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Despite recent crop and export volume hitting records, a key risk to the Canadian grain sector is its ability to move its products to overseas markets efficiently and reliably. Infrastructure—particularly rail networks and port terminals—isn’t keeping pace with the growth of bulk commodities like wheat and canola. The risks of disruption leaves money on the table for farmers and limits investment and business opportunities—all while Canada seeks to diversify and expand its trade.

Targeted infrastructure investments can mitigate the risks of disruption and congestion, but that requires agriculture to receive the same focus as other critical sectors in the nation’s conversation about competitiveness and growth. 

Export Development Canada notes that the country’s infrastructure investment trails many OECD peers, and the ratio of infrastructure investments to trade volumes has been falling.1 Canada has an overall infrastructure deficit ranging from between $110 billion to $270 billion,2 and investments for railways and seaports needed by 2070 are estimated at $284 billion and $110 billion, respectively.3

  • The agriculture and agri-food sector contributes more than $150 billion to GDP and supports 2.3 million jobs. It is export-dependent, sending more than $100 billion in agriculture products to international markets, making it the 9th largest globally.4

  • The ranking follows a decades-long story of crop productivity gains, both in efficiency and absolute terms. Since 2000, Canadian wheat production has grown by an annual average of 3.9%, and canola yields by annual average 3.4%, meaning farmers are getting more output from the same area of land.5


  • The U.S. accounts for more than 60% of Canada’s agri-food exports1. As Canada looks to become less reliant on a single customer across all sectors, more agri-food export sales will have to come from overseas markets in Asia and Europe, with commodities primarily shipping through the west coast.

  • The Port of Vancouver moved a record 170 million metric tons of cargo in 2025, 30 million of which were bulk grains. Prince Rupert is also a growing western alternative corridor, handling 26 million metric tons of goods in 2025, up 14% from the year prior.6

Canada’s port and rail network is strained with several bottlenecks, with a history of disruptions:  

  • The 57-year-old Second Narrows Rail Bridge is the crossing for 50% of the country’s grain production that moves through the port, and nearly a third of all cargo. It is the key rail path to the North Shore terminal for servicing grains, potash, and coal. In February 2026, the bridge was locked in its down position due to a mechanical problem, which halted ships access to the inlet for four days.  

    Second Narrows Rail Bridge: Critical chokepoint connecting shipments to the Port of Vancouver's North Shore terminals operated by G3, Cargill, and Richards, as well as Neptune potash and coal terminals

    Figure 2. Second Narrows Rail Bridge: Critical chokepoint connecting shipments to the Port of Vancouver’s North Shore terminals operated by G3, Cargill, and Richards, as well as Neptune potash and coal terminals

  • U.S. ports offer alternative export terminals for some commodities, particularly potash, for several reasons—favourable labour conditions and less port congestion among them. This is leading some Canadian businesses to consider large terminal investments on U.S. shores, rather than Canada. Bulk Canadian grain has no such relief for overseas markets and moves almost exclusively through Canadian ports, creating vulnerabilities at the country’s critical choke points. 

  • Labour issues can also come into play. In 2024, a four-day Grain Workers Union strike cost the sector an estimated $35 million per day in stalled export shipments.7 These vulnerabilities lead to lower profits for farmers and more hesitation from international buyers.  

  • If a significant disruption shuts down either Canadian National Railway Company (CN) or Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) railways for a single week, the estimated economic damage to the grain industry from lost sales, contract penalties and other costs could reach $250 million8.

  • The federal-government owned Trans Mountain Expansion Pipeline shows how new infrastructure investments in one sector can relieve pressure for another. When the oil pipeline capacity grew to 890,000 barrels per day, Canadian crude-by-rail dropped to the lowest levels since 2012,9 freeing up capacity for Western grains, pulses, and oilseeds, and other commodities. 

  • Investments like DP’s World’s Port Authority Rail Yard project ⁠at the Fraser Surrey Terminal in Surrey, British Columbia, aim to improve handling capacity and efficiency for agricultural exports. The newly announced Canada-British Columbia Cooperative Prosperity Agreement includes $10 billion in federal funding to upgrade the Roberts Bank Terminal 2 in Delta, B.C., along with other potential investments at the Prince Rupert port, further north of the province. (For more on this topic, listen to the Disruptors podcast discussing the Roberts Bank Terminal 2 expansion). 

  • Other efficiency enhancements underway at the Port of Vancouver include the port’s new Active Vessel Traffic Management Program (AVTM) and a centralized scheduling system, which coordinate bridge lifts and vessel movements with train scheduling and reduce delays10. Improving methods for loading grain in the rain, which can halt loading between 30-60 days a year, can also increase port turnaround times. 

Recent years have shown where Canada’s transport system is fragile. The rail and port infrastructure decisions made over the next few years will influence how gains in productivity translate into stronger export growth, and whether the country’s supply chains stay anchored in Canada. Addressing these acute risks should be core to Canada’s nation-building conversation, and large capital investments are needed alongside supply chain efficiency improvements. Farmers have done their part to boost production—the systems moving the output need to keep up. 

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As Canadian farmers produce more per acre to feed a growing global population, fertilizer use has jumped 108% over the past two decades. That has come with an environmental impact: synthetic fertilizers now account for a quarter of the agriculture sector’s emissions in Canada.1 But the current emissions accounting system is flawed as it primarily focuses on the quantity used. What’s missing in the equation is farmer stewardship of fertilizer use to optimize placement, source and timing that help lower emissions.

Crop emissions from fertilizers have risen by 111% since 2005.

Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada and RBC Climate Action Institute

In an effort to optimize fertilizer use, the number of Canadian farmers with a nutrient stewardship plan has more than tripled over the past five years.2

Rising adoption rates are a sign of climate action. But it’s also an economic decision, especially as geopolitics continue to disrupt fertilizer supplies and raise prices. Nitrogen fertilizers have faced the brunt of supply chain shocks from geopolitical conflicts over the past five years as key producers include the Middle East and Russia. Nitrogen is also the primary driver of GHG emissions from fertilizer use. When nitrogen is not fully consumed by crops to grow, nitrogen can be emitted into the atmosphere as nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, a GHG that is 273 times more potent than carbon dioxide over a 100-year time scale. When farmers adopt nutrient stewardship practices, GHG reductions can be substantial. An Ontario study, for example, found that when nitrogen fertilizer rates are optimized, and technology and practices that improve the source, timing and placement of fertilizer are adopted, N2O emissions can fall by up to 57%.

To capture in the accounting the full suite of practices, Canada, and other agriculture producing countries, including Australia, Denmark, New Zealand, Brazil and the U.S., are developing research and industry networks to collaboratively advance N2O measurement and monitoring systems.  

These research-driven networks have multiple lab-to-market applications, including those focused on:

  • Improving the understanding of how farmers’ practices impact N2O emissions, supporting investment decisions by farmers, industry and governments in nutrient stewardship

  • Building a suite of indicators that allow for more accurate tracking against GHG emission targets at the farm, regional and national scale

  • Refining the measuring, monitoring, reporting and verification (MMRV) protocols for carbon offsets and sustainability programs, improving the accounting of farmers’ climate actions to better connect them to market-based incentives and provide greater assurance to carbon credit buyers

Canada: A driving force in innovation of measurement and monitoring practices

Canada’s response to fertilizer-related N2O emissions has increasingly focused on improving measurement, coordination, and on-farm nitrogen management. A central initiative is the Canadian Nitrous Oxide Network (CanN2ONet), a collaborative research network involving universities, government agencies, farmer groups, and industry partners. The network was established shortly after Canada’s national target for reducing fertilizer-related N2O emissions by 30% by 2030 was announced in 2020—a policy with notable industry push back that has since faded in sector discourse.

CanN2ONet operates a series of long-term monitoring sites across Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Ontario. These sites use micrometeorological techniques to continuously measure N₂O emissions from agricultural fields under different climates, soil conditions, and management systems. The network also addresses a long-standing challenge in agricultural climate policy: accurately measuring emissions at field scale. Traditional national GHG inventories often rely on generalized assumptions that do not fully capture local soil and weather conditions.

Denmark: An ambitious vision for meeting GHG targets

Denmark’s SmartField initiative represents one of Europe’s most advanced efforts to reduce agricultural N2O through data-driven and field-scale innovation. Led by the Danish Technological Institute and funded by the Novo Nordisk Foundation, SmartField aims to cut N2O emissions from Danish agriculture by as much as 30% by 2030 without reducing yields or increasing other forms of nitrogen pollution. 

Canada and Denmark-based researchers are advising one another as both CanN2ONet and SmartField focus on building a national testing and validation platform for emission-reduction technologies and farming practices. The SmartField project combines stationary “supersites,” mobile measurement systems, advanced sensors, and modelling tools to monitor how fertilizers behave in real farming conditions. These facilities generate detailed datasets on nitrogen cycling, soil biology, crop performance, and greenhouse gas emissions. 

One of the initiative’s features is the integration of science, policy, and implementation. SmartField brings together universities, government agencies, agricultural organizations, and private-sector stakeholders to accelerate the adoption of low-emission farming practices.

New Zealand: Balancing rural economic growth and GHG trajectories

Agriculture accounts for roughly half of the country’s GHG emissions. Cattle manure from livestock and fertilization of grasslands for animal feed are the main culprits of N2O emissions. The agricultural sector is also the largest contributor to export revenue, accounting for 70% of merchandise exports, with agricultural production alone contributing 5% to the country’s GDP.

New Zealand’s approach to managing its large agriculture environmental and economic footprint has evolved over the past five years with an initially strong prioritization on GHG reductions aligned with legislated net-zero targets. Through industry engagement, the focus has shifted towards innovation and scaling practices and technologies that present win-wins in productivity and emissions reduction. A government-led, centralized approach to advancing N2O emissions accounting has been driven by the country’s Ag Emissions Centre and rolls into New Zealand’s broader ambitions to mitigate GHG emissions from agriculture.

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Industrial carbon pricing is seen as one of the most effective policy levers in reducing GHG emissions. Canada is reassessing its approach to scale investment in domestic climate action and put the country back on track for GHG emissions reductions. But all abatement options need to be on the table. Agriculture’s role as a vehicle to reduce GHG emissions and sequester carbon could prove to be a valuable tool in a nationally harmonized carbon market.

Climate-smart agriculture remains an unleveraged resource for Canada to attract investments and GHG emissions reduction. Agriculture could abate more than 37 megatonnes per year in GHG emissions by 2030—that’s about 6% of Canada’s projected GHG emissions in 2030.

Ten carbon pricing systems make up Canada’s fragmented market. This approach is characterized by poor conditions like supply and demand discrepancies, price inconsistency, and a lack of transparency. Solving these macro issues is essential to making Canadian agriculture and other sectors competitive in climate action.

Agriculture is often sidelined in climate policy, with five major barriers holding back its development. In addition to fragmented, shallow markets, a lack of applicable protocols for climate-smart agricultural practices, high MMRV costs spread across small projects, limited risk mitigation for farmers and investors, and a small pool of carbon market expertise have stunted the growth of Canadian agriculture in the marketplace.

A transfer portal for agriculture projects from offset to inset markets is among five ideas to unlock agriculture’s potential in carbon pricing. Removing federal and inter-provincial regulatory barriersto develop and trade carbon creditsandaccelerating the approval of applicable agriculture protocols through a hierarchy system could also foster a marketplace that benefits from robust agriculture presence.

Agriculture has long been on the sidelines of Canada’s industrial carbon pricing system. But momentum may be shifting. The climate competitiveness strategy, industrial carbon pricing benchmark review, Canada-Alberta energy MoU, and a new nature strategy (A Force of Nature), are all potential launchpads to more deeply engage agriculture in climate innovation and nature-based investment opportunities like carbon markets.

Farmers have advocated for improved access to carbon markets as a source of offsets for some time.1 While climate-smart agriculture can create win-wins in profit margins and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, innovation can be expensive at first—making incentives essential to scaling impact. On the surface, the financial opportunity of carbon markets for farmers innovating in climate-smart practices and technology is immense. Market participation can also help chip away at the sector’s GHG emissions and boost its carbon sinks. Canada’s agriculture sector produces 10% of Canada’s emissions and could abate more than 37 megatonnes of GHG emissions per year by 2030 by adopting climate-smart practices—that’s about 6% of Canada’s projected GHG emissions in 2030.2 With the right carbon market in place, that GHG abatement potential could be turned into assets for investors and companies looking to reduce their carbon footprint.

But for all its promise, Canada’s current carbon pricing regime is fragmented, characterized by underperforming markets, and unleveraged investment opportunities.Limited progress in building a fungible marketplace and utilizing agricultural landscapes and technologies as offsets in Canada has diverted climate-smart investments and projects to other countries. That said, scaling agriculture’s presence in carbon markets is still early days and remains a complex policy endeavor in most advanced economies. There’s still time for Canada to ramp up. And while structural, capital and talent barriers weaken the agriculture sector’s ability to issue offset credits at scale, addressing these issues is an opportunity to durably position agriculture GHG mitigation as a cost-effective path for Canada to meet its net-zero goals. Doing so, as is outlined below, requires targeted policy reform, accelerated action on protocols, and precise investment in capacity and resourcing.

That said, scaling agriculture’s presence in carbon markets is still in its early days and remains a complex policy endeavor in most advanced economies. And while structural, capital and talent barriers weaken the Canadian agriculture sector’s ability to issue offset credits at scale, addressing these issues is an opportunity to durably position agriculture GHG mitigation as a cost-effective path for Canada to meet its net-zero goals. Doing so, as is outlined below, requires targeted policy reform, accelerated action on protocols, and precise investment in capacity and resourcing.

How Canada’s carbon pricing system works

Every province and territory has an industrial carbon pricing system for large industrial emitters that meet the minimum national stringency standard.

A look at some of the systems’ design—and bugs:

  • A patchwork of systems: Under the Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act (GGPPA) a federal backstop output-based pricing system (OBPS) is applied in jurisdictions without equivalent systems, which covers Yukon, Nunavut, Manitoba, and Prince Edward Island.

  • Self-managed provinces: For the other provinces and territory, Canada’s carbon pricing architecture allows for the administration of a localized carbon pricing system so long as it meets the federal minimum stringency standard.

  • Polluter pays: Large industrial facilities, including oilsands and steel factories, are regulated under their jurisdiction’s carbon pricing system. Facilities that emit above their sectoral benchmark must either pay the carbon price on excess emissions, purchase eligible surplus credits from other regulated facilities that have cut their emissions below the benchmark, or purchase credits from non-regulated industries (e.g., agriculture and forestry) that can generate offsets under an approved protocol.

  • Agriculture has limited options to participate. In Canada, the active compliance offset market pathways, where approved agriculture or agriculture-adjacent protocols exist, include the Federal GHG Offset System, Alberta’s TIER system, B.C.’s OBPS, and Quebec’s cap-and-trade system. The Federal GHG Offset System is eligible to farmers across the country, unless a protocol in their jurisdiction already exists for the offset agriculture practice, they are considering (e.g., reducing methane emissions from beef cattle).

    • Federal GHG Offset System:

      Reducing Enteric Methane Emissions from Beef Cattle

    • Alberta’s OBPS (TIER Registry):

      – Agriculture Nitrous Oxide Emissions Reductions

      – Biofuel production and usage

      – Biogas production and combustion

      – Energy efficiency

      – Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Fed Cattle              

      – Selection for Low Residual Feed Intake Markers in Beef Cattle

    • BC’s OBPS:

      – Methane from Organic Waste

      – Fuel switching

    • Quebec’s cap-and-trade system:

      – Methane destruction by covering manure storage facilities

      – Manure anaerobic digestion

1. Fragmented federation: Shallow markets prevent scale

Fragmentation discourages investors from looking at Canada as a united market. Canada’s decentralized carbon pricing system poses several challenges with respect to scaling agriculture offsets for investment, including:

  • Policy complexity and ambiguity for farmers seeking market access points

  • High administrative burdens for regulated businesses, aggregators and investors that operate or need scale across jurisdictions to prove return on investment

  • Small markets that lack investor participation and liquidity

  • Ineffective use of Canada’s resources and expertise in market design and development

Further complicating matters, Canada’s system sits within an international voluntary and compliance market landscape that is disjointed. This landscape is difficult to navigate because of the varying offset registries, standards and protocols that are not equal, creating market and credit quality ambiguity.

Snapshot of Canada's compliance market activity for agriculture.

Status of agricultural projects under the carbon pricing systems

Fragmentation within Canada leads to several inefficiencies in the marketplace. In particular, the limitations in cross jurisdiction protocol use and project development restrain the effective use of domestic resources and expertise. Developing agricultural protocols and offset projects requires significant technical expertise and time to build measuring, monitoring, reporting, and verification (MMRV) standards and systems. When protocols are not transferable, and projects are not scaled across jurisdictions, it can lead to duplication of resource use and impede economies of scale in project development. For example, Environment and Climate Change (ECCC) recently developed a protocol in the federal offset system for emissions reductions in beef feedlots. Federal system protocols are not transferable to provincial systems when an equivalent protocol already exists. Alberta beef producers, who account for more than 70% of Canada’s feedlot cattle, cannot tap the federal protocol despite their suitability and must use the protocol on the Alberta TIER system–resulting in a new protocol that is not accessible by the majority of beef feedlots.

2. Impractical protocols: Agriculture’s role in GHG reductions is limited

One of the biggest obstacles in strengthening agriculture’s presence on compliance markets is the lack of approved and applicable protocols for climate-smart practices. Developers cannot issue credits without protocols that track and verify emission reductions. Without protocols, there are no offsets.

Developing protocols is a highly technical process and building consensus on MMRV approaches is a global challenge. However, agriculture protocols in Canada have proven to be especially challenging—recent protocols are the product of a slow, risk-averse approach. For instance, the Enrichment Soil Organic Carbon Protocol has been under development on the federal system for more than three years as the technical team works to devise a protocol that adheres to the offset system’s standards and is useable in practice.

Canada-wide offset coverage: Canada's greenhouse gas coverage in agriculture by compliance offset protocols

In Canada, there is a focus on project-specific direct measurements to prove impacts. This often entails greater accuracy but can result in high costs and resourcing for MMRV, especially if projects are not scaled. Balancing rigor with MMRV feasibility is the key challenge in protocol design moving forward. Project developers that have piloted different versions of the Nitrous Oxide Emissions Protocol (NERP) on Alberta’s TIER system have brought this challenge into focus. NERP projects have demonstrated the mismatch that can occur between MMRV requirements, quality in farm-level data, and the realities of working farms in natural ecosystems.

3. Stuck in pilot phase: Small projects, small ROI, slow growth

Building an engaged network of farmers, project developers and policy makers requires piloting programs to build expertise and hubs of innovation. The problem is that many agricultural offset projects in Canada have struggled to get past the pilot phase. As a result, Canada has a small presence in the marketplace–accounting for 0.2% of agriculture projects on established global voluntary registries. These projects have not issued credits yet.3

Several other factors are to blame for the lack of scaled agriculture offset projects on voluntary and compliance markets, including protocol design, limited awareness in Canada on reputable carbon market options for agriculture, small pools of upfront capital for scaling projects, geographical dispersion, and few agri-tech and agri-food companies headquartered in Canada, which can influence where companies plan their first pilot projects and initial growth. The trialing of the Canadian Grasslands Protocol on the voluntary registry, Carbon Action Reserve, also demonstrates the challenges to scaling projects when the value of credits is not in step with the size of commitment asked of farmers and ranchers like signing conservation agreements or easements and 100-year permanence guarantees.

Experience in the voluntary market can be a test bed for farmers, aggregators and regulators that need case studies like the pilot of the Canadian Grasslands Protocol to work out technical kinks and inform future market participation and protocol development. But it requires regulators to action the lessons learned. Proving out the scalability of agriculture offsets and exploring market design components before introducing them into compliance systems is an approach that is being led by the European Union (EU), where the largest Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) by value is operated. The European Commission has been pressed to include carbon removals, including agriculture offsets, into the EU ETS. The commission is responding to the demand by first exploring impacts in voluntary marketplaces. The EU adopted the Carbon Removals and Carbon Farming Regulation in 2024, which establishes the market scaffolding for the first EU-wide voluntary certification framework for carbon removal projects that are recognized by the European Commission. Approaches like this can help scale projects past the pilot phase by promoting investor confidence via regulatory recognition, while also providing a stepwise approach to stringency and compliance by starting in the voluntary space.

4. Lack of risk sharing: Market conditions silo farmers, regulators, and investors to manage their own risks

Introducing new practices can pose financial and operational risks for farmers–a global challenge farmers face in scaling climate-smart practices. Carbon credit payments are typically issued after GHG emissions are verified and credits are sold on the marketplace. This can create a lengthy period between farmers’ investment into practice and technology adoption and carbon credit payments. Depending on the project design and upfront capital availability from credit buyers (e.g., off-take agreements), project aggregators can provide intermediary payments to farmers that cover part of the credit value while the project goes through the MMRV process. This option, however, can create risks for investors–what if the project does not meet the MMRV standards and cannot generate credits? This dynamic of investor and farmer risks being at odds is critical to solve for in scaling agriculture offset projects. Carbon markets, especially compliance markets, impose strict guardrails around additionality, which requires proving the practice change was incentivized by the carbon market, often limiting use of funds from other incentives to supplement crediting gaps.

Climate-smart practices can contribute to improving profit margins, but it can take time. There are not only upfront costs such as purchasing cover crop seed, but risks to yields and margins if the new practice does not perform well. Bain and Company estimate that Canadian farmers who adopt climate-smart practices risk, on average, three to five years of potentially lower yields and higher costs per acre before they start to see profits.4 Farmers, are therefore, taking on risks that relate to market participation costs, especially for MMRV, and farm productivity losses if the practices do not deliver on robust GHG abatement.

5. Talent and innovation wanted: Canada is a laggard in carbon market expertise

The market design limitations, from fragmentation to unpractical protocols, has led to Canada falling behind in developing the right talent and tools needed to design protocols, scale projects and issue agriculture credits on the marketplace. In the meantime, our global peers are pulling ahead. The U.S., EU, and Australia, along with emerging economies like Brazil, are establishing large networks of relevant expertise, including project developers, agri-tech companies specializing in MMRV, and institutions and consultants that have deep knowledge and experience in defining market pathways for agriculture within environmental governance frameworks.

Government policy and programming that stimulates market development can play an important role in boosting carbon market know-how and expertise. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) launched Partnerships for Climate Smart Commodities in 2022–a US$3.1 billion investment in more than 140 projects that has provided technical and financial assistance to help producers implement climate-smart practices, pilot innovative and cost-effective methods for MMRV, and develop markets for climate-smart agriculture. According to the USDA, this investment has led to hundreds of expanded market opportunities and the reduction of 60MT GHG emissions over the projects’ lifespan.5 Investments like this also stimulate the need for support services, like agronomists and financial advisors in agriculture, to boost their expertise in positioning farmers to be successful in market-based mechanisms that incentivize GHG mitigation.

How other jurisdictions are approaching agriculture’s integration into industrial carbon pricing

Context:

The bloc traditionally supports climate-smart practices via subsidy programs, but as of 2024, the EU has been developing the market architecture for farmers to have more options for hybrid funding.

Approach:

The cornerstone of building the market architecture for agriculture to engage in carbon markets recognized by the European Commission is the Carbon Removals and Carbon Farming Regulation.

The CRFC establishes an EU-wide certification system for carbon removals for farmers to generate offsets that will first be available on voluntary markets. The EU is considering a step-wise approach that could lead to agriculture being integrated into the EU ETS.

Ambition:

Build market-based pathways for agriculture to engage in carbon markets that contribute to decarbonizing the EU food system with a strong focus on credit integrity and quality.

Context:

A market-driven approach since 2011 that is focused on agriculture integration into compliance markets as a core supply of credits.

Approach:

Australia’s compliance framework positions farmers to voluntarily generate Australian Carbon Credit Units that are bought by regulated, large industrial emitters and by the government via auction to guarentee long-term demand.

Focus on carbon removal credit creation from agriculture has led to credit integrity and quality debates.

Ambition:

Fully integrate agriculture into compliance markets as a source of offsets to contribute to national decarbonization targets.

Context:

California has aligned its cap-and-trade system with funds to invest in decarbonization, providing pathways for farmers to earn carbon credits and receive support for climate-smart projects.

Approach:

California’s cap-and-trade system covers regulated, large industrial emitters and allows companies to use a limited number of offset credits when they do not meet the compliance benchmark.

Agriculture can be a source of these credits via approved protocols including anerobic digestion and reducing methane from rice cultivation. To support carbon removals in agriculture, Californa uses funding programs like the Healthy Soils Program.

Ambition:

Provide multiple pathways for agriculture to be supported for climate-smart practice adoption via credits and funding programs, while reducing risks associated with removal credits in the compliance market.

Context:

Policy frameworks on compliance markets and agriculture’s participation are in transition and being consolidated. Currently there is a mix of voluntary markets, compliance pilots and funding programs with plans to develop a compliance market for large, industrial emitters and potentially include agriculture as a source for offsets.

Approach:

The Brazilian Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading System (SBCE), established in 2024, is currently in its initial setup phase. The system is aiming for full operation by 2030. Policy experts are anticipating that agriculture will be positioned to produce credits under the trading system. The amount of offsets used by regulated emitters is expected to have a quantitative limit.

Ambition:

Position agriculture to be a voluntary participant in the compliance marketplace to help incentivize emissions reductions alongside other active mechanisms in the country like insetting programs and voluntary markets.

Context:

Agriculture, particularly methane emissions from livestock, is the largest source of emissions in the country, which has led to a heated debate on how to approach emissions reductions in the sector.

A carbon price for on-farm emissions was planned, but New Zealand’s updated 2026 Emissions Reduction Plan revised its approach to focus on investing in on-farm innovation and technology to help drive down GHG emissions.

Approach:

Currently agricultural practices are not regulated under the country’s ETS and farmers are generating credits via forestry projects.

To address its livestock emissions, the country has developed a public-private investment fund, AgriZero, for scaling innovations that are proven to reduce GHG emissions from livestock. This fund operates seperately from the ETS.

Ambition:

Balance the economic ambitions and GHG mitigation objectives of the livestock sector, recognizing it uniquely as a central driver for growth and the national GHG inventory.

1. Develop a federal, provincial, and territory offset harmonization framework for agriculture

Harmonize agriculture offset registries, projects and protocols across provincial, territorial, and federal systems. It’s like lifting inter-provincial trade barriers. The federal government and provinces could negotiate formal harmonization revisions under the GGPPA covering:

  • Protocol equivalency recognition: Positions each jurisdiction to accept the other’s standards, reducing redundancies and red tape.

  • Credit fungibility: Stimulates market activity and diversified demand across jurisdictions.

  • Shared MMRV standards and safeguards: Avoids inconsistency in MMRV approaches and double accounting, while injecting clarity and certainty for investors on credit quality.

  • Registry interoperability: Allows for project developers and investors to scale projects across jurisdictions and seamlessly access, exchange and interpret data on projects across Canada.

  • Buffer pool coordination: Centralizes credit reserves that are used to act as an insurance policy across projects under equivalent protocols in the case of reversals or overstatements.

Under this framework, agricultural projects that meet federal environmental integrity standards could be developed across compliance markets. This approach could scale projects across more than one province with similar production systems. Examples include the Aspen Parkland, extending from Manitoba into Alberta, the Peace River Region, split between British Columbia and Alberta, and the Great Clay Belt, which crosses the northern border of Ontario into western Quebec. Such interoperability could increase market liquidity, minimize project cost for farmers and project developers, reduce administrative duplication, and create clearer incentives for farmers and investors.

Integrated carbon markets such as the Western Carbon Initiative that caps market activity at 352 megatonnes of GHG emissions across the participating jurisdictions, prove that harmonized systems are possible and produce deeper markets that can significantly increase trading volumes and price stability.6

To ensure agriculture offset harmonization does not invoke volatility and protects benchmark integrity, additional measures within a harmonized system could include:

  • Introducing a floor price for agricultural offsets tied to the federal carbon price

  • Allowing multi-year forward contracting between farms and industrial emitters

  • Setting annual issuance ceilings

  • Reviewing market impacts every three years

2. A transfer portal for agriculture projects from offset to inset markets

The lack of market integration for GHG mitigation projects across compliance and voluntary marketplaces is often pointed to as a barrier in growing investor activity and reducing market access challenges for farmers. The portal would allow projects to be transferred to voluntary carbon insetting registries—where companies are investing in GHG reductions in their supply chain. The transfer portal would therefore act as a mechanism to increase access to robust agriculture projects that are GHG mitigating and prevent oversupply in compliance markets.

Complementary to compliance with market demand, GHG mitigating agricultural projects are sought after from agri-food companies that have made commitments to reduce their supply-chain’s GHG emissions (i.e., Scope 3), which primarily come from agriculture production. Creating a national transfer portal for agricultural projects would allow projects to be redirected to corporate agri-food buyers seeking to reduce their supply-chain emissions. Transferring offset projects to an inset project can require some changes to the MMRV approach, such as changing the baseline measurement from an intervention to an inventory methodology. But making such changes when projects are transferred is necessary to do before issuing credits because international guidance for agri-food companies with scope 3 targets prohibits the use of offset credits in accounting scope 3 emissions reductions. Enabling such transfers is being led by groups like VERRA, who will soon publish guidance on how to transfer projects from their voluntary offset registry, Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) to their inset program, Scope 3 Standard (S3S). Allowing this type of market integration could create the market conditions necessary to boost agri-food companies confidence and investment in Canada-based inset projects because they would be following government approved protocols.

3. Create a dedicated “agriculture offset stream” within OBPS

An agriculture offset stream defined within regulated emitters’ allotted use of offset credits could be an approach to balancing the risk of flooding the market with credits, while also stimulating targeted agriculture offset credit creation. Within the existing caps and limitations for offset use across the provincial and federal system, this agriculture offset stream could be carved out of the existing requirements for regulated emitters purchasing offsets, where they must dedicate a share of their purchases to agriculture projects when projects are available on the marketplace.

Agricultural offsets should be integrated into the industrial carbon market in a way that supports cost containment without weakening incentives for industrial decarbonization. As industrial benchmarks tighten toward Canada’s 2035 and 2050 climate targets, the required use of agricultural offsets could gradually decline.

This structure would allow agricultural credits to play three complementary roles, while ensuring that industrial decarbonization remains the primary driver of emissions reductions:

  • Provide cost containment for industry

  • Generate new income streams for farmers and support rural economies

  • Deliver incremental mitigation outside heavy industry.

4. Accelerate approval of applicable agriculture protocols

Not all agricultural offsets projects are equal in their strategic value. Recognizing that some agriculture offsets have more co-benefits than others and some carry more risk, Canada could adopt a public hierarchy for agriculture protocol development that tiers climate-smart practices by their MMRV cost and risks, GHG mitigation impact and co-benefits to prioritize protocol development and reform.

  • High-priority protocols could focus on offsets that have strong MMRV frameworks and deliver tangible long-term economic value beyond credits, including:

    • Manure digesters linked to renewable natural gas

    • Livestock methane-reducing feed additives

    • Precision nitrogen management

  • Medium-priority protocols could focus on those that have broader ecosystem service values and are identified as critical to building resilience, but have less certainty in MMRV, including:

    • Cover cropping

    • Reduced/no-till systems

    • Improved crop rotations

    • Grassland restoration

    • Edge of field rehabilitation (e.g., restoring wetlands)

  • Low priority protocols could focus on emerging practices that have potential but require scaling in processing or advancements in technologies to be applicable in Canada, including:

    • Biochar

    • Microbial inoculants

The science behind MMRV of agriculture protocols is not perfect—our understanding of natural ecosystems is inherently limited–and there are material risks in miscalculating the correlation between farmers’ practice adoption and GHG mitigation outcome. Yet, there are ways to responsibly manage these risks, while accelerating the approval process of protocols.

For example, agriculture protocols can adopt:

  • Conservative baselines

  • Additionality tests against counterfactual baselines

  • Reversal risk buffers

  • 20+ year monitoring frameworks for soil carbon

5. Aggregate agriculture offset projects and invest in regional MMRV to achieve critical mass

Most Canadian farms can influence relatively small volumes of GHG emissions reductions, often making the cost of registering and verifying individual farm offset projects cost prohibitive. But many Canadian farmers are also unclear on the pathways to participate in aggregated projects.

To overcome these barriers, the federal government could establish a national aggregation framework that licenses third-party project aggregators via the existing Credit and Tracking System (CATS), and publicly lists them when they are developing projects for farmers to enroll, which would be in addition to the list of active projects listed on the registry. This list of third-party aggregators then becomes the trusted gateway for farmers seeking opportunities to participate in projects.

Complementary to improving the transparency in market access, federal and provincial governments could also consider structuring funding streams under programs like the Agricultural Clean Technology Program that are dedicated to improving regional approaches to MMRV frameworks. The funding stream could be accessible by agriculture organizations in partnership with project aggregators to develop on-the-ground resources and technical expertise that help facilitate farmer participation in projects and adoption of technology required to collect data for MMRV systems and drive down GHG emissions. Advanced targeted investments in MMRV technology and resources that are required to issue robust agriculture offset credits include:

  • Remote sensing and satellite-based soil monitoring

  • Streamlined and consistent soil sampling processes

  • Integration of digital farm data platforms and farmer awareness on data requirements

  • Standardized emission factors for climate smart-practices that are regionally adapted.

By adopting a more inclusive model of project development and opportunities for engagement, Canada could expand agriculture’s participation in the marketplace while maintaining rigorous environmental oversight.

Giving Farmers Credit: Integrating agriculture in Canada’s industrial carbon pricing system - download the report

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“We must be quite clear about one point: the farmer is responsible for the soil [they] till. This natural resource will not restore itself as fast as it is depleted…The farmer, therefore, needs to open a soil-savings account. It will not only conserve [their] soil, but it will return an increased income and accumulate interest.”

That quotation, pulled from a 1958 edition of Making Money by Saving Soils (the original source of RBC Thought Leadership), is as true today as it was when it was first written. In fact, the soil conservation conversation has been a constant among farmers long before that. And while things have evolved, research, data and technology have helped to uncover more about the dynamics of the ground beneath our feet, many of the challenges of conserving soils to grow healthy crops remain the same.

In 1950, one in five Canadians were part of the farm population.1 At the time, RBC described three good reasons to save soils:

  • Make a living

  • The hope to make a better living

  • Have a going concern to hand onto the next generation

Farmers were encouraged to adopt practices like crop rotations, responsible nutrient management, and conserving edge-of-field environments like forests and waterways. Back then, tillage was encouraged for three reasons: the preparation of a suitable seed bed, the destruction of plants that would compete with growing crops, and the improvement in the physical condition of soil. Today, the opposite is often encouraged to reduce soil loss, build soil biodiversity, and avoid disrupting soil carbon sinks. This change has served Canadian soil health well. Canada’s agricultural soils are estimated to be a net carbon sink today, driven by widespread adoption of no-tillage in the prairies and increases in productivity across the country.2

Agriculture transformed between the 1940s and 1970s with advancements in life science and mechanization, leading to mass adoption of new crop varieties, fertilizers, pesticides and modern farm equipment that allowed farmers to produce more per acre for a growing global population. And it was all being done by fewer farmers–by 1980, 1 in 21 Canadians were part of the farm population.3

Farmers were introducing more nutrients to their soils, including nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium to optimize the growth of crops. In some cases, adding more nutrients led to the excess use of fertilizer, which had a negative impact on soil composition and externalities such as pollution of waterways. But the productivity boost also meant more crop residue was being returned to the soil, adding to soil organic matter.

The tools introduced to agriculture during the Green Revolution continue to be fine-tuned today to help farmers produce more high-quality crops. Increasingly, inputs and equipment are presenting win-win opportunities for soil health and productivity with the development of tools like biological fertilizers or see and spray technology for pesticide application that only applies chemicals where needed to eliminate invasive plants.

Today, less than 2% of Canadians call a farm their home or place of work.4 Remarkably, on the shoulders of this small group, Canada ranks in the top 10 globally for food security, agri-food exports, as well as food quality and safety.5 6 But it’s also a threat to the future growth of the agriculture and food sector as fewer Canadians step foot on a working farm or meet someone working in the sector.

Farmers today, compared with 70 years ago, rely on a much larger network of partners and advisors to do their job, including everything from finance, agronomy, technology, machinery, farm transition planning and sustainability. It’s less likely today than it ever was for young people see these diverse, dynamic and exciting careers in agriculture, beyond farming. For instance, data and computer scientists are developing AI tools for farmers that perfect the precision of inputs like fertilizers, environmental consultants are connecting farmers to marketplaces that reward soil conservation via credits and premiums, and trade experts are moving Canadia-made products to new markets. Engaging more Canadians in the journey of strengthening agriculture as a foundational sector for Canada’s prosperity and the importance of conserving natural assets like healthy soils are the big challenges ahead.

A close read of the 1958 publication provides a glimpse of what’s next–change: “To be good conservationists it may be necessary for us to remake some of our thought, abandon some customary practices, and revise, sometimes drastically, our methods of farming.”

The continued capacity of soil to function as a vital living ecosystem that sustains plants, animals, and humans.7 Soil is foundational to our economy and environment. Roughly 95% of the food we consume needs soil to grow.8 Soils are also the largest terrestrial carbon sink–holding three times the amount of carbon stored in the atmosphere and twice the amount in all living vegetation.9

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Canada’s agri-food startups present a $13-billion investment opportunity. Capital flows in growing agri-food companies could help Ottawa achieve its target of unlocking $1 trillion in investment by 2030 to power economic growth.

The country’s agri-food sector is currently undercapitalized by domestic growth funds. The sector accounts for only 2% of government-backed growth, venture and infrastructure funds at the federal level, and brought in an estimated 4% of total growth funds invested in Canada over the past 5 years.

It’s not that there isn’t interest. Venture and institutional funds have attempted to flow but fragmented governance across provinces and sector fit for funds have pushed agri-food to the sidelines of mainstream approaches to deploying growth capital.

Domestic agri-food companies got a piece of the growth capital boom–$10.5 billion–between 2015 and 2021. However, investments across sectors have dwindled. Today, growth investment in Canadian agri-food is lower than it was a decade ago, with values down 32% and deals by 29%.

The basic mechanics of growth for an agri-food company can cut the sector out of fund priorities. To align investment with Canada’s growth and sovereignty ambitions, funds like the $1B Venture and Growth Capital Initiative announced in the 2025 federal budget could establish agri-food lanes with tailored tools.

Other nations–including Finland, Japan, and the United Arab Emirates–are explicitly linking food security, productivity, and industrial policy through coordinated growth capital strategies. To achieve food security goals, the UAE launched the Agri-Food Growth and Water Abundance (AGWA) cluster with the ambition to attract $48 billion by 2045 specifically for their agriculture, food and water sectors.

The opportunity for Canadian investors and innovators–public and private–is to better calibrate and scale capital and businesses to anchor economic value domestically. This starts at the idea stage, improving universities’ weakening role in innovation and reverse trends in business outsourced investments to universities for agri-food R&D, which have fallen 64% in the past five years.

Canada has one of the world’s most productive agricultural systems, globally competitive farmers, and is a net exporter of value-added agriculture and food products. Yet, the country is steadily losing its position as a preferred place to start, scale, and retain agri-fooda startups. That’s because the pipeline for investment and innovation has structural gaps and barriers, from seed to maturity.

Canada is in building mode. Its ambition to attract $1 trillionb in investment over the next five years to drive growth for the country is a signal.1 A key piece of mobilizing this investment is to put Canada’s existing infrastructure, growth, and venture funds to work for potential high-growth sectors, such as agri-food industries. Most notably, the 2025 federal budget identified agri-food as one of three sectors that Canada enjoys a strategic global advantage. But Canadian agri-food accounts for less than 2% of growth-oriented government-backed funds. And over the past five years, agri-food companies have only captured 4% of total growth capitalc investment in Canada, which agri-food investors characterize as a stark under-investment in the sector.

If Canada were to align its growth capital investment in agri-food with the industry’s contribution to GDP as a benchmark to build from, it would require an estimated $13 billion from now until 2030–a 36% boost in investment relative to the past five years. An investment ambition to focus action and position Canada as a thriving, global hub of agri-food innovation and products.

Global disruptions over the past five years highlight the need to advance Canada’s sovereign capacity in agriculture and food innovation, production and processing. And the rest of the world is not waiting for Canada to perfect its approach. Without immediate action, Canada risks capping agri-food sector’s growth potential by not hosting more value-add processing domestically. It risks hollowing out the agri-food innovation ecosystem as companies and talent look to other countries, including Australia, Japan and Germany, which are growing their investment in R&D and commercialization.2 And it risks irrelevance in the era of disruptive technologies—including AI-driven decision tools, gene editing, biological inputs, automation, robotics, and novel food processing—that will shape productivity gains in the decades ahead.

There is a mismatch between the framing of Canada’s agri-food sector as a superpower and its strategic advantages with the actual scale and focus of investments domestically. Transforming Canada into an agri-food superpower requires a targeted, nimble approach to capital and growth that navigates the sector’s restraints and fulfills its true potential.

Canada-based companies attarct 3% of growth capital in agri-food sector
  • Purpose of capital: Idea development, early prototyping, market research

  • Investors: Angel investors, incubators/accelerators, university and government grants, venture seed funds, family offices

  • Strengths: Government and regionalized support via early-stage innovation programs

  • Challenge: Breakdown between public and private collaboration on commercialization of intellectual property (IP)

  • Purpose of capital: Pilots, prototyping, market testing, and small-scale production

  • Investors: Accelerators, venture firms, corporate venture, government grants, family offices, Crown corporations

  • Strengths: Growing network of venture funds

  • Challenges: Navigating investment pathways and undercapitalization risks that could force bridging rounds, slow development, and dilute equity

  • Purpose of capital: Continued innovation, market leadership emerging, scaling operations

  • Investors:  Venture firms, private equity, corporate strategic investment, Crown corporations

  • Strengths: Access to international market for capital, especially U.S. and EU

  • Challenges: Gap in follow-on fund, especially Series B to growth and fragmented domestic capital-raising options

  • Purpose of capital: Stable cash flows, slower growth, operational efficiency and expansion, exit

  • Investors: Commercial banks, private equity, merger and acquisition, trade sale, initial public offering

  • Strengths: Strong commercial bank support, however, project financing can be difficult to secure

  • Challenges: Few large domestic corporate acquirers; often requires sale to foreign buyers; Companies with infrastructure projects face structural challenges in assembling capital mixes

Not enough companies make it to growth; and not enough capital is available for the select few that do.

The scale, staging, and value of growth capital invested in growing companies are indicators of a sector’s momentum and growth prospects. In Canada, upstream and midstream marketsd  that cover agriculture inputs to food processing is generally well covered for early-stage capital by government grants, family offices, and venture firms. While end-stream markets like food brands have less access to early stage-funds, with fewer active venture firms in the market. Agri-food companies across market segments start to face Canada’s growth capital challenge of fragmented and shallow domestic funds when seeking to raise $15 million in capital or more. And across economic sectors, there is a significant gap in capital for growth, with domestic venture firms not positioned to inject more than $30 million. This constrains scaling and reduces Canada’s ability to attract and retain high-potential agri-food companies. The situation is exacerbated as agri-food in Canada is too complex for general investors to navigate without industry expertise. The capital pools, for example, engaging with an agriculture-tech company are often completely different from those engaged with a food brand company as their growth metrics, markets, and use of capital differ substantially (e.g., IP vs. a distribution warehouse).

The growth capital market has had a volatile decade. The world experienced a surge in growth capital across sectors, including agri-food, in the lead up to the peak in 2021. Between 2015 and 2021, growth capital in Canadian agri-food in the early and venture stages grew by 1,405% and 480%, respectively.3 This growth was driven by a few factors, and actors:

  • Global interest in agri-food technology and sustainable agriculture surged with the growing urgency to feed more people with fewer environmental impacts. As a result, global investment in agri-food technology rose to $71 billion in 2021.4

  • In response, Canada launched incubators (YSpace Food Incubator), accelerators (SVG Thrive) and applied food science centres (Saskatchewan Food Industry Development Centre) to enable commercialization of agri-food innovation.

  • Agriculture and food focused venture funds also grew in Canada, including District Ventures Capital, Ag Capital Canada, Emmertech, Tall Grass Ventures, and Nya Ventures.

  • And some crown corporations helped drive momentum in the sector through initiatives like Farm Credit Canada’s (FCC) $2 billion commitment by 2030 to advance innovation in the domestic agriculture and food industry.

Growth stage capital acocunts for 12% of investments over the past decade

Since 2021, most segments of growth capital availability and investments have dwindled. Investment in Canadian agri-food companies is now lower than it was a decade ago, with values down 32% and deal count by 29%.5 This contraction mirrors trends in other major agri-food economies—including the U.S., Brazil, and Australia—where funding focused on agri-food technologies dropped to a 10-year low.6

While there have been some positive signs in the past five years, such as rising private equity and a shift to focusing on impactful and mature companies, fundamental challenges in retaining and attracting capital remain. The most obvious challenge is the growth-stage. The value of available capital in Canada in growth stages falls roughly 37% compared to the venture stage where the startups are more supported by venture firms and incubators.7

Canada's agri-food companies face a deep valley at growth stage

However, focusing on fixing this problem in isolation, can result in new problems arising along the pipeline. For example, the agri-food venture funds that emerged over the past decade in Canada now seek to raise new, larger funds to address gaps at the growth capital stage, and this shift could risk creating a new gap in early venture—rounds of between $1 million and $5 million. Enabling capital availability at each stage of growth and across market segments therefore requires coordination among investors to build coverage along the pipeline.

The absence of a Canadian agri-food unicorn—defined as a privately held startup valued at more than $1 billion—is a macro signal that Canada does not have an ecosystem that can propel promising companies.8 Peers like the Netherlands, Germany, and Australia all have unicorns—and heavy hitters like the U.S., India, and China have a stable-full.

Top agri-food unicorn producing countries

Capital structures push companies down and out of Canada.

Canada’s agri-food startups often advance slower through their commercialization and market expansion stages relative to those in competing markets because capital pools are shallower. Less capital leads to incremental growth and longer time horizons to demonstrate returns. While early-stage companies can attract public and venture funding, those seeking larger rounds are often forced to seek capital abroad.

Canada's peers pull ahead in growth stage investments

Vive, a crop protection company based in Mississauga, Ontario, is looking to raise Series D capital, seeking more than $40 million, starting in Q1 of 2026. Vive expects that more than 75% of the capital raised in this round will come from outside Canada. This builds on Vive’s initial market expansion, which occurred in the U.S. because the active ingredient approval for their products took four years compared to the eight years it took in Canada.

Fueling early agri-food innovations but avoiding support for those same innovations at growth stages.

Support from government at the early stages of growth comes largely from incubators, accelerators, cost-share and R&D programs, which are important pieces of Canada’s agri-food innovation pipeline. Yet, this concentration and program delivery often results in Canada’s emerging leaders in agri-food being described as “grant-entrepreneurs” who are forced to spend excessive time on finding and writing applications and meeting reporting requirements instead of building investor-ready businesses. Of course, government checks and balances are vital in public funding, but accessing and reporting on these funds can be made more efficient.

Another challenge with government capital is that economy-wide pools of funds like the Canada Growth Fund do not intentionally restrict agri-food, but the sector often does not fit neatly within investment criteria for several reasons, including project scales, geographical dispersion of production and projects, and the definitions of innovation or clean technology. As a result:

  • Canada Growth Fund’s 17+ investments do not feature a single agri-food company.

  • Of Canada Infrastructure Bank’s 106 investments, only one is focused on agriculture production.

  • The agri-food sector makes up an estimated 3% of the 575 companies invested in through the Venture Capital Catalyst Initiative (VCCI) and Venture Capital Action Plan.

Capital from asset-tied farmers to blocked out institutional investors is an untapped resource for Canada’s agri-food sector.

Institutional investors in Canada, like pensionfunds and private equity firms, want to be engaged in Canadian agri-food but face a trifecta of investment barriers:

  • Limited number of sizeable projects

  • Co-investors, both private and public, to share risk

  • Investment-limiting regulations

Canada’s model for capital attraction in primary agriculture illustrates some of these barriers. Canada is optimized for family ownership with differing provincial regulations on ownership restrictions including foreign investment and supply management for some sub-sectors. This is in sharp contrast to Australia, for example, which treats agriculture as an investable export industry via large, aggregated farms with professional farm management companies. Investors can inject hundreds of millions into single companies, who then have more liquidity to make investments in new companies and innovations that can boost their productivity.

Institutional investors looking to make significant investments with proven returns might see Canada’s fragmented model difficult to navigate. As a result, some of Canada’s largest pension funds invest in agriculture outside of Canada. Public Service Pension Investment’s natural resource portfolio is made up of roughly 77% agri-food investments, with Canada accounting for 9.3%. The largest share, 43.3%, goes to Oceania countries, predominately Australia.

Farmers also have an important role in the agri-food innovation and capital pipeline as new products and services in the upstream market segment can directly impact their growth and productivity. But Canadian farmers are limited since capital is often tied up in operational costs and assets, like land, buildings and equipment. This reduces both demand signals for novel technologies and co-investment opportunities in impactful projects relative to countries that can attract large-scale investments at the farm-level and have available capital for expenditures beyond operations and assets.

Risk aversion dampens investor appetite, entrepreneurship, and innovation.

Unlike the U.S., where a “fail fast, iterate, scale” culture fuels deal activity and risk appetite, Canadian investors are generally more risk-averse, particularly beyond seed stage, which discourages bold bets. This shows up in the number of new Canadian companies seeking funding rounds.

Agri-food companies established in select top countries

Traditional investor preferences toward, for example, information technology over agri-food innovation —often perceived as lower-growth and lower-return—limit participation by generalist venture firms and institutional investors. This reinforces narrow capital pools for late-stage agri-food deals.

The onus to build clear and consistent approaches to access support and capital should not lie solely with investors. If startups can get customers, capital often follows. This stresses the need for improving the applicability of new innovations to real-world problems and the adoption of these innovations alongside investment, starting with Canadian farmers, corporates and retailers but also foreign customers for Canadian companies to truly scale.

Proven demand would enable startups to forge capital paths through their growth stages and work with investors to build the right capital stacks. Three Farmers, a Saskatchewan-based snack food company, scaled production in the Prairies and sells its seasoned pulses in more than 4,000 retailers across Canada and the U.S. Attracting growth capital has been a key component of the company’s success. That includes a 2022 raise of $6.2 million led by three pivotal investors: Venture capital firm District Ventures Capital who has deep consumer packaged goods expertise, Export Development Canada how helps companies effectively grow in foreign markets like the U.S., and Protein Industries Canada who can offer access to innovation and supply chain networks.9 In 2025, a new strategic partnership with Farm Credit Canada (FCC) added equity but also the smart capital that growing companies need in the form of mentorship to help navigate regulations and optimal approaches to capital mixes. Such examples offer a gameplan on engaging and connecting with the right type of investors—at the right time.

Building supply chains requires capitalemerging agri-food companies struggle to source it domestically.

Building out agri-food supply chains and commercializing products often requires infrastructure development for production and processing facilities, which demands the right capital structures across equity and debt to make the developments attractive for companies and investors. Often new facilities for production, especially for food products and processing, require off-take contracts or adoption commitments to secure investor confidence. In Canada, where there is a small pool of investors willing to engage in large capital projects, food supply chains are decentralized, and price benchmarks can be uncertain, particularly for novel food ingredients, obtaining these commitments can be difficult, raising percieved risk.

Despite the upfront cost to commercialize and expand, growth in the industry runs counter to the assumption that momentum is not building for value-add processing in Canada. Over the past decade, year-over-year revenue growth in agri-food manufacturing has averaged 5.9%, compared to the manufacturing average of 3.6%.10

Investment in agri-food manufacturing assets has grown by about 32% in constant prices over the past decade.11 This moderate growth is primarily driven by expansion of established, large scale agri-food companies building out meaningful processing capacity.

Yet, many new companies innovating in food ingredients face barriers in bringing together the right capital stacks due to supply-chain barriers–a lack of price certainty and contractual commitments from buyers before processing infrastructure is built. As a result, Canada risks losing value-add processing to other growing jurisdictions where the capital is flowing it. For example, Phytokana Ingredients Inc., an Alberta startup turning Canadian-grown fava beans into food ingredients, is working to build out Canada’s value-add processing of pulses and is in the process of securing funding to construct and commission a fully automated 30,000-metric-tonne-a-year dry fractionation processing facility near Strathmore, Alberta.12 However, building the right capital base is proving challenging with domestic investors, pushing Phytokana to explore foreign investors, which may have implications for where future value-add processing is developed.

Canada’s agri-food landscape is difficult to navigate for startups and investors not ingrained in the network of agri-food regional and national organizations. Once in these networks, startups in the early stages are often well supported, but two challenges to building consistent pathways for companies to attract staged capital remain:

  • Navigating the funding and support opportunities and application processes

  • Identifying where to go for follow-on funding

Mapping investor profiles to specific market segments and their mandates provides a structured roadmap for scaling capital from seed through to growth stages. Countries like the U.K., Israel, and Singapore offer examples of how to build such structure. The U.K., for example, is known for structured paths from seed accelerators and hubs into mid-and late-stage capital with organizations such as Founder Factory.

A key reason why agri-food deal counts in Canada over the past three years shrink by 450% between early to growth stage is the state of startup companies’ readiness. Investors consistently cite company readiness as a primary constraint. Founders of startups often excel at proof-of-concept and R&D but face challenges when transitioning to validated customer demand, repeatable revenue models, regulatory and supply-chain readiness and management and governance maturity.

Many organizations, including university research innovation offices and accelerators, are positioned to work on these issues. For example, the Canadian Food Innovation Network (CFIN) connects startups with corporate partners around defined food technology market segments such as food ingredients. These programs enable startups to build relationships with retailers and strategic buyers earlier, while giving corporates and supply-chain actors clearer visibility into emerging innovations. Making this connection is critical to improving startup success rates and building connectivity among industry leaders and startups, as only 6% of public corporate companies engage in venture investment in Canada, compared to 40% in the U.S.13

Canada is increasingly perceived as a regulatory burdensome place to scale an agri-food business and commercialize its IP in agri-food.

Canada lags key competitors like Australia, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, UK and South Korea as a priority jurisdiction for agri-food patent filing.14 An outcome of multinational companies, especially those in life sciences that reported that they have seen Canada significantly fall in their internal ranking of jurisdictions to invest in R&D over the last decade. This is in part due to approval processes for agri-inputs like active ingredients in pesticides struggling to maintain a timely and transparent process for reviewing applications.15 These trends are chipping away at Canada’s brand as a supporter of early agri-food innovation.

United States: Scale and depth

Market share: The U.S. captured 33% of global agri-food investments over the past three years.

Strength: The sheer scale and maturity of its capital markets.

Lesson: Build growth funds that can actively participate across the full company lifecycle. For example, Chicago-based S2G Investments has multiple funds, and can work with companies at different stages of growth, creating deeper capital pools, where agri-food companies have historically struggled to access capital from PE or commercial banks (e.g., pre-revenue).

India: Demand-driven growth

Market share: India now attracts 8% of global agri-food growth investment and is projected to be even more dominate over the next decade as its agriculture productivity rapidly improves.

Strength: Growth is anchored in massive domestic demand, a rapidly modernizing food system, and strong government support for agricultural innovation.

Lesson: Focus on the basics of where production and consumption is growing to steer investment. To meet consumption and production projections, India is experiencing strong growth in agri-marketplace platforms, supply-chain logistics, and precision agriculture through increased participation from domestic venture funds and strategic.

The country now captures nearly 8% of Europe’s agri-food tech investments.16 The recent surge was driven largely by a $260-million growth-stage investment in Finnforel, an aquaculture company, highlighting Finland’s strength in sustainable protein and advanced food production systems.

Despite just 2.3 million hectares of farmland—3.7% of Canada’s farmland mass—Finland is emerging as an innovation hub following a similar government-backed approach that the Netherlands and Denmark have taken to crowd-in private investment for the sector. Finland’s ecosystem is characterized by strong public-private collaboration, deep expertise in cold-climate agriculture and aquaculture, and a focus on export-oriented, high-technology solutions.

Japan is now the third largest agri-food technology investor in Asia capturing an estimated 13% of the market–behind India and China.17 Japan rose in the global rankings on the back of several large growth-stage deals, including a $89-million investment in biomaterials startup Spiber.

Japan’s competitive advantages include active participation by large corporate venture investors, including Global Brain Corporation and Beyond Next Ventures. Japan is a mature domestic market that supports commercialization of premium and functional foods and has notable advantages in key growth areas including biomaterials and fermentation technologies. The country’s domestic ecosystem also excels at scaling capital-intensive technologies that require long development timelines and strong industrial partners.

The UAE imports approximately 80% of its food. In response, food security has become a national priority. The UAE aims to produce 50% of its food domestically and rank first in the Global Food Security Index by 2051.18 To achieve this, the UAE launched the Agri-Food Growth and Water Abundance (AGWA) economic cluster, which aims to attract nearly $48 billion by 2045.

Food security as a strategic imperative has fueled rapid growth in the country’s agri-food sector, and is supported by broader benefits of the UAE’s economy, including:

  • Tax-free zones and investor-friendly regulation

  • Leading logistics infrastructure and a strategic geographic location as a connector between Europe, Africa, and Asia

  • Strong government backing aligned with long-term national goals.

Potential impact: Improve universities’ weakening role in innovation and reverse trends in business outsourced investments to universities for agri-food R&D, which have fallen 64% in the past five years.19

Incentivizing commercialization requires exploring approaches beyond rewarding researchers via grants that measure success based on peer-reviewed publications and promotions dependent on traditional academic-research-services model. Agri-food faculties across Canada could consider strengthening their promotion of academic-entrepreneur pathways for researchers—like Dalhousie University’s Agriculture Faculty offers—and create structured opportunities for universities and the private sector to negotiate IP ownership to support commercialization. This could include enabling co-design partnerships among institutions and companies, providing clearer conflict-of-interest guidance, and embedding commercialization activity into promotion and tenure criteria, particularly in applied sciences and engineering disciplines.

It is common practice for Canadian universities and colleges engaged in private-sector projects to automatically own the IP that’s developed. While this approach is often designed to protect public interest and institutional value, these conditions—combined with the lack of formal recognition, tenure credit, and financial reward structures for researchers acting as entrepreneurs—can create material barriers to commercialization. As a result, institutions like universities, which are foundational breeding grounds for experimentation and novel idea generation, risk being increasingly excluded from the agri-food commercialization pipeline, particularly in capital-intensive and applied innovation areas such as food processing, biomanufacturing, and agriculture tech. The U.S, Israel, and parts of Europe have demonstrated that flexible IP ownership models—such as creator-owned or shared-IP frameworks paired with clear revenue-sharing mechanisms—can materially increase startup formation, industry collaboration, and downstream investment without compromising academic integrity.

Potential impact: Mitigate the stark deal count shrink of 450% from early stage to growth stage; and retain entrepreneurial STEM and business talent in agriculture beyond the current 1% of postgraduates.20

To solve early-stage roadblocks, build an AI-powered concierge platform within an existing national organization with sector credibility and institutional knowledge that allows startups to navigate public and private opportunities in one place, building upon existing tools like AgPal.

There have been previous attempts at building similar services to help startups navigate this landscape, and many incubators and accelerators offer connection and navigation services. Yet, agri-food startups consistently report being lost in the early stages of company formation and experience a sharp drop-off in support once they graduate from an incubator or accelerator. This “support cliff” is particularly acute in agri-food due to long R&D cycles, regulatory complexity, and capital intensity. Such a tool could provide tailored, real-time guidance on funding eligibility, customer discovery, regulatory pathways, clearer hand-offs for each growth capital stage, and ecosystem connections.

Optimizing the platform would require investors and early-stage supporters to align on shared definitions of market segments, innovation categories, and support mandates so the tool can accurately route startups to the right opportunities.

Potential impact: Address agri-food’s underwhelming share of total domestic growth capital by engaging more generalists in the sector, while also attracting a larger share of global venture capital investment, totally more than $500 billion in 2025.21

If the sector wants outsiders to engage, existing agri-food leaders and investors in Canada need to offer more intentional platforms for non-agri-food investors to build familiarity, context, and conviction. A starting point could be targeted national roundtables for each market segment led by select agri-food investment leaders for domestic and international generalist investors to start building connections, share sector-specific investment theses, and compare notes on market segment profiles, timelines, and exit pathways.

On the other side, general investors that have intentions to materially and strategically invest in the sector also have an opportunity to pull agri-food into their coverage area. Opportunities to embed agri-food expertise directly into investment decision-making could include:

  • Investment committees and advisory panels that upgrade their agri-food expertise by including agri-food operators, processors, and sector investors.

  • Fund managers of investment firms participating in federal programs like VCCI must have a team with either:

    • Prior agri-food investing experience, or

    • A formal advisory relationship with sector experts.

Venture funds and programs allow for sector-specialist sub-allocations within broader funds such as agri-food market segment carve-outs within generalist funds.

The potential impact: Position agri-food to have investable projects and companies for government-back funds to invest in beyond the current 2% that the sector captures from these funds.

Although agri-food is cited as one of Canada’s key strategic advantages, government investment programs – at the provincial and federal level – are often not accessible to growing agri-food companies because they are not fit for purpose for the types of innovation, asset intensity, and scaling timelines typical of the sector. This misalignment leaves significant agri-food potential unleveraged.

For example, VCCI does not explicitly exclude agri-food, and some participating fund managers do operate agri-food-focused funds. But only 3% of companies invested in through VCCI-supported funds operate within the agri-food sector. While fund manager expertise and explicit mention of agri-food plays a role, so too do program criteria, technology definitions, and innovation classifications that shape investment decisions and systematically bias capital toward digital-first or asset-light sectors, resulting in agri-food being overlooked.

Rather than creating entirely new programs, existing funds could establish agri-food lanes with tailored tools. One option is to explore a growth-stage agri-food mandate within VCCI or its successor under the $1B Venture and Growth Capital Initiative that was announced in the 2025 federal budget.

There is an opportunity to adjust eligibility rules for federal and provincial government funds to reflect how agri-food companies scale as they raise growth capital, making way for high-quality agri-food companies:

  • Accepting asset-heavy business models that have robust business and risk management plans (e.g., processing facilities, fermentation tanks, cold storage, pilot plants)

  • Recognizing process innovation, novel ingredients, yield improvement, and cost reduction as legitimate innovation—not just software or IP-only advances

  • Allowing longer commercialization timelines (7–10 years vs. 3–5) consistent with regulatory, construction, and market adoption realities.

Potential impact: Canada is a net exporter of processed and value added agri-food products with immense potential to host more processing of products that are largely still exported as raw ingredients. One example is plant protein: while Canada is the number one exporter of dried peas, roughly 88% of production over the past five years has been exported as a raw commodity.22 23 This one example significant missed opportunity for domestic value creation, job growth, and export diversification to benefit from the burgeoning pea protein industry.

Expanding the Canadian agri-food value chain, requires public and private investors to be deploying blended capital structures that reflect agri-food economics. This includes considering tools to mitigate risks in capital deployment for high-impact projects that address a clear growth opportunity for Canada’s agri-food sector such as:

  • Subordinated or patient capital alongside private equity

  • Government first-loss guarantees to de-risk infrastructure projects

  • Revenue-linked instruments or convertible structures suited to variable margins

  • Support for offtake-linked financing when buyer commitments are conditional but there is clear demand

In agri-food markets, upstream buyers often hesitate to confirm long-term offtake agreements before facilities are built or scaled, while investors require revenue certainty to deploy capital—creating a structural deadlock. Targeted risk-sharing tools can bridge this gap and unlock private investment into processing, ingredients, and food manufacturing capacity. Of course, Canada will need to find buyers for processed verse raw ingredients, but not exploring the opportunities to scale processing domestically is a lost value creation opportunity for Canada.

Investing in abundance: Addressing Canada’s growth capital gap in agri-food - social

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Alison Suntrum, Nya Ventures and CDL Agri-Food

Amy Standish, Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture

Andrew Heintzman, InvestEco Capital

Arlene Dickinson, District Ventures Capital

Ben Gibbons, Water Point Lane

Bianca Parsons, Alberta Food Processors Association

Blair Knippel, Inside Out LLC.

Brennan Gillis, Dalhousie University

Bruce Rathgeber, Dalhousie University

Celine Hildebrandt, Farm Credit Canada

Chris Hartt, Dalhousie University

Chris Paterson, Tall Grass Ventures

Chris Theal, Phytokana

D’Arcy Hilgartner, RDAR

Dana Gibson, Alberta Innovates

Darren Anderson, Vive Crop Protection

Dave Barrett, Dalhousie University

Dawn Trautman, SVG Ventures, THRIVE

Drew Dwernychuk, Innovation Saskatchewan

Evan Fraser, Arrell Food Institute, University of Guelph

Ghader Manafiazar, Dalhousie University

Glen Price, Venturepark

Graeme Millen, Farm Credit Canada

Graham Markham, New Protein International

Greg McElheran, Export Development Canada

Haibo Niu, Dalhousie University

Heather Bruce, Dalhousie University

Jeff Linner, PFM Capital Inc.

Jeff McKinnon, Four Mile

Jeff Zweig, Fiera Comox

Jodie Parmer, Canada Infrastructure Bank

Jolene MacEachern, Dalhousie University

Kassandra Quayle, Protein Industries Canada

Kee Jim, G.K., K Jim Farms and Feedlot Health Management Services Ltd.

Ken McDougall, McDougall Acres Grainex Inc.

Kirby Sawatzky, Parkland Potato Varieties

Krista Heidebrecht, Sofina Foods

Kristjan Hebert, Hebert Grain Ventures

Kyle Scott, Emmertech

Laurie Dmytryshyn, PIC Investment Group Inc.

Lawerence Hanson, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

Leah Perry, Wittington Ventures

Lenore Newman, University of Fraser Valley

Marie Barnes, Invest Alberta

Martin Vanderloo, New Protein International

Marvin Slingerland, MNP

Matt Coutts, Coutts Agro Ltd.

Matt Petrow, Rayhawk Technologies

Miranda Stahn, New Harvest Canada

Oleta LeRush, BASF Canada

Richa Gupta, Canadian Food Innovation Network

Rob Russell, Emmertech

Robert Saik, T1 Technology Corporation

Shaun Vey, Syngenta Canada

Stefanie Colombo, Dalhousie University

Steven Webb, Global Institute of Food Security

Suresh Neethirajan, Dalhousie University

Travis Esau, Dalhousie University

Tyler Groeneveld, Protein Industries Canada

Wayne Arsenault, Avena Foods

Wilson Acton, Tall Grass Ventures

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Momentum is building across Canada for Indigenous-led agriculture production and food processing. This was on full display in Regina at the recently-concluded Canadian Western Agribition, Canada’s largest livestock show, where the National Circle for Indigenous Agriculture and Food (NCIAF) hosted the Indigenous Agriculture Summit, attracting more than 400 attendees.

1. Shifting demographics sparks skills development

Canada’s total farm population decreased by 3.5% between 2016 and 2021.1 Its workforce is also getting older, with the average farm operator now 56 years old. In contrast, the Indigenous farm population is growing (+6%), with average Indigenous male farm operator aged 34 and 39 for female operators.2

Agriculture’s relatively young and growing Indigenous population can potentially help the sector meet its rising demand for highly skilled talent. It could also support services gaps, including business and finance advisory, agronomic and technology support, and environmental and management planning services.

Indigenous training programs are growing at college and university campuses across the country. In some cases, the offerings are highly specific. For instance, Suncrest College, which operates nine locations across Saskatchewan, launched an Indigenous-led canola crushing program earlier this year. The 12-week program prepares students for careers in the oilseed crushing industry.3 Assinobione Community College in Manitoba is also strengthening Indigenous students’ access to agri-food training and skills by providing tuition-free programs like horticultural production for off-reserve learners, funded by partners like the Congress of Aboriginal Peoples.4

2. Expanding Indigenous engagement in production and land management

First Nation reserves across the prairies are home to 1.5 million acres of cropland—and growing. In Saskatchewan, Indigenous reserve land has nearly doubled since 1992—currently 8,234 square kilometres—due in part to the Treaty Land Entitlement (TLE) and Specific Claims process. The TLE and Specific Claims are Canada’s avenues for fulfilling promises to First Nations, addressing land owed from historical treaties or breaches of obligations of assets (Specific Claims). Cropland on reserves in Saskatchewan increased by roughly 10% over the same period and now covers roughly 43% of reserve land in the Prairie provinces– below the provincial average of cropland accounting for 63% of Saskatchewan.5

With expanded reserve lands and a growing movement to build food sovereignty, Indigenous communities are reintroducing or advancing their community food production systems, focusing primarily on gardens and raising animals on a small scale for local consumption. Fox Lake Cree Nation, for example, reintroduced fruit, vegetable and poultry production for the community, situated 750 kilometres northeast of Winnipeg. On a larger scale, 4C Farms Ltd., on Cowessess First Nation, is an example of an Indigenous owned commercial agricultural production operation, growing grains and oilseeds, and managing a herd of 125 Angus cattle. The farm includes more than 2,500 acres of pasture and hay land, and 2,000 acres of croplands in Saskatchewan.6

Access to processing infrastructure and navigating supply chain logistics and food standards can be barriers to bringing food products grown on reserve to market. To address these barriers, Indigenous communities are working to shorten their supply chains so that they can sell more directly to retailers or customers. Mistickokat Nehiyawak, located about 120 kilometres north of Saskatoon, is a community leading wild rice production and processing initiatives to expand market access for wild rice.

3. Regenerating bison populations

Across North America, roughly 30 to 60 million bison roamed before European colonization led to the expansion of settler communities and agriculture production.7 At the summit, Dr. Leroy Little Bear, elder of the Kainai First Nation and professor emeritus at the University of Lethbridge, shared how restoring bison populations can be a path to Indigenous reconciliation and regeneration.

Indigenous communities are developing approaches to reintroduce bison on reserve land. And it’s paying dividends. The Blood Tribe (Treaty 7) is leading a project to reintroduce plains bison through enhanced land management that includes restoring native grasslands and revitalizing cultural approaches to building a healthy ecosystem, including prescribed burning of grasslands for regrowth. The Blood Tribe now has a 96-animal herd, providing cultural and environmental benefits, and employment opportunities for the band. Overall, the bison population in Canada, primarily concentrated in Alberta and Saskatchewan, has grown by 25% to 150,000 head over the past five years.8 And Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s recent three-year, $5-million investment further supports the restoration of bison in collaboration with Indigenous communities across the region.9 This funding was announced at the summit, and will support capacity building in the bison sector, regional learning herd networks to share knowledge and skills, and foster collaboration among communities.

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  • Canadian agriculture has immense potential but an innovation drain is slowing it down. Canada is home to some of the world’s most productive soils and innovative farmers. But agriculture’s annual growth in productivity has declined to about 1% over the past decade from 2% the previous decade, suggesting that few breakthrough innovations are making it to farms.

  • The sector is not attracting enough talent. Job vacancy rates are 1.5% above the national average. Less than 1% of STEM and business graduates, who play increasingly important roles on the modern farm, are choosing occupations in agriculture.

  • The research and development system is becoming less diverse. Public investment in agriculture knowledge generation, which includes R&D, has declined by 15% since 2010. Private sector outsourced R&D to universities is down 77% over the past five years. And the number of enterprises conducting R&D in the past decade has shrunk by 29%.

  • Other countries are pulling ahead. Canada has fallen behind Australia, the U.S., Japan, and Brazil in public investment in agriculture knowledge generation. Home-grown agriculture commercialization is in a slump as the country’s trade balances grow in innovation areas including agriculture chemicals, fertilizers, and services.

  • Commercialization of agriculture solutions are headed south. Investment in American agri-food technology startups has been 22 times larger than Canada’s over the past 5 years. The outsized market for investment in the U.S. is pulling Canadian innovation south for capital, mentorship, and market application.

Canada’s agriculture sector has all the ingredients to be the best in the world—productive soils, temperate climate, advanced on-farm mechanization, and a growing agri-food manufacturing sector. The size of the opportunity for Canada really comes into focus when you consider the scale of production as a breadbasket to the world, rapid development of digital tools, which are transforming every aspect of farming, and growing access to expand in high-potential export markets, most notably in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia.

Capitalizing on this moment, however, won’t be easy. Productivity has been steadily declining in recent years.1 And the sector has struggled to attract the right mix of talent and maintain the level of investment in R&D that is required to remain a global leader. Addressing these challenges as the sector undergoes a generational shift is not only essential for strengthening the resilience and competitiveness of Canadian agriculture but also for advancing the country’s broader pro-growth ambitions. It can unlock new economic opportunities, keep innovation within Canada’s borders, and position the country as a global leader in sustainable, high-quality agri-food production. But Canada needs a gameplan. One that starts with a strategy that sets the next generation of agriculture leaders up for success.

The Canadian agriculture sector needs more diverse, highly qualified talent to innovate. Job vacancy rates in the sector have been, on average, 1.5% higher than national vacancy rates over the past 10 years.2 And it’s only getting worse. The Canadian Agricultural Human Resource Council estimates that the sector’s domestic labour gap could grow to more than 100,000 by 2030.3 And that’s before 40% of Canadian farmers hit retirement age by 2033.4 Not everyone will call it quits, of course, but there is no doubt that the sector is on the verge of a massive shift.

From a technological standpoint, it already is. Advanced technology—automated tractor steering and animal feeding, robotic milkers, and GIS for soil mapping—is commonplace on today’s Canadian farms. And it’s big business. The number of farmers reporting annual revenues over $1 million has grown year-over-year since 2015, up 67% in 2023.5

Automation demands diversified skills: Farmers remain the cornerstone of the sector, but the industry needs new skills to embrace the technological revolution that’s underway. All kinds of professions—from engineers and data scientists to marketers and business administrators—play crucial roles. The Conference Board of Canada revealed that 1 in 3 jobs in agriculture could be automated in the next decade.6 This suggests an opportunity to mitigate the projected exponential growth in the on-farm labour gaps, but demands more STEM-trained talent applying their expertise to agriculture.

And yet, attracting diverse, highly qualified talent, has proven challenging.

The talent pool is shrinking: In 1931, 1 in 3 Canadians were part of the farm population; in 2021, it was 1 in 61—or 1.6% of the country’s population.7 While a testament to advances in production systems and technology, it is also a barrier to attracting talent. While younger generations in the farm population are more likely drawn to agriculture careers, there’s a need to attract a new talent pool. But many Canadians with engineering, business and computer science degrees are unaware that the sector needs their skills. If Canadians are not exposed to, for example, how engineering, business and computer science is applied to the agriculture sector via robotics, the operating of multi-million-dollar farming businesses or creating soil-health monitoring software, it is unlikely those with that skillset will consider growing their careers in the sector.

For proof, look no further than postsecondary enrollment. Agriculture and natural resources are the second smallest field of study in Canada, only ahead of personal improvement and leisure.8 And those with agriculture-focused diplomas and degrees in the workforce are concentrated in general agriculture and production (32%), horticulture business and services (19%), veterinary technician, administration, and medicine (18%) and food, plant and animal sciences (18%).9

Agriculture grads are not landing in increasingly influential professions such as policy, data, trades and finance. These occupation fields have an important role in managing risks for agriculture but less than 1.5% in each field have some form of agriculture-focused post-secondary training.10 That’s a missed opportunity for entrepreneurial activity in applying data and computer scientist, finance, and trade technician skills to unlock new ways to approach farm management, automation, and financial capital in agriculture.

Creating more experiential and workplace learning opportunities for students is one way to break down silos when it comes to fields of study, attract those from outside of agriculture disciplines, and build up Canada’s agriculture talent pool.  

Collaboration across faculties on college and university campuses might be one place to start to offer students more diverse courses and experiences that are not conventionally born from agriculture departments. For example, Olds College, a uniquely agriculture focused institute in Alberta, offers programs in digital agriculture that includes a wide range of courses, including plant science and data management and analytics. Creating cross-disciplinary hubs also provide a centralized place to expose students to new skills and tools like the University of Guelph’s AI for Food, an AI and data hub for agri-food.

But to truly advance student exposure, non-agriculture institutions should consider doing more to connect students to career opportunities in agriculture. This requires fostering academic and industry relationships that could be catalyzed by non-agriculture academics attending existing agriculture conferences that typically only attract delegates from within the sector to learn about the opportunities for their students.

Curating workplace placements in agriculture would give students not enrolled in agriculture degrees a first-hand look at the sector’s career path potential. Greater work placement opportunities require greater engagement from the sector, which is important especially important at a time when disruptive technologies like AI are reducing entry level jobs. Sector engagement could build upon successful programs like the Youth Employment and Skills Program (YESP). Training and youth experience programs like YESP could also consider developing STEM, business or sustainability recruiting streams for youth that directly respond to skills demanded in the sector.

CASE STUDY

Sustainable Food Systems for Canada’s (SF4C) approach is leveraging a network of education institutions to deliver experiential learning for the next generation.

Kick-started by a federal research grant, SF4C is an agri-food training-and-innovation platform designed to connect learners inside and outside of agriculture fields of study and occupations to agri-innovation skills that the sector needs to grow. Launched in 2025, the pan-Canadian network includes 13 universities and colleges, Indigenous organizations, incubators, and industry innovation groups to offer the following:

  • Skills: Training of thousands of highly skilled, job-ready professionals by offering workplace experience and interdisciplinary training in agri-food innovation through upskilling platforms like micro-credentials.

  • Collaboration: Enabling cross-sectoral partnerships by creating a one-stop shop for participants to engage and use experiential learning and collaboration spaces that attract stakeholders for hackathons, pitch contests and design jams.

  • Mentoring: Reduces the “valley of death” in agri-food innovation by preparing start-ups for already-existing incubator and accelerator programs. Provides mentorship, connections to funding opportunities, and commercialization support to would-be entrepreneurs as they prepare to raise funds and pitch incubators and accelerators.

The network approach is pooling resources to reduce duplication in Canada’s agri-food training and is working to provide Canadians with real world experiences in agriculture.

Canadian agri-food R&D has sparked innovations that have reached billions: the Spartan apple, canola, and Yukon Gold potatoes, to name a few. It’s also made the country a global leader in transformative development such as greenhouse tomato production, animal genetics and welfare, and largescale grain production. But dwindling investment in R&D and roadblocks across the innovation pipeline has diminished the sector’s competitive edge. As a result, startups are leaving Canada, often going to the U.S., for funding and to test their innovations. And multinational agribusinesses are moving their R&D investments aboard.

Agriculture knowledge is in freefall: Investment in R&D is critical to sparking innovation and attracting talent. Canada’s federal, provincial, and territorial governments have boosted investment by $500 million for the current agriculture policy framework, Sustainable Canadian Agriculture Partnership (SCAP) (2023-2028), which is a five-year $3.5 billion funding pack. Still, Canada’s public investment in R&D has been in decline. According to OECD, agriculture knowledge generation has dropped by 15% over 10 yearsa.11 Meanwhile, Australia, Brazil, and the U.S. have seen an uptick in public spending. Canada’s federal investment in agriculture science and innovation is projected to decline even further, down 12% between now and 2027.12 These cuts challenge the government’s ability to participate in networks of R&D institutes and build impactful public-private partnerships.

Government support for commercializing R&D in agriculture is shrinking under its science and innovation portfolio. AgriInnovate, the federal program for targeted agriculture commercialization, has contracted 42% from $165 million (2013–2018) to $95 million (2023–2028).13

Private funding is changing: There is also a growing divide between industry and academia, as businesses have reduced their outsourced R&D funding to universities. And private investment for in-house research is also changing. While Canadian-owned agriculture companies continue to increase in-house R&D investment, up from $101 million in 2018 to $120 million in 2023, international companies investing in in-house agriculture R&D in Canada dropped from $60 million in 2018 to $40 million in 2023.14

Strong innovation hubs are often defined by clusters of universities, colleges, businesses and governments that collaborate along the innovation cycle—from idea generation to growth.15 In Canada, the prospects of building these hubs for agriculture are deteriorating, with the number of enterprises conducting agriculture-focused R&D down 29% over the past 10 years.16

Canada is not the first place innovators trial solutions: Over the past decade, Canada has fallen from third among all countries in agri-food technology investment value to tenth.17 18 Canada has the tools to fast-track R&D commercialization, but they are being under-utilized. These include mechanisms like the Canadian Intellectual Property Office (CIPO)’s Green Technologies Program, which can be used to position Canada as a strong competitor in agriculture technology. While this program’s utilization remains low, patents have a higher grant rate of 95% relative to 69% for standard patent applications.19 This is a potential competitive advantage for Canada in agriculture technologies that contribute to positive environmental outcomes as the United States Patent and Trademark Office terminates its Climate Change Mitigation Pilot Program. Yet, Canada has a steep hill to climb, as it’s not in the top five countries for filing patents in the top agriculture technology subdomains: Pest and disease management, crop adaptation and genetics, smart farming (e.g., sensors), livestock management, and mapping and imagery.20 Canada’s time to market for agriculture innovations would need to be addressed to attract more investment and Canada-based R&D, as Canada’s trade deficit across pesticides and agriculture chemicals has grown by 159% over the past 10 years.21

R&D incentives are not as lucrative as others in the OECD: Canada has strong tax incentives for R&D investments as a percentage of GDP, ranking 9th in the OECD. But when looking across its suite of R&D incentives, it’s lacking platforms for transformative match funding, ranking 23rd for direct R&D spending as a percentage of GDP among OECD nations.22 Programs that have cost-share funding opportunities for R&D and commercialization exist, including AgriScience and AgriInnovation. But generally, budget cuts, inefficiencies in program delivery, and some mismatch between research priorities and industry demand, risk underdelivering innovation.23

Foster an outcome-driven approach to boosting private demand for Canada-made agriculture R&D and commercialization. One option is to prioritize agriculture as a pilot sector under the forthcoming Canada Innovation Corporation (CIC). Prioritizing agriculture, which has a clear problem in innovation characterized by lacking R&D spending and commercialization, could be a business case for the rest of Canada on how to streamline and reorientate a sector’s approach to R&D to focus on delivering applicable results for the industry and the wider economy. 

CASE STUDY

GrowAG, AgriFutures’ digital platform is a centralized place to connect and invest in agri-innovation projects in Australia.

AgriFutures Australia is a centralized research and development institute with a mandate to leverage public and private funding—combining funds from industry taxes, government contributions, and private investments. It has a distinct mandate to serve the R&D needs of both specific levied industries and entirely new agricultural sectors. The unique positioning allows it to act as a catalyst for future industry growth, a function that is often fragmented across multiple organizations in other countries.

AgriFuture’s GrowAG platform helps address fragmentation in agriculture innovation by creating a one-stop shop of research projects, funding opportunities, startups, and new collaboration opportunities – streamlining access to opportunities for those looking to partner in R&D, commercialization and company growth.

The GrowAG platform is an innovation “gateway” that not only provides a clearing house service for domestic investors, researchers and start-ups but it also provides global users with a clear path to identify opportunities to invest in Australia’s agriculture innovation.

The people that make up Canada’s agriculture sector are champions of it. But the sector needs to raise its profile to emerge as a viable and desirable place to innovate and build careers.

Boosting engagement among young Canadians could give the agriculture sector a jolt of innovation as new blood enters the workforce and positions the sector as a renewed international force in agriculture talent, ideas and production.

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It was abundantly clear at Climate Week NYC last week that momentum for regenerative agriculture is building.

Regenerative agriculture is a key pathway to build natural capital wealth for farmers as they build up assets like soil health, clean water, and biodiversity, and reduce greenhouse (GHG) emissions. Financial mechanisms that mobilize investment in farmer adoption of regenerative agriculture cover a wide range of options—carbon markets, inset schemes, and government subsidies, and more. But they are not available to every farmer, and some, like sustainable finance products, are in their infancy. The market and policy environment that enables regenerative agriculture is therefore evolving.

During Climate Week, RBC Thought Leadership, along with Nature United, presented Unearthing Value, a new report on how nature can play a critical role in pro-growth agendas. Lisa Ashton, RBC’s Director of Agriculture Policy and co-author of the report, spent a few days at the NY conference.

Here’s some of what she heard:

  • Carbon tunnel vision is not all bad. Critics say that focusing solely on the climate benefits (carbon removal, GHG mitigation) of things like cover crops, tillage reduction and improved nutrient management, ignores the many other ecosystem services that regenerative agriculture can offer, including improved productivity, water filtration, and enhanced biodiversity. But this narrow focus has delivered real breakthroughs on GHG accounting, measurement and market access, that might not have happened if there wasn’t a concerted effort from governments, agri-food supply chains and the sustainability sector on the climate action benefits of regenerative agriculture. The breakthroughs in GHG measuring, reporting and verification protocols has provided a platform from which to build other regenerative agriculture benefits. For example, GHG protocols allow for accounting of soil carbon, which is a proxy for soil biodiversity, health, and resilience. This allows for other benefits to be bolted on to climate-focused initiatives like carbon insetting programs.

  • It’s time to get more value from dollars spent on regenerative agriculture. A few landmark investments include the $704 million On-Farm Climate Action Fund in Canada, the $4.2 billion from the United States Department of Agriculture’s Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities in the U.S., and PepsiCo’s $300 million-plus investment in regenerative agriculture. These dollars and others have started building the groundwork of socializing the importance of environmental resilience in farming systems at scale, building frameworks for best practices for farmers and agronomists, and agri-food supply chain programs. New dollars can build upon this foundation and go further in delivering funding directly to farmers to drive impact. Partnerships can also help make dollars work harder. Companies, governments, and farmers investing in the same practices and regions can match dollars and leverage partnerships to fill gaps in their own expertise, such as food companies partnering with agribusinesses that already have agronomists on staff to work with farmers on-the-ground.

  • Developing a rigid regenerative agriculture definition may not be a good use of time. There is still a push within the agriculture and sustainability sectors to define it. But drawing a boundary around what is and is not regenerative agriculture may leave some farmers and production systems outside of scope that are indeed adopting practices that deliver on the principle of regenerative, producing positive outcomes for the environment and farmers’ bottom lines. The tone was clear among stakeholders at the conference: focus on delivering programs that work for farmers and create measurable outcomes, and stop worrying about the definition of regenerative agriculture.

1. Product Carbon Footprints. An approach for agri-food companies to track the total amount of GHG emissions associated with the products they are purchasing throughout their journey along the supply chain. This approach differs from carbon offsetting and insetting, as the carbon footprint is directly tied to the food product. Product carbon footprints also allow for companies to achieve several supply chain ambitions, including influencing climate action, building transparency and traceability, and boosting product features for sustainability-minded consumers. While it’s an approach to address the issue of “freeloading companies that haven’t invested in regenerative agriculture, it has its own issues that stem from the granularity in data and supply chain connectivity that is required.

2. Regenerative agriculture is expanding from a business-to-business model to business-to-consumer with labelling on food packaging. Investments in regenerative agriculture has largely been driven by agri-food companies and agribusiness sustainability targets and a desire to build resilience in their sourcing region. Now, consumers are increasingly being engaged on regenerative agriculture labelling. With more front-of-package labelling promoting regenerative practices, consumers can pick products based on their conservation attributes. These labels are often backed by standards like the Rainforest Alliance’s Regenerative Agriculture Certification.

3. Investments in water are growing to build climate resilience. People are experiencing climate change effects most starkly through water. Farmers are no exception. Droughts, more heavy rainfall events, and unseasonal precipitation are adding more volatility to farm management. Investments and strategies to build water resilience in agriculture are growing. Examples include the European Union’s Water Resilience Strategy released in Summer 2025, which features a water saving strategy target for 40% of agriculture land by 2030 and infrastructure investments in irrigation systems in Alberta and the Niagara region of Ontario.

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  • Natural capital remains an underused economic engine. The GDP of Canada’s nature-based sectors, including forestry, agriculture, mining and fisheries, grew 0.3% slower, year-over-year, compared to the rest of the economy over the past quarter century. A similar trend is observed in the United States and the United Kingdom.

  • Ignoring nature threatens prosperity. More than half of the world’s economy, roughly $78 trillion, depends on nature, from food to tourism to construction. Canada, the U.S. and the U.K. are looking to build back their economies, but the nature base their economies rely on for long-term growth is depleting, and its true value is not accounted.

  • There is a generational opportunity to leverage natural capital wealth through nation-building agendas. Countries that track and grow natural capital alongside GDP can unlock growth and attract global investors hunting for investable natural capital projects. With finance mobilizing to close the nature finance gap, demand is rising—and an estimated $580 billion is required annually by 2030. That will increase to nearly $940 billion by 2050.

  • Private capital is critical to closing the gap – and scaling. Governments currently account for 82% ($222 billion) of nature finance. Private sector would need stronger policy signals and assurance that their investments will generate returns.

  • Nature’s place in finance and environmental markets is growing but remains underrepresented. Nature is a small segment of sustainability finance. In 2025, nature-based carbon offsets have represented 13% of voluntary carbon credits but hold more than half of the annual potential of carbon credit creation.

  • Policy integration, AI, and…yes, accounting can get nature on the balance sheet and growth agenda. For Canada, a timely test for all three is the implementation of the Critical Minerals Strategy and emerging major mining projects.It starts withincluding Indigenous values and knowledge systems in natural capital accounting frameworks.

RBC launched the Climate Action Institute in 2023 to support Canadians in our collective journey to net-zero, with a commitment to inform, engage and act on all aspects of the climate challenge. Protecting, conserving, and growing natural assets is a critical part of the journey to net-zero.

Nature is a foundational asset in growing our economy. This is a timely issue as advanced economies like Canada, the U.K., and the U.S., push forward nation-building policy agendas and projects. But there’s a problem: Nature and the people who steward it–including Indigenous communities, farmers, fisherpersons, and fosterers–are often left off the balance sheet. This is the issue that the RBC Climate Action Institute and Nature United, the Canadian affiliate of the global conservation organization, The Nature Conservancy, dig into in this report.

Building, consuming, and exporting more to boost GDP inevitably strains the forests, soils, and waters that make all growth possible. But pro-growth agendas also present a generational opportunity–to treat nature not as a cost to manage but as an asset to build, value, and leverage.

More than $78 trilliona of the global economy–roughly half of total GDP–is highly to moderately dependent on nature.1 Yet, national GDPs count nature only after it is extracted–fish, grain, timber–while mostly ignoring ecosystem services from nature. This includes carbon storage in agricultural soils, water filtration in healthy peatlands, and cultural and biodiversity benefits of intact forests. Valued at more than $200 trillion, ecosystem services remain largely invisible in economic accounts, leaving both a major source of growth and a growing source of risk unrecognized.2

Accounting nature’s true value has been an agenda item for global leaders at nature and climate change meetings for more than 30 years. When Brazil last hosted the world at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio, leaders signed the first global agreements on climate and biodiversity. This Fall, at COP30, leaders are gathering again in Brazil and have the chance to finally put nature at the center of economic strategy.

Securing finance for nature continues to be a challenge. The vast majority is coming from governments, as industry has largely steered clear due, in part, to uncertainty around investment returns. Global public and private nature finance amounts to roughly $270 billion per year. To close the nature finance gap by 2030 more than $580 billion is required annually. That climbs to about $940 billion a year by 2050.3

A marriage between nature and pro-growth policy agendas provides an unprecedented opportunity to leverage nature as an investable asset. Building natural capital wealth provides a pathway to reboot nature-based sectors, including agriculture and forestry, and boost nature’s role in the built economy, including green infrastructure in housing developments. Investing in nature also mitigates economic losses, including the $3.3 trillion at risk, globally, if ecosystem services such as wild pollination or marine fisheries collapse due to over extraction.4

Canada, the U.S. and the U.K. have all set pro-growth agendas and offer three policy and economic models for nature integration. Roughly 7% of Canada’s GDP is from a nature-based sector–agriculture, mining, forestry and fisheries. Collectively, these sectors’ GDP growth has been 0.3% slower than the rest of the economy over the past quarter century.5 In the U.S., the Federal Reserve estimates that extreme weather events can negatively impact the country’s GDP by 0.5% annually.6 And natural protection, like coastal wetlands, are disappearing to developments, intensifying the impacts. If current trends persist, the U.K.’s management of its natural capital could cause GDP to shrink by roughly 5% by 2030.7

Nature is now both a reportable risk and an investable asset class. Yet, implementation is uneven. More than 90 countries, including Canada and Australia, have adopted natural capital accounting frameworks aligned with the United Nation’s System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA). But a gap remains in fully integrating natural capital into national GDP accounts and using natural capital accounting to guide large-scale investments. In the private sector, some regions–like the European Union–mandate sustainability reporting and encourage alignment with nature-related finance frameworks, such as the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD).

While the landscape of nature accounting and finance standards remains messy, these examples show that the policy and reporting scaffolding to treat nature as a cash-flow–relevant asset exists. Now, it’s time to streamline nature governance, improve accessibility for companies and governments by applying disruptive technologies like AI, and integrate it into pro-growth policy.

The Canadian model: Rich in resources, searching for new growth drivers

Canada is abundant in natural assets—home to 25% of the world’s wetland, 24% of boreal forests, and 30% of the world’s freshwater—and, as noted above, roughly 7% of the country’s GDP directly depends on their stability and productivity and this dependency trickles down the supply chain.8

Canada’s approach to integrating nature into economic growth is driven by funding and finance packages, target setting, including the 2030 Nature Strategy, and the expansion of national parks and ecological corridors. These investments and commitments are enabling progress on conservation and nature protection. Yet, existing policy measures fall short in capitalizing on nature accounting frameworks to return that value to the people on the ground at scale.

Canada’s challenge with integrating nature into its pro-growth policy is balancing its natural resource dependent growth with its commitment to United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, while also upholding its legislated climate commitments. A complex landscape to navigate. But a necessary one to ensure Canada’s nation-building projects do not undermine Indigenous peoples’ rights and knowledge systems, nor hollow out one if its greatest assets in nature. 

The U.K. model: A natural resource-strapped country with outsized ambitions for use

The U.K. is one of the most nature depleted countries in the world with only half of its native wildlife intact.9 The country’s economy is primarily driven by service sectors like finance and real estate, while nature-based sectors account for roughly 2% of the economy.10 But, the country’s intense competition for natural assets and the rate of their depletion has ignited momentum for nature finance domestically. This momentum includes a call for recommendations on how the government can help expand the private sector’s role in nature recovery under the U.K. Government’s pro-growth strategy, Plan for Change.

A key component of the Plan for Change is the country’s ambitions to build 1.5 million homes and fast-track planning decisions on at least 150 major economic infrastructure projects, including the establishment of AI Growth Zones for data centres. Through the U.K.’s biodiversity net gain (BNG) and nutrient neutrality policies, a market-based opportunity for landowners and stewards to build up natural assets is integrated into these developments.11 This demonstrates that nature-focused U.K. policy is increasing and aligned with pro-growth policies.

But the country is still expected to fall short in both addressing GDP loses from natural capital depletion and achieving targets, such as conserving 30% of its biodiversity by 2030.12 The U.K. presents a challenge of nature restoration at scale, amidst intensifying and competing interests in natural assets. The water and land demands of housing, agriculture, and AI data centres expansion stresses the need for greater natural capital planning that informs nature positive economic growth options, beyond offsetting impacts.13

The U.S. model: An economic giant veering off course in valuing nature

Roughly 3% of the U.S.’s GDP is from nature-based sectors. And more than 10% of its GDP is highly exposed to nature, including industries that are down the supply chain of nature-based sectors, like food manufacturing.14 And yet, more than 40% of its natural ecosystems are said to be at risk of collapsing.15 In 2023, the Statistics for Environmental-Economic Decisions (SEED) program–informed by the SEEA framework–quantified the value of U.S. natural assets. This exercise valued private land at $43 trillion, about 30% of the U.S.’s net wealth. This positioned the federal government to make informed investments in conservation programs and green infrastructure developments, including the $1.3 billion delivered under the Inflation Reduction Act for urban greening.16

Under the Trump Administration, there has been a shift from accounting renewable natural assets on extracting non renewables. This is most notable under the Unleashing American Energy executive order, which revokes guidance to federal agencies to consider ecosystem services like a wetland’s contribution to flood management in project reviews. Newly proposed amendments to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act could also jeopardize a more than 100-year-old revenue-sharing agreement between the federal government and rural communities in forest management. This longstanding agreement returns 25% of the federal government’s profits from commercial logging to rural communities–where the logging takes place but doesn’t generate local property tax–to invest in local infrastructure. The amendments to the Act could redirect those funds back to the federal government and raise the minimum logging requirements.

Sidelining national efforts that account natural assets alongside GDP risks overlooking a source of economic growth and risk. The polarizing nature of U.S. federal politics calls for a rebranding of natural assets and their management that can withstand changes in administration. Most pressing is a communication strategy that stresses nature’s value within the federal administrations focus on a production-based economy.

Finance and funding: The tidal wave for stimulating growth

FundsDedicated investment funds that finance projects aimed at conserving, restoring, or sustainably managing natural capital.
GrantsNon-repayable funds given to support nature-related activities. 
SubsidiesFinancial incentives or support to encourage environmentally beneficial activities (e.g., tax breaks, or reduced fees)
BondsA fixed income debt instrument where proceeds from investors are specifically used for nature-based projects.
LoansBorrowed funds for nature projects that must be repaid with interest or improved lending conditions.
Debt-for-nature-swapsA deal where part of a country’s foreign debt is forgiven in exchange for commitments to fund conservation projects.                 

Funds and financing can open the floodgates in creating a role for nature-based solutions in the economy. However, governments are largely footing the bill–providing 82% of nature finance flows, globally17–making it difficult to raise the funds required for transformational projects.

Project Finance for Permanence (PFP) in Canada is a breakthrough conservation finance model for matching long-term government, private, and community funding. The first PFP in Canada, Great Bear Rainforest, born from a community well-being crisis in First Nations and conflict over logging, is now repositioning nature as a source of prosperity and enabling Indigenous-led conservation and economic development opportunities. Since the inception of the Great Bear Rainforest PFP in 2007, more than $444 million has been invested.18

CASE STUDY

Where: Great Bear Rainforest and Haida Gwaii, British Columbia, Canada

Long-term conservation finance steered by First Nations’ vision for economic development and conservation is multiplying the magnitude and durability of opportunities for communities, businesses, and nature conservation.

Driver:

A crisis in First Nations community well-being and an economy heavily reliant on extractive industries in B.C. in the 1980s and 1990s underpinned the growing conflict over natural resource management and limited economic and community development opportunities resulting in First Nations with unemployment rates as high as 80%.37 This unsustainable model came to a head in the 1990s. The First Nations-led movement, including War of the Woods, the historic Clayoquot Sound Protests in 1993, and with support from environmentalist groups, demanded protection of First Nation’s territories and access to economic opportunities. This movement led to the B.C. government initiating a strategic land-use planning process. This was a key step in making way for transformational change where prior piecemeal attempts had failed to improve community well-being, and economic and environmental conditions.

Resulting from the demand for change, was the creation of Coast Funds in 2007, a conservation finance institute with a mandate to implement portions of the Great Bear Rainforest Agreements. Coast Funds was created out of mutual recognition by First Nations, environmental groups, industry, and government that community well-being is critical to a sustainable economy and responsible management of natural resources.

Mechanism for change

First Nations and environmental organizations raised $60 million in private funds in 2006 to create the Coast Conservation Endowment Fund, with $4 million of those funds going towards conservation planning and operational start-up costs. One year later, the provincial and federal governments came to the table with match funding, and the Coast Economic Development Fund was born. These two funds, initially amounting to $120 million, are governed by the Coast Fund’s board of directors, which are appointed by First Nations, the B.C. Government and philanthropic foundations. The board oversees the funds’ finances and investments in Nations, who bring forward projects for the board to review.

The governance structure of the board has evolved as the foundations have consolidated their governance roles and relinquished their voting rights to elevate the influence of First Nations in steering the direction of Coast Funds, giving them equal control with Crown governments. This shift in governance advances the vision of Indigenous-led economic development and stewardship being led by Indigenous Nations. 

In the making

First Nations have invested more than $120 million from Coasts Funds and leveraged $324 million of their own funds and additional funding sources. The $444 million has been invested across economic sectors, including tourism, manufacturing, forestry, and aquaculture.

Complementary to funds from Coast Funds, Nations are generating carbon credit sales under the Atmospheric Benefit Sharing Agreement between two regional Indigenous organizations, their respective First Nations member Nations, and the provincial government. These agreements lay out the framework for sharing carbon benefits like offset credits associated with the Great Bear Rainforest agreements that avoid deforestation.  

Taan Forest, a Haida-owned forestry company, is one example of stacking funds and supporting carbon credit creation to advance sustainable forestry businesses. The company leveraged dollars from Coast Funds to develop an industrial park that enabled Haida entrepreneurs to participate in the value-add forestry sector.38 Taan Forest provides economic opportunities while protecting the Nation’s environmental and cultural assets by securing the forestry tenure for 60% of forestry operations on Haida Gwaii.39

Impact

Coast Funds has been a catalyst for Indigenous-led-and-owned economic development initiatives, which includes the growth or establishment of 144 businesses, the creation of more than 1,400 jobs, including 850 fulltime roles, with salaries totaling more than $70 million.40 Recognizing the Nations’ forestry stewardship and its role in climate action under the Atmospheric Benefit Sharing Agreement, the B.C. government has purchased more than $56.5 million in carbon credits from the Great Bear Carbon Credit Limited Partnership and $6.8 million from the Na̲nwak̲olas Offset Limited Partnership.41

On-the-ground, First Nations have led more than 444 habitat restoration and research initiatives benefiting species with cultural and economic significance, including salmon, kelp and trees. Taan Forest’s practices are aligned with Forest Steward Council Certification, Rainforest Alliance Certification, and the conservation standards of the Haida nations Land Use Order, enabling their sustainable forestry practices to be recognized by their supply chain. The latter ensures sensitive habitats are protected, including bear dens, bird nesting areas and reducing the allowable cut for logging, enhancing habitat protection and restoration.42

Lessons

Funding allocation criteria focused on scale can lead to inequity. The original Great Bear Rainforest funding allocation model incentivized higher levels of conservation by providing more benefits to First Nations that committed to large-scale biodiversity protection through the protection of intact forest ecosystems. As a result, First Nations with the largest conservation area and populations received the largest allocations, while First Nations’ whose lands had already been intensely logged, and those with smaller populations, received less. Recognizing this challenge, First Nations decided on the funding allocation formula for the Great Bear Sea PFP to ensure equity and account for nuances in scale and impact. Through the Great Bear Sea PFPs, all participating First Nations receive a baseline of support to advance their economic development and stewardship goals.

Great bear rainforest
Photo credit: Andrew S Wright

Building upon the momentum of the Great Bear Rainforest PFP, Coast Funds is now also overseeing the delivery of funds under the Great Bear Sea PFP. This PFP has an initial $335 million in funding, securing long-term Indigenous-led financing for Indigenous-led stewardship and development.19

Expanding conservation financing

Debt products for nature-based solutions can provide upfront capital, but projects must deliver competitive returns for investors and financers. Debt-for-nature swapping, for example, often engages development banks to help keep the cost of borrowing down and provide greater assurance to private investors. The debt-swapping market has more than doubled in the past year, totaling $3.6 billion.20 However, some nature finance experts say the structure for debt-for-nature swapping has expanded beyond its original purpose. They suggest that involving development banks and agencies in building natural capital helps build financing needed for projects as it reduces risks for other investors. However, the country receiving the funds should also consider how the debt swapping impacts their ability to control how their natural capital wealth is managed.

Green and sustainability-linked bonds and loans have also grown into significant debt products, with nearly $15 trillion in value to-date.21 Yet, nature focused debt remains a relatively small slice of total bond funds allocated. Over the past year, less than 10% of proceeds from green and sustainability-linked bonds explicitly went towards nature-based projects. While nature-based projects mature in their ability to guarantee returns for investors, the government and impact investor’s roles in scaling debt products for nature remain critical.

Beyond funding and finance, governments can also use their authority to recognize high-integrity nature-based projects to attract private dollars. Environment and Climate Change Canada, for instance, is piloting a Conservation Exchange. In the pilot, the federal government is testing an approach that recognizes the proven benefits of conservation projects funded by companies through government approved biodiversity certificates.22 Building from a long-term funding relationship, insurance firm Aviva and the Nature Conservancy of Canada are leveraging the Conservation Exchange pilot to deliver value through nature’s role in risk management and revitalizing working lands, like range pastures on restored native grasslands.

CASE STUDY

Where: Saskatchewan, Canada

Nature is an asset and a risk. Insurers and those managing working lands like grasslands for livestock grazing face this reality every day. Investing in long-term projects that restore depleted lands and their natural ecosystem functions provides a gateway for nature to contribute to economic resilience.

Driver:

Roughly 75% of Canada’s native grasslands are gone.43 Canadian grasslands stitch together the prairie provinces, store two- to three-billion tonnes of carbon, and are home to a dwindling number of ranchers, livestock herds, and native species that now make up one of the world’s most endangered ecosystems.44 Grassland loss is driven by land-use conversion for cropland production, resource extraction from mining and energy production, and urban sprawl. While these activities contribute to growing Canada’s economy, the loss of grasslands intensifies resource depletion and environmental risks, including droughts.45 Extreme weather, wildfires and the impact on natural and built assets is a material risk for the economy and a growing cost for insurance companies. The summer of 2024 was the most destructive and expensive season in Canada from extreme weather, with weather event losses totaling $7.7billon.46

Mechanism for change

Restoration does not happen overnight, which is a deterrent for investors who want immediate results. But with some foresight and common ground, The Nature Conservancy of Canada (NCC) and Aviva engaged in a 7-year partnership to restore grasslands across nearly 450 acres in Saskatchewan. Restoration investments are typically short term (1-3 yrs) and focused on immediate outcomes, not allowing for a multi-phase approach that restoration often requires to be durable. Aviva’s investment breaks that cycle.

To strengthen the partnership, government recognition of the grassland restoration projects is helping boost its appeal. Environment and Climate Change Canada is piloting a Conservation Exchange, providing companies with certificates that recognize their investment in high-integrity nature-based projects that have proven to deliver real biodiversity impacts. This exchange is a new approach to attract capital to build natural assets and provides companies with the opportunity to obtain government issued biodiversity certificates that acknowledge their investment, making associated sustainability claims more rigorous. NCC’s grassland restoration projects, supported by Aviva in Saskatchewan, are part of the Conservation Exchange pilot. 

In the making

Native seed production in Canada is limited by a lack of capital investment and long-term contracts, making it difficult for local growers to scale grassland restoration. To address this, the partnership with Aviva allowed NCC to establish a multi-year agreement with a native seed grower: Skinner Native Seeds. The upfront investment from Aviva reduced financial risk for Skinner Native Seeds and supported a scale up in production, improving restoration outcomes for grasslands and strengthening the resilience of Saskatchewan’s native seed industry.

Impact

The benefits are multi-dimensional but grounded in restoring productive working landscapes that combine opportunities to support conservation and agriculture production.

Through the Conservation Exchange pilot expert evaluation, the projects received positive scores, overall, for species and ecosystem restoration and improved probability of persistence for focal species, which serve as a proxy for broader biodiversity status. At the Old Man on His Back grassland restoration site in Saskatchewan, habitat for Species at Risk and grazing capacity is being expanded by increasing available native vegetation. To enable this restoration project and to increase seed production, Skinner Native Seeds estimates wildflower seed production at their facilities will increase by up to 200 lbs., – in 2027, leading to the expansion of roughly 40 species of native wildflower to support biodiversity and climate-resilience in the prairies.

Government recognition of these biodiversity benefits adds credibility and transparency, allowing companies and the public to understand the scale of the impact and the species and ecosystems expected to benefit.

Lesson

Nature restoration project developers looking to scale investment need to master communicating outcomes in a way that resonates with investors. They also need to play a role in educating investors on the importance of time in delivering meaningful and long-lasting impacts on the ground. This communication and education starts with knowing the audience. Understanding investors’ objectives in nature-based solutions–including mitigating risks, ESG claims, and meeting climate targets–is paramount in designing nature restoration projects that meet shared objectives among communities, conservationist, companies, and governments.

Nature Conservancy of Canada
Photo credit: Nature Conservancy of Canada

Streamlining policies to optimize public investment

While governments are driving investment in solutions, they may also be undercutting progress. The United Nations Environment Program finds that public finance flows to nature-based solutions are less than one-tenth of public spending on environmentally harmful subsidies. This issue is especially of concern in agriculture. Farmers in Canada, for instance, can receive funds for sustainable practices under the On-Farm Climate Action Fund, supporting the adoption of cover crops and improved fertilizer practices. And they can access government subsidized crop insurance, which some farmers are finding can incentivize growing crops on marginal land that would otherwise be uneconomical.23 24 Similar examples can be found in the U.S. under the Federal Crop Insurance Program. Some states are taking steps to address the mismatch between government safety nets and supports for sustainable agriculture by offering programs such as insurance premium discounts for farmers who adopt sustainable practices, like the Iowa Department of Agriculture & Land Stewardship’s Crop Insurance Discount Program for cover crop adoption.

Governments and the private sector have also struggled to expand market-based incentives for nature-based projects. Some farmers are taking note and using government grants to kickstart grassroot initiatives that give them control over how the value of ecosystem services is integrated into their business and recognized in the marketplace. The Prince Edward Island Federation of Agriculture, for example, learned early in their GHG mitigation journey the importance of robust data collection and monitoring of soil carbon to tap into carbon markets. Spurred by local leadership, the federation is helping position farmers to align practices with carbon offset protocols and build algorithms and data standards to unlock carbon value and improve efficiency.

CASE STUDY

Where: Prince Edward Island, Canada 

With sights on carbon credits, Prince Edward Island farmers learned that the efficiencies they gained from practices that reduce GHG emissions were indeed the real economic opportunity.

Driver:

A desire to incentivize farmers for their climate action was the impetus for P.E.I. Federation of Agriculture (PEIFA) in building soil carbon and GHG emissions measurement infrastructure required to connect farmers to carbon markets, while maintaining ownership of their data.

Farmers can be leaders in advancing climate solutions. Responsible management of inputs like nitrogen fertilizer that are essential tools in growing healthy crops and yields is a key part of farmers’ role in driving climate action. Potato production represents most of the agricultural land use on P.E.I., roughly 86,500 acres, and potatoes are a nutrient dense crop to grow, presenting an opportunity to explore how efficiencies in fertilizer use can be incentivized through carbon credits that reward reductions of net GHG emissions.

Mechanism for change

A mix of government funding and provincial leadership spearheaded by the P.E.I. Federation of Agriculture, and the launch of the offset protocol for improved agricultural land management on VERRA’s voluntary offset carbon registry, together, created the right conditions for the federation’s Agriculture Internet of Things (AgIoT) to come to life. AgIoT is a farmer-owned, scalable, data-agnostic, and real-time monitoring platform.

Money, project leadership, and a protocol that outlines the standard on how to enhance soil carbon and reduce GHG emissions are all necessary pieces to producing carbon credits. But, for nature-based projects, like this, arguably the hardest part is the data collection. This is why AgIoT, a technology solution for farmers by farmers, was created.

In the making

To access carbon markets, projects need baseline measurements, from which farmers adopt best management practices like precision nitrogen application or cover crops to show progress. The P.E.I. Federation of Agriculture developed the ‘P.E.I. Low Carbon Cropping Initiative’ with 4,800 acres now enrolled, forming an offset market-compliant project with the goal of registering the project on a carbon market. At the start of the project, the federation and its farmers had an ‘Aha moment’: farms did not have the existing capacity to collect data at a level required for accessing carbon markets. As a result, they set out to automate farmers’ engagement with AgIoT as much as possible.

AgIoT automates data collection and processing, with the goal of reducing the burden on farmers to manage and maintain their data. In-field sensors provide real-time data collection that automatically uploads to the cloud and is accessible to the user through the AgIoT dashboard. AgIoT’s soil carbon and GHG algorithms are estimating agriculture carbon in soils and GHG emissions with real farmer data to determine impacts on net GHG emissions AgIoT platform.

Impact

In 2024, a semi-automated software version of AgIoT algorithms was used to model pilot farms participating in the Low Carbon Cropping Initiative. It analyzed crop history submissions, recent soil cores, and a process-based model for GHG emissions and soil carbon estimation. The results from the pilot farms showed that the farms’ GHG emissions reduction are between 50 kilograms and 150 kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalent per hectare. The piloted practices including precision nitrogen fertilizer management also showed that farmers could save $50 to $120 per hectare on inputs. A direct result of optimizing a production system to drive positive economic and environmental outcomes.

If these modelled efficiencies were applied to the 86,500 acres of annual potato production, it could result in reducing the equivalent of 1,750 to 5,250 tonnes of carbon dioxide per year. That’s just from improving farmers’ data resolution to inform greater efficiencies.

Lesson

Carbon markets for nature-based projects is not for the faint at heart. It’s costly. It’s time consuming. And it’s complicated to measure, monitor, report and verify net GHG reductions from biological systems over time because there are many variables to consider that are out of a human’s control. But when you have the right mix of technical skills on the ground to build and apply data solutions like AgIoT, pursing carbon credits can be a pathway to unlock new innovations and efficiencies for farmers.

A farm operation that can collect the necessary data for accessing carbon markets will have a tremendous opportunity to improve decision making and profitability, which is more valuable than the actual carbon credit.

.

Harnessing markets to promote nature and raise revenue

Offset marketsTrading system where those wanting to offset their environmental impacts compensate others for creating environmental benefits elsewhere.
Inset schemesReducing or compensating environmental impacts within a company’s own value chain. A company invests in nature and climate-positive projects directly linked to its suppliers, operations, or distribution. 
PremiumsPaying extra for sustainable products or services to cover the higher cost of low-carbon or nature-friendly options.
Consumers or buyers along the supply chain pay a higher price or give preferential treatment for sustainable production or nature protection.
Market accessGaining entry to markets by meeting specific sustainability standards or certifications.

Marketplaces for ecosystem services cover a growing range of outcomes, including water quality trading schemes in the U.S., emerging biodiversity markets, like those in Australia, and compliance carbon markets in the EU. Yet, market activity is primarily focused on producing credits from greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, removals and avoidances through compliance and voluntary carbon schemes. Cumulatively, $15.3 billion in credits have been traded on the voluntary offset carbon market. Peaking in 2021 at $2.6 billion, there has been a steady fall in market activity with 2024 being a 5-year low with traded credits valued at $727 million.25 This decline can be attributed to compounding factors including the market going through a maturity phase with the onboarding of additional integrity and assurance guardrails, and macroeconomic volatility since the coronavirus pandemic.

Despite the market downturn, nature is banking on a maturing carbon market to drive finance. The voluntary offset market is still going through a transition phase, focused on raising the quality of credits on the market and aligning with compliance market standards. An early sign from the voluntary offset market reset is a higher demand for quality, nature-based projects that produce GHG removal credits. It’s an opportunity for nature-based projects that actively pull carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through active management and restoration of carbon sinks, including wetlands, croplands, forests, grasslands, and sea bottoms. Recent developments in nature-based offset protocols provide the frameworks needed to produce GHG removal credits that are in demand.

Blue carbon, for example, has the potential to remove three gigatons of carbon from the atmosphere per year, equivalent to more than 3% of global emissions.26 With the development of blue carbon protocols like the Tidal Wetland and Seagrass Restoration on VERRA’s carbon offset registry, communities and landowners restoring seagrasses can see returns from their conservation efforts in the marketplace. A seagrass restoration project in the eastern coastal bays of Virginia that includes researchers, conservationists, the local community, and the Commonwealth of Virginia serves as a proof of concept for how to bring a blue carbon project to the marketplace, including the amendment of laws, as the state owns the coastal sea bottom.

While nature-based protocols have allowed for increased market access, nature-based carbon offsets account for only 13% of voluntary carbon credits issued in 2025 to-date but hold more than 50% of annual carbon credit potential.27

CASE STUDY

Where: Cairngorms National Park, Scotland

Presenting the risks and returns to investors positioned this restoration project to attract patient investments and in return benefit from long-term contracts that reduce project costs and uncertainty.

Driver:

Scotland’s peatlands cover a fifth of the country’s land mass and store roughly 1.6-billion tonnes of carbon. Peatlands also play a critical role in water filtration and flows, influencing the water supply for neighbouring cities like Dundee and Aberdeen.47 But more than 80% of the country’s peatlands are depleted.48This depletion is caused by a combination of factors, including drainage for peat extraction, livestock grazing, and planting of non-native species like some conifers tree plantations. Today, degraded peatlands account for more than 3.5% of the U.K.’s emissions, as well as increasing flood risk and habitat loss.

The Cairngorms Peatland Restoration Project, one of the largest of its kind in Scotland, is an award-winning collaboration between landowners, the Cairngorms National Park Authority, Palladium, an impact consultancy, and Revere, the coordinator of the collaboration. The project blends public funding and private finance to share risk in peatland restoration and enable durability in nature finance solutions. More than 1,700 acres of peatland restoration is under way in Cairngorms National Park, across nine sites.

Mechanism for change

The project combines government funding via Peatland ACTION, a government program, with private finance through the sale of carbon offset credits verified by the Peatland Code–a voluntary certification standard for peatland restoration projects in the U.K. The Peatland Code ensures that projects are credible, providing assurance to investors through independent validation and verification. 

Carbon benefits from nature-based projects can take years to verify. As a result, revenue from carbon credit sales can be slow to materialize. This presented a challenge: find long-term investors that understand nature-based carbon and are willing to wait on their returns. Santander U.K. and Respira, an impact investor, met the challenge and provided partial funding, which facilitated an agreement with a British law firm that purchased some of the project’s Pending Issuance Units (PIUs) verified under the Peatland Code. Such patient investors were key to funding the upfront project costs.

At the start of the project, the collaborators agreed to allocate 10% of the project’s profits to a local community trust. A commitment that reflects rural Scotland’s community values and the collaborators’ responsibility to the local economy.

In the making

Restoration begins with an assessment of the peatland’s health, including measuring the depth of peat and the extent of degradation. A key indicator of success in peatland restoration is raising the water table. When peatlands dry out, they are more likely to degrade and emit GHGs, damaging the rich ecosystems that they support.

Approaches to raising the water table include blocking man-made drains or ‘grips’ and restoring erosion features by creating ‘bunds’ like an embankment or dam, and reprofiling or revegetating areas of bare peat. The Peatland Code provides a methodology for calculating the GHG emissions impact of these approaches by assessing the pre- and post-restoration condition of the peatland.

Impact

The restoration projects across the nine sites are delivering carbon avoidance over a 30-year project term, amounting to the equivalent of more than 44,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere. The project is also enhancing natural habitats conserving wildlife species such as golden plover, red grouse, meadow pipit, and curlew. Healthy peatlands also naturally filter water, reducing pollutant and nutrient levels.

The project collaborators have also worked with the Scottish Land Commission and the Scottish Government to develop economic benefits beyond financial returns from carbon credits, such as employment opportunities for contractors. This provides immediate, tangible benefits for local communities while the 10% financial commitment will be invested in the community over the long-term.

Lesson

Current carbon market prices and government funds are insufficient in covering project costs alone.  Attracting equity finance requires establishing offtake agreements that provide investors with the right assurances that make them feel confident in the project’s risk management and long-term viability.

In addition to greater value in dollars spent on restoration over long-term projects, longer-term subcontracts bring more certainty to the project’s budget and allow the team to more accurately forecast and price the carbon credits it sells to companies. Having a stable cost base means it is easier to calculate the revenues needed to make the project profitable.

Photo credit: Ed Smith

Patient investors are key to big nature returns

Bringing quality nature-based projects to market takes time. The long-term nature of ecological changes and the inherent difficulty in attributing specific, measurable biodiversity outcomes to a single intervention adds to the complexity and cost.

Carbon offset creation from nature-based projects, for instance, can take decades to verify. This presented those involved in a peatland restoration project in Scotland’s highlands with a challenge: find investors who are willing to wait patiently for their returns. One way is to seek advanced market commitments from buyers through pending credit returns for carbon removals or biodiversity benefits that have higher value in the marketplace but take longer to generate, compared to renewable energy projects that can often generate credits the day they are turned on. A recent precedent is the Symbiosis Coalition, made up of Microsoft, Google, Salesforce, Meta and McKinsey & Company. These large-scale organizations provide assurance to more risk-averse investors.

CASE STUDY

Where: Eastern shores of Virginia, United States

Community, research and conservation leadership led to the largest seagrass restoration project in the world. Changes to state legislation made it possible to connect the project to the carbon marketplace– creating an additional source of funds to invest back into conservation. 

Driver:

The Virginia Coast Reserve is the longest expanse of coastal wilderness along the East Coast: 75 miles long and covering 133,000 acres of conserved and protected land. Stakeholders of the coastline, like The Nature Conservancy who own and actively manage more than 40,000 of these acres, are contributing to the natural ecosystem and local economy in more ways than one–boosting biodiversity of finfish and shellfish and protecting and restoring natural barriers that protect communities from extreme weather events like hurricanes. But there was a missing piece in this growing, vibrant ecosystem.

For more than 70 years, eelgrass, an aquatic grass that grows in shallow bays, was thought to have been eliminated along the coastal bays of Virginia due to a pathogen outbreak and the Storm of 1933. But in 1999, a small patch was found, indicating that a source of seeds was drifting, likely from Chincoteague Bay, and generated optimism that eelgrass recovery was possible.49

Eelgrass restoration has multiple benefits, including supporting commercial and recreational fisheries by acting as a nursery for fish and shellfish, preventing erosion of shorelines, and carbon sequestration. Planting eelgrass and the associated carbon sequestered in the sea bottom through eelgrass roots is called “blue carbon,” and can remain in the sea bottom for thousands of years, making it one of nature’s longest-term solutions to climate change.

Mechanism for change

The approach to scaling eelgrass restoration in Virginia is a model for how to collaborate on a complex nature-based project. The Nature Conservancy, Virginia Institute of Marine Science, The University of Virginia, and the Commonwealth of Virginia all contribute in different ways—reseeding, community engagement, measurement and monitoring, and policy changes.

This project is also a proof of concept for how to bring blue carbon projects to carbon markets. While producing carbon credits was not the driving force for this collaboration to flourish, it did present an opportunity to help the team finance their restoration efforts into the future. But positioning the eelgrass restoration project to produce carbon credits for sale required protocols to be developed and policies to change.

It started with the creation of the offset protocol, Tidal Wetland and Seagrass Restoration, on Verra’s carbon offset registry in 2015. This enabled the project to follow a standardized approach to measure, report and verify the impacts of the reseeded eelgrass on carbon removals. The second missing piece was positioning the Commonwealth of Virginia to own and sell carbon credits from nature restoration projects, which was a practice that was not recognized in its legislation. The Commonwealth of Virginia owns all subaquatic bottomlands in the state, and with that comes the legal right to the carbon stored there. Amendments to laws, has enabled the state to participate in carbon projects and requires any revenue resulting from the sale of carbon credits to be invested back into the project—to be used to implement additional monitoring and research or to cover administrative costs.

In the making

Direct seeding of eelgrass is producing credits in the restoration project, further expanding seagrass coverage in the region. The Virginia Institute of Marine Science leads the restoration practices, and The Nature Conservancy engages the community who have played apivotal role in collecting more than 72 -million seeds. These seeds have been spread onto 700 acres to help accelerate the natural spread of eelgrass, which now covers 10,000 acres in South, Spider Crab, Hog Island and Cobb Island bays. The area enrolled in the carbon market project, meeting the offset protocol criteria, is roughly 3,000 acres – including restored eelgrass and available sea bottom for restoration to expand

Impact

The project is expected to deliver the equivalent of more than 42,000 tons of carbon dioxide (CO2e) captured from the atmosphere over 30 years, raising $1.4 million for continued research and management of the eelgrass restoration in coastal Virginia.

The project’s economic benefits go well beyond carbon credits. Bay scallops were abundant in the coastal area in the early 1930s, supporting commercial fishing. But the disappearance of eelgrass resulted in the loss of the bay scallop’s preferred habitat. Successful restoration of eelgrass could pave the way for the potential restoration of scallops–a nature-built pathway for reintroducing recreational and commercial fishing. While the shellfish aquaculture industry has raised concerns that eelgrass expansion may compete with shellfish for bottom areas, new research and inclusive land use planning approaches are ensuring both conservation and the clam industry can thrive.

Lesson

Developing carbon credits through an established marketplace can take years, underlining that they are a strong option to contribute to blended finance but are often not the driving force for a successful project. Ultimately, the project should provide benefits to communities, nature and businesses through means beyond carbon credits to foster durability in nature-based solution projects.

Photo credit: Nature Conservancy of Canada

Recognizing that farmers, foresters, and fisherpersons, cannot take on all the risk in investing in building natural capital, a growing movement has started to advance sustainable farming practices through supply-chain funding and incentives. Investments are coming from buyers including PepsiCo to input providers like fertilizer companies Nutrien and Yara through a variety of mechanisms including inset programs, payment for practices and green premiums, totaling more than $1.6 billion publicly committed by companies to-date.28

Raising the bar on sustainable supply chains

Green premiums—the higher prices paid for products that meet sustainability standards—and favorable market access conditions tied to sustainability criteria play a powerful role in encouraging sustainable practices. But a key question remains: Who will pay the premium? Often, it’s assumed it will be the end buyer, but in practice, end buyers need a market signal for paying the premium. As a result, premiums in the marketplace are sporadic. Most recently, farmers growing biofuel feedstocks like canola, soybeans and corn are seeing green premiums emerge in the marketplace to prove the sustainability of their production to access markets like the EU and U.S.

Green premiums are often underpinned by certifications that more broadly encourage responsible management of resources and community well-being and set standards for associated practices. Globally, these certifications are growing in market share with 19% of all wild marine catch engaged with Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) and roughly 200,000-million hectares of global forests certified under Forest Stewardship Council (FSC).29 30

While these certifications have been critiqued for their rigor, they are proving to advance and track practice implementation on-the-ground. For example, mammal monitoring in Gabon and the Republic of Congo shows there is greater diversity in species in FSC-certified forests compared to uncertified forests.31 Such certifications remain one of the few approaches available at scale that drive market standardization around sustainable use of natural assets and enable supply chain recognition and incentivization.

These industry-based certifications often operate outside of government, but governments are also stimulating markets for nature. In the U.K., under the Biodiversity Net Gain scheme, biodiversity credit payments totaled more than $360,000 in the first year of operation (2024 to 2025).32 A market-mechanism that creates value for those managing natural assets like farmers, outside of development zones, as well as incentivizing developers to integrate nature within their new builds. Wendling Beck, a collaboration led by four farmers in Norfolk County, U.K., is demonstrating how farmers can capitalize on revenue opportunities in environmental markets, while also producing food.

CASE STUDY

Where: Wendling Beck, Norfolk County, United Kingdom

Ambition to build 300,000 homes per year in the U.K. and a complementary biodiversity offset scheme presents a new way for farmers to generate income and build resilience on their land.

Driver:

Water stress in Norfolk County is mounting. By 2045, the county could run a deficit of 472-million liters of water per day.50 This is being driven by the county’s over-licensing and extraction of water from the region’s waterways, a growing population, and the effects of climate change, as well as water pollution. Water stress presents real challenges to economic growth from yield losses on farms to the availability of water required for built infrastructure, manufacturing, and human consumption.

Compounding the need to mitigate environmental stressors such as water availability, U.K. farmers increasingly are challenged by economic strain. The EU’s Common Agricultural Policy funding will be phased out in the U.K. by 2028, and onboarding of area-specific subsidies is underway. Furthermore, increasing volatility and frequency of disruptive events from droughts to tariffs can uproot farming businesses–driving demand for more diversified and durable revenue streams beyond agri-food commodity markets.

Mechanism for change

Farmers are known for helping their neighbours and community. But managing private land is often an individual endeavor.Four farmers from Wendling Beck are challenging this norm by working with conservation organizations and the local water utility company to lead landscape-scale adoption of nature-based solutions, delivering positive outcomes for water, biodiversity, climate and the farmers’ businesses.

Grants kickstarted the feasibility phase of the Wendling Beck farmers’ adoption of nature-based solutions. This helped mitigate the risks for the farmers if new practices such as rehabilitating marginal land did not net out positively. Now, the farmers’ efforts in rehabilitating landscapes and maintaining practices are enabled through private finance, ecotourism, and environmental marketplaces. Biodiversity net gain (BNG) units are a key source of revenue under the new scheme introduced in 2024, which requires developers to deliver at least a 10% net increase in biodiversity compared to pre-development conditions.

In the making

Over 2,000 acres are being rehabilitated with diverse activities on the land, including food production, wildlife habitat, flood management and water quality improvements. These activities are the result of farmers adopting nature-based solutions, including species-rich grassland restoration. Wendling Beck farmers continue to generate revenue through farming black currents and raising livestock on grasslands, stacked with revenue from environmental credits.

To ensure there is evidence backing the rigor of the credits sold by the farmers, counterfactual baseline measurements were set, and ongoing monitoring is conducted to ensure impacts are accounted. Species count, water quality and carbon sequestration are all being monitored through remote sensing, surveys, and eDNA barcoding.

Impact

Ultimately the Wendling Beck farmers have redesigned their business model, diversifying beyond revenue generation from food production to also profit from their contribution to building natural capital in the U.K. The project’s financial model conservatively uses CAD$47,000 per biodiversity unit, resulting in a financial projection of $131 million over 30+ years in revenue for the Wendling Beck farmers. They have nearly $10 million under contract already. These credits cover 1,500 acres of the habitat creation. The project is also reverting 400 acres of land back to its natural habitat for nutrient credits for housing developments under the Nutrient Neutrality scheme. The scheme requires housing developers to offset and mitigate the net impact of nutrient runoff from new housing developments in protected water habitats through the purchase of credits. The creation of nutrient neutrality credits by the Wendling Beck farmers enables the construction of roughly 2,000 homes in Norfolk.51

Lessons

Developing a vision map and fostering alignment among stakeholders has been essential to the project’s success as the number of stakeholders grows. Nature finance projects often involve stakeholders from different sectors with different objectives. Developing a shared vision can advance a common purpose, communicate how components of a project feed into the broader objectives, and foster continuity as new stakeholders come on-board at varying stages of the project. The Wendling Beck model is scalable and nature finance streams are stackable, but it requires bridging the gap between agricultural production and environmental conservation know-how to develop practical solutions for working farms. Farmers engaged in the Wendling Beck project are now enabling other regions to do the same through a farmer-led consulting firm.

Photos: The Wendling Beck Project
Photo credit: The Wendling Beck Project

Unlocking nature’s potential through business models

Triple-bottom lineA business framework that measures success across three dimensions: People (social), Planet (environmental), and Profit (economic).
 
Companies integrate social and environmental performance into their strategies alongside financial performance, often tracking metrics for each dimension.
Sustainable products and servicesBusiness models that design, produce, and deliver goods/services with minimal negative environmental and social impact, often with positive contributions.
 
Products/services are designed for reduced resource use, circularity, ethical sourcing, and/or social benefit, marketed as sustainable options.

Over the past year, nature has climbed the priority list for corporate ESG reporting. A Stanford University Business School survey of investors found that sustainability of supply chains and natural capital are 3rd and 4th on the priority list of environmental factors they consider when it comes to a company’ ESG reporting.33 Climate action remains the top consideration in environment and in the top three topics of investor ESG engagement across the three pillars of ESG. That’s an important consideration since nature and climate issues are interconnected, especially for nature-based sectors like forestry where investors’ key interests for ESG engagement with companies is risk mitigation.34

This growing focus on nature is a response from investor demand and recognition of the risks if natural capital is not managed responsibly by businesses. Over 27 pension funds at COP16 UN Biodiversity Summit in Colombia in 2024 called out government inaction, demanding greater regulations and standards to tackle the nature crisis. Black Rock publicly stated that sustaining nature–water, soil carbon, and biodiversity–is a foundational asset class. Goldman Sachs launched a Biodiversity Bond Fund with the goal of raising more than $700 million. Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global, which manages $2.1 trillion in assets, released an assessment of nature-related risks across approximately 90% of its portfolio.35

Community driven business models that work

A growing number of investors are on the hunt for companies that can demonstrate durability in their relationship with and use of natural assets. Companies that reduce their ecosystem impact intensity and land and carbon footprint also perform better. Annualized over 5-years, the S&P 500 Biodiversity Index slight outperforms the S&P 500 Index by 0.26%.b

Rethinking conventional business models for companies and industries reliant on natural assets is an opportunity to reposition nature’s strategic role in a growing economy. But buy-in and evidence at the ground-level is essential. A Canadian Prairies-based collective of farmers, conservation organizations, and corporates are working together to understand if water stewardship plans in the Lake Winnipeg Basin is good for business. Driven by curiosity, this group is creating a model for evaluating farmer returns on investments and profit margins with nature accounting integrated, which is replicable and scalable to any farming region.

CASE STUDY

Where: Southern Manitoba, Canada

Farmers are transforming their role in conservation through water stewardship action on their farms. Farmers in southern Manitoba are demonstrating how their practices produce positive environmental outcomes in their watershed and benefit their bottom line.

Driver:

Lake Winnipeg, the 10th largest freshwater lake in the world, has deteriorated over the past 50 years due to runoff of nutrients from agriculture, urban developments, and municipal and industrial waste. This has resulted in algae blooms, hinders industrial water use, and restricts recreational enjoyment of the lake.52 This is costly to the Canadian economy and businesses that rely on the stability in water quality and quantity, notably farmers in the Lake Winnipeg basin.

Mechanism for change

A collective of Prairie-based organizations, agri-businesses, and four farms covering more than 45,000 acres came together to design a project to demonstrate how water stewardship practices are good for business.53 An applied research project is helping this collective understand how water stewardship plans and implementation helps create value for farmers, empowering them to tell data-driven stories about their contribution to positive environmental outcomes.

While funding was not the reason farmers joined the collective–it was curiosity in what the impacts of water stewardship would have on their farms and communicating those impacts–companies in the collective are working with participating farmers to test incentive models, including a mix of carbon credits and practice incentive payments. Nutrien, a Canadian fertilizer company, is working with two of the participating farms through their Sustainable Nitrogen Outcomes program. The program generates an outcomes-based payment from GHG emission reductions produced through farmers’ improved management of nitrogen fertilizers.54

In the making

The farmers are implementing practices from their water stewardship plans and working with a research team to value the return on investment for profit, productivity and the environment. Water stewardship practices were categorized and assessed under two strategies. The first involves practices specifically deployed on croplands, which includes changes in tillage, adoption of precision agriculture technologies, and crop rotations. The second focuses on the enhancement of non-cultivated natural lands on the farm property, such as restoration of marginal farmland, or enhancements to wetlands, hedgerows, and green spaces. Assessed outcomes from practices adopted in 2023 and 2024 by the four farms, include improved air quality, better soil health, and enhanced biodiversity, which were organized based on public and private good.

Impact

Farmers generated, on average, $6,900 per acre of value for the public through ecosystem services such as pollination habitat, soil health, and water regulation. The value returned to farmers, based on carbon market values in the region, was $33 per acre.

There is also a social impact. Water stewardship awareness amongst the farming community has seen tremendous uptake and interest through knowledge sharing events and farm tours. This project is also inspiring similar landscape-based efforts, driven by water stewardship, in other regions. 

Lesson

Governments play a key role in a farmers’ ecosystem of support, providing funding, extension, and standardization. However, government timelines and priorities are not always aligned with those of farmers and companies. Nonetheless, not ensuring government was part of the collective in an active role became a barrier to scaling its impact. Their absence also resulted in missed opportunities in aligning farmers’ water stewardship plans with government programming. The collective is actively working to engage government and capitalize on opportunities from collaboration.

Photo credit: Mike Nemeth

In a triple bottom line business model, multiple revenue streams can help alleviate friction between environment, community resilience, and economic growth objectives. An enabling finance and policy environment helps, too. An ecosystem-based management plan that mapped the multiple environmental, community and economic objectives of forest management, positioned the Cheakamus Community Forest surrounding Whistler, B.C., to build a resilient business model that balances revenue from ecosystem services and logging.

CASE STUDY

Where: Whistler, British Columbia, Canada

From conflict to community driven economic development, B.C.’s Community Forest Agreements opened a pathway for community-led logging that is delivering on a triple bottom line business model that is generating profit from ecosystem services like carbon sequestration, tourism and logging.

Driver:

Conflict over forest management and ownership has been a longstanding issue in B.C. In response to greater calls for First Nations and local community control over forests, the province introduced area-based forest licenses called Community Forest Agreements (CFA) in 1998. This allowed for a new type of tenure in forestry management that aligns with local communities’ values and vision for development.

Mechanism for change

Community Forest Agreements take place on provincial Crown land in B.C., where Crown land covers roughly 94% of the land base. Licenses are issued by the province to communities that develop a management plan, including commitments to make a broader social, economic and resource use impact. These management plans are critical to the success of CFAs and empower communities to build a business model that generates social, economic, cultural, and environmental benefits, ensuring that local values and priorities shape how forests are stewarded. Community Forest Agreements are also long-term—25-to-99-year agreements—granting communities the exclusive right to harvest timber and manage botanical forest products within a fixed area. 

Today, there are 62 CFAs, covering about 5% of annual harvest volumes in B.C. on public lands.55 Roughly half of these CFAs are led by Indigenous Nations or Nations working in partnership with non-Indigenous communities to oversee activities under the CFA. One example, the Cheakamus Community Forest (CCF), is a three-way equal partnership including Lil’wat Nation, Squamish Nation and the Resort Municipality of Whistler. The Cheakamus Community Forest covers 81,589 acres and manages its tenure under an Ecosystem-based Management (EBM) Plan that focuses on delivering ecosystem function, cultural values, wildfire risk mitigation and recreation/tourism values, as it plans its harvesting operations.

In the making  

The Cheakamus Community Forest’s Ecosystem-based Management Plan led to developing a carbon offset program, as forest conservation and protection was a priority for the community under the plan. The Ecosystem-based Management Plan informed the community’s forestry management approach, which includes reduced harvest levels, extended rotation ages, expanded reserves, and enhanced old-growth and wildlife habitat protection compared to standard forestry practices. Because of these practices and the establishment of an atmospheric benefit sharing agreement, the Cheakamus Community Forest operates the only community forest carbon offset project in B.C., generating revenue to fund their stewardship and climate initiatives.

The Cheakamus Community Forest surrounds the Whistler resort, one of the top tourist destinations in the province, positioning the community to build tourism experiences throughout the managed forest. But it also adds a greater responsibility to undertake large-scale wildfire risk reduction to protect Whistler’s wildland–urban interface. Recently, the Cheakamus Community Forest completed a climate change risk assessment and identified areas subject to wildfire and drought risks, which they are using to inform strategic forestry operations plans to create a diverse, climate resilient forest.

Impact

The community forest tenure contributes $1-2 million annually through timber harvesting to the Sea-to-Sky economy, supports Indigenous employment and capacity-building, and ensures transparent, community-driven governance through significant community engagement and information sharing agreements.

Since its inception in 2009, the Cheakamus Community Forest has demonstrated its environmental impact through Improved Forest Management as defined by the B.C. Forest Carbon Offset Protocol, by avoiding an estimated 10,000–15,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions, annually, generating over 150,000 carbon credits to-date, which equates to about $100,000 per year from carbon sales to reinvest in forest stewardship.56

Lessons  

In a triple bottom line business model, frictions between environment, community resilience and economic growth can lead to the development of multiple revenue streams that contribute to building natural capital. The Ecosystem-based Management Plan was foundational in identifying how to create win-win opportunities for the community and set the stage for the carbon project. For others to do the same, enabling policy that positions other community forests to generate profit from their work in producing ecosystem services like GHG mitigation is required. This is an opportunity to explore under the B.C. Minister of Forests recent mandate to expand the community forest tenure system.

Photo credit: Heather Beresford

Nature accounting: Getting it on the books

Used properly, nature accounting can result in smarter projects, resilient supply chains, reduced disaster losses, and pipelines of investable natural assets–turning ecosystems into wealth drivers. But frameworks like the UN’s SEEA that already exist need more use cases to demonstrate its value informing investments.

In Canada, the Critical Minerals Strategy and major projects that fall within could be a litmus test for implementing SEEA in project assessments and plans to mobilize capital. However, inclusion of Indigenous lands, values, and knowledge in SEEA framework is critical in closing the gap between Free, Prior, and Informed Consent (FPIC) and nature accounting metrics. Indigenous rights and knowledge must be at the core of nature accounting—so economic growth builds natural capital wealth and respects those who steward it.

Embedding natural capital values in impact assessments and broader pro-growth agendas like the U.K.’s Plan for Change could ensure that new developments unlock investment for green infrastructure and proceed where water use demands can be met. Nature accounting in the Thames Valley, one of the U.K.’s most water-stressed regions, could transform how housing and infrastructure projects are assessed. Leveraging nature as an asset in development and land-use decision making can reframe local authorities and developers’ approach in weighing the economic costs and trade-offs of water management and broaden the suite of options, including grey, green and hybrid options. Finally, consider the Chesapeake Bay watershed, covering six states along eastern shores of the U.S., which faces some of the highest nutrient pollution in the country from industry, agriculture and urban runoff, causing degraded water quality, habitat loss, and economic impacts on fisheries and recreation.36 Integrating natural capital values into infrastructure and land-use planning would enable targeted investments in green infrastructure and ecosystem services. It also presents an opportunity for farmers in the region to replicate the approach taken by the farmers in the Lake Winnipeg Basin Project case study to drive investment in agricultural-based water stewardship.

Policy integration: Net-new is not necessary to move money and rules toward nature-positive growth

Integrating government funding with plans to build supply of carbon offset projects in compliance offset markets is one key area for policy integration to grow, while ensuring projects adhere to additionality principles. In Canada, offset protocols for forestry and agriculture are emerging on the Federal GHG Offset System, yet farmers, as demonstrated by the Prince Edward Island Federation of Agriculture’s case study, are generally ill-equipped to meet data quality and record keeping requirements of carbon offset projects. Leveraging existing funding programs, like the nearly $500 million Agricultural Clean Technology program is an opportunity to address this challenge. Supporting farmers in navigating how their investments in hardware and software can help them collect the necessary data to access carbon incentives could help build the supply of nature-based offset projects on the Federal GHG Offset System and improve funding program outcomes.

The explicit inclusion and prioritization of nature-based sectors and green infrastructure projects in government-led growth funds is another launch pad for integrating nature into pro-growth agendas. The forthcoming United States Sovereign Wealth Fund, the nearly-$50 billion National Wealth Fund in the U.K., and the $15-billion Canada Growth Fund are places to start in prioritizing investable nature-based and natural capital wealth projects.

Finally, improving the community resilience and potentially reduce costs in the housing development boom is an imminent policy integration opportunity. The U.K. is driving action through the biodiversity net gain scheme–an opportunity to crowd in greater private capital. In Canada, there is an opportunity to use the National Adaptation Strategy to mainstream nature-based projects in municipal housing programs tied to federal funds including, the Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund (CHIF). The CHIF has committed to investing CAD$6 billion over 10 years in housing development water and wastewater management.

Embracing disruptive technology: Enable AI to streamline nature governance and build natural capital

Nature accounting and governance is deeply complex. There are numerous protocols, frameworks and standards for measuring, monitoring, accounting, reporting, and verifying natural assets and their ecosystem services. Since this governance network of standards and framework is critical to ensure rigor in nature accounting, there is a need to simplify it to ease adoption. Learning from countries like Estonia, a leader in implementing AI to transform public administration, is an opportunity for the nature and conservation sector to advance the implementation of nature standards and frameworks like SEEA.

Nature-based projects that assess outcomes and monitor progress can also leverage AI to automatically process satellite imagery, remote sensing, sensors, and public datasets to monitor ecosystems in near real time, reducing manual data collection costs and improving accuracy. Of course, the cost of powering AI can’t be ignored. AI data centres are a growing competitor in the demand for land, water and energy. It is a strategic imperative, especially among countries with depleting natural resources like the U.K., to leverage natural capital in determining where it is possible to build a clean fleet of AI data centres. In addition to location, design features are critical in mitigate natural resource use, like rainwater harvesting or net-positive watering, which can return clean water back to neighbouring landscapes. To ease pressure on land, the use of heat offtake can also position AI data centres to have a dual purpose in, for example, greenhouse food production.


Pro-growth agendas need to do more than extract for wealth, they need to build natural assets that sustain wealth today and for the future. Nations that do so can shift control and value of natural wealth to those who steward it. Global finance is already moving, and investors are on the hunt for impactful natural capital projects that generate returns. Countries that account and build their natural capital wealth can be home to this investment. This opportunity requires a shift in government and business approaches, treating natural capital, not as a regulatory box to tick or a nice to have, but as foundational for growth – the wealth beneath wealth.

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Our project partner

Andrew Day, BC Parks Foundation

Audrey Popa, Coast Funds

Chance Cutrano, Resource Renewal Institute

Chuck Rumsey, Ecotrust Canada

Craig Harding, Nature Conservancy of Canada

Craig Losos, Nature Conservancy of Canada

Dave Secord, Salazar Center for North American Conservation

Deb Davidson, Center for Large Landscape Conservation

Donald Killorn  PEI Federation of Agriculture

Eddy Adra, Coast Funds

Glenn Anderson, Wendling Beck Environment Project

Heather Beresford, Cheakamus Community Forest

Holly Story, UK National Parks

Jane Church, Nature United

Jennifer Gunter, British Columbia Community Forests Association

Jill Bieri , The Nature Conservancy

Katie Davis, Wildlands Network

Leah Blechschmidt, Nature United

Leslie Harroun, Salazar Center for North American Conservation

Lisa Mclaughlin, Nature Conservancy of Canada

Maas, Tony, Nature United

María José González, MAR Fund

Matthew Mitchell, University of British Columbia

Maya Kocian, Earth Economics

Meg Lovett, Nature Conservancy of Canada

Mike Nemeth, Nutrien

Raine Playfair, Coast Funds

Risa Smith, IUCN/World Commission on Protected Areas

Ross Dixon, Coast Funds

Sara Aminzadeh, California Natural Resources Agency

Stephanie Walker, Revere

Stephenne Harding, Great Northern Strategies

Steven Nitah, Nature for Justice Canada

Susan Mulkey, British Columbia Community Forests Association

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  • Canada’s $30-billion supply management system has underpinned national food sovereignty and security for more than 50 years. Covering dairy, chicken, turkey and eggs, the system has ensured price and supply stability for food staples.

  • The system recognizes that producing food is costly. The arrangement fosters supply-chain stability, however, it could lead to higher consumer prices, especially amid rising input costs.

  • Supply management’s three foundational pillars are under attack—again. Production quotas, set pricing, and import quotas ensure the system’s integrity. But all three are facing calls for reform within Canada and from its biggest trading partners, including the United States (U.S.).

  • A new law limits Ottawa’s ability to open up the sector. The system’s advocates say Bill C-202 prioritizes national food security and restricts the Foreign Affairs Minister from making new concessions in any trade deal. Other experts say it could hurt Canada’s position in trade negotiations, including the impending Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) review next year.

  • Trade deals are chipping away at Canadian producers’ dominance. Yet, expanded global market access for Canadian supply managed farmers may run counter to the system’s design. A small production base tailored to domestic consumption makes them ill-equipped to compete as exporters in global markets, where high volume and competitive pricing are crucial.

  • Canada is not alone in facing tough policy choices on agriculture. New Zealand agriculture is grappling with its outsized greenhouse gas footprint, while the United Kingdom is finding its feet post-Brexit. Brazil, second only to the U.S. in total agri-food export value, is eyeing greater global market share. Canada could draw some lessons from these international shifts as it evolves its domestic food sector.

Canada’s supply management has caught the eye of the Trump administration, again, which has identified it as a major irritant as the two countries renegotiate their trade deal.

That has led to a new debate about Canada’s supply managed food industries, including dairy, chicken, turkey and eggs, that has been a staple of Canadian policy since the 1970s.

At its core, the system provides a stable price that fairly compensates farmers for producing high-quality food. The system’s advocates say it boosts food security, supports domestic producers, and ensures consistency of quality and supply for consumers, while critics say it stifles innovation, inflates prices and limits competition.

The system has come under scrutiny in nearly every trade negotiation and economic downturn, and will likely be a discussion item at the impending Canada-U.S.-Mexico-Agreement (CUSMA) review next year. It’s also being debated amid a domestic push to develop a unified market for goods and services. The conversations are evolving from polarizing calls between dismantling the system and business-as-usual, to a wider spectrum of ideas on reforming the system that’s been around for more than half a century.

Those looking to preserve the system are on the move. In June, Bill C-202 received Royal Assent with strong support from Canada’s supply-managed farmer associations. The Act instructs the foreign affairs minister to stop opening more dairy, poultry or egg quota to trading partners through international trade agreements. Still, the debate continues as stakeholders carve out specific areas for discussion, from the regional milk pooling systems to debating which part of the supply chain should get access to the foreign quota allotment.

The debate is not just bouncing off agriculture’s silo walls. It impacts many aspects of the Canadian economy, including food prices, choices, supply-chain jobs, and Canada’s trade diversification and growth prospects.

Supply management in numbers:

  • 1%. The managed sectors’ contribution to Canada’s GDP, amounting to more than $30-billion. The entire agriculture and agri-food sector accounts for more than 7% of Canada’s GDP.1 2

  • 339,000. The number of full-time jobs in supply managed industries, from farm to processor to distribution.3

  • 14,699. The number of supply managed farms in Canada, or 8% of nearly 190,000 farms across the country.4

  • 9,430. The number of dairy farms, primarily in Quebec and Ontario. Dairy farm numbers across Canada are down by more than 50% since the early 2000s, due to market consolidation.5

  • 7%. The growth in the number of poultry and egg farms over the past two decades. They are largely concentrated in Ontario, British Columbia, and Quebec, with Prairie provinces also seeing an uptick.6

The Canadian system is designed to uphold food sovereignty, stability and standards, which helps the industry prosper, but also presents challenges in a changing global food market.

Sovereignty

Supply management ensures stable prices and a robust domestic supply chain to meet demand. But as Canadian processors hold the majority of the tariff rate quota (TRQ), which is a set amount of low tariff imports, foreign importers have argued that they have limited access to Canada’s markets to fulfill their non-tariffed trade volumes negotiated in the agreement.

Supply management has emerged as a point of friction with Canada’s largest trading partners, especially the U.S., the European Union (E.U.), and, more recently, New Zealand. A key sticking point: Canada’s restrictions on import quotas.

The quotas are intended to limit imports within Canada’s supply management industries. In recent trade negotiations, however, Canada has made greater concessions, for example, in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) negotiations Canada agreed to provide participating countries, with an estimated 3.25% of Canada’s domestic dairy market.7 But as Canadian processors hold the majority of tariff import quotas, foreign importers have argued that they have limited access to Canada’s markets to fulfill their non-tariffed trade volumes negotiated in the agreement.

Trade deals are chipping away at domestic producers’ dominance: Trade concessions have resulted in Canada running a small trade deficit on all supply managed products, except chicken meat. For example, imports now represent roughly 4% of Canada’s dairy market.8 This has led to government payouts to dairy, poultry, and egg farmers and processors of $4.8 billion to compensate the industry’s forgone profits from foreign competition.9 Such payouts means Canadians are paying for their supply managed food at the cash register—and additionally through taxes.

Between 1995 and 2017 foreign access to Canada’s dairy TRQ was limited to commitments under the World Trade Organization (WTO). As CUSMA, the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) and CPTPP are phased in over the next ten years, Canadian foreign market access is expected to climb to roughly 10% of Canada’s dairy production.10 In return, Canada has expanded market access for dairy, poultry and eggs in these markets. Canada has a small production base with supply-chain logistics and relationships designed for domestic markets, which makes Canadian supply managed industries ill-equipped to be leaders in global markets where high volumes at competitive prices are critical for success.

Domestic supply chains are helping shield Canadians from trade wars: In times of global disruption, the domestic food supply chain has served Canadians well. Take the made-in-Canada movement that was kickstarted by U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war. It drove down sales of American brands, with Canadians swapping them with domestic products, wherever possible. For dairy, poultry, and eggs, Canadians can remain especially confident they have immediate access to Canada-based supply chains.

Eliminating loopholes

  • Processed products such as prepared meals can blur the lines of which food products are traded under which HS code, which categorize the trade of goods and services.

  • These blurred lines have allowed importers to move products into Canada tariff-free, taking advantage of loopholes that sidestep Canada’s TRQ system, which sets the volume allotted to importers under free trade agreements, including CUSMA, CETA and CPTPP.

  • Some of these loopholes have been closed, such as cheese being imported tariff-free when it was classified as part of a prepared meal like pizza-making kits for restaurants, which fell outside of TRQ allotments. Other loopholes have yet to be closed such as spent fowl (i.e., old laying hens) which can be used as a category to trade misrepresented broiler chicken raised for meat consumption, to avoid paying Canadian duties.

  • While importers have TRQ allotments for dairy, egg and poultry products, this low-tariff pathway to Canada is often underutilized as Canadian processors control the majority of TRQs as well as earmarked space in grocery store shelves.

  • This underutilization of TRQs has been a mounting irritant between Canada and its trading partners, most notably by the Americans who say Canada has not “respected the spirit” of CUSMA, and made it challenging for their producers to access Canada’s market.

Stability

Supply management is synonymous with stability. But, at what cost and for whom? With global market disruptions on the rise, it’s critical to determine a pathway that benefits both Canadian farmers and consumers.

Canada-based food supply chains have distinguished themselves during the pandemic and other crises, such as the recent avian influenza outbreak that’s ravaged the U.S. industry.

Indeed, egg prices in the U.S. have skyrocketed over the past year as the flu takes its toll on animal production, with 174 million confirmed poultry cases, and more than 1,074 dairy cow herds impacted in the U.S. by July 2025.11

The impact has been far less severe in Canada, with roughly 14 million birds infected and no reported cases among dairy herds.12 Canada’s poultry, egg and dairy farms have also been more resilient because of the industry’s standards in biosecurity and animal welfare. Smaller scale production that’s more dispersed compared to U.S. farms (aside from production-dense areas such as the Fraser Valley in British Columbia) has also helped. These on-farm factors have knock-on effects for stability in consumer pricing and product availability. On average, between 2017 and 2025, a dozen eggs sold in Canada was $1 more than in the U.S. However, that had flipped by February 2025 when a dozen eggs in the U.S. cost $3.52 dollars more than in Canada.13 14

Supply chain and market disruptions are anticipated to intensify from several issues, including a global movement away from rules-based trade and climate change triggering extreme weather events and spreading disease and pest outbreaks. It’s an important consideration for policymakers as frequent volatility impacts commodity market prices.

Producing food is a costly affair. Fixed quota and price in supply managed sectors generate certainty for farmers, which fosters stability in the supply chain. However, this stability comes with its own cost as it inherently leads to more expensive products as the cost of inputs rise in Canada. Worsening affordability disproportionally impacts food insecurity in low-income families; however significant price volatility is disruptive to average household spending, too.15 16

In contrast, non-supply managed farmers growing wheat and raising beef cattle, for example, are exposed to commodity markets, resulting in farmers’ profit margins and consumer prices fluctuating as markets shift. Non-supply managed farmers are often price receivers and cannot pass rising costs onto consumers.

Canada’s support for farms is contentious—but comparable to the U.S. When comparing total direct producer supports, U.S. contributions are 6.5 times larger than Canada’s. Yet, the countries are roughly at par when estimating direct producer supports as a portion of value produced at the farmgate–around 7%.17 However, this support is not evenly distributed across all commodities. Specific to supply managed products, producer supports are clearly aligned with the respective countries’ approach. Canada’s contribution has been consistent with the price producers receive based on supply management, while U.S. farmer supports fluctuate in line with market volatility.

Supply managed farms contribute to Canada’s rural economy prosperity. Stability also plays a broader role in Canada’s rural economy. The most recent agriculture census data, shows the number of Canadian dairy farms fell 11% while herd size rose 13% over a five-year period (2016–2021).18 In the U.S., the number of dairy farms decreased by 34% and herd size increased by 48% over the same period.19 Consolidation enables larger dairy farms in the U.S. to achieve economies of scale. Yet, this recent rapid trend of fewer, bigger farms in the U.S. reduces the diversity of farm sizes, concentrates herd locations, making them more susceptible to disease and pest outbreaks, and can hollow out demand for supporting businesses and rural communities.

Standards

Canada’s supply management allows for a system that adheres to high standards, leading to greater efficiency and sustainability outcomes. However, the system is not designed to maximize production.

Canadian farmers are increasingly ramping up their capabilities to measure, report and verify their progress in adopting best management practices, especially those related to environmental sustainability and animal welfare. The strong governance and market control of supply management allows for widespread and consistent adoption of practices and standards at the farm and along the supply chain. To participate in the regulated market, supply managed farms adhere to an industry code of practice and regulated standards, which has raised Canada’s standards for animal welfare and health and food quality. Non-supply managed production systems in Canada such as beef also have quality assurance programs that ensure high standards on farms such as the Ontario Corn Fed Beef Quality Assurance Program. Yet, the governance system of supply management enables widespread and consistent adoption of practices—an ambition that’s challenging to achieve when there is less regulation and market control.

More stringent standards than the U.S. Nonetheless, on both sides of the border, milk is safe and produced to a high standard. ProAction is the Dairy Farmers of Canada’s framework for best management practices and standards across six themes: milk quality, food safety, traceability, biosecurity, animal care and the environment—with 99.7% of Canadian dairy farmers registered.20 Similarly, the U.S. has the National Dairy Farmers Assuring Responsible Management (FARM), which covers 99% of the U.S. milk supply.21 However, standards within these two programs and the complementary regulations differ, which can impact animal health and milk quality. The U.S. also allows for a higher Somatic Cell Count (SCC), which counts white blood cells in cows. Similar to humans, high white blood cells mean the body is fighting an illness or inflammation, which could negatively impact milk quality. Somatic Cell Count in the U.S. is 750,000 individual cells (IC) per millilitre (mL), while in Canada stands at 400,000 IC per mL.22 23

Industry is focused on efficiency and sustainability. The governance frameworks of supply management also provide a platform to scale farmer engagement in industry-wide initiatives on issues such as efficiency, innovation and sustainability. For example, egg farmers across Canada are measuring and reporting their progress on sustainability through the National Environmental Sustainability and Technology Tool (NESTT) platform. This unified approach sidesteps the increasingly fragmented landscape of sustainability and regenerative agriculture projects that many farmers are navigating for market access or to develop new revenue streams through mechanisms such as carbon credits and green premiums.

Food security and sovereignty are featuring high on government agendas globally as extreme weather interrupts food production and trade barriers disrupt trade flows.

Dairy, a nutrient and culturally significant staple in many diets around the world—from French cheese to lassi in India—, has high demand but also high volatility in international markets, resulting in the industry attracting elevated attention in policy, trade, and farmer support.

Here’s how other countries are managing their dairy sector during times of transition and disruption.

New Zealand: An international leader with a rising GHG footprint

New Zealand removed its production quota in the 1980s due to a budget crisis, transforming the country into the world’s largest dairy exporter. In 2001, the government launched Fonterra, a farmers’ co-op, which sets prices and is now the largest purchaser of domestic milk. Its price calculation is based on revenue from milk sales minus operating and overhead costs and capital recovery. New Zealand has more than doubled its national herd since the early 1980s, and individual herd sizes increased three-fold. Consolidation meant the number of herds fell from 15,753 in 1985 to 10,485 in 2024.24 Market liberalization has transformed the New Zealand dairy supply chain, especially powder milk production, which has grown 237% in volume since 2000, driven by free trade agreements with large importers such as China and targeted foreign and domestic investment in building capacity and automating manufacturing processes.25

The dairy sector has become highly efficient and competitive, as demonstrated by its herd consolidation, but the growth in the number of cows has raised the sector’s environmental impacts, such as greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). Led by dairy, agriculture now accounts for over 50% of New Zealand’s GHG emissions.26 Recent national GHG targets have created uncertainty in the sector, resulting in a review of national targets and agriculture’s role in meeting them. AgriZero, a public-private partnership, is focused on matching funds and accelerating climate action in agriculture. It’s seen as a unique model to stack funds at a time when attention on climate mitigation has slowed down.

Lesson for Canada: A first of its kind, AgriZero serves as an example for Canada to explore as pools of climate funds shrink and the need for coordinated, scaled action in agriculture grows.

United Kingdom: Transitioning away from the EU model

The U.K. is transitioning its policy approach to area-based subsides under the Environmental Land Management Schemes (ELMS) post-Brexit that’s underpinned by sustainable agriculture such as marginal land rehabilitation. Dairy producers in the U.K. received direct payments under the EU’s Common Agriculture Policy (CAP), but these types of payments are being phased out until 2028, as part of the U.K. departure from the economic bloc. This transition in farmer support imposes both financial and administrative burdens on the sector as farmers navigate change, amid rising costs of domestic production and competition from importers.

To enable greater agri-food trade among E.U. countries and the U.K., the two have agreed to move forward with establishing a common Sanitary and Phytosanitary area (i.e., shared standards on food safety and quality) that aims to ease the movement of agriculture and food products across the U.K. and EU. However, some say that the move could impact the U.K.’s ability to form trade agreements with countries outside of the E.U. and maintains the U.K.’s ties to the economic region.

Lesson for Canada: As Canada embarks on a mission to strengthen and diverse its international trade, it might avoid going from an over-reliance on the U.S. to over-indexing to another region or country via overly restrictive standard alignment of agri-food products for trade.

Brazil: The struggle to break into the global market despite high ambition

Brazil has transformed its agriculture sector and is now a leader in global agri-food exports—the second largest in the world, after the U.S. Yet, less than 1% of Brazil’s dairy production is exported.27 Domestic demand, market infrastructure that’s not export-oriented, and a highly competitive international market has impeded Brazil’s global push.

The country’s dairy production and processing infrastructure greatly varies from smallholder, subsistence farms to modern, large-scale farm businesses. The former is supported through subsidies for asset investments such as cooling tanks, pasture, and milking infrastructure. Farmer prices are mostly market-driven, but the government may intervene via CONAB (National Supply Company) to buy excess milk or offer storage subsidies.

With ambitions to break into the global market in a big way, Brazil is up against tough competition, notably from New Zealand, as it eyes the Middle East, Latin American and Asian markets. To grow globally, Brazil must also address its weaker standard and regulatory approach to land use, GHG emissions, traceability and cold-chain logistics.

Lesson for Canada: While Brazil and Canada have had different agri-food development trajectories to date, they are increasingly competing for the same piece of the global agri-food export pie. Brazil’s approach to enabling diverse scales of production, targeted at both domestic and export growth, should prompt Canada to investigate its own production, which continues to consolidate and faces rising foreign competition.

Market Outlook

Canada’s supply management systems is designed to protect the country from changes in international markets. Yet, policymakers still need to be alert to structural shifts and macro trends in the global industry.

Dairy

  • Real global dairy prices for farmers are projected to trend downward within this decade. But, relative to input costs, prices are expected to rise, especially as milk produced per animal grows.28 U.S. farmers could see an average annual drop of 8% year-over-year in real price, signalling lower returns for dairy farms in commodity markets that do not innovate and grow.29

  • Global dairy consumption is expected to modestly increase 1% per year, while production is projected to grow at 1.6% per year to 1,085 million tonnes, driven by production in India, Pakistan and Sub-Saharan Africa, primarily for their domestic consumption.30

  • Fresh dairy consumption in North America and Europe are stable or declining as consumers move away from full-fat milk and cream, and plant-based alternatives such as oat milk mature as an established replacement. Processed dairy consumption, including butter and powder milks are on the rise driven by their use in food manufacturing, including infant formula and baked goods. Finally, cheese consumption, which is closely connected to household income has been on the rise in growing international markets such as Mexico, the U.S., Brazil and Saudia Arabia.31

  • Only 7% of global milk production is traded internationally due to its perishability and as market infrastructure in many countries is primarily designed for domestic or regional distribution with few exceptions, such as New Zealand and Ireland. However, over 50% of milk powder, including whole and skim products, are traded.32

  • World dairy trade is expected to grow by more than 12% over the next eight years. Skim milk powder from the U.S. and cheese from the E.U., two of the largest dairy export segments, are poised for the highest growth.33

Poultry and eggs

  • Global prices for poultry and eggs are projected to decline as inflation and input costs fall. For example, U.S. farm prices per dozen of eggs are projected to decline by US$0.90 over the next decade, with an average year-over-year decline of 4%.34 However, U.S. production is expected to rise 12% by 2033, from a 2022 baseline.

  • Poultry production is expected to increase with growing demand, and account for nearly half of all meat produced. Global poultry consumption is expected to grow 16% over the next decade—the most among animal proteins. Poultry is projected to account for 43% of animal protein consumed by 2034, with notable growth in Brazil, Europe, and the U.S.35

  • China’s self-sustaining food policy and recent rebound from African swine fever and avian influenza outbreaks has resulted in a decline in global meat trade from its height in 2021, when China accounted for roughly a quarter of global meat imports.

  • Population and GDP growth in Africa and Asia are expected to rebound meat exports within the next decade, driven by poultry which is expected to account for over 40% of total meat imports.36

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