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RBC Thought Leadership Archives for lavanyakaleeswaran

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As debate continues over the costs of building Alberta’s proposed West Coast Oil Pipeline (WCOP), there is a question of how Canadian heavy crude can compete with the Persian Gulf and ever-rising Venezuelan grades that already serve the Asian market. There are several key elements that need to hold for the economics of the proposed pipeline to work—and none are guaranteed.

A Canadian barrel costs roughly twice what a Gulf barrel costs to land at the same refinery—the arithmetic of being 1,200 kilometres from tidewater. On delivered cost alone, any case for the pipeline must explain what offsets a gap that wide.

A Competitive Oil Market

Heavy sour crude delivered to Northeast Asia (C$/per barrel)

WCSArab HeavyMerey
Delivered costs (C$/b)(CA)(Gulf)(VZ)
Field to tidewater$9-$11$2-$3$4-$6
Freight to NE Asia$4-$6$3-$4$4-$5
Delivered, all-in cost$13-$17$5-$7$8-$11

Notes: Persian Gulf and Venezuelan field-to-tidewater costs are RBC Thought Leadership estimates. Western Canadian Select (WCS) costs are modelled off Trans Mountain’s shipping costs to China from its Westridge Marine Terminal.  Freight rates are mid-cycle estimates.

The new pipeline does not need to follow the same path that unfolded for the Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMX), i.e., cost overruns that were part passed onto shippers.

Pipeline Economics

West Coast Oil Pipeline (WCOP) vs. Trans Mountain (TMX) financial metrics

WCOPWCOPTMX
Pipeline Metrics (C$)LowHighActual
Capacity, 000 bpd1,0001,000890
Capital cost, $ billion$35.2$43.7$35.3
Capital cost, $ per bpd$35,200$43,700$59,831
Pipeline toll, $/bTBDTBD$9-$11
Freight to Asia, $/b$2-$3$2-$3$4-$6

Notes: The TMX toll reflects the revised rates as disclosed in the July 7 submission to the Canada Energy Regulator ($9.20-$11.05 per barrel). The TMX capital cost per barrel is calculated based on expansion volumes only (590,000 bpd). Freight rates are mid-cycle (normalized). All dollar figures are quoted in Canadian dollars.

The West Coast Oil Pipeline’s transportation costs should hopefully be less expensive than TMX, given the use of a larger line along a ‘de-risked’ corridor, and loading supertankers (Very Large Crude Carriers) directly rather than the mid-sized Aframaxes. The challenge would be to keep the project on budget. The $35-$44 billion estimated price tag for the project excludes escalation and financing—key concerns from a competitiveness standpoint.

Western Canadian Select (WCS) trades well under global benchmarks, much of it due to captivity (as it’s one and only market is the U.S.) rather than quality. While a cheaper price improves competitiveness (buyers get a similar barrel for less cost), it is less than ideal for producers and getting oil to tidewater lets the barrel escape this structural disadvantage. The Alberta government estimates WCOP could narrow the price gap between WCS and the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate by up to US$3 per barrel. For reference, WCS has historically traded at a US$10-15 discount to WTI, but has at times gone in excess of US$20 per barrel.

Buyers are hoping Canadian crude is more reliable. Cheap Persian Gulf barrels carry a Strait of Hormuz risk, while Venezuelan barrels are dependent upon an extended economic reconstruction. Canada’s oil carries neither risk, with Asian buyers willing to pay for that security.

Producer commitments are less a question of Asian demand—TMX’s fill rate suggests the demand is clearly there, but cost overrun concerns need to be alleviated to ensure the West Coast project’s competitiveness.

The trade case rests on several conditions: the project is built on time and on budget, with a discount that is more structural in nature rather than subject to periodic events, and a reliability premium outlast recent disruptions. If these conditions hold, the prize is significant: roughly $20 billion in incremental annual exports (based on 1 million barrels per day at 90% utilization, and a WCS price of $60 per barrel), along with a potential US$3-per-barrel tightening in a spread across future bitumen production of between 4.5 and 5 million barrels per day by 2035, worth about $5 billion annually. Whether Canada should make this bet with public money is a fiscal judgment, particularly given the country’s recent history with pipeline development, but one that seems increasingly likely with each passing day.

–By Shaz Merwat, Energy Policy Lead

RBC brought together more than 500 business, government and policy leaders last month for the U.S.-Canada Summit, in partnership with the Eurasia Group. Ministers, governors, ambassadors, economists, investors—and an astronaut—gathered in one room to talk about the future of the world’s most prosperous relationship.

Donald Trump threatens to cut off trade to Spain

  • The U.S. President issued the threat over the European country’s refusal to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. The U.S. administration is now preparing a list of Spanish goods to potentially embargo.

Canada tells the UAE it’s not ready for an inflow of cash

  • The federal government’s Major Projects Office told an official UAE delegation that it was too soon to inject billions of dollars into Canada, as projects are still in early stages. Prime Minister Mark Carney landed a $70 billion investment commitment from the UAE last year, but that capital has yet to be deployed.

Brussels launches probe into imports of Chinese duck

  • The European Commission has launched an anti-dumping investigation targeting Chinese Pekin duck, the breed used to make the iconic Peking duck dish. The latest dispute highlights growing trade tensions between the EU and China.

Global trade and economic groups warn of uncertainty

  • The heads of major global organizations—the International Energy Agency (IEA), International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank Group (WBG) and World Trade Organization (WTO)—met to discuss the impact of the war in the Middle East. While they noted that the global economy has been “broadly resilient,” they warned that uncertainty remains high and that the impacts of the war may linger.

U.S. trade deficit widens, as does Canada’s surplus

  • The U.S. trade deficit increased sharply in May, ballooning to a 14-month high despite tariffs on imports. Canada, meanwhile, saw its trade surplus widen to a four-year high in May, with exports of metals and energy increasing during the war in the Middle East.

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While the U.S. and Mexico were kicking off bilateral talks on CUSMA (and announced two more sets of meetings in June and July, without a mention of Canada), Prime Minister Mark Carney was in New York making the country’s case to a business audience.

As the U.S. pivots to bilateral talks in its effort to reshape North American trade dynamics, we examine how Canada and Mexico have fared as the U.S. squeezed both with tariffs and other economic pressures.

Mexico’s exports to the U.S. soared, Canada’s slipped in 2025

Annual U.S. imports from Canada and Mexico, billion US$

  • Despite one of the lowest effective tariff rates of ~3-4%, thanks to CUSMA shielding ~90% of Canadian exports, the U.S. imported nearly US$30 billion less goods from Canada—the second largest drop among U.S. trading partners behind only China.

  • Canada’s loss was almost identical to Mexico’s gain. It remains America’s largest import source and has extended its lead on the rest of the pack.

  • Both Canada and Mexico were at the epicenter of the tariff war, yet the divergence came down to the product mix, and new emerging trends, such as AI.

    Tariff-hit sectors squeezed both countries, but AI lifted Mexico

    Change in imports compared to 2024 by product categories, billion US$

  • Canada’s losses were broad-based. U.S. purchases from Canada fell across product categories that accounted for 84% of all imports from Canada. Lower oil volumes along with soft oil prices in 2025 accounted for a third of the drop in imports, with auto, steel and aluminum extending the decline by nearly as much.

  • Like Canada, Mexico reeled from the Section 232 tariffs. The U.S. imported US$13 billion less in auto and parts from Mexico, accounting for half of the decline.

  • The AI boom, however, lifted Mexico’s trade balance. The U.S. imported US$250 billion data processing units last year—almost double what it bought a year earlier—and Mexico was the single largest seller, supplying a third of that.

  • Data processing machines climbed to the top of the Mexico’s export ladder displacing passenger cars. Mexico’s share in global supply has doubled over the past two years, now supplying 18% of the US$550 billion global imports, and rapidly catching up to China and Taiwan.

    Manufacturing sector remained soft throughout 2025

    Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)

  • Canada’s manufacturing sector, which makes up a tenth of the economy, took far more than a tenth of the pain, with GDP down 2.5% in 2025, marking a third consecutive decline. The squeeze was broad-based—14 of the 18 manufacturing subsectors contracted, from transport equipment and food & beverage to chemical and metal products.

  • Both countries shed factory jobs in 2025 but things are now diverging. Canada is regaining footing on its factory floor, with PMI climbing above 50 this year—seen as a level that signals expansion driven by new orders. Mexico’s manufacturing has been trending within the contraction zone for the past 22 months, long before tariffs were introduced, and shows no signs of immediate recovery.

    U.S. tariff impact less damaging than feared for both Canada and Mexico

    Projection and actual real GDP growth for 2025

  • Doom and gloom scenarios did not materialize thanks largely to CUSMA, though tariffs shaved off about a fifth of Canada’s pre-trade war growth expectations, and over half for Mexico.

  • Resilient consumer demand and fiscal policy provided a cushion for the Canadian economy. Mexico saw the opposite trend as the government tightened its budget. Meanwhile, remittances from the U.S. dropped 4.6%, partially due to an immigration crackdown and softening household consumption.

 Farhad Panahov, Economist

For more:

One year later: How US tariffs and trade policy have reshaped the landscape – RBC Economics

One year of tariff shocks in Canada: What we learned

Brussels prepares broader measures against Chinese imports

  • The European Commission signalled it will expand the use of import quotas and safeguard tariffs across entire sectors as concerns grow over Chinese overcapacity in chemicals, metals, clean technology, and manufacturing. Industry Commissioner Stéphane Séjourné said the EU’s trade deficit with China has reached roughly €1 billion per day, with policymakers increasingly framing the issue as a threat to European industrial competitiveness.

India sends largest-ever trade delegation to Canada

  • Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal led an Indian trade and investment delegation as Ottawa and New Delhi look to accelerate free trade negotiations and target $50 billion in bilateral trade by 2030, up from roughly $10 billion today. 

Shipping industry warns of rising costs and capacity constraints

  • Global shipping executives told the World Trade Organization that disruptions in the Gulf region and other maritime chokepoints are driving up costs across supply chains, while alternative transport corridors face growing capacity constraints. Industry leaders noted that a single container ship can carry the equivalent of roughly 70 freight trains.

ECB warns geopolitics are becoming a financial stability risk

  • The European Central Bank warned that the Iran conflict, volatile U.S. trade policy, and growing geoeconomic fragmentation are increasing risks to global financial stability. The Bank cautioned that markets may be underestimating the potential economic impact of prolonged energy disruptions, elevated sovereign debt levels, and renewed inflationary pressures stemming from geopolitical shocks.

Thomas Ashcroft, Global Issues Policy Lead

Disclaimer

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Canada has a scaleup problem. We create entrepreneurs, but too many of them feel they need to leave to build world-class companies.

Fred Lalonde is one of the exceptions. He is the founder and CEO of Hopper, the Canadian travel-tech company that uses data, prediction and fintech to help travellers book with more confidence.

Now Lalonde is bringing that same ambition to Deep Sky, a Canadian carbon removal company.

In this episode of Disruptors, recorded in front of a live audience, John Stackhouse speaks with Fred about what it takes to build and scale from Canada – and why the country needs more founders willing and able to do it here.

In this episode, you’ll learn:

  • How Hopper became one of Canada’s leading tech success stories

  • Why Fred thinks entrepreneurs better be motivated by building, not just money

  • Why AI, energy and advanced manufacturing are central to Canada’s next growth chapter

  • What it takes to build a world-class company without leaving Canada

Fred Lalonde is a Canadian entrepreneur, founder and CEO of Hopper, and co-founder of Deep Sky. In the episode, John Stackhouse frames Fred as one of Canada’s original disruptors, and Fred describes his path from teenage hacker to entrepreneur.

Hopper is a travel platform for flights, hotels, homes and car rentals. Hopper says 120 million travellers use its platform to plan trips, and the company is known for using data and prediction tools to help consumers decide when to book.

Deep Sky is a Canadian carbon removal company co-founded by Fred Lalonde. The company is building infrastructure to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

The episode is about Canada’s need to build more globally competitive companies from home. Leaders Fund and Specter found that in 2024, the U.S. produced 45x more high-potential startups than Canada, and nearly half of Canadian founders who raised more than US$1M were based in the U.S.

Fred says good entrepreneurs are motivated by building – by making something, putting it into the world and ideally changing it. He also stresses how hard the founder journey is, including the long timelines and high failure rate.

When asked about Canada’s growth challenge, Fred points to AI, climate and energy, and automated manufacturing resilience as areas where the country should focus.

RBC plans to deploy up to C$1 billion over the coming years to form a growth fund and make equity investments in support of homegrown Canadian companies. 

The Canadian Unicorn Who Stayed

SPEAKERS

Frederic Lalonde, John Stackhouse

John Stackhouse 00:00:10

Hi, it’s John here. If you’ve been listening to Disruptors over the years, you know that Canada has a problem. We are not the land of unicorns. Sure, we create a lot of companies, but as we’ve heard over and over and over again, many of our entrepreneurs, far too many, feel they have to leave Canada to create and scale a world-class business. There are, of course, exceptions and we’ve profiled a lot of them on Disruptors and one of the most impressive is our guest today, Fred Lalonde. Fred is the epitome of a Canadian unicorn. He has built a billion-dollar company here in Canada and chosen to stay in Canada, not just to continue to grow that company, but to launch more companies with even more ambition. It’s the sort of spirit many Canadians feel and we’ve got to do a lot more to help that spirit flourish right here in Canada.

If you don’t know Fred Lalonde’s story, it’s a pretty good one. He started in the digital economy as a hacker, selling pirated software on the school yard, then dropped out of school and created a solution allowing third-party hotel booking sites to integrate with hotels. He sold it to a young company called Expedia. Next, he built Hopper, another travel site that became that unicorn, and now Fred’s taking the same ambition to the fight against climate change in building a carbon removal company called Deep Sky. So when it comes to building world-class companies and scaling them here in Canada, Fred Lalonde is definitely worth listening to and that’s the conversation we want to bring to you today.

This episode was recorded in front of a live audience and it has the energy of one. Fred is funny, blunt, and occasionally dark, but underneath that is the clarity you so often find in builders who know how to create and also know how to live with failure. As Fred explains, he doesn’t manage disruption, he assumes it. We cover a lot of ground, AI, energy, manufacturing, and Canada’s stubborn reluctance to scale. That’s the challenge that we all have to take on.

Here’s my conversation with Fred Lalonde.

Fred was one of the original Disruptors. I think we’ve had you on the stage a couple of times talking over the years. It’s always great to be with you. We’re going to talk about a whole range of stuff, but Fred, let’s start with you. Amazing life history, lifelong hacker. Grew up in a household with more computers than I think you could count. I’m not going to talk about how you learned your way to hack into Bell phone systems, but that’s a whole different story. I think you once called yourself to the Global Mail no less as unemployable. So that’s a great thing to have in your Google search. Fred Lalonde, unemployable. And you’ve had a couple of near death experiences with companies and yet here you are thriving more than ever. Tell us a bit about you. What is it about you that just keeps you coming back in the face of all that has put you down, pushed you back, tried to keep you down over the years?

Fred Lalonde 00:03:22

Yeah. I mean, I ask myself that same question every day. The term is serial entrepreneur and not for nothing, it’s like you just can’t help yourself. You just keep going and going. So everything that you said is true. I dropped out of school when I was 19. I was a hacker. I’m a child of the ’80s. So I learned when I was 14 that I could copy video games. Some people are old enough to remember floppy disks. And so in high school, I made $16,000 selling these in the schoolyard. I don’t know why parents never wondered where the money came from. And of course, the next step from a hacker is being an entrepreneur. It’s the legal version of what hackers do. It is true. I’ve never had a paycheck, never had a mortgage. I’m functionally ineligible for credit cards. I learned this because you’re now my wealth manager, and they’re like, “Oh, you don’t have a credit card.”

John Stackhouse 00:04:16

Did they turn you down for a credit card?

Fred Lalonde 00:04:18

No, they just said I had no credit history, which is technically true. But the point is I like building things and it’s like a compulsion. I spend a lot of time and as I’m getting older, every year I try to do one board where I find some smart kid in Canada and I kind of help him navigate through all the crap that I wish I knew when I was 28 trying to do this. And functionally people come to me, “I want to start my company.” It’s always the same question, which is like, do you really need to do this? Is this some visceral thing that drives you? And I don’t mean making money because somebody comes to me and says, “Hey, I want to do this.” And you can kind of tell they’re motivated by money.

I’m like, “Dude, there’s a lot of ways to make money. I can give you 10 things because this is really, really hard. And actually you’re going to build for seven, eight, 10, 15 years now and you have a nine out of 10 chance of getting nothing at the end.” And people don’t understand how hard it is, how often you have to fail. So it takes a special disposition and I think good entrepreneurs are motivated by building. You don’t really care about the money or anything else. It’s just about making something, putting it into the world and ideally changing it. People don’t realize the failure ratio, like how often you’re going to be in trouble.

John Stackhouse 00:05:32

Who did you learn the most from in the early goings?

Fred Lalonde 00:05:42

So I was super lucky. When we sold to Expedia, I had no idea. The CEO of Expedia was Eric Blatchford. He grew up in Montreal and he was at some McGill football thing and he walked in, like in the movies, and then a month later he’d bought my company. I was 28. And then they brought me over to Seattle because they had integrated my company and everything. And there’s a book called Barbarians Led by Bill Gates. If you’ve ever read, it’s not very good, but it talks about the ’90s where Bill Gates had these guys that worked for him, and what they would do is pretend to go acquire a company and then they would basically steal the IP and Microsoft would replicate it. And it’d gotten so bad that venture capitalists would not back anything… They would check with Microsoft first before they invested in your company. It was crazy.

Then at some point the government talked about breaking Microsoft and they stopped. So there was 13 people that were in charge of this and the guy that was renowned for being the killer was called Lloyd Frink. He’s in the book. That was my boss at Expedia. Let’s say you were having a conversation with him and you bored him, he would leave mid-sentence. It was fascinating. And the other guy that started Expedia is Rich Barton. He’s built Zillow since. So I completely lucked out. I ended up working for those guys for four years. That’s actually the only time I didn’t sign my own paycheck. And today, if I had to give back that early money I made or the knowledge, I would give the money back tomorrow morning. That actually helped me understand what it was to build a really great company. So I would have to say it’s those guys.

John Stackhouse 00:07:17

What was the best lesson from those guys that helped you with future companies?

Fred Lalonde 00:07:21

It’s this thing that’s been misused. It’s attributed to Steve Jobs, but it’s actually not him. Then it gets attributed to Wayne Gretzky, but it’s actually not Wayne Gretzky. It’s Wayne Gretzky’s dad. Skate where the puck is going, not where it is. It’s actually really hard to do because you actually have to have a credible understanding of what the future is going to be like… And there’s this crazy thing and there’s no… Startup environments are the place where this is the most problematic, but it applies to a multi-hundred year old bank at the end of the day, especially in the era that we’re in now, which is the era of AI. But it’s like if you’re actually building something new, whether it’s small, big, something you run, something you’re a product and it makes sense in current day context, it’s probably not going to work. And so I’ll give you a few examples.

You will be standing in the rain in front of a completely licensed taxi that has been audited by the city and has paid a medallion and you’ll be waiting for a stranger to pick you up in a Toyota Corolla. Instead of checking into a hotel, you will prefer to stay in somebody’s spare bedroom. If I told you these things in 2010, you would’ve called me crazy. I just described Uber and Airbnb. The point is if your idea makes sense in present day context, it’s not going to work in the future, and that’s true in a normal 50-year span, like the one I’ve lived through now. But if you’re looking at what’s about to happen in AI, it’s an exponential problem at the end of the day that’s going to change completely. So that’s the main thing I picked up from those guys.

John Stackhouse 00:09:01

One of the great challenges in building a company of the visionary entrepreneur, usually the founder, and then especially as you scale, you need an operator. How have you found that balance because it’s not often the same person, one individual?

Fred Lalonde 00:09:15

Honestly, and I’ve thought about this a lot, I don’t actually believe in the founder/operator thing. It may have worked a few times, but even the ones that are known for being the highest visionary… So one of my good friends is Laurence Tosi, he was the CFO of Blackstone. He famously turned down Steve Jobs for CFO. So he knows Steve very well. Steve would know the operational details, the cost of the microchips. I have never seen a good CEO operator in a startup. I don’t know what it is to run a bank, and God help us, nobody will ever give me the opportunity to try that, but fundamentally, if you’re building something that has high velocity, high growth, lots of unknowns, you have to be able to get the big vision and the execution. And I’ve seen a few teams, but the really, really good ones are able to go all the way down, and I would argue your current CEO is one of the few that I’ve met that really, really qualifies and I think it shows in the culture of the bank.

So I actually think sometimes a team, but you kind of have to have that willingness to go all the way down to the nuts and bolts because when things are stable, it’s okay. I’ll give you my favorite example. If you work at a large organization like this one or Mitsubishi, what, maybe 5% of your company is new, like hiring spree, something like that. At Hopper for the first 15 years, 50% of the company was new. Think of that, right? It’s like your company’s constantly made of spare parts.

John Stackhouse 00:10:47

How do you manage that as a founder, you were there, you were the origin story and then you’ve got all these newcomers coming in and regenerating it. How do you kind of roll with that and let other people also take it in directions that you may not-

Fred Lalonde 00:10:59

The culture question. I’ve become convinced that culture is the only way to go. So for example, at Hopper and in our other companies, Deep Sky, the carbon removal company that you guys know well, we don’t have a traditional C-suite, we don’t have a CTO, we don’t have a CIO. We’ve gone to something called single-threaded ownership, which is an Amazon model. And so when we reached about a hundred people at Hopper, I started losing velocity. It gets harder to do stuff. Again, if you work in big companies, you know how hard it is to do stuff. And my problem at Hopper is I made no money doing the thing we did. We were selling flights, which is a really bad idea. And so I had to do a second thing and most companies don’t have that. They either do one thing, run out of money and die because it didn’t work, or they do a thing that works.

We had to find other things. And so what made us profitable is our financial products or fintech, blah, blah, blah. But before I could get the company to do more than one thing, it was attacking itself. So I had to design the culture. So I started reading everything I could. So Eric Schmidt wrote a book called “How Google Works.” There’s a boring long book, but there’s a children’s book. This is crazy. It’s illustrated. It’s like for five years old. I really recommend this to everybody and he explained how Google worked when he took it over from Larry and Sergey. Reed Hastings wrote a lot about this. Then I found Jeff Bezos’ shareholder letters. And if you have not done this, every year since starting Amazon, he writes. You should read this. It’s a whole insight into his mind. And I realized something fundamental.

The first thing is culture is not what you say. It’s not the poster on the wall. It’s not what your HR department does. We don’t actually have those, but if I had an HR department. It’s actually how you act and what you reward and what you punish. People will act according to what you do and what you say good or bad to somebody. And most people don’t realize how important that is. Everything’s being observed when you’re in a position of leadership. And so then I realized something really fundamental and this is actually why we’re successful. We’d be out of business if I hadn’t figured this out, I’m 100% convinced of it. Most companies get together at some point. Somebody tells them, “You need to define your culture.” Get in a room and you say, “Here are our values,” and that’s it. The really good companies, the amazing ones, they did something different. The founder at some point said, “What kind of company do we need to be for our customers?”

And so Google that was making all of its money on one algorithm, put the engineers in charge, right? Netflix, because streaming kind of didn’t work, it just wouldn’t start. If you guys are, again, old enough to remember this. So they put the product people in charge and Amazon super interestingly realized that they had no network effect where Google had the search, Facebook is a network, blah, blah, blah, all this kind of stuff. They put the category managers in charge and everything… I could go on for hours on this. So what I realized is companies have two types of cultures. The ones that kind of emerged because they got in a room and put a bunch of stuff on a sticker board and voted for it, and the cultures that are designed, that were built for a purpose and that purpose should be the business you’re in and where your customers need you to be. So we got to very, very simple things: move quickly, obsess on the customer and we put revenue as our core value, and people quit.

John Stackhouse 00:14:38

Revenue is your core value?

Fred Lalonde 00:14:39

Yeah. We have three core values, obsess on the customer, move quickly, make money. And you know what happened once we put revenue? We went from 10 million to three quarters of a billion where we are now. It’s declarative. It’s like a marriage. I pronounce revenue, and it happens. And that’s what a founder has to do. You have to manifest 90%.

John Stackhouse 00:15:00

And people not interested in revenue left.

Fred Lalonde 00:15:02

Yeah, exactly. And then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. You attract people that want the thing that you’ve declared. Now, whether I believe revenue is the core thing that should drive society is irrelevant because I’m here for my customers, I’m here for my investor.

John Stackhouse 00:15:16

So we’ll switch to AI, but you mentioned in passing there, you don’t have an HR department.

Fred Lalonde 00:15:21

No.

John Stackhouse 00:15:22

How does that work?

Fred Lalonde 00:15:23

You don’t need it. Sorry. Is there anybody in HR? We realize you don’t need it. Yeah, and that’s a very long-

John Stackhouse 00:15:30

But there’s lots of HR functions that you do need.

Fred Lalonde 00:15:33

No, no.

John Stackhouse 00:15:33

How do you manage it-

Fred Lalonde 00:15:34

No, actually you don’t. Have you ever read Dilbert?

John Stackhouse 00:15:38

This could be my last conversation for RBC, but I’m genuinely curious. How does that work?

Fred Lalonde 00:15:47

We don’t have functions. So what we do is my companies all work like federations of startups. So one person’s in charge of financial products, another one’s commerce. We have somebody running banking and they have full hire and fire over their entire team. The only function that’s horizontal is finance. And so at the end of the day, the short answer is if you have a problem with your paycheck, you go to finance, but we don’t have any HR. We also don’t have offices and we never meet, which is probably another whole thing that we should talk about.

John Stackhouse 00:16:14

No HR, no offices, no meetings.

Fred Lalonde 00:16:15

It’s awesome.

John Stackhouse 00:16:16

How do you exchange ideas?

Fred Lalonde 00:16:18

You actually write them down. So we’ve actually found that… And there’s actually the founder of WordPress-

John Stackhouse 00:16:25

Bezos does this too, right?

Fred Lalonde 00:16:25

Yes. It’s a Bezosian thing. He’s not the only one. Schmidt does it a lot. So the founder of WordPress… This is a big company back in the day, still pretty meaningful. They never met anybody they hired and it was by design. And the reason is he believes to this day that if I meet you, all my cognitive bias, you’re white, we’re about the same age, I’m likely to like you, all that kind of stuff. And so they did their entire interview process in writing and they actually realized they had a very low close rate. So at the end they added one step that took up a few years. They would call you and say, “Actually, it’s a real job in case you’re wondering,” because people wouldn’t think that it was a real job. And so his point is it’s very easy for somebody to trick you verbally, especially if the person has high EQ. If you really want to know how my brain works, read me, and vice versa, I should read you. So a lot of it’s writing.

And we’re global. So we have people in every country. We serve Japanese banks and all this kind of stuff. And one of the things that it let us do because we’re a written asynchronous culture, it lets us hire the best people in the world anywhere where they are. And so when the return to office happened after the pandemic, we picked up people that were leaving Google and it’s continuing to happen now that we never would have gotten. So we’ve been punching ahead of our weight class because of talent density and that is the only metric that we have, talent density, like you would if you were building a professional football team.

John Stackhouse 00:17:55

Perfect segue into the AI part of the conversation. Is AI going to get rid of all this, this human aspect?

Fred Lalonde 00:18:03

And a lot more. Yeah. So I’m going to preface this. I have a really dark view on a lot of things. In these periods where there’s extreme disruption, there’s also extreme opportunities. So I’m going to do my best to scare the crap out of you, but for as troubling as these things are, there’s actually a lot of upside. And the reason I speak this way about climate and about AI is because I fundamentally believe in first principle thinking. You have to ask why and the why of the why. That’s how you make good decisions. If you go back to the 1900s, 1905, there were about 27 million draft animals in the United States. And so there were about 95 million people. So every three humans there was a draft animal. How do we know this so specifically? It’s because this was so important that it was part of the census.

They would count the number of horses when they did the census for the people. Why? Because all transportation but also all food was produced by draft animals. And so there were horses everywhere. The first commercial vehicle, internal combustion vehicle, was sold in the US in 1886. And so if you think of it, there’s this really bizarre period between 1890 and call it 1910, 20 years, give or take, where you had a small number of internal combustion engines and you had horses everywhere. The peak horseness was around 1915. So for 25 years we kept adding horses as part of the base of the economy, even though the internal combustion engine was there. This is Vaclav Smil, by the way, How the World Really Works. I’ve stolen all this. So the role of the internal combustion engine was to completely change transportation and food production. It replaced the horse. AI replaces thinking. So what do you think is going to happen?

Make no mistake about it. If you talk to anybody who works at an AI lab that builds AI, they are not building it to make your life easier or your people’s… They’re not building it to enable you. Every time you load Claude to make a cash flow statement for one of your customers or to goof around on something, they are training the model to do it without you. This is 100% understood. Every AI engineer understands this.

John Stackhouse 00:20:41

What would you recommend/advise people in this room to talk with their teams, with their clients, and to think about themselves, about those challenges coming at us?

Fred Lalonde 00:20:50

So I think what you have to do is break apart what your team does, what your group does, what your company does into its core components, and you need to basically do what Steve Jobs did when he did the Mac. You need to start a completely shadow organization over here and only bring… Obviously this runs entirely on AI and only bring in the parts that you need assuming that AI will do everything else. And then figure out if you can… Just remove every constraint you think you have and some like the security of the bank, you don’t have a choice, try to move it to an AI-first world. And if you get something that works, raise your hand and go, “Hey guys, look at this,” and hopefully the person next to you and the one will pick up on it and improve on it.

And the people that can do that are probably the ones that are still going to have a high-paying job because it’s that creative judgment-based act that even though the AI could probably learn, it’s probably where you want to keep the human in the loop.

John Stackhouse 00:21:53

I know we’re over time, but I want to steal another minute to just get your thoughts on this growth challenge, which we’re leaning into, we’re investing in. What do you think Canada needs to come to grips with most critically to ensure we get a better trajectory of economic growth and that we help companies and entrepreneurs like you take on the world but scale a lot faster here at home than we’ve seen?

Fred Lalonde 00:22:16

You kind of have to hunker down. So if you take Canada, we’re probably the richest country in the world, just by natural resources. We’ve talked about this actually. But we’re so comfortable we don’t realize it, right? But if I was asked to figure out what to do with the bank’s fund, which again, hopefully never happens, I think it’s very, very simple. AI for sure, climate and energy, which are the same thing, and fully automated manufacturing resilience. We need to be building our own sovereign energy. We need to be dealing with our emissions. We’re not good at wind farms. We have no tech. We’re dependent on the Chinese, the Europeans. We have nothing on solar, the Chinese… Not ideal. Our nuclear program, like every program in the world is in shambles because we gave up on it. You know what we’re really good at? Really, really good at? Drilling.

And you can either drill for dead dinosaurs at about two kilometers, but you know what happens if you keep going to five, six, seven, eight kilometers, you hit heat energy, geothermal. There’s enough energy on the ball of rock that we’re living on right now that 0. 1% of it will power our civilization for two million years. And there’s actually a company in the US that figured out how to do it cheaply two months ago. So I can tell you it’d be those themes, AI, climate, energy, and manufacturing resilience.

John Stackhouse 00:23:40

And with Canadian engineers in that US company, I mean, everything you talk about is really connected to scarcity and scarcity leads to more innovation. You’re the embodiment of that and we facilitate that. So scarcity can squeeze, it can hurt, but it leads always to some kind of innovation, usually great innovations. The other thing I love that you said, Fred, is you’ll be back next year, which tells me you have hope that we’ll all be here next year. So just in the darkness, he thinks he’ll be here next year, he thinks we’ll be here next year. I’m not that smart, but I’m connecting dots to say that we got hope here. What you’re saying, Fred, is we stand a chance to be here a year from now and doing even better things.

Fred Lalonde 00:24:32

I’m actually an optimist.

John Stackhouse 00:24:33

Okay. Fred, we’re going to close there.

Fred Lalonde 00:24:37

We’ll close on this: It’s not because something is hard and the odds are not super in our favour that we shouldn’t do it, right? That’s the whole point of everything I’ve been saying.

John Stackhouse 00:24:48

Yeah. It’s like that great line in Dumb and Dumber, “What you’re telling me is we got a chance.” Fred, thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

That was Fred Lalonde, founder and CEO of Hopper, recorded in front of a live audience. I hope you’ll agree that Fred has a way of making the future seem both more alarming and more navigable than it did before you started listening. His clarion call about scaling more here in Canada also should be a message that every Canadian can take on. At RBC, we’re trying to do more with the launch of a new billion dollar platform to invest growth capital in the companies that will help Canada grow in the years and decades ahead. And right across the country, we’re seeing big investors, private companies, and ordinary Canadians all wanting to put more capital behind this country’s amazing potential. It’s not just those big projects that we hear a lot about in the news. It’s about the big ambitions of entrepreneurs who are creating companies, whether it’s in the resource sector or the digital economy that can help Canada and Canadians sell more to the world.

For more on all this, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership. You’ll find research, perspectives, and ideas to help you clarify what’s next.

And if you like this podcast, follow, like, and review us wherever you listen. This will help others find these conversations on the ideas, technologies, and entrepreneurs reshaping Canada’s economy.

I’m John Stackhouse and this is Disruptors, an RBC podcast. Thanks for listening.

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Also in this edition: The Power of Siberia 2 and implications for Canada 

A year into Prime Minister Mark Carney’s trade diversification push, global infrastructure investors are registering the signal. The Global Infrastructure Investor Association (GIIA) Spring 2026 survey—covering leading infrastructure funds across North America and Europe—ranks Canada #1 for investment attractiveness, ahead of the U.S. and Germany. It’s the first time Canada has finished atop the annual survey. Here are the highlights: 

  • Global infrastructure fundraising hit a record US$289 billion in 2025. LP allocations are rising further in 2026—but capital is concentrating, with the top 10 managers capturing 40% of total commitments. Commitments above $2 billion are increasing most sharply. 

  • Battery storage topped North American sector rankings for the first time. Regulated gas improved materially. Geopolitical risk is now priced in individual transactions: supply chain exposure, policy durability, and counterparty strength are deal-level considerations. 

  • Canada’s pension funds—CPPIB, OMERS, Ontario Teachers’, PSP—sit at the intersection of that capital and those relationships. Their sovereign co-investment networks across Asia, the Gulf, and Europe are the intermediation layer global allocators. 

The world is noticing the shift in Canada, but it wants to see evidence of intent and action. The federal government will get a chance to bolster the case for Canada at the Canada Investment Summit in Toronto this September. 

 Shaz Merwat, Energy Policy Lead 

In ‘Surging gold prices, inroads to foreign markets cushion Canada’s exports,’ RBC Economics notes that ‘gold exports to the U.K. surged by a nominal $17 billion, or 76%, in 2025—making gold Canada’s second-largest export after crude oil—significantly cushioning declines in other goods.’ 

It wasn’t a headline agenda item of the Xi–Putin summit this week, but the Power of Siberia 2, a long-stalled pipeline that would carry Russian natural gas east to China, inched back into the spotlight as a result of the two leaders high-profile meeting. 

What is being proposed? 

A 2,600-kilometre pipeline carrying up to 50 billion cubic metre per year of gas, nearly on par with the capacity of the now idle Nord Stream 1, from Siberia’s Yamal gas fields through Mongolia to China.  

What’s the holdup? 

For one thing, price. Beijing wants roughly 12–13 cents per cubic metre, near Russia’s domestic rate; Moscow wants double. The summit ended with warm words but no price or project timeline. 

If it did come to be, how would it alter Chinese demand for non-Russian imports? 

An overland gas pipeline sidesteps maritime chokepoints China’s seaborne LNG must run through, such as the Strait of Hormuz, where tensions have left oil and gas tankers stranded for weeks (two Chinese tankers passed through Hormuz this week). A direct pipeline link to Russia would displace gas that China might otherwise pull from global LNG markets, with potential downward pressure on prices. 

Implications for Canada’s LNG ambitions? 

According to Robert Johnston at the University of Calgary, Canada’s gas story lies closer to home. More Russian gas east would push U.S. and Qatar LNG cargoes toward the same Asian buyers Canada is courting, impacting prices as LNG Canada’s second phase ramps up. But with an image of geopolitical stability and strong emissions credentials (Russian gas has an emissions intensity 50% higher than Canada’s gas) the decisive variable for Canada’s LNG ambitions–the rollout of major projects–is domestic execution rather than economics.

Additionally, energy importers are increasingly wary of relying heavily on one geography, especially after Russia weaponized natural gas exports to pressure Europe as it ramped up its war in Ukraine, and Middle East suppliers are being hemmed in by the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Canada offers largely apolitical, stable supply in a fragmented world with disrupted energy trade flows.

 Vivan Sorab, Clean Tech Lead 

IEA warns oil markets nearing “red zone” by late summer 

  • International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol warned oil markets could enter a “red zone” by July-August, with 14 million barrels per day disrupted, inventories falling, and no meaningful new Middle East supply entering the market amid the Iran crisis.  

China’s renminbi payment system sees record surge

  • China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) processed a record average daily value of RMB920.5 billion (US$135.7 billion) in March, briefly peaking at RMB1.22 trillion and nearly 42,000 transactions in a single day representing a surge in energy trade outside the U.S. dollar system.

Brussels advances implementation of U.S. trade pact 

  • EU lawmakers and member states reached a provisional agreement to implement last year’s U.S.-EU trade arrangement, including safeguards allowing Brussels to suspend tariff reductions if Washington maintains steel and aluminum duties above agreed levels beyond 2026.   

EU approves expanded foreign investment screening powers 

  • The European Parliament approved new foreign investment screening rules covering sectors including AI, semiconductors, quantum, aerospace, energy, and critical infrastructure, broadening scrutiny over third-country investment across the bloc.

Ottawa and Nunavut launch tariff-response workforce program 

  • The governments announced more than $1.5 million in funding for marine-sector training and employment supports tied to tariff-related economic disruption.  

Manitoba opens trade office in India amid diversification push 

  • Manitoba announced plans to establish a trade office in India as provinces continue pursuing direct commercial relationships abroad and reducing reliance on the U.S. market.

—Thomas Ashcroft, Global Policy Lead 

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  • Pathways for pipeline: Breaking down the Alberta-Canada deal

  • Why Hope Bay project boosts Indigenous participation

  • Oil is spiking, but clean energy stocks are the ones getting a bump

Honda may have shelved its $15-billion EV plant in Ontario—but there’s a world where Canada’s assembly lines bustle with activity. In Steering Through Uncertainty, RBC Thought Leadership’s Managing Director Jordan Brennan outlines four possible futures for the embattled Canadian auto industry. One of the rosier forecasts sees the industry restore access to the U.S. market, unlock billions in pledged investment for EVs and conventional vehicles, and ramp up car assembly to two million by 2040 (from 1.3 million today). Leveraging critical mineral reserves bolsters the case for made-in-Canada cars. That’s the fast lane scenario. Other projections lead to diversification, deceleration, and even a dead end. Dive into all four scenarios here.

Hope Bay project promises Inuit-led development. Ottawa broke ground on the $2 billion redevelopment of the Hope Bay gold mine in Nunavut—projecting $2.6 billion in annual export growth and nearly 2,000 jobs. Ottawa also committed $25 million to the Kitikmeot Tugliq Energy Hope Bay Wind Project, an Inuit-owned wind and battery storage system that will power the mine. The project is a useful real-world test of the framework examined in Nations Building, our assessment of Indigenous loan guarantee programs in Canada’s new project wave. Hope Bay is promising on three counts:(1)The mine will be powered by wind and batteries rather than diesel. (2) Indigenous equity participation in mining remains structurally underrepresented. Hope Bay is gold, not a critical mineral, but it establishes a template for the harder projects that follow. (3) An Inuit-owned energy project powering a mine on Inuit lands offers opportunities communities in remote regions toparticipate in Canada’s new projects.

Clean energy index has outpaced oil since Middle East conflict began

Oil prices are spiking, but momentum rests with low-carbon stocks. Clean energy companies benefit from both elevated fossil fuel prices and accelerating renewable policy support on growing concerns over energy independence, Christopher Dendrinos, RBC Capital Market’s clean energy analyst, told us. This is particularly pronounced in oil-and-gas import-reliant Europe. While natural gas dominates the data centre space, renewables are also benefiting from rising demand to power AI. “The sector remains resilient going forward given the strong energy demand macro backdrop,” Dendrinos said.

Canada and Alberta’s landmark Implementation Agreement last week builds on the November 2025 Memorandum of Understanding that aimed to balance Canada’s economic and environmental goals.  However, the Implementation Agreement doesn’t stand alone. A day before, Carney had launched a National Electricity Strategy committing to double Canada’s grid capacity by 2050, with consultations now underway with provinces, territories, Indigenous Peoples, utilities, and unions. The strategy projects up to $15 billion in total energy savings and lower energy costs for 7 in 10 Canadian households. Natural gas retains a role for grid stability, nuclear and geothermal get explicit support, and the Clean Electricity Investment Tax Credit is being extended to intra-provincial transmission. A joint Alberta-Canada Electricity Working Group has been struck to advance the work.

Other stakeholders will now weigh in on the national electricity strategy, but the Alberta-MoU is much further ahead and poised for action. Energy Policy Lead Shaz Merwat breaks down its key highlights:

  • Carbon pricing in Alberta is locked in through 2040: Headline TIER (Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction) prices: $95 today, $115 per tonne in 2030, $130 in 2035, $140 in 2040. The federal backstop will be updated to match — this is now effectively the national industrial carbon pricing framework.

  • A binding floor on TIER credits — for the first time: Starting at $60/t in 2030, rising to $110/t by 2040. Pre-MOU, TIER credits traded at roughly $20 against a $95 headline. The floor is the most consequential new mechanism in the deal.

  • 75 Mt of Carbon Contracts for Difference: Jointly issued 2030–2040, equally cost-shared, $600 million maximum liability per party ($1.2 billion aggregate). If either government walks back, that party assumes sole liability.

  • The West Coast pipeline has a defined timeline: Alberta submits to the Major Projects Office by July 1, with Ottawa designating it as a “project of national interest” under the Building Canada Act by October 1. The one million barrels per day pipeline to Asian markets could start construction by September 2027.

  • No Pathways, no pipeline. The two projects are explicitly mutually dependent. Pathways targets 16 Mtpa in total emissions reductions: 6 Mtpa by 2035, 5 Mtpa by 2040, 5 Mtpa by 2045. The trilateral MOU with the Oil Sands Alliance is still unsigned.

  • Sector-specific stringency rates. Large oil sands companies face 2% annual tightening of emissions intensity through to 2040 under revamped TIER, while Pathways operators see a tightening of just 1% from 2031 onwards.

  • Co-operation agreement on Impact Assessment. Two-year cap on impact assessments and federal deference to provincial processes where projects fall primarily within Alberta’s jurisdiction.

  • Indigenous economic participation centred across the framework. Co-ownership and equity partnership paths referenced repeatedly in today’s Implementation Agreement and the Co-operation Agreement on Impact Assessment.

  • The Co-operation agreement reflects intriguingly different working on UNDRIP. Canada maintains its commitment, while Alberta views UNDRIP as non-binding.

  • Climate targets remain intact. Both Alberta and Ottawa re-commit their target of net zero by 2050.

Taken together, the twin announcements represent a potential move towards creating the most comprehensive federal-provincial energy framework Canada has produced in a decade — covering carbon markets, carbon capture, storage and utilization, oil export infrastructure, and grid expansion simultaneously. The architecture is scoped, but execution will be key. The proxies to watch over the summer, in the lead-up to Ottawa’s Canada Investment Summit in September: a named pipeline proponent, the trilateral MOU with the Oil Sands Alliance, and the first material Indigenous consent agreement on the pipeline route.

  • Long-term uncertainty in global oil markets may ultimately accelerate the shift toward EVs as Canada strengthens domestic electricity generation, Victor Fedeli, Ontario’s Minister of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade, told John Stackhouse at the Toronto Region Board of Trade Auto Event.

  • Agriculture Policy Lead Lisa Ashton on why Canada and other countries are embarking on a fertilizer emissions accounting overhaul. Read the brief here.

  • It’s hard to trace where critical minerals come from, weakening their environmental bona fides. Around 30-40% of the companies have a traceability system. The International Energy Agency says strengthening incentives for collecting and sharing data could be one of five ways to address the challenge.

  • Alberta’s “failure” to build new transmission could cost consumers in the province over a  quarter of a billion dollars annually through higher electricity bills, Will Noel, of the Pembina Institute, estimates.

  • Leah Stokes, a professor of environmental politics at the University of California-Santa Barbara, says the current U.S. administration’s push away from clean sources is costing each American household US$1,508 this year alone.

Curated by Yadullah Hussain, Managing Editor, RBC Climate Action Institute.

Climate Crunch would not be possible without John Stackhouse, Jordan Brennan, John Intini, Farhad PanahovLisa AshtonShaz MerwatVivan SorabCaprice Biasoni, Lavanya Kaleeswaran and Joelle Schonberg .

Have a comment, commendation, or umm, criticism? Write to me here (yadullahhussain@rbc.com)

Climate Crunch Newsletter

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As Canadian farmers produce more per acre to feed a growing global population, fertilizer use has jumped 108% over the past two decades. That has come with an environmental impact: synthetic fertilizers now account for a quarter of the agriculture sector’s emissions in Canada.1 But the current emissions accounting system is flawed as it primarily focuses on the quantity used. What’s missing in the equation is farmer stewardship of fertilizer use to optimize placement, source and timing that help lower emissions.

Crop emissions from fertilizers have risen by 111% since 2005.

Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada and RBC Climate Action Institute

In an effort to optimize fertilizer use, the number of Canadian farmers with a nutrient stewardship plan has more than tripled over the past five years.2

Rising adoption rates are a sign of climate action. But it’s also an economic decision, especially as geopolitics continue to disrupt fertilizer supplies and raise prices. Nitrogen fertilizers have faced the brunt of supply chain shocks from geopolitical conflicts over the past five years as key producers include the Middle East and Russia. Nitrogen is also the primary driver of GHG emissions from fertilizer use. When nitrogen is not fully consumed by crops to grow, nitrogen can be emitted into the atmosphere as nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, a GHG that is 273 times more potent than carbon dioxide over a 100-year time scale. When farmers adopt nutrient stewardship practices, GHG reductions can be substantial. An Ontario study, for example, found that when nitrogen fertilizer rates are optimized, and technology and practices that improve the source, timing and placement of fertilizer are adopted, N2O emissions can fall by up to 57%.

To capture in the accounting the full suite of practices, Canada, and other agriculture producing countries, including Australia, Denmark, New Zealand, Brazil and the U.S., are developing research and industry networks to collaboratively advance N2O measurement and monitoring systems.  

These research-driven networks have multiple lab-to-market applications, including those focused on:

  • Improving the understanding of how farmers’ practices impact N2O emissions, supporting investment decisions by farmers, industry and governments in nutrient stewardship

  • Building a suite of indicators that allow for more accurate tracking against GHG emission targets at the farm, regional and national scale

  • Refining the measuring, monitoring, reporting and verification (MMRV) protocols for carbon offsets and sustainability programs, improving the accounting of farmers’ climate actions to better connect them to market-based incentives and provide greater assurance to carbon credit buyers

Canada: A driving force in innovation of measurement and monitoring practices

Canada’s response to fertilizer-related N2O emissions has increasingly focused on improving measurement, coordination, and on-farm nitrogen management. A central initiative is the Canadian Nitrous Oxide Network (CanN2ONet), a collaborative research network involving universities, government agencies, farmer groups, and industry partners. The network was established shortly after Canada’s national target for reducing fertilizer-related N2O emissions by 30% by 2030 was announced in 2020—a policy with notable industry push back that has since faded in sector discourse.

CanN2ONet operates a series of long-term monitoring sites across Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Ontario. These sites use micrometeorological techniques to continuously measure N₂O emissions from agricultural fields under different climates, soil conditions, and management systems. The network also addresses a long-standing challenge in agricultural climate policy: accurately measuring emissions at field scale. Traditional national GHG inventories often rely on generalized assumptions that do not fully capture local soil and weather conditions.

Denmark: An ambitious vision for meeting GHG targets

Denmark’s SmartField initiative represents one of Europe’s most advanced efforts to reduce agricultural N2O through data-driven and field-scale innovation. Led by the Danish Technological Institute and funded by the Novo Nordisk Foundation, SmartField aims to cut N2O emissions from Danish agriculture by as much as 30% by 2030 without reducing yields or increasing other forms of nitrogen pollution. 

Canada and Denmark-based researchers are advising one another as both CanN2ONet and SmartField focus on building a national testing and validation platform for emission-reduction technologies and farming practices. The SmartField project combines stationary “supersites,” mobile measurement systems, advanced sensors, and modelling tools to monitor how fertilizers behave in real farming conditions. These facilities generate detailed datasets on nitrogen cycling, soil biology, crop performance, and greenhouse gas emissions. 

One of the initiative’s features is the integration of science, policy, and implementation. SmartField brings together universities, government agencies, agricultural organizations, and private-sector stakeholders to accelerate the adoption of low-emission farming practices.

New Zealand: Balancing rural economic growth and GHG trajectories

Agriculture accounts for roughly half of the country’s GHG emissions. Cattle manure from livestock and fertilization of grasslands for animal feed are the main culprits of N2O emissions. The agricultural sector is also the largest contributor to export revenue, accounting for 70% of merchandise exports, with agricultural production alone contributing 5% to the country’s GDP.

New Zealand’s approach to managing its large agriculture environmental and economic footprint has evolved over the past five years with an initially strong prioritization on GHG reductions aligned with legislated net-zero targets. Through industry engagement, the focus has shifted towards innovation and scaling practices and technologies that present win-wins in productivity and emissions reduction. A government-led, centralized approach to advancing N2O emissions accounting has been driven by the country’s Ag Emissions Centre and rolls into New Zealand’s broader ambitions to mitigate GHG emissions from agriculture.

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Also in this edition: Should farmland be used to produce food or fuel? And four potential routes for Canada’s embattled auto industry. 

The summit between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping in Beijing produced no breakthrough agreements, but that may have been beside the point. After a year in which tariffs between the two countries exceeded 100% and trade flows sharply contracted, the immediate objective on both sides appears to have been stabilization versus resolution. 

The atmospherics mattered. Trump described the talks as producing “fantastic trade deals,” while Beijing emphasized “common understandings” and continuity. But beneath the optics, the summit revealed where the real negotiations and constraints now sit.  

A few themes stood out: 

The trade relationship is structurally smaller than it was 

  • U.S. imports of Chinese goods and the bilateral trade deficit are now at roughly 20-year lows. Washington’s efforts to reduce exposure to China through tariffs, supply chain diversification, and industrial policy have had a measurable effect. The relationship is no longer defined by integration.

  • There was no material progress on tariffs or the Section 301 trade investigations targeting China over state-subsidized production overcapacity in sectors like steel, and electric vehicles.

China’s priority is predictability 

  • The Chinese spent the years between Trump’s first and second terms doing their homework, preparing counteractive policies for more U.S. trade confrontation. Export controls on rare earths and critical minerals, industrial policy tools, and tighter supply chain leverage have proven key weapons in China’s arsenal.  

  • But the summit reinforced that Beijing’s near-term priority is a more predictable operating environment with Washington—one that reduces the risk of escalation and preserves access to key export markets, technology inputs, and capital flows.  

No major progress on chips and export controls 

  • Global semiconductor stocks slid with no major chip deals announced and continued stagnation over the sale of Nvidia’s H200 chips to China.  

  • This remains the clearest dividing line in the trading relationship. Washington still sees leading-edge chips and export controls as a way to mitigate China’s access to advanced semiconductors that could be used for military applications or AI innovations. Beijing, in turn, hasn’t formally approved shipments of the chips and has looked inward, urging Chinese firms to switch to domestic hardware.

Agricultural purchases are a U.S. political priority 

  • The clearest deliverables, as is often the case in trade negotiations with China, may ultimately come in agriculture. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Washington expects China to commit to “double-digit billions” in annual purchases of U.S. agricultural products over the next three years, including soybeans, poultry, and pork.  

  • The White House needs to be seen as supporting U.S. farmers, especially as the impacts of the Iran war on fertilizer prices and other agricultural inputs rise ahead of the mid-terms and as planting season gets underway.

Both sides appear to want guardrails 

  • Discussions around a possible “board of trade,” investment mechanisms, and even preliminary AI guardrails show neither Washington nor Beijing currently wants uncontrolled escalation.  

  • The strategic rivalry continues, but both sides appear increasingly focused on managing it rather than intensifying it in the near term. 

Thomas Ashcroft, Global Issues Policy Lead 

Skyrocketing oil and gas prices and supply constraints are pushing countries to boost biofuel production and use. The shift aims to curtail reliance on Middle East oil and gas supplies. But the surge in policy-driven biofuel demand coincides with the rising food affordability crisis reviving a recurring debate: should farmland be used to produce food or fuel?  

The biofuel boom:

  • The U.S.’s Environmental Protection Agency set record Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) for 2026–2027 with notable increases for biomass-based diesel, produced primarily from soybean and canola oil in North America. In addition, the U.S. House passed legislation this week to allow nationwide year‑round sales of gasoline containing 15% ​ethanol (labelled as E15), which is largely produced from corn in the U.S. 

  • The European Commission proposed the AccelerateEU strategy in April, which includes measures to boost EU sustainable biofuel production and use. This proposal is a rapid response to the bloc spending an additional €24 billion on fossil fuel imports within the first 50 days of the Iran conflict.  

  • Indonesia revived its plans to introduce a higher biofuel blend in 2026 following rising fossil fuel import costs. The blending rate mandate ​for biodiesel made from palm oil is planned to move to 50% from 40% this year.   

  • Brazil is actively accelerating its biofuel blending mandates to enhance energy sovereignty. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced in April that the ethanol blend mandate will be raised to 32% (E32) in gasoline this spring. For biodiesel, testing is underway to understand the viability for moving the blending rate from 15% to 20%.  

  • India reached its E20 ethanol blending goal in April. Disruptions to the country’s oil and gas prices and supply are prompting discussions on ramping up to E85 or E100 as production capacity expands.    

  • Vietnam expedited its national mandate for 10% ethanol blends in gasoline to begin in April due to energy shocks in price and supply. Ethanol is produced mostly from cassava, sugarcane, and increasingly corn in the Southeast Asian nation.   

  • …and Canada? In response to the previous shock to Canada’s biofuel supply chains from U.S. trade tensions, the federal government announced a $370 million Biofuel Production Incentive and committed to amending the Clean Fuel Regulation to prioritize domestic low-carbon fuel production. These measures, while not in response to Iran war, are intended to increase the resilience of the domestic biofuel sector.  

Bottomline: The global biofuel market is poised to enter another expansion cycle as countries raise blending mandates to meet energy security and transition to lower greenhouse gas emitting energy sources. However, early signs of rising corn, sugarcane, and vegetable prices may further pressure food prices this year.  

Lisa Ashton, Agriculture Policy Lead 

About 200 auto sector executives packed into a hotel ballroom this week for the Toronto Region Board of Trade’s Ontario Auto Forum. Magna CEO Swamy Kotagiri laid out three distinct options for dealing with the industry’s headwinds: protect jobs, chase affordability, or build resilience through anchoring the industry in capabilities that can’t easily be replicated. The latter, he said, should be the priority.  

RBC Thought Leadership’s Managing Director Jordan Brennan also took to the stage, presenting findings from his latest report Steering Through Uncertainty, which charts four distinct paths for the embattled auto industry.  

Canada's auto sector lost productive capacity during expansion phases

Read the full report, including the five strategic considerations that cut across all four scenarios, here.  

USTR pushes for “Fortress North America” steel protections under USMCA 

  • Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Jeffrey Goettman said an updated USMCA should include “unified tariff borders” for sectors like steel, aluminum, and autos to prevent products made with non-North American inputs from entering through Canada or Mexico. U.S. steel executives backed tighter “melt-and-pour” origin rules. 

EU sanctions on Chinese chip supplier raise fears of automotive disruption 

  • Industry executives warned EU sanctions of Chinese chipmaker Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology, for allegedly supplying military technology to Russia, could trigger renewed chip shortages across the auto sector. Some firms are already seeking exemptions as manufacturers remain vulnerable following last year’s rare earth and semiconductor disruptions.   

EDC expands focus on diversification, defence, and strategic sectors 

  • Export Development Canada announced it facilitated $135 billion in trade-related activity in 2025, supported nearly 24,000 businesses, launched new programs, while expanding its European and Indo-Pacific presence. 

Bank of Canada research highlights declining maritime connectivity 

  • Canadian ports became less central to global shipping networks between 2016 and 2023, with declining direct connectivity and lower shipping capacity relative to major Asian hubs. The risk, writes the BoC, is “greater exposure to supply chain disruptions that could increase the cost of doing business.”  

Disclaimer

rbc_tl_disclaimer

This report is part of RBC Thought Leadership’s Growth Project, our ongoing initiative to generate new ideas for the Canadian economy. Canada’s auto industry, which employs 125,000 people and accounts for 10% of Canadian exports, is central to the dynamism of the country’s wider advanced manufacturing sector and economic relations with the U.S. Over the past 10 months, to help chart a path forward for the industry at this critical moment, we spoke with automakers, parts suppliers and other industry experts to inform the research, which sets out four different futures for the industry.

  • Canada’s auto industry is at an inflection point within the North American industry. Washington’s focus on reviving domestic production threatens to rip up decades-old Montreal-to-Detroit supply chains. In our most pessimistic scenario, auto assembly plants in Canada could shutter by 2040.

  • Alternatively, Canada’s unit volume could grow to two million by 2040. Continued tariff-free access to the U.S. market could ramp up manufacturing in our most optimistic scenario.

  • The industry is also grappling with two global transitions unfolding at different speeds. Electric vehicle adoption is proceeding more slowly than forecast, stranding billions in investments. Meanwhile, AI, autonomy, and software revolutions are accelerating faster than original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) can embed in assembly lines, creating a mismatch between capital commitments and market-ready technology.

  • The auto industry’s future will be increasingly defined by the value generated per vehicle. The U.S. captures roughly twice the amount of GDP per assembled vehicle than Canada–and the gap is widening. Automation and robotics could lead to a world where fewer workers build more vehicles.

  • Market access is a powerful, underutilized asset. Only Americans buy more cars, per capita, than Canadians. With 90% of the Canadian market supplied by imports, Canada can link market access to investment commitments across manufacturing, R&D, software, testing, and certification.

Canada’s auto industry is at the centre of a storm. This isn’t the first time the industry has been threatened by precipitous conditions, but the present deluge poses a serious—perhaps existential—threat. The greatest source of upheaval comes in the form of President Donald Trump’s use of tariffs to repatriate manufacturing capacity to the American heartland. The year following Trump’s re-election was dotted with a painful series of product line cancellations, plant closures, and the most job losses in Canada’s auto industry since the Great Recession.

Adding to the tariff turmoil are four structural shifts in the industry: 

Electric vehicle adoption initially grew quickly thanks to consumer incentives, emissions rules, and industrial subsidies. But recent incentive rollbacks have made EVs less attractive for consumers, hurting sales, and prompting automakers to pause or cancel EV programs. In the short term, EV adoption may remain uneven due to affordability and charging infrastructure concerns. Long-term, frequent oil market shocks could accelerate adoption as domestically generated electricity leaves countries less exposed to geopolitical instability. 

As new models come loaded with connectivity, autonomy, AI, and electric propulsion, cars are increasingly becoming rolling technology platforms. More of a vehicle’s performance and value depends on batteries, chips, sensors, and software. As a result, the value pool expands beyond final assembly. That’s leading to a retooling of the industry as demand for new expertise and components disrupt the established skills and supply chains.

In 2025, some 92 million vehicles were sold globally, down from 95 million in 2017. Sales in the U.S. peaked in 2016, with Canada following a year later.1 The combination of an aging population and rapid urbanization is triggering structural shifts in global demand. That’s even before an impending autonomous vehicle revolution that could reimagine car ownership.

Chinese automakers surpassed their Japan rivals as the world’s largest car seller in 2025, having grown its market share from less than 1% to ~35% over the past 25 years. The country’s rising dominance in the global auto market, often with superior technology and lower prices, poses the most significant long-term threat to North America’s auto industry.  

Ultimately, Canada must decide how it positions itself in a transformed global auto system. With US$735 million in annual R&D spending, auto manufacturing is a high-tech, high value industry with substantial spillover benefits across sectors.2 Canada has several competitive advantages, too—skilled labour, clean and affordable power, and award-winning assembly facilities—that position it well to capture value across the supply chain. Success depends on maintaining the competitiveness of the ecosystem of suppliers, services, and technology providers.

With punitive Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper still in force and the Canada-U.S.-Mexico (CUSMA) renegotiations imminent, Canadian policymakers and industry need to weigh the tradeoffs between competing strategic orientations. With that in mind, we look out to 2040 and explore four potential paths for Canada’s auto future.

China's rising dominance in the
global auto market poses the
most significant long-term threat
to North America’s auto industry.

Toyota: Woodstock Assembly - RAV4 Hybrid

General Motors: CAMI Assembly
(Ingersoll) - Status: Idled Chevy BrightDrop EV Vans cancelled

Toyota: Cambridge Plants
(North and South); south - Lexus RX 350 (ICE + Hybrid)
Lexus RX 500 Hyrbrid; North - Lexus NX (ICE + Hybrid) RAV4 Hybrid

General Motors: St. Catharines
Propulsion Plant - Next-generation V8 engine

Stellantis: Windsor Assembly - Chrysler Pacifica (ICE + Hybrid), Chrysler Grand Caravan + Voyager,  Dodge Charger lineup

Honda: Alliston Plant
Plant 1: Civic (ICE + Hybrid); Plant 2:
CR-V (ICE + Hybrid); Plant 3: Four-cylinder engine plant

General Motors: Oshawa Assembly - Chevrolet Silverado - (Light & Heavy-Duty models 

Steelantis: Etobicoke Casting Plant - Parts and components
for vehicles

Ford: Oakville Assembly - Retooling for Ford Super Duty, Plans to build EV, SUVs abandoned

Stellantis: Brampton Assembly - Status: Idled; Jeep Compass program moved to Illinoi
MeasureEstimate Quantities
Employment125,000 workers: assembly (35,000), parts (71,000), body and trailer (18,000)
Units Produced1.3M (2024)
Value Added (GDP)$17B (2024)
Shipments$102B ($64B vehicles + $38B parts)
OEMsToyota, Honda, Stellantis, GM, Ford
# Parts Suppliers700
Gross Capital Stock$65B (replacement cost)
Robot Density1,475 robots /10,000 employees

1. Fast Lane—Higher volume, more value and closer integration

Key assumptions

  • Canada secures duty-free access to the U.S. market

  • Reforms are made to the rules of origin, domestic content requirements, and most favoured nation tariff rates

  • Tariffs limit Chinese access to the North American market

  • The total cost of EV ownership continues to decline

  • Pledged EV investments proceed on a longer timeline

  • Advancements in AI and autonomy boost value per vehicle

  • Canada expands its low-carbon grid and strengthens its critical minerals refining capabilities.

Life in the ‘Fast Lane’

This is a world where North American integration holds, electrification advances, and value deepens inside existing ecosystems. The five OEMs (General Motors, Ford, Stellantis NV, Honda and Toyota) in Canada maintain their manufacturing presence, but plants that were furloughed or operating at low utilization win new product mandates and increase assembly volumes. The Windsor-Montreal corridor combines assembly plants, Tier-1 suppliers, tooling firms, automation, AI and software firms, and in-market engineering talent that few jurisdictions can replicate. The 700-plus suppliers feature world-class Canadian companies, including Magna, Linamar, Multimatic, and Martinrea.

The Fast Lane is narrow but navigable. The foundation is restored duty-free trade with the U.S. Reforms to the rules of origin, domestic content requirements, and most-favoured-nation tariff rates further incentivize OEMs to allocate product to Canadian assembly plants.3 Simultaneously, a protective tariff wall rises around North America to keep Chinese EVs out—creating the competitive breathing room that North American OEMs need to invest with confidence.

Restored access, coupled with improvement in EV affordability unlocks tens of billions in pledged investment, most of which was deferred during the tariff war. Units assembled climb from 1.3 million in 2025 to 2 million by 2040—as many vehicles as Canadians purchase annually. Plus, Canada’s capabilities in light-weight materials, mobile communications, sensors and controls, software, data analytics, AI, cyber security and battery research are leveraged to win new mandates higher up the value chain.4

The Windsor-Montreal corridor functions as a Silicon Valley of the North—with deep engineering talent in autonomy, AI, lightweight materials and embedded systems. This is important since, as McKinsey projects, the software, sensors, control units, and electronics segment of the global industry will grow from US$335 billion to US$520 billion between 2025 and 2035.

The electrification path is longer than originally forecast, but it arrives. After $70 billion in EV write-downs in 2026, battery costs continue to fall while range and charging infrastructure improve. By 2030, market-driven consumer adoption begins. PHEV and BEV penetration rises from 10% in 2025 to 25% by 2030 and more than 60% by 2040. British Columbia and Quebec lead adoption—EV registrations hold around 20% in hydro-powered provinces even after federal rebates expire—before expanding into other markets as economics improve.

Canada trails U.S. on GDP-per-vehicle assembled
Motor vehicles and parts manufacturing GDP per assembled vehicle, USD/vehicle*

*Canadian industry: Motor vehicles and parts manufacturing; U.S. indsutry: Motor vehicles, bodies and trailers, and parts
GDP is based on chained 2017 dollars; CAD converted to USD

--Insights from RBC thought leadership

Canada’s critical minerals strategy bolsters Canada’s case. The mining, processing, and secondary manufacture of copper, cobalt, lithium, and magnesium—increasingly concentrated along a Northern Ontario-Quebec supply chain—strengthens battery integrity and reduces OEM exposure to Chinese inputs. Clean, affordable power bolsters the investment case. Ontario and Quebec’s low-emissions grids—Quebec’s electricity prices already sit below auto hubs like Michigan and Ohio—matter more in the smart-car era because electrification raises the power load. Computing, testing, and validation add to that demand. A cleaner, cheaper grid widens the margin and reduces carbon exposure on vehicle exports to increasingly emissions-conscious markets.

The Waterloo-Ottawa-Montreal corridor functions as a Silicon Valley of the North—with deep engineering talent in autonomy, AI, lightweight materials and embedded systems. This is important since, as McKinsey projects, the software, sensors, control units, and electronics segment of the global industry will grow from US$335 billion to US$520 billion between 2025 and 2035.

By 2040, Canada has an ecosystem where value is created across the stack—from the mine to the battery cell to the software-defined vehicle—anchored by assembly.

In this world, it’s clear the auto industry has become a technology platform, not just a manufacturing industry. The winning auto jurisdictions are not only judged on the number of units they assemble, but by the amount of value captured within each vehicle. Industrial ecosystems, not individual firms, bestow sustained competitive advantage.

Strategic tensions

  • Canada strengthens its position inside the North America auto system but becomes more dependent (and more exposed) to U.S. policy volatility.

  • If OEMs vertically integrate, pulling more EV content, software, and system integration in-house, Canada’s move into EVs and smart cars could be threatened.

  • Restricting Chinese imports and foreign competition raises domestic vehicle prices and delays EV adoption, with implications for transportation emissions.

Canada’s EV assembly plants face extended retooling delays

Publicly reported project value (CAD $B)

What needs to happen

  • In exchange for duty-free access, Ottawa and the provinces could enter a critical minerals auto pact with the U.S., co-creating incentives (e.g., off-take agreements, stockpiling, price floors) that commercially de-risk private investment flows into the mining and processing of nickel, copper, lithium, graphite, aluminum and REE’s, bolstering North America’s strategic industrial supply chain.    

  • Canada, the U.S. and Mexico could take a coordinated approach to tariffing EVs, steel, aluminum, and auto parts outside the bloc to hedge against Chinese dumping. All three jurisdictions could align policy on the rules of origin and Most Favoured Nation tariffs to incentivize investment within the bloc.

  • To ensure an abundance of competitively priced, non-emitting power, Ontario could embark on an aggressive expansion of hydro, nuclear, and wind power, expanding and modernizing the grid. Federal and provincial governments could massively expand charging infrastructure to bolster EV adoption. 

  • To win new mandates in R&D and software, Ontario and Quebec could consider co-investing with assemblers and parts manufacturers in shared research, testing and validation facilities. Eligibility thresholds for the Scientific Research and Experimental Development (SR&ED) program could be lowered to attract investment mandates in electronics, connectivity, autonomy, cyber security, and lightweight materials.

  • Ottawa could consider reforming its immigration strategy to attract and retain professors and graduate students in computer and materials science, mechanical and chemical engineering, and AI and machine learning, deepening the ecosystem of competitively priced tech talent.


The transition to EVs is underway worldwide

2. Slow Lane—Assembly survives, EV adoption slows,value grows elsewhere

Key assumptions

  • CUSMA survives but is diluted

  • EV adoption continues but is slower than expected

  • Chinese OEMs expand their presence in Canada’s consumer market

  • The U.S. continues to exclude Chinese vehicles 

  • Critical minerals and clean power lead to select mandate renewals

  • Canada retains strategic value as a site for spillover capacity and assembly diversification

Drifting into the ‘Slow Lane’

Canada maintains its presence within the North American system, but its position and strategic relevance diminish. The trigger for the Slow Lane scenario is a sub-optimal outcome in trade talks. CUSMA survives the 2026 renegotiation but emerges narrower and less predictable. Canada secures a 10% headline tariff—a 5% effective rate on assembled vehicles—which compresses assembly margins close to zero. It’s not fatal to plant economics, but it changes the calculus for OEM investment allocation committees sitting in Detroit, Tokyo, and Stuttgart. And with the perennial threat of higher tariffs lurking in the background, investing in Canadian operations becomes prohibitively risky.

The Slow Lane is not a crisis—it sees Canada retain current production—but the higher value layers of the auto ecosystem grow elsewhere. Plants continue to run, retooling investments occur periodically, and assembly employment is largely maintained. Canada steadily cedes the investments, mandates, and capabilities that determine long-term industrial relevance, however. By 2040, Canada assembles 1.2 million vehicles, but Canada captures a smaller share of the value per vehicle over time.

Ironically, Canada’s auto industry was birthed behind protective tariffs on American-made vehicles.5 In the early twentieth century, a 35% National Policy tariff on imported cars was implemented to protect Canadian production from American competition.6 Rather than sustain Canadian automakers, the tariffs prompted American giants like Ford and GM to hop over the tariff wall and establish branch plants in Canada.7 This result: Canada became the world’s second-largest vehicle producer by 1930. By the turn of the century, Canada was assembling three million vehicles a year and ranked first when benchmarked against population. But the country lost that edge, assembling just 1.3 million vehicles by 2024.

The EV transition compounds the problem. Consumer adoption further slows after federal rebates expire—EV registrations fall below 10% nationally in 2025 and do not recover without sustained policy support. ICE and hybrid platforms extend their commercial life, which sounds like a reprieve for assembly but is a strategic trap: the investments Canada made in EV battery supply chains generate returns below their business case assumptions. EV supply remains stranded behind anemic consumer adoption, hindering Canada’s investability.

Meanwhile, the fast-growing layers of the industry migrate elsewhere. R&D mandates shrink as engineering and software functions consolidate around U.S. and Japanese assembly hubs. Contract revenues from OEM R&D programs thin out for the Windsor-Montreal corridor. STEM graduates take their skills to better-paying markets. Some of Canada’s homegrown giants remain globally competitive—but their growth happens in the U.S. Sun Belt, Mexico, and Germany, not in Ontario.

RankCountryUnits Assembled
(Million)
Share of
Global Total
Units Assembled
per 1,000 Residents
Per Capita
Rank
1China31.334%229
2U.S.10.611%318
3Japan8.29%663
4India6.07%415
5Mexico4.25%327
13Canada1.31.5%336
RankCountryUnits Assembled
(Million)
Share of
Global Total
Units Assembled
per 1,000 Residents
Per Capita
Rank
1U.S.1323%477
2Japan9.918%782
3Germany5.710%694
4France3.26%526
5Canada3.15.4%1011

Sources: OICA; UN World Development Indicators

Canada’s aging consumer market reinforces the trajectory. Vehicle sales peaked in 2018 and have not scaled to those heights even as the population had risen by four million by 2025. The slowdown signals structural shifts in ownership patterns among largely urban, younger cohorts who increasingly rely on transit, ride-hailing, and car-sharing. A market that fails to grow in volume gives OEMs less reason to invest in Canadian production capacity.

Governments respond by competing for individual mandates—matching U.S. incentives on a project-by-project basis. The approach is costly and reactive. Each subsidy dollar spent defending existing assembly is a dollar not spent building capabilities—testing infrastructure, advanced manufacturing clusters, engineering talent pipelines—that would make Canada competitive for higher-value mandates. The Parliamentary Budget Office documented that public support for the auto sector between 2020 and 2024 exceeded private capital committed.8 In the Slow Lane, that ratio worsens.

Canadian auto sector retains less value than its North American peers

By 2040, Canada still ships vehicles, but a growing share of the value inside those vehicles—the software stack, the battery chemistry, the electronic control systems—originates outside Canada’s borders. The ecosystem gradually thins out with each lost investment mandate.

It becomes clear that industrial erosion can occur gradually—not through collapse in unit production, but through declining value per vehicle. Value can migrate outside Canada’s borders while assembly remains within it. Industrial decline does not require plant closure; it occurs through missed investment cycles and diminished mandates.

Strategic tensions

  • Canada preserves employment and assembly operations but fails to capture the high-growth, high-value segments of the industry.

  • Governments increase subsidies to retain lower-value layers of the industry, raising fiscal costs without improving ecosystem competitiveness.

What needs to happen

  • Canada’s current industrial policy is optimized for this scenario. Investment incentives are concentrated in construction investment, not operational subsidy, and the SR&ED program excludes activities that would have qualified otherwise.

  • Public policy measures that lower power costs, improve tax competitiveness, reduce regulatory friction, or strengthen critical minerals supply chains are made sparingly, owing to fiscal constraints and industrial uncertainty.

3. On-Ramp—Canada turns to Eurasia for investment

Key assumptions

  • Canadian exports to the U.S. are tariffed at 15%—7.5% effective  

  • Canada dangles market access as a carrot to attract foreign investment

  • Modest tariffs are maintained on Chinese imports

  • The EV transition proceeds. By 2040, most vehicles sold in Canada are BEVs 

  • Canadian auto policy pivots to attract non-U.S. investment

Taking the ‘On-Ramp’

As North American integration slowly fragments under persistent tariffs—Canadian exports to the U.S. face an effective 7.5% rate—Ottawa recasts trade and industrial policy around a strategic remissions framework. OEMs that invest in Canadian manufacturing, R&D, engineering, or certification receive preferential market access. OEMs that do not are tariffed or exit. The definition of ‘investment’ is deliberately widened, encompassing not just assembly and parts but software development, testing facilities, systems integration hubs, and regulatory certification capacity.

This attracts a different mix of firms than the traditional North American model. Asian and European OEMs—Hyundai, BMW, BYD, and a cohort of emerging EV and software-defined vehicle producers—view Canada as a gateway market and a hedge against concentration risk in China and the U.S. Some build or expand assembly operations in partnership or independently; others focus on engineering, testing, and specialized production tied to global supply chains. The Windsor-Montreal tech corridor becomes a hub for compliance infrastructure and software validation, positioning Canada as a trusted jurisdiction capable of certifying vehicles for multiple regulatory markets simultaneously.

Only Americans buy more than Canadians, per capita

The purchasing power of the Canadian consumer also comes into play. Only Americans buy more cars than Canadians, per capita. Canadians spend nearly $110 billion annually on cars. And 90% of those vehicles are built abroad. That gives Canada the ability to leverage market access to secure investments. Canadian consumer preferences shape which OEMs make the investment. The Ford F-Series has been Canada’s best-selling vehicle for 15 consecutive years; the Toyota RAV4 and Honda CR-V dominate the SUV market. This truck-and-SUV profile aligns Canada’s consumer market with higher-margin, higher-content vehicles—the segment where EV and software integration creates the most value. An OEM that wins the Canadian consumer for its next-generation PHEV pickup or smart crossover earns returns that justify the cost of establishing a Canadian R&D or certification presence.

Canada is a prized market for global carmakers

The EV transition proceeds in parallel. By 2040, BEVs represent the majority of vehicles sold in Canada, with PHEVs serving as the bridge for the truck and SUV segments where range anxiety remains most acute. OEMs without an assembly footprint in Canada pivot toward R&D investment, software integration, and certification—embedding themselves in Canadian value chains without owning a stamping press. Employment concentrates in high-skill STEM occupations: systems engineers, software architects, regulatory specialists, and battery chemists working along the Windsor-Montreal corridor.

Canada’s critical minerals endowment and clean power grid serve a dual function. They attract European or Asian OEMs seeking to diversify supply chains away from Chinese inputs, and they give Canada credibility as a partner in global battery supply chains. A vehicle manufacturer that sources lithium and copper through Canadian mining and processing operations builds a supply chain argument for regulators in Europe and the U.S.—and a reason to deepen its Canadian footprint.

Canadians have a penchant for heavier, higher value cars

By 2040, Canada assembles a million vehicles—the majority sold into its own market. Exports to the U.S. continue to decline, constrained by tariffs that impair competitiveness on lower-margin models. But the measure of Canada’s auto economy is not just units assembled. It is also the value embedded in modules, systems, and services that Canada increasingly exports: software stacks validated on testing tracks in Oshawa and demonstration facilities in Markham, battery modules assembled from Canadian minerals, and engineering services rendered for global vehicle programs. Canada is less central to North American production decisions and more embedded in global value chains—becoming a technology integrator. That’s a more defensible position than the branch-plant model it replaces.

Clean power offers Canadian auto sector a competitive advantage

Strategic tensions

  • Trade diversification reduces dependence on the U.S., but risks provoking retaliation or reduced cooperation with Canada’s largest economic and security partner.

  • Greater openness to Chinese OEMs raises national security, data governance, and supply chain integrity concerns.

What needs to happen

  • Canada’s remissions framework could trade market access for investment. OEMs with Canadian operations could import a certain quantity of vehicles duty-free if they maintain Canadian-based production and investment commitments.

  • To incentivize OEMs to re-tool their plants for high-mix, low-volume assembly, Ontario and Ottawa could co-create a capital cost offset fund (carefully designed and stringently monitored) and allow full immediate expensing of investments in automation, robotics, and digital manufacturing systems.

  • Ottawa could help boost demand for Canadian-made vehicles through public sector fleet procurement and restriction of EV incentives to vehicles made in Canada.

4. Off-Ramp-Assembly anchors leave, industrial policy becomes reactive

Key assumptions

  • The auto provisions of CUSMA are scrapped or severely weakened

  • Canada opens its market entirely to Chinese imports in exchange for enhanced market access for Canadian agri-food and energy exports to China

  • By 2040, most vehicles sold in Canada are BEVs

  • Canadian industrial policy is transformed from proactive to reactive

Taking the ‘Off-Ramp’

The Off-Ramp begins with a pattern that has governed Canada’s auto industry for the past quarter century: plants continue to operate, but with diminished mandates. In this case, the mandates expire, as investment decisions tilt toward jurisdictions with lower tariff exposure and stronger policy certainty.

Historically, Canada did not lose assembly capacity during the contraction phase of the cycle; it lost it during the recovery, when the production footprint failed to return, having initially migrated to right-to-work states like Alabama and Tennessee and eventually to Mexico, which grew from 1.9 million units assembled in 2000 to 4.2 million by 2025. The Off Ramp is that dynamic, accelerated and made permanent through the collapse of CUSMA’s auto provisions.

Canada faces an effective tariff of 12.5%, which makes export-oriented assembly economically unviable. Companies continue to assemble vehicles, losing money, but try to hold onto market share for the valuable out-of-warranty parts and servicing of vehicles.

Canada follows Australia in allowing its auto industry to exit.9 By 2040, all auto assembly plants in Canada have shuttered. Low-cost BEVs from Chinese players BYD, Geely, and Leapmotor—already competitive on price and increasingly competitive on quality—fill the demand gap left by departing North American OEMs. By 2040, most vehicles sold in Canada are Chinese-built BEVs. For the Canadian consumer, vehicle prices fall and emissions decline.

Canada's auto sector lost productive capacity during expansion phases

For the Canadian auto ecosystem, the consequences are structural and severe. Plants anchor a supplier network that generates more economic activity than the facilities themselves. Tier 1 suppliers maintain their global competitiveness and continue exporting to U.S. and international customers. But the loss of domestic assembly volume erodes the density that makes Canadian Tier 2 and Tier 3 suppliers viable. Tool-and-die shops—of which Canada has few global peers—lose their customer base. Specialized component manufacturers close or consolidate. Some follow production south; others simply shutter operations. The fastest-growing segments of the auto industry—software, batteries and electronic control systems—were never deeply rooted and fade away without assembly to anchor them. The corridor’s density advantage, built over a century of branch-plant production, dissipates within a decade of losing its anchor customers.

Auto sector job losses and wage stagnation persist in Canada

The knock-on effects run deep. Steel mills in Hamilton and Sault Ste. Marie that have long supplied automotive-grade sheet metal lose one of their primary customers, as do chemical and plastics producers in Sarnia. The advanced manufacturing ecosystem spanning auto, aerospace, and defence loses the cross-pollination of skills, tooling capability, and engineering talent that assembly concentration made possible. Windsor, Oshawa, and Ingersoll face sustained economic decline: unemployment spikes, real estate prices fall, and tax bases erode, generating long-term pressure on social programs and government transfers.

Canada’s industrial policy pivots from active support to triage. Two separate tracks are pursued:

  • Incentives to retool auto parts makers for defence manufacturing. Parts suppliers with the capital and capability to succeed in defence manufacturing are supported through retooling funds, accelerated depreciation, and public subsidy of workforce retraining.

  • Transition the remaining workforce. Fiscal supports for OEMs are repurposed to facilitate displaced workers through retirement bridging, retraining programs, relocation.

The Off Ramp makes clear what other scenarios obscure: auto manufacturing is not just an industry. It is an ecosystem anchored by assembly. Remove the anchor and lose the density required for industrial dynamism across advanced manufacturing.

Strategic tensions

  • The loss of auto ecosystem density accelerates broader industrial decline, weakening adjacent industries.

  • By ending production subsidies, Canada preserves fiscal resources in the short run but loses industrial capacity and capability in the long run. Ironically, this threatens long-term fiscal capacity.

  • The end of domestic auto assembly removes the rationale for protectionism. Canada opens its market entirely to Chinese EVs, which create more affordable options for consumers and reduces Canada’s transportation emissions.

  • Policy focuses on managing industrial transition, redeploying capital and labour toward adjacent sectors such as aerospace, robotics, defence, and advanced manufacturing, and preparing the workforce for a painful transition.

What needs to happen

  • Ottawa could co-create an industrial strategy with key provinces to support the transition of parts makers to defence equipment manufacturing, including financing supports, supply chain integration, workforce retraining, and re-tooling of facilities.

  • To support affected workers and communities, Ottawa could strengthen employment insurance (across eligibility, benefit level, and duration) and, with Ontario, co-fund a targeted program to support auto workforce retraining, retirement bridging, and relocation. 

  • In anticipation of Chinese entry into the Canadian market, Ottawa could enact a connected vehicle security and data governance framework that covers software, hardware, and data localization.

Canada’s auto sector of the future will most likely be some combination of what’s outlined above. What’s critical is that public policy remains flexible and adaptive to any possible future. Cutting across all the scenarios are five strategic considerations that Canada must confront:

  • Defend the North American manufacturing corridor. Canada’s industry was built on preferential access to the U.S. market. Roughly 90%-95% of auto exports flow south. This concentration creates both strength and vulnerability.

  • Compete for value inside the vehicle. Vehicles are becoming technology platforms, with a growing share of value embedded in software, electronics, batteries, and systems integration. Historically, Canadian policy focused only on assembly volumes and employment. This policy focus needs to expand as automation advances and more value migrates toward engineering, software, electronics, and digital services.

  • Use market access as leverage. By global standards, Canada’s domestic auto market is large and lucrative. Production capacity is presently geared towards export economics. Market access can function as a policy tool to secure investment commitments across a range of functions and assets, including manufacturing, R&D, testing, and regulatory certification.

  • Deploy public capital strategically. Governments in North America, Europe, and Asia have committed tens of billions to auto manufacturing, battery supply chains, and advanced automotive technologies. Canada faces a difficult balance. Large-scale subsidies can attract investment, but they also expose public finances to significant risk. The Parliamentary Budget Office estimates that between 2020 and 2024, the $46 billion in pledged investment across the EV supply chain was matched with nearly $53 billion in government support. Taxpayers need to see value for money.

  • Preserve the industrial ecosystem: Assembly plants anchor a network of suppliers, engineers, tool-and-die firms, logistics providers, and service businesses, but they also create demand for other heavy industries such as steel, aluminum, chemicals and plastics. If the assembly anchors weaken or close, the wider ecosystem that supports advanced manufacturing could lose the density required for dynamism and efficiency.

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The author would like to thank the experts who were consulted on this report, some of whom are listed below.

Tim Hollander, Toyota Canada

Brian Kingston, Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers Association

Scott MacKenzie, Toyota Canada

David Paterson, Government of Ontario

Brendan Sweeney, Pacific Manufacturing Association of Canada

Don Walker (Retired), Magna

Advanced Manufacturing Council. 2024. 2024 Advanced Manufacturing Council: Final Report. Toronto: Government of Ontario.

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Car Guide. 2026. ‘The 10 Best Selling Vehicles in Canada in 2025’, January 17.

Dykes, J.G., D. Anastakis. 2021. ‘Automotive Industry’, Canadian Encyclopedia.

Giswold, Jill. 2024. Tallying Government Support for EV Investment in Canada. Ottawa: Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer.

Helper, S. and T. Tucker. 2026. ‘Challenges and opportunities for North American auto industry in the 2026 USMCA renegotiation’, March 4. Washington: Brookings. 

International Energy Outlook. 2025. Global EV Outlook 2025: Expanding sales in diverse markets. Paris: IEA.

Statistics Canada. 2025a. ‘Number of Canadian commuters increases for fourth straight year in 2025’, The Daily, August 26.

McKinsey & Company. 2026. The automotive software and electronics market through 2035.

Statistics Canada. 2025b. ‘Vehicle registrations, 2024’, The Daily, October 17 26.

Statistics Canada. 2026. ‘New motor vehicle registrations, fourth quarter 2025’, The Daily, March 12.

Tanguary, Ray. 2018. Drive to Win: Automotive Advisor Report. Toronto: Government of Ontario.

Williams, G. 2026. Why are Chinese EV’s so Cheap?  New York: Rhodium Group.

Disclaimer

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In this episode, John Stackhouse visits Ross on the outskirts of Ottawa to talk with CEO David Ross about how the company grew from a small Canadian manufacturer into a global live-production infrastructure player. They discuss why the economics of live events changed so dramatically, how cheaper and more powerful screens transformed stadiums and concerts into multimedia platforms, and how Ross helps turn live data into visual storytelling through graphics, overlays, motion systems and production control.

Ross Video is one of Canada’s most consequential technology companies, even if most audiences have never heard of its name. They work across more than 100 countries. Their technology now sits inside countless modern live-event and broadcast experience:  On field graphics, robotic camera systems, data-rich stadium presentation, newsroom and broadcast automation and the production systems behind concerts, major sports, studios and major event coverage for clients like MLB, NFL, PGA, NHL, Premier League, Metallica, Taylor Switft, Coldplay the list goes on and on and on.

The conversation also surfaces a bigger business story. Ross describes its work as brand amplification technology, helping sports teams, venues, concerts and companies use screens, graphics, motion systems and production tools to deepen audience experience and strengthen commercial value. David lays out the company’s operating logic clearly: expand into adjacencies, acquire expertise when needed, keep founders and technical talent engaged, and never fall behind in technology. That approach shows up in Ross’s reinvestment model too: roughly one-third of the company is in R&D. This episode is about sports broadcast innovation, stadium technology, robotic cameras, concert production, real-time graphics, data storytelling, and the broader live-entertainment economy.

Ross sits inside a much larger market shift: a world where live sports, concerts, venue systems and production technology are becoming more immersive, more data-driven and more economically important.

Ross Video is a Canadian live-production technology company founded in 1974 by engineer John Ross. It grew from broadcast switchers into a broader infrastructure business spanning graphics, robotics, routing, automation, newsroom tools, replay, audio and experiential systems.

Ross helps power the production layer behind live sports, concerts, studios and major events. In the episode, David Ross describes the company as being in the business of keeping famous customers famous through high-end video.

A big part of Ross’s work is turning data into visual storytelling. David Ross explains that the company is not just about moving video. It is about presenting data in interesting and consumable ways through statistics, strike zones, heat maps, player data and other graphics that help audiences follow the event more clearly.

Ross grew by expanding into adjacent categories, building products for the same customer base, and acquiring companies with expertise it did not already have. David Ross describes the model as moving into adjacencies rather than trying to invent everything from scratch.

David Ross says he was told early in his career to never fall behind in technology, and Ross has taken that to heart by overinvesting in research and development. He says the company has about 1,500 employees, including roughly 500 in R&D.

From MLB to Metallica: The Canadian company redefining live events

SPEAKERS

David Ross, John Stackhouse

John Stackhouse 00:00:10

Hi, it’s John here. I want you to close your eyes for a moment and picture a few things.

First, let’s start with a pro football game and those seemingly magical first down lines that stretch across your screen. Or, what about those golf games where you can now hover over the green and feel a bit like a bird? And who can forget those incredible moments at the Milano Cortina games where, thanks to new camera technology, it felt like we were all part of the ski cross race. Okay, keep your eyes closed and imagine the last concert you were at. It probably didn’t feel like a concert that you might’ve gone to years or decades ago. Concerts today, especially in big stadiums, are explosive in sound, but you have 360-degree imagery all around you. The performers on stage are now, well, just part of the concert. Behind all of this is a remarkable Canadian company, and odds are you’ve never heard of it until now.

Ross Video sits on the outskirts of Ottawa in a really unassuming brown brick campus that could pass, well, for a community college. Then you walk inside and start to see some of the tells. The first is an Emmy Award on the reception desk, and then there’s a wall covered in the caps of almost every major league sports team you can name because this company has worked with them all. Open some more doors, and you come across green screen studios, robotic labs, and control systems being built for some of the biggest live productions on Earth. Ask Taylor Swift who created some of the magic of the Eras Tour, and she might say Ross Video. You’ll get the same answer from Metallica, Coldplay, and every team in Major League Baseball.

This is one of the most innovative companies I think I’ve come across anywhere. It’s also part of a much bigger economic story, one worth roughly $ 500 billion globally. That’s the live entertainment ecosystem that is reshaping how audiences and businesses experience everything from sport to politics to music. Ross Video was started by a great Canadian, John Ross, an engineer whose analog video switcher brought the 1976 Montreal Olympics to the world through the CBC. His son, David, another engineer, took that foundation and built it into a live production powerhouse that’s now operating in more than 100 countries all from this corner of Ottawa. Ross Video strikes me as the kindest story Canadians really need to hear more of these days. It’s about innovation, it’s about global ambition, and it’s about doing a lot of incredible things, including building robotic cameras right here in Canada. That’s the vision and the passion of pretty much everyone in the country, but especially of its CEO, David Ross.

David, welcome to Disruptors.

David Ross 00:03:14

Thank you.

John Stackhouse 00:03:15

I find this, as I said in the introduction, the most interesting company so many people have not heard from. I want to kick off just asking, how do you describe Ross Video to people who are not familiar with it?

David Ross 00:03:29

I thought of a billion different sort of elevator pitches, and I think one of the ones that I like is, “We’re in the business of keeping our famous customers famous through the use of high-end video.” Because if you’re using video at the level that Ross Video provides, you want to reach a lot of people. If you want to reach a lot of people, you’re either famous or you want to be famous.

John Stackhouse 00:03:49

You joined the company 30 years ago, 35 years ago?

David Ross 00:03:51

1991.

John Stackhouse 00:03:52

35 years ago.

David Ross 00:03:54

Right.

John Stackhouse 00:03:55

What did you see or feel as you were starting to take over the company that allowed you to grow it to what it is today?

David Ross 00:04:01

Fear. I came home from university, and my mom said, “You need to go upstairs and talk to your father. He’s one signature away from selling the company.” I wasn’t sure if I was going to want to start work at Ross Video. I was interested in working for maybe NASA or… I heard that Bill Gates came by the University of Waterloo, I’m an engineering student at the time, and I talked a good game about joining Microsoft. I thought I had a big career in joining Ross Video, town of 1, 200 people. Dad just laid off two thirds of the company in the recession from ’89 to ’91. Oh, boy, that’s not what I envision for the grand future of my life, I guess. I talked to dad and I said, “So what’s going on?” He says, “Well, having a challenge seeing a future with the company. I’ve got an offer,” and I said, “Well, maybe we can turn it around together.” He actually looked at me and he said, “Well, there’s a lot of satisfaction you can get from building something out of nothing.”

John Stackhouse 00:04:57

Take us back to the origin story and what your dad, John Ross, still with us, developed in the early 1970s and how that started to transform how we view and experience sport in particular.

David Ross 00:05:11

Well, back in the early 1970s, it was all about the technology. Was your product more functional, cheaper, using the latest tech? But I don’t think anybody who was really focusing on transforming the world is… You have a product, the other guy has a product, you try to make a better product.

John Stackhouse 00:05:27

Right. He developed the 16-4-

David Ross 00:05:30

Yes.

John Stackhouse 00:05:30

… switcher that, for those of us a certain age, actually made the Montreal Olympics as memorable as they are in a good way. What was it about that device that laid the foundation for what Ross is today?

David Ross 00:05:44

I think it was kind of the right product at the right time. It was exactly the right size. It was a really good price point. It was very powerful for the amount of electronics. My dad was an analog design genius, you could sort of say, where he would be able to see the circuitry in a way that was more reliable, higher quality for less parts than anybody else seemed to be able to do anywhere in the world, and so you can say that the company was founded on innovation.

John Stackhouse 00:06:14

It’s fascinating what has happened to the live event business, sport, and entertainment. They’ve become multimedia platforms, not just experiences. So much of what we all enjoy and maybe take for granted is thanks to Ross Technologies. How has the live event market evolved, and what have been those kind of signature changes over the last decade even that have allowed you to be where you are?

David Ross 00:06:40

There’s a couple of things that drove change. I think the biggest one was the fact that the screens got cheaper. It used to be LEDs or the jumbotrons. Basically, it was a television monitor for every pixel, and they took enormous amounts of power, very expensive, very low resolution. As the LED walls started to become more and more dense, cheaper, less power, then people said, “How do we drive all those pixels?” It’s not just one screen. It’s many screens of all different sizes of all different shapes throughout the venue, inside the venue, and outside the venue. And then you think about the canvas of the field as being another set of pixels that you’re drawing on in a virtual world. So it’s just this explosion of what you can see.

John Stackhouse 00:07:30

So there’s been a kind of a tech enablement. That’s also changed expectations in all of us as fans. I can’t even imagine a concert without a screen. If it was just a screen allowing me to see a closeup of the stage, I’d probably be disappointed. Same at the sporting event, hard to imagine a game, rightly or wrongly, without a screen. How have we changed as the end user in your view over the last decade or two?

David Ross 00:07:54

We’re getting much more used to a lot of data coming at us. It used to be that your high school gym that would just show the score and almost nothing else than score and the time left, and now you see what the scores are, you see the statistics, the strike zone, you may see the golf ball curve, the heat map on the floor of all the different places where they took their shots from basketball. You see all the data about all the players of everything that they’ve ever done in their lives, and it just keeps going. It’s not just about moving video, it’s about presenting that data in an interesting and consumable way. There’s lots of periods of times where the things aren’t happening, and the goal I think of some of the sports teams and the venues, as well as just broadcasters in general, is how do you keep people’s attention?

In a stadium in particular, the moment that the play stops is the moment where the stadium sort of kicks in and says, “Now, we’re going to have some fun, and we’re going to do it together, and we’re going to enjoy things.” And maybe at the same time, they’ll work in the ads that sort of pay for the whole experience at the same time, but there’s a really interesting weaving of the way that the game moves into the experience, and the advertisers move in and out, and the statistics move in and out. There’s a lot going on.

John Stackhouse 00:09:14

Talk a bit about the businesses that are between the fan and either the performer or the athlete, usually a stadium, of course, the team. I’m curious what they’re looking for, because you talk to them all the time, that’s your business. What are they looking to fulfill in building out, frankly, really expensive operations, billion-dollar stadiums and the whole district around them, as well as the cost of putting a team on the field or an artist on stage?

David Ross 00:09:42

They’ve got a lot of things that they’re juggling at once. You could sort of say at the base of it all is their brand. That sporting team, that venue, that brand has value, and so it’s all about the fact that there’s only one hockey team in Ottawa, there’s only one football team in Los Angeles as a professional level. Because there is that uniqueness and you have this fan following, how do you keep that excitement up, keep the eyeballs on that instead of some other sport, because there’s competition, or some other event, and keep it fun? It all has to hold together.

John Stackhouse 00:10:19

These stadiums have become destinations. They’re tourist destinations. I think of AT& T. There’s only one Dallas Cowboys, but there’s also only one AT& T Stadium. It’s an attraction not because of the Cowboys on their own, but because of the experience, including the screens and what you provide for that.

David Ross 00:10:37

Yeah, and that’s actually a really interesting thing about what’s going on in the business that we’re in. Because you could say a long time ago, we would be in the business of providing the technology for a television broadcaster. If you think about a sports team or a corporation now that’s using our technology, it’s a brand amplification technology. So it’s not about how much money goes into the equipment that you buy and then how much advertising do you get on the output, it’s how does that change the perception of AT& T.

John Stackhouse 00:11:08

That’s a really interesting view of the business strategy, but the brands are not just companies now. What do you figure is still growing? Because 10, 15 years ago, there were probably a lot of media analysts who said that all of this is going to be disrupted and the individual will take it over.

David Ross 00:11:25

They were wrong.

John Stackhouse 00:11:27

Why were they wrong? I was probably among those who were wrong, so tell me why I was wrong.

David Ross 00:11:32

Well, it’s both. It doesn’t have to be an either/ or. More people certainly watch YouTube than anything else in the world. Feeding into YouTube, you have everything from… I just uploaded a picture of my dog that I did myself to some very professional productions and even movies. It’s a continuum, and there’s just a certain place where Ross plays, which is in that higher-end tier.

John Stackhouse 00:11:59

Let’s talk a bit about the amazing technologies that you both built and literally acquired and then developed. I want to start with Artimo, because we just walked through your lab across the street, saw these robotic cameras zipping around. Those are developed here in an Ottawa suburb, they’re built not far away in Iroquois, Ontario, and they’re transforming so much of what we all kind of take for granted seeing on a screen. We’ll talk about some of the other innovations, but tell us why Artimo is so important in your mind.

David Ross 00:12:31

One of the things that’s interesting about Artimo, you could start from a customer point of view, it’s always good to start from customer point of view, is Artimo replaces different types of manual moves. Instead of it cruising behind a camera, there’s a limit to how much they can do with teleprompters on it and so on. Being able to have a motorized system doing repeatable moves, particularly in a newsroom or at a corporate studio, you need technology to do camera motion properly. It used to be when you’re watching television news and you even still see it in the movies, you imagine rows and rows of people yelling back and forth, “Do you have that shot? Do that shot,” and everything else. Now, at least in 700 newsrooms around the world, even at the highest level, there’s basically one guy with a mouse clicking and mumbling to himself or herself. The computer system is controlling Artimo to make sure that it’s positioned with exactly the right shot, with the right depth of field, and everything else for what is coming up next in the playlist.

John Stackhouse 00:13:34

You also have a whole range of fascinating technologies that have transformed not just what’s behind the camera but what’s on the screen, and I’m thinking of some of the layering technologies. We all kind of take for granted now those red zone markers on an NFL or CFL field, lots of other layering that has made the game experience much more dynamic and interesting. Walk us through a bit of your thinking on how that’s evolved and how that has transformed the viewing experience.

David Ross 00:14:05

Oh, wow. In football, for example, you do have the 1st and 10, the yellow lines and the blue lines and things like that. We didn’t invent that. I will say we didn’t invent it, but we certainly got into the business. One of the places that we did very well is with American college sports, American college football, because they weren’t able to afford whatever was out there at the time at the professional level, and they want to be able to get that on our in-venue as well. Because people are used to watching it on TV, “I want to see it on the big screen in the stadium as well.” We don’t want anybody to come into the stadium and feel like they’re getting a lesser experience than if they stayed at home and watched it on TV. So how do I get the same stats? How do I get the same experience and then have the in-person side of things? It’s the same thing that same technology is used for infield advertising as well, and that gives them ability to charge more for advertisements that way.

John Stackhouse 00:15:02

We’ve also seen incredible changes to the functioning of camera, and I’m thinking of the spidercam, which is another of… It was your acquisition. But wow, what you’ve done with it… Even the Milano Cortina experience, I still can visualize feeling like I was on the speed skating track. The golf experience now, I think you took it to the British Open-

David Ross 00:15:26

We did.

John Stackhouse 00:15:26

… where it now kind of goes over the green, which has just made golf so much more interesting, seeing it from the bird’s-eye view quite literally. Walk us through what you saw in spidercam when you bought the company, and what you are trying to do with it, where you see it going from here.

David Ross 00:15:45

Interesting. We started with the studio robotics, like Artimo, and things that we did before, and that was part of acquisitions. We realized that there’s a lot of value in being able to capture video with camera motion and doing a volume of space. We realized that we were doing really well with studios inside, and then we inverted them, and we could look down on the studio, and so we got that volume thing happening. What can we do outside? Of course, the natural thing is cable cameras. We had been working with spidercam in the past because they would give us telemetry information, and we’d do augmented reality with our graphics technology, and so you could sort of see stats floating in the air or something like that as they’re capturing some event. We already had experience with what we could do and saw synergy with one part of our business moving with another part of the business, just camera motion.

I did actually nudge them a few times saying, “If this is ever for sale, give me a call.” And then one day, the call came, and so we made it happen. What’s beautiful of it as well is spidercam is tier one. It’s the leader in the world. It’s the biggest brand and the biggest part of that business. So for Ross, it’s actually a brand amplification as well, because we are there at the Olympics, we are there at away games for the NFL when it’s in Europe. We’re there now for Premier League, we’re there for cricket all over the world, and we are there for the playoffs right now at the Montreal Canadiens where we put a spidercam into the arena for the first time.

John Stackhouse 00:17:23

Where do you see cameras going from here? We’re all now familiar with drone cameras, which are transforming the event experience, sport, as well as a concert. We’re getting familiar with on-body cameras, whether it’s the ref cam or the player cam. Where do you see it going over the next few years?

David Ross 00:17:41

I think it’s going to become more and more accessible. You’re going to see them more often in more fixed installations. Spidercams, not too long ago, if you wanted to buy one, if you had a million dollars, then that’s a good start. Maybe you could get something for a quarter million dollars, if you’re lucky. Basically, they were rental units, and we would fly them halfway around the world, and these things have winches the size of refrigerators and heavier than a refrigerator, and there’s four of them, and then there’s a big centerpiece in the cameras. It’s an ordeal, and you’re going up into the rafters of the stadium, and you’re putting up pulleys and worrying about safety. Every single game, you then pull it down, and you put it someplace else. We’ve just launched what we call the i-Series for the spidercam, and that means that more venues can own them and get their costs down, which means that you’ll see them in more places.

John Stackhouse 00:18:36

You do much more than just make this stuff and sell it or rent it into the market. You help build literally the infrastructure, help, whether it’s teams or concert tours, create the experience. That’s a very different business than making a robotic camera in Iroquois, Ontario and putting it on a plane somewhere. How are you thinking about the soup to nuts, if I can put it that way, aspect of this business?

David Ross 00:19:01

It’s all about adjacencies and understanding how to move into an adjacent business. When I started at Ross, all we had were analog production switchers. We had about four or five products. They’re about 10 years out of date, to be quite honest. How do you go from that to where we are today? So we started designing new products that would be sold at the same time to the same customer, made in the same factory, into the same market, with the same sales channel, and then you start moving into adjacencies. The challenge was when we started moving from traditional products to new ones. You can waste a whole lot of time and money by saying, “Let’s just invent this thing from scratch,” because you need to have the knowledge and the trust and so on. So the easiest way to do that is to acquire companies and acquire them hopefully with the founders or the genius that’s behind those companies and then don’t piss them off and keep them around.

What a lot of companies don’t do is the founders like to stay with what they know, what they know, what they can control, and so there’s a leap of faith of management where you say, “No, no, I’m going to start doing things that I’m not an expert in.” I’m a computer engineer, “Robotics? That’s madness,” or you say, “We’re a manufacturer, and we’re a supplier. We don’t get involved in our customer’s affairs.” And then we have Rocket Surgery. We buy that company, and we have great people in that company, and you build that up, and all of a sudden they’re talking about the fan experience.

John Stackhouse 00:20:31

Rocket Surgery is kind of like an agency, right?

David Ross 00:20:33

Kind of like, inside of Ross. They’re people that combine the skills of graphics and programming and organization and understanding the sport, the venue, the market, the nationality, and they come in, and they will make the stadium experience real. This vertical integration of having the design, the manufacturing, and then the creative services that are on top of that, you have to, as an owner of a company, like a tech company, be able to say, “We can get into services. We can get into art,” which is a long way from analog design or software. But when you put all these things together, it’s magic.

John Stackhouse 00:21:12

Is the business model and the approach, the knack to this, very different for live music, for concerts, than for professional sports versus outdoor events, corporate events, or general public events? Do you have to take a different approach to each, or is an event and an experience an event and an experience?

David Ross 00:21:32

There’s a common thread through them, of video and organization and so on. But yes, each one is different, and so you have to be able to know, “How do I get those relationships, and how do I understand that concerts and video for concerts is very different than video for a stadium?” For example, in the stadium, you’re talking about wow moments when the touchdown happens and the data and the advertisements and the stats and things like that. In a concert, you could argue that there’s almost not a wow moment. The whole thing is just this burn that happens the entire duration, and now you’re interested in keeping up with what the performers are doing and getting those shots, whether it’s putting video on the screens that is supposed to be synced to what the performer has rehearsed, and hopefully they’re following in live, versus having a spidercam like at a Coldplay or Metallica concert, which we also do as well, and knowing how to get those beautiful shots up on those screens.

John Stackhouse 00:22:31

And I’m guessing, especially on the creative side, on the concert side, that you have to find the right rhythms and beats quite literally. But Metallica is probably different from Taylor Swift in terms of what they’re looking for on stage, is that true or not?

David Ross 00:22:48

Actually, I have heard, I talked to some of the camera operators in a spidercam, for example, you’ve got the engineer in the background, but then you’ve got a pilot who’s flying the camera rig around, and then you’ve got the camera operator who is taking the shot from that moment and zooming in and panning around, and they work together to get the shot. From what I understand, Taylor Swift is always the same all the time, she is perfect, and Metallica is like, “Follow them,” because it could be different at any given time.

John Stackhouse 00:23:22

That’s rock and roll. Yeah.

David Ross 00:23:24

I can’t believe I’m involved in this stuff. It’s like, “I went to computer engineering in Waterloo. How did this happen?”

John Stackhouse 00:23:32

How will AI and robotics change what you’re doing now?

David Ross 00:23:36

AI is coming for software and software development and things like that.

John Stackhouse 00:23:41

Are you seeing that in your own software development?

David Ross 00:23:43

Starting to. It’s an accelerator, but it’s also an enabler. There’s a whole bunch of dimensions about how AI is going to impact our business and every business, and we’re just learning what that is on a daily basis right now. Because every time you think you know the way it stands, it changes yet again, and it can do something new. We’re just keeping up as best we can. We’re a software company and a services company and a hardware company and a robotics company, and there’s threads that tie all those things together. I like to think that those things build a competitive moat no matter what happens in the world going forward. Having a network of dissimilar things that require a broad range of expertise that can’t possibly be in one person’s head that require the organization of humans to pull it together is I think the sort of thing that makes for a strong company going forward.

John Stackhouse 00:24:34

You’ve built an incredible company here. You’ve got a really strong culture, strong values, and I’m sensing it’s very much about the team, the Ross team. Often when you do an acquisition, you’re not entirely sure of the kind of culture that you’re acquiring. You’re getting the talent and technology, but also the culture. How do you, as the CEO, preserve and grow the Ross culture?

David Ross 00:24:55

One of the things my dad said to me many years ago, he said, “A company is only people. It’s not about the products you have. That’s a moment in time. It’s not about the technology you have. That’s also just a moment in time. It’s not about the customers you have. You can lose them. It’s about the people.” And if you think about the sorts of things I was talking about, I don’t know anything about robotics. I know a bit more now, but I’m not a world expert. I don’t know everything that there is to know about creating a great stadium experience. You know what? I haven’t written code in 35 years. Everything that I have had this company create is through encouraging and enabling great people in the company. So if you take them for granted and you don’t listen to them, then you’re going to be in trouble. It turns out that if you treat people really well and you listen to them and you pay them well and you do all the right things, a culture just emerges out of all that, and it’s a pretty good one.

John Stackhouse 00:25:54

You also have a strong code of ethics, which every visitor can see as they walk through the door, and it is beautifully in plainspeak. One of the points that really jumped out at me was, “We don’t ship crap.” You also have a wonderful line about… You say that, when people aren’t sure what to do and there’s no one around to ask, “Just do what in your heart is right.” And then, in brackets, it says, “You can hire a helicopter,” which is I think a nice kind of cheeky way of saying, “Do what’s right, but don’t box yourself in.”

David Ross 00:26:23

Yeah, that’s an empowerment statement. It’s also a customer statement, and it’s also a company statement. Companies have an inherent drive towards bureaucracy and squeezing out individual actions and things like that. Often, those individual actions are the things that save the company or make the company great. When I added that to the list, I knew that the day would come when we would be a bigger company and we would be vanilla, like everyone else, and people would just punch the time clock, do their thing, say, “It’s not my job,” and go home, and leave the customer stranded or leave the company stranded. How do we put this escape hatch into the company in a way that’s memorable? When I talk about, “You may rent helicopters if necessary,” it’s like, “Well, somebody wrote that. They must mean it.”

John Stackhouse 00:27:15

A human wrote that?

David Ross 00:27:16

Yeah, a human wrote that.

John Stackhouse 00:27:22

Where does Ross go from here?

David Ross 00:27:25

In some ways, you could say it’s completely different. In other ways, it’s more of the same. The industry is going to continue to evolve. Video is going to be changing, AI is going to change things, and the world will just continue to change. As long as I continue to encourage our people to pay attention to the early warning signs, or if we’re late to react and catch up, I think we’ll be okay. What’s the same is the way we manage people. Dad was right, a company’s only people. So when the company moves forward, there’s a lot of me just… Following what other people are telling me is the exact right thing to do, and they’re the experts, and they go, “Yeah, let’s do that. Let’s go ahead.” The secret of success is hire smart people and don’t piss them off.

John Stackhouse 00:28:14

Yeah. If you’ve got a talent challenge, you probably have greater challenges, because good companies just attract good talent. I’ve read Ross has never had a down year. Is that correct?

David Ross 00:28:25

Since the day I joined, yeah, we haven’t had a down year. It’s been close sometimes, but we have not.

John Stackhouse 00:28:30

But that’s phenomenal through a few recessions, lots of disruptions. Is there something that has been consistent through that time beyond what we’ve talked about that has enabled that?

David Ross 00:28:41

I think it’s never stopped pushing. When we’re a very small company, I got a chance to have lunch with somebody who was a billionaire at the time, and I was like, “What question do I ask a billionaire over lunch?” I’m 27 years old, so I asked, I said, “Can you give me some advice?” He said, “Never fall behind in technology. You can have great people, you can have great customers, you can have a great brand, and it all seems great until you fall behind in technology. When you’re a tech company, that’s everything in the end. They’ll just feel really sorry that they can’t buy from you anymore because you don’t have the stuff that they need, but they will go someplace else.” I took that to heart, and so we overinvest, you could say, in research and development and push as hard as we possibly can afford to do every single year into R& D. We got 1, 500 people, and manufacturing is in that 1, 500 people. 500 of them are in research and development.

John Stackhouse 00:29:44

That counters so much of the Canadian narrative, that idea of having a third of your employees in R& D, “Very un-Canadian, sounds more like Germany or Japan or Korea.” What are we missing as a country so that we’re now more like Ross Video leaning into the R& D opportunity?

David Ross 00:30:02

I don’t run the other companies. I guess I don’t know exactly. I think there’s a lot of dimensions to what’s going wrong though. Historically, sometimes Canada was known as a place that had lots of R& D but not enough marketing. I took an idea of saying, “You know what? The Americans are very successful in the way that they create great technology, but then they make a lot of noise about it, and they take it to the world, and they push hard.” I remember talking to… just randomly, it was a British company I was looking to buy. I said, “Why is your product the best? Convince me,” and they went, “Well, it’s not really the best. There’s other good ones out there as well.” It’s like, “Stop being modest. You’re trying to sell me your company. This is not what I want to hear,” and we actually didn’t buy that company in the end.

But you have to be likable, hopefully, around the world, and that might be something that Canadians are good at, but at the same time, be aggressive. You realize you are in a worldwide fight to get your product out, and you’re in a worldwide fight for R& D resources that you need to make the best tech and sell it. The best investment funding that you can possibly get is from your customers. It’s called profits, and you take those profits and you reinvest. There’s so many in business school, I swear, they say, “You have a great idea, so the first thing you need is get an investor.” And then where’s that investor coming from? Probably from the United States or not from Canada. And then you have to do a second round, a third round. You’re going to do all these…

What? At what point are you going to make money? At what point do you own anything of your own company? And now you’re diluted so much, then your investors are going to sell eventually, and they’re going to sell to people they know, and it’s not going to be Canada that they’re going to sell to because they’re American or they’re European or they’re from Singapore or whatever. In those early stages, those Canadian startups have already put the landmines in, saying that they’re not going to be Canadian because that’s where they got their investment. If you could say, “I have this great idea. How do I get the first sale and maybe a bank loan and maybe some friends and family?” Start small, but build it, and have patience. 35 years, I’ve been doing this. This doesn’t happen overnight. If I wanted to do it faster, sure, I could have raised a bunch of money, but I wouldn’t be working here today. It’d be owned by someplace else and be a different name on the front of the door.

John Stackhouse 00:32:20

What a masterclass in management and innovation thinking. I’ve learned so much from this conversation, including never stop learning, but never stop pushing, never stop investing. Really great messages. As we wrap up, take us back to the stadium or to the mosh pit in your own experience, what has excited you most as a fan, as a viewer, as a spectator from what you’ve experienced and where that may be taking us as similar viewers and participants in this multimedia revolution?

David Ross 00:33:03

I think it’s just a sense of wonder that you go to these stadiums, you go to these environments, and you just sit there and go, “Wow, look at what these customers did with what we made. All the people that they’re touching and they’re impacting, it’s wonderful and it’s just fun.” I’m sorry.

John Stackhouse 00:33:20

That’s a great final management lesson. There’s no greater thrill for a business operator than seeing your customers succeed. You got them to do it with your tools, but watch their success, and the ultimate end user enjoy it.

David Ross, thank you so much for being on Disruptors.

David Ross 00:33:35

My pleasure. Thanks for inviting me.

John Stackhouse 00:33:39

There’s a version of the Ross Video story that’s kind of easy to tell, Canadian company, great products, famous clients, and good values. But I think there’s an even more interesting version. This is a company that’s been in the content production infrastructure business for more than 50 years, not chasing the spotlight, but building the systems that make the spotlight possible. It seems every time the industry shifts, Ross shows up, often making the shift possible in the first place. It’s also a story of long-term thinking. The companies that will matter in 10 years are the ones like Ross that are making the long bets right now. I think there’s something kind of Canadian about all that, creating the spotlight rather than seeking it, thinking long-term rather than chasing the short-term, and working with others while being super competitive. It’s the kind of innovation and disruption that we’re going to need more of in the years and decades ahead.

You’ve been listening to Disruptors, an RBC podcast. Please rate, review, and follow us on Apple or Spotify. That helps more people find conversations like the one you heard today. And if you want to know more about the sport and entertainment business, check out our show notes. There’s a great compendium piece there that will take you much deeper into this fascinating world. And if you’re looking for more ideas and insights, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

There, you’ll find critical insights to help businesses, policymakers, and communities make more informed decisions in an ever-changing world.

I’m John Stackhouse. Thanks for listening.

Disclaimer

rbc_tl_disclaimer

The Strait of Hormuz has now been effectively closed for 69 days, and with global jet fuel prices now over US$180 per barrel—roughly double a year ago—the costs are showing up on earnings calls. Delta Air Line’s fuel bill is expected to rise by US$2.5 billion this quarter alone and the company has signalled higher fares and fees to help offset the costs. The disruption has already driven Spirit Airlines into bankruptcy, with the potential for more as prices remain elevated.

By the numbers: more than half of globally traded jet fuel is impacted

  • 23% of seaborne jet fuel flows directly through Hormuz, primarily to European markets.

  • 40-50% of global jet fuel exports originate from Asia, and those exports are down two-thirds from pre-crisis levels—starved of Middle Eastern feedstock.

  • China, a major Asian fuel exporter, reduced exports of jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline exports by as much as 33% in March to safeguard domestic market from disruptions.

  • With Europe getting 75% of its jet fuel net imports from the Middle East, the IEA warned in mid-April that parts of the region could run out by the end of May if countries don’t find alternatives

The bigger picture: energy security runs through the refinery as well

As Hormuz illustrates, energy security is not just about who controls the crude and (as is the case with critical minerals) final products matter. Along with China, South Korea and Thailand, which are also major fuel exporters, also capped shipments on most refined fuel exports as countries struggle with Middle East supplies or protect their domestic aviation sectors.

India’s response is instructive. Rather than scrambling for alternative imports, it moved to reduce structural exposure—amending its aviation fuel regulations to allow blending with domestic agricultural feedstock. Energy security and clean fuels became the same policy.

In Canada, an often-cited vulnerability has come to the fore

Canada’s physical exposure to Hormuz is limited, but Ontario and Quebec remain structurally reliant on imported refined petroleum products, of which jet fuel is the largest. That import dependency sits with the U.S., which is more than willing to use energy trade as leverage. The Hormuz crisis revisits a harder question for Canada: what is the right shape of tomorrow’s energy integration with the U.S.?

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF): Where clean and secure meet?

Canada is different from Asia in one important respect: we sit on a lot of feedstock. Oil, of course, but also canola, tallow, and municipal waste, which flow into operating renewable diesel infrastructure, most notably in Strathcona, Alta., through Imperial Oil and Come by Chance refinery in Newfoundland and Labrador, Nfld., (Braya). Yet, Canada produces zero SAF.

SAF accounted for less than 1% of jet fuel consumed globally in 2025. That number is expected to climb to 4% by the end of the decade, according to BloombergNEF. And while energy security has not been part of that growth story, it could be the catalyst, as India proved, that brings new participants to the table. For Canada, that would not just be a domestic resilience argument—but a growing export opportunity for the energy and agricultural sector.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

–Shaz Merwat, Energy Policy Lead

The surge in oil prices and another spike in gold exports pushed Canada’s trade balance back into surplus in March.

According to Assistant Chief Economist Nathan Janzen: “Significant trade uncertainty remains with negotiations on CUSMA renewal likely to intensify in coming months, but we continue to expect, as a base-case, that a more stable U.S. tariff backdrop in 2026 (albeit still at significantly higher tariff rates for some products) will leave trade as less of a headwind to growth than it was in 2025.”

Read more in ‘Canadian trade balance back in surplus as energy prices surge’ here.

U.S. trade court rejects Trump’s latest global tariff push

  • The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled against President Trump’s latest 10% global tariffs, finding the administration improperly used Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to justify broad-based duties tied to trade deficits.

  • The decision is another legal setback for the administration’s tariff strategy following earlier rulings against the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The White House is expected to appeal and find other ways to implement tariffs.

Trump extends EU deadline while new regulatory disputes emerge

  • President Trump extended the deadline for the EU to implement elements of last summer’s trade arrangement until July 4, while warning tariffs could further increase if Brussels does not follow through on commitments.

  • Separately, major U.S. business groups are pushing Washington to intervene against the EU’s updated Product Liability Directive, arguing new rules around digital products and consumer claims could expose firms to significant litigation risk.

Chinese outbound M&A accelerates

  • Chinese overseas mergers and acquisitions reached a five-year high in Q1, totaling US$9.6 billion and marking the fifth consecutive quarter of growth, according to Rhodium Group data.

  • The increase comes as Beijing simultaneously tightens controls over inbound foreign acquisitions in strategic sectors, including retroactively blocking Meta’s acquisition of Chinese AI app Manus.

Auto sector pushes for continuity under CUSMA

  • Major North American auto industry associations urged the Trump administration to extend CUSMA, warning against splitting the pact into separate bilateral arrangements.

  • Industry groups representing GM, Toyota, Tesla, Volkswagen, Hyundai and others argued that separate agreements would increase regulatory complexity and disrupt integrated North American supply chains during a period of rapid technological transition.

Mexico ramps up commercial engagement with Canada ahead of USMCA review

  • This week, Mexico launched one of its largest trade missions to Canada in recent memory, bringing more than 240 companies to Toronto and Montreal for over 1,800 business meetings.

  • The outreach comes as Ottawa and Mexico City position themselves ahead of the upcoming CUSMA review, though both countries continue to take visibly different approaches to engagement with the Trump administration.

–Thomas Ashcroft, Global Issues Policy Lead