance.

  • Subsidies and price floors are temporary tools, demand is what would sustain prices and investor confidence in critical minerals, writes Gracelin Baskaran, director, critical minerals security, at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Curated by Yadullah Hussain, Managing Editor, RBC Climate Action Institute.

Climate Crunch would not be possible without John Stackhouse, Jordan Brennan, John Intini, Farhad Panahov, Lisa Ashton, Shaz Merwat, Vivan Sorab, Caprice Biasoni, Lavanya Kaleeswaran and Joelle Schonberg .

Have a comment, commendation, or umm, criticism? Write to me here (yadullahhussain@rbc.com)

Climate Crunch Newsletter

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Canada and Alberta’s recent agreement-in-principle on methane equivalency sets a 75% reduction target in oil and gas methane emissions by 2035, relative to 2014 levels.1 It could prove to be consequential for the country’s climate ambitions: methane has roughly 80 times the warming impact of CO₂ over a 20-year period and accounts for nearly a quarter of the sector’s total greenhouse gas emissions, making it one of the lowest-cost, highest-impact levers for near-term climate progress.

For oil and gas producers, methane emissions measurement and performance now has greater flexibility on implementation but brings verification to the forefront.

In many instances, things are already up and running among oil and gas operators as several key methane emissions abatement technologies are well established, including:

  • Vapour recovery units that capture gas from storage tanks that would otherwise be vented;

  • Low-bleed pneumatic devices that eliminate routine methane releases from instruments controlling valves and pumps;

  • Compressor seal replacements that prevent leaks from pressurized equipment;

  • Leak detection and repair programs that use optical gas imaging and continuous monitors to find and tackle fugitive emissions.

Collectively, these technologies could reduce emissions by more than three million tonnes per year, representing roughly 1% of Alberta’s annual emissions.2

The province has deployed them at scale. Alberta has invested $172 million in methane reduction technology since 2019, including the installation of more than 58,000 low- or no-bleed devices. The outcomes are tangible: government-funded programs have prevented an estimated 17 million tonnes of emissions from being released, according to the Alberta government. A $25-million implementation program helped 49 operators deploy equipment across more than 650 sites at abatement costs below $50 per tonne.3

Canada’s broader methane mitigation sector has grown to more than 130 firms, with compliance actions under the enhanced regulations projected to generate 34,000 jobs from 2027 to 2040.

However, the progress is not without its headwinds. Alberta had frozen the TIER Fund credit price at $95 per tonne in May 2025, well below the federal trajectory to $170, citing U.S. tariff pressures.4 The MoU commits both governments to a minimum effective price of $130 per tonne, but days after signing, Alberta introduced amendments that flooded the credit market.

The measurement gap

While the agreement is promising, success depends on transparent verification, particularly given that a multi-year aerial campaign found Western Canadian oil and gas methane emissions were nearly twice official inventories.5 Canada acknowledged this when it updated its methodology, resulting in a more than 35% increase in reported fugitive emissions.6 The agreement’s commitment to independent third-party assessment may prove its most consequential element.

How Canada compares to its peers

Norway has the world’s lowest methane intensity thanks to a flaring ban dating back to 1971, but its oil and gas sector is a fraction of Canada’s scale.7 The IEA’s Global Methane Tracker 2025 places Canada’s upstream intensity at approximately 0.40 kg methane/GJ, below the global average of 0.55 kg methane/GJ and well ahead of Russia, Iran, and Turkmenistan, but higher than Norway and Saudi Arabia.8

The EU’s Methane Regulation, the world’s first legally binding standard, will require importers to report methane intensity from 2028 and meet maximum intensity thresholds by 2030, connecting low-methane performance with market access, potentially creating an advantage for producers that can compete on methane intensity.9

Private capital is tracking the signal. One recent example is Montreal-based GHGSat, which raised $47 million in September 2025, bringing total financing to $173 million, backed by Canadian entities Yaletown Partners, BDC Capital, and National Bank.10 The company now operates 16 methane-detecting satellites and has partnered with ExxonMobil and Aramco.

What’s next

A draft equivalency agreement is expected for 60-day public consultation later this year. The signals point toward a tightening global methane regime: EU import standards by 2030; Japan and South Korea seeking lower-carbon gas supply; and the Global Methane Pledge, endorsed by 159 countries.

Vivan Sorab is RBC Thought Leadership’s Clean Tech Lead

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Earth Day 2026: Nature's Richers, Resources, and revival in Canada Living Planet - Canada's Natural resources include 94.3 acres of arable land, 20% of World's Fresh water, 33% of World's coastline, 24% of World's boreal forests. Mother Nature's Fury: Heat , drought, flooding and fire include 6.26M hectares affected in canada last year - quaruple the 10-year average, $2B in annual cost of structure damage to homes- making it Canad's number one natural disaster, it is estimated that year 2026 will be the hottest on the record globally, following record-breaking hear in 2023 and 2024, 47% record drop in Saskatchewan's crop production due to droughts in 2021.

Signals

“Our power, our planet” is the global theme of this year’s Earth Day. Indeed, clean power often lays the foundation of a cleaner economy. New research from RBC’s Jordan Brennan and Farhad Panahov shows Canada’s electricity system needs an estimated $670 billion over the next 10 years to support the energy transition. While 80% non-emitting, Canada’s grid will need new capacity and modernization. For more, read the Capital Gains report.

Wildfires don’t stop for Earth Day. Close to 200 wildfires were simmering away in Canada last week, just under twice the 10-year average for this time of year. It highlights the scale of the challenge of protecting nature. As a recent RBC report notes, ignoring nature threatens prosperity, especially as we push forward with nation-building projects. It’s time to see conservation as a capital that others will be able tap into for generations to come.

The famous Fischer-Tropsch process brought us gasoline and jet fuel—now it’s poised to make sustainable fuels. Exactlya century after Franz Fischer and Hans Tropsch revolutionized hydrocarbons, the same technique is being used to decouple hydrocarbon production from fossil-derived feedstocks, with emphasis on producing sustainable aviation fuels from carbon dioxide. But true sustainability requires system integration with “upstream low-carbon modules such as green hydrogen and CO₂ capture,” said Peking University’s Ding Ma in Nature. The process is moving beyond labs, with several countries, including China, working on low-carbon chemical manufacturing.

How does Canada’s portfolio management compare globally?

Natural capital–things like forests, clean water, fertile soil, and biodiversity–is one of the most valuable assets any country has. It supports industries, protects communities, and plays a major role in climate resilience. Canada is exceptionally rich in natural capital, but when it comes to investing in and managing it, the picture is mixed—especially compared to countries like the United Kingdom, Australia, and Denmark.

Canada’s natural wealth is hard to overstate. The country holds about 24% of the world’s boreal forest and roughly 20% of its freshwater resources. Natural resource sectors, including oil, mining, forestry, and agriculture, contribute around 20% of Canada’s GDP, including their supply chains. Yet, Canada has struggled to turn natural capital into an investable asset class at scale.

Lessons from around the world

United Kingdom: The U.K. has taken a more systematic approach to embed natural capital accounting into policy and planning. Since 2012, the U.K.’s Natural Capital Committee advised the government on how to measure and invest in ecosystems, which evolved into the Office of Environmental Protection in 2021. Today, the U.K. publishes official natural capital accounts that estimate the economic value of forests, rivers, and other assets–an accounting tool that Canada also has at its disposal under the UN framework: System of Environmental-Economic Accounting. The U.K.’s approach to economic and environmentally informed decisions is complemented by market mechanisms that can stimulate investments in natural assets, such as the Biodiversity Net Gain scheme.

Australia: Like Canada, it is rich in natural resources and heavily dependent on them economically for mining, agriculture, and oil and gas. However, Australia has taken a more aggressive approach to attract private investment into natural capital. Scaled infrastructure projects have been used to mobilize institutional investments, including Canadian pension funds, into long-term projects, including renewable energy development and sustainable land use. An example is the Murray–Darling Basin Plan, a $13-billion initiative to manage water resources sustainably across the country’s food bowl.

Denmark: The Scandinavian country doesn’t have Canada’s vast natural resources. Instead it has focused its attention on baking environmental sustainability into tax law to make investment in sustainably managing natural resources the more economically attractive option. As a result, more than 50% of Denmark’s electricity comes from wind and solar power.

While Canada has made important commitments, it still lacks the coordinated systems of its peers. Pillar three of the Force of Nature Strategy, Valuing Nature and Mobilizing Capital aims to address this challenge. Starting with an Expert Taskforce on Natural Capital Accounting and Nature Financing, the federal government looks to mobilize private capital, blended with their $3.8 billion commitment for nature positive outcomes. If Canada can measure the value of its natural assets, attract more private investment, and align environmental goals with economic growth, it has the potential to turn its natural wealth into a long-term economic advantage.

Dive into more insights on Natural Capital: Unearthing Value: How nature can play a critical role in pro-growth agendas – RBC

Banking on Soil

“The farmer is responsible for the soil [they] till. This natural resource will not restore itself as fast as it is depleted…The farmer, therefore, needs to open a soil-savings account. It will not only conserve [their] soil, but it will return an increased income and accumulate interest.”

That quotation, pulled from a 1948 edition of RBC’s Making Money by Saving Soils, is as true today as it was when it was first written. In fact, the soil conservation conversation has been a constant among farmers long before that. Sure, things have evolved—with research, big data and technology helping to uncover more about the dynamics of the ground beneath our feet. But many of the challenges of conserving soils to grow healthy crops remain the same. Read more on soil health from Lisa Ashton, the Climate Action Institute’s Interim Head, at the link.

Conversations

  • There are 10,000 events worldwide to celebrate Earth Day 2026. But if you don’t have time, Eathday.org offers 50 ways to take action for the planet.

  • Deep retrofits would cost $10 per square foot to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Canadian buildings by 40% by 2030, according to a new MaRS report.

  • James Rising and others at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change write on how climate adaptation investments can yield a ‘triple dividend’: preventing losses, stimulating economic activity and providing social and environmental co-benefits.

  • Shrugging off a backlash against renewables, 44% of Americans continue to worry a great deal about climate change—that’s close to its highest point ever. A record low 35% are feeling positive about the environment, according to Gallup.

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“We must be quite clear about one point: the farmer is responsible for the soil [they] till. This natural resource will not restore itself as fast as it is depleted…The farmer, therefore, needs to open a soil-savings account. It will not only conserve [their] soil, but it will return an increased income and accumulate interest.”

That quotation, pulled from a 1958 edition of Making Money by Saving Soils (the original source of RBC Thought Leadership), is as true today as it was when it was first written. In fact, the soil conservation conversation has been a constant among farmers long before that. And while things have evolved, research, data and technology have helped to uncover more about the dynamics of the ground beneath our feet, many of the challenges of conserving soils to grow healthy crops remain the same.

Mid-20th Century: Soil as a national responsibility

In 1950, one in five Canadians were part of the farm population.1 At the time, RBC described three good reasons to save soils:

  • Make a living

  • The hope to make a better living

  • Have a going concern to hand onto the next generation

Farmers were encouraged to adopt practices like crop rotations, responsible nutrient management, and conserving edge-of-field environments like forests and waterways. Back then, tillage was encouraged for three reasons: the preparation of a suitable seed bed, the destruction of plants that would compete with growing crops, and the improvement in the physical condition of soil. Today, the opposite is often encouraged to reduce soil loss, build soil biodiversity, and avoid disrupting soil carbon sinks. This change has served Canadian soil health well. Canada’s agricultural soils are estimated to be a net carbon sink today, driven by widespread adoption of no-tillage in the prairies and increases in productivity across the country.2

Late-20th century: Soils as foundation to the productivity boom

Agriculture transformed between the 1940s and 1970s with advancements in life science and mechanization, leading to mass adoption of new crop varieties, fertilizers, pesticides and modern farm equipment that allowed farmers to produce more per acre for a growing global population. And it was all being done by fewer farmers–by 1980, 1 in 21 Canadians were part of the farm population.3

Farmers were introducing more nutrients to their soils, including nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium to optimize the growth of crops. In some cases, adding more nutrients led to the excess use of fertilizer, which had a negative impact on soil composition and externalities such as pollution of waterways. But the productivity boost also meant more crop residue was being returned to the soil, adding to soil organic matter.

The tools introduced to agriculture during the Green Revolution continue to be fine-tuned today to help farmers produce more high-quality crops. Increasingly, inputs and equipment are presenting win-win opportunities for soil health and productivity with the development of tools like biological fertilizers or see and spray technology for pesticide application that only applies chemicals where needed to eliminate invasive plants.

21st Century: Soil as natural capital

Today, less than 2% of Canadians call a farm their home or place of work.4 Remarkably, on the shoulders of this small group, Canada ranks in the top 10 globally for food security, agri-food exports, as well as food quality and safety.5 6 But it’s also a threat to the future growth of the agriculture and food sector as fewer Canadians step foot on a working farm or meet someone working in the sector.

Farmers today, compared with 70 years ago, rely on a much larger network of partners and advisors to do their job, including everything from finance, agronomy, technology, machinery, farm transition planning and sustainability. It’s less likely today than it ever was for young people see these diverse, dynamic and exciting careers in agriculture, beyond farming. For instance, data and computer scientists are developing AI tools for farmers that perfect the precision of inputs like fertilizers, environmental consultants are connecting farmers to marketplaces that reward soil conservation via credits and premiums, and trade experts are moving Canadia-made products to new markets. Engaging more Canadians in the journey of strengthening agriculture as a foundational sector for Canada’s prosperity and the importance of conserving natural assets like healthy soils are the big challenges ahead.

A close read of the 1958 publication provides a glimpse of what’s next–change: “To be good conservationists it may be necessary for us to remake some of our thought, abandon some customary practices, and revise, sometimes drastically, our methods of farming.”

What is Soil Health?

The continued capacity of soil to function as a vital living ecosystem that sustains plants, animals, and humans.7 Soil is foundational to our economy and environment. Roughly 95% of the food we consume needs soil to grow.8 Soils are also the largest terrestrial carbon sink–holding three times the amount of carbon stored in the atmosphere and twice the amount in all living vegetation.9

Lisa Ashton is RBC Thought Leadership’s Agriculture Policy Lead

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➔ Can the Canada-Alberta methane deal deliver both rising oil and gas production and falling emissions?

➔ Why Canada’s clean trade is in the red

➔  A British Columbia city leads on heat bylaws

➔  Canada’s clean-tech trade deficit is growing. The country’s environmental and clean tech (ECT) trade deficit has steadily risen to $15.6-billion in 2024 compared to $2.4 billion a decade ago, Statistics Canada’s latest data shows. Imports of clean electricity—Canada’s prized climate ace—have surged in recent years, just as exports fell due to drought conditions and growing domestic electricity demand. Clean tech hardware, spanning wind turbines, electric vehicles, water treatment equipment, accounted for around 80% of the growth in imports, aligned with strong adoption and deployment trends in Canada over the same period, says Economist Farhad Panahov

Canada's green trade deficit

➔  The EU created the bloc’s first voluntary scheme for carbon removal credits. The credits produced under the Carbon Removals and Carbon Farming (CRCF) Regulation are being designed for the voluntary carbon market, to boost scalability and help the EU meet its net-zero 2050 targets. It could be a model for Canada: the agriculture sector has a patchwork of pathways to enter compliance and voluntary market opportunities, but with limited availability of compliance protocols that recognize the role of farmers in building the country’s carbon sinks through sustainable practices, says Lisa Ashton , Interim Head of RBC’s Climate Action Institute. However, the Canada-Alberta energy MoU and carbon pricing benchmark review potentially open the door for Canada to streamline farmers’ ability to access carbon markets.

➔  Hydro Quebec wants households to generate their own energy. A new $1,000 per kW grant for solar kits aims to cover up to 40% of eligible project costs. Quebec is a laggard compared to other North American jurisdictions on solar as cheap hydroelectricity meant 25-30-year payback periods made solar uneconomical. That’s changing. As Hydro-Québec develops alternative power sources and redirects surplus hydro for exports and industry, distributed generation eases the strain on the grid. Indeed, households can even sell excess power back to the grid. The new incentives aim to drop investment costs from $36,000 to $24,000—a payback period of 10-12 years. While that’s a long time to recoup costs, it’s hard to compete with the lowest electricity prices on the continent. In contrast, in Pakistan, which is in the midst of a solar revolution, a similar set up would cost $6,500, estimates Energy Policy Lead Shaz Merwat. Also read our report on how smart homes can unlock grid efficiencies.

Gathering wind in the Atlantic

Newfoundland and Labrador could be among the major drivers of wind power in Canada. The Canada Energy Regulator’s latest projections (Canada’s Energy Future 2026 ) expects the Atlantic province to emerge as an offshore wind powerhouse, accounting for a sizeable chunk of new wind power capacity by 2050, along with Alberta.

Shaz Merwat examines the Atlantic province’s wind prospects:

  • Wind, primarily offshore, could make up 13.3 gigawatts of electricity capacity by 2050 in the province, from negligible numbers today, according to CER’s base case (which it calls its Current Measures Scenario).

  • The province’s total electricity capacity is set to triple, with 98% from renewables by 2050 (compared to around 87% today).

  • The CER is betting big on Newfoundland. The province has world-class wind conditions but virtually no wind industry at present, and given some major setbacks involving planned green hydrogen demand anchors recently, it likely presents more market risk.

  • Offshore wind development is also constrained by deep water and floating turbine costs. The transmission corridor needed to move power to the Quebec market remains a multi-billion-dollar proposal without a final investment decision, but will be needed if NL is to build upon its hydro exports to Quebec and Atlantic Canada scaled for wind.

  • Alberta could present another challenge to Canada’s effort to ramp up wind power. The province has the resource and the grid as Canada’s largest wind producer. But new wind investment has essentially frozen, the result of policy uncertainty that has yet to thaw.

  • Wind’s build up rides heavily on Alberta and Newfoundland that are expected to add about 16 GW and 13 GW, respectively, in the CER’s base scenario, accounting for much of the 72 GW of capacity additions by 2050 across Canada.

  • By 2050, wind is expected to account for 30% of Canada’s total generative capacity, compared to just 11% in 2025, according to the CER outlook.

Ottawa and Alberta’s big methane deal

By Vivan Sorab

Ottawa and Alberta’s recent agreement-in-principle on methane equivalency sets the stage for Alberta to regulate methane its own way.

Cutting methane emission is considered one of the lowest-cost, highest-impact action levers available for near-term climate progress. Methane has roughly 80 times the warming impact of carbon dioxide over a 20-year period, and accounts for nearly a quarter of the Canadian oil and gas sector’s total greenhouse gas emissions.

The equivalency deal suspends Ottawa’s Enhanced Methane Regulations and allows Alberta to implement its own performance-based approach, comprising a mix of provincial regulations, offset credits, and targeted investments, with methane modelling, emissions reductions analysis, and reduction results overseen by a jointly appointed and cost-shared third party.

Alberta's methane management has improved but flaring remains elevated

New provincial rules will take effect on January 1, 2027, and the agreement would run for a decade, replacing the current equivalency agreement, which is set to expire in October 2030. If reductions fall short, Alberta has committed to corrective action.

Here are some insights:

  • There’s real momentum behind this. Alberta has already cut methane emissions by more than 50% from 2014 levels, backed by roughly $172 million in reduction technology investments since 2019 and more than 58,000 low- or no-bleed devices installed through the province’s carbon-offset system.

  • Agreement to third-party emissions verification is an important step given previous discrepancies between industry-reported figures and independent studies.

  • The 2035 target extends Alberta’s timeline for compliance by five years relative to existing federal methane regulations, while raising the compliance threshold to 75% reductions versus 72% previously.

  • Canada’s methane mitigation sector has grown to more than 130 firms. Compliance actions under federal regulations could generate 34,000 jobs from 2027 to 2040, according to one estimate.

  • Companies looking to position ahead of the compliance date could leverage this rapidly evolving technology suite, including a specific focus on monitoring and measurement, such as through facility-level monitoring, and satellite- and aircraft-based detection technologies.

  • A draft equivalency agreement is expected later this year, followed by a 60-day public consultation, with both sides aiming to finalize it by year-end.

  • Two other Canada-Alberta MoU commitments, namely industrial carbon pricing equivalency and a trilateral agreement with Pathways Alliance partners, remain outstanding.

Ottawa and Alberta are betting that cooperative, outcome-based regulation can deliver both rising oil and gas production and falling emissions. Whether the details hold up to scrutiny will determine if this model becomes a blueprint.

Conversations

  • British Columbia dropped its EV sales target to 75% by 2035 (from 100%) to align with federal goals. The Pembina Institute’s Adam Thorn is “encouraged”, but Brian Kingston, CEO at Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association, is “disappointed” that B.C. is sticking to its provincial EV mandate.

  • New Westminster wants to avoid another “heat dome” episode: After the B.C. city had the highest fatality rate during the 2021 heat dome, it became the first Canadian city to pass a maximum heat bylaw, requiring landlords to keep at least one room in a rented apartment at or below 26 C. “While imperfect… this is a recognition that more heat waves are coming, and we all need to adapt,” says Colin Chan, Executive Director of B.C.’s Provincial Health Service Authority.

  • Solar hit a tipping point. “Overall, solar has already been cheaper than fossil power for a while, but upfront costs used to be higher,” says Nicolas Fulghum, senior energy and climate data analyst at Ember.

  • Fast follow: Jesse Jenkins, Associate Professor of Energy Policy at Princeton University, is the most influential digital voice in U.S. clean energy. Here’s a list of the other 99 influential U.S. climate heavyweights.

Curated by Yadullah Hussain, Managing Editor, RBC Climate Action Institute.

Climate Crunch would not be possible without John Stackhouse, Jordan Brennan, John Intini, Farhad Panahov, Lisa Ashton, Shaz Merwat, Vivan Sorab, Caprice Biasoni, Lavanya Kaleeswaran and Joelle Schonberg .

Have a comment, commendation, or umm, criticism? Write to me here (yadullahhussain@rbc.com)

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I was in Houston this week for CERAWeek, the so-called Super Bowl of Energy, for a series of intense, and informative, discussions about the current global energy crisis. Last year, the forum was all ears as the new Trump administration laid out its plans for “energy dominance.” This year, the forum was all about the dominant energy crisis unleashed by the Iran war.

1. Watch for the aftershocks

The prevailing view was the conflict — and dangers in the Persian Gulf — will continue for some time, and energy markets will struggle to find a new normal. Former Defence Secretary James Mattis, who has fought three wars in and around the Gulf, said the U.S. cannot declare unilateral victory. Even though Iran’s navy is destroyed, it can deploy anti-ship cruise missiles from its 1,000-kilometre coastline. That means a longer conflict than was first anticipated, and more economic reverberations as supply chains stay gummed up. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is down 70%, with 850+ tankers stuck in the crosshairs. It will take weeks just to move that traffic — one reason the IEA called this the “greatest global energy and food security challenge in history.”

2. Oil gets the attention; gas causes the pain

The LNG market disruption is not a temporary shock. QatarEnergy’s CEO confirmed that about 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity will be offline for years, with billions of dollars in repairs required. LNG margins are already 200% higher on average for 2026 through 2028. New supply from Australia, Canada, and the U.S. will now just replace the losses, rather than add to supply growth. That means a return to pre-war LNG supply levels is unlikely before late 2027 at the earliest. Analysts at S&P Global Energy expect losses of up to 35 million tonnes of LNG in 2026 — enough to cover half of Japan’s annual imports.

3. Next, food

The World Food Programme warned as many as 45 million more people could fall into acute food insecurity if the conflict doesn’t end soon — a crisis that rivals Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. One big reason: 30% of global urea trade comes out of Iran and Hormuz-constrained countries, and fertilizer exports from the Persian Gulf have dropped precipitously, driving up prices globally and threatening spring planting seasons. Bunker and cargo costs are up 4x in Europe, adding to the transport nightmare. Agriculture input prices have nearly doubled in Egypt. Fertilizer plants in India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan have had to stop production entirely as natural gas and oil prices spiked — and unlike in 2022, there are few alternatives. India cut output from three of its urea plants. Bangladesh shut four out of its five fertilizer factories.

4.  Alarms across Asia

The Strait is the only sea route for 93% of Japan’s oil imports, prompting Tokyo to begin releasing 80 million barrels of oil from its strategic reserves. Japan’s LNG buffer is considerably thinner — Japanese companies hold only about three weeks of LNG inventory, equivalent to the total volume of their Hormuz-dependent LNG imports. Taiwan and South Korea are as severely threatened. In South Asia, fuel rationing is well underway. Pakistan and Bangladesh rely on Qatar for roughly half of their LNG imports. Asian LNG spot prices have surged 143% since February 28.

5. Emerging market risks

Rising debt costs and higher import prices have always been a curse for developing countries, especially those that leveraged foreign credit and energy to stimulate growth. In several African economies, energy and transport account for 15-25% of inflation. The Asian Development Bank has identified the Philippines, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka as the most vulnerable in that region. Ripples will be felt in low-cost manufacturing belts, too, as input costs — petroleum-based plastics, for instance — rise. All that will put pressure on indebted countries to borrow more to subsidize consumers and industry, just as interest costs are rising again. In Uzbekistan, Egypt and Mongolia, fuel subsidies account for 28.3%, 28.0% and 11.9% of government spending, respectively. Those dependent on tourism, such as Kenya and Sri Lanka, may be further challenged.

6. A new moment for data centres

It’s widely viewed that power demand from AI-driven data centres will continue to surge, and there won’t be enough gas to run them. Big Tech companies like Google and Microsoft are developing plans to use nuclear, even reviving mothballed plants in the U.S. But that will take years. Data centres now account for 4% of U.S. electricity, and projections are it’s heading to 12%. It’s not just a U.S. and Chinese phenomenon. Asian countries like the Philippines have ambitious data centre strategies, predicated on more imported gas to run them, but will now need that gas — at a much higher cost — to keep factories and the AC running. The supply-demand imbalance doesn’t compute.

7. A new moment for #EVs

The energy shock has put a new light on China’s ambitions to sell EVs to the world, especially the developing world — if those energy-dependent countries can find new ways to electrify their fleets. Currently about 60% of the world’s pure EVs are sold in China. Will the energy shock shift growth? That will take time, especially for countries facing a host of other challenges to build out electric infrastructure. Expect most countries to have both gas- and electric-powered cars for a long time — even the U.S. Fordmotor Co used the Houston forum to promote its strategy for a new electric pick-up truck, being developed at a skunk works plant in California. The truck’s appeal is its simplicity more than its energy needs. The new vehicles use a fraction of the components (it’s all battery) and a fraction of the internal wiring, making it far easier and cheaper to make. U.S. automakers are also learning from China on how to build vehicles as tech platforms. The biggest question in Ford CEO Jim Farley’s mind: How will Americans react? As Ford knows, cars are culture.

8. New frontiers for drilling

It’s early days — and lots of contingencies are emerging — but as much as 10 million barrels a day of production may be lost this year due to the conflict. That’s roughly 10% of global needs. There are plenty of oil fields that can replace that — just not quickly or efficiently.  Take Venezuela. Its recent increase of 250,000 barrels per day over 2026 represents less than 0.3% of global consumption. Neighbouring Guyana offers more hope, as does Brazil, Nigeria and even Libya. But all those together don’t get anywhere near the missing barrels. There was chatter  at CERAWeek about a return to Alaska drilling, North Sea exploration and even Norway’s Far North. Canadian production is expected to increase, too, including offshore opportunities in Newfoundland and Labrador. But most eyes are on Russia. It may have 80 million barrels of oil currently on the open seas, and a multiple of that ready to go.

9. Canada’s pitch

Energy Minister Timothy Hodgson didn’t mince words. Canada will produce and export a lot more oil and gas, He even put numbers on it: 2.5 million more barrels a day of oil (a 50% increase) and 100 billion cubic feet of gas (double projections) by 2035. He told various audiences that Indigenous support has rarely been stronger for resource development, in part because most big resource projects now have indigenous ownership. Premier Danielle Smith told one audience an agreement between Ottawa and Alberta on carbon pricing is coming and will be critical to long-term contracts. It can also underpin plans for a massive investment in carbon capture and storage, something the Carney government remains insistent on. Behind closed doors, sovereign wealth funds, multinationals and state corporations lined up to advance negotiations for long-term contracts and equity stakes. A universal question among them: Can #Canada execute this time at speed and scale?

John Stackhouse is Senior Vice-President, Office of the CEO, RBC Thought Leadership

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This article is a companion to the Disruptors episode on how Wikipedia platform built credibility through community, transparency and a shared commitment to neutrality – Trust at Scale: Lessons from Wikipedia

Something has shifted in how people relate to institutions. Across the OECD, more people now distrust their national government than trust it. In Canada, only 48% express confidence in the federal government, down from the high 50s before the pandemic.1 An Ipsos survey captured the trajectory: trust in government to do what is right fell from 58% in 2019 to 43% by 2022.2 Meanwhile, the 2025 CanTrust Index found that politicians are trusted by just 17% of Canadians, the lowest in a decade of tracking, and 6 in 10 say political parties are divisive forces.3

Social media and AI-generated content have accelerated the decline, with nearly half of Canadians now believing that AI will make information sources less trustworthy. Algorithms reward outrage over accuracy, flooding public discourse with polarizing content and AI-generated noise. As Jimmy Wales, the co-founder of Wikipedia, observed on a recent RBC Disruptors podcast, platforms incentivize bad behaviour through engagement: “you act like a jerk and you get engagement.”4

Wales’ latest book Seven Rules of Trust—A Blueprint for Building Things That Last, focuses on the global crisis of credibility and knowledge. Both are in short supply: The 2026 Edelman Trust Barometer found 73% of Canadians unwilling to trust someone with different values or information sources.5

The consequences of mistrust are far-reaching and having real impact: In Slovakia’s 2023 election, a deepfake audio clip impersonating a political party leader went viral during a legally mandated campaign silence period, leaving journalists no window to respond.6 In the United States, an AI-generated robocall mimicking President Joe Biden urged New Hampshire voters to stay home during the 2024 primary.7 Similar incidents surfaced in Bangladesh, Turkey, and India. The German Marshall Fund tracked 133 deepfake incidents tied to elections across dozens of countries.8

Wikipedia: An architectural proof of concept

Wikipedia makes for an instructive model. The free online encyclopedia covers more than seven million English-language articles, roughly 283,000 active editors, and billions of page views annually—all on a non-profit budget. It’s the go-to site for many to source everything from a storied company’s corporate history to oddities and obscure records.

For all its variety, it’s far from perfect: critics flag ideological biases, gender gaps among editors, and vulnerability to paid manipulation. But as Wales noted on the podcast, Wikipedia has gone “from being kind of a joke to one of the few things people trust.”

The reason is structural. Wikipedia’s model is “accountability, not gatekeeping,” Wales told RBC’s Disruptors podcast.9 “Everything you edit, everybody can see what you’ve done.” Every source is checkable, disputes happen on public talk pages, and corrections happen in real time.

Wales’s thinking was shaped early by Nobel-prizewinning philosopher Friedrich Hayek’s argument about decentralized knowledge—the idea that decision-making works best at the endpoints, not through a central hierarchy. Wales pointed to X’s Community Notes as a promising application of the same principle: empowering users rather than relying on top-down moderation.

Where this leaves Canada

Research going back to Knack and Keefer’s 1997 study confirms that trust is a measurable input to growth.10 A Deloitte analysis by chief global economist Ira Kalish makes the mechanism concrete: a rise in trust increases the quantity of business fixed investment, and it raises productivity through higher-quality investments, human capital accumulation, and greater internationalization.11

The consultancy’s modelling suggests a ten-percentage-point increase in the share of trusting people within a country raises annual per capita GDP growth by about half a percentage point: a substantial gain when global growth averaged 2.2 percent between 2015 and 2019.

There is no single fix to restore trust in corporate and public sector governance. But as the Disruptors’ conversation with Wales highlighted, trust is not a moral decoration. The work of rebuilding it will be slow, uneven, and ongoing. But the cost of not starting is already measurable.

Sabreena Shukul is a Research Assistant at RBC Thought Leadership

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What you need to know about the West’s struggle to break China’s dominant role in rare-earth elements refining—and the technologies that could break Beijing’s hold

The West has ceded critical minerals processing to China–and rebuilding that capacity in a way that is environmentally permittable, economically viable, and scalable within Western regulatory frameworks is a defining industrial challenge of the decade.

Why processing went to China

China controls 70% of the global refining market share for 19 of the world’s 20 most critical minerals; across minerals such as rare-earth elements that figure is north of 90%. This dominance is the compounding effect of three structural forces, each reinforcing the other over time.

Economics. China’s historically low labour costs, energy subsidies, and state-backed industrial policy built a cost structure that undercut Western processors at prevailing commodity prices.

Environment. Conventional rare earth processing relies on sulphuric acid baking, multi-stage leaching, and solvent extraction, generating toxic waste streams and radioactive tailings. According to a Harvard analysis, for every tonne of rare earth output, conventional processing produces roughly 2,000 tonnes of toxic waste. Western jurisdictions internalize those costs through permitting, environmental liability, and community opposition.

Industrial ecosystem. As China’s processing capacity scaled, it drew in engineering talent, downstream manufacturers, and end-use demand—each reinforcing the next. As Western processing retreated over the last 40 years, financial markets stopped funding, institutions stopped training, and downstream manufacturers defaulted to Chinese supply. China accumulated the opposite—four decades of process knowledge, engineering expertise, and refining IP that enforces a barrier to Western re-entry.

The environmental opportunity and technology response

Rebuilding Western processing capacity by replicating China’s model runs into the same barriers that caused offshoring. Arguably it’s now compounded by China’s October 2025 export controls on processing equipment and technology. A more tractable path confronts the environmental liabilities of conventional methods directly—and in doing so, also improves the economics.

Grant and procurement decisions offer a reasonable proxy for which processing approaches have cleared basic viability thresholds. The U.S. Department of War, Department of Energy, and the Government of Canada have directed meaningful capital toward next-generation critical minerals processing since 2022.

Waste and tailings. New processing approaches—including flash heating and modular ion-exchange systems—substantially reduce or eliminate waste streams, making projects permittable where conventional processing would not be.

Canadian firm Ucore Rare Metals is a case in point. Its RapidSX platform is a column-based solvent extraction system for rare earth separation that runs approximately three times faster than conventional mixer-settler systems, with a smaller physical footprint and no Chinese equipment or technology. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) awarded US$4 million for Ucore’s Kingston, Ontario, demonstration facility, followed by US$18 million toward its Louisiana Strategic Metals Complex. The Government of Canada committed $36 million at the G7 resource ministers meeting in October 2025 to support refining of samarium and gadolinium.

Emissions. Decarbonizing processing is mainly a question of energy source: replacing fossil-fuel-fired kilns and furnaces with electrically powered alternatives—particularly hydro or other clean sources—solves the emissions problem and improves economics given falling clean electricity costs. Most global critical mineral refining runs on coal-heavy Chinese grids. Processing on hydroelectric power, as Quebec offers, materially changes the emissions profile of the same output.

Australia-based Metallium Resources Inc. is working on a solution to transform metal recovery and recycling waste through flash joule heating—millisecond electrical pulses to heat material above 3,000 degrees Celsius, extracting metals selectively without acid or water. The U.S. DoW provided an initial gallium-focused grant and selected the technology as a processing step in a DoW-funded red mud recovery project in Louisiana. Metallium’s Texas demonstration plant has been commissioned, with feedstock supply secured through a binding agreement with commodity firm Glencore plc.

Recycling. The IEA finds recycled energy transition minerals such as nickel, cobalt, and lithium produce on average 80% fewer greenhouse gas emissions than primary mined material. Recycling rates for rare-earth elements and lithium remain below 5% globally, yet feedstock is accumulating fast: spent EV batteries, end-of-life wind turbine magnets, and electronic waste from AI infrastructure all carry recoverable critical metal content.

The EU has institutionalized recycling demand through binding regulation. Under EU Battery Regulation 2023/1542, manufacturers face minimum recycled content requirements. These are enforceable compliance thresholds—not targets. They create a structural demand signal for recovered materials that current processing infrastructure cannot meet.

ReElement Technologies is aiming to turn scrap into mining stock. A subsidiary of American Resources Corp, ReElement runs a modular ion-exchange and solvent-based refining platform processing rare earth magnet scrap and lithium-ion battery black mass into high-purity separated products. The platform accepts multiple feedstock types without Chinese primary concentrates. ReElement has received DoD and Department of Energy funding as part of the U.S.’s effort to establish domestic rare earth and battery metal refining capacity.

Challenging China’s rare-earth refining dominance will take time, but the funding of experimental technologies, backed by policy focus and support, suggests that the transition is finally underway.

Critical Minerals Processing: The West’s Refining Challenge and the Technologies Closing the Gap - download the report

Download the report

Shaz Merwat is Energy Policy Lead at RBC Thought Leadership

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➔ Canada charts new scenarios for a new energy era

➔ The small switcheroo that revolutionized energy efficiency

➔ A handbook for climate hopefuls

Signals

What happens to coffee farms when pest-controlling bats disappear? The world is waking up to the fact that biodiversity impacts everything from your morning cup of Joe to corporate bottom lines. Recently, 152 member governments, including Canada, backed the IPBES Business & Biodiversity Assessment report. It’s groundbreaking research as more than half of the world’s economy, roughly US$78 trillion, depends on nature, from food to tourism to construction, according to RBC research. One of the IPBES report’s key takeaways: align fiscal policies and financial flows with biodiversity and sustainability goals. However, muted mainstream media coverage suggests the message of nature as an asset—and shield—has yet to resonate with a mass business audience. For more, read Unearthing Value: How nature can play a critical role in pro-growth agendas

It’s a light-bulb moment for energy efficiency. While the global built floor area grew 20% over the past decade, lighting electricity use remained stable—in no small part to the humble LEDs, which are nearly 12 times more efficient than halogen lamps. Without them, the world would have gobbled up 800 TWh more electricity—exceeding Africa’s annual electricity consumption, the International Energy Agency estimates. Significant potential remains: 30% of lamps in South America and parts of Asia-Pacific (excluding China and India) still need upgrades, while replacing aging first-generation LEDs would further conserve power watts.

Nuclear’s making a climate comeback. The low-carbon electricity technology underlies some of the world’s cleanest grids and could help decarbonize several industries, says Vivan Sorab, our Clean Tech Policy Lead. France’s electricity grid emits just 22 gCO2/kWh, one of the lowest in the world, as nuclear supplies 65% of the country’s power. Ontario’s grid saw emissions intensity rise to 74 gCO2/kWh in 2024 over the previous year as nuclear refurbishments and demand growth necessitated more natural gas in the system. Small modular reactors (SMRs) could extend nuclear’s climate logic beyond the grid. Carbon-intensive industries like heavy oil extraction and petrochemicals require high-temperature steam that renewables are struggling to deliver on their own. SMRs could eventually provide both electricity and industrial process heat, making them one of the few technologies that can help hard-to-decarbonize sectors. For more on nuclear, read Atomic Advantage: Canada’s generational opportunity in a new Nuclear Age.


Canada’s message from CERAWeek

By John Stackhouse, Senior Vice-President, Office of the CEO

John Stackhouse at CERAWeek

The climate contingent at this week’s big CERAWeek energy conference in Houston could be forgiven for a bit of dizziness. It’s not just the bayou city’s humidity (early) or the marathon TSA lineups at Bush International (late); the tenor on climate action felt a bit 180. 

Two years ago, Joe Biden’s energy secretary Jennifer Granholm was here to explain the administration’s LNG pause. On Monday, Donald Trump’s energy secretary Chris Wright stood on the same stage to explain plans to double LNG production this decade.

It’s not just the White House that has changed climate colours. Delegations from dozens of countries came to Houston to plead for more of everything—especially natural gas. The Japanese—home to Kyoto and a lot of climate innovation—were at the front of the queue, explaining they can no longer rely on Qatar and a few others for the gas that powers their island economy. (Remember the nuclear shut down, post-Fukushima.)

The U.S. is now working to supply Japan and other allies with as much gas and oil as it can muster. And it looks like a lot of that will come from Canada.

When it comes to oil, Canada covers two-thirds of the gap between U.S. production (12 million barrels a day) and consumption (20 million). We supply an even bigger share of Americans’ gas in a range of states.

Energy Minister Tim Hodgson came to Houston to tell the world that the federal government is committed to seeing oil production increase by 2.5 million barrels a day — a 50% jump — and doubling LNG exports from what’s now planned. Can that massive increase be done in line with climate commitments?

I posed the question to Hodgson and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith in a conversation I moderated at Canada House, as part of the conference. They expressed strong alignment (so much so that Smith called herself the environmental spokesperson for Carney’s energy policy). They then honed in on three words: methane, carbon pricing and Pathways.

Their governments later that day unveiled an agreement on methane emissions that will help keep Canada, and Alberta, on a path to net zero (“carbon neutrality” is Smith’s preferred measure). Industrial carbon pricing is thornier, although it may get solved by extending some timelines.

The big nut is Pathways, which Hodgson called “the biggest carbon capture project in the world” and would make all those new barrels much more carbon efficient. Cost is another matter. Ottawa thinks Pathways could cost as little as 50 cents a barrel, which it sees as a deal for the industry if it secures a 50% increase in production. Industry people here see the cost to be higher, although there’s some hope that possible investments from Canadian pension funds would reduce long-term capital costs.

We can expect more on all this next week, when the Ottawa-Alberta MOU on energy hits its key milestone date of April 1. The global crisis may cause some delays, and lead to further adjustments. But the message in Houston from Ottawa and Alberta was clear: more production and lower emissions is the new Canadian plan.

New scenarios for a new energy era

By Shaz Merwat, Energy Policy Lead

Electrification is going to be Canada’s key climate enabler. Electricity generation is expected to be up 50% by 2050, with renewables making up 91% of the grid (compared to 79% today), according to Canada Energy Regulator’s latest traditional scenario, which it labels as Current Measures.

While net-zero by 2050 remains a challenging aspiration, the economy is also forecast to advance towards lower-carbon sources. With carbon-intensive coal almost out of the equation, and crude oil production growth easing, fossil- fuel growth will be driven by the relatively lower emissions natural gas: By 2050, natural gas will account for 43% of total oil and gas production—compared to 36% today.

Canada's energy & emissions trajectory

Published two weeks into the war on Iran—what could prove to be one of the most cataclysmic energy events of this century—the report offers multiple paths for Canadian energy and electricity growth and emissions contraction.

  • Canada is moving beyond net zero: This year’s edition retains the Current Measures and Canada Net-Zero Scenarios from Canada’s Energy Future 2023 (EF2023), but adds Higher and Lower Cases that bracket the baseline by varying economic growth, liquefied natural exports, data centre demand, and global energy prices—offering a more plausible ±20% range of outcomes rather than anchoring the analysis around net zero by 2050 as the only destination.

  • Emissions will decline around 14% by 2050. GHG emissions under Current Measures are lower in EF2026 at every point—but a net-zero Canadian economy is nowhere on the horizon. By 2050, EF2026 projects 546 megatonnes (Mt) versus 566 Mt in EF2023, reflecting better near-term decarbonization from policies already in place, particularly in the electricity sector.

  • Sun and wind power will power the grid. Electricity generation under Current Measures is broadly similar across both reports. By 2050, total generation reaches approximately 975 Terawatt-hour (TWh) in the Energy Futures 2026 report compared to 972 TWh (EF2023). The more notable divergence is in the renewables share: EF2026 projects a faster ramp-up, reaching 91% non-emitting generation by 2050 versus 86% in EF2023, with stronger growth from 2035 onward.

  • Canada’s kicking the peak oil can down the road. Oil production is consistent near-term but EF2026 is notably more conservative in the medium term. By 2035, EF2026 projects ~6.0 million barrels per day (bpd) versus 6.5 million bpd in EF2023—converging closer by 2050 at 5.9 versus 6.3 million bpd by 2050. Peak oil production has been pushed out seven years, to 2042 from 2035 prior. The High Scenario projects oil production soaring to 6.4 million bpd.

  • …and firing up natural gas. EF2026 projects substantially higher output in every time horizon, reaching 26.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) by 2050 versus 21.5 bcfd in EF2023—a 25% increase—driven largely by new LNG export assumptions baked into the 2026 modelling.

  • Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) volumes will likely be marginal. While not specifically broken out in the forecast, about 4% of Canada’s total power generation will be from carbon-captured natural gas in the Current Measures scenario.Total oil and gas emissions are expected to be 176 MT in 2050, down 12% vs 199 MT as modelled in 2025, on the back of a 5% increase in oil and gas production (5.9 million bpd by 2050, compared to 5.6 million bpd in 2025).

  • Canada is trailing peers: Within a global context, under Current Measures, Canada’s emissions decline from 694 Mt in 2023 (latest available data) to 562 Mt by 2035 is a 23% reduction from its 2005 baseline of approximately 730 Mt. That puts Canada marginally behind the U.S., where Rhodium Group projects a 26–35% reduction below 2005 levels by 2035. Both trail the EU considerably—the EU is on track for roughly a 45–47% reduction by 2035 under current and planned measures. All three are falling short of net-zero without additional policy action.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

A handbook for climate hopefuls

Fred Pearce, a UK-based science writer and public speaker, who has authored a few ominously titled books over the years: When the Rivers Run Dry, The Land Grabbers and With Speed and Violence, has a change of tone with Despite it All: A Handbook for Climate Hopefuls. In it, heaims to tell stories about “hope amid the gloom.”

Here’s an excerpt from a short email exchange:

What makes you hopeful?
We remain in deep peril. Every tonne of greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere sticks around for centuries. But my hope lies in the extraordinary progress we have made technically. China, and increasingly India and other fast-developing countries, are adopting solar power as their default source of energy, because it is so cheap. That was unimaginable even 20 years ago. The Chinese are now transforming the cost of batteries so we can store the sun’s energy, rather than just tapping it real-time. We are entering the solar age. It is economics now, not politics, that is making the difference. Whether it is happening fast enough remains as issue. But it is happening.

One of the reasons you give for your optimism are smaller families and an ageing population—but isn’t that going to impact economic growth and government’s ability to support citizens?
 It’s a new kind of population bomb. The fear is of a growing number of aged economic “dependents”, and fewer people of working age to support them. Ageing could also slow economic activity by undermining innovation from young go-getters. We have to rethink the old: see them as a source of wisdom and knowledge, as carers as well as the cared for. I am 74 now and still working, so I would say that! But let’s also remember we have fewer children to care for, and today most women are economically active, not at home to bring up the kids.

What worries you the most?
Cliff-edges, points of no return. Melting ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctic and the resulting rising sea levels may soon be unstoppable—even if temperatures come back down. Deforestation in the Amazon may be near the point where lack of trees dries out the air so the remaining trees die off. And the ocean circulation system could be close to collapse, switching off the Gulf Stream.  Then there is melting permafrost unleashing methane, a potent greenhouse gas that would supercharge warming. Again, unstoppable. Science cannot tell us yet where or when we may trigger such tipping points. So even as we make remarkable ground in ending our addiction to carbon-based fuels, my fear is it could be too late to avoid these great regime shifts. We may be lucky; we may not.

Conversations

  • Failure to value and account for natural assets are among the four barriersholding back climate adaptation initiatives in Canada,write C.D. Howe senior fellow James Stewart and Anabela Bonada, managing director at the Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation, University of Waterloo.

  • Gavin Mooney at the Energy Transition Advisor explores how rapid solar power deployment helped Pakistan cushion its crushing dependence on Middle East natural gas.

  • Canada is entering one of the largest electricity buildouts in its history. If it’s going to succeed, Indigenous Nations must be at the centre—not on the sidelines, write Kwatuuma Cole Sayers and Blake Shaffer in an op-ed.

  • As energy systems are struggling to transform in the face of climate change, Justice in Canada’s Energy Transition report asserts that justice and equity are central to making a low-carbon economy sustainable, writes Julie MacArthur, a co-editor of the report.

  • “Excessive heat warnings, red flag warnings for wildfire conditions, and monthly temperature records being shattered yet again… this is easily one of the most anomalous out-of-season heatwaves that I’ve observed,” says climate scientist Zachary Labe about the current season.

Curated by Yadullah Hussain, Managing Editor, RBC Climate Action Institute.

Climate Crunch would not be possible without John Stackhouse, Jordan Brennan, John Intini, Farhad Panahov, Lisa Ashton, Shaz Merwat, Vivan Sorab, Caprice Biasoni, Lavanya Kaleeswaran and Joelle Schonberg .

Have a comment, commendation, or umm, criticism? Write to me here (yadullahhussain@rbc.com)

Climate Crunch Newsletter

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This article is a companion to the Disruptors episode on sports technology – Tech wins Gold: How Canada can rebuild its Olympic pipeline.

On November 1, 1959, three minutes into a game at Madison Square Garden, a shot by New York Ranger forward Andy Bathgate broke Jacques Plante’s nose. The Montreal Canadiens’ goalie left the ice, received several stitches, and returned wearing a fiberglass mask he had moulded himself. Montreal won 3–1 and went on an 18-game unbeaten streak. From then on, Plante refused to play without one. Within a decade, every goalie in the league had followed his lead. Plante was not trying to disrupt anything. He had simply decided that stopping a frozen puck with his face was a problem worth solving—and that impulse, identify a problem, build a solution, let the results speak for themselves, has been a through-line in Canadian sport ever since.

A sector with real economic weight

The global sport tech market was valued at roughly US$19 billion in 2024 and growing about 20% annually. Canada has a US$450-million share, a little more than 3%, and an annual growth rate of nearly 19% ranking among the fastest of any national market. Yet, on the funding side, Canada is treating sport and sport technology as a discretionary expense. As Canadian Olympic Committee CEO David Shoemaker notes in a recent episode of Disruptors, peer countries are “out‑investing [Canada] at the federal level, five, six, 10 times.” Germany alone is putting “about a billion dollars a year into sport.”

What the ecosystem has produced

Toronto Metropolitan University’s Future of Sport Lab, launched with Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment (MLSE) in 2015 as one of North America’s first sport tech incubators, has helped launch companies that have collectively raised more than $100 million.

That includes Montreal’s Sportlogiq, co-founded by former Olympic figure skater Craig Buntin, which has developed computer vision technology now trusted by almost every NHL team. And Rapsodo and 3Motion AI, which are putting biomechanical coaching tools into the hands of club-level athletes and local coaches. Tools that are now accessible through a portable device or a smartphone app.

The pattern that needs to be broken

The issue with Canada’s sport tech story has never been what gets built. But what happens after it does. Sportlogiq was acquired by U.S.-based Teamworks in January 2026. Halifax-founded Kinduct, whose athlete‑management platform was used by more than 550 teams and organizations worldwide, was bought by Silicon Valley’s mCube in 2020, in what its founder called the largest sport tech exit in Canadian history.

The cycle is familiar: public research dollars seed the company, which proves its technology at global scale, before getting snapped up by foreign owners that provide the commercial infrastructure that Canada lacks. The same pattern is emerging in human capital. On Disruptors, Jennifer Heil, Canada’s chef de mission for Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics and founder of a performance‑tech startup, describes “a moment of total brain drain” in high‑performance sport, with top scientists and nutritionists shifting their time to the United States because “we can’t afford them right now.”

Where the stakes are highest

Three-quarters of Canada’s medallists at Milano Cortina were 30 or older. The bench strength is thinning, with Speed Skating Canada’s World Cup roster dropping from 24 to 16. Close to half of Canadian families report that organized sport is too expensive, and athletes at the national level pay as much as $25,000 out of pocket to represent their country.

Sport technology can address the problem directly. RBC Training Ground identified gymnast Marion Thénault at 17 with no skiing background; within five years she had won Olympic bronze. AI-assisted talent identification could replicate that kind of discovery at scale, reaching communities that traditional scouting never will.

Shoemaker imagines that scaled through AI: “Show us how you jump, how you run, how you throw—and we’ll tell you what sport you should sign up for at your local club.” Heil’s own startup, Revel, is built on the idea that AI can “democratize access” to elite coaching knowledge once reserved for Olympians.

And keeping the companies that build those tools Canadian-owned means keeping the returns: the jobs, the intellectual property, the platform revenue, stay here as well.

What it comes down to

The sector has the companies and the research infrastructure. It lacks the domestic capital to keep them scaling at home, as well as a national strategy that pairs the products with the young athletes that need them.

That gap is visible in the public system itself: national sport organizations have not seen a core‑funding increase since 2005, and Shoemaker notes that some athletes now face team fees of as much as $30,000. A national strategy for sport tech could treat data, infrastructure and talent identification as long‑term capital investment.

Sabreena Shukul is a Research Assistant at RBC Thought Leadership