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On the eve of Canada hosting the G7 Energy and Environment Ministers’ meeting in Toronto, John Stackhouse, Senior Vice President, Office of the CEO, RBC, delivered a keynote at the IEA Energy Innovation Forum 2025. He focused on three forces redefining how the world operates.  


As you all know, we live in a new era of urgency, in which ambitions are growing and horizons shrinking.

  • It took 15 years for the semiconductor to change the world

  • It took 5 years for the Internet to change the world

  • And it’s taken barely 15 months for Generative AI to change entire landscapes

I was reminded of these new forces of compression during a visit to Silicon Valley last week where a few major tech CEOs said the same thing: “Long term is now six months.”

Yes, we live in a time of unprecedented change and unprecedented compression. And we live in a world that’s being restructured, in our view, by three defining forces. These forces are converging to redefine how nations, markets and societies operate—and they are all connected by energy security.

The first mega force of the 2020s will not surprise any of you. It’s frontier technology

Roughly 45% of the S&P 500 today is comprised of AI Hyperscaler stocks. These hyperscalers are spending more than half a trillion dollars a year, collectively, and that’s rising. For 2025-2027, that could mean $1.5 trillion.

It’s a huge concentration of capital that towers over what now seems like a distant memory: the big capital swings that the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act unleashed just five years ago.

Energy is essential to that growth, as you don’t scale—let alone hyperscale—without a new quantum of energy. And it needs to be secure energy.

The second mega force are the growing geopolitical divisions over trade.

Global trade as a percentage of GDP grew steadily following the Second World War from 10% to reach roughly 60% at the onset of the Great Financial Crisis. It has since plateaued in the mid-50s. This likely falls further next year, with trade volumes expected to increase a meager 0.5% in 2026, much slower than global GDP growth of 2.6%.

We don’t see an end to globalization, but this new age of re-globalization will lead to further capital shifts and energy innovation, just as we saw a quarter century ago when China joined the WTO.

Why? Countries trading less will inherently need more of their own energy, or at least energy from a smaller range of suppliers. Bring on the innovation.

Third, we’ve entered a new security paradigm in which defence—including space—will make major claims on both public and private capital in this more fractured, uncertain and conflictual world. Increased defence and security needs are top of mind for most of our governments. And, as you all know, defence supremacy requires energy.

NATO countries are targeting spending on defence and security to be 5% of GDP by 2035. That’s an annual spend of $2 trillion–and this in rapidly aging societies that may have less productive capacity and greater social need.

This trio of global shifts—in technology, trade and security—will require capital and demand innovation. Critically, these forces point to a clear global need: low-cost, accessible, reliable energy.

You don’t have security in the 2020s without data, critical minerals and energy. Every major advancement in AI will rely on enormous computing power. By 2035, global data center power demand is expected to reach 1,600 TWh, that equals the current power needs of Germany, the UK and France.

Just this week, the U.S. government announced a massive partnership with Brookfield Asset Management, Cameco and Westinghouse Electric, to accelerate the deployment of nuclear power—in part because of America’s ambition of AI supremacy.

Nations and companies that secure abundant and ideally low-carbon power will own the digital future. I stress low-carbon power because renewables are still the cheapest form of electricity generation. Low-carbon power because nuclear is the most energy dense, and increasingly adaptable with the advent of SMRs. Low-carbon power because Big Tech remains committed to procuring affordable, reliable and clean over the medium to longer term. For the G7, low-carbon power can be a competitive advantage and key to a security agenda.

Nations that master the ability to generate, store and distribute these diverse power sources, locally, will also reduce security vulnerability. From drones, sensors and cyber defence–modern militaries are increasingly electrified and digitized. And in an economic environment that can feel more like a battlefield than a marketplace, energy self-sufficiency will reduce exposure to price shocks and geopolitical pressure. Nations that master next generation energy technologies—think large-scale battery storage, or carbon removal and storage—will govern the industries of the future.

This competition for those industries may be won by those that have secure, affordable access to data, energy, and critical minerals. And that competition will be shaped by the two great techno-powers, the U.S. and China. As I mentioned earlier, the new security imperative depends on three inputs—AI, energy and critical minerals. The U.S. has two of these three. China is well on its way to having three out of three. Through collaboration, the G7+ can have an overwhelming security of all three. But we need to be faster, faster and faster. Back to that Silicon Valley ethos of time.

For energy, faster means removing frictions in key inputs traded across our nations. And faster means removing our own internal frictions. Across the developed world, it simply takes too long to build major projects. We have not found a way to disrupt NIMBYISM.

If we do, removing these frictions can quicken development, reduce uncertainty, improve economics and unlock capital to move in both speed and scale. Faster, faster and faster.

This is what is needed to keep pace with the speed in which our energy systems are transforming. Systems that used to evolve over decades now need to reinvent themselves in just a few years.

Energy efficiency–the “first fuel”—has slowed in the past decade. Grid modernization, renewable integration and EV infrastructure must scale faster than any energy transformation in history. Supply chains for lithium, nickel and rare earths are being rebuilt in real time to reduce our dependence on China.

A collaborative approach to responsible resource development across the G7 could be streamlined, with common regulations, standards and financing to mobilize cross-border flows. But let’s not fool ourselves, retooling energy systems at breakneck speed is not cheap. Ten years ago, the economic conditions were, frankly, more accommodating.

  • Low-cost capital

  • More fiscal capacity for subsidies

  • More aligned policy support and favourable market conditions

All those made clean energy projects financially attractive and relatively low risk. Today, higher long-term interest rates, trade frictions, and inflationary supply chain pressures have made the same investment environment more challenging.

And that presents a dilemma. Sustainable energy investments for all of the above could require $2 trillion per year—globally. And that is at the heart of our collective energy innovation challenge. Venture Capital and Private Equity are needed to drive innovation and new technologies to proof of concept. But we’ve reached a point where demonstration projects are too expensive for traditional venture capital and too risky for mainstream capital. This is challenge known as the ‘missing middle’ of capital.

Yet this challenge, is an opportunity. While China has become a global trading nation and clean tech leader, the G7 still dominates capital flows. G7 currencies account for 85% of global foreign exchange volume and dominate the $12.3 trillion in global currency reserves. And a lot of that capital—public and private—is flowing toward these opportunities around security.

Just think of how much has changed in the past six months—a.k.a. the new long term.

First, governments are now investors. We’ve seen the Pentagon create what’s essentially a private equity arm–a firm signal that governments will take more active roles as procurers, capital allocators and resource captors to ensure their economic prosperity and energy and resource security.  The Canadian government is standing up a new Defence Investment Agency with similar ambitions and will likely be using key financing arms to direct more venture capital to defence, space and other strategic security needs.

Secondly, we’re seeing much more assertive and strategic approaches to procurement, including indications from some key allies to create strategic reserves of critical minerals, secure supply chains for energy infrastructure and strategic offtake agreements.

Thirdly, we have seen nations explore new ways to use their collective balance sheets. Here’s one example: RBC is one of 10 global banks that is helping to stand up a new entity called the Defense, Security and Resilience Bank, to facilitate capital expenditures across the defense industry–some of which could conceivably be earmarked for energy and mineral development.

This is all part of a new chapter of what some might call state capitalism—or at least the economically activist state. This will be important for the G7+ and others to, at least, monitor, if not coordinate. Especially in terms of how markets across our countries can align and connect to facilitate new capital flows to these growing strategic imperatives.

Governments can also bridge market failures specific to regulatory uncertainties, demand and financing of first-of-a-kind projects. They can procure, finance and invest.

For example, U.S. Defense Procurement Act Title 3 allows for funding of critical minerals. Here in Canada, public entities like the Canada Infrastructure Bank and Canada Growth Fund can be used to help build out the dual use infrastructure of energy, minerals and defence.

The same opportunity exists for business development banks and export finance agencies across the G7+, to help underwrite the risks of new energy ventures as part of a bigger security strategy. It’s these new approaches to finance—ideally through public and private sector cooperation—that can unleash new waves of capital for this new imperative of energy security.

And do it with Silicon Valley speed.

Consider this: In 2022, climate tech private equity and venture capital outraised defense tech at a scale of 7:1. In 2025, the two are essentially even. I think we can all guess how 2026 is shaping up.

For emerging climate tech ventures, tapping into this new paradigm of defence and security capital may be key to the next few years of global innovation. There isn’t time to wait to see how it plays out. Technology is moving fast. Geopolitics are shifting. And a new map of global security is taking shape. Energy and critical minerals will be the ink on that map, and the G7—and the innovators in this room—have the chance to help draw it.

Disclaimer

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Canada’s prosperity depends on how efficiently it can move goods to market — yet its largest ports have fallen behind the world’s best. With global trade accelerating and supply chains under pressure, Roberts Bank Terminal 2 represents a generational investment in Canada’s competitiveness.

In this episode, Peter Xotta, CEO of the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority, Devan Fitch, the project’s Program Director, and Tamara Vrooman, CEO of the Vancouver Airport Authority, join John Stackhouse to discuss how this long-planned expansion will bring new automation, capacity, and environmental innovation to Canada’s Pacific Gateway. Together, they explore how smart infrastructure and strong partnerships can secure Canada’s trade future — sustainably and sovereignty.

Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or Simplecast

Port to Prosperity: How Roberts Bank Terminal 2 Is Rebuilding Canada’s Pacific Gateway

Tamara Vrooman: Canada is a country with a large geography, but a small population and so we literally need connectivity and transportation infrastructure to make our country work, and we certainly need that infrastructure to connect our country to the world. Global trade will need reliability. The supply chain disruptions that we have seen as a result of global conflict, pandemic, economic disruption, climate occurrences, that resilience is the name of the game. And so being able to confidently ensure that goods can move through a variety of circumstances is going to be the thing that allows, uh, different jurisdictions to win.

John Stackhouse: Hi, it’s John here, and that’s Tamara Vrooman. CEO of YVR or Vancouver International Airport. It’s one of the world’s top ranked airports giving us her bird’s eye view on Canada’s global trade position.

Tamara Vrooman: So we start with a position of advantage in terms of Asia Pacific trade and traffic. We have the country’s largest port, the country’s second largest international airport, and our proximity to the US border

John Stackhouse: Aounds pretty good so far, but how do we ensure that? As Tamara puts it, we win.

Tamara Vrooman: We need to ensure that we have multimodal access so that if one mode is constrained, another mode can be activated. Our goal is to move faster and more resiliently to more diversified markets. In order to do that, we have the component parts. They’re just not integrated in the way that they could be to allow for that speed and resilience that the international trade market is going to demand.

John Stackhouse: I’m John Stackhouse. Welcome to Disruptors the Canada Project. This season we’re crisscrossing the country to meet the leaders and innovators, making bold moves at a pivotal moment for the country when the shifting tides of trade are forcing us to look both inward and outward to prepare for what’s ahead. Speaking of Tides, today’s destination is British Columbia. It’s the Pacific Gateway. Home to our largest Tidewater shipping ports and for generations, a vital link to our trading partners across the globe. Every day, thousands of ships move across the world’s oceans, and they’re getting bigger. The newest container vessels are more than 400 meters.  That’s four football fields from bow to stern, making them among the largest moving structures ever built. And Canada’s largest port is simply not equipped to receive them. These ships are changing the math of global trade, and if we can’t fit them into our ports, they’re going to go south for Canada.

John Stackhouse: The simple question is, can we keep up? The Vancouver Fraser Port Authority is poised to break ground on a massive new project years in the making. It’s called the Roberts Bank Terminal two or T two. Before we get to how this project is going to happen. Let’s start with the why. We’re walking along Barard Inlet in downtown Vancouver. This area is so rich with natural resources, mountains, forests, oceans. It’s also an incredible hive of human and commercial activity.

John Stackhouse: Devan, we’re staring at a mountain of shipping containers, many of them destined for inland Canada. This port seems like it’s at capacity. Is that correct?

Devan Fitch: Yeah, we’re the size of the next five largest Canadian ports combined in terms of the amount of commodities that we move, uh, through the port of Vancouver.  You know, on the container sector, we are fast running outta capacity and we are forecasting to be short by the year 2030. And if we look at the container ship that’s right in front of us, that’s about a nine and a half thousand TEU ships. So those 20-foot equivalent units, those are those containers on board. We need to accommodate ships that are much, much bigger than that. We’re talking about 24,000 TEU so over double the size of that container ship. The terminals that we’re looking at right here, they were also built many decades ago, and they just don’t simply have the birth depth that’s required. You couldn’t pull up next to the container terminal because it’s just gonna bottom out on the, on the birth face there.

John Stackhouse: So best to keep those large ships away from the downtown core and bring the containers in it by rail. But even then. We’re gonna have a lot of ship traffic out, uh, in the waters with very big ships. Yes. How many more ships can we accommodate?

Devan Fitch: Well, that’s the funny thing about the trade through the Port of Vancouver, we’ve had a significant increase in container trade over the last two decades. So about 4% increase per year. 11% increase, uh, 2024 relative to 2023. And we’ve achieved that not by having more ships. But by having bigger ships with a higher percentage of the cans on board being pulled off or put on at Vancouver. And so that’s a trend that we see continuing into the future. So it’s not about more ships, it’s about much bigger ships coming.

Devan Fitch: And if we want to attract those shipping lines and be able to move Canada’s products and avoid having Canadian trade moving through US ports, we need to build big and we need to build now to accommodate that and attract that.

John Stackhouse: So the port in Burrard Inlet, its Vancouver’s inner Harbor, is already at its limits. Fortunately, Canada’s next chapter of trade is being expanded about 35 kilometers southwest at the mouth of the Fraser River Delta lies Roberts bank. It’s where the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority plans to build T2. Devan Fitch has spent years advancing the project. So after our walk, I sat down to pick his brain about what it takes to get something of this scale off the ground. Tell us first how you got into infrastructure and ports more specifically.

Devan Fitch: I started off as an engineer designing bridges and decided that I didn’t want to focus all my time working with computers, figuring out how much steel to put in a concrete column, and then moved over to, uh, project delivery. So that was a role with the local municipality here, figuring out where do we place bridges, not just how much steel do we put in a bridge, but where should it be? How do we marry the interest of community, the economic considerations? And through that was exposed to transportation more generally. And uh, the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority seemed like an excellent marriage of commercial competitiveness, operating uh, in competition with other ports and serving the public good as well with public infrastructure.

John Stackhouse: Most Canadians probably take the Port of Vancouver for granted, even though wherever you are in the country, if you look around at least some of the stuff in your life, pass through this port.  Give us a sense, Devan, of the magnitude of the Port of Vancouver and what it means to the Canadian economy.

Devan Fitch: I think the, the simplest way to wrap your mind around that is that if you take out of the equation all of the trade that we do with the US and you think about the trade that we do with the rest of the world, $1 in every $3 of trade passes through the port of Vancouver that’s supporting businesses right across Canada, consumers, right across Canada. We happen to be located in Vancouver, but we are very much Canada’s port.

John Stackhouse: As I understand it, the Port of Vancouver is the size nearly of the next five biggest ports in the country. So, it is by far the biggest, and Roberts Bank will enable it to grow by another 30%, is that correct?

Devan Fitch: Yeah, it’s somewhere between 20 and 30% depending on the, on the basis that you take.

John Stackhouse: So just what does 30% bigger actually mean in terms of new infrastructure? I asked Devin to give us some idea of the size of the place.

Devan Fitch: It’s a proposed new 2.4 million TEU, so 20 uh, foot equivalent unit container capacity terminal that in one fell swoop will increase capacity on the west coast of Canada by approximately one third.  It’ll allowed 135 hectares of, uh, new waterfront trade, enabling industrial land in one of the most industrial land constrained regions of North America. To give you a sense of scale of T two, I can’t help myself. Uh, 12 million cubic meters of sand and 4 million cubic meters of manufactured rock. And to put that in perspective, uh, on the sand side, that’s about, uh, 2,500 Olympic sized swimming pools.

John Stackhouse: Sounds enormous, but how does it compare to the world’s mega ports?

Devan Fitch: It’s big for Canada. It is modest in size and scale as you compare to some of the, the, the largest ports around the world in Asia and, and, and Europe. But certainly, a step function increase for for Canada. And, and, and our hope is that it’s the first step of, of us having more ambition to get big projects built, uh, where we both protect the environment and support the economy.

Devan Fitch: It will provide capacity to move a hundred billion dollar’s worth of trade goods every single year and support over 17,000 supply chain jobs across the nation.

John Stackhouse: Give us a sense of how the port business is transforming and what opportunities there may be for Canada to move up in the competition leagues.

Devan Fitch: Right now the world’s biggest container ships are about 24,000 foot equivalent units. They’re applying their trade from Asia to Europe, and we see shipping lines cascading those large ships onto the North American, uh, roots as they age. And so we’re expecting as we move forward to see a significant increase in the size of ships, calling it the Port of Vancouver.Right now the average size is around 10,000 TEU and we’re building Roberts bank terminal two to futureproof it to be able to accommodate ships as large as 24,000 TEU.

John Stackhouse: So those giant ships that we probably see on YouTube, uh, that seem mind-boggling yes. Uh, are largely for Asia to Europe, and now they’re gonna be deployed more to Asia, to North America.

Devan Fitch: Yeah. Over time, because the volumes of trade are highest on that Asia to Europe, uh, route because of the, the population centers and density. Then as ships age, they move them off that route over to the North American route. But as demand grows and shipping lines look to achieve economies of scale, those bigger and larger ships are gonna start coming to the west coast of North America, and we need to enable that.

John Stackhouse: Devan sees building the infrastructure to receive these new mega ships as nothing short of a critical nation building project.

Devan Fitch: We are literally building more Canada and we need to build it at a size and scale that is competitive and attractive on a global stage. Canadian consumers benefit because we’ve got an efficient supply chain bringing those goods in a cost effective way, and our exporters that are looking to get Canadian products on those ships heading back to Asia, have access to those containers. If we don’t build that infrastructure, those shipping lines are gonna look to go to other ports potentially in the us and I don’t think it takes much imagination to picture the consequences of having Canadian trade dependent on US ports given today’s climate.

John Stackhouse: Fair point. So now that Devon’s explained the why, I wanted to get the answers to questions like, how are we going to get this built and where exactly are we going to fit this giant terminal Roberts bank?

Devan Fitch: The proposed site for T2 sits just outside Vancouver in a sensitive coastal estuary. If you zoomed out on the west coast of Canada and you had to decide where would be the most appropriate place to put a container terminal, it’s right down in this Roberts bank area. It’s very close to deep sea shipping lanes. It has excellent, uh, railway service, highway roadway service. It’s got a population center that can provide labor, but that it isn’t so close that it’s located in this dense urban core. There are no bridges that ships need to pass under. It just so happens that that area is also one of Canada’s most diverse and rich ecological systems across the nation.  And so for us, when we look at trying to build a really big project that quite frankly, again, Canada hasn’t had the appetite to build a marine infrastructure project of this nature for several decades. We need to marry. How do you get a big project like that built in a cost effective way? While maintaining compliance and protection of the environment and considering the needs and interests of local First Nations.

Devan Fitch: So bringing that all together to deliver a project on time within budget that’s cost competitive to attract the terminal infrastructure investment that’s top of mind for us.

John Stackhouse: No easy feat, especially when you, uh, suggest it has to be done on time and on budget. What are some of the ambitions for the terminal that Canadians may want to appreciate?

Devan Fitch: Well, this terminal, once complete, will have the deepest berths of any container terminal on the west coast of Canada. It’s also gonna have significant on dock railway service. A, a big component of Canada’s competitive advantage is those class one railways that provide access from the water’s edge all the way through Canada to those deep population centers.

John Stackhouse: You’ll have to do some dredging to make, uh, more space for the ships. What’s required in this day and age to dredge, especially in an ecologically sensitive area like this?

Devan Fitch: Yeah. So just to give a sense of scale, um, the existing kind of births at the Port of Vancouver are up 15 meters deep out at Roberts Bank. We need to be over 18 meters deep for the birth face. But we need to also dredge, um, uh, 10 meters below that roughly to put in a layer of mattress rock to sit underneath these giant concrete caissons. These caissons are huge. They’re about the size of an eight-story apartment building, and there’s 32 of them that we’ve gotta float over and sink to create this, uh, this birth face.  And so for us, you know, considering the size and scale, uh, but also the environmental sensitivities, uh, we are working with Canadian scientists and, uh, engineering consultancies to come up with novel technologies to monitor in real time the presence of, um, species such as Echelon, uh, also known as Candlefish.  Very high significance and importance to local first Nations.

John Stackhouse: Incidentally, they’re called candlefish for a reason. They’re so oily. A dried one can literally burn like a candle. When they return to spawn, they bring a powerful pulse of nutrients to the rivers, feeding all kinds of other creatures like seals, eagles, and bears.

John Stackhouse: The Port of Vancouver has had to get creative to protect this keystone species. They’re actively networking with local tech companies to develop and deploy new underwater technology to keep tabs on them. So yes, they’re tiny fish, but they matter.

Devan Fitch: As we’re dredging, we can monitor in real time for the presence of Echelon and slow down or stop when they come in close proximity. Now, it’s critically important that we get that technology right because I’m sure you can imagine the cost and schedule impacts of false positives. Slowing down production on a big project like this. So trying to deploy new novel technology. Um, it might sound simple. It sounds like a fish finder that you get on a recreational fishing boat, but it’s a fish finder on steroids and it’s a new technology that hasn’t been deployed for real time monitoring before.  So that’s a first for us and a, and a first for the industry.

John Stackhouse: And a great opportunity for Canada to develop these sorts of technologies that we can then export to other ports, but other use cases around the world.

Devan Fitch: Yeah, we’re, we’re certainly prioritizing made in Canada products, um, Canadian businesses to trial and deploy these technologies, uh, on T two and it’s certainly, we will certainly do moving forward as well.

John Stackhouse: So besides developing new technology for fish monitoring, what else is support doing to ensure First nations and environmental issues are considered?

Devan Fitch: We’ve worked in close collaboration with First Nations for well over a decade. Unfortunately, it’s taken Canada over a decade to, to give regulatory federal environmental approval of the project.  We started around 2013 and, got that approval in 2023. One of the most robust environmental approval processes ever undertaken in Canada. As part of that process, we consulted with over 51st Nations and, uh, secured the consent of 27 First Nations through, uh, mutual benefit agreements. And so through the planning, uh, for the design of the terminal and then also the approach to construction, we’ve incorporated indigenous knowledge to work together with what we call western science to come up with, um, a approaches to construction, approaches to monitoring of key species.  That, uh, recognizes the importance of this environment to First Nations and to mitigate and, um, uh, manage the construction of a very large infrastructure project in a very, I’d say, sensitive and important, uh, diverse ecosystem.

John Stackhouse: Another key issue for the port is turnaround time. The longer it takes to load or unload, the less profitable the product.

John Stackhouse: Devan sees the T2 facility as a chance to streamline operations. He says Canada needs to boost port efficiency and capacity, and we need to do it fast.

Devan Fitch: If we look at the time horizon, you know, we’ll start construction in 2028. That terminal won’t be operational to 2035. That’s five years late relative to Canada’s need. Canada is projected to run out of container capacity in 2030. So the question isn’t, will we run outta capacity? It’s how long will we be short of capacity, and how problematic will that be for the supply chain?

John Stackhouse: It’s concerning that we’re going to have at least a five year gap between when we hit capacity and when more capacity comes on.  What might the consequences of that be? What do we need to think through in the interim?

Devan Fitch: Yeah, I, I, I would say that, you know, the supply chain crisis that we had, the pandemic, I should say, that we had a few years ago is unfortunately a bit of a, I would say, a data point of what we can expect. So Canadian businesses are gonna, need to start to look at ordering ahead of time, looking at resiliency in their supply chains. And so for us as a port authority, our focus is on what can we do to accelerate T2? Is there a way that we can get it getting constructed faster, get it in our operational faster? And what are some things that we might be able to do to get more juice outta the lemon, if you will, for some of our existing terminals to kind of bridge that gap?

John Stackhouse: Despite the extensive consultations, as you’ve heard, it still took a decade for federal approval. That’s exactly the kind of holdup Canada simply can’t afford under today’s pressurized trade conditions. To learn more about why we’re in this situation and about where things stand now, I spoke to Peter Xotta, he’s Devan’s Boss and CEO of the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority.

John Stackhouse: Peter, where are we at in terms of T two and how can we move more expeditiously?

Peter Xotta: You know, we’ve talked a lot about major projects in this country and how difficult it has been over the course of the last decade or two to get major projects done. Roberts Bank, terminal two is in a unique state of readiness for this point in time in Canada’s trade history. We have federal approvals, we have provincial approvals. We have the support of many First Nations for the project, and we’re now poised to make a final investment decision to move the project forward. So. Projects like this don’t happen overnight. It will be sometime five years of construction to make it happen.

Peter Xotta: But it’s important both to make sure that as our economy continues to grow and when economies grow, they require the things that are shipped into and out of the country via container. It’s important for us to move forward with that project to make sure we have the capacity, but also at this unique point in time to signal to the world that Canada is prepared to make tough choices, to get things done, to make sure that we can continue to play that important role in the Canadian economy.

John Stackhouse: When you say signal to the world, who’s watching and what are they wondering?

Peter Xotta: Well, it comes to the role that Canada has been playing with respect to, uh, providing agriculture, forestry and minerals, uh, critical minerals to the world as we continue to grow our capacity to produce those things. The question fundamentally is. Can you get your stuff to us? And, uh, investments in the supply chain are what’s important. Frankly, we’ve had a couple of years of challenges, uh, with respect to supply chain stability, some of that driven by geopolitics, some of it by, uh, virtue of, uh, labor discord, uh, that has happened over the last couple of years.  Now’s the time for us to settle that down, particularly in the context of our discussions between Canada and the United States. Our national imperative has been to pivot, to make sure that we reduce our dependence. Thankfully, we have trade relations with many countries around the world. It’s about us supporting the companies that do that business and growing that business.

John Stackhouse: Ports, of course, don’t exist in isolation. They’re connected to other infrastructure, rail and road, especially in this country. How would you evaluate the state of rail and road, particularly to expand with the port expansion here?

Peter Xotta: Yeah, I’d say, look, there is a, uh, an infrastructure deficit across North America because a lot of the capacity that was created 40, 50, or 60 years ago has now been consumed or is coming to the end of its useful life.  That said, in the time that I’ve been working at the Port Authority, we’ve just about doubled our volume of international trade through this gateway, so I’m optimistic. That we can and will find ways to do that, but it takes a determined kind of corporate and national strategy around trade, supporting the industries that need to make those investments.

John Stackhouse: When you look at other world-class ports, Rotterdam and Singapore, as examples, what should we be aspiring to do?

Peter Xotta: We should be aspiring to do what works for Canada. And so when you look around the world, what happens in Singapore, what happens in Shanghai, or frankly, what happens in Rotterdam isn’t necessarily the formula for what will work in Canada.  I say when you’ve seen one port, you’ve seen one port because there’s a unique alchemy in every port given the types of cargoes that it handles. For example, in some ports like Singapore, it’s largely containers. The west coast of Canada is. Predominantly bulk commodities, the coal, sulfur, potash, and other commodities that are exported, and particularly agriculture products.  Containers is an important part and a growing part of our business that we need to manage. And along with investments in RBT two come the opportunity to bring new technologies, new methods of handling. To make sure that we are competitive, uh, globally, and that we’re productive as a supply chain. So that’s what I’m excited about, is defining what that place will look like, that we’re trying to, to get to, and then getting on with moving down the path.

John Stackhouse: And of course, despite two mountain ranges, Canada’s west coast is connected to the rest of the country by rail and highway. And according to Tamara Vrooman, we need to start thinking more about greater connectivity for greater profit and for the common good.

Tamara Vrooman: We have some of the best trade and transportation providers in the world. You know, the airport that I’m privileged to to lead regularly gets ranked as the best in North America and one of the best on the planet. The same is true for other parts of our transportation and trade system. The problem is, is that they’re each independently strong but not adequately connected, and a lot of that has to do with. Data sharing with systems, with allowing this to be a truly integrated platform that moves goods and as I said, is agnostic as to the mode that requires a change and a shift in terms of how we share data, in terms of how we make decisions, in terms of making sure that we’re mobilizing the invested capital and the strength that we have in service of.Ultimately the same goal, which is moving goods versus moving goods via our own platform.

John Stackhouse: Figuring out where we’re headed as a country isn’t so simple, and it’s easy to get tangled in the details as we imagine the future of trade. But watch those containers, the cans as they’re called, moving in and out of Vancouver’s harbor for a while, and you’ll start to see it.

John Stackhouse: Clearly. There’s a huge opportunity here, not just for Vancouver, but for all of Canada. Here’s Devan Fitch again.

Devan Fitch: At its most simple level, there’s a trade balance there where a can comes here with something for import and if we don’t have something to put in that can, going back, it’s empty, it’s going back empty, it’s, we’re basically exporting air and that’s a lost opportunity for Canada.  It’s a lost opportunity for the shipping line because they can make a fee if it’s a loaded container. If it’s not loaded, they’re just taking it back to try and recycle it quickly. So really there’s a great opportunity for us to, to put more Canadian products in those containers and send them to markets overseas.  The world increasingly is looking to trade with Canada as a stable trading partner, and we have a very excellent opportunity there. There’s no shortage of things that we can put in there. We just need to explore it and take advantage of it. The demand is there. Shipping lines want a call at the port of Vancouver.  We just don’t have the births to accommodate additional ships. T2’s gonna provide three new births that are, can accommodate the biggest, largest, most cost effective ships. We will build it and they will come and Canada will prosper.

John Stackhouse: Pretty simple. Get our act together is the, uh, the message from the world and T2.  Not just a great movie, but uh, an opportunity for infrastructure for the country. Devin, thank you for being on disruptors. Thank you for having me. Looking out over Vancouver’s Bur Inlet with container ships loading and unloading goods from across Canada. And the world is clear that T two at Roberts Bank can be a game changer.  It’s a chance to enhance Canada’s trade story with the Indo-Pacific at a moment when it matters most. But only if we act together, investing with a sense of shared purpose. After all, this is a country built on ambitious infrastructure projects, including that mighty railway that connects this port with the rest of the country.

Tamara Vrooman: Who gets infrastructure built and who doesn’t is one of the most powerful determinants of the future that we wanna create. And so making those investments today. Like were made generations ago with the St. Lawrence Seaway and with other pieces of major rail, marine road and air infrastructure that were thought to be audacious and bold at the time really helped to build economic health of this country. And we can do so. Again, we just need to do it in an integrative way,

John Stackhouse: Build infrastructure in an integrated way. Those are words to live by. Whether that means integrating indigenous knowledge into how we build or sharing data across systems to increase efficiency. A port is not just a port, it’s part of an economy and a big part of a country.

John Stackhouse: And when it comes to deciding what to do next, Canadians need to listen to what global markets are telling us. And right now, at least part of what they’re saying is look to the west so we can ship to the east. This has been another episode of Disruptors, The Canada Project, an RBC podcast. Check out the rest of our series and subscribe to meet a nation of innovators who are riding the next wave of trade and technology.

John Stackhouse: I’m John Stackhouse. Thanks for listening.

Disclaimer

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In this edition: AI investments are partially masking the impact of the trade war on global growth – but Canada is missing out

By Jordan Brennan, Head of RBC Thought Leadership

The U.S.-Canada auto story just took another hit – or two.

On the tails of the Stellantis decision to move production of its Jeep Compass from Brampton to Illinois, this past week’s news is compounding:

  • General Motors announced it will end production of its BrightDrop electric delivery vans at the CAMI plant in Ingersoll, affecting 1,000+ jobs.

  • Paccar is laying off 300 workers at its plant in Sainte-Thérèse, Quebec ahead of U.S. heavy-truck tariffs.

What’s going on? You could interpret these shifts as proof that Trump’s “re-patriation” strategy is working. But dig deeper: both plants were already facing weakness. CAMI had encountered soft demand for BrightDrop vans; Paccar is turbo-exposed to U.S. heavy-truck demand and tariff risk. Brampton had a litany of problems over the years, including softening EV sales.

Where does this leave Canada? Our auto industry sits between two storms:

  • China is going all in on EVs—nearly half of all new car sales last year were electric.

  • The U.S. and EU EV market are stalling or retrenching—EV penetration in Europe fell to ~21% in 2024 from ~22% the year before.

  • The U.S. sits at just 10%. And that was before Trump’s One Big Beautiful bill shredded EV incentives.

This makes Prime Minister Mark Carney’s pending climate strategy even more consequential. Canada has three broad options:

  • Align with the U.S.: back off EVs and count on gas guzzlers to propel the industry forward.

  • Follow China: invest aggressively in next-gen batteries and hope EVs are the future.

  • Carve a middle path: incentivize hybrid adoption while infrastructure and consumer preferences catch up.

  • A 60-second ad, sponsored by the Ontario government and featuring former U.S. President Ronald Reagan disparaging the use of tariffs, prompted President Donald Trump to immediately cancel all trade talks with Canada. Premier Doug Ford’s government agreed to take the campaign off the air on Monday. But saying it wasn’t quick enough, Trump threatened an additional 10% tariff hike on Canadian goods.

  • Over the next 10 years, Prime Minister Mark Carney wants to double Canada’s exports to markets outside the U.S., boosting trade by $300 billion.

  • India invited Carney to New Delhi to meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. According to India’s new High Commissioner, a comprehensive free trade partnership between the two countries could result in $50-billion worth of trade annually, about double last year’s total.

  • An import ban on liquefied natural gas from Russia is part of a new package of sanctions agreed upon by the European Union countries..

  • President Trump will meet with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping next Thursday during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. This will mark the first meeting of the two since the U.S. President’s re-election.

By Farhad Panahov, Economist

AI-related investments may have masked the impact of the U.S. trade war on global growth so far, the IMF notes in the latest World Economic Outlook. Since the release of ChatGPT in late 2022, U.S. firms have quadrupled data-centre construction spending to nearly US$40 billion. There are now 5,000 data centres dotted across the U.S. Imports of data centre related equipment is up 50% over the same period. Taiwan accounted for half of the growth when it comes to U.S. imports of digital processing units. Canada, as the chart below indicates, has remained on the sidelines of the AI boom despite a growing number of data centre applications. Demand for related equipment has shown only a small uptick in recent years.

By Lisa Ashton, Director of Agriculture Policy

Canada’s agriculture equipment manufacturing industry is caught up in the U.S. tariff blitz.

The industry, which generates $7 billion in annual revenues (more than double from a decade ago), plays a critical role in North America’s food production, providing farmers with the equipment to plant seeds, harvest crops, feed animals, milk cows, and operate an efficient farm business.1

The U.S. market dominates exports, accounting for 82% in 2024, which has so far remained unchanged in 2025.2 But there’s a shift under way. The tariffs have benefitted the domestic industry in some cases by raising domestic demand of Canadian-made products and reducing some input prices, including Canadian steel.3 But the industry is also facing risks of rising costs to produce equipment that has parts from both sides of the border. Manufacturers are wadding through compliance complexity, with U.S. tariffs on some parts such as tractor brakes and Canada’s counter tariffs on parts such as tractor tires.4 For farmers, this means potentially higher input costs for new equipment and parts to repair their existing equipment—forcing decisions on investments that impact agricultural productivity. The shifts come as the industry has already seen a growing trade deficit since 2020, more than doubling in size in 2024.5

Manufacturers are setting their eyes on new growth markets, while maintaining relationships with their U.S. customers and supply chain. A renewed commitment in 2025 to the Canada and Mercosur free trade agreement negotiations offers promise for Canadian agricultural manufacturers to expand their presence in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, where agriculture production is expanding, and on-farm mechanization is exponentially improving.

Disclaimer

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For over two centuries, Atlantic Canada has been the launch point for Canada’s ventures into the unknown — from the Grand Banks to global trade routes. Today, that pioneering spirit is looking skyward.

In this episode, Stephen Matier of Maritime Launch Services and Rahul Goel of NordSpace explore how Canada is closing that gap. Together with Chris Hadfield, they unpack what sovereign access to space means for national security, climate resilience, and technological leadership — and how Nova Scotia and Newfoundland’s emerging space sectors are helping bring Canada into the new space age.

Because if Canada can’t launch its own satellites, it can’t lead its own future.

Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or Simplecast

Launching Sovereignty: How The Maritimes are Powering Canada’s Place in Space

John Stackhouse: Hi, it’s John here. I’d like to start with a voice. A lot of Canadians will recognize.

Chris Hadfield: Canada is a huge country, second biggest in the world, and so to imagine it as one thing, but to be able to fly onboard a spaceship and see the entire country from coast to coast to coast in 10 minutes, suddenly the reality of Canada becomes much clearer and the potential of our country is laid right out there in front of you,

John Stackhouse: In case you didn’t guess that’s retired astronaut engineer, fighter pilot, and pretty decent guitar player, Chris Hadfield. And when I think of Canadians who can help us see what the future of our country might look like, Chris Hadfield’s view is pretty hard to beat.

Chris Hadfield: Canada’s next growth engine is waiting above us if we want a bigger. More resilient economy. We need to move from trusted partner to a full stack space nation. Our critical systems that we take for granted every day, from communication to navigation, gosh, to timing, to money, transfer to weather everything, and sovereignty itself as a nation depends on space and the assets that we put up there.  We need to be able to put payloads into orbit from our own soil when our access and timeline depend on others, so do our jobs and our intellectual property. And of course, our ability to scale the universe isn’t going away. The necessity to take advantage of the high ground of space, that’s not going to diminish with time.

John Stackhouse: Chris has flown two space shuttle missions and was the commander of the International Space Station. Since returning to Earth, he’s been a tireless advocate for Canada’s role in the global space economy. Pushing for investments in satellites, robotics, and training the next generation of space leaders.

Chris Hadfield: So the real question for Canada is how do we continue to build the opportunity for young Canadians so that they won’t just be tempted to stay in Canada? They’ll be excited to stay in Canada. They’ll recognize, wow, this is cool. We got the landmass, we got the intellectual property, we got the education.  We got the raw materials, we got the history. We can do it here and sell it to the world. We just need to get at it and support the early nascent launch companies that are working on it right now.

John Stackhouse: The stakes for Canada’s space independence couldn’t be higher. Arctic surveillance, disaster response, communication, sovereignty, they all depend on satellite access, right now we don’t control. And while our competitors are iterating rapidly, launching new capabilities, testing innovations, adapting to threats, Canadian space, technology has to sit in line for foreign launches. Subject to other nation’s priorities and schedules.  I’m John Stackhouse. Welcome to Disruptors the Canada Project. This season we’re taking you on a journey across the country to meet some of the visionaries who are using technology to tackle our most urgent challenges, and in the process, create a blueprint for a stronger, more competitive Canada. Our destination today is Atlantic Canada.  In a minute we’ll hear from Rahul Goel. He’s the CEO of Nord space who’s building a Canadian rocket plus a launchpad in a small community in Newfoundland, but first to Nova Scotia, where we’ll meet Stephen Matier of Maritime Launch Services. Right now, they’re focused on building a launchpad for a near Earth satellite, so stick with us to discover how a region built on ocean exploration is now pioneering space exploration giving Canada some of the independents will need in a very new space age. This could be the perfect location to break Canada’s foreign launch dependency, turning a strategic vulnerability into a competitive advantage.

John Stackhouse: A lot of us grew up watching amazing Canadian innovations, the Canada arm probably being the most celebrated. Launched into space on the vehicles of other nations, and I’d say for the most part we were pretty proud of that, that we got to team up with NASA later, a SpaceX. Now there’s a bit of worry that, uh, we don’t have more sovereignty over our launch.  Why does launch matter, Steve, in terms of which nation controls it?

Stephen Matier: Well, it’s about sovereignty and autonomy and the ability to do the things we wanna do without intervention. Most everything we’re doing today, whether it’s using your cell phone or an ATM or your medical records or banking. All those kinds of things are all tied to satellites these days, and not having the ability to do those on our own can be problematic. And then when you look at our own sovereignty and the safety and security of our country, then it becomes even more important to have that autonomy.

John Stackhouse: So that’s an argument I’m guessing most Canadians would quickly agree with. Help us understand what we’re up against because we are in some respects, decades behind in terms of building large capacity. Is there a leapfrog opportunity here or do we just have to giddy up and try to catch up faster than decades might take?

Stephen Matier: There is certainly a leapfrog. The idea behind Maritime Launch Services and Spaceport Nova Scotia is exactly that, and whether it’s geopolitical as we’re seeing and worrying about on a daily basis or whether it’s that launch Cadence has picked up so much that there isn’t enough space ports in the right locations to put all these satellites into orbit. That’s the real issue for us to be able to have that capability to meet our own launch needs. Then the way to do that is. To collaborate with our allied partners that have some capabilities that can use our launch facility for deploying our own satellites from Canadian soil while we’re working to develop our own launch vehicle capabilities in Canada because that you’re right. That is years behind. So having a spaceport up and running gives us that window of opportunity while our own launch vehicles mature to be placing our own material into orbit.

John Stackhouse: A lot of people may be wondering, while this is going on in Nova Scotia, may have images of launch pads being better situated towards the equator. Which many of us probably learned in high school, why would there be an advantage in building more launchpads in Nova Scotia or on other parts of Canada’s coastlines?

Stephen Matier: When you look at any coastal area in the United States, it’s got a lot of stuff, a lot of people. And at the end of the day, overlying large numbers of, of people with rockets, uh, will never reach that level of safety. So being near the ocean is really key. Being on the right side of the pond is really key. So our European partners, they have places in saxophone and, and in the uk. And Norway and Sweden that can launch due North. But what we have in Nova Scotia and off the tip of this peninsula is a range of orbits that go all the way north south, all the way down to South America, over to the coast of Africa and over Europe. So 45 to 98 degree inclinations is, is a huge range. You can get to Sun synchronous Polar orbit from the West coast by launching due South from Vandenberg, and you can get to some of these other orbits on the East coast at Kennedy Space Center. But you can’t get to both from one place where we, because we hang out over the top of the North Atlantic, are perfect to achieve both. We’ve signed an agreement with reaction dynamics. They’re developing their own launch capability in Montreal. They want to try to start orbital launches in 2028. So we’re on a way right now of, of just executing on our plan to deliver for launch as early as next year.

John Stackhouse: What does Canada need to do to, uh, get fully behind, not just you, but all your peers who are trying to get Canada back into the top tier of Space Nations?

Stephen Matier: We’re a member of Space Canada, and that organization has really been an important piece of communicating to the government about some of their priorities. We already build a whole. A lot of satellites in Canada, whether it’s, you know, Kepler, MDA, TELESAT, to even here in Nova Scotia with Galaxy Mission Systems, GHG Sat, there’s a lot of satellites already made here and just having the ability to launch them ourselves is gonna be really monumental I think. So that’s a change that’s coming. We’ve signed an agreement with Reaction Dynamics. They’re developing their own launch capability in Montreal. They want to try to start orbital launches in 2028. That’s something we’ll be able to deliver. I think the current government really gets it. There is a real keen interest in dual use infrastructure that is gonna provide economic development in rural parts of Nova Scotia. We’re checking all those boxes and I think there’s a lot of support and a lot of interest from our government, uh, because of the geopolitics is part of it, but also because of the launch cadence and the requirements to serve our own needs in putting material into orbit.

John Stackhouse: That’s a great rallying cry. Steve, thanks for being on Disruptors.

Stephen Matier: Oh gosh, very much. My pleasure. Thank you.

John Stackhouse: Now of course, others have heard that rallying cry too. While Stephen Metier is building Canada a runway in Nova Scotia across the Gulf in Newfoundland. Rahul Goel of North Space is trying to build the pad and rocket an end-to-end bet.

John Stackhouse: On Canadian launch, different path, same goal, sovereign access to orbit. But what does it actually take to pour concrete on the Atlantic Coast? Wire a range and stand up a launch system in one of the windiest foggiest corners of the country. Rahul Goel joins us now. Maybe we can start by talking about how and maybe why you first got involved in the Canadian Space Race.

Rahul Goel: Well, you know, I’ve been involved in this for basically my whole life. I started off as a kid, just like any other, who wanted to be an astronaut, wanted to be a fighter pilot, but I never grew up. I’ve always wanted to do that. And as the years went by, I was not only fond of the amazing accomplishments that Canada’s had in space, especially our astronaut program and robotics, but also started realizing that we are falling behind and I decided that it’s incredibly important to help our country catch up. We have a massive exodus of talent, of capital, of sovereignty, of national pride. So all of those factors led to the founding of North Space and kind of trumped just this cool factor about building in space.

John Stackhouse: So now you’re building this uniquely Canadian rocket to launch from the small Newfoundland community of St. Lawrence. What are some of the key factors you must consider right outta the gate?

Rahul Goel: Choosing the architecture for rocket is incredibly important at this stage, and the reason is scalability. So we chose a liquid rocket architecture. We use kerosene and liquid oxygen, you know, very standard propellants.  A challenge with liquid oxygen is it’s a cryogenic propellant, so it’s a major challenge to sort it, keep it cool, and keep it in the exact right conditions. Forcing these propellants at exactly the right moment, at exactly the right temperatures and exactly the right pressures with almost no margin is the in incredible challenge.  We’re using a lot of innovative technologies from our software simulations all the way to additive manufacturing. To the logistics and operations, we’re starting with a small launch vehicle that’ll be capable of taking about 500 kilograms to lower earth orbit so that vehicle’s called tundra, and then we’ll scale up the exact same architecture because these types of rockets like to be big to a five ton, 5,000 kilogram metric, tons to lower earth orbit vehicle called Titan, and that’ll be able to really supply the necessary capability for the most valuable and most important missions.

John Stackhouse: From where you’re sitting, how would you describe the current state of space transportation and where do you think it’s headed?

Rahul Goel: There’s been kind of this growth in the small satellite sector over the last 10, 15 years, led largely by Rocket Labs Electron, SpaceX’s, ride share, transporter emissions. That kind of market will still exist. It’ll be a niche market, but we’re seeing satellite buses get larger. We’re seeing the most valuable missions go to larger payloads. We’re seeing our d and d and others looking for multi ton capabilities to orbit, and we’re looking at all rockets being reusable. And the only way to have a reusable rocket architecture like the one that you see, you know, Falcon nine, SpaceX launching and then landing back at the launch site is if you have enough propellant and a large enough vehicle. So, all that kind of is laddering up to our, uh, Titan vehicle in the early 2030s.

John Stackhouse: As Rahul points out, Canada’s department of defense or d and d is showing more interest in launch technology and orbital security, but national security alone won’t sustain a space economy. The tundra and his bigger sibling, the Titan will also have to make economic sense.  So, we asked Rahul beyond defense, what’s the real commercial opportunity here?

Rahul Goel: So on the satellite side, it’s a good question. Like, why are we building satellites? Again, the historical precedent, if you look at something like SpaceX, 70% of their launches nearly are starlink satellites. If you look at Rocket Lab, a great New Zealand company that’s now American, that’s scaled up, second most successful launch company in the world.  Their top line and bottom line are space systems satellites. Despite being a launch company, a launch is very important ’cause it gives you the flexibility and it builds this moat around your company. But without a robust demand pipeline, it becomes very difficult to scale a launch business. Our goal is to internalize 50% of our launch supply with, with our own demand, uh, by building our own satellites and constellations.  And this is very important for us to be a commercial success, not just a technological success.

John Stackhouse: As Raul’s team works towards that future, we asked him what his neighbors in St. Lawrence, Newfoundland can expect to see taking shape on the North Space site over the next few years?

Rahul Goel: What you can expect over the next couple years is fairly simple.You know, we’re building two launch pads for small to medium lift vehicles, so really a fraction still of what the SpaceX vehicles are like. We’ll have our own propellant generation stations. We’ll have a humble mission control to fit maybe 20 to 30 people. We’ll have a bunch of roads. It’ll span about 50 acres in total, and, uh, it’ll look a lot more like, you know, a regional airport than like Pearson Airport, for example. Then we scale up from there. But that should be very sufficient for us to get off the ground and do what we need to do. A lot of this is also enabled by the fact that modern technology means that we can remotely manage a lot of operations. So our, our main mission control very likely will be in St. John’s and not St. Lawrence, three and a half hours away. So it’s going to look futuristic, it’s going to look cool, but it, it doesn’t need to and won’t look necessarily like a massive Cape Canaveral like Complex.

John Stackhouse: The idea of a Canadian spaceport launching a Canadian rocket to carry a Canadian built satellite serving Canadian needs is pretty exciting.  But we’ve still got a ways to go as every astronaut knows how far and how fast we get there. Well depend on the goals we set.

Rahul Goel: Now, you know, it, it really depends on a company’s goal. So, you know, a lot of companies will come out of the gate launch companies or companies that are developing launch as part of their services and say, we’re gonna launch 50 or a hundred times a year. You look at an Isar, for example, they’ve raised north of 600 million euros. That’s a Isar Aerospace, by the way, a German launch company currently developing the Spectrum Rocket. So, they are going to require, uh, extremely successful and extremely frequent launch cadence in order to just break even on their r and d and development costs. By contrast, we’re estimating our program budget for our first orbital launch vehicle Tundra, to be south of a hundred million cad. There’s precedent for this. Falcon One by SpaceX was $95 million USD.  Rocket Labs, uh, electron was under a hundred million. USD survivability is extremely challenging in this business, so that’s why we have our space system side and building our own infrastructure to minimize the marginal cost.

John Stackhouse: When you think about what North Space is developing, what would success look like?

Rahul Goel: So for us, success for launch will mean if we’re launching once a month, roughly, we’re gonna be in a really good position as a company. Our whole business plan is built that way. We’re definitely gonna gun for launching way more and doing way more, but it’s not an existential threat to us if we don’t launch at, you know, at SpaceX levels because it is very hard to do this activity and especially to scale it up, but they’ll pay off in the, in the long term.

John Stackhouse: I like Raul’s distinctly Canadian take on success. Cautious, grounded, but optimistic. He talks about survivability and the long view, and that’s exactly what Canada’s new space companies are trying to do. Build systems that have room to grow, can withstand setbacks and then learn from them. Because in this business, progress often means a few failed launches along the way.

Rahul Goel: Failure is always hard. We try to launch our rocket for the first time, and we failed at that.

John Stackhouse: He’s talking about the launch attempts back in September. When Nord space’s tiger Rocket, which incidentally is powered by the Hadfield engine, fail to launch.

Rahul Goel: Of course we would love to not fail, but it doesn’t work like that in rockets. This is really tricky stuff. We are preconditioned to that and we have a better sense of understanding which failures are actual, like serious systems, programmatic failures, and which are just the right type of failure, the type of failure that you can learn from rapidly, and you don’t have to go back to the drawing road because you realize your business case is wrong or your fundamental technology choices are wrong in rocketry. I think it’s really important to fail to a certain extent. ’cause if you’re not, you don’t know if you’re really pushing all the way to the edge. And because the margins are so slim, you wanna know that you’re not wasting any capacity. So you, you know, you’ll see engines fail, uh, from Nord space for sure. In fact, we’ll, we’re gonna push them to fail. You’ll see some rockets fail, but that’s part of the process, uh, to get their, you know, SpaceX does it exceptionally well. Not every company has a billionaire backing it to allow for so many failures. But it’s just part of the process and par for the course for us.

John Stackhouse: I can’t help thinking about Chris Hadfield watching those early launch attempts. His name literally stamped on the rocket engine.

Chris Hadfield: It’s funny when people ask me about, uh, being an astronaut, all, all they really focus on, even though I was an astronaut for 21 years, is the six months I was in space. There’s almost no awareness and, and very little recognition of the fact that I spent 20 and a half years doing things so that I could succeed in my six months in space. And what you do in preparation essentially is you get stuff wrong, you get into simulators and you. You know, some days everybody dies, and it’s only when you get into a place where you can test it safely so that failures aren’t deadly, that then you could actually improve things and, and have a chance to succeed when it matters the most. You can’t make every event sacred. You have to recognize that failure is a part of success. How did you learn to ride a bicycle? Did you ever fall down? Was there a time in your life when you didn’t know how to ride a bicycle? But hopefully someone helped you enough that you didn’t do permanent damage to yourself while you were learning? As you develop the skill, we need to provide that same environment as we develop rocket technology.

John Stackhouse: You can’t make every event sacred. Failure is part of success. I love hearing people like Chris Hadfield and Rahul Goel reflect on the role of risk and how embracing it is essential for our future success. And one more thing that will secure that future as a Spacefaring nation building and keeping a skilled workforce.

Rahul Goel: We already do such a great job as Canadians. I think training our workforce. In fact, we train our workforce and it enables other countries to build their space programs and everything else. Our best and brightest leave our country. We train them here. A lot of it is publicly funded and they leave. I think we’re doing an exceptionally good job in Canada training talent and, and creating opportunities. But at the end of the day, the, the retention is really the problem. The amazing thing about building capabilities in space is that it spans the entire spectrum. Highly multidisciplinary, especially in rockets. We need people, you know, in business development, we need people in, you know, we need welders, and we need plumbers and we need people on the ground who are building roads and, and we need civil engineers. And yes, we need the rocket scientists, and we need electrical engineers and software engineers, propulsion engineers, all kinds of highly specialized, but also just key roles that, you know, Canadians are really, really good at.

John Stackhouse: We’ve got the skills and we’ve got the talent. Canadians have been talking about going to space for a long time. Building up to this moment when Canadian school kids get to count down the launch attempt of a Canadian rocket.

Rahul Goel: I like to say that we’re working really hard to give Canada its own Apollo moment, what the Apollo program did for the United States, and demonstrated that they can go to the moon if they decide to, if they choose to. Within a decade completely changed the country to a point. You know, I’m, I have a NASA hat still, like, why do I have that? It’s because it’s, it’s the most inspiring brand in the world still.

John Stackhouse: Here’s Chris Hadfield again on what this moment means for Canada.

Chris Hadfield: Our kids are kind of counting on us as the current crop of adults to do inspiring things. If they aren’t inspired by what’s happening in Canada, then why wouldn’t they leave? When I was a 9-year-old kid, I had a head full of ideas and no way to turn them into reality until I saw the very first astronauts going to, and then eventually walking on the moon. Neil and Buzz, just imagine instead of planting an American flag on the moon, if they had been planting a Canadian flag and if that rocket had been a Canadian rocket. Not only would I have felt great pride, but the path for me would’ve been so much more clear. During the Apollo program, every single one of them was an American. No one has ever left earth orbit in all of human history, except those 24 Americans. But in February, in fact, the plan date is February 5th. This enormous rocket is gonna launch out of Florida and onboard. It will be three Americans going to the moon, but the fourth crew member is a Canadian. It is a hugely historic moment that of all the countries in the world, the first non-American to ever go to the moon is gonna be Colonel Jeremy Hansen from Ailsa Craig Ontario. An amazing moment of Canadian capability, individual perseverance. And of great Canadian pride

John Stackhouse: From the shores of Canso Nova Scotia or Newfoundland’s Bureau Peninsula, you can see clearly what generations before us saw the edge of the known world and an open invitation to go beyond it. For more than two centuries, the Maritimes have been Canada’s launching point into the unknown. From fishing on the grand banks to merchant runs to the Caribbean, to naval convoys crossing the Atlantic, Stephen Mattie and Rahul Goel aren’t just building space technology. They’re confronting Canada’s longstanding dependency on others to get us where we need to go. Instead of waiting months for foreign launch slots or settling for whatever satellite capacity others provide, they’re creating the infrastructure that Canada needs to compete in the space economy. The stakes couldn’t be higher. Climate change is opening Arctic shipping routes that need monitoring our coastlines stretch across three oceans requiring surveillance. Our digital economy depends on satellite communications that we don’t control with 254 launches happening globally in 2024. And Canada dependent on foreign rockets for every single mission. Every day we delay is another day we may fall further behind. The question isn’t whether Canada needs more space sovereignty. It’s whether we can build that capability at home, and maybe that’s the maritime advantage. A region that’s been launching things into the unknown for centuries and now applying that expertise where there are no limits from rocky shores to the edge of space, you can see how much opportunity there is for Canada. You just need to look up. You’ve been listening to Disruptors, the Canada Project, an RBC Podcast. I’m John Stackhouse. Thanks for joining us on this incredible innovation journey across Canada and stay tuned for lots more ahead.

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In this week’s edition: Is Stellantis the first domino to fall? And how Canada can strengthen its role in an REE-bifurcated world.

Is this the end of the auto pact?

By Jordan Brennan, RBC’s Head of Thought Leadership

Frustration is building in Canada’s auto sector. And concern.

Less than one week after U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick told a Canadian audience that “car assembly is going to be in America and there is nothing Canada can do about it,” Stellantis announced it will shift planned Jeep Compass production from Brampton to Belvidere, Illinois.

This looks like the fruits of America’s trade strategy, which aims to re-industrialize America through re-patriation of manufacturing capacity.

The fear: Stellantis is the first of many dominos to fall. 

Canada’s original managed trade in autos—the 1965 Auto Pact—tied duty-free access to production and value-added commitments in Canada, catalyzing continental supply-chain integration and shifting Canada from many low-volume domestic models to fewer, high volume North American models.

Today, Canada exports roughly nine-in-ten Canadian-made vehicles to the U.S. In any ordinary business, reliance on a single customer would be intolerable. But it appeared tenable through the Auto Pact and NAFTA eras. Today’s push to re-patriate Canadian auto jobs is a reversal of the 1965 logic. And it reminds us about our dangerous concentration risk.

In the face of the trade turmoil, Prime Minister Carney has pursued a strategy of patient diplomacy. What are Canada’s options if that doesn’t work?

The U.S. assembles 10-11 million vehicles annually, most of which are sold within the domestic market. Some 15% of American-made vehicles are exported. And in any given year, one-third of those exports are shipped to Canada, making us the largest export market. Closing the door on American imports would hit a channel equal to 7-10% of annual U.S. production.

Then there is the China angle. Beijing slapped a 75% provisional duty on Canadian canola in August. China’s ambassador has since proposed reciprocity—lifting canola and pork tariffs if Ottawa removes its 100% tariff on Chinese EV’s. Premiers Scott Moe and Wab Kinew have urged Ottawa to explore the proposal, which would intensify competition with Tesla, for example.

Other options include sectoral deals with Germany, Japan and South Korea. Think LNG offtake for defence procurement commitments—with auto-assembly mandates as part of the package negotiations.

While none of these options are great, Canada has leverage—as America’s top auto export market and a deeply integrated supplier base. This only works if used surgically. America’s real economic competition and strategic threat comes from China, not Canada. A grand bargain that locks in North American capacity and predictable market access remains the cleanest outcome. 

  • The Keystone XL pipeline is back in the conversation. This time at the negotiating table during the ongoing trade talks in Washington between the U.S. and Canada.

  • Setting a “new roadmap” for Canada-India relations. Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi after a two-year diplomatic rift.

  • Canadian manufacturing sales fell 1% in August, while wholesale receipts dropped 1.2%, underscoring the impact of U.S. tariffs on key trade-exposed sectors.

  • Canada added 28,000 new manufacturing jobs in September—the increase was concentrated in Ontario and Alberta and partly offset the 58,000 manufacturing jobs lost between January and August.

  • Ikea responds to Trump’s new furniture tariffs with plans to boost U.S. production. Currently, only 15% of what the Swedish home furnishing giant sells in the U.S. is made there.

By Vivan Sorab, RBC Thought Leadership’s Senior Manager of Clean Energy

As China escalates its Rare Earth Element (REE) advantage over the United States with enhanced export controls that could have widespread impact on critical defense and semiconductor supply chains, Canada must strengthen its role in the REE supply chain.

The challenge? Canada has the resources, the capital, and the intellectual property to start building a supply chain but needs to mobilize at speed.

Funding: The tools to build a REE supply chain exist. Canada classifies REEs among its priority 6 critical minerals (alongside lithium, graphite, nickel, cobalt, and copper) to receive funding under a $1.5 billion carveout from the Strategic Response Fund. While funding has flowed for REE mining (e.g., commitments to REE projects in Labrador), Canada must accelerate deployment to processing and manufacturing of key REE-based products like magnets.

Guarantee Demand: U.S. government-backed price floors and offtake agreements for REE products are helping make REE projects more attractive to the private sector. Similar approaches in Canada could help step up a domestic supply chain.

Build Domestic Processing Capability: Canada has REE intellectual property on home soil. Kingston-based Cyclic Materials, a REE magnet recycler, is building a $25 million Centre of Excellence and is partnering with France-based Solvay to supply recycled REE oxides for further processing. By growing processing capabilities at home, Canada can strengthen its position.

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Canada is about to make historic investments to reorient the economy. The scale and focus of these investments should serve as a wakeup call to anyone working in Canadian postsecondary education or relevant provincial ministries—signaling both opportunity and necessity for change.

The upcoming federal budget is expected to allocate billions for nation-building initiatives like modernizing defence and space infrastructure, expanding computing capacity, and developing renewable energy. The potential rewards–sovereignty, growth and competitiveness–are great. As is the risk. We are hedging our bets on talent and innovation.

But as we laid out in our recent report, Testing Times, the postsecondary sector is facing a crisis. Just as Canada is ramping up, colleges and universities are scaling down–closing programs, departments and campuses. Postsecondary institutions across the country need to modernize and re-align their mandates for growth–as outlined in A Smarter Path—but they lack the financial footing, flexibility and connectivity with industry to do so. 

This was the context in which RBC Thought Leadership and our partners at the Business + Higher Education Roundtable convened a summit on Talent, Technology, and a New Economic Order. In September, about 60 industry and postsecondary leaders came together at RBC’s head offices with a shared interest: ensuring Canada’s historic investments yield historic rewards. We focused on three areas of national ambition that depend heavily on postsecondary for talent and innovation:

  • Defence and space capabilities

  • AI and digital technology

  • Major energy projects

The following summarizes the imperatives, opportunities and bold ideas that were discussed.

Today’s threats to sovereignty and security are not the ones that Hollywood war films call to mind. They are increasingly complex and defending against them requires economic and digital strength—and not just on earth. National security and prosperity are increasingly dependent on space infrastructure like satellites, which Canadians use for everything from surveillance and environmental monitoring (some key climate change variables are only measurable from space1) to daily communication and navigation.

But Canada’s capabilities in space, and in defence more broadly, are falling behind global competitors. Government procurement contracts—critical for maintaining and advancing capability and innovation—take significantly more time than comparable procurements in other jurisdictions. Our commercialization of space products and services trails other countries. And years of underspending has hurt Canadian defence capacity, with acute personnel shortages spanning the armed forces; trades and technician roles are particularly understaffed, as are engineers, including specialists in naval combat and aerospace.2

Spending commitments for defence and space provide a historic opportunity.

  • Canada is spending $9 billion on defence in 2025–2026, including $2.6 billion for recruitment and retention, and has pledged to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP annually by 2035.

    • In addition to building conventional defence capabilities, this is an opportunity for Canada to innovate and advance new technologies for purposes like surveillance and forecasting.

    • We can also lean into existing strengths. For example, Canada is already ahead in developing wildfire monitoring capability (microsatellites) that can be used to track fire activity and inform management efforts at home and internationally.3 In addition to threatening lives and livelihoods, wildfires can destroy critical infrastructure like communication systems and energy grids and cause political instability — our ability to respond quickly is an important part of a national defence strategy. 

  • The federal commitment to establish a Bureau of Research Engineering and Advanced Leadership in Innovation and Science (BOREALIS) is an opportunity to invite industry and postsecondary partners to quickly advance dual-use technology (defence and other civilian applications).

Three ideas from the summit that would give Canada an edge in defence and space:

  • Position Canada as NATO’s firefighting nation

    • Use a portion of new defence spending to grow earth observation capabilities, AI-enabled disaster response and drone technologies for wildfire management.

  • Build BOREALIS to match models like DARPA and ARIA

    • Both the Advance Research and Invention Agency (ARIA) in the U.K. and the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) in the U.S. fund high-risk, high-reward projects, free from political constraints and academic processes.

  • Retrain automotive workers for shipbuilding and space sectors

    • Design new competency-based postsecondary programs that let experienced workers with relevant skills move through programs quickly–saving time and money–on their way to an industry-recognized credential.

Companies and organizations around the world are adopting AI to achieve productivity gains and become more efficient. Canadians are moving slowly by comparison. Despite being home to a concentration of the world’s top AI researchers and foundational AI models, when it comes to AI maturity, about 70% of Canadian companies are “crawling” or “walking,” and few (7%) are “running” —less than half the proportion of runners globally (17%) .4

Our top talent tends to move abroad, as do their ideas (most AI patents developed in Canada are owned by foreign entities5). And Canadians are less confident leveraging AI tools to boost productivity at work than our global peers.6

Government commitments and initiatives are opportunities to drive progress.

  • Defence funding could help drive postsecondary-industry collaboration on AI research and innovation (to commercialize dual-use AI, for example).

  • In the days following the summit, the Minister of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Innovation Evan Solomon announced a new AI Strategy Task Force of Canadian researchers, entrepreneurs and industry partners charged with developing a federal AI Strategy. The strategy will include “actionable insights and recommendations” to drive leadership in areas including education and skills, as well as commercialization.7

Now is the time to invest in home-grown innovation and quickly scale up and retain AI skills to capitalize on our advantage. Here are three ideas from the summit:

  • Buy Canadian technology first

    • Canadians–businesses, postsecondary, governments– should be the first customers for our own innovators, rather than wait for U.S. market validation.

  • Allocate more corporate resources for staff training

    • Employer-sponsored training in Canada lags international peers8 –our top 100 companies, based on market cap, should increase corporate training budgets and partner with postsecondary providers to deliver AI upskilling that develops internal capacity for productivity and growth.

  • Teach AI skills across postsecondary disciplines

    • Canadian colleges and universities should ensure students, no matter the program, develop AI literacy skills that they can leverage post-graduation.

Canada faces unprecedented energy demand as we expand computing and space infrastructure and pursue industrial growth. Net-zero policies driving a clean-energy transition place additional pressure on electrification and create demand for critical minerals—key to batteries, solar panels, magnets and wind-turbine motors. And oil and gas will continue to be a critical part of the energy supply mix to help reduce costs for consumers and ensure reliability.

A new Major Projects Office plans to fast-track energy projects to meet rising demands but is up against widespread skills shortages. Older skilled-trades people, for example, are retiring at faster rate than they are being replaced,9 and engineering students are not pursuing mining pathways (mining represents just 1% of engineering enrollments10).

Skills gaps are also an issue. Massive infrastructure projects will only be successful with people who can collaborate and solve problems in real time.

Canada’s nation building agenda creates momentum that postsecondary, industry and governments can use to address skills challenges and meet energy demands:

  • High-profile projects present an opportunity for postsecondary providers and industry to communicate career opportunities in energy sectors.

  • Indigenous populations are growing faster11 than the general population, and are often closer, geographically, to energy projects. Strong partnerships and education strategies that deliver community-based programming can empower community members to take on key roles and fill skills gaps.

  • Canada has delivered on major energy projects before—nuclear refurbishments at the Bruce A Nuclear Generating Station in the early 2010s is a great example.

Three ideas from the summit to capitalize on Canada’s energy momentum:

  • Backstop training for major projects

    • Provincial and federal governments should support human resource strategies and training initiatives, particularly for planned projects that are expected to stall due to a lack of talent.

  • Build an energy skills strategy

    • Major players in the energy industry need to dedicate time and resources to inventorying and projecting skills needs, factoring in evolving technology. They should work with postsecondary providers to design training programs that prepare graduates to hit the ground running.

  • Develop skills in partnership with Indigenous communities

    • Industry and postsecondary institutions should partner with Indigenous communities to design and offer training programs that prepare Indigenous talent for careers in the energy sector.

The path forward will take an urgent and coordinated effort from governments, postsecondary institutions and industry. The world is not standing still. Competitor nations are racing ahead in space exploration and AI adoption, while also investing in skills and infrastructure. Canada has the tools to compete—and lead—but only if we align our systems to meet this moment with urgency and ambition. Summit participants surfaced the following recommendations for governments, postsecondary and industry to take immediate action on.

Federal Government

Leverage the AI strategy for skills: Canada’s new AI strategy should have guidance for postsecondary that supports their modernization, e.g., explicit advice that helps institutions efficiently and effectively develop necessary AI skills (including an understanding of risks and when not to leverage AI) among staff and students, across disciplines.

Build Defence and Energy Workforce Alliances: Canada plans to launch up to five Workforce Alliances “to tackle urgent labour market challenges, drive growth and advance industrial strategies.”12 These should include alliances in defence and energy.

  • Each alliance should bring major employers, unions and postsecondary leaders together to talk supply and demand.

  • Alliances should inventory projects and programs already in place; detail current and projected skill gaps, regionally; consider how skills demands will evolve given new technology; identify and engage appropriate program providers to meet skill needs.

Capitalize on global strength in wildfire management: Use a portion of new defence spending to grow earth observation capabilities, AI-enabled disaster response and drone technologies for wildfire management.

Empower the Defence Investment Agency: This newly announced agency should have the mandate to streamline goals and operational requirements across the Department of National Defence, the Department of Public Works, Public Services and Procurement Canada and other departments, as applicable.

Modernize research and innovation funding: Funding criteria should focus more on outcomes and less on process.

  • Consider a new research and innovation agency, like the Defence Investment Agency, to review and coordinate “tri-agency” funding and other relevant programs–ensuring a balance of funding directed to strategic priorities, and between inquiry–and mission-driven research. Such an agency could lead or support additional changes like:

    • Embracing a model like DARPA with BOREALIS: fund high-risk, high-reward projects, free from political constraints and academic processes. 

    • Reforming the Scientific Research & Experimental Development (SR&ED) tax credit (building on reforms made in 2024) to incentivize commercialization.

    • Revamping and expanding national sandboxes,13 creating more opportunities for collaborations between industry, military, universities and colleges, focused on rapid prototyping and testing new defence and space capabilities.

    • Ensuring any new funding commitments are leveraged strategically. For example, at the summit, the federal government shared plans to fund additional research chairs to attract top American academics to Canada. Funding should be tied to strategic priorities and focus on attracting talent with experience driving mission-driven research projects. New chairs should be expected to help build capacity and act as champions for change in Canadian universities.

Backstop training for major projects: Coordinate with industry and relevant provincial governments to provide immediate financial support for training required to advance major energy projects.

Incentivize talent recruitment and retention: Offer tax credits for global talent needed to fill urgent skill shortages (i.e. energy project managers), and to retain exceptional Canadian graduates (i.e. in technology fields). 

Stabilize annual international student caps: Outline realistic, stable international student targets that enable appropriate population inflows and longer-term institutional planning.

Prioritize Canadian technology: Commit to using Canadian technology, including AI and space-based technologies, unless no domestic supplier offers an appropriate product or service. Prioritize Canadian technology in all future procurements and seek to be an anchor customer for promising Canadian start-ups.

Provincial Governments

Protect postsecondary systems: Increase domestic per-student funding (potentially tied to performance criteria or outcomes) in line with inflation. And/or offer more flexibility for institutions to set tuition, ensuring access is protected with robust government student assistance systems and institutional set-aside programs (that reserve a portion of tuition revenue for financial aid).

Offer strategic direction: Outline modernized expectations for transferable skill development.14 Institutions should develop AI literacy skills and collaboration skills, for example, across disciplines.

Backstop training for major projects: Coordinate with industry and the federal government to provide immediate financial support for training required to advance major energy projects.

Facilitate work-integrated learning partnerships: Consider replicating the U.K.’s Knowledge Transfer Partnerships, a granting program co-funded by industry partners that pairs recent grads with business or community organizations to solve innovation challenges.

Fund innovative pilot projects: Help institutions break the mold and develop competency-based education programs divorced from seat-time, for example, and ensure policy and qualifications frameworks are set up to scale successes.

Prioritize Canadian technology: Commit to using Canadian technology, including AI, unless no domestic supplier offers an appropriate product or service. And prioritize Canadian technology in all future procurements.

Postsecondary Institutions

Meaningfully engage employers: Explore new models for industry involvement. Build on successes engaging industry, for example, through university continuing education departments and colleges’ program advisory committees (which involve industry and community partners in curricula development).

Ensure all students graduate with transferable skills: Develop work-ready skills like AI literacy, adaptability, entrepreneurship, communication and collaboration in courses, assignments and work-integrated learning experiences.

Expand access to work-integrated learning: Including but not limited to internships and co-ops; practical programs with applied learning opportunities or immersive field trips, like visiting mining sites with industry partners are also great examples of work-integrated learning.

  • Create opportunities for students to work together across disciplines–like they will in the workforce–to solve problems.

  • Explore opportunities for technology to build experience (i.e. simulators).

Facilitate greater career mobility: Enable workers to navigate a dynamic economy. Consider:

  • Multi-disciplinary programs like the University of Calgary’s new energy science program, which covers a range of in-demand energy fields.

  • Incremental credentialling, for students in programs with low completion rates, like apprenticeships, so they receive recognition for skills gained.

  • Competency-based education programs that allow adults with relevant skills and experience to earn credentials quickly, learning at their own pace.

  • Skills-based transcripts that position graduates to articulate their competencies and succeed as employers shift toward skills-based hiring.

Develop community-based programming: Work closely with Indigenous communities and industry to develop tailored training programs. Consider using mobile training units, and remote or hybrid learning formats (where internet connectivity allows).

Offer upskilling and reskilling programs: This should include programs aligned with opportunities in defence and energy sectors, and to support an AI-literate workforce. Programs must meet the needs of learners with competing responsibilities, embracing formats like remote/hybrid, intensive learning, and competency-based education.

Prioritize Canadian technology: All colleges and universities should commit to using Canadian technology, including AI, unless no domestic supplier offers an appropriate product or service.

Industry

Send executives to participate in federal Workforce Alliances: They should come prepared with long-term project plans and skills projections.

Allocate staff resources to inform program development: Industry representatives with insight into day-to-day and forecasted long-term skill needs should be involved in designing postsecondary programs and work-integrated learning experiences. They should commit to hiring students who complete those programs.

Allocate more corporate resources for staff training: Canada’s top 100 companies, by market cap, should commit to a minimum annual training budget of $500 per employee – roughly double the current estimated industry average.

Innovate with postsecondary partners: Contract researchers at Canadian universities and colleges to overcome issues or improve productivity with new processes and tools. Consider a “relay race” partnership approach, e.g., university ideation, college or polytechnic application, industry deployment.

Reach students in high-schools, colleges and universities: Shareinformation about rewarding careers in sectors in need of talent, like energy. Host secondary and postsecondary student field trips that provide sightlines into specific industries.

Leverage AI for productivity gains: Integrate AI into core operations, not simply pilot projects and provide access to AI upskilling that develops internal capacity for productivity and growth.

Build mutually beneficial Indigenous partnerships: Engage communities surrounding major project sites to lay the foundation for meaningful employment and community benefits, including working with postsecondary to design and offer tailored training programs.

Hire for skills: move from hiring candidates who have held the same or similar job title previously, toward hiring candidates with skills and experience that align with expectations (or skill families), supporting a more mobile workforce and sending clear signals to training providers about which skills are needed.

Prioritize Canadian technology: Canada’s top 100 companies, by market cap, should commit to using Canadian technology including AI and space-based technologies, unless no domestic supplier offers an appropriate product or service.

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Canada’s future security doesn’t just lie in the skies or across its borders—it lies beneath the waves. Newfoundland and Labrador, long defined by its connection to the North Atlantic, is emerging as the front line in Canada’s underwater defence and surveillance revolution.

In this episode, Kraken Robotics’ David Shea reveals how cutting-edge sonar and subsea intelligence are giving Canada new eyes and ears in the ocean depths—technology once reserved for superpowers, now developed and deployed from St. John’s. And General Rick Hillier, former Chief of the Defence Staff, joins host John Stackhouse to explore why control of our underwater domain is critical to national sovereignty, Arctic readiness, and alliance security in an age of rising global tension.

Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or Simplecast

Defending the Deep: How Newfoundland Is Securing Canada’s Underwater Sovereignty

John Stackhouse: Hi, it’s John here. It seems like lately when it comes to our national priorities, Canada has been doing some pretty serious soul searching. Who are we? What do we stand for, and what do we need to do to move forward as a nation today, we’ve got some pretty special stuff to start off with because when you really wanna get the big picture.

John Stackhouse: Sometimes you gotta go right to the top.

Rick Hillier: Ladies and gentlemen, I’m General Rick Hillier. I spent my entire life as a soldier and retired after 35 years, three months, two days, and 14 hours. I was never so proud as when I put my uniform on with that beautiful Canadian flag on my left shoulder.

John Stackhouse: General Hillier, of course, was the chief of the defense staff of the Canadian Armed Forces from 2005 to 2008. He also helped organize Ontario’s vaccine rollout during COVID, and he spent years pushing for reforms to make the Canadian forces more effective and respected at home and abroad.

Rick Hillier: Security is the guiding principle, the pillar on which every single one of our friends and allies now operate on three sides of our great nation. We have the longest coastlines in the world. It’s a vast ocean. It’s deep. That landscape is now changing. It’s faster, it’s murkier, and we’re seeing much more traffic. And the threats that come in are more connected than in any times in our lives. We have to invest in defense and security. I think in a more serious way than we have ever done in the history of our nation.

John Stackhouse: Now, I know there are a lot of urgent issues that need our attention as Canadians, climate change, healthcare, tariffs. You might be wondering, is a stronger military really that important, at least on the scale of things we need to tackle?

Rick Hillier: This is not about becoming a military power. It’s about meeting our responsibilities as a sovereign nation, as a G seven country, as a founding member of NATO, as a founding member of the United Nations, and as a nation in the UN who brought forth the resolution to protect and say we would not stand highly by when peoples around the world were being persecuted.  The next decade will judge us by what we build, so we have to get to work.

John Stackhouse: General Hillier’s passion for this country comes through loud and clear. And when he says, get to work, you know, he means it. We’ve got a lot to do. So let’s get to it.

John Stackhouse: I’m John Stackhouse. Welcome to Disruptors the Canada Project. This season we’re taking you on a journey across the country to meet some of the visionaries who are using technology to tackle our most urgent challenges. And in the process, create a blueprint for a stronger, more competitive, more resilient Canada.  Today’s destination, Newfoundland the Rock, a granite gateway to this part of North America. Those of you who know your Canadian history know that during World War II, when Newfoundland was still a British territory. The waters around the rock were frequented by German U-boats, and in the many decades since they’ve been trespassed upon by others who use the ocean as a gateway into Canadian territory.  Today that matters more than ever. Because our national defense and our sense of sovereignty is again at a new height. Canadians are about to make the largest peacetime investment in defense in our history. Hundreds of billions of dollars will be spent over the next decade, and we have a generational choice of how to spend that money.  The threats that you might see from Signal Hill in Newfoundland today are not U-boats or even submarines. They’re cyber attacks, digital incursions, and something. Most of us never think about the cutting of underwater cables that carry the bulk of internet traffic and the digital economy. If Canadians want to stay connected to the world around us, we’re going to need to protect those waters more than ever.  In today’s episode, we’ll meet Dave Shea, the CTO of Kraken Robotics. And we’ll discover how a provinces where generations have read ocean conditions for survival is now creating the technology that lets navies see underwater threats and may just give Canada the maritime defense edge we’re going to need.

John Stackhouse: Dave, welcome to Disruptors. Oh, thanks for having me. First of all, great name for a company, especially for certain Seattle Hockey fans. Tell us a bit of the origin story of Kraken Robotics.

David Shea: When we were founding the company, our, our founder, Carl Kinney, was looking for a name. There was a lot of tech companies out in the industry, you know, digital sonar this, and electronic, underwater that.  And we were looking, really looking for something to differentiate us and to stand apart. One of his favorite novels at the time was 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea. So of course the infamous Kraken coming from that. So trying to, uh, really differentiate ourselves. We started out with the name Kraken Sonar, and then over time.

David Shea: As we kind of expanded our product portfolio, really we wanted to redefine what we were doing and be more holistic. Uh, we adopted the Kraken robotic Systems.

John Stackhouse: Dave Krakens culture is famously relentless. That’s one thing in Canada, but how does that translate into your ambition on the global stage?

David Shea: The ambition is really to be the world leader in undersea, uh, subsea and seabed intelligence. We are a highly technical focused company. One of our mantras internally is innovate or die. We truly try and drive forward technological innovation in everything that we do from in our headquarters in St. John’s, Newfoundland, and, uh, working across the world now. Built in Newfoundland, competing everywhere.

John Stackhouse: I love it. Krakens reputation really took off with a single breakthrough. It’s called synthetic aperture. Sonar. Can you walk us through that?

David Shea: So Kraken started out, our first innovative product was our synthetic aperture sonar. That’s probably what we’re best known for. That’s been our bread and butter for many years. So that’s a very high resolution seabed imaging sonar system. So much like synthetic aperture radar. It allows you to stitch together multiple pings from a sonar system and make a a one meter long sonar array look like it’s a 25 meter long sonar array. So we can image from a small underwater robot. So that allows us to generate some fantastic images of the sea floor to identify almost with optical quality, small objects. Most of our business is in mine countermeasures, mine warfare. So being able to identify these objects and really give operators Navy sailors the ability to say, yes, that’s a mine. We need to dispose of it. Or no, that’s just a piece of. Something natural that we don’t have to do anything about.

John Stackhouse: Of course, as all of us know, from taking pictures with our phones, incredible images require a steady hand, and in this case, depend on a rock steady platform. You built a custom one. To deliver that sonar, it’s called Katfish.

David Shea: The Katfish is the Kraken active tow fish, so it’s an actively stabilized towed underwater vehicle. It’s essentially an an AUV, an autonomous underwater vehicle, but without a propeller, so it’s towed from either a crude or un crewed surface vessel. It’s designed to be the optimal sonar delivery platform, so it’s a highly specialized capability built around our synthetic aperture sonar.

David Shea: So it is meant to be the most stable platform for delivering our sonar out into the field that allows us to operate the catfish, the Toad system in very high sea states. So if you’re in very rough waters, you know the ship’s bouncing around, the cable’s being pulled as the vessel’s towing it. The catfish can compensate for all of those motions. It has its own control system on board, so it’s looking ahead to see is there a bottom, is there a rock, is there a shipwreck coming up? It can also choose where it wants to be in the water column so it can optimize itself for the mission that it’s driving there and look and tell you, and it can feed back up to the surface vessel and say, Hey, I need you to give me a little more cable out. Or, Hey, I need you to pull more cable in.

John Stackhouse: What’s the competitive advantage right now, especially on the East Coast in centers like St. John’s and Halifax versus, say, a Boston or other great maritime knowledge centers that are presumably working on similar technology opportunities.

David Shea: I think one of the great advantages that they have in Newfoundland and that we’ve had starting our company there and growing our company there is the Newfoundland people.  And the Newfoundland culture. It is one, it’s a very hardy group of people. It is a challenging environment. Anyone who’s ever been there, the weather is hard. It’s hard to get into and out of, and you go out on the ocean. It is not long before you are in the middle of the North Atlantic. So it is one of the harshest climates in the world, and when we talk about hardening technology, building technology, proving that it can work, and we’ve said for many years, if we prove it can work off the coast of Newfoundland, then it can work anywhere.  And that’s a significant advantage for Newfoundland technology companies. I think one of the other core advantages we have is where in the US uh, a lot of companies and entities can rely on the defense industrial complex. They can rely on a lot of government support, a lot of government funding. You know, they have advantages there.  In Canada and in Newfoundland in particular, we don’t have the same support from the government. We don’t have the same budgets that are being poured into that, so we’re forced to. Focus on exports. So we take our technologies around the world, we take our people, our capabilities, our innovative solutions around the world, and that’s allowed us to foster relationships and really prove these technologies, prove these capabilities in other environments with other nations, with our NATO allies.

David Shea: We say many, many times when we talk about the quality of the technology that we use, if it doesn’t work, it gets left on the pier, right? When you’re out there, when you’re a war fighter, when you’re a sailor, you’re in an operational environment. You need to know that the kit that you have is gonna do the job that you need to do, because their lives very much depend on those capabilities. So that really drives us to harden these capabilities because they have to work. They have to be proven out there in the world. And we have to, you know, provide support for our customers in that way,

John Stackhouse: Technology, this advanced doesn’t happen by accident. It takes a disruptor’s mindset. Questioning assumptions that industries have lived with for decades and the stakes are real. Here’s General Rick Hillier again.

Rick Hillier: The threats are now measured and change in hours, not months or years. And the Arctic sovereignty now is not a slogan in Canada. It’s logistics and domain awareness. Which are crucial for actually securing our North and exercising our sovereignty in the Arctic. The imperative in all of our defense platform, air, land, sea, special Forces and more is simple. Build that home, build it fast, and build it with our allies. We’ve gotta invest in engineers and technology. Operators and operators on the ground because the workforce. Those men and women who will make this happen for us are the most crucial part.

John Stackhouse: For General Hillier. It’s not only a matter of sovereignty and national defense, it’s about strengthening our participation in the global economy and our ongoing ties with our allies.

Rick Hillier: You cannot join the European Club and increase our trade with them unless we have an investment in security in defense, which is much greater than what we have now. We cannot have any kind of a relationship going forward with the United States of America unless we increase our investment in defense in security. One of the great challenges, of course, is finding the companies which could produce all the things that we need for our armed forces, for our security, and for support to our allies around the rest of the world as we seek to help stabilize that international community. And therein allow us to thrive. So what do we need to do right now?  Set along a rise in demand, single, multi-year commitments that let firms invest with confidence. And that’s one of the things that’s been missing over this past decade or so. Streamline procurement. So we can test, we can fail, we can learn, and we can feel in months, not years or decades.

John Stackhouse: One thing’s clear. Canada needs capability fast, and we need to think about getting a lot more bang for our military buck. For innovators, the challenge is twofold. We need to question the premise and respect the constraints. Don’t just build the best, build what Canada and our allies can actually buy, deploy, and maintain at scale and beyond one customer.  That’s the hard leap. Turning a breakthrough into something usable and affordable across many markets.

David Shea: One of the principles behind Krakens technology development was commercialization of high-end, high quality military technologies, but at a price point, at a cost point where they are commercially relevant.  We wanted to build things that are accessible, that are available, not these bespoke, highly specialized unicorn solutions that are being built traditionally in the defense space. Develop technologies that can be used by the military, but they’re built for a commercial application that allows us an export opportunity. So when you have dual use in the context of export control, it means we can sell things more easily. It means I can sell a device, not just holding my breath, waiting for a Navy to buy one of these things, but in the meantime, I can sell 4, 5, 6, 10 of them too. Commercial survey companies, offshore energy companies, I can sell them to commercial habitat mapping or Ocean Geographic research.

John Stackhouse: General Hillier would concur with this approach. By the way, we asked him how he thought military spending should break down. And here’s what he said.

Rick Hillier: The vast majority of the investment can be used in dual use technologies. A drone is equally good for sussing out force fires or wildfires, and how we can prevent, and how we can fight, and how we can recover from them as it is for flying in hostile territory.

John Stackhouse: Dual use technology can of course, widen the market and speed adoption. You’re not relying on one order, one purchaser or one application. But it can also get complicated in a hurry with multiple demands on a single technology. What are some of the smarter ways to invest so that we’re both learning and moving at the speed that the market demands?

David Shea: The challenge that we have is really one of risk tolerance. We are focused so much on compliance because we’re so afraid to take risk, and in this time, you must go fast. You must take risks. You must be willing to allow some of those things to fail, and we learn from failure. We learn more from failure sometimes in engineering and in science and r and d than we do from success.

David Shea: If you build something and it fails, it breaks, it implodes. As an engineer, you don’t get to ignore it, then you have to explain what happened. You spend time analyzing it, understanding it, really digging into the core principles there, and that helps inform the next version, the next phase. From the procurement side, we need to be willing to spend money on things that might not work. We need to be willing to, to take some of those risks on the financial side and on the technological side,

John Stackhouse: And according to both Dave and to General Hillier. As a country, we’ve gotta get faster and bolder in the development of new defense technologies.

Rick Hillier: The clock is ticking in Ukraine right now. Every three months, a new generation of drones is introduced into the conflict.  We’ve got to be able to match those timelines. If we are gonna be serious about our defense insecurity with our allies.

David Shea: The best time to invest in that defense industry would’ve been, you know, 20 years ago, 30 years ago. The second-best time to invest into it is today. So if we want to have these capabilities going forward into the future, if we want to be able to secure our own national security, protect our own borders, and know what’s going on in our waters, in our coastline, in our airspace, we really have to be fostering that development in that capability.

John Stackhouse: If we get this  right five years from now, what does Newfoundland look like as a defense tech center?

David Shea: I think that Newfoundland is uniquely positioned both geographically and economically and technologically to be a potential hub for this type of defense technology development. We are positioned out in the North Atlantic. We have access to amazing testing grounds, very challenging testing grounds, which is exactly what we need to harden these technologies. We have an enormous number of highly motivated, very intelligent, very capable people. We have great academic institutions for training the next generation of, of engineers, technologists, scientists, and we have a, a motivation. The Newfoundland people have, have gone through a number of challenges historically from the cod moratorium to the collapse in oil prices. And the Newfoundland people are, are highly resilient and they are motivated to develop new capabilities and export them onto the world stage. So well said.

John Stackhouse: Dave.Thanks for being on Disruptors.

David Shea: Oh, well, thank you very much for having me

John Stackhouse: Standing on Signal Hill, you realize something profound about this place. For over a century, this has been where new technologies often first touched North America. Take for example, Marconis Wireless Signal in 1901. Or radar systems during the Second World War and now some of the world’s most advanced underwater detection systems.

John Stackhouse: In a world where underwater cables carry our digital economy and Arctic shipping lanes are opening as ice melts. The ability to see what’s happening beneath our waters isn’t just about defense, it’s about sovereignty, and it’s about economic opportunity. What Dave Shea and the team at Kraken have proven is that world-class maritime defense technology can be designed, built, and exported from Canada’s Eastern most province.

John Stackhouse: We can create so much here, especially using that maritime DNA, that comes from generations of Newfoundlanders who learn to read the ocean because getting that wrong was a matter of life and death. This is how a province that was built on reading the ocean is now teaching the world to see beneath it.

John Stackhouse: You’ve been listening to disruptors. I’m John Stackhouse. Thanks to Dave Shea of Kraken Robotics and General Rick Hillier for sharing their thoughts on national security and the future of defense technology. And thank you for joining us on this part of our journey across Canada. And stay with us for lots more ahead.

Disclaimer

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By Jordan Brennan, Head of RBC Thought Leadership

There was a volley of compliments, smiles and backslaps between Donald Trump and Mark Carney during their meeting earlier this week, with the U.S. President telling reporters that Canada was going to walk away “very happy.” But optimism had come crashing down by the next day, with the U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick telling a Toronto audience that “car assembly is going to be in America and there is nothing Canada can do about it.”

The view from the White House is that Americans don’t need Canada to assemble their cars. It’s difficult to know what to make of Secretary Lutnick’s remarks. Is it a genuine threat or “art of the deal” bravado in which Trump asks for the sun, the moon and the stars and ends up settling for the moon? Word on the street is that President Trump doesn’t like being told “America needs Canadian oil, steel, lumber” and so on.

A Canadian trade team remains in Washington to chase sectoral deals on steel, aluminum, energy and autos—a hallmark of what Washington now calls “managed trade.” With little material progress to date, and an American negotiating team that’s bogged down in bilateral deals with many other countries, it’s an open question if Canada will be able to secure meaningful sectoral agreements prior to the formal review of CUSMA next July.

It looks like “managed trade” is here to stay for now. But what does that mean?

In June, Trump doubled tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%, up from the 25% rate announced in February. The impact was immediate. Canada produces roughly 13 million tonnes of primary steel annually, exporting half—and nine out of every ten tonnes goes to the U.S. Those flows are now drying up.

Steel prices tell the story. The chart below shows the value of Canadian steel exports to the U.S. and U.S. steel prices, both indexed to 100 in January 2025 to simplify the comparison. In the 12 months leading up to Trump’s tariffs, Canada’s steel exports to the U.S. and American steel prices both trended downward. Then came the trade war and the two series diverged—Canadian steel exports fell off a cliff while American steel prices marched north.

The new tariffs have reignited steel price inflation. With Canadian imports throttled, American producers are facing less competition and are quietly raising prices. U.S. steel imports from Canada are down 49% while steel prices are up 17% since January.

This is the face of managed trade. It isn’t about opening markets; it’s about organizing them. Under the free-trade order of the past four decades, governments agreed to minimal barriers and let consumer preferences, technology, and competition sort out winners and losers. Managed trade flips that logic. Governments pick strategic sectors, shield them from global competition, and steer investment through tariffs, quotas, and subsidies.

For Canada, the question isn’t whether we like it—it’s how we adapt to it. Ottawa looks ready to pivot, having announced a suite of sector supports in September. We need to learn to play by the new set of rules: identify national priorities, deploy capital strategically, and make reciprocity work in our favour.

Managed trade may be messy. But in this new era, it’s the only game on the field.

  • Donald Trump wants his team to “quickly land deals” with Canada. So said Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc after the U.S. President met with Prime Minister Mark Carney in Washington. LeBlanc remains in Washington to continue trade talks.

  • China unveiled sweeping export controls on rare earths. Trump has threatened ‘massive’ tariffs on Beijing in retaliation.

  • Industry Minister Melanie Joly unveiled a three-point plan as part of an effort to counter U.S. tariffs. Itfocused on protecting jobs, creating new ones and attracting both investment and talent.

  • The U.S. has collected US$195 billion in custom duties during the 2025 fiscal year. That figure stood at US$77 billion in 2024.

  • Chips and other AI-related goods contributed nearly half of global trade growth in the first half of 2025, according to the World Trade Organization. The impact of tariffs is expected to really kick in next year—the WTO expects trade to grow a paltry 0.5% in 2026.

Mark November 5 in your diaries. That’s the day the U.S. Supreme Court will hear the case of President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The Department of Justice (DoJ) will be hoping to overturn a decision in May by the Court of International Trade that declared that Trump had overstepped IEEPA when he used the law against Canada and other U.S. trade partners.

The case combines three separate cases claiming Trump’s tariffs on Canada, China, Mexico and other trade partners are illegal. One was brought by Democratic state attorneys general, while the other two are from separate coalitions of small businesses.

Here’s what you need to know:

  • It’s “illegal”: The plaintiffs’ central argument is that the tariffs were never designed to deal with the specific U.S. grievances against Canada, Mexico and China over drug-trafficking.

  • Trump has been losing—so far: A three-judge Court of International Trade panel, a federal district judge in Washington, D.C., and the 11 active judges on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit backed the plaintiffs in a 7-4 decision. The DoJ is hoping the Supreme Court will overturn the “incoherent” rulings.

  • The Supreme Court could go either way: The wins in lower courts could be overturned. It’s a “coin flip,” according to Scott Lincicome, a trade expert with the Cato Institute.

  • The White House has many other tools: Some analysts suggest the Supreme Court could side with the lower courts as the U.S. administration has many another avenues to replace the IEEPA tariffs, such as Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.

  • Refund bonanza: If the challengers are successful, it could spark a wave of legal battle over refunds of well over US$80 billion.

The Supreme Court ruling could come by the end of the year.

Disclaimer

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The IEA has tempered Canada’s renewable energy growth forecast. The International Energy Agency’s latest report still expects Canada to add 21 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2030, almost double the growth of the previous six years, mainly in onshore wind and utility-scale solar PV. However, that’s an 11% decline from the IEA forecast from last year. Ongoing grid challenges and policy and regulatory changes in Alberta were among the key reasons for the IEA pulling back its forecast. It’s a major reversal elsewhere too, with the U.S. and China—the world’s two largest renewable energy markets—facing slower growth amid policy shifts, supply chain vulnerabilities and financing pressures.

Can Canada attract H1-B visa types that are no longer welcome in the U.S. For all the talk of Canada capitalizing on U.S.’s visa snarls to attract the world’s brightest and smartest comes a sobering stat: it takes 53 months for Canada to issue a Start-Up Visa (SUV). A new Betakit study shows that the decade-old program has been facing several challenges, while the government has also slowed the process as part of a wider immigration slowdown. Getting some of the world’s smartest climate, cleantech and innovative minds would require some quick thinking—and processing—from policymakers.

David Greybeard made Jane Goodall. The chimpanzee, with the silver facial hair, was the first animal conservationist Goodall saw using tools and eating meat—sparking a lifelong quest by the conservationist in her pursuit of a greener and richly-biodiverse Earth. She anthropomorphized animals (pointedly rejecting the established practice of using numbers to identify animals by naming Greybeard and his family). By making it personal, Goodall—who died last week, aged 91—lifted them up and, through the Goodall Institute saved countless (though not nameless) species. Goodall was ahead of the curve, but her focus on nature is finally gaining traction.

Further reading: Unearthing Value: How nature can play a critical role in pro-growth agendas – RBC

Canada’s agriculture sector has all the ingredients to be the best in the world—productive soils, temperate climate, advanced on-farm mechanization, and a growing agri-food manufacturing sector. But capitalizing on the moment, won’t be easy, according to a new RBC Thought Leadership report . The sector has struggled to attract the right mix of talent and maintain the level of investment in R&D that is required to remain a global leader.

Research by Lisa Ashton, Director of Agriculture Policy, highlights the scale of the challenge:

  • Canadian agriculture has immense potential, but the innovation curve may be slowing down. Canada is home to some of the world’s most productive soils and innovative farmers. But agriculture’s annual growth in productivity has declined to about 1% over the past decade from 2% the previous decade, suggesting that few breakthrough innovations are making it to farms.

  • The sector is not attracting enough talent. Job vacancy rates are 1.5% above the national average. Less than 1% of STEM and business graduates, who play increasingly important roles on the modern farm, are choosing occupations in agriculture.

  • The research and development system is becoming less diverse. Public investment in agriculture knowledge generation, which includes R&D, has declined by 15% since 2010. Private sector outsourced R&D to universities is down 77% over the past five years. And the number of enterprises conducting R&D in the past decade has shrunk by 29%.

  • Other countries are pulling ahead. Canada has fallen behind Australia, the U.S., Japan, and Brazil in public investment in agriculture knowledge generation. Home-grown agriculture commercialization is in a slump as the country’s trade balances grow in innovation areas including agriculture chemicals, fertilizers, and services.

  • Commercialization of agriculture solutions are headed south. Investment in American agri-food technology startups has been 22 times larger than Canada’s over the past 5 years. The outsized market for investment in the U.S. is pulling Canadian innovation south for capital, mentorship, and market application.

To address the agriculture skills gap, RBC launched an investment initiative in Winnipeg today to help cultivate the next generation of Canadian farming. Introduced alongside Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew, RBC Generate was launched with a $5 million, five-year investment in agriculture in the Prairies with plans to expand through programming delivered as part of a national movement with farmers, The Canadian Alliance for Net-Zero Agri-food (CANZA) Nature United, Sustainable Food Systems for Canada (SF4C) and Indigenous sustainable farming initiatives.

NUCLEAR

RBC Thought Leadership’s Vivan Sorab moderated a panel on Tripling Nuclear Power by 2050: The Role of SMRs in Achieving Global Energy Goals at the SMR Forum in Edmonton last week.

Joined by Atkins Realis Carl Marcotte, Terrestrial Energy’s William (Bill) Smith, GE Vernova Hitachi Nuclear Energy’s Lisa McBride, and George Christidis from the Canadian Nuclear Association, the panel explored the role of SMRs and Canada’s advantages. Here are some of the key takeaways:

  • Collaboration is Canada’s competitive advantage: Ontario has taken the lead, commencing construction of the G7’s first grid scale SMR, and has brought together government, utilities, the Canadian nuclear supply chain, and academics to build Canada’s first new nuclear plant in 3 decades. As provinces outside of Canada’s existing nuclear provinces consider nuclear for the first time, building on this collaboration will be key to success.

  • Canada must seize the opportunity: With initiatives like Canada’s SMR Roadmap and first-mover advantage on SMR construction, Canada has positioned itself as a leader in next-generation nuclear. But with competition from the U.S. and other countries heating up, Canada must act fast to maintain its lead and ensure that its SMR expertise enables energy security and decarbonization globally. More synergy between the federal and provincial governments will be critical.

  • Investment must grow: Canada’s future nuclear fleet will need new investment to sustain a growing supply chain, a next-generation workforce, and the skilled tradespeople needed to build new reactors.

  • SMRs have a big price tag. The Ontario Power Generation’s four SMRs at Darlington with a capacity of 300-magawatt are expected to cost $20.9 billion. That compares to the 377-megawatt natural gas-fired power station in Saskatchewan carrying a price tag of $825 million. While SMRs can have geostrategic value, they will still need to compete with gas, hydro and bigger nuclear plants to attract capital.

  • Indigenous communities are front and centre: New nuclear projects will not succeed without placing indigenous communities at the forefront. Engagement must be early and projects must enable indigenous participation and equity.

Curated by Yadullah Hussain, Managing Editor, RBC Climate Action Institute.

Climate Crunch would not be possible without John Stackhouse, Jordan Brennan, John Intini, Farhad PanahovLisa AshtonShaz MerwatVivan SorabCaprice Biasoni, Lavanya Kaleeswaran and Joelle Schonberg .

Have a comment, commendation, or umm, criticism? Write to me here (yadullahhussain@rbc.com)

Climate Crunch Newsletter

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  • Canadian agriculture has immense potential but an innovation drain is slowing it down. Canada is home to some of the world’s most productive soils and innovative farmers. But agriculture’s annual growth in productivity has declined to about 1% over the past decade from 2% the previous decade, suggesting that few breakthrough innovations are making it to farms.

  • The sector is not attracting enough talent. Job vacancy rates are 1.5% above the national average. Less than 1% of STEM and business graduates, who play increasingly important roles on the modern farm, are choosing occupations in agriculture.

  • The research and development system is becoming less diverse. Public investment in agriculture knowledge generation, which includes R&D, has declined by 15% since 2010. Private sector outsourced R&D to universities is down 77% over the past five years. And the number of enterprises conducting R&D in the past decade has shrunk by 29%.

  • Other countries are pulling ahead. Canada has fallen behind Australia, the U.S., Japan, and Brazil in public investment in agriculture knowledge generation. Home-grown agriculture commercialization is in a slump as the country’s trade balances grow in innovation areas including agriculture chemicals, fertilizers, and services.

  • Commercialization of agriculture solutions are headed south. Investment in American agri-food technology startups has been 22 times larger than Canada’s over the past 5 years. The outsized market for investment in the U.S. is pulling Canadian innovation south for capital, mentorship, and market application.

Canada’s agriculture sector has all the ingredients to be the best in the world—productive soils, temperate climate, advanced on-farm mechanization, and a growing agri-food manufacturing sector. The size of the opportunity for Canada really comes into focus when you consider the scale of production as a breadbasket to the world, rapid development of digital tools, which are transforming every aspect of farming, and growing access to expand in high-potential export markets, most notably in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia.

Capitalizing on this moment, however, won’t be easy. Productivity has been steadily declining in recent years.1 And the sector has struggled to attract the right mix of talent and maintain the level of investment in R&D that is required to remain a global leader. Addressing these challenges as the sector undergoes a generational shift is not only essential for strengthening the resilience and competitiveness of Canadian agriculture but also for advancing the country’s broader pro-growth ambitions. It can unlock new economic opportunities, keep innovation within Canada’s borders, and position the country as a global leader in sustainable, high-quality agri-food production. But Canada needs a gameplan. One that starts with a strategy that sets the next generation of agriculture leaders up for success.

The Canadian agriculture sector needs more diverse, highly qualified talent to innovate. Job vacancy rates in the sector have been, on average, 1.5% higher than national vacancy rates over the past 10 years.2 And it’s only getting worse. The Canadian Agricultural Human Resource Council estimates that the sector’s domestic labour gap could grow to more than 100,000 by 2030.3 And that’s before 40% of Canadian farmers hit retirement age by 2033.4 Not everyone will call it quits, of course, but there is no doubt that the sector is on the verge of a massive shift.

From a technological standpoint, it already is. Advanced technology—automated tractor steering and animal feeding, robotic milkers, and GIS for soil mapping—is commonplace on today’s Canadian farms. And it’s big business. The number of farmers reporting annual revenues over $1 million has grown year-over-year since 2015, up 67% in 2023.5

Automation demands diversified skills: Farmers remain the cornerstone of the sector, but the industry needs new skills to embrace the technological revolution that’s underway. All kinds of professions—from engineers and data scientists to marketers and business administrators—play crucial roles. The Conference Board of Canada revealed that 1 in 3 jobs in agriculture could be automated in the next decade.6 This suggests an opportunity to mitigate the projected exponential growth in the on-farm labour gaps, but demands more STEM-trained talent applying their expertise to agriculture.

And yet, attracting diverse, highly qualified talent, has proven challenging.

The talent pool is shrinking: In 1931, 1 in 3 Canadians were part of the farm population; in 2021, it was 1 in 61—or 1.6% of the country’s population.7 While a testament to advances in production systems and technology, it is also a barrier to attracting talent. While younger generations in the farm population are more likely drawn to agriculture careers, there’s a need to attract a new talent pool. But many Canadians with engineering, business and computer science degrees are unaware that the sector needs their skills. If Canadians are not exposed to, for example, how engineering, business and computer science is applied to the agriculture sector via robotics, the operating of multi-million-dollar farming businesses or creating soil-health monitoring software, it is unlikely those with that skillset will consider growing their careers in the sector.

For proof, look no further than postsecondary enrollment. Agriculture and natural resources are the second smallest field of study in Canada, only ahead of personal improvement and leisure.8 And those with agriculture-focused diplomas and degrees in the workforce are concentrated in general agriculture and production (32%), horticulture business and services (19%), veterinary technician, administration, and medicine (18%) and food, plant and animal sciences (18%).9

Agriculture grads are not landing in increasingly influential professions such as policy, data, trades and finance. These occupation fields have an important role in managing risks for agriculture but less than 1.5% in each field have some form of agriculture-focused post-secondary training.10 That’s a missed opportunity for entrepreneurial activity in applying data and computer scientist, finance, and trade technician skills to unlock new ways to approach farm management, automation, and financial capital in agriculture.

Creating more experiential and workplace learning opportunities for students is one way to break down silos when it comes to fields of study, attract those from outside of agriculture disciplines, and build up Canada’s agriculture talent pool.  

Collaboration across faculties on college and university campuses might be one place to start to offer students more diverse courses and experiences that are not conventionally born from agriculture departments. For example, Olds College, a uniquely agriculture focused institute in Alberta, offers programs in digital agriculture that includes a wide range of courses, including plant science and data management and analytics. Creating cross-disciplinary hubs also provide a centralized place to expose students to new skills and tools like the University of Guelph’s AI for Food, an AI and data hub for agri-food.

But to truly advance student exposure, non-agriculture institutions should consider doing more to connect students to career opportunities in agriculture. This requires fostering academic and industry relationships that could be catalyzed by non-agriculture academics attending existing agriculture conferences that typically only attract delegates from within the sector to learn about the opportunities for their students.

Curating workplace placements in agriculture would give students not enrolled in agriculture degrees a first-hand look at the sector’s career path potential. Greater work placement opportunities require greater engagement from the sector, which is important especially important at a time when disruptive technologies like AI are reducing entry level jobs. Sector engagement could build upon successful programs like the Youth Employment and Skills Program (YESP). Training and youth experience programs like YESP could also consider developing STEM, business or sustainability recruiting streams for youth that directly respond to skills demanded in the sector.

CASE STUDY

Sustainable Food Systems for Canada’s (SF4C) approach is leveraging a network of education institutions to deliver experiential learning for the next generation.

Kick-started by a federal research grant, SF4C is an agri-food training-and-innovation platform designed to connect learners inside and outside of agriculture fields of study and occupations to agri-innovation skills that the sector needs to grow. Launched in 2025, the pan-Canadian network includes 13 universities and colleges, Indigenous organizations, incubators, and industry innovation groups to offer the following:

  • Skills: Training of thousands of highly skilled, job-ready professionals by offering workplace experience and interdisciplinary training in agri-food innovation through upskilling platforms like micro-credentials.

  • Collaboration: Enabling cross-sectoral partnerships by creating a one-stop shop for participants to engage and use experiential learning and collaboration spaces that attract stakeholders for hackathons, pitch contests and design jams.

  • Mentoring: Reduces the “valley of death” in agri-food innovation by preparing start-ups for already-existing incubator and accelerator programs. Provides mentorship, connections to funding opportunities, and commercialization support to would-be entrepreneurs as they prepare to raise funds and pitch incubators and accelerators.

The network approach is pooling resources to reduce duplication in Canada’s agri-food training and is working to provide Canadians with real world experiences in agriculture.

Canadian agri-food R&D has sparked innovations that have reached billions: the Spartan apple, canola, and Yukon Gold potatoes, to name a few. It’s also made the country a global leader in transformative development such as greenhouse tomato production, animal genetics and welfare, and largescale grain production. But dwindling investment in R&D and roadblocks across the innovation pipeline has diminished the sector’s competitive edge. As a result, startups are leaving Canada, often going to the U.S., for funding and to test their innovations. And multinational agribusinesses are moving their R&D investments aboard.

Agriculture knowledge is in freefall: Investment in R&D is critical to sparking innovation and attracting talent. Canada’s federal, provincial, and territorial governments have boosted investment by $500 million for the current agriculture policy framework, Sustainable Canadian Agriculture Partnership (SCAP) (2023-2028), which is a five-year $3.5 billion funding pack. Still, Canada’s public investment in R&D has been in decline. According to OECD, agriculture knowledge generation has dropped by 15% over 10 yearsa.11 Meanwhile, Australia, Brazil, and the U.S. have seen an uptick in public spending. Canada’s federal investment in agriculture science and innovation is projected to decline even further, down 12% between now and 2027.12 These cuts challenge the government’s ability to participate in networks of R&D institutes and build impactful public-private partnerships.

Government support for commercializing R&D in agriculture is shrinking under its science and innovation portfolio. AgriInnovate, the federal program for targeted agriculture commercialization, has contracted 42% from $165 million (2013–2018) to $95 million (2023–2028).13

Private funding is changing: There is also a growing divide between industry and academia, as businesses have reduced their outsourced R&D funding to universities. And private investment for in-house research is also changing. While Canadian-owned agriculture companies continue to increase in-house R&D investment, up from $101 million in 2018 to $120 million in 2023, international companies investing in in-house agriculture R&D in Canada dropped from $60 million in 2018 to $40 million in 2023.14

Strong innovation hubs are often defined by clusters of universities, colleges, businesses and governments that collaborate along the innovation cycle—from idea generation to growth.15 In Canada, the prospects of building these hubs for agriculture are deteriorating, with the number of enterprises conducting agriculture-focused R&D down 29% over the past 10 years.16

Canada is not the first place innovators trial solutions: Over the past decade, Canada has fallen from third among all countries in agri-food technology investment value to tenth.17 18 Canada has the tools to fast-track R&D commercialization, but they are being under-utilized. These include mechanisms like the Canadian Intellectual Property Office (CIPO)’s Green Technologies Program, which can be used to position Canada as a strong competitor in agriculture technology. While this program’s utilization remains low, patents have a higher grant rate of 95% relative to 69% for standard patent applications.19 This is a potential competitive advantage for Canada in agriculture technologies that contribute to positive environmental outcomes as the United States Patent and Trademark Office terminates its Climate Change Mitigation Pilot Program. Yet, Canada has a steep hill to climb, as it’s not in the top five countries for filing patents in the top agriculture technology subdomains: Pest and disease management, crop adaptation and genetics, smart farming (e.g., sensors), livestock management, and mapping and imagery.20 Canada’s time to market for agriculture innovations would need to be addressed to attract more investment and Canada-based R&D, as Canada’s trade deficit across pesticides and agriculture chemicals has grown by 159% over the past 10 years.21

R&D incentives are not as lucrative as others in the OECD: Canada has strong tax incentives for R&D investments as a percentage of GDP, ranking 9th in the OECD. But when looking across its suite of R&D incentives, it’s lacking platforms for transformative match funding, ranking 23rd for direct R&D spending as a percentage of GDP among OECD nations.22 Programs that have cost-share funding opportunities for R&D and commercialization exist, including AgriScience and AgriInnovation. But generally, budget cuts, inefficiencies in program delivery, and some mismatch between research priorities and industry demand, risk underdelivering innovation.23

Foster an outcome-driven approach to boosting private demand for Canada-made agriculture R&D and commercialization. One option is to prioritize agriculture as a pilot sector under the forthcoming Canada Innovation Corporation (CIC). Prioritizing agriculture, which has a clear problem in innovation characterized by lacking R&D spending and commercialization, could be a business case for the rest of Canada on how to streamline and reorientate a sector’s approach to R&D to focus on delivering applicable results for the industry and the wider economy. 

CASE STUDY

GrowAG, AgriFutures’ digital platform is a centralized place to connect and invest in agri-innovation projects in Australia.

AgriFutures Australia is a centralized research and development institute with a mandate to leverage public and private funding—combining funds from industry taxes, government contributions, and private investments. It has a distinct mandate to serve the R&D needs of both specific levied industries and entirely new agricultural sectors. The unique positioning allows it to act as a catalyst for future industry growth, a function that is often fragmented across multiple organizations in other countries.

AgriFuture’s GrowAG platform helps address fragmentation in agriculture innovation by creating a one-stop shop of research projects, funding opportunities, startups, and new collaboration opportunities – streamlining access to opportunities for those looking to partner in R&D, commercialization and company growth.

The GrowAG platform is an innovation “gateway” that not only provides a clearing house service for domestic investors, researchers and start-ups but it also provides global users with a clear path to identify opportunities to invest in Australia’s agriculture innovation.

The people that make up Canada’s agriculture sector are champions of it. But the sector needs to raise its profile to emerge as a viable and desirable place to innovate and build careers.

Boosting engagement among young Canadians could give the agriculture sector a jolt of innovation as new blood enters the workforce and positions the sector as a renewed international force in agriculture talent, ideas and production.

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