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Davos 2025: Searching for nuggets in the new golden age

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Davos has seen a few golden ages during its time. In the 1880s, the Swiss Alps town became one of Europe’s early tourist destinations when a new class of travellers took to the “grand tour.” Davos added to its lustre in the 1920s as a spa resort for a newly confident class of Europeans. And in the 1990s, it gained a special renown as home to the World Economic Forum, which was rapidly growing in prominence at the time as the intellectual centre of globalization.

But none of those moments may have quite matched the American exuberance that took to the sleepy ski town this week. Rather than showing signs of retreat, the U.S. came in force—700 strong—including Silicon Valley titans, Wall Street billionaires, Nobel laureates, industrialists and, as if to put the gold in golden age, Olympic ski legends Lindsay Vonn and Picabo Street. To cap it off, President Donald Trump—a longtime Davos fan—video-conferenced in from Washington to both berate other government and business leaders for not pulling their weight, and to talk up American exceptionalism. Golden or not, a new age felt like it had begun—not just for the 50 heads of government and 3,000 others in attendance, but for much of the world.

Here are some of the themes that emerged at this year’s Forum:

1. America’s confidence has rarely been higher

The mood among American CEOs, and investors, was what one Davos veteran  called “giddy.” Donald Trump’s triumphal declaration of a “golden age” seems to have given businesses a shot of confidence that has changed many 2025 outlooks. The U.S economy is showing such strength that the International Monetary Fund raised its global growth forecast for 2025, from 2.2% to 2.7%, as corporations invest, especially in artificial intelligence (AI), and look to acquisitions. The U.S. is now the world’s premier destination for investment, by a long shot. In the 12 months before Trump returned to power, it attracted US$227 billion in greenfield investment projects—up by US$100 billion and more than China, India and Britain combined. Consumers are showing renewed confidence, too, while Trump’s promise to cut corporate taxes and slash regulations has quickly unleashed the animal spirits of a free market. Even the tariff threats that are rattling trade partners are seen as a win at home, pushing businesses to build inventories and domestic capacity. More than policies, Trump seems to want to restore enthusiasm in corporate America and the broader economy, and stretch the country’s ambitions. “The impossible is what we do best,” he said by video conference. While American exceptionalism may carry companies and markets for a while, risks could cloud  the sunny outlook. Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)—and its massive subsidies that are now on the chopping block—was a big reason for a lot of that investment. Inflation is another worry, as the massively indebted U.S. government continues to spend and compete with all that private investment. Immigration cuts are threatening the labour supply and could drive up wages, too. All that has put pressure on long-term interest rates, as investors wonder if inflation is truly conquered. Larry Fink, BlackRock’s CEO, said he could see a scenario in which 10-year bond yields hit 5.5%—not his forecast, he stresses, but just a distinct possibility that could dampen some of the giddiness.

Question for 2025 (Q25): Will an America First administration be able to work with other countries to keep global imbalances from tipping?

2. Europe’s confidence has seldom been lower

European leaders usually flock to Davos to tell the rest of the world about their special place in global affairs, diplomacy, business and economic policy. Not this time. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen led a procession of voices from the continent, expressing concern about its prospects. American business and government leaders, including Trump, used the Davos stage to make it clear that Europe had become almost uninvestible because of the extraordinary layers of red tape that constrict companies and entrepreneurs. (One executive said new sustainability reporting rules required his company to answer 800 questions in its submission.) Von der Leyen acknowledged that a generation of young entrepreneurs was at risk of leaving for America and elsewhere, and conceded that Trump’s “Golden Age” messaging was a “wake-up call” for Europe. German opposition leader Friedrich Merz, who is expected to win next month’s election and become Chancellor, shared his conservative agenda of cutting taxes, slashing energy bills for manufacturers (prices have soared since Germany went off nuclear and then Russia cut gas supplies), reducing unemployment benefits and cutting family immigration levels to focus on skilled workers. He also wants to confront the Brussels bureaucracy. But it took an American, BlackRock’s Fink, to see some opportunity in the shifting winds, especially if Europe can agree to a single capital market. “There’s too much pessimism in Europe,” he told an audience on the final day. “It’s probably time to be investing back into Europe.”

Q25: Will a further expected shift to the right create momentum for deep changes to the European Union?

3. Supply shocks add to geopolitical risks

Just as the world is trying to find a new normal in the aftermath of the pandemic, the abnormal has become common. Some central bankers at Davos expressed concern about the growing threat of “supply shocks”—the disruptions in the global economy that gum up the free flow of markets. Their interest rate policies can control inflation only so much. Take the Panama Canal, for instance, one of Trump’s early targets. Any disruption to its normal operations could send inflation jumping again. Same for the Suez Canal, where Iran casts a dark shadow. The two conflicts of greatest concern to Trump—Ukraine and Gaza—could easily turn worse, and spread through their neighbourhoods at a time when many countries are pulling back from multilateral institutions like the United Nations. And then there’s perhaps the biggest risk on the supply side: climate-related disasters. Trump expressed confidence his administration can restore peace and some certainty where others had failed. He’s already opened an active channel with China’s President Xi Jinping, and suggested they work together to end the Ukraine war (Trump would handle the Ukrainians; Xi would work on Vladimir Putin). He took credit for the Israeli-Hamas ceasefire, too, and said he’d like to work on nuclear disarmament with China and Russia once Ukraine is settled. Many Davos regulars wondered if Trump, having twice won the U.S. presidency, is now angling for the Nobel Peace Prize, too.

Q25: Can shrewd negotiating skills and the strong arm of U.S. influence keep the world from greater war?

4. Energy dominance is a thing, but who will pay for it?

Say what you like about Trump, but he doesn’t mince words. And on energy, his message to the Davos crowd was clear: “Drill, baby, drill.” The Europeans seated around me in the conference hall looked shocked, until he said he would guarantee natural gas supplies for Europe. The desire for more of all kinds of energy—Trump cited oil, natural gas, nuclear, even coal—will be a relief to people in many countries struggling with high energy costs. But the political goal of “energy dominance” will have to overcome some market fundamentals. The sector has been starved of capital for much of the past decade, and may not want to invest billions of dollars on new production when prices are uncertain and perhaps falling. There’s the supply-chain challenge, too. New rigs and pipelines need a lot of heavy materials and skilled labour that are in short supply. The same goes for critical minerals which Trump wants the U.S., and allies such as Canada, to develop in order to wean themselves from Chinese supplies. Nuclear energy, which is gaining popularity, will have its own set of challenges in terms of time-frames and costs. As for the fastest-growing source of energy in the U.S., and elsewhere, the near-term fate of solar and wind is suddenly less certain. They’ve benefitted greatly from IRA, and now have to make it more on their own merits.

Q25: Will energy expansion be paid for mostly by governments, businesses or consumers?

5. The world is starting to re-arm, and re-aim

In the WEF’s annual risk survey of its members, armed conflict topped the list for the year ahead; two years ago, it didn’t even crack the Top 10. Ukraine has Europeans on edge, especially if the U.S. pulls back, while the Taiwan Strait is a worry to Asia. And the Middle East remains nervous as a weakened Iran—after losing influence in Syria, Lebanon and Gaza—considers its options. Despite Trump’s promise of peace-making, he and other leaders speaking at Davos made clear that governments in the coming years will be spending a lot more on defence. And that will mean competition for both new technologies and the old materials—steel, for instance—that every military machine is built on. The need for an advanced manufacturing sector is a key reason both Germany and the U.S. are looking to rebuild their industrial bases, to ensure they can manufacture  their own weapons. They may have a harder time building up their troops, given aging demographics across the West and young generations’ reluctance to sign up for military service. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy came to Davos, in military fatigues, to maintain support for his efforts—and also issue a warning to Europe and its allies. Russia has a military force of 1.4 million, including 600,000 on and around Ukrainian soil. After that, Ukraine is the largest force in Europe, with 800,000 troops. France is next at 200,000. Moreover, Ukraine relies on the U.S. for more than a third of its weapons, and continues to build arms factories to gain more independence. Mark Rutte, NATO’s new secretary-general, warned of growing “hybrid” threats through the weaponization of civilian devices like drones (and pagers). Zelenskyy suggested Europe build an “iron dome” like Israel to protect itself from Russian missiles. It may need other defensive shields, including cyber ones, as warfare rapidly evolves, leaving no nation truly safe.

Q25: As AI increasingly powers dual-use weapons, will they be more useful to democracies or dictatorships?

6. Meet Gen AI’s agents of change

AI has become as common a theme at Davos as the economic outlook, and the two are increasingly intertwined. Unlike previous years when AI was debated largely by technologist and ethicists, it’s now firmly the domain of business operators too, thanks to the explosion of AI agents  at work. Small wonder it’s called the agentic era. In the U.S. alone, more than 5,000 companies have been created in the last decade to help businesses deploy AI agents in call centres, on sales teams and in back offices. A WEF study released at Davos found companies that lead in AI adoption outperform their peers by 15% in revenue, with the biggest growth coming in financial services, telecom and media. A range of public and private enterprises shared their experience more broadly with AI, from accelerating drug discovery to providing municipal services in dozens of languages and advancing cancer detection. Copilots and agents have gained additional traction in education—in schools as well as workplaces, as AI increasingly personalizes and predicts a learning journey. Marc Benioff, CEO of Salesforce, a leader in the agent space, says the challenge now for organizations investing in AI is to develop more than tech talent. The coming preponderance of AI agents in every aspect of organizations is going to require  new approaches to corporate culture and team-building, because the teams of tomorrow will include active learning AI agents. Benioff told a roomful of business leaders: “We’re going to be the last CEOs who will be managing only humans as our workforce.“

Q25: Is society ready to work with mixed teams of people and AI agents?

7. DEI seems to be MIA. Will climate manage to stay?

Diversity, equity and inclusion used to be central themes at Davos. No more, other than as an attack line for some politicians. Trump rattled the crowd—you could see people bristle in their chairs—when he called diversity initiatives “nonsense” and stressed, a few times, America would be a “meritocracy.” His rhetoric was tame compared to a speech earlier that day from Argentina’s Javier Milei, who railed against social justice efforts, saying rights are enshrined in law and so people don’t need privileges like hiring preferences. Away from the spotlight, some wondered whether the same giant pendulum swing might happen to climate, while Europeans looked to limit the impact of decisions like the U.S. pulling out of the Paris climate accord. Many climate-focused organizations seem to be already quietly shifting their focus, including a swing back to conserving nature. Another shift  may be to move scarce dollars toward helping people and communities adapt to a world with more floods and fires. In the WEF risk report, five of the top 10 long-term risks were still climate-related. They may just need to be addressed differently. And more quietly.

Q25: How will a new class of conservative governments address the rise of climate-related disasters and damages?

8. The populists now have to deliver … to the people

Many political thinkers and historians at Davos had one eye on the new voices on the world stage, and another on the people who voted them in. Why? The populists now have to deliver, which won’t be easy in an age of tightening budgets and rising expectations. Gillian Tett, an anthropologist and journalist who is now provost of Cambridge University, cautioned the audience to be mindful of “social silence”—and the undercurrents that can pull any government under. The biggest risk, in her view, is an economic downturn, or worse a financial crisis, at a time when Trump is talking of a golden age and spending public money on things like AI and cryptocurrency that don’t mean much at the kitchen table. Despite his popularity now, Americans could grow more hostile if Trump’s wealthiest advisers were seen to profit from his policies while the general economy suffered. Such a prospect would play into a broader and growing anti-elite sentiment, which appears to be particularly strong among younger people. The annual Edelman Trust Barometer, released at Davos, showed this year an astonishing rise in the acceptance of violence among younger adults, as a means of expressing discontent. Lawrence Summers, the noted American economist, former Treasury Secretary and long-time Davos-goer, said governments would be wise to focus on service-delivery rather than grand promises and restructurings—getting roads paved, cheques delivered, and communities served in their times of need. In many ways, he noted, it’s overdue and could be good for democracy if it restores confidence in government and institutions.

Q25: Will any Western government be more popular than at the time of its last election?

9. Back to the moon, and beyond

For all the discussions at Davos about markets and policies—it’s the World Economic Forum, after all—the WEF manages to draw an eclectic mix of doers and creators. This year there was a special focus on space, and, yes, the space economy. One evening, under a bright moon, I made my way across the Davos valley, to a small dinner with the heads of several space agencies, and some of the entrepreneurs who are building entirely new sectors to get more people, and equipment, to our outer orbit—and to that shining moon. The diversity of exploration was impressive. Japan is rapidly advancing space robots and precision landing devices (they can land within 10 metres of their destination on the moon). The Japanese are also working with the Indian space agency on the next generation of moon rovers, which the Japanese think they can soon equip with pressurized cabins that will allow astronauts to drive on the surface without full personal equipment. The Saudis are focussed on launching satellites and collecting space debris. A team from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology explained a project to send a ship this month to the South Pole of the Moon, where temperatures range from +1 to -200, to study a crater that’s been visited only once. The European Space Agency has its own big project, to chase an asteroid that is hurtling towards us and will come within 38,000 kilometres of Earth (on Friday, April 13, 2029). A U.S. space investor, Kam Ghaffarian, was at our dinner to explain the hundreds of millions he’s investing in new launch systems, with a 700-person team in Los Angeles. He thinks launch technology will be one of the big growth opportunities, as the U.S. goes from a record 145 orbital launches last year (five times what it was in 2017) to sending that many every few weeks. There will be far more launches every month around the world. Entrepreneurs like Ghaffarian raised US$8.6-billion for space ventures last year—in a sector that a McKinsey & Co. study projects will be worth US$1.8 trillion in another decade. For the space-dreamers, it’s not about the money; it’s about the chance to help humanity rise above ourselves, and see our world as it is from space, with no borders and no conflict. And even among competitors, it’s about collaboration. As Mohammed Al-Tamimi, the CEO of Saudi’s space agency said, “no country will go to the moon and stay on the moon alone.”

Q25: Will the Trump administration formally launch a new Mars project?

John Stackhouse is Senior Vice-President, Office of the CEO, Royal Bank of Canada, and leads the RBC Climate Action Institute.

For more, go to RBC Thought Leadership.

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As part of our Climate Action 2025 report, we launched a national photography program to capture real-world examples of climate action across diverse sectors and regions. This collection highlights the unique stories of climate change, the juxtaposition of industry and nature, and some of the solutions in action. By bridging the gap between complexity and emotional connection, these images aim to inspire meaningful conversations and action. Explore this gallery to celebrate this group of photographers who set out to capture climate action in Canada.

Amanda Shalovelo

Amanda began photography when she was fourteen years old. She is self-taught and enjoys primarily photographing scenes from the backroads of the prairies of Saskatchewan. She has been featured in the Canadian Geographic calendars thirteen times and was recently shortlisted for Canadian Geographic’s upcoming Best Wildlife Photography 2024 special issue and the 2025 Wicked Weather Calendar for Canadian Geographic.

Harmony Le Reste

Harmony is a French photographer focusing her work on nature and the great outdoors. At the age of 22 in 2015, she moved to Montreal, Canada. This change of life was accompanied by the discovery of the wide-open spaces and wild nature characteristics of North America. She began working as a freelancer with the Tourist Offices in 2016 and traveled throughout Quebec. Since 2019, she also offers photo trips and workshops all around the world to aspiring nature photographers directly in the field.

Today, she juggles her multiple hats as a nature photographer, photo travel guide, artistic director and outdoor videographer.

Len Wagg

Len Wagg is an award-winning Canadian photographer, author and presenter. A visual storyteller for over three decades, he is well known for capturing the majestic beauty of his native Nova Scotia’s wildlife and salt-strewn landscapes. His assignments have taken him all the way from the deserts of Ethiopia to the cockpit of a CF-18 over Europe, and all across Canada. His images have appeared in newspapers and magazines around the world.

Marc Gilbert

With a passion for exploring Manitoba’s hidden gems, Marc Gilbert captures stunning images of its sprawling parks and serene rural landscapes. His bold and vibrant photographs evoke a sense of wonder, inspiring viewers to appreciate the beauty of the great outdoors.

See Marc’s full portfolio here.

Mitchell Milbury

Mitchell Milbury is a nature and landscape photographer from New Brunswick, Canada. Most of his photography work highlights the natural beauty of the Maritimes. He was raised in Woodstock, New Brunswick where he spent most of his childhood outdoors. Mitchell practices photography weekly by exploring the province of New Brunswick and creating images that showcase its rich natural environment.

Mitchell’s artwork has been exhibited in New Brunswick galleries, and has sold numerous prints of his artwork online.

You can see Mitchell’s artwork in his online portfolio.

Neil Dankoff

Neil was born and raised in Montreal where he studied Film & Communications at McGill University before heading west to Toronto in 1998. It was at this time that the first digital cameras began to emerge and Neil was instantly hooked. $1400.00 got him a 1.3 megapixel Olympus.

Neil was fortunate to have the opportunity to travel the world and develop his own style of panoramic, landscape photography. Using a Phase One, medium format camera, Neil’s unique approach and technique result in a distinct look that is easily recognizable. Each final piece consists of multiple images captured with varying exposures and focal points, all seamlessly put together in an effort to transport the viewer to a specific time and place.

Neil became a staple in the Toronto art scene and was represented by the prestigious Lonsdale Gallery. Over the next four years, the gallery featured Neil’s work in several solo exhibits.

In 2013, Derek and Kirsty Stern accompanied Neil on a photography trip to Africa. The trip was picture perfect and many more adventures were booked…Bora Bora, Hawaii, Iceland, China, Japan, France, Bolivia etc… In 2015, Neil, Derek and Kirsty opened Kandy Gallery in Montreal. Shortly after, Neil was commissioned by Hotel X Toronto in what would turn out to be the largest fine art photography transaction in Canadian history. He spent close to three years traveling the globe to capture over 800 landscape images for the one of a kind luxury resort hotel. In early 2018, Neil opened Kandy Gallery Toronto in the lobby of Hotel X Toronto and then Kandy Gallery Memphis was launched in December.

Ray Mackey

Ray is a Canadian Landscape & Nature photographer who has been capturing emotion and storylines through imagery for a lifetime and publishing them for the past 15 years. Ray’s travels to other parts of the world to seek out new imagery to capture is an ongoing passion; however, his published works largely focus on the shores of eastern Canada in Newfoundland and has led to being published and displayed in and on the covers of magazines along with other publications and Canadian embassies worldwide.

Read the full report at rbc.com/climateaction25.

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Issue #06

➔ How Canada can stave off a tariff-trigger-happy U.S.
➔ AI vs Emissions: Canada can have it all

Hot takes

Give those sanctimonious Christmas climate blogs a rest. There might be better ways to make you feel less guilty about your Christmas carbon footprint. Can you travel less in the run-up to Christmas, get on public transportation more, avoid that optional plane trip, stop buying wrapping paper—even send less cards (Canada Post is on strike, anyway)? And dig in your Christmas roast guilt-free.

➔ Environment vs economy plays out in two Canadian cities: Crowsnest Pass, Atla., wants to be a coal town again. The 6,000-strong community recently voted in favour of building the Grassy Mountain metallurgical coal project—and it wasn’t even close: 72% voted yes in a high turnout, in the hopes of securing new economic revenues. While the town’s vote is non-binding, it underscores how economic development is trumping environmental concerns for some communities. Further west, Vancouver clung on to its ban on natural gas heating for new homes—but only just. Those in favour of scrapping the ban, including mayor Ken Sims, said it would improve housing affordability in pricey B.C. But it also sparked widespread opposition. A 5-5 tie at the city council vote ensured the ban remains in place.

➔ The backlash against the plastic backlash. Global climate leaders’ very bad, no good, awful year seems to have ended with another disaster this week in South Korea: a failure to agree on plastic pollution . More than 100 countries were pushing to phase out plastic production, but oil producers warned it could impact economic development. Talks will resume next year. The latest stalemate is part of a broader pattern of stalled progress on climate and environmental issues, especially at COP29.

➔ Barbados swapped a portion of its debt for climate commitments. The debt-to-climate swap allows Barbados to restructure higher-interest debt, and generate $125 million in fiscal savings. In return the Caribbean nation has pledged to use the funds to boost water resource management and improve water and food security. It’s emerging as a popular way for developing countries to ease their financial burden in return for greater environmental stewardship. The World Economic Forum estimates debt-for-nature swaps could provide US$100 billion to restore nature and help countries adapt to climate change.

➔ Bi-Weekly Climate Action Award: Omar Yaghi, a chemist at University of California, Berkely, for developing a carbon capture powder. Early tests show just half a pound of the stuff may absorb as much carbon dioxide as a tree.

➔ Bi-Weekly Climate Fail Award: To Norway for offering commercial deep-sea mining—a world first. The government has since postponed the decision amid pressure from a coalition partner. Thirty two countries, including Canada, have called for a moratorium on deep-sea mining in international waters.

5 Energy Aces Up Canada’s Sleeves

President-elect Donald Trump hosted Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at Mar-a-Lago for dinner last week after threatening to impose a blanket 25% tariff on Canadian goods. Trump described the dinner meeting as “productive,” but Canada’s hardly off the hook. Here’s how Ottawa can leverage its energy resources to play a strong hand and steer U.S. away from mutually assured inflation in both countries.

➔ The crude math doesn’t add up: Heavy Canadian oil still trades at roughly a $10 discount to the North American benchmark. A 25% tariff on the U.S.’s biggest oil shipper could send gasoline prices spiking well over their current US$3 per gallon average, nationwide. That could derail energy czar Doug Burgum’s mandate to lower gas to US$2 per gallon. Incidentally, Burgum was at the Trump-Trudeau dinner table.

➔ There’s no American energy dominance without Canada: Canada is the dominant supplier of piped natural gas to the U.S. If the new administration wants to establish American “energy dominance,” it must lean on Canadian gas. A steady supply from the Montney and Duvernay, would give U.S. lawmakers the flexibility to boost American liquefied natural gas exports to Europe and Asia, without raising prices at home.

➔ There’s uranium at the U.S.’s doorstep: The Joe Biden administration’s plan to triple U.S. nuclear capacity is something the new administration will likely be on board with. Biden’s nuclear framework envisions working closely with Canada, among others, to “establish a secure and resilient global nuclear fuel supply chain,” including uranium. Canada is the world’s second largest producer of uranium with output far exceeding the U.S.

➔ We are critical to building an alternative to China’s supply chains: Canada has nearly five times more cobalt reserves and six times more nickel reserves than the U.S, two key metals in energy transition. We are also a bigger producer of aluminum, graphite (for lithium-ion batteries), indium (for chip-making), iron ore and lithium than the U.S., according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The U.S. needs us to loosen China’s hold on global supply chains.

➔ We power your cities. Admittedly, a bit of a weak hand these days (see chart). Still, Hydro Quebec has built new transmission lines and sewn up long-term contracts with customers in Massachusetts and New York. Droughts are playing havoc with Canadian electricity exports, but it remains an important bargaining chip.

AI vs Emissions

Canada can have it all: a foothold in North America’s booming data centre sector powered by artificial intelligence, but also maintain its climate ambitions. What’s needed is a flexible approach, a strategic alignment with the United States—and meaningful levels of abated natural gas.

Power Struggle: How AI is challenging Canada’s electricity grid, a new report by Energy Policy Lead Shaz Merwat, analyzes how Canada can navigate the stress data centres could potentially place on the country’s grid:

➔ What’s the opportunity?:

Canadian regulators are reviewing data centre applications with a combined estimated capacity of 15 gigawatts—enough to power seven out of 10 homes nationwide. AI is the primary driver of this surge, with data centres offering a $100 billion opportunity for the construction and build of data centres and accompanying IT infrastructure (think expensive Nvidia chips).

➔ What’s the playbook?:

“Bring your own power” seems ideal. That’s the Alberta model, which allows for faster deployment and supports local natural gas prices, driving economic benefits for the province.

➔ What are the climate costs?:

If natural gas powers six additional gigawatts of data centres, annual emissions could rise by 16 million tonnes of CO2e—a 3% increase in Canada’s total emissions, Shaz estimates. However, carbon capture and storage (CCS) could throttle the rise of emissions.

Read the full report here.

The Institute In Action

➔ The RBC Climate Action Institute co-hosted a special session in Ottawa in November with the British High Commission, where Institute head John Stackhouse and Deputy High Commissioner David Prodger offered eight key messages for Canada.

➔ John also spoke at the National Electricity Roundtable in Ottawa about Canada’s opportunity to produce more electricity to power AI, EV batteries and other parts of the economy.

➔ John’s whirlwind Ottawa trip concluded with a discussion at the Sustainable Finance Forum on Canada’s opportunity to produce more food and emit less—it could be our best investment for the disruptive decade ahead.

➔ What’s on the team’s reading wish list: John’s been brushing up on his Trumponomics with two books return by the president-elect’s former advisors. Here are some other books on the team’s list: The New Cold War: How the Contest Between the U.S. and China Will Shape Our Century, obert Niblett, and The War Below: Lithium, Copper, and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives, by Ernest Scheyder.

Curated by Yadullah Hussain, Managing Editor, RBC Climate Action Institute.

Climate Crunch would not be possible without John Stackhouse, Myha Truong-Regan, Sarah Pendrith, Farhad Panahov, Lisa Ashton, Shaz Merwat, Vivan Sorab, Caprice Biasoni and Frances Dawson.

Have a comment, commendation, or umm, criticism? Write to me here (yadullahhussain@rbc.com)

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Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly reshaping the global economy, driven by Big Tech’s breakthrough apps such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Businesses are eyeing ways to transform their operations through AI, which has serious implications—transformative and disruptive—for the wider economy. At the heart of this AI-driven transformation are data centres, the crucial infrastructure powering applications, from simple queries to complex generative tasks.

Every AI prompt requires significant computing power. A single ChatGPT query consumes 10 times more energy than a standard Google search. More advanced AI operations such as generating text or images, exponentially spike power consumption. Canadian data centres’ rising energy demands make them a major driver of electricity demand growth. If all the data centre projects currently being reviewed by regulators proceed, they would account for 14% of Canada’s total power needs by 20301, similar to 12-15% by 2030 in the U.S.2

The development of these data centres, likely between 20 to 30, would result in $100 billion in capital expenditures related to the construction and build of accompanying IT infrastructure3. However, AI’s energy-intensive nature raises concerns about power availability, grid reliability and its implication on emissions.

The power behind ChatGPT: How data centres process search queries

 

Key Findings

  • Canadian regulators are reviewing data centre applications with an estimated combined capacity of 15 gigawatts—enough to power seven out of 10 homes nationwide.
  • AI is the primary driver of this surge, with data centres offering a $100 billion economic opportunity for the construction and build out of data centres and accompanying data infrastructure.
  • Canada’s clean energy resources offer a strategic advantage for AI-driven growth. However, natural gas remains a critical part of the mix due to its reliability. Nuclear power is also an option but with a considerably longer lead time.
  • Canada’s annual emissions could rise 3%, if natural gas powers six additional gigawatts of data centres. However, carbon capture and storage (CCS) could throttle the rise of emissions.
  • Local data centres strengthen Canada’s position in AI by securing data sovereignty and enhancing cybersecurity.
  • Streamlining AI governance across Canada and the U.S. is a key next step in securing North American leadership. A review of CUSMA in 2026 would likely see refinements to the digital trade chapter.
  • Targeted efforts to increase AI adoption among Canadian SMEs—which account for half of Canadian GDP—could help reverse Canada’s lagging productivity.

A new trading chip

Canada faces a strategic moment as it captures the AI opportunity. Beyond the economic incentives, local data centres are essential for ensuring data privacy, national security, and resilience against cyber threats.

We can leverage our prodigious hydro, natural gas and nuclear power to emerge as a low-cost data centre hub. We can also build on this advantage further by harnessing AI’s power to boost Canadian productivity, enhance our competitiveness, and deepen our digital talent pool.

The AI opportunity also has trade and geopolitical implications, especially as Canada needs ever more chips to bargain with a transactional U.S. administration-in-waiting. With Washington increasingly focused on China, data sovereignty could become a key focus over the next few years. This provides Canada plenty of opportunities—but also some risks.

We could be a valuable partner for the U.S. and create a digital North American fortress, securely warehousing critical data at low cost. But that would require a realignment on data sovereignty between the two countries, which would most likely occur at the next round of Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) in 2026.

A modernized digital trade chapter—Chapter 19—was a factor that drove Washington to seek a revised trade agreement during U.S. President Donald Trump’s first term. The next iteration of Chapter 19 could increase the focus on compatibility of North American data, both in terms of cross-border transfers and AI governance.

 

Powering up data centres

Substantial demand from “hyperscalers”—data centres with large compute capabilities—could strain Canada’s grid and drive up power bills, putting governments and regulators in a bind, as recently evidenced with the U.S. federal energy regulator’s refusal to allow Amazon Inc. to purchase more power from a Pennsylvania nuclear facility on the grounds it would raise customer rates and threaten grid reliability.

It also comes at a time many Canadian provinces are already facing sizeable power demands from population growth and electrified transport, as well as ambitions to decarbonize heavy industries. All told, Canada’s power demand was already set to double by 2050, potentially even triple4. And that was before AI became a compelling need for the global economy.

Canada has several energy sources it can draw on to power data centres, but each comes with its own challenges and considerations:

  • Wind and solar: growing sources of power but in the absence of storage, their intermittency makes them unsuitable for data centres that demand consistent baseload power.
  • Nuclear: The emerging energy of choice for Big Tech in the U.S. It’s an option in Ontario, too, but would require long lead times stretching out to a decade, if not more. Nuclear remains a viable long-term solution.
  • Hydro: Several provinces such as Quebec and British Columbia already rely heavily on the power source, and, like nuclear, would require a long time to boost capacity.
  • Natural gas: Alberta’s preferred option, and a key part of Ontario’s transition until 2040. But powering AI through natural gas comes with an emissions cost that provinces will need to weigh.

Provincial Imperatives: Honing regional approaches to AI

Provinces will ultimately drive Canada’s AI ambition.

Alberta, with ample natural gas and lower grid pressures, prefers data centres operate off-grid, minimizing the strain on public grids. The “bring your own power” (BYOP) model allows for faster deployment and supports local natural gas prices, driving economic benefits for the province. It is also aligned with the proposed Canadian Electricity Regulations, given the facilities would not be net exporters to the grid. However, BYOP is not necessarily a viable model for all Canadian jurisdictions.

Quebec, with its rigorous environmental standards and cap-and-trade system, prioritizes low-emission solutions. The province’s hydro power provides clean energy but its capacity to meaningfully expand hydro in the short term is limited. British Columbia faces similar constraints, with a preference for hydroelectric power and tight regulations on carbon-intensive energy sources.

Ontario’s more flexible energy policy allows for a mix of solutions. Its population density and industrial base create competing demands for grid capacity—from electric vehicle and battery supply chain to greenhouses. The province’s primary challenge will be to strike a balance between these competing needs.

 

Decisions about where and how to build data centres will involve a complex matrix of economic, environmental, and social factors. Our research shows that data centres rank higher in GDP impact compared to, say, manufacturing and transport, but contribute fewer jobs compared to those industries.

That’s where federal and provincial alignment will be critical to Canada’s AI strategy. Policymakers will need to create frameworks that allow provinces to develop bespoke policies that balance growth, sustainability and the demands of the new economy. This includes targeted support for AI adoption among SMEs and ensuring that data centres contribute to productivity gains across sectors. For example, as part of a greater commitment to invest $25 billion in Canadian data centres, Amazon Web Services (AWS) apportioned dedicated compute capacity to the University of Alberta in 2023, sourced from a recently completed $4-billion cloud computing data centre in Calgary.

Power Supply: Capturing the ‘hyperscaler’ opportunity

Data centres require vast amounts of electricity, ranging from 200 megawatts to 500 megawatts. Canada’s low-cost, clean energy gives it a significant advantage. Hydroelectric and nuclear power in cities like Montreal, Vancouver, and Toronto offers some of the cheapest and cleanest electricity in North America. Comparatively, U.S. industrial power prices in key data centre states such as Arizona, Illinois, and Texas are on average 30-40% more expensive, and that excludes their warm climates adding an extra 20-40% power for cooling purposes.

Global hyperscalers are seizing on the Canadian opportunity. We estimate various provinces are reviewing applications for 15 GW of new data centre capacity—a 20-fold increase from current levels5 and enough to power 70% of Canadian households today. In addition, the “expressed interest” in data centres is likely far greater. Alberta alone is being pitched proposals for 50 projects with a combined capacity of 20 GW6.

The mass electrification of the economy is already expected to place unprecedented demand on Canada’s grids. Canada’s power generation is expected to reach 750 GWh7 over the next ten years, compared to an estimated demand of 875 GWh8, implying a shortfall of about 15%. It underscores the need for careful resource management.

 

Emissions: Leveraging carbon capture

AI’s energy footprint raises concerns about Canada’s climate goals. With provinces being asked to provide power for important industries such as heavy industry, liquefied natural gas electrification and greenhouses, most provinces will have to determine where data centres fit with their economic priority and emissions-cutting ambitions.

Data centres depend on consistent baseload power, which wind and solar cannot reliably provide due to their intermittent nature. New renewable projects are also facing opposition in certain jurisdictions. Natural gas, with its reliability as baseload power and quick scalability, can fill the gap.

However, using gas for data centres raises emissions concerns. If natural gas powers six additional gigawatts of data centres, annual emissions could rise by 16 million tonnes of CO2e—a 3% increase9 in Canada’s total emissions.

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) could throttle the rise of emissions. In Alberta, companies are already in discussions to incorporate carbon capture into gas-fired power plants for data centres. That would alleviate environmental concerns, leverage existing energy infrastructure and drive further investments in natural gas production and the development of CCS.

Big Tech companies, that are investing heavily in nuclear power in the U.S. to feed their AI operations, could replicate that playbook with abated natural gas in Canada.

However, the high costs and technical complexities of CCS mean it’s not an all-of-Canada solution. While the CCS technology is readily transferable, only Alberta and Saskatchewan have the required geology and infrastructure in Canada to store carbon.

 

Economy: Unlocking a $100-billion opportunity

The digital economy is expanding rapidly, from cloud computing to AI applications, and transforming every aspect of the economy.

Current estimates suggest the digital economy accounts for 6.3% of Canada’s GDP, but broader estimates place it at 15%—and it’s growing 2.5 times faster than conventional economic sectors10. Data centres are critical to this digital ecosystem, hosting and processing the vast volumes of data generated by AI and other advanced technologies. Development of the proposed data centres alone could spark a $100-billion construction and IT infrastructure boom, in addition to its positive impact on the wider economy.

But there’s an even greater prize for Canadian businesses: an AI ecosystem that helps them gain a competitive edge in areas as diverse as healthcare, autos, manufacturing and clean-tech. That could be in the form of AI revolutionizing biotech research, accurately detecting weather patterns, or improving navigation in autonomous vehicles.

Canada’s AI adoption, however, lags its peers. Only 35% of Canadian firms use AI, compared to 72% in the U.S.11 The discrepancy is partially due to the high percentage of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Canada, which employ 65% of the private workforce12. SMEs often lack the capital and talent to invest in cutting-edge technology. Addressing this gap is essential to boosting Canadian productivity, which has been in decline for more than 30 years13. With its R&D spending at 1.7% of GDP14—less than half of U.S. levels—Canada faces an urgent need to increase investment in AI and technological innovation.

The federal government has taken steps to close the productivity gap, launching initiatives such as the $2-billion AI Compute Access Fund to boost Canadian businesses’ technological capabilities. The fund aims to deliver computational power needed to drive innovation in both large companies and SMEs.

Bridging the AI adoption gap is critical not only for immediate economic gains, but also for positioning Canada as a global leader in the technology. This includes deepening the country’s AI-ready workforce, with training programs and partnerships with academic institutions key to fostering a new generation of AI professionals.

Data Security: Safeguarding sovereignty and privacy

Data sovereignty is also crucial. Canada’s strict data privacy laws mandate that sensitive information remains within its borders, ensuring compliance and protecting citizens’ privacy. As digital data grows, so do cyber risks. IBM reports 27,000 data breaches in Canada annually, with potential economic losses in the billions.

But keeping data within borders has two inherent tradeoffs: on power and trade. Data centres’ impact on the grid, to date, has been marginal given that in Canada they are used largely for hosting purposes. The proliferation of AI and resulting power draw from hyperscalers, however, accentuates this tradeoff. Most likely, segments of demand will still likely require to be hosted locally, i.e., for economically sensitive areas such as government, healthcare, banking and insurance, and research and development where latency can impact effectiveness.
For other pockets of demand, such as e-commerce, an integrated North American data corridor, as envisioned by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, could result in comparative advantages for less constrained jurisdictions to power North America’s AI economy. But that would require greater collaboration between Canada and the United States.

Data centres can also help Canada build on its AI expertise. The country has been a leader in AI research since the 1980s, thanks to renowned academics including Geoffrey Hinton and Yoshua Bengio. Yet, the country’s lack of domestic AI infrastructure threatens its leadership. To remain competitive, Canada must likely prioritize dedicated data resources for public sectors such as healthcare, education, and defence. These resources are essential for fostering innovation and maintaining Canada’s technological edge.

Conclusion

There’s an opportunity for Canada to build on its AI leadership beyond economic considerations and productivity. An AI ecosystem can infuse the wider economy with tools that crunch big data and algorithms to boost domestic companies’ competitiveness in areas as diverse as healthcare, clean-tech, manufacturing and services and transportation and logistics.

A flexible approach, combined with federal collaboration, would ensure Canada’s AI infrastructure powers the digital economy in a way that aligns with the country’s broader sustainability, security, and economic goals.

Contributors:

Shaz Merwat, Energy Policy Lead, RBC Climate Action Institute

Yadullah Hussain, Managing Editor, RBC Climate Action Institute

Caprice Biasoni, Graphic Design Specialist

Shiplu Talukder, Digital Publishing Specialist

  1. The data centre power estimate is based on the current set of data centre projects believed to be in application with provincial electricity regulators. Total estimated power consumption for Canada by 2030 is taken from the Canada Electricity Advisory Council.
  2. As estimated by S&P Global, BCG and McKinsey.
  3. Estimate is based on total data centre build costs, including land costs, construction costs, and accompanying data processing and networking, and power and cooling expenses.
  4. Electricity Advisory Council of Canada
  5. S&P Global Market Intelligence
  6. Calgary Herald
  7. S&P Global
  8. Electricity Advisory Council of Canada
  9. Carbon emission estimate of 16 million tonnes of CO2e is based on an assumption of 360 kg/MWh at 6 GW of capacity
  10. Statistics Canada
  11. KPMG
  12. Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada
  13. Statistics Canada
  14. Statistics Canada

Related Reading

GenAI: Is Canada ready?

Think Small: How Canada can make small modular nuclear reactors a priority

Canada’s Energy Transformation: An Outlook of Supply and Demand In the 2030s

For more, go to rbc.com/climate.

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The RBC Climate Action Institute co-hosted a special session today in Ottawa with the British High Commission, to share views with the diplomatic corps on where we see global climate policy heading and how Canada is positioned for the rest of the 2020s. Here’s some of what I discussed in a conversation moderated by Deputy High Commissioner David Prodger:

  1. Climate policy needs to be reframed (and maybe reshaped) to deliver direct cost-of-living benefits. Think energy efficiency.
  2. “Security” may be Word of the Year in 2025. Can climate policy add to our need for security of exports? We may be able to better deploy our industrial carbon pricing systems, run by the provinces, to position Canadian products as cleaner than others, especially in the U.S. and European markers.
  3. Expect more dual-purpose alliances for energy security and climate action. A G7 approach to nuclear energy cooperation, for instance, could add to Canada’s role as host in 2025.
  4. Private capital will continue to move ahead of public policy. As we will show in our upcoming Climate Action 2025 report, climate capital is still growing — not as much as it needs to, but the trajectory is up.
  5.  Innovation and technology will be key. Even in tight budget times, we’ll need to invest ambitiously in research and development.
  6. International financial institutes like the World Bank will need to take on more of the climate finance load for developing countries. Will China step up to help? And how will the U.S. react?
  7.  Developing nations will continue to raise pressure around resilience and adaptation. More money for disaster-proofing may be a good thing, unless it comes at the cost of prevention.
  8. As the world’s biggest emitters — the U.S. and China — go their own ways, other countries will need to build bridges between North and South, East and West, rich and poor, big and small. Is that still a role for Canada?

Great comments from a range of countries, with a general concern that the headwinds for climate action are growing, and more international cooperation will be needed, even in a more divided world.

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Issue #05

➔ Team Trump’s pet climate peeves and preferences
➔ Meet the most critical metal of them all
➔ COP29: Baku into a corner

Which is the most critical mineral of all for decarbonization? Lithium, it turns out. The International Renewable Energy Agency and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs came to that conclusion after crunching data to account for future demand, resource availability, recycling and substitute potential. Cobalt is the second most critical. The good news for Canada: both are found in copious amounts with new mines proposed.

How can Indigenous Nations tap a $45-billion equity gap? A new CAI report recommends pathways to help build Indigenous capital muscle. Financial and non-financial partnerships in major project developments can emerge as made-in-Canada model for inclusive economic growth, writes Varun Srivatsan, director of policy and strategic engagement, in the report. It’s starting to happen: the Federal government, along with the B.C. and Manitoba governments, announced loan guarantee programs in 2024, to spur Indigenous participation in several energy projects. Read our report here.

Cooking oil may be powering your next Air Canada flight. The airline has sourced 78 million litres of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), made of waste oil grease from cooking oil tallow and other feedstocks. Provider Neste calls the Singapore-produced vintage “unblended neat.” Combined with conventional jet fuel, the concoction can reduce GHG emissions by up to 80% over the fuel’s lifecycle. Still, SAF accounts for a mere 0.54% of the jet fuel market—although global production has tripled in a year.

Canada needs to install a 100 EV charges…a day. Currently, there is “no obvious pathway” to a Canadian charging infrastructure that can help hit the federal goal of 100% zero-emission vehicle sales goal by 2035, according to The Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association. Canada needs 446,800 public charging ports by 2035 to support the ZEV sales mandate—we are currently at 30,000. CVMA’s concerns carry tremendous weight as the association represents Ford, General Motors and Stellantis—companies that are betting their future on EVs dominating North American roads in the not-so distant future.

Climate Action Award: To Trottier Family Foundation, Peter Gilgan Foundation, Ronald S. Roadburg Foundation, Chisholm Thomson Family Foundation, David Keith and Kirsten Anderson, Sitka Foundation, Vohra Miller Foundation and Allan Shiff for donating $405 million to climate-related initiatives.

Climate Fail Award: To the Valencia regional government, which failed to send an emergency alert to mobile phones until after 8pm on the first day of catastrophic floods in Spain— nearly 13 hours after the state weather agency warned of “very intense” rain.

Trump’s energy czars, nominees and hopefuls

Energy markets are on edge as U.S. president-elect Donald Trump rolls out his choices for key posts that energy markets will either love or hate. Many of these nominees are subject to confirmation, but they offer early signals on the president’s intentions.

One early insight: many of these candidates’ constituencies and home states have benefitted immensely from the Inflation Reduction Act, which Trump has labelled the “green new scam.” Also, the U.S. oil and gas production has grown uninterrupted regardless of who’s been in the White House (see chart). For Canada, the Trump energy squad’s focus on critical minerals, oil and gas and nuclear is good news, although there seems less clarity on EV policies.

Doug Burgum, interior secretary and energy czar
Loves: “Data-driven” approach to managing. The former CEO of a software company is governor of oil and agro state North Dakota. Pushed for Net Zero emission goals for his state by 2030 primarily through carbon capture technology.

Hates: Not much. Neutral on renewables and eager to extract critical minerals.

Burgum would lead a new National Energy Council encompassing agencies and departments involved in “ALL forms of American Energy,” and scrap “totally unnecessary” regulations. Two big tasks: channeling IRA incentives and rebates, and delivering Trump’s US$2 per gallon pledge.

The interior secretary requires Senate confirmation, but not the czar role.

Chris Wright, energy secretary (nominee)
Loves: Fracking. The MIT graduate helped advance the U.S. shale gas revolution by developing a new fracking method. Once drank frack fluid on camera.
Hates: The phrase “climate crisis;” also thinks Net Zero emission pledges are “silly.”

Wright is also part of the Burgum-led National Energy Council.

John Thune, Senate majority leader (elected)
Loves: Wind power and biofuels. Wind energy powers 55% of electricity of his home state of South Dakota. He is also bullish on nuclear.
Hates: Joe Biden’s pause on liquefied natural gas approval, calling it a move to “satisfy climate activists on TikTok.”

Thune’s support for wind power potentially has him at odds with Trump who has promised to end offshore wind projects on Day 1.

Kristi Noem, U.S. Department of Homeland Security

Loves: Wind and hydropower. The South Dakota governor believes her state is the ideal place to develop next-gen nuclear technologies.
Hates: Her pet dog. Noem was also one of five governors who declined to accept the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) planning grants that Washington offered every state to address climate pollution. Also refused to distribute rebates on energy-efficient home appliances.

Neom is a nominee for an entity that oversees the Federal Emergency Management Agency at a time of frequent weather disruptions. FEMA is the country’s biggest flood insurer.

Mike Waltz, National Security Advisor
Loves: American energy dominance. Hawkish on Iran and Russia that could likely lead to more stringent energy sanctions on both countries. He helped craft the Stop Harboring Iranian Petroleum (SHIP) Act legislation, which may be revived in the new administration.
Hates: Pause in LNG approvals by the Biden administration.

The national security adviser does not require Senate confirmation.

Marco Rubio, Secretary of State
Loves: Critical minerals supply chains. Introduced a bipartisan bill in June to “develop a strategy…to ensure that the U.S., its allies and global partners can count on a diverse and secure end-to-end supply of critical minerals.”

Hates: China, Iran and Russia—which could have implications for both renewable and oil markets.

Elon Musk, co-lead, Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)
Loves: Tesla EVs. And U.S. federal government loans, tax breaks and other EV policies that have spurred Tesla’s rise.

Hates: Big governments and regulators that have regularly tangled with Musk over Tesla’s safety issues. Now he could gut those agencies.

Vivek Ramaswamy, co-lead, Department of Energy Efficiency

Loves: Fossil fuels. Has financial interest in an asset management fund that manages an energy ETF—DRL—that tracks major oil and gas companies.

Hates: President Biden’s EV subsidies, which he says, makes America more dependent on China. Possible sticking point with co-DOGE lead?

Beyond The Cop29 Doom Loop

COP29 has not exactly been climate diplomats’ shining moment. But it wasn’t all doomscrolling. Here are some of CAI head John Stackhouse and the team’s top takeaways from the Baku event so far.

#1 Rejoice Article 6.4
In a landmark decision on the first day of the global climate talks, COP29 officially adopted the new operational standards for a mechanism of the Paris Agreement under Article 6, setting the stage for a global carbon market.

The adoption of article 6.4 sets the stage for operationalizing Article 6, which has faced years of deadlock. It establishes a centralized carbon market that allows countries to trade emission credits, or A6.4ERs, to meet their Paris Agreement commitments.

#2 Show me the money
To many UN skeptics, COP29 might as well be on Mars, because the agenda seems otherworldly. While establishing rules for a global carbon market is a start, most of the oxygen is going to the Big Ask, which in UN-speak is called — brace for it — the New Collective Quantified Goal, or NCQG. The goal: $1 trillion a year. We may see Elon on Mars first. A more likely commitment will be $300 billion.

Remember, the same process committed to $100 billion a year more than a decade ago, and didn’t get to that 2020 goal until 2022. We’ll see if NCQG is different.

#3 Deal or no deal
One of the biggest changes in climate action over the past decade has been a surge of charitable funds looking to invest in sustainable projects. The poster child may be Jeff Bezos’s $10-billion Earth Fund, whose CEO, Andrew Steer, is in Baku to remind the climate crowd that traditional financial players aren’t leveraging philanthropic money nearly enough. He’s been pushing the idea of “a deal team for the planet” — some kind of version of the World Bank that could pull together government-backed funding, private sector capital and philanthropic funds for the big, non-market projects to cut emissions.

#4 Upside down world
The U.S. president-elect Donald Trump is contemplating an exit from the climate talks, and France—the architect of the Paris Agreement—withdrew its top negotiator at Cop 29. But Russia, the world’s fourth-biggest emitter, thinks climate talks should not be “interrupted despite political differences,” its top diplomat said. China also wants constructive dialogue on climate change with the U.S. under the Trump administration. An upside down world, indeed.

Curated by Yadullah Hussain, Managing Editor, RBC Climate Action Institute.

Climate Crunch would not be possible without John Stackhouse, Myha Truong-Regan, Sarah Pendrith, Farhad Panahov, Lisa Ashton, Shaz Merwat, Vivan Sorab, Caprice Biasoni and Frances Dawson.

Have a comment, commendation, or umm, criticism? Write to me here (yadullahhussain@rbc.com)

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Issue #04

➔ The scrap over the cap
➔ What the Trump climate show means for Canada
➔ Pathways charts a CCS path
➔ COP 29’s calendar conflict

Hot takes

➔ Alberta’s major carbon capture project revs up. Pathways Alliance’s request for proposals from pipe manufacturers and talks with Ottawa on funding, signal progress on the long-awaited project. Proposed by six major oilsands companies, the $16.5 billion CCS project involves transporting carbon from 20 oilsands facilities by pipeline to a storage terminal in Alberta’s Cold Lake area, reducing emissions by 22 megatonnes a year, or around 10% of sector emissions. It could be a game-changer—a tired cliché, we admit—but a deserving label given the considerable scale of collaboration and ambition.

➔ There’s a gaggle of climate reports out there—it must be COP season. The world needs to cough up around US$9 trillion more annually on climate financing to meet its Paris Agreement targets, notes a 100-page UN Emission Gap Report 2024, in what seems to be an avalanche of analysis pre-COP in Baku, Azerbaijan. The IEA also recently dropped Tome No. 1 (the 398-page World Energy Outlook) and Tome No. 2 (the 573-page Energy Technology Perspectives 2024)—with an Energy Efficiency 2024 report planned for today—IEA reports are considered benchmarks and widely referenced. A separate UN report on national climate plans and a Greenhouse Bulletin is also prime reading material for delegates on their long Toronto/Calgary flights to Baku.

➔ COP16 ended in disarray. Delegates at the global event on bio-diversity in Cali, Colombia, dithered over nature funding and targets for this decade. Many developing nations’ delegates didn’t have the funds—symptomatic of the problem—to change flights and left the summit without a deal. There were some breakthroughs though, including a global levy on products using genetic data from nature, and a “watershed” decision to include Indigenous communities’ voice in future decisions on nature conservation.

The Simpsons—as it often does—predicted it. Billionaires are eyeing ways to block the sun with Bill Gates and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman among major backers. Mr Burns’ tried something similar in the famously prescient animated series. Solar radiation management aims to cool the planet by intentionally reflecting increasing amounts of incoming sunlight back to space. Insurers have warned of unintended climate changes that could trigger international conflicts. It also does little to reduce greenhouse emissions. Last year, the UN said deploying the technology was “unwise.” Would it stop the billionaires?

Bi-Weekly Climate Action Award: To researchers at Zhengzhou University in China and the University of South Australia for developing  a fabric that counters heatwaves. Unlike conventional fabrics that retain heat, the textiles comprise three layers engineered to optimize cooling.

Bi-Weekly Climate Fail Ward: To the Kremlin for withholding vital Arctic climate change data from NATO. Russia is also pursuing a widescale disinformation campaign against decarbonization, the Western military alliance has warned.

Unpacking Trump 2.0’s Climate Playbook

Donald Trump has stormed back into the White House, raising critical questions around U.S. climate policy especially the Inflation Reduction Act, President Joe Biden’s signature climate law, and the Paris deal. While a second Trump innings may not necessarily wreck global climate policy—it could certainly look different in a few years’ time.

What happens to IRA now?: Trump has threatened to rescind all unspent funds from the Inflation Reduction Act, but it may be tricky as many Republican states and districts benefit bigly from the law (see table). Some analysts argue the rollout is too advanced to be axed, but Trump can certainly insist on a reset: a repackaged and rebranded policy, with some technologies getting more love than others. (For example, Trump considers wind energy “disgusting,” which could knock the wind out of that sector). Renewable stocks’ swoon after Trump’s win suggests low-carbon energy investors are anxious.

Life after Paris: Trump pulled the U.S. out of the global climate deal in his first term—he could do so again. UN chief Antonio Guterres thinks a second U.S. exit could “cripple” the Paris climate agreement. But there may be life beyond Paris. In Trump’s universe, allies will have to learn to jump headlong into new policy wormholes. Perhaps it could mean an America-led energy and climate club of allies that excludes China. It could also lead to a reset on many fronts in the form of new climate targets for 2030 and 2050 and policies that weigh energy security and affordability as equally as emissions—policies that are more palatable to businesses and consumers. Bespoke climate solutions rather than the grand one-size-fits-all policies that many countries are reluctant to pursue.

“Fun” with CUSMA: The next renegotiation phase with Canada’s CUSMA (ex-NAFTA) members U.S. and Mexico in 2026 might be more intense under a Trump administration, which is seeking more protections for the American auto industry. “Oh, I’m going to have a lot of fun,” Trump noted, ominously. But it may not be a bad omen for Canada, especially with an ace up its sleeve: critical minerals. Metals were not a major issue in the last CUSMA negotiations, but Canada could leverage them now. Trump’s focus on dissociating from China’s energy supply chain helps Ottawa make the case for a strong Canadian auto supply-chain (from nickel to cobalt, batteries and car assembly) across the 401 belt all the way to Michigan. That would ring-fence us from Trump’s plans to put tariffs on any product imported to the U.S.

What would Elon Musk do?: The billionaire Trump backer (and possibly his future government efficiency czar), is deeply invested in the North American auto market as the head of Tesla. While the president-elect rails against China’s manufacturing sector, Musk relies heavily on the country’s production base. It could lead to interesting conflicts and crosswinds, and perhaps opportunities for the Canadian auto supply chain to become a viable alternative. Ambitious, yes, but it’s no time to be a wilting violet.

Fuelling emissions: Trump’s call on U.S. oil and gas producers to “drill, baby, drill,” would send U.S. emissions higher, especially in an era of rapid deregulation. He would also likely insist that Canada, America’s largest source for imported oil, keep its oil spigots open to ensure affordability. That could complicate Ottawa’s recently proposed oil and gas emissions cap draft (see next item below). Whoever gets to negotiates trade, climate and energy policies with the new Trump administration will need to find a new balance between Canada’s ambitions and needs and a new American reality.

The scrap over the cap

The federal government’s draft regulations for the oil and gas greenhouse gas pollution cap was met with predictable bemusement by Alberta. The draft rules, possibly the most contentious Liberal climate policy, resembles its proposed framework in December 2023 of a cap and trade system.

  • Reining in emissions. The emission cap will be set in 2029, for compliance beginning in 2030, with allowances provided freely and set at 27% below reported 2026 emissions. Allowances (i.e. physical emissions) must represent a minimum of 80% of total emissions, with emissions credits and payments into a decarbonization fund providing the remaining flexibility.
  • Here’s how the math works. Starting in 2030, emissions will need to be 27% lower than 2026 level. Here’s the rub: where will emissions be in 2026? Based on energy policy lead Shaz Merwat’s math, Ottawa is modelling a 22% decline in emissions over the next two years—that seems (a little) ambitious. If one assumes oil and gas upstream emissions remain flat over the next two years, the 2030 cap equates to emissions being down 15% relative to the Paris baseline (2005), or conceivably up 7% after incorporating compliance flexibility. Cue the outrage from environmentalists.
  • Don’t forget methane. It’s expected to represent at least half of the emissions decline. Canadian historical oil and gas emissions were revised upwards by 12% this year, partly due to underestimating the greenhouse gas warming potential of methane. Canada has already planned methane regulations to reduce methane emissions 75% from 2012 levels by 2030. For a hard-to-abate sector, methane is not the hardest problem to overcome.Time to reset carbon markets? The move adds another layer of complexity to Canada’s patchwork of carbon markets. As we highlighted in a recent report, provincial fragmentation undermines carbon market’s potential. Businesses repeatedly cite regulatory uncertainty and lack of harmonization as impediments to moving forward with investment decisions.
  • Where do we go from here? Formal consultations start now, with a final proposal expected in spring. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says she is considering “every legal option” to fight the cap. It’s also worth asking whether the Liberals will be in power till October 2025 to push through these policies, especially as a Conservative party rising in the polls is pledging to “scrap the cap.”

COP29: CALENDAR CONFLICTS

Quite a few executives have struck Baku, Azerbiajan—host of the UN climate-change conference No. 29—off their calendar, partly due to U.S. elections. It didn’t help that New York Climate Week dazzled this year, negating the need for many to travel 9,000 kilometres to bump into the same folks a month later. Inexplicably, COP also partly coincides with the G20 leaders’ summit taking place Nov. 18 and 19 at the other end of the globe: Rio de Janeiro. Talk about a climate calendar conflict.

Still, for those lucky enough to attend Azerbaijan and sample local delicacies such as kabab, plov and dolma (hat-tip: Baku-born Farhad Panahov), or steal a few hours to visit the Old City, here’s what else is on the table:

COP Lite. Joe Biden and other heavyweights are expected to skip the event. But that means more room for NGOs and delegates from developing countries.

Baku is Part II of a troika of summits: COP28 host UAE teamed up with Azerbaijan and COP30 host Brazil—the COP Presidencies Troika—to hammer out a “Roadmap to Mission 1.5°C.” COP28 was about Global Stocktaking (i.e. what’s needed), COP29 is about financing, and Brazil will oversee a new round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs), or each country’s climate plans.

Waiting for NDCs: That’s another reason Baku might be a subdued affair as most countries only reveal their updated NDC by next February. UN wants nations to be ambitious, but since the last NDCs were rolled out in 2020/21 there has been a change of personnel at the top in several countries, and decidedly less consumer and business appetite for ambitious climate policies.

Baku’s big moment: Consensus on financing alone could be Baku’s big win. Cash-strapped EU wants China to foot some of the world’s climate bill, which could come to $1 trillion a year. Expanding the donor base of countries is a “prerequisite” for an ambitious new post-2025 New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), to replace the US$100-billion annual climate commitment. Expect many fights on who foots the bill.

Gas-lighting: COP28 famously signed-off by noting it was the “beginning of the end” of fossil fuels. Gas powerhouse Azerbaijan seems less ambitious on that front. Expect Europe to square off against oil producing countries—again.

Racking up green storage:  COP28 was methane and nuclear’s moment. Azerbaijan is proposing countries commit to a new pledge for 1,500 gigawatt of energy storage capacity by 2030. Other proposals include reducing tourism sector emissions, and creating a global market for clean hydrogen.

The Institute In Action

➔ Ag policy lead Lisa Ashton hosted a panel on Nature Based Solution in Agricultural Landscapes at the Royal Agricultural Winter Fair on Nov 1. Read the three key takeaways from the discussion here.

➔ On Nov. 4, we made our second stop on our Food for Thought tour in Montreal, where Institute head John Stackhouse heard from innovators on their playbook to cut costs and reduce emissions.

What’s on the team’s reading wish list: Revenge of the Tipping Point (Malcolm Gladwell), Climate Capitalism (Akshat Rathi), Not The End of the World (Hannah Ritchie), Fire Weather (John Vaillant), Vampire State: The Rise and Fall of the Chinese Economy (Ian Williams). Read John’s book blog here.

ICYMI

➔ Planet-heating pollutants in atmosphere hit record levels in 2023

➔ Move over millennials, climate activism is no longer a young person’s game

➔ Podcast: Meet the First Nation building an LNG project in B.C.

➔ How vintage Nike Airs exposed a flaw in a US$700-million carbon market

➔ Rebuild or retreat? Homeowners face tough decisions after repeat flooding 

Catch up on our latest work:

➔ Biotech boom: Canada’s life sciences revolution (podcast)

➔ AIOC: A bridge builder helping unlock Indigenous potential

➔ Immigration changes cloud Ontario’s economic outlook

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Issue #03

➔ Lessons for Canada in the nuclear restart
➔ A Trump victory could shake up energy markets
➔ Climate change hits Halloween symbol
➔ Our newsletter sender handle will change to Climate Crunch from Nov.7 edition. Save our address to your contacts to avoid spam filters

Hot takes

➔ What’s new in the IEA’s latest annual report? A dedicated chapter on “Security, affordability and sustainability.” That wasn’t the case in the 2023 World Energy Outlook, and it’s about time. We maybe on the cusp of the “Age of Electricity,” the IEA suggests, but maintaining global temperature’s rise to 1.5C degrees–as set out in the Paris agreement–could easily swerve wildly to a 2.4C world if we can’t secure clean energy critical minerals and make it affordable for consumers. The good news: the surplus of energy—from LNG to solar photovoltaic—, means we could soon be in an energy buyer’s market, the IEA projects. The rise of renewables also means global carbon dioxide emissions are “set to peak soon,” the agency forecasts.

➔ Canadians can save money and enjoy a low-carbon lifestyle. That’s according to a new Clean Energy Canada report that suggests installing heat pumps and buying electric vehicles can do both (as much as $777 in monthly savings for a detached house in B.C.). But that saving hack faces a grim outlook: the end of the federal Greener Home Grants and lack of affordable EVs could make it costlier to go green very soon.

➔ A Trump victory could upend energy markets. Polls suggest the 45th U.S. president has an even chance to win the White House on Nov. 5. That would shake up geopolitics, with Iran potentially emerging as a principal target of U.S. sanctions, says RBC Capital Markets’ Helima Croft . Curbing Iran’s oil production would shore up global oil prices and invoke animal spirits among North American producers, but with consequences for Canada and the U.S.’s modest efforts to curb emissions

➔ Canada’s crumbling road and water systems face a $350B bill. Governments installed drinking, wastewater and stormwater pipes at the fastest rate on record from 2020-2022, but the bill to replace “poor” or “very poor infrastructure” has risen to $357-billion—$100-billion more than previous estimates. It’s an urgent problem with recent episodes in Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto highlighting its frequency and scale—with huge economic impacts. The insurance industry says property claims, driven by floods, now account for 36.8% of all claims.

➔ Before COP29, there’s COP16. In Cali, Columbia. It’s the first biennial UN summit on diversity since the landmark Global Diversity Framework in Montreal in 2022. Key agenda item includes a framework to address “biopiracy,” that would ensure countries are paid for, say, digital fingerprints of rare plant species that biotech companies would use to make drugs. Are you attending COP16? Send us your post-event hot take here.

➔ A series of unfortunate events hit pumpkin production. Tam Andersen—who runs Prairie Gardens in Alberta—says she lost crop early this season to unusually cold weather in June, following on from a drought that hit output last year. “It’s a response to climate change—yet again. We are calling this season the Lemony Snicket season,” she said in a phone call from her 35-acre farm in Sturgeon County. Like other farmers, she is adapting to the changing weather: next season she will plant pumpkins on higher ground to protect them from an avalanche of melting frost.

➔ Bi-Weekly Climate Action Award: To Lennard de Kler who researches wartime greenhouse gas emissions, and will lead a panel discussion at the COP29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November.

➔ Bi-Weekly Climate Fail Award: A “bonkers” British government proposal to burn imported wood, potentially from countries including North Korea and Afghanistan, to meet Net Zero goals.

The nuclear race is on

If we are nearing the Age of Electricity, as the IEA says, perhaps nuclear is already basking in its Renaissance period, driven by Big Tech. Amazon followed up its 960-megawatt contract with Talen Energy in March, with a US$500-million, 5,000MW deal with X-energy to bankroll a new generation of SMRs. Google has unveiled similar plans, while a Microsoft deal is dusting off the mothballed Three Mile Island nuclear plant, and Nvidia is eyeing Japan’s nuclear power—all to meet their insatiable artificial intelligence and datacentre demand.

While nuclear was given the green light from policymakers at COP28 in Dubai, admittedly the sector had still been waiting to “take off” – until now. The string of recent announcements has nuclear stocks flying, and meaningfully outperforming the S&P 500 on the year.

Shaz Merwat, energy policy lead, points to two key implications for Canada:

➔ Nuclear is in Canada’s wheelhouse , as we know a thing or two—or ten—about the tech. Nuclear is becoming a key provincial plank, most notably within Ontario’s plan to meet a 75% surge in demand by 2050 (to support AI demand and others). There is also room to export our expertise to those warming up to nuclear – Ontario Power Generation’s SMRs are a case in point. The U.S. is already moving swiftly in hawking its SMR tech to Asian countries.

➔ Second, it showcases the need for offtake agreements to drive deployment of new decarbonization technologies. Can Canada replicate this on the carbon capture front? The U.S. IRA provided a robust offtake mechanism with a guaranteed US$85/ton tax credit. Canada’s approach to derisk capital expenditures (investment tax credits) is economically sound, but has struggled to provide carbon price (revenue) certainty to date.

Carbon Markets For The Climate Era

Nine Canadian industries, including oil and gas, petroleum refineries, iron and steel, cement and aluminum, are vulnerable to carbon competitiveness and leakage risks, according to a new report by the newly-launched Commission on Carbon Competitiveness.

Aaron Cosbey, Chair of the Commission and one of the authors, says industrial carbon pricing (also known as large emitter trading systems, or LETS) remains the best option in the medium term.

➔ “But we found some sectors at much higher risk than others (iron & steel, basic chemicals, nitrogenous fertilizers, pulp & paper, with honorable mention to cement),” Cosbey said in an email. “In those sectors there should be more generous use of performance benchmark standards within LETS, keeping the average cost of carbon very low.”

➔ Keeping credit markets in balance will be hard as firms decarbonize, so Canada needs to start exploring options for further protection for the long term.

➔ One option? A comprehensive border carbon adjustment. But it’s potentially trade-illegal, messes with incentives in the domestic carbon market, and would kick a hornet’s nest south of the border.

➔ Another option is product-level GHG intensity standard—as a condition of sale on the domestic market (also applicable to imports).

➔ Both options need U.S. co-operation and complex instrument design. Canada needs to start working on them now, the Commission recommends. Read the full report here.

➔ Canada needs to support both legacy industries and new high-growth potential sectors to ensure long-term competitiveness, the report recommends. “Demand-vulnerable sectors may need capital for decarbonization and/or to invest in new opportunities. And high-growth sectors will have a critical need for funds to establish and grow their operations to reach commercial scale.” It must all happen in concert—and fast.

The Institute in action

➔ At Energy Disruptors on Oct. 2, John Stackhouse and Chana Martineau, AIOC CEO, discussed economic reconciliation. Read the highlights of their conversation here.

➔ On Oct. 16, Myha Truong-Regan was at Canada’s Productivity Summit in Calgary, discussing how energy transition can boost Canada’s economic growth and productivity.

➔ On World Food Day, Oct. 16, Lisa Ashton attended the Arrell Food Summit to hear stories and insights on food innovation.

➔ Lisa will also be hosting a panel on Nature Based Solution in Agricultural Landscapes at the Royal Agricultural Winter Fair on Nov. 1.

➔ What’s on the team’s reading and listening wish list: World Without End (by Jean-Marc Jancovici and Christophe Blain), The Burning Earth (by Sunil Amrith), Gambling Man—Mayoshi Son (by Lionel Barber).

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At Energy Disruptors United in Calgary, I sat down with Chana Martineau, CEO of Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation (AIOC), to discuss economic reconciliation. Chana is uniquely qualified to help unlock economic opportunity for Indigenous communities and her background as a woman of First Nations heritage with 30 years of experience in banking and consulting has made her a bridge builder between private enterprise and Indigenous communities. Her cross-functional team of capital markets professionals, Indigenous relations specialists, and engagement professionals enables the AIOC to be a role model for strong governance and professional management. Chana has some advice for companies that want to build ties with Indigenous communities:

  1. Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation is a breakthrough organization that’s a model for the rest of the country, demonstrating the power of mobilizing capital through Indigenous communities for opportunities. Can you tell us the story of AIOC?

    2. In 2019, the Alberta government fulfilled a campaign promise to bring to life an organization that would facilitate investment and participation by Indigenous groups in commercially viable projects – groups who had previously been held back from participating in the economy due to restrictions in the Indian Act. AIOC was set up to remove the barriers – to provide that capital that would allow full participation in the economy, while creating a replicable model that could be accessed for future projects to come. We’re coming up on 5 years next month and are seeing so much come through the pipeline we can’t keep up sometimes. It’s an exciting time for us and demonstrates the critical need for this program.

  2. It’s amazing to think that you’re just coming up to your fifth anniversary because you’ve got such an impressive track record already. And several other provinces are modelling what you’ve built. What advice do you have for them?

    3. I am impressed with the Alberta Government’s entrepreneurial spirit and their passion. They came to us and said, “What do you need to make this happen?” Our governance model is incredibly important. Our board consists of five First Nations members, two Metis members and two allies. It’ a mix of people that really understand Indigenous business and capital markets. You need the right skills at the table to protect the provincial loan guarantee and to understand the intersection of the Indigenous Nations and groups’ interests. We talk a lot about Canada’s productivity crisis. Well, it doesn’t make any sense for each jurisdiction to have a different program that doesn’t work together. When we look at big infrastructure projects that are multi-jurisdictional, we want to make sure the different programs can work together. We have been an open book in terms of helping the new programs learn from our journey. We’re here to help Indigenous peoples and Canadians understand and unlock the benefits from these partnerships.

  3. So, governance is critical. And then entrepreneurial spirit and support from your “shareholders”. It seems like a lot can be solved with these partnerships. Why hasn’t the market solved it then?

    4. Corporations want to bring in Indigenous partnerships, but those relationships have been contentious for hundreds of years. Some corporations don’t want to make a mistake. And some recognize we’ve all made mistakes and that’s what the journey toward reconciliation is about. Now they want to help. Our team straddles both worlds. We understand capital markets, publicly traded companies, and pressures of shareholders. We also understand Indigenous ways and its history, so we can help bring that together in a way that the values are shared and guide both sides. It’s about learning how to speak with each other, helping people connect and giving them a safe place to have those conversations – that’s when the magic can happen.

  4. So being a bridge builder is very powerful. What else is critical for these corporations to understand?

    5. I believe you need to be firmly rooted in your values. Thinking about our corporate partners who have executed successful transactions, they have a leadership commitment to making it happen. Their corporate development teams and legal teams are used to doing things a certain way, where time is money. It doesn’t start from a “seek-to-understand” point of view. Indigenous communities are different. The conversation is different. What I really encourage those organizations to do, and the successful ones really understand this, is to take that “seek-to-understand” approach. It’s going to look different than any transaction you’ve done before, and that’s a good, healthy thing. It takes real leadership from the very top, and commitment to following it through, because it’s a new way of doing business.

  5. The seek-to-understand approach takes time, and that often doesn’t compute with a corporate mindset. How have the successful companies adjusted their notions and approach to time?

    6. Patience, perseverance, and creativity. Those are three key elements to these kinds of transactions. Creativity is a big one. It’s not just to engage with First Nations partners – there are certain parameters of a loan guarantee that make it challenging. At AIOC, we are responsible for $3 billion of the Alberta government’s balance sheet. That’s a big responsibility. If you’re a taxpayer in this province, you don’t want me to tell you we’ve made a bad call. These deals are not easy to do. The bar is high. We have some creative credit structuring to protect the loan guarantee because if the province has a $150 million loan guarantee called, we’ve got less money for roads, schools, housing and health care. We all know the challenges there. Our credit underwriting needs to be prudent, and we need all three parties to collaborate around what works for the communities, the corporate partners, and the loan guarantee.

  6. Let’s look at the Indigenous community’s viewpoint. What are some of the signs of success in communities. How do they view these corporate partners and the structures that you’re helping to create?

    7. I think we’re on a journey and some have already seen the benefits. We’re seeing corporate and Indigenous partnerships changing contentious relationships into ones of mutual respect, understanding and collaboration. And we’re also seeing a massive unlocking of economic activity within these communities. They’re able to rebuild gathering places and all the things that go along with that – the contracting, the construction. It’s jobs, it’s income. All that drives economic activity and builds a healthy heart and connections to the community. Multiply that over 43 Nations and Settlements that have participated in our transactions. These are invaluable to the fabric of the lives in those communities. We’re just starting to see the positive economic impacts grow.

  7. How are you helping communities that don’t have capital markets or financial expertise to move at pace with some of these opportunities?

    8. There’s a lot to learn in a short period of time. We do that through our capacity grant funding, which provides advisors and/or funding for advisors. Our corporate partners also help fund that stream. Members of Indigenous communities can see the full lifecycle of the transaction – be at every single meeting, witness all the due diligence and take the site tours. Understand the journey start to finish, equipping them with the tools to engage with industry. Empowering them to say “Why are you here to talk about consultation? Why are you not here offering us equity share partnership?” The entire conversation has changed. They are not subservient to industry anymore, and I am so proud of that.

  8. Success for both corporates and communities in these deals must equate to more than just the money, doesn’t it? You’ve got human and cultural capital also on the table.

    9. You need to understand what these transactions bring to you. When it’s all about money, I don’t care who it is sitting on the other side of the table. And if it’s all about money, you’ll see what you get. When you’re in the trenches of those negotiations, if you haven’t spent the time to “seek-to-understand” and build trust upfront, Indigenous partner or not, that’s when you’re really going to feel it.

  9. What do all of us, but especially those involved with businesses and governments, need to consider to augment what you are doing?

    10. AIOC is one part of the equation, and we’re not all things to all people. We have the loan guarantees delivered, but that does not replace procurement, contracting, relationships and hiring. We need organizations and governments to start thinking differently about how these relationships are formed. If you’re trying to increase Indigenous participation in your workforce but can’t get anyone out to your job fairs – change the narrative. What if you started with an economic partnership? What does the recruiting funnel look like now? It’s a different way of approaching the issue. I think a lot of people are thinking, “How can we do this?” “How can I bring this to life for my company?” Talk to your Indigenous neighbours. Start the conversation and you will move along with that journey.

  10. Thinking about the AIOC journey – If we’re back here in a year, what’s one or two things you hope will have advanced or changed?

    11. I hope we’ve supported more partnerships. I hope we’ve broadened our scope of deals. I hope we’ve done one or two big game-changing deals across jurisdictions. And I hope the other programs are up and running.

John Stackhouse is Senior Vice President, Office of the CEO, RBC.