➔ Breaking the silos in the Maritimes

➔ Canada steps up nature protection efforts amid climate onslaught

➔ Is energy transition an illusion? An IMF working paper explores

Signals

• The Maritimes are breaking down provincial grid silos. Premiers of New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island signed an MoU in July to develop a more integrated electricity system. Aligning regulations, investments and utilities of three of the smaller regions in Canada by spring of 2027 would be a test case closely watched by larger provinces that are also eyeing interties to share power generation and capacity. Meanwhile, Newfoundland and Labrador and Quebec signed a $70-billion clean power deal—said to be North America’s largest clean energy investment, if completed. The pact would double Newfoundland’s total power capacity, and potentially boosts Quebec’s electricity exports. Quebec will pay 6.2 cents per kilowatt-hour in the new pact, a significant jump over the decades-old deal of 0.2 cents, that had triggered a long-running dispute between the two provinces.

• Indigenous equity in Canadian projects grew 290% in eight years. Between 2017 and 2025, the number of Indigenous-owned projects starting operations grew from 10 to 39, while at least 47 Indigenous-owned projects will come online across Canada this year, according to the Indigenous Equity Monitor. Nearly 87% of the 546 Indigenous-owned projects are power and utilities and carbon capture, highlighting First Nations’ role in clean energy. The experience in project development arms communities with experience, funding and skills to participate in several energy developments on the horizon.

• Canadian Crawford Nickel mine just got the greenlight from the Major Projects Office. The Timmins mine (featured in the 2025 Climate Action Report) is expected to be the biggest mine in the world when completed in 2029. It’s a flagship development in a Western nation for a material critical for EV batteries. Nickel production is currently dominated by Indonesia, which carefully regulates quota and exports, and Chinese processing companies. Demand for nickel is set to grow 65% this decade alone.

When AI comes to town

Nimbyism is coming for AI data centres.Oakville, Mississauga, and New York state are among North American jurisdictions looking to protect their power infrastructure from AI.

The transformative (and disruptive) technology is an energy—and capital—sponge. The communities are also seeking greater transparency on water, heat and air pollution associated with data centres, in addition to how these power-hungry projects impact Canadians provinces’ efforts to decarbonize their grids.

Here’s the scale of capital and energy AI needs:

US$715 billion: Capital expenditure of hyperscalers in 2026 globally—that’s more than the US$600-billion invested in the entire U.S. energy sector in 2024, according to the International Energy Agency.

US$200 billion: The amount AI companies tapped in debt markets to fund expansion. They are set to become the largest issuers of corporate debt going forward.

Five to 10 years. Wait times for grid connection in many jurisdictions globally. In Canada it averages six years.

10% of total electricity demand growth globally: AI power consumption will more than double to 950 TWh by 2030 from current levels. In the U.S, data centre electricity consumption would account for 45% of all growth.

Data centres will likely lean more on fossil fuels by 2030. Around 252 TWh will be powered by low-carbon energy sources, including nuclear. However, that will be eclipsed by fossil-fuel powerhouses coal and natural gas, accounting for around 270 TWh by 2030, with implications for emissions, the IEA forecasts.

Agentic AI is a power sponge. A single, context-rich query eats up 50 watt-hours (similar to charging a smartphone 2-3 times),compared to 0.05Wh for a text query (medium language model).

The AI frenzy could raise emissions. AI models raised net annual CO₂ emissions by 0.47–1.8 gigatonnes (1.2–4.8% of 2024 global energy-related CO₂ emissions), according to a study in Nature. Renewable gains must exceed fossil gains by 4–5X for net emissions to reach breakeven levels.

Big Tech has gone dark on its emissions footprint. Multi-billion-dollar AI start-ups have no obligation to report their carbon footprint, while several listed Big Tech firms and investors have also cooled on their environmental disclosures as they power through the AI frenzy.

Clash between sovereignty and power. The Ontario province unveiled a playbook last week that aims to maintain Canadian data sovereignty but also ensure that deep-pocketed hyperscalers are paying higher prices and get no financial support.

The (task)force of nature

Ottawa’s new Expert Taskforce on Natural Capital Accounting and Nature Financing is among the first critical steps to attract more investment in protecting nature amid an onslaught from extreme weather. It follows the launch of a federal strategy to protect nature in the spring, aimed at increasing conservation areas, aligning economic growth with nature stewardship, and mobilizing private capital.

These efforts come after Canada missed, by a long shot, its 2025 target to protect and conserve 25% of terrestrial land and inland water and leaves a very narrow path for its 30% of land conservation by 2030 goal.  The failure was highlighted in the 2025 Report of the Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development on behalf of the Auditor General of Canada.

There are more reasons to be optimistic about the approach to 30×30 than previous conservation efforts, says Wilson Fink, Director of Agriculture.

• Pillar 1-protecting nature. Acknowledging the need for an all-of-Canada approach. Protecting 30% of land is difficult when only 6% of Canada’s land is federally owned¹. The rest is controlled by provinces, Indigenous governments, and private landowners. Collaboration would be key.

• Pillar 2—building Canada well. The commitment to be data driven and “enable integrated conservation, carbon accounting, and project planning,” to facilitate funding for nature.

• Pillar 3—mobilizing capital. It’s the least developed of the three, but perhaps the most consequential. There is global momentum to build nature frameworks that can accommodate more substantial investments, but they need harmonization and less risk to scale successfully. This is where the taskforce will spend most of its time.

Conversations

• “We want to see carbon markets take their rightful place in the climate finance architecture,” said Mura Kurum, Turkey’s environment minister and president of COP31, hosted by his country in November.

• Climate wonks are abuzz with a new International Monetary Fund working paper by Jean-Baptiste Fressoz, et al, on how new energy sources are additive not substituting old energy sources, effectively calling energy transition an illusion. Some say that’s not entirely true, pointing to the demise of whale oil.

• Canadair’s water bombers “are the backbone of most European firefighting operations,” according to Neil Sweeney, De Havilland Canada’s vice-president of operations. As wildfires across North America and Europe destroy picture-perfect forests and foliage, the once-dormant Canadair line is being revived.

• “Ottawa’s update on its National Adaptation Strategy documents a good deal of activity—but little sign that any of it is actually reducing the escalating climate and extreme weather risks that Canadians face,” said Ryan Ness, Director of Adaptation at the Canadian Climate Institute, in response to Canada’s 2026 National Adaptation Strategy Progress Report.

➔ How the proposed West Coast pipeline and Pathways project impact emissions

➔ Six energy transition trends triggered by conflicts

➔ Tired energy batteries get a new lease on life

Signals

Canada’s zero plastic waste agenda is a U.S. target. Lost in the flurry of blocked bridges and wider CUSMA uncertainty, zero plastic is another of Washington’s trade grievances against Canada. Will Ottawa be forced to backtrack on the program? It’s making a dent: Since the ban began in 2018, the Canadian shoreline cleanups have reported declines in targeted items (60% reduction in straws, 25% fewer bags), while microplastics in Great Lakes water have plummeted since the microbead ban, experts told a Senate Committee recently.

Global sustainable debt issuance hit a five-year high. Issuance reached nearly US$1 trillion in the first five months of 2026. Still, at US$216 billion issued in May, it only accounted for 4.6% of total global debt offerings in the month. Green and sustainability bonds and securitized social debt accounted for over three quarters of the issuance, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Canada issued only 0.7% the global market from its 2022 highs when it captured 3.1% of issuance.

Retired electric vehicle batteries are getting a second life. Vancouver-based Moment Energy started what it describes as the world’s largest battery repurposing facility, converting retired EV batteries into stationary energy storage systems, with a target of one gigawatt-hour of production by 2030. Backed by Canadian and U.S. governments, the Amazon Climate Pledge Fund, and others, Moment aims to utilize the first generation of EV batteries that are set retire. While they may not have the juice to meet exacting automotive performance standards, they can be repurposed for grid storage.

The new Calgary Stampede for Canadian energy

A federal and Alberta-backed West Coast pipeline, an Alberta-Ontario Northern Shield corridor, Ottawa’s support for B.C. LNG—it seems to be a stampede for energy in recent days.

Then came Canada’s big action on climate change: five major oilsands firms agreed with the Alberta province and federal government to build the long-planned Pathways carbon capture and storage (CCS) project.

The developments could set the pace on emissions in the country, and be a leading indicator for how the slew of other major projects would require Canadian policymakers to balance economic development with their stated climate ambitions.

Energy Policy Lead Shaz Merwat examines the Pathways memorandum between the companies, Alberta and the federal government:

It was a one-two punch. Days before the Pathways announcement was the Alberta-to-B.C. West Coast Oil Pipeline (WCOP), to move up to a million barrels a day to the Pacific coast. But the same policy package that fast-tracked the pipeline is built upon the withdrawal of marquee federal tools that had been setting the timeline on oilsands emissions, most notably the proposed oil and gas emissions cap. What Ottawa kept was the funding: the 50% federal carbon capture, storage and utilization (CCUS) investment tax credit, stacked with Alberta’s incremental support. The “stick” was withdrawn, but the “carrot” stayed.

There appears to be an emissions file reset. The market-oriented federal government has stopped using regulatory timelines to force the pace and left the pace to the market—and to Alberta. Prime Minister Mark Carney has been unusually direct about the near-term costs: the changes, he said, will mean emissions would be “higher in the next few years than they were projected to be under the previous government’s plan,” calling the plan he inherited “too expensive” and “too divisive.” In effect, Carney rebooted the emissions file.

Pathways is the first project proposed under the rebooted climate regime. Five oilsands majors—operating as the Oil Sands Alliance—agreed to advance a scaled-back version of the Pathways carbon-capture project, with binding terms still to come. The commitments have been resized from what the alliance originally promised in 2021 (see table).

Oilsands Alliance’s Emissions Reduction Commitments

Source: Oilsands Alliance, RBC Capital Markets, RBC Climate Action Institute

The alliance’s total reduction commitment is now 16 metric tonnes (Mt) annually by 2045, against an original plan of roughly 68 Mt—and the original figure was always the narrow one, covering operational (Scope 1 and 2) emissions only, not the far larger volume released when the barrel is burned (Scope 3). Set against oilsands emissions of roughly 90 Mt per year, a 16 Mt commitment leaves most of the sector’s footprint outside any quantified plan.

Climate is a square peg for a round hole. The November Canada–Alberta MOU named its own objective as achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 while unlocking the growth of Alberta’s oil and gas—including the pipeline. So, the deal simultaneously declares a 2050 destination, enables higher near-term production and emissions, and resizes the sector’s flagship abatement project down by more than three-quarters—without publicly reconciling the three.

Canada’s 2050 net-zero goal remains intact. Net-zero-by-2050 remains legislated federally. Alberta still holds a 2050 goal, now worded as a carbon-neutral economy. The MoU keeps the ambition, even though it remains unclear at the company level.

So, is this bad for the climate? It depends on what you count as progress. The pipeline adds an estimated 15.5–18.2 Mt a year upstream through 2030 if it drives new output; offsets from rail-to-pipeline switching and displacing higher-emissions Asian crude bring the net closer to 10–12 Mt. The alliance’s 16 Mt nominally covers that—but nominally is working hard: the pipeline emissions are nearer-term (still likely 6-7 years away). The 16 Mt is an almost 20-year target in 2045 with no accompanying published bridge to net-zero by 2050. Under the old regime, progress meant distance to a target on a regulatory clock. Under the new one, the target stays on the books, but the clock belongs to the market, and the flagship project is sized to what’s deliverable now, not what 2050 requires. Whether that’s a slower road to the same place or a quiet exit remains unanswered. That ambiguity, more than any other number, is what’s new.

How the Ukraine war accelerated EU’s energy transition

Global emissions from the energy sector rose 1.1% in 2025, with the U.S. accounting for more than a third of the rise, according to the Energy Institute’s Statistical Review of World Energy, now in its 75^th edition. Once published by BP Plc, it’s now published by the non-profit Energy Institute in partnership with consultants Ember, Kearney and KPMG.

The big takeaway: there is fragmentation of climate policies around the world, but renewable energy deployment is also accelerating at a scale that is reshaping entire energy systems.

Some key highlights from the report that speak to wider trends:

• The sun is shining. Globally, solar energy achieved 30% growth in 2025, and its share of total power generation reached 8.7%–eclipsing wind (8.4%) for the first time and almost equalling nuclear’s share of 8.8%.

• The U.S. is an emissions laggard: In absolute terms, the increase in U.S. emissions was four times greater than that of China. North America was also the only region to increase its carbon intensity of energy in 2025.

• Ukraine war has already altered behaviour. The European Union saved €72 billion from avoided fossil fuel imports in the past four years, by deploying wind and solar in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

• Battery capacity is expanding rapidly: Global battery capacity expanded by 66% to 302GW in 2025, as countries looked to cut reliance on fossil fuels. The accelerated deployment of wind and solar, plus supportive policy environments such as REPowerEU, meant that by 2025 the two sources generated 852TWh, more power than coal, gas and oil combined (760TWh).

• China is insulating itself from periodic fossil-fuel disruptions. China’s road fuel demand is already plateauing and remains six times lower than the U.S. on a per capita basis, as the Asian country adopts electric vehicles.

• Fossil fuel growth is decoupling from economic growth. In Europe, fossil fuel consumption has fallen by 15% over the past decade. In North America it has grown by 1%, but it masks a switching from coal to gas over the same period. It has fallen 4% in South and Central America, helped by renewables in major markets like Brazil.

Conversations

• Investors are adjusting to the federal and provincial governments—and First Nations—playing more active roles in the energy business, noted John Stackhouse at the Calgary Stampede. This represents a new Canadian reality and signals the rise of state capital globally. The Calgary event, once a celebration of frontier-spirited free enterprise, is now more comfortable being a meeting ground for government and business.

• Canada has entered a new smoke era, where elevated wildfire smoke exposure is becoming the new baseline, writes Dave Sawyer, principal economist at the Canadian Climate Institute, in a new briefing. His key finding: wildfires’ health costs are large, about $19 billion annually, driven primarily by accelerated mortality.

• Can AI help decarbonize construction? That was Housing Policy Lead Stephanie Shewchuk’s key takeaway from a George Brown Polytechnic event. One approach: optimizing material use. Read Stephanie’s key insights here.

➔ The big fight over methane

➔ Canada is going global with its nuclear ambitions

➔ Why a Canadian municipality paused a data centre project

Signals

Corporates are returning to the fore: Corporate sustainability appears to be turning a corner, with companies demonstrating renewed commitment propelled by the tailwinds described above, says Brian Hong, RBC Director, Environmental Markets Solutions Group, who attended London Climate Week. The breadth of representation across the events—spanning large corporates, financial institutions, investors, government representatives, and NGOs—was another positive indicator. Read his full impressions of #LCAW2026 here.

Canada is an Energy Transition Index laggard. The country, ranked 32nd, dropped one spot in the World Economic Forum’s 120-country index and trails most of its advanced peers (the U.S. is ranked 19^th and Australia 26^th).Canada’s step down was part of a more sweeping decline in advanced economies on rising energy prices and weaker climate policies.

El Niño is fuelling a cooling crisis. Space cooling is already the fastest-growing energy demand in buildings globally (4% annually), straining power grids. As temperatures remain oppressive, expect AC adoption—and demand for power—to ramp up: only 52% of Canadian renters have AC access, while only 15% of the 3.5 billion people in hot climates worldwide own air conditioners.

Transmission in transition

By Vivan Sorab, Clean Tech Lead

Canada’s electricity strategy is at a critical juncture with policymakers and industry grappling with the push and pull of managing growth and keeping it—mostly—clean.

At the electricity strategy summit in Ottawa, hosted by Natural Resources Canada and Smart Grid Innovation Network, I came away with the following insights:

The action is at the distribution end: New housing is driving a wave of transformer and metering demand, while rooftop solar, EVs, and other inverter-based resources are climbing sharply. Data centres, squeezed by caps such as Alberta’s 1.2-gigawatt limit and global chip shortages, are increasingly seeking to connect at the distribution level.

Affordability is a binding constraint: A hyper-focus on lowest cost is choking the investment the electricity system needs to grow. Yet affordability is also the single greatest threat to political continuity, and with it the durability of any national strategy.

Planning needs to extend beyond the kilowatt-hour. Integrated resource planning optimizes for capacity and energy, but distributed energy resources and demand-side management deliver more than power, boosting local economic development, customer comfort, and household savings. Today, those benefits are not priced properly, some say, and so the distributed solutions that could ease the system are systematically undervalued.

Workforce and supply chains limit what can be deployed and how fast. Deployment forecasts, such as for heat pumps, assume trajectories that available labour and supply chains cannot deliver. The achievable pace will be more modest than headline targets imply. The skills gap compounds this: every retirement removes 30–40 years of expertise, with no systematic upskilling regime to replace it.

Interties and an East-West grid are back on the table. Shifting geopolitics has revived interest in regional integration, but Canada’s grid remains dominantly north-south. Cross-time-zone interties could materially raise the value of renewables by offsetting peaks across the country, though deeper modelling and feasibility work are necessary.

The biggest export opportunity may not be physical. The export conversation fixates on hardware such as small modular reactors and large nuclear components. But Canada has an underused advantage in electrification expertise and grid software.

Methane wars

By Shaz Merwat, Energy Policy Lead

The U.S. and Qatar are at odds with the EU over methane import rules. Brussels is holding the line—while quietly suspending enforcement. The framing is now familiar: energy security versus climate ambition.

That could prove to be an advantage for Canada, given its high methane compliance standards. Most major global sources of gas supply anxiety right now have a Canadian answer, says Shaz Merwat, our energy policy lead.

Years of work on methane are yielding results. The Montney is among the lowest methane-intensity gas plays in the world. Enhanced federal regulations finalized in December target 72% below 2012 levels by 2030. The compliance burden the U.S. and Qatar are lobbying against is already baked into Canadian operations.

Chokepoints? Kitimat ships west. No concerns around the current conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, blocked traffic in the Suez Canal, the Panama Canal is running dry, or the future of the Taiwan Strait.

For Canadian operators, methane performance is turning out to be a quieter, cheaper way, with a growing list of buyers who are starting to make it a condition rather than a preference.

A new nuclear ambition

By Vivan Sorab, Clean Tech Lead

Canada’s new Nuclear Energy Strategy leverages its civil nuclear energy legacy for energy security, industrial policy, and exports.

Here are six insights into the scope and depth of Canada’s new nuclear ambitions:

• New reactors: The strategy targets up to 10 new large reactors (two under construction by 2035, five more planned by 2040), at least one deployment outside Ontario (Canada’s current nuclear stronghold), by 2035, a modernized CANDU design by 2030, and a doubling of the nuclear workforce.

• A fleet approach: The strategy concentrates regulatory, supply-chain, and construction effort behind specific reactor designs for every use case, helping to standardize deployments, drive down costs, and build a construction track record.

• It’s about Team Canada: The strategy emphasizes nuclear exports and envisions a unified “Team Canada” export posture with several goals: securing CANDU in at least four new markets by 2040, engaging six to 10 new-entrant countries, and capturing supply-chain share in at least five non-CANDU projects globally. A dedicated Export Financing and Commercial Framework is meant to let Canada compete on sovereign financing, a key driver of nuclear technology exports.

• Leveraging uranium: Canada is the world’s second-largest uranium producer, and CANDU reactors run on natural uranium, insulating it from the enrichment supply chains that are dominated by Russia. The strategy aims to double uranium exports by 2035. While Canada’s current reactors do not require enriched uranium to operate, Canada’s SMR fleet will require enriched fuel, which the strategy says remains under consideration but will be secured for reactors that require it.

• Leading with innovation: Nuclear fusion, a defence-led advanced microreactor, and a medical isotope push are also key components of the strategy.

• The next steps: Execution hinges on financing, supply chain, and jurisdiction. Federal financing policy that defines terms isn’t due until April 2027, and the plan aims to attract private and pension capital that has been hard to mobilize for Western nuclear projects. On the supply-chain side, heavy-water production capacity closed in the 1990s and would have to be rebuilt, alongside heavy forgings and nuclear-grade materials. And provinces, not Ottawa, choose the technology and manage downstream effects, with the federal role being one of signalling and supporting de-risking.

Conversations

➔ Can Canada build more homes and build more defence infrastructure in a climate-smart way? RBC’s John Stackhouse offers some thoughts on the triple play that’s about to be tested as Canada embarks on a new housing expansion.

➔ When municipalities fight back.In a sign of municipal backlash against data centres, Hamilton, Ont., councillors unanimously paused a data centre project on the grounds that it could impact the environment, water use, and affordability. Councillor Nrindr Nann, who led the initiative, said 21 other municipal councils have requested her motion letter.

➔ It’s 25% by 2035. That’s the new proposed climate target for energy consumption intensity in the building sector under the COP31 Presidency of Türkiye. It could strike a chord—and build momentum as rising power bills has emerged as a critical challenge for businesses and consumers.

➔ The beautiful game’s rising carbon footprint

➔ How to acknowledge, encourage and scale conservation

➔ Notes from the U.S.-Canada Summit: Canada must play its critical minerals, and nuclear cards strategically

Signals

• The Canadian Deep Geothermal Coalition will develop the country’s first national geothermal energy roadmap. Ottawa tasked the group— comprising industry and Indigenous leaders, researchers, policymakers—to tap a nascent clean industry that has caught the eye of 50 jurisdictions globally.

• Quebec rolled back its target of 100% zero-emissions sales by 2035. It’s now 80%, a “balanced approach,” the government said, that accounts for supply chain challenges facing the global auto industry. In March, Ontario Premier Doug Ford urged Quebec and British Columbia to drop their EV sales targets to boost the country’s competitiveness.

• It will be a sizzling summer of soccer. As 48 teams clash in the FIFA World Cup, they are also facing another formidable opponent: unusually hot weather, and El Nino, a natural warming cycle, that will “pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” according to UN Secretary General António Guterres. The event, hosted by Canada, the U.S. and Mexico, also has a heavy carbon footprint.

  

Hidden in Plain Sight: Recognizing conservation on working lands

In a guest commentary, Catherine Grenier, President & CEO, Nature Conservancy of Canada, writes about assigning value to nature.

From agriculture and forestry to municipalities and mining, many sectors are actively managing their lands in ways that deliver real, measurable conservation outcomes. But these outcomes are not properly acknowledged or reflected on balance sheets. These outcomes do not formally advance conservation targets or inform conservation decision-making, and are not included in the frameworks that assign value to nature. 

It is time to acknowledge these sectors more intentionally as contributors to the conservation community and conversation. Together, we can identify and advance practical approaches to using our lands that continue to support biodiversity outcomes.

OECMs: Acknowledge, encourage, scale

The first step in deepening this collaboration is formally acknowledging the work that is already being done. One approach is through Other Effective Area-Based Conservation Measures (OECM) recognition.

OECMs are sites, other than Protected Areas, that achieve effective, long-term conservation–even though they are managed primarily for other reasons. They offer a way to value and sustain strong land management practices, which allows biodiversity to persist over the long term.

Consider, for example, the choices cities make to protect drinking water through land-use restrictions and watershed management. Or how landowners and corporations exempt portions of forestland from active logging and industrial extractive use. Ranchers support conservation-compatible activities like grazing native grasslands. Green infrastructure sustains wildlife connectivity by limiting the land fragmentation caused by human development.

OECM recognition is one way to make these long-term commitments visible and credible, offering something real to show in markets that are increasingly asking about environmental contributions. 

OECMs in action

Earlier this year, the city of Saint John, New Brunswick, formally recognized 4,800 hectares of city-owned land as having special conservation status. The land includes mature, intact forests, lake shorelines, and rich wetlands that are used to enhance and safeguard the city’s drinking water supply, with its benefits extending beyond the health and well-being of its citizens.

In 2022, J.D. Irving, Limited, became the first forestry company in Canada to have some of its land recognized as an OECM: nearly 10,000 hectares of Acadian forest and coastline. This land supports public commitments and recreational use, while also conserving some of the province’s most unique and species-rich areas.

The path forward

OECMs are not new, but the federal government’s recently released Strategy to Protect Nature has reinvigorated a policy environment that can accelerate their use. Collectively, we have an opportunity to define the path forward, embrace innovation, collaborate on new ways to engineer solutions for, and with, partners whose efforts are not currently being accounted for.

For conservation leaders, this means exploring ideas like: How and where are industry-led management decisions leading to durable conservation outcomes? How can these management practices be strengthened and supported for the long term? And where is there opportunity to develop tools that can respond to both industry and biodiversity needs?

OECM recognition has gained momentum on working ranches, within sustainably managed forests, in municipalities, and within research and recreation landscapes. The opportunity ahead lies in working alongside industry to dig deeper, get creative, and determine where else they might apply.

This approach also opens the door to greater recognition, more meaningful support, and stronger community engagement. It makes clear that when considered together, nature and economics can work harmoniously.

Conversations

• In the new world order, Canada will need to play its many cards more assertively: low-carbon natural gas, critical minerals, food and fertilizer, nuclear fuel, and a stable rule-of-law environment that capital increasingly prizes, notes John Stackhouse, Senior Vice-President, Office of the CEO, RBC, in his analysis of the recently-concluded U.S.-Canada Summit hosted by RBC and the Eurasia Group.

• At the Climate Smart Buildings Alliance 2026 Leadership Summit industry leaders explored ways building and construction sectors can drive Canada’s economic growth while meeting our climate commitments. Stephanie Shewchuk from RBC Thought Leadership engaged with the ideas and innovators driving this conversation forward. Read some of the highlights from the event here.

• At London Climate Action Week next week, more than 75,000 attendees will discuss the state of energy transition, supply chains, energy security, sustainable cities, and carbon removal, among others. Are you attending? Send us your thoughts. #LCAW2026

• The rise of batteries shoots down the argument that “the wind doesn’t always blow, and the sun doesn’t always shine,” notes Alison Reeves, program director at Grattan Institute. “Who cares any more if we can store electricity at scale?”

➔ F1’s race ahead in sustainable fuel initiative

➔ Arrell Food Institute’s Evan Fraser on what keeps him up at night

➔ What’s Canada’s next big climate policy moment?

Signals

Clean energy spending is set to nearly double that of fossil fuels for the first time. For every dollar going to oil, gas, and coal (US$1.2 trillion), nearly two are expected to flow to renewables, nuclear, grids, storage, efficiency, and electrification in 2026, estimates the International Energy Agency in its World Energy Investment 2026 report. The Middle East conflict is reshaping energy investment in real time, pushing energy security to the forefront, notes Clean Tech Lead Vivan Sorab. Global energy investment is on track to hit US$3.4 trillion this year, a 5% rise from 2025, with solar investments attracting US$1 billion a day on average. Nuclear is also back, with 78 GW under construction across 15 countries and annual investment above US$80 billion. However, not all signals are positive, with coal supply investment reaching US$180 billion, the highest since 2012.

Montreal recently hosted Formula 1 with a new generation of sustainable fuels, continuing its legacy of climate leadership (Montreal Protocol, 1987; Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, 2022), writes Senior Vice-President, Office of the CEO, John Stackhouse, who was at the high-but-sustainable-octane event. It was part of F1’s new fuels standard this season targeting net zero by 2030. The cars ran on 100% Advanced Sustainable Fuel, with Team Mercedes winning the Canadian Grand Prix using fuel developed by partner Petronas. The sustainability initiative extends beyond fuel: support crews travelled via cargo planes using sustainable aviation fuels, and cars feature enhanced efficiency designs. Montreal also recently hosted the FIA Sustainable Innovation Series exploring how AI and technology drive efficiency gains.

This is Canada’s hottest climate tech

For Sarah Goodman, the wildfire crisis hits close to home. Almost everyone in British Columbia now knows someone who’s been evacuated from their home due to wildfires, said Vancouver-based Goodman, who leads NorthX, the B.C. firm that’s identified wildfire as a strategic sector to deploy “hard” climate solutions.

The firm, backed by federal and provincial governments and Shell, has invested $5.5 million in wildfire tech, including a fresh $2.2 million round in three promising startups. This year’s wildfire season is already ravaging parts of B.C. and Alberta, as temperatures recently hit 23.9 degrees in Vancouver—breaking a 128-year-old May record.

Wildfires both result from, and accelerate, climate change. Hotter weather turns forests into tinderboxes, sparking economic and environmental disasters:

• Insured losses from wildfires in Canada soared 1,003% to reach $8.1 billion between 2016-2025, compared with $734 million the previous decade, according to CatIQ.

  

• As much as 7% of Canada’s oil production was briefly shut during an Alberta wildfire last year, with major pipeline infrastructure perilously close to the flames.

• 2023 and 2025 were Canada’s two worst wildfire seasons ever. Wildfire carbon emissions in Canada in the first 10 months of 2025 hit 250 megatonnes (for context the nation’s GHG emissions were 661.5 MT in 2024), according to the European Commission’ Copernicus database.

• If Canada’s forest wildfires were a country, they would have been the world’s eighth-largest emitter in 2023, according to 440megatonnes.ca. Yet wildfires from unmanaged forests are not counted in Canada’s official emissions.

• “The rate of change in wildland fire severity and behaviour is accelerating faster than we can comfortably keep pace with,” says Stacey Sankey, Natural Resource Canada’s policy advisor and author of Blueprint for Wildland Fire Science in Canada (2019-2029).

Investment is ramping up to suppress, mitigate and manage wildfires—but as Goodman notes, “we are in the early stage of wildfire tech”:

• In April, NorthX Climate Tech invested a combined $2.2 million in three B.C. startups in a new round: Crown.ai, Nova and Skyward Wildfire Technologies.

  • Crwn.Ai uses artificial intelligence to predict power line-caused ignitions;

  • Nova—another AI-powered tech—uses aerial data to identify potential hotpots;

  • and Skyward aims to tackle lightning—often sparking destructive fires.

• “Wildfires behave differently in different geographies,” said Goodman, but there are opportunities to export Canadian tech. Nova, for example, operates in 200 jurisdictions globally.

• The federal government is boosting wildfire funding by $70 million to $629.8 million through 2030. Some of the $290-billion defence budget could also serve dual purpose for aerial monitoring and wildfire suppression.

A blueprint for fighting wildfires

When it comes to wildfires, Stacey Sankey wrote the blueprint—literally. The Senior Policy Advisor at the Canadian Forest Service authored the Blueprint for Wildland Fire Science in Canada (2019-2029). The situation has improved significantly, but there is still meaningful work to be done, Stacey said. The interview is edited for brevity:

Q: Have the challenges you identified in the report improved or worsened since its publication?

A: Blueprint made 15 recommendations to guide science investments, attract new partnerships, and align national research efforts. Progress on the human resources gap has been real. A $5 million investment, through Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) and the National Science and Engineering Research Council (NSERC), created a Wildland Fire Research Network, anchored at the University of Alberta, developing 68 wildland fire professionals across master’s, PHD, and post-doctoral programs. As a part of this network, numerous universities have expanded their programs to include wildland fire related research and courses. The federal government has also invested heavily in training more community-based firefighters. That said, progress continues to be stretched by the scale of growth in wildland fire severity.

Q: Which of your recommendations have been implemented?

A: There has been substantial and concrete movement across the Blueprint’s core recommendations: on increasing research and innovation capacity, respecting Indigenous knowledge, expanding partnerships, and sharing governance and coordination.

NRCan has strengthened data, modelling and decision support systems, including modernization of the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS) and the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS). New target investments have advanced wildland fire risk assessment tools, while NSERC Network created a new generation of trained wildland fire expertise.

On Indigenous fire stewardship, implementation includes establishment of REDFire (Reciprocity, Ecology, and Diversity in Fire) Lab and Thunderbird Collective, which work to advance Indigenous leadership and knowledge in wildland fire management.

The federal government is supporting provinces and territories to procure specialized equipment, train firefighters, and secure aerial firefighting capacity. Canada also committed to international cooperation through the G7 Kananaskis Wildfire Charter and WildFireSat, a collaboration between NRCan, Environment and Climate Change Canada, and the Canadian Space Agency, which will be the world’s first government-owned satellite system for monitoring wildfires.

Q: What other challenges have emerged since the report was published?

A: The rate of change in wildland fire severity and behaviour is accelerating faster than we can comfortably keep pace with and firefighting resources continue to be stretched, keeping Canada reliant on international resources during extreme fire events. There also continues to be more work that can be done in advancing Indigenous wildfire stewardship.

The converging polycrisis of food, climate change and inflation

Sitting at the intersection of food, sustainability and climate change, Evan Fraser, Executive Director at the Arrell Food Institute at the University of Guelph, is worried a changing climate could trigger a global polycrisis. Still, he believes Canada can step up to be a source of food stability for the world.

Q: What’s one thing you wish more people understood about the relationship between climate change and our food system?

A: While we often talk about energy systems (heating, lights, power, gas) as a key lever through which we can address climate change, food is also a very big lever. Food systems produce around 30% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. But systems can become net-zero, or even “net-negative” (i.e. absorb more greenhouse gases than they emit), with a few big changes. The secret is to reduce fossil fuel use in food production and supply chains, apply inputs like fertilizer with precision, and build up the soil’s organic matter. The latter is where the “net-negative” opportunity lies. Soil organic matter is essentially carbon dioxide turned into plant material. If farmers adopt practices such as reducing soil disturbance, it allows soil organic matter to build up, pulling carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Soil organic matter also acts like a sponge, trapping water when it is available and holding onto it when it is needed, making soil more resilient to extreme whether events.

Q: What climate and food-related issues are keeping you up at night?

A: What’s keeping me up at night isn’t climate change on its own, but the interaction of climate, geopolitical and economic changes. I worry these stressors are building to a cascade of crises that may overwhelm countries and households. 

Since the U.S./Israel-Iran war started, and the Strait of Hormuz was blockaded, fertilizer prices have skyrocketed, forcing farmers all over the world—especially small-scale farmers in Africa and other places—to cut back. This will result in lower yields. At the same time, the U.S. Mid-West is experiencing severe drought, the Indian monsoon is set to be weak, and a major El Niño threatens the Southern Hemisphere’s next growing season.

I am worried we are facing a polycrisis. Over the next six to 12 months, several things may go wrong in the food system, triggering another rash of food inflation. One risky scenario is a repeat of widespread food riots of 2008-2011 that exploded in Haiti, Cameroon, and dozens of other countries. I am already seeing worrying signs that we could be heading back to this area in places like Kenya. A bad harvest this year due to climate change could accelerate the disturbances, leading to political volatility. 

Q: What innovations in the food system are you most optimistic about? And what do you think Canada’s role is (or should be) in advancing the innovation?

A: Canada should set itself up to become the world’s most reliable and trusted exporter of food and agri-food exports not only as an economically valuable commodity to be traded but also a strategic lever. Through food exports, we can export geopolitical stability and resilience, and that is a role that Canada should lean into, especially in this extraordinarily turbulent moment. 

To lead, we need major investment in agri-food research and training, focusing on innovations like drought and pest-tolerant seeds, AI decision-support tools for farmers, and smart tractors. These advances will help Canadian farmers navigate climate change and geopolitical disturbances. These innovations, combined with our farmers, geography and land and water resources, Canada is positioned to become one of the world’s most important breadbaskets this century. 

Conversations

• Rick Smith of the Canadian Climate Institute believe Canada’s next big climate policy moment will be the release of federal vehicle regulations to reach the equivalent of a 75% EV adoption rate by 2035.

• Michael Liebreich on the Great Clean Energy Acceleration 2.0—a discontinuity in energy markets as profound as the oil shocks of the 1970s.

• Jonathan Stern, Distinguished Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, asks in a report: are efforts to reduce flaring from oil and gas upstream operations a lost cause?

• Celeste Saulo, secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization, warns why the El Niño weather phenomenon expected this summer is an “urgent climate warning.”

• Pathways for pipeline: Breaking down the Alberta-Canada deal

• Why Hope Bay project boosts Indigenous participation

• Oil is spiking, but clean energy stocks are the ones getting a bump

Signals

Honda may have shelved its $15-billion EV plant in Ontario—but there’s a world where Canada’s assembly lines bustle with activity. In Steering Through Uncertainty, RBC Thought Leadership’s Managing Director Jordan Brennan outlines four possible futures for the embattled Canadian auto industry. One of the rosier forecasts sees the industry restore access to the U.S. market, unlock billions in pledged investment for EVs and conventional vehicles, and ramp up car assembly to two million by 2040 (from 1.3 million today). Leveraging critical mineral reserves bolsters the case for made-in-Canada cars. That’s the fast lane scenario. Other projections lead to diversification, deceleration, and even a dead end. Dive into all four scenarios here.

Hope Bay project promises Inuit-led development. Ottawa broke ground on the $2 billion redevelopment of the Hope Bay gold mine in Nunavut—projecting $2.6 billion in annual export growth and nearly 2,000 jobs. Ottawa also committed $25 million to the Kitikmeot Tugliq Energy Hope Bay Wind Project, an Inuit-owned wind and battery storage system that will power the mine. The project is a useful real-world test of the framework examined in Nations Building, our assessment of Indigenous loan guarantee programs in Canada’s new project wave. Hope Bay is promising on three counts:(1)The mine will be powered by wind and batteries rather than diesel. (2) Indigenous equity participation in mining remains structurally underrepresented. Hope Bay is gold, not a critical mineral, but it establishes a template for the harder projects that follow. (3) An Inuit-owned energy project powering a mine on Inuit lands offers opportunities communities in remote regions toparticipate in Canada’s new projects.

Oil prices are spiking, but momentum rests with low-carbon stocks. Clean energy companies benefit from both elevated fossil fuel prices and accelerating renewable policy support on growing concerns over energy independence, Christopher Dendrinos, RBC Capital Market’s clean energy analyst, told us. This is particularly pronounced in oil-and-gas import-reliant Europe. While natural gas dominates the data centre space, renewables are also benefiting from rising demand to power AI. “The sector remains resilient going forward given the strong energy demand macro backdrop,” Dendrinos said.

Pipeline for Pathways, and a climate reset for Canada

Canada and Alberta’s landmark Implementation Agreement last week builds on the November 2025 Memorandum of Understanding that aimed to balance Canada’s economic and environmental goals.  However, the Implementation Agreement doesn’t stand alone. A day before, Carney had launched a National Electricity Strategy committing to double Canada’s grid capacity by 2050, with consultations now underway with provinces, territories, Indigenous Peoples, utilities, and unions. The strategy projects up to $15 billion in total energy savings and lower energy costs for 7 in 10 Canadian households. Natural gas retains a role for grid stability, nuclear and geothermal get explicit support, and the Clean Electricity Investment Tax Credit is being extended to intra-provincial transmission. A joint Alberta-Canada Electricity Working Group has been struck to advance the work.

Other stakeholders will now weigh in on the national electricity strategy, but the Alberta-MoU is much further ahead and poised for action. Energy Policy Lead Shaz Merwat breaks down its key highlights:

• Carbon pricing in Alberta is locked in through 2040: Headline TIER (Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction) prices: $95 today, $115 per tonne in 2030, $130 in 2035, $140 in 2040. The federal backstop will be updated to match — this is now effectively the national industrial carbon pricing framework.

• A binding floor on TIER credits — for the first time: Starting at $60/t in 2030, rising to $110/t by 2040. Pre-MOU, TIER credits traded at roughly $20 against a $95 headline. The floor is the most consequential new mechanism in the deal.

• 75 Mt of Carbon Contracts for Difference: Jointly issued 2030–2040, equally cost-shared, $600 million maximum liability per party ($1.2 billion aggregate). If either government walks back, that party assumes sole liability.

• The West Coast pipeline has a defined timeline: Alberta submits to the Major Projects Office by July 1, with Ottawa designating it as a “project of national interest” under the Building Canada Act by October 1. The one million barrels per day pipeline to Asian markets could start construction by September 2027.

• No Pathways, no pipeline. The two projects are explicitly mutually dependent. Pathways targets 16 Mtpa in total emissions reductions: 6 Mtpa by 2035, 5 Mtpa by 2040, 5 Mtpa by 2045. The trilateral MOU with the Oil Sands Alliance is still unsigned.

• Sector-specific stringency rates. Large oil sands companies face 2% annual tightening of emissions intensity through to 2040 under revamped TIER, while Pathways operators see a tightening of just 1% from 2031 onwards.

• Co-operation agreement on Impact Assessment. Two-year cap on impact assessments and federal deference to provincial processes where projects fall primarily within Alberta’s jurisdiction.

• Indigenous economic participation centred across the framework. Co-ownership and equity partnership paths referenced repeatedly in today’s Implementation Agreement and the Co-operation Agreement on Impact Assessment.

• The Co-operation agreement reflects intriguingly different working on UNDRIP. Canada maintains its commitment, while Alberta views UNDRIP as non-binding.

• Climate targets remain intact. Both Alberta and Ottawa re-commit their target of net zero by 2050.

Taken together, the twin announcements represent a potential move towards creating the most comprehensive federal-provincial energy framework Canada has produced in a decade — covering carbon markets, carbon capture, storage and utilization, oil export infrastructure, and grid expansion simultaneously. The architecture is scoped, but execution will be key. The proxies to watch over the summer, in the lead-up to Ottawa’s Canada Investment Summit in September: a named pipeline proponent, the trilateral MOU with the Oil Sands Alliance, and the first material Indigenous consent agreement on the pipeline route.

Conversations

• Long-term uncertainty in global oil markets may ultimately accelerate the shift toward EVs as Canada strengthens domestic electricity generation, Victor Fedeli, Ontario’s Minister of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade, told John Stackhouse at the Toronto Region Board of Trade Auto Event.

• Agriculture Policy Lead Lisa Ashton on why Canada and other countries are embarking on a fertilizer emissions accounting overhaul. Read the brief here.

• It’s hard to trace where critical minerals come from, weakening their environmental bona fides. Around 30-40% of the companies have a traceability system. The International Energy Agency says strengthening incentives for collecting and sharing data could be one of five ways to address the challenge.

• Alberta’s “failure” to build new transmission could cost consumers in the province over a  quarter of a billion dollars annually through higher electricity bills, Will Noel, of the Pembina Institute, estimates.

• Leah Stokes, a professor of environmental politics at the University of California-Santa Barbara, says the current U.S. administration’s push away from clean sources is costing each American household US$1,508 this year alone.

➔ Renewable projects can serve as a playbook for Indigenous participation in future developments

➔ How methane abatement could replace lost Middle East gas supplies

➔ Your backyard can help save the environment

Signals

Power and utilities dominate Indigenous participation. That’s both its strength and its constraint, says Energy Policy Lead Shaz Merwat. Loan guarantee programs have been most active in western Canada, while northern communities, closest to the mineral deposits the energy transition requires, lack transaction readiness. Yet, the electrification trend offers substantial Indigenous investment opportunities nationwide. Read our Nations Building report that examines ways to boost First Nations participation as Canada embarks on a new project wave.

Methane mitigation could replace gas supplies stranded due to the Strait of Hormuz closure. That’s the stunning assessment from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which estimates that available methane abatement measures could free up to 200 billion cubic metres of natural gas—or double the supply volumes cut off due to the virtual closure of the Strait. Large quantities of produced gas are not being put to productive use, owing to methane leaks, and flaring and venting from oil and gas operations. The cost-effective, proven technologies could abate three-quarters of emissions from oil and gas and about half of coal emissions, according to the IEA. (Also read: What the Canada-Alberta methane deal means for businesses).

Nature conservation icon Sir David Attenborough is now eyeing his backyard for sustainability. After traversing the world’s wildest places, Attenborough’s new BBC series focuses on the often overlooked garden. It may have several low-hanging fruits, literally: home gardens can reduce carbon emissions, sequester carbon, and produce fresh food (pro tip: use rainwater to go truly green). Canadians already have a head start: About three in five Canadian households (59%) grew fruit, herbs, vegetables or flowers for personal use in a survey a few years ago.

How the Middle East conflict is accelerating renewable energy adoption

It’s early days, but the stalemate playing out over the Strait of Hormuz is forcing countries to renew their focus on electrifying their way out of fossil fuels. We have been here before as recently as 2022 when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, upending European energy ties to Russian oil and gas. Yet coal, oil and gas rebounded to near all-time highs.

Will it be different this time? Here are five ways the crisis has rekindled momentum for energy transition.

1. Global consensus is hardening. Santa Marta, Colombia, was the site last week of the First Conference on Transitioning away from Fossil Fuels, where 57 nations—including Canada—sought ways to move towards cleaner energy.While several lofty goals were expounded, a key takeaway was to launch a panel of experts who would provide scientific input on reducing fossil fuel dependence, high energy prices and extreme weather damage. It could be a breeding ground for new ideas.

2. AccelerateEU aims to shield Europe from energy price shocks. One idea is to accelerate the shift to “home green clean energy,” including an Electrification Action Plan to be released by the European Commission by the summer.

3. Knee-jerk consumer behaviour could alter long-term demand. Global EV sales jumped 66% in March compared to February, as some consumers baulked at the prices at the pump and switched to EVs. Several countries in Europe and Asia had record-breaking months. That could have long lasting consequences for fuel demand and what’s called” demand destruction.” In Canada, more than 12,600 zero-emission vehicles were sold in February, compared with nearly 8,700 the month before, recent Statistics Canada data shows. An AutoTrader survey of 17,000 Canadians found half of respondents would now consider buying an EV.

local bureaucrats

4. Chinese bureaucrats are now on the clean-energy case. The country is launching a campaign aimed at accelerating climate action by local authorities, in an effort to plateau CO2 emissions before 2030. At stake: rewards and career progress for local bureaucrats. Never underestimate the resourcefulness of a middle manager keen to get their performance bonus.

5. Most renewables are now competitive with fossil fuels. Even before the Iran war, the price competitiveness of solar and wind energy was the primary driver of power sector decarbonization, according to Ember Energy. In 2025, the average Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for solar ($39/MWh) and onshore wind ($40/MWh) was 60% lower than that of combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT), which stood at $102/MWh. Offshore wind ($100/MWh) has also reached price parity CCGT. US$100+ oil prices only make the case for renewables more compelling. China’s export of photovoltaic solar panels, lithium-ion batteries and new-energy vehicles rose 70% in March year-on-year, Carbon Brief’s analysis of Chinese customs data shows.

The Climate Competitiveness Strategy update

Here’s what Lisa Ashton, Head of Research, gleaned from Ottawa’s latest Spring Economic Update:

Clean investment push continues. Expanded tax credits and incentives for carbon capture, clean electricity, and clean technologies aim to attract private capital and scale domestic innovation.

Proposed $5 billion in international climate investment. Flowing through Environment and Climate Change Canada, FinDev and Global Affairs Canada, the update proposes spending on climate initiatives and technology development in emerging economies around the world to advance global decarbonization. Carbon pricing framework is reinforced. Working to strengthen industrial carbon pricing benchmarks and ensuring consistent national standards remain central to competitiveness. Yet, key decisions are pending, namely performance standards. Another obstacle: the oil industry is pushing back on the carbon tax.

Funding of $3.5 billion towards scaling nature positive outcomes. Announced in the government’s Force of Nature strategy, the federal government will stimulate investments in nature, tying climate competitiveness to conservation goals (e.g., protecting 30% of lands and waters by 2030).

Integration with broader economic strategy. The proposed Sustainable Finance Conference and the development of the made-in Canada sustainable investment guidelines aim to connect public and private dollars in key economic sectors, linking sustainable investments to jobs, affordability, and global competitiveness.

The takeaway. Canada is doubling down on a market-driven, investment-led approach to climate policy. The country will need to advance key strategies and agreements including the energy MoU with Alberta to drive real outcomes through its renewed approach.

Conversations

• Atthe First Nations Major Project Coalition’s 9^th annual conference, John Stackhouse discussed how economic reconciliation and Indigenous equity are vital to ensure Canada’s big ambitions are fully realized.

• Gregory Brew, a historian of international energy and U.S.-Iranian relations and a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group, on how America would pay dearly for its energy arrogance.

• Subsidies and price floors are temporary tools, demand is what would sustain prices and investor confidence in critical minerals, writes Gracelin Baskaran, director, critical minerals security, at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.