Skip to main content
Imagine a mathematical problem so complex, it would take today’s most sophisticated supercomputer 9,000 years to solve. Now, imagine a new type of computer that could solve the very same problem in just a fraction of a second. That’s the promise of quantum computing—and it turns out, Canada is well on its way to becoming a global force in the research, development, and implementation of that cutting-edge technology. On this episode of Disruptors, an RBC podcast, host John Stackhouse is joined by the CEO of Toronto-based Xanadu Quantum Technologies Inc, Christian Weedbrook. Just last year, Xanadu became one of the first companies on the planet to successfully achieve what’s known as “quantum advantage” or “quantum supremacy”; in essence, demonstrating that a programmable quantum device can solve a problem that no classical computer could in a realistic time frame. There’s also a special guest appearance by Dr. Stephanie Simmons, Founder and Chief Quantum Officer at Photonic. She was also recently named the co-chair of the newly announced National Quantum Strategy of Canada. The next step is to scale the technology, and develop real-world applications that can be used to tackle pressing problems like pandemics and climate change. But plenty of other countries, including Israel, India, China and the United States, are competing with Canada in this race, and Europe is also investing billions into quantum research and development. So how can Canada maintain the pole position? What’s needed in terms of government support and investment? And why did Christian name his company after an infamous box-office bomb from the 1980s? You’ll have to listen to find out! Episode Notes: You can learn more about Canada’s quantum strategy on the Federal Government’s website. Xanadu has posted a series of resources online, including a helpful explainer video, which you can find here. RBC Capital Markets also wrote about the promise of quantum technology back in December 2022, you can read that article here. You can learn more about Dr. Stephanie Simmons and Photonic here.
Speaker 1 [00:00:01] Hi. Is John here. You may feel like 2023 is about to be a really complex year. No one seems to have a clear handle on inflation or the war in Ukraine or whether Donald Trump is going to make a comeback. And then there’s climate change. Demographic clifts and COVID variance kind of makes my head hurt. I didn’t even bother with New Year’s predictions this year as I just couldn’t think through the complexities that we seem to be drowning in. I suspect complexity is a word you’ll hear a lot in 2023, but don’t let it intimidate you. Even the world’s best computers are having trouble figuring out those complex problems. Winning Jeopardy may be easy. You just need to know every bit of information ever created, which, for a good supercomputer, is like a chip shot. But predicting the future requires a whole different level of thinking and computing. One could say it’s a quantum difference. That’s another word you may hear a lot this year. Quantum. Speaker 2 [00:01:00] Hi, my name is Stephanie Simmons and I’m the founder and Chief Quantum officer of Photonic Inc., as well as the advisory council co-chair of the newly-announced national quantum strategy for Canada. Quantum is a coming technological tidal wave, and we already have specific concrete examples of how it’s going to change the way we communicate and compute. Ultimately, information. The bits we use are physical objects that are manipulated according to physical laws. The information possessed by quantum systems is simply exponentially larger in scale than the non quantum bits we use today. Once we harness fault tolerant quantum technologies, which is to say trustworthy quantum technologies, we will be able to do certain things that are otherwise physically impossible to accomplish by any other means. Speaker 1 [00:01:43] India, Israel, Japan, Australia. They all have quantum strategies. And here in Canada the Federal Government is trying to help up our quantum game. It recently announced a national quantum strategy with $360 million behind it. So what is this quantum thing? And cannot live up to the hype in time to address the world’s most pressing issues, whether it’s climate change or international conflict or cybersecurity? This is Disruptors and RBC podcast. I’m John Stackhouse. Today, I’m excited to speak with an innovator on the front lines of the quantum computing revolution. Kristen Weed Brook is the CEO of Toronto based Xanadu Quantum Technologies. Just last year, Xanadu became one of the first companies in the world to successfully demonstrate quantum computation advantage. We’re going to hear a lot more about that in a minute. Christian, welcome to Disruptors. Speaker 3 [00:02:50] Thank you, John. It’s nice to be here. Speaker 1 [00:02:52] Before we get into some of the heavy stuff on Quantum, I love to know a bit more about your own background and journey, Christian and also the origins of Xanadu. But maybe we can start with the name of the company. What inspired it? Speaker 3 [00:03:06] It actually comes from the song Xanadu by Olivia Newton-John and written by ELO. Actually one of the funny sort of side note. So that is the actual movie itself was a bit of a box office bomb. And we’ve raised probably ten times the amount of money that made at the box office. Speaker 1 [00:03:22] Well, it’s a great tribute to the late Olivia Newton-John, fellow Australian. Tell us how you came from Australia to Canada and how the company got going. Speaker 3 [00:03:32] Like a lot of people at Xanadu and other quantum companies, I came from academia. So from Australia I did undergrad and University of Queensland in Brisbane and I did a master’s in Nash and Young Australian National University in Canberra and then started to finish my PhD back at University of Queensland as well. There I was working on quantum computing and quantum security as it relates to photonics or light, which is what Xanadu, it’s, it’s medium that it’s stores and processes information. After that, I was a post-doc at MIT. He continued in the same sort of research and then found a job at University of Toronto. As soon as I landed. I just thought, This is a wonderful place to be and live and work and been here ever since and became a Canadian a couple of years ago as well. Speaker 1 [00:05:28] Before we get deeper into this, I want to pause you there and help a lot of our listeners catch up to you on Quantum. So I’ll ask the killer Jeopardy question. What is quantum? Speaker 3 [00:05:38] Basically, we have computers now. We have security solutions on the Internet and so forth. They actually run according to the principles of classical physics or Newtonian physics. Or another way of looking at it is non quantum physics. And these are things that we’re very used to in our real world. If we throw to our Frisbee, for instance, we throw away and it doesn’t do anything weird, you know, even if there’s wind or throw it off, but it doesn’t suddenly go the opposite direction, for instance. Now, if you’re able to zoom into any object and you see it’s made of atoms and protons and electrons and so forth, if you threw a Frisbee near an atom and you you’re part of the around the atom, it will have different laws of physics that operate. And these are called quantum physics. So quantum really means quantum physics or laws of physics at the atomic level. And so if you can actually harness these properties at the atomic level or if you’re looking at photons as we are, then you can actually generate some very weird things. And there’s certain properties that we don’t see in our classical world like entanglement and superposition interference and so forth that actually operate. So long story short, there’s different properties of physics that happen on the atomic level that we can actually leverage to do some really cool things. And in computation, if we can leverage these quantum properties, we can see for certain problems dramatic speed up in how long it takes to run a computation in security. We can actually create secure methods of transmitting information that are not possible using classical physics. So it’s a game changer, though. The catch here is that these physical properties of the quantum atomic level a very hard to leverage. And the reason is that our world interacts with this atomic world and you lose entangled. When you lose a ship for position and you lose interference and so forth. So they’re very hard to extract. And that’s why it’s very difficult to build a quantum computer. Is these properties or these weight effects that we want to leverage. They’re very ephemeral and they’re very hard to actually loft out. Speaker 1 [00:07:45] Let’s talk for a minute about your computer. It’s called Borealis, which is a and it’s a photonic quantum computer. Last year, it reached what’s called computational Advantage, which made it solved a complex mathematical operation in a fraction of a second. I believe it’s something that would take the world’s most powerful supercomputer more than 9000 years, which is almost unfathomable. Tell us a bit more about Borealis. Speaker 3 [00:08:11] Yeah, it was a remarkable achievement. As you mentioned, it was a demonstration of quantum computational advantage or quantum supremacy. Sometimes they’re used interchangeably and it shows a very well-defined task that you sort of hit a classical computer and not even just desktop computers, but supercomputers and pick them up against a quantum computer, as it’s called Borealis and press go and you see how fast each of them solves. And like you said, under a second for our Borealis machine. But it would have taken 9000 years or more for a classical computer. This demonstration was the first time ever by a start up and first time in Canada. So that’s why the team is very proud about it. It’s a great achievement for Canada. And also quantum computing companies in Canada took about two years to build the hardware, and the hardware team started essentially when COVID started. So there’s all that sort of difficulty on top of it, which is a testament to a very small team as well that managed to build this. The very first demonstration was by Google, who uses superconducting qubits and think of them as electrons. So a quantum version of electronics, whereas ours is quantum photonics. They did a wonderful job. It was the first time that was demonstrated for us. We were able to do it live based approach, first time that was available on the cloud as well. And so that’s the key thing. This decade perhaps will be characterized by having these very challenging computers to build accessible over the cloud. So, yeah, it was a crazy achievement, was published and verified and sort of peer reviewed in nature as well. So the community really is excited about the achievement by the Xanadu team. Speaker 1 [00:09:48] When I first got to see Borealis, you took me on a tour last year and there was great excitement at the time because you were very close to that computational advantage. One of the things that struck me was the size of the computer. I mean, much bigger than anything I have access to, but relatively small given the enormous power of it. What all goes into the housing of these extraordinary machines that may change everything around us? Speaker 3 [00:10:12] Yeah, actually, you mentioned our building, so we’re on the 29th floor. As you know, John, you know, we were concerned before we moved in is every building swings a little bit. And would that affect our measurements? Would it affect our apparatus? And because most of the time you see photonic computers or quantum optics, as we call them experiments, they’re often in the bottom of a of a university building in the basement because you need to keep everything all the light closed off and so forth. So we were unsure about building one of these devices, but in the end, thankfully, none of the issues that we were concerned about actually played a role, which is great. And I think that speaks to the robustness of our photonic devices and chips as well. And one of the key things, you know, I mentioned this device has 216 qubits when you can start solving important customer problems. So around a million cubits physical qubits now it could be plus or minus, but that’s a good way to sort of think about it, you know, what is a magnitude away. But the key thing is some of the breakthroughs in Borealis are actually needed, and one of them is you need some sort of buffer or transmitting light through fiber optics. And when you look at a traditional data center, a data center has, you know, a certain amount of square footage and you’d have all these server racks within it, you know, one after the other, and they’re all talking to each other using light as well. But they’re computing, using electronics. So the way to scale up and it’s very reminiscent of the things we achieved in Borealis is you’re going to have many of these modules very much, say, multiple versions of Borealis, roughly speaking, but they’ll all be talking to each other using light or photons. There are theses and why we believe perhaps we have one of the edges when it comes to scaling up is the ability to actually network our devices because they are already photonic based. So what better way to sort of scale up if you have to use photonics, meaning that’s how you connect them using the fiber optics, then already a computer that’s computing using light based approach. Speaker 1 [00:12:07] This is a really exciting global race. The Chinese are very advanced in quantum computing. Google has been making great strides. Where does Xanadu stand up in the in the global rankings? Speaker 3 [00:12:19] You know, it depends on how you define this. So if you if you look at quantum supremacy or quantum computational advantage, we do have the most powerful quantum computer. Again, there’s a lot of caveats there which we try to be clear about. And, you know, one of them is for a specific type of problem. No customer use cases yet, but we’re only one of three demonstrations of quantum supremacy. The first was by Google, second by a great team in China and also now a third time by SATs. Which is the first time it’s available on the cloud for anyone with internet connection. Susanna do is in terms of that aspect is one of the leaders in the world in terms of photonics, definitely one of the leaders as well. You know, the hope is with photonics is what we’re leveraging now is we didn’t have to invent the laser, we didn’t have to invent fiber optics. We can order them from companies. And, you know, as you mentioned, I originally came from Australia. And what better country to leverage the photonics than Canadians history in photonics, industry, Nortel and others as well. So we’re able to leverage that, which is a great thing. And, you know, speaking to your point about where Canada’s can succeed, it’s also in this area as well. So I would say on those points, we’re definitely hitting above our bodyweight and also one of the leaders as well. Speaker 1 [00:13:31] Christian. I appreciate applications may also be a few years away or longer, but I wonder if you can give our listeners a sense of where you see quantum making significant differences in the economy and in society over the next number of years. Where do you think the applications will first be most impactful? Speaker 3 [00:13:51] Yeah, that’s a good question. And I would say applications are still a few years off. We’re more confident that once us or anyone else can reach millions of us, that’s where you can start solving important customer problems. The big picture is in terms of the buckets. So the main industries, the common ones that you would hear about, where a quantum computer can really outperform and really change the world in would be pharmaceuticals. So there, for instance, would be drug discovery. Another one would be finance. Common examples. There would be portfolio optimization. We hear about that. Another big one, which is where Zander’s really playing, is in material design and specifically next generation battery development. And another one that you often hear about is logistics. So let’s take Amazon for instance. They want to find an optimal path so they can save a lot of money in fuel and drivers. Time to make sure that doing the shortest path for a delivery. So these are the Commonwealth. They’re all complex systems, meaning if you add extra, extra elements to it, it doesn’t scale very well. So now I think in most industries focus is key. So each of these buckets or verticals, it could take a lifetime, each of them. So we’ve just focused on material disease, SARS and, you know, quantum chemistry, but more specifically next generation battery development. In our last round, we actually got an investment seriously from Volkswagen, and we’re actually been working with Volkswagen on projects the last year or two and will continue to do so as well. And we try to be very optimistic and say, look, this is the potential, but be realistic as well. Find that middle ground. And for us, it’s a case of investigating. If you had a million qubits and more for quantum computer, where would Volkswagen and other car companies use them to create a new battery that would be ten times faster to charge ten times longer distance on a single charge, You know, safer. All the usual metrics that traditional companies are looking at in the batteries are doing that as well. If you ran like the Borealis for 9000 years, you know, Volkswagen, other companies are not going to want to run a machine for 9000 years. So maybe even a year is a good metric, you know, So there’s a lot of different ways that it could help. But I would say these are the common industries that people talk about. Speaker 1 [00:16:03] It seems, and this will be overly simplistic, but that a lot of quantum computing opportunities are addressing future unknowns versus current computational challenges, which tend to be focused on current no ones and unknowns. Who is going into the vagaries of the future? Speaker 3 [00:16:20] There’s two things that I think about when you thinking about the hopefulness of a technology. One is that, as I mentioned, we’ve been building computers but not exploiting the full laws of the universe of nature. So we’ve done enormous historically, companies have done phenomenal work since the fifties and beyond and computer chips and architectures and up until the Internet and PC and mobile phones today. But the laws they’ve been using in order to create these things are not the most general sort of laws. So why I’m encouraged is that imagine if we can now use the most general laws of physics that we know about quantum physics. Imagine if we can leverage everything of that, that space. The hope is, is that the ability of problems we can solve also is proportional to that. The other thing, if we look back at history, I always like reading about the mid seventies and late seventies and the PC revolution with the apple, Apple one and Apple two and so forth, you would see a lot of the early advertisements were really for hobbyists, for the personal computer though I remember some of the early ads in the mid seventies were about advertising to housewives, said you can use your computer to look at a menu. And that was really the selling point, you know, apart from hobbyists and just having fun on these things and programing for, you know, abstract things. And it wasn’t till maybe 79 or so that they started come up with business applications. The spreadsheets for businesses were documents. And then we went into the eighties and more things games and so forth came more popular as well as a suite of applications. But those things, you know, maybe a few people could have imagined. And definitely science fiction writers have thought about all the possibilities going back 100 years and so forth, what the future may look like. But the actual applications were very much unknown and it was still selling. But look where we are today. Imagine if we, you know, said we can’t think of any other applications. Speaker 1 [00:18:16] Let’s take a quick break. When we come back, Christian SEABROOK, the CEO of Xanadu. We’ll talk about where Canada falls in the race for quantum computing Edge and who we’re racing against. Speaker 2 [00:18:30] You’re listening to Disruptors and RBC podcast. I’m Theresa Do. I’d like to share with you our latest agriculture report from RBC Economics on Thought leadership, called the Transformative Seven Technologies that Can Drive Canada’s Next Green Revolution. In it, we identify seven key agtech innovations we believe can both meaningfully reduce emissions and present opportunities for Canada to lead. Some, like anaerobic digester, carbon capture and precision technology, are ready to scale now. Others, like vertical farms, plant science and cellular agriculture, will be key solutions for the future. In every case, maximizing their potential will mean building the right platforms for collaboration among not just farmers and entrepreneurs, but also investors, corporates and governments. To learn more, visit RBC E-commerce Transformative seven. Speaker 1 [00:19:30] Welcome back. Today, I’m speaking with Kristen Wheat, Brooke, the CEO of Xanadu, about Canada’s place and potential in the development of quantum computing. Christian, there used to be a bit of quantum hype maybe a couple of years ago that suggested that the first team to achieve quantum supremacy would have a singular victory that only one supreme quantum computer would prevail. Has your understanding of quantum supremacy evolved over the last few years? Speaker 3 [00:20:01] Yeah. Yes, and that’s a good point. I do believe it depends on who you’re talking to in terms of the hype. I would say us and Google and a few others have always known that quantum supremacy is just a stepping stone, an initial achievement that the very difficult achievement but needs to be ticked off and then, you know, continued on. What’s the error correction and fault tolerance? The reason I say that, and I think Google has mentioned this too, when their great experiment came out, is there were a lot of naysayers that said even a quantum supremacy demonstration is not possible, meaning put aside applications for customers. Even if you’ve chosen an esoteric math problem, you still would not be able to beat a is a quantum computer. So I think those things were important. But also in our case too, and maybe with others, a lot of the technical demonstrations for Borealis are actually needed for error correction fault tolerance anyway. So it’s a rite of passage that I think was an important one for us as well. I think most people would have looked at it as a as a, you know, selling the pass through rather the be all and end all achievement. Now, though, getting back to your thought of one winner, to rule them all, even if a few companies came out tomorrow with a million qubits, which is not really possible or likely, it’s still a few years away. But let’s say that A, there’s still enough market and problems to go around, that it would be really hard to actually one company, even if it’s a Google, I’d be able to dominate every single vertical. For us to be a specific example, we’ve chosen next generation battery development to exclusion of everyone else, and that particular industry has a different supply. Chains have it has a different customer base, it has different sales and marketing. For us, we have to hire people that have background in quantum chemistry and batteries. So long story short, I think there’s more than enough for many winners. And you know, another way to perhaps look at it, maybe Xanadu dominates in Canada or North America and there’s another company that dominates in Europe as well. So a lot of different possibilities. But we all need to get to a million qubits first. Speaker 1 [00:21:58] Well, let’s turn to that point about national strategies. As I mentioned earlier, the federal government has announced $360 million to create a national quantum strategy. Why does Canada need this? Speaker 3 [00:22:10] I would say the first thing that comes to mind is building a quantum computer from the hardware point of view particularly is extremely expensive. It’s going to take a lot of money. And that money specifically was really going through the universities. And also that is a problem of the of the funnel of talent coming through and training them. The universities in Canada have been training these quantum physicists in quantum computing and so forth for the last two decades or more. And so having that pipeline come through, the companies in Canada, like Xanadu and others can actually leverage is important. Some money needs to be put there. Think of previous industries like the, you know, chip market or telecommunication market. These are very big markets. It takes billions and billions of dollars already. The other thing, if you look at competition, whether it’s friendly or not, the US has put ten times that amount of money roughly. So, you know, billion or two into the same sort of strategies. And so if we want to be competitive, it’s key for us to be able to have enough money to attract the talent as well to stop them from going to other places. China, I believe, has put in maybe 3 to 5 billion as well, something in a couple of billion or more. And Europe has done a lot as well. We’ve seen them being actively engaged. And thankfully, as you as you know, John, a week ago, the prime minister and the minister, the champagne visited us, which is great, and that was to announce Swift’s US Strategic Innovation Fund to reimbursement program of up to $40 million. And this shows you the amount of money that actually needs to go in and also the amount of jobs that it will create. And also the quantum Canadian ecosystem in general will create as well. Speaker 1 [00:23:44] Yeah, I mean, $360 million is a lot of money. I believe Canada is spending roughly on par with Israel and Russia, which are serious players in this. But India, I think, has committed $1,000,000,000 to to quantum the EU. Now, these are announcements, but it’s 7 billion and China again an announcement, 15 billion. Speaker 3 [00:24:03] Yeah. And then maybe another point, John, is Canada, Singapore and Australia. For the last two, two and a half decades, their governments have put in so much money in terms of the academic and university side where most of us have come from. And so it would be a shame for these countries and obviously Canada to not really be able to leverage as much as the talent pool and Xanadu has. I think 52% of the employees are from overseas and they want to. So far. Stay here. Speaker 1 [00:24:31] Is there a unique advantage that Canada has in that in that global competition? Speaker 3 [00:24:35] I think so. I mean, if you look at University of Toronto, you look at Institute of Quantum Computing in University World and other places in Vancouver and Montreal and so forth. We have the talent base here and that is really key. Some of the benefits for companies like the Shred program, we’ve been leveraging that from day one, which is grades two rebate on the through taxation, and it’s just helped start ups. It’s helped us to create 170 jobs now. The other big one is from our photonics based approach too. There are a lot of photonic engineers from Nortel and the history of telco companies in Canada. They’ve had a great history there and we’re hoping we can also leverage that as well. You know, if anyone’s listening that knows anyone that has a background, we are looking always for people that have the I would say not a quantum side, but they may have a, you know, optical engineering or electrical engineering. Speaker 1 [00:25:23] I love that spirit. Entrepreneurs are always recruiting. You give a very hopeful picture for Quantum. Some prefer to cast it as a kind of a black and white narrative, and that if darker forces achieve true quantum supremacy or get to that million qubits before others, they could do incredibly malicious things with technology. Do we need to be fearful of where Quantum could go as well as hopeful? Speaker 3 [00:25:49] Yeah, I believe most technologies have, as you mentioned, a darker last side. Most have that dual aspect of it. I would say it’s important to recognize that that’s the first step. So for instance, Internet security. Yeah, that’s still still far away. That’s probably the very least by the end of this decade. There’s certainly companies out there, if they’re not quantum in terms of their technology, but they’re the traditional codes that can shore up the Internet security again, you know, replace our existing codes. So there’s companies already working on one of the most drastic, nefarious aspects of quantum computing, which is Internet security. So those things are well underway and missed in the US is already working up a group of standards that people can sort of say, okay, well I can choose one of these, you know, two or three or four standards, implement them in my security device and so forth. So I think we’re in a good position at the moment because people are aware about these things that and are already working on solutions. Speaker 1 [00:26:43] Let’s end with a question of hope. When you hit that million qubit mark, what will be your greatest hope for where it goes from there? Speaker 3 [00:26:51] This sounds maybe a trial in some sense because it’s kind of obvious, but I hope if we hit a million, we’ve got over a thousand people we’ve given jobs to. You know, it’s kind of implied in all these things. But it’s amazing that we’ve already given 170 people jobs that can, you know, feed the family and provide shelter and all the basic necessities. Beyond that, it would be great if Canada can actually have a dominant company again in sort of hard tech. So we did have BlackBerry. There’s Nortel. We would like to have something of that scale one day with a different ending or maybe an ending that prolonged many, many decades. We have a goal of building a 50 year company. So that will be great. Whether of your work in Canada or where we’re helping our customers is providing useful this, you know, what are we actually doing for the world that someone is willing to hand over a dollar and receive a product or service from that. So very simple goals, but these things actually have a way of leading to the biggest accomplishments. Speaker 1 [00:27:51] Those would be great. Pardon the expression quantum leaps. Speaker 3 [00:27:53] Exactly. Speaker 1 [00:27:54] Christian, thank you so much for being a part of disruptors. Speaker 3 [00:27:57] Thank you, John. Appreciate your time. Thank you. Speaker 1 [00:28:01] That was Christian Weedbrook, CEO of Xanadu. You know, it’s fascinating to hear about a technology with such massive potential. And I think I know a fair bit more about quantum than before we started this episode, but I sure wouldn’t pick it if I ever got on Jeopardy. What I do know is Canada is globally competitive in this frontier of technology, and if we get it right, we can help disrupt positively all sorts of sectors and solve all sorts of challenges out there, whether it’s developing precision medicine or being on the right side of cybersecurity. The quantum race is just getting going and it’s going to be incredible to see where innovators like Christian and Xanadu take us in the years ahead. I’m John Stackhouse and this is Disruptors, an RBC podcast. Talk to you soon. Speaker 2 [00:28:55] Disruptors, an RBC podcast is created by the RBC Thought Leadership Group and does not constitute a recommendation for any organization, product or service. It’s produced and recorded by Jar Audio. For more disruptors content, like or subscribe wherever you get your podcasts and visit RBC dot com, slash Disruptors.

Why we wrote this

<class=”dark-blue”>Canada needs to lead the world in net zero agriculture, and our organizations want to play a constructive role in that journey. To do that, we’ve embarked on a long-term research project, rooted in our foundational report, The Next Green Revolution. We are following that up with a series of smaller reports, to explore the opportunities in policy, human capital, financial capital and technology. None of these are a panacea, but in aggregate, the themes and research can help get us closer to our shared goal of a more sustainable food system.
This report, focussed on ag-tech, shows the opportunities that a range of technologies present to Canada―and also the need for our country to be strategic in our approach. Our team analyzed investment data, sector pathways, and the impact of public policy, both in Canada and other countries. We also worked with the Creative Destruction Lab’s ag-tech program, based in Calgary, to gain insights into the experience of entrepreneurs. Canada has a history of producing groundbreaking research and development, a lively ecosystem of startups, and a deep talent pool that includes tech-savvy farmers, world-class scientists and creative agri-entrepreneurs. We also understand the imperative to advance a just transition through technology rather than pursuing technologies for their own sake. Innovation will be key to the low carbon, sustainable food systems of the future. This is Canada’s moment to unlock it. John Stackhouse,
    • Senior Vice President, RBC Economics and Thought Leadership
Keith Halliday,
    • Senior Director, BCG Centre for Canada’s Future
Evan Fraser,
    Senior Director, Arrell Food Institute at the University of Guelph

For more, go to rbc.com/climate.

Download the Report

Download

Key findings

A new generation of agricultural technologies could help cut potential 2050 emissions from Canada’s agriculture sector by up to 40%.
Seven specific technologies hold exceptional power to kickstart the country’s transformation to a low carbon agricultural producer: precision technologies; carbon capture, utilization, and storage systems; anaerobic digesters; controlled environment farming; livestock feed additives; agriculture biotechnology; and cellular agriculture.
But Canada’s share of global investment in these technologies is insufficient. And most agricultural R&D funding continues to be drawn overwhelmingly from the public sector.
Producers, particularly those with small and medium-sized businesses, also face a number of key challenges in adopting these technologies (including cost and infrastructure). Entrepreneurs, too, will need support in scaling their innovations.
By leaning on its existing strengths, Canada can become a leader in developing emerging ag-techs that will define the future of global food systems.

Canada can lead in a new world of agricultural technology

Imagine a bumper crop of wheat grown entirely without chemical fertilizers and using practices that regenerate the soil. Or a swarm of drones that use artificial intelligence to identify every plant in a field, sniping only the weeds with a precision spray. Or a fresh slice of salmon sashimi that was grown in a bioreactor, not caught from the sea. These are among the game-changing technologies enabling the Next Green Revolution in agriculture. Like innovations that came before them, they’re accelerating productivity to help feed a growing global population. But they’re also playing a critical new role: reducing agricultural emissions and enabling soil to absorb greenhouse gas emissions. While agriculture produces 10% of our national GHGs annually, its core raw materials—soil, plants, and animals—also hold almost unequalled power to pull emissions out of the atmosphere, where they contribute to climate change. Unlocking that power, and cutting existing emissions, will depend on many things: including supportive policy, a well-trained workforce, and financing. Critically, this transformation will also hinge on technology—and our success in both developing it through responsible innovation and putting it to work to help the economy, the environment and individual farm operators. In previous research, we found that technological solutions could play a major role in cutting up to 40% of potential 2050 emissions from Canada’s agricultural sector.1 As a top exporter of key crops, with broad market access and a deep history of agricultural innovation, Canada is extremely well-positioned to not just lead the world in the adoption of these ag-techs but in the development of them. By engaging diverse actors in the Canadian food system, we can develop technologies that are responsible, creative, and efficient. Indeed, given our advantages, this opportunity is ours to lose. We’ve identified seven key innovations or “ag-techs” we believe can both meaningfully reduce emissions and present opportunities for Canada to lead. Some, like anaerobic digesters, carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) and precision technology are ready and starting to scale now. Others, like vertical farms and plant science will be key solutions in the medium term. Still others, like cellular agriculture and precision fermentation, could transform the food systems of the future. In every case, maximizing the potential of these innovations means building the right platforms for collaboration among not just farmers and entrepreneurs, but communities, investors, corporations, social enterprises, and governments. It’ll mean proving to farmers of all types that sizeable upfront investments in more proven ag-techs are worth it while de-risking their leaps of faith into emerging technologies. We need to also be careful that these tools, many of which are capital intensive, do not hurt smaller and medium-sized enterprises and producers and that they are truly deployed to help Canada achieve both our emission targets and drive a green economic transition. Doing this will mean accelerating investment in research and development—particularly among private actors—and directing more of it toward the technologies that can do the most to cut emissions now. As it stands, most ag-tech investments in Canada are focused on productivity enhancing digitization and automation, which help increase yields and improve farm operations. We need more investment in innovation to advance sustainable and regenerative farming. Canada’s share of global funding for most key technologies is low

Global venture capital and private equity investment in ag-tech since 2017

Ready to scale: These technologies are already playing a role in our effort to reduce emissions in agriculture. They are developed and commercially available, but require the right incentives, financing, and policy support to be adopted and scaled. On track: These technologies are still considered nascent, though they are commercially available. They have strong potential to help Canada adapt to the effects of climate change and/or reduce emissions, but still require further development and growth. Least ready: These technologies are mostly in the R&D stage and generally not yet commercially available (at least in Canada). They have immense potential to transform the sector and build on existing Canadian strengths and resources.

Mobilizing private investment is key to competing on the global stage

Canadian agricultural innovations can be found on fields around the world, from canola seeds invented by Prairie scientists to grain augers first imagined in Manitoba. Yet as we move into a new era of low emissions agriculture, much of our potential to build on this strength—using newfound advantages unlocked by artificial intelligence and data science—remains untapped. Agriculture has outpaced other Canadian sectors in investment over the last number of years—a positive sign suggesting both productivity and rising domestic demand for machinery and equipment with more technology embedded in it. But leading the world in this space demands more investment, particularly from the private sector. For generations, Canadian agricultural research and development has been overwhelmingly fuelled by public dollars. Over the last decade, the public sector accounted for as much as 90% of agricultural R&D, compared to about 30% in the United States.2 Meantime, Canadian agricultural startups and private companies have lagged international peers in drawing private investment. Of roughly US$36 billion in global venture capital and private equity investments in ag-tech since 2017, Canada received just 3%, or US$1 billion. The U.S. captured US$20 billion or 55%. Canadian agriculture businesses have grown their R&D budgets significantly—at least doubling them from 2015 levels in recent years. But they still fall far short of Canadian public R&D funding, which steadily declined as a percent of GDP since the 1980s. As governments in peer countries like the U.S. and Europe accelerate public spending on sustainable agriculture (for example via the Inflation Reduction Act, and the European Green Deal), Canada risks falling even further behind. It is imperative for Canada to keep pace on incentives to avoid placing our producers and companies at a disadvantage or causing a brain drain to other nations. To compete, we’ll need governments to shift more support to on-farm implementation and uptake of ag-tech regenerative agriculture practices. And we’ll need businesses to drive more investment—particularly in the technologies that hold the most promise to move the needle on climate change. Agrifood investment has outpaced other industries in Canada

The global race to create the next generation of ag-tech is heating up

...
...
...
...

Israel

Israel, a small country with little arable land, is already the global leader in digital fertigation. This technique employs sensors and cloud-based analytics to determine the targeted release of water and fertilizer directly onto a plant’s roots. More recently, the country has expanded its agricultural focus to develop capabilities in vertical farming and alternative proteins. Israeli companies are leading the world in investment in plant-based proteins, drawing US$160 million as of the first half of 2022—22% of all funds globally. Investment in novel protein more broadly is the second largest globally, including for cultured meats (US$320 million as of the first half of 2022).3 The industry grew 160% in the first half of 2022 with more than 100 Israeli companies specializing in novel proteins (and more than 11 of these created between 2021 and 2022 alone). Israel devotes 17% of agricultural spending to research and development.

Singapore

Less than 1% of Singapore’s land is arable, but that hasn’t stopped it from setting ambitious agriculture targets. The country’s “30 by 30” goal aims to reduce its dependence on food imports by increasing domestic food production to 30% of demand by 2030. As part of this, the government is providing funding to help farmers upgrade equipment and test new technology on their farms, while also supporting innovation and ag-tech development. Singapore has clear strengths in urban and controlled environment farming (e.g., vertical farms, contained fish farms, and indoor farm factories that use AI and big data to maximize efficiency), and has more recently emerged as a hub for the development and regulation of alternative proteins.4 In 2019, Singapore announced a regulatory framework for the pre-market assessment of novel foods and is working with public and private sector organizations to support growth of cellular agriculture startups. It was the first country to approve cell-cultured meat for human consumption in December 2020 and is home to more than 20 cell-based meat producers.

Japan

Crisis drives innovation. After the 2011 tsunami and Fukushima nuclear disaster destroyed most nearby farmland, the Japanese government jumpstarted a vertical farm building boom to replace lost production. Today, Japan has more than 300 vertical farms—powered by robotic automation and smart technology—to help maintain its domestic supply of food, which is also increasingly challenged by the country’s aging population and migration to cities (causing abandonment of farmland).5 The government’s 2020 Environment Innovation Strategy aims to develop climate-smart technologies, including through new breeding varieties that reduce CH4 and N2O emissions from agriculture and livestock.

The Netherlands

Despite its smaller size, the Netherlands is the world’s second largest food exporter in dollar value behind the U.S. An agri-food powerhouse, the country excels at digitizing its greenhouses and fields with smart technologies. Dutch greenhouses, which account for 80% of cultivated land in the Netherlands, are among the most advanced in the world. More recently, the Netherlands has emerged as a frontrunner in plant-based food products, driven largely by innovations from Wageningen University and Research Centre. The university is the leading research hub for the Dutch food industry and often referred to as “Food Valley” or the “Silicon Valley of Food.” Home to a US$94 million plant-based food innovation centre, Wageningen University works with startups and researchers to develop new vegan products. Nearly 200 agri-food companies are present within a 10-km radius of the university, creating a dense network of collaboration between the public and private sectors. There are more than 60 companies and research institutions focused on plant-based protein in the country.6

The Transformative Seven

Building a low carbon agriculture sector will be a challenge unlike any we’ve faced. The good news is we have powerful technology to help us do it. We’ve identified seven innovations that, if applied in a way that is equitable and supported by producers and communities, hold the most promise to cut emissions and store or sequester them in soil. Much remains open to debate. No matter how powerful the potential of a technology is, it is never a panacea, and needs to be adopted by producers, accepted by consumers, and supported by policy. Too often in the past promising technological innovations have also hurt communities. Considering these tensions, our goal here is to lay out the potential of these innovations to cut emissions in Canada and use this analysis as a lead up to successive phases of this collaborative project, where we will road test ideas with a range of groups and communities across Canada. Boosting investment in the technologies we’ve identified will be key to realizing their potential. Together, RBC, BCG Centre for Growth and Innovation Analytics and Arrell Food Institute gathered the best available data on current investment levels. Still, much of this data remains insufficient or undisclosed. Establishing better transparency in this arena will be critical to tracking our progress going forward.

The Problem When applied to fields, nitrogen fertilizer is a key cause of emissions. Additionally, tilling or ploughing the soil churns up carbon stored within it, releasing it into the atmosphere where it contributes to climate change. The Solution Precision technologies like smart tractors gather data on farm productivity and fertilizer use to empower better, more granular decisions about where to use inputs and in what quantities. Other tools like air seeders and soil sensors can enable farmers to seed and fertilize land with precision, and enable regenerative agriculture practices like reduced tillage that protect soil quality and biodiversity. Currently 13MT of carbon is stored in Canadian soil. Our research suggests that by embracing this technology as well as regenerative agriculture practices, an additional 21MT of carbon can be stored in soil by 2050. Canadian farmers have made strides in adopting some precision technologies. In Saskatchewan, for instance, adoption of precision tech has helped 80% of farmers use no-till or conservation tillage. And auto-steering for tractors has been a mainstay on farms for decades. But greater adoption of next generation tools that incorporate advanced technology like artificial intelligence and automated robotics—powered by data—could take precision farming to another level. The Challenges Canada lags the global average in investment in precision agricultural technology and there are a number of barriers to adoption among producers. To catch up, it must convince farmers that these next generation tools will work on their farms. Private and public sectors can help demonstrate the benefits by establishing sponsored field trials, by setting up carbon markets and by providing the data points and evidence necessary to prove the technology’s value to farmers. Protecting that farm data will also be key. Given the variance of soil quality and make-up across the country, farmers are more likely to trust demonstrations when they are close to their own operations.

Canadian spotlightPrecision AI produces artificial intelligence-powered drones with onboard computer vision that allow granular decisions to be made on the farm. Its drones can identify every plant species it sees on the field, and can target weeds with precision spraying, thereby reducing the use of chemicals by up to 95%. Founded in Regina, Saskatchewan in 2017, the company has grown to over 40 full time employees globally and raised $20 million in seed funding in 2021.

The Problem The production of nitrogen fertilizer—key to the boom in yields in recent decades—involves the combustion of natural gas and its conversion into hydrogen. Both processes create large amounts of carbon dioxide that are emitted into the atmosphere where they contribute to climate change. Our estimates suggest fertilizer production emits 12 MT of emissions annually. Without change, emissions will rise to 35MT by 2050. The Solution Carbon capture, utilization, and storage systems (CCUS) trap carbon dioxide emissions before they enter the atmosphere, reuse them or compress them into liquid that is then shipped via pipeline to a storage facility. CCUS has the potential to capture and store 7MT of emissions by 2050. Since 2019, Saskatoon-based Nutrien has been using CCUS to capture carbon dioxide from its Redwater plant. This liquid CO2 is then moved via the Alberta Carbon Trunk Line to oil recovery projects in central Alberta. Nutrien sent approximately 139,000 tonnes of CO2 via this route in 2021.7 But beyond this, CCUS is not widely applied in the Canadian fertilizer industry. And globally, just six fertilizer facilities use this technology.8 The Challenges To enable widespread adoption of CCUS in fertilizer production, more infrastructure is key. This includes carbon sequestration hubs and extensions of existing trunk lines to reduce the financial barriers faced by production facilities. To provide this, we’ll need better coordination across a range of governments, regulators, and industry. Access to geological space for storing carbon, permitting for major projects, legal liability, and other complex technical aspects of these projects need a cohesive regulatory framework if we’re to increase deployment of capital in carbon capture.

Canadian spotlight Headquartered in Vancouver, B.C., Svante’s technology allows CO2 to be purified and concentrated within 60 seconds. This approach focuses on separating CO2 from nitrogen. Dilute flue gas (generated in industries like steel and oil and gas) is diverted to a continuously rotating platform where the CO2 is trapped within proprietary filters made from nano materials with a high capacity for CO2 capture. It is then purified and ready for storage. The company’s first industrial pilot test plant in Saskatchewan, in partnership with Husky Energy (now Cenovus Energy), is able to capture 10,000+ tonnes of CO2 per year. With lower capital costs than other existing solutions, this technology makes large-scale commercial carbon capture possible.

The Problem The food that goes into livestock must also come out, which creates methane emissions of about 8 MT per year in Canada, according to our research. Without change, these emissions from manure will rise to 10MT by 2050. The Solution Anaerobic digesters turn methane captured from manure (from cows as well as pigs, chickens, and other ruminant animals) and off-farm organic waste like crop residue, food waste and silage into renewable natural gas, biogas and electricity. Digestate, a byproduct, can also be used as an organic fertilizer on fields or as dairy bedding. Anaerobic digesters have the potential to cut emissions by 2MT by 2050. Canada has 279 biogas projects that are transforming methane into 196 MW of clean electricity and 6 million GJ of Renewable Natural Gas (RNG)— the equivalent of more than nine large hydro dams. And with just 45 operational digesters in the Canadian agriculture sector as of 2020, the most significant potential for the technology’s growth is on the farm.9 On-farm anaerobic digesters also add another revenue stream for farmers willing and able to undertake a project on their land. In Canada, biogas development (including anaerobic digesters) has been driven by provincial energy and waste management policies. There is huge opportunity for growth, especially in agriculture, where crop residues and animal manure make up two-thirds of Canada’s easily available biogas resources. In addition to on-farm plants, community digesters have been touted as a pathway to growth, where their use and costs can be split among multiple farms and potentially even local municipalities. The Challenges But investment and development thus far is anemic, with just 29 projects underway. (Data on investments in anaerobic digester development is also quite sparse). The high costs for building these facilities (in the tens of millions per facility, depending on the size) are a barrier. While there are significant tailwinds for the industry, including from government policies like the clean fuel regulations and offset markets, greater demand for biofuels and derisking structures like power purchase agreements will also need to be developed.

Canadian spotlight DLS Biogas builds biogas plants complete with remote monitoring capabilities. Biogas plants take organic waste (including manure), capture the methane, and transform it into renewable natural gas, electricity, and digestate. As part of its service offering, DLS Biogas provides feasibility and financial analysis, planning and construction management, and full-service operational support for farmers. The Ontario-based company is part of the Dairy Lane Systems family of companies, which has provided milking equipment and other services to dairy farmers for more than 30 years.

The Problem Conventional field farming produces emissions through fertilizer application. Emissions are also created when land is converted to farming, and when food is transported from the field to the grocery store. Controlled environment farming has the potential to help change the pattern of land use change, which if left unaltered, will rise from 4MT to 24MT by 2050. The Solution Greenhouses and vertical farms are the best known examples of controlled environment farming, which describes the production of food in an indoor environment. Vertical farms grow food indoors in stacked layers. Vertical farming uses only 10% of the land and requires up to 90% less water than conventional farming.10 It can also create a stable, local supply of fruits and vegetables, cutting the need for emissions-intensive transportation, and improving domestic food security. When powered and heated with fossil fuels like propane—as many are now—greenhouses can actually add to our emissions footprint. But in the longer run, if these operations use low carbon or renewable energy, they could be a source of low emissions food. Controlled environment agriculture also allows more food to be produced on less land. When matched with the right policies to create incentives to protect land, this creates new opportunities to create wildlife habitat and capture carbon in soil. But while this tech is viable for microgreens and other vegetables and fruits, it is not currently a feasible option for other major crops such as berries. Our estimates suggest we can avoid 20MT of emissions by preventing land use change between now and 2050. According to the latest Census of Agriculture, Canada has roughly 5,000 greenhouses and nurseries. Big investments are also being made to develop vertical farming, including a few government programs and a $65M investment by McCain Foods. The Challenges Costs remain a hurdle. In addition to capital costs such as land and the buildings themselves, electricity expenses for LED lighting, which take the place of natural sunshine in the growing cycle, tend to be the biggest budget item for vertical farms. Vertical farms can’t quite compete with conventional field farming yet and operators have struggled with zoning laws that don’t recognize indoor farming as agriculture.

Canadian spotlight Founded in 2011, GoodLeaf Farms was inspired by indoor hydroponic farming in Japan. Its pilot farm was constructed near Truro, Nova Scotia in 2015 and the company launched its first full-scale commercial farm in Guelph, Ontario in 2019. GoodLeaf grows microgreens and baby greens year-round using a hydroponic system, including LED lights and controlled heat and humidity. Its products, including micro arugula, lettuce, baby spinach, and more, are sold in Ontario.

The Problem Each year, a single cow will belch about 220 pounds of methane.11 The methane from cattle is shorter lived than carbon dioxide but 28 times more potent in terms of warming the planet. In Canada, enteric fermentation (the digestive process in livestock) contributes approximately 24 MT of GHGs. The Solution Scientists have discovered how to reduce cattle emissions through the gut microbiome. Feed additives like 3-NOP (3-nitrooxypropanol), algae and seaweed supplements suppress the enzyme that triggers the production of methane. They can also help cows digest food more efficiently. Additives and supplements have the potential to cut emissions by 16MT by 2050. 3-NOP has been shown to cut emissions by as much as 45% while adding seaweed to the diet of dairy cows could cut emissions by as much as 82%. Scientists are also working to ensure that this can be done without yield losses—potentially even improving the efficiency of cattle (that is, helping them grow more using less feed). 12 The Challenges The biggest challenge to scaling feed additives is regulatory approval. 3-NOP has been approved in Brazil and in the European Union, where it was categorized under feed additives that offer an environmental benefit (streamlining the path to commercialization). But in Canada, where it’s classified as a veterinary drug, it’s unlikely to be approved for several years. Cost is also a key barrier. Without a price on greenhouse gases (such as a carbon tax), farmers lack the incentive to adopt methane-reducing additives because there is not yet a clear economic benefit—only an environmental one. While a carbon credit scheme could help, there is still a heavy burden placed on the farmer to gather data to gain the credit.

Canadian spotlight Established in 2007 in PEI, North Atlantic Organics (NAO) produces mineral supplements for animals and plants using organic sea plants (seaweeds). Inspiration for the business came to co-founder Joe Dorgan when he tried to convert his dairy herd to organic but was unable to find a natural source for mineral supplements. A breakthrough arrived in 2014, when Rob Kinley, an agricultural scientist working with the company, found that its seaweed cattle mix was able reduce methane emissions from cow’s digestion by 20%.13 The company is currently in the process of developing mineral supplements for plants and hopes to scale up production.

The Problem Climate change is resulting in extreme weather events that can decimate crops. The overuse of fertilizer, as detailed above, generates nitrous oxide emissions. The Solution Agricultural biotechnology uses selective breeding, genetic engineering, gene editing, and tissue culture to accelerate and complement traditional approaches to produce crops and livestock with desirable traits, such as enhanced disease or drought tolerance (among other things). Its origins are in plant and animal breeding, which have been used for thousands of years to help produce new varieties of crops and increase yields. Canola, invented in Saskatchewan in the 1960s, is one example. In addition to breeding, genomic approaches that seek to enhance microbiomes, such as in the soil or the guts of animals, can enable carbon sequestration or prevent disease. The use of ag biotech approaches for carbon emissions reduction is relatively new and in the R&D phase. Ag biotech can create crops that improve uptake of nitrogen and other nutrients in soil (thereby reducing the use of fertilizer). It can also create plants with greater resiliency to disease and extreme weather events (like flooding and drought), and optimize soil microbes to improve soil fertility and boost plant growth. Some of the most exciting agricultural research is now taking place below the soil, as scientists study the power of microbiomes and root structures to counter climate change. Some are examining the potential to control photosynthesis to accelerate carbon sequestration. Others are developing microbiomes inoculated from disease. Biofertilizers are also being developed to secure the atmospheric nitrogen needed for plants to thrive. The Challenges Among the biggest barriers to investment in Canada are regulations of plants with novel traits, which are more stringent than those of competitors. A survey of plant breeders conducted by CropLife Canada found that a quarter of plant breeding research was halted after projects were determined to be “novel” and thus, subject to PNT risk assessments and approvals that could cost up to millions of dollars before a product could be commercialized. Seventy-seven percent of respondents indicated that the PNT regulatory framework needed to be updated to reflect current levels of knowledge. Another 27% indicated they conducted field trials outside of Canada to avoid requirements pertaining to PNT varieties.

Canadian spotlight Okanagan Specialty Fruits, based in Summerland, B.C., grows novel tree fruit varieties developed through bioengineering. Its flagship product is the Arctic apple, which doesn’t turn brown when bitten, sliced, or bruised (but does turn brown when it begins to rot). The company holds global intellectual property rights in compositions and methods for regulating expression of polyphenol oxidase (PPO) genes to control enzymatic browning in tree fruits.

The Problem Livestock produce emissions through enteric fermentation and manure, as detailed above. The pattern of land use change also generates emissions. The Solution Cellular agriculture is a discipline that can transform yeast, bacteria, cell samples and fungi into novel forms of proteins that can serve as alternatives for dairy or lab-grown meat and fish. It has the potential to produce alternatives to livestock and dairy products that require less land and inputs. The lab-grown process is considered more sustainable since it uses less water and land to produce food and emits fewer greenhouse gases than a field of cows or barn full of chickens. And Canada has a plentiful supply of feedstock, particularly carbohydrates, starches, and sugars, which could be used for cell-based agriculture products.14 (We currently dispose of leftover starches from peas after its proteins are used to make plant-based meats. This could instead be fed to specially bred micro-organisms such as yeast, which could then be used to make the proteins normally found in dairy products). The Challenges High upfront costs make starting a cellular agriculture company difficult. Investor education has also been a barrier. Aside from a few specialized investment firms, entrepreneurs say most investors don’t sufficiently understand the nuances of food science to gauge the potential of the vertical. Funding amounts tend to be low, with shorter terms. Entrepreneurs say more patient capital is needed to grow their companies.

Canadian spotlight Cell Ag Tech is an Ontario-based cellular agriculture startup developing cell-cultured seafood, with a current focus on lean white fish. Cell Ag Tech was recently announced as a winner in Canada’s regional cellular agriculture competition, AcCELLerate-ON, for its work on scaling fish muscle stem cells in 2D and 3D. Earlier this year, Cell Ag Tech also entered into an agreement to collaborate with the Centre for Commercialization of Regenerative Medicine to develop a process for growing fish cells in bioreactors.

Recommendations: Canada’s time to lead

The Next Green Revolution depends on both putting ready technologies to work and responsibly developing the game-changing innovations that will define the future. Though other nations are rapidly mobilizing their own resources to accomplish these goals, few are as well-positioned as Canada to lead. The following actions will be key to catalyzing the investment needed to scale the Transformative Seven, as well as remove key barriers to their adoption. In the next phases of our report series, we’ll gain a better understanding of how technology (buttressed by policy) can be applied to support producers (especially small- and medium-sized farms), foster acceptance by consumers and be inclusive of all stakeholders.

Create a central funding body for research and development. Many of the most promising and advanced areas of Canadian agricultural research don’t fit within current funding categories. A more centralized system, operating in close partnership with academia and the private sector, such as in the United States Department of Agriculture, could develop a more holistic, nationwide view of where support and innovation is needed. The leadership shown by federal governments in creating the innovation super clusters provides a playbook for how Canada can super charge agri-food research and innovation.
Enable commercialization of existing research. This will require increased funding for university tech transfer offices and programs. To unlock Canada’s innate strengths in research and development, we need to make it easier for researchers to take their work to commercial market. This includes streamlining crop science regulations that currently require extensive (and expensive) trials, and have discouraged some from pursuing development in Canada.
Marry agriculture and technology programs in post-secondary schools. Future food systems need more people with talents in data science, coding, and artificial intelligence—many of whom are currently drawn to the software industry. Efforts to draw more of this talent should begin early. Re-branding agriculture as a “cool” career may require local governments and business improvement associations to re-brand rural communities as desirable places to live—especially for immigrant populations with STEM skills. Collaboration with social scientists can ensure innovations are contextualized to the needs of farmers, accepted by consumers, and developed responsibly.
Create a Canadian Ag-Tech Silicon Valley. This hub for breakthrough ag-tech innovation should enable cross-silo collaboration among entrepreneurs, investors, researchers, communities, corporations and governments and carry the goal of incubating ideas and supporting the growth of start-ups and scale-ups. The hub should align public and private sector players around a common innovation ambition, focused on select priorities (such as the Transformative Seven technologies outlined above). An example of this is Rabobank’s Foodbytes! initiative. It includes a startup program that provides food and ag-tech startups with mentorship, commercial partnership, and investment opportunities.
Create innovative tax and financial incentives to spur more private investment. Accelerating private investment in Canadian ag-tech will mean thinking more creatively about the tax and financial incentives we have in place. We need to encourage the automation that will be key to our agricultural productivity and international competitiveness—and that will draw more capital to the technologies that will drive the future of low emissions farming. Expanding accelerated depreciation beyond tangible assets to include artificial intelligence and other ag-techs is one possibility.
Develop a comprehensive and transparent view of ag-tech investments that is easily accessible. This should include all of the innovation lifecycle. Data on private (venture capital and private equity) investment in startup companies is generally available except where funding rounds are not disclosed, but thorough data on business investment in agriculture R&D is difficult, if not impossible, to come by. The same can be said of ag-specific higher education R&D. Filling in these data gaps would give us a view of the technology landscape and help us understand where we need greater investment.
Build communities of early adopters among farmers. Farmers listen to other farmers. Much of the adoption of regenerative agriculture practices has stemmed from farmers seeing the successes of others—particularly those working with similar growing conditions. This helps ease farmers’ uncertainty about the effectiveness of technologies without risking their own operations. Independent demonstration areas are also powerful tools to prove the effectiveness of emerging innovations. Much of this knowledge transfer used to be performed by publicly-funded and independent agriculture extension programs. More recently, private sector companies have invested heavily in applied research programs to help farmers get best possible results from their products.
Make it pay. Forcing farmers to pay for emissions they already produce could add pressure to high food prices. A better approach is to compensate farmers for reducing them. Yet existing models like carbon credits are insufficient and place an unequal burden on the farmer. A national standard for measuring the impact of emissions-cutting activities, including a mechanism for measuring, reporting and verifying (MRV) carbon stored in soils, could be critical to compensating farmers and to empowering policymakers and financial institutions to mobilize support. This standard—also key to attracting investment—will need to be designed and regulated on a national basis and aligned internationally with our major trading partners.
Share the risk. For farmers, adoption of emissions-cutting technology adds more uncertainty to a business already weighted with risk. Governments and other companies in the agricultural value chain have an important role to play in sharing the risk burden. That’ll mean insuring against yield losses for farmers who adopt sustainable practices. For example, right now there is no incentive for sustainable agriculture under crop insurance schemes though these practices are proven to reduce the impact of flooding and drought. Crop insurers should be willing to adjust premiums to reflect these shifting risks.

For more, go to rbc.com/climate.

Download the Report

Download

Contributors:

RBC Trinh Theresa Do, Senior Manager, Thought Leadership Strategy Naomi Powell, Managing Editor, Economics and Thought Leadership John Stackhouse, Senior Vice President Colin Guldimann, Economist Benjamin Richardson, Research Associate Farah Huq, Senior Director, Content Strategy Darren Chow, Senior Manager, Digital Media Zeba Khan, Manager, Digital Publishing Aidan Smith-Edgell, Research Associate Kitty Wu, Intern Gwen Paddock, Director, Sustainability & Climate – Agriculture Brenda Bouw, Freelance Writer

Boston Consulting Group Keith Halliday, Director, Centre for Canada’s Future Chris Fletcher, Managing Director and Partner Sonya Hoo, Managing Director and Partner Wendi Backler, Partner and Director, BCG Centre for Growth and Innovation Analytics Youssef Aroub, Project Leader Pilar Pedrinelli, Consultant Rachit Sharma, Lead Knowledge Analyst, BCG Centre for Growth and Innovation Analytics

Arrell Food Institute, University of Guelph Evan Fraser, Director Deus Mugabe, Ph.D. Candidate, Plant Agriculture Dr. Jesus Pulido-Castanon, Post-doctoral Research Associate Emily Duncan, PhD Candidate

In addition to those cited in this report, we’d like to thank the following individuals for their insights:
    • Alice Reimer, Strategic Advisor, CDL
    • Alison Sunstrum, Founder, CEO CNSRVX-Inc
    • Jim Baker, CEO, Cultura Technologies (Volaris Group)
    • Simon Barber, Former Head, Asia Pacific Regulatory and Stewardship, Syngenta Seeds, Singapore
    • Wilf Keller, Vice President of Outreach, Agri-Food Innovation Council
    • Ray Price, CEO, Sunterra Group
    • Gary Haley, Chair, Haley Family Investment Trust
    • Jay Cross, President, Canadian Academy of Health Sciences; Professor, University of Calgary
    • Lenore Newman, Canada Research Chair in Food Security and the Environment and Professor of Geography, Simon Fraser University
    • Mark Thompson, Executive Vice President, Chief Corporate Development and Strategy Officer, Nutrien Ltd.
    • Michelle Nutting, Director, Agricultural and Environmental Sustainability, Nutrien Ltd.
    • Dan Heaney, Research Associate, Plant Nutrition Canada
    • Tom Steve, General Manager, Alberta Wheat Commission
    • Jason Lenz, Vice President, Alberta Wheat Commission
    • Dan McCann, CEO, Precision AI
    • Juanita Moore, Vice President of Corporate Development, GoodLeaf Farms
    • Janay Meisser, Director of Innovation, United Farmers of Alberta
    • Mauricio Alanís, Director, Sustainability Strategy and Partnerships, Maple Leaf Foods
    • Ryan Phillippe, Director, Corporate Development, Genome Canada
    • Josh Bourassa, Research Associate, The Simpson Centre for Food and Agricultural Policy
    • Elena Vinco, Researcher and Policy Analyst, The Simpson Centre for Food and Agricultural Policy
    • Guillaume Lhermie, Director, The Simpson Centre for Food and Agricultural Policy
    • Lejjy Gafour, President, Cult Food Science Corp.
    • Francis Rowe, CFO, Cult Food Science Corp.
    • Jane Church, Corporate Engagement Manager, Nature United
    • Tony Ward, Professor Emeritus, Department of Economics, Brock University
    • Dave MacMillan, CEO, Deveron UAS
    • Derek Eaton, Director of Public Policy Research and Outreach, Smart Prosperity Institute
    • David Hughes, President and CEO, The Natural Step Canada
    • Stuart Smyth, Associate Professor, College of Agriculture and Bioresources, University of Saskatchewan
    • Kristjan Hebert, Managing Partner, Hebert Grain Ventures
    • John Van Logtenstein, Vice-President, Dairy Lane Systems and DLS Biogas
    • John Walker, Walker Farms
    • Scott Walker, Walker Farms
    • Clyde Graham, Executive Vice President, Fertilizer Canada
    • Josh Pollack, Co-founder, CELL AG TECH
    • Valentin Fulga, Co-founder, CELL AG TECH
    • 1. Without change to current practices or market share, we
project
    • Canada’s current agriculture emissions could rise to 137 megatonnes by 2050
    • 2. Agricultural Institute of Canada, “An Overview of the Canadian Agricultural Innovation System.” 2017.
https://www.rbc.com/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2025/03/AIC-An-Overview-of-the-Canadian-Agricultural-Innovation-System-2017.pdf
    • 3. The Times of Israel, “Israeli companies lead world in plant-based food tech investments — report,” August 2022.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-companies-lead-world-in-plant-based-food-tech-investments/
    • 4. Eco-Business, “Is Singapore poised to become Asia’s hub for alternative protein?,” August 2021.
https://www.eco-business.com/opinion/is-singapore-poised-to-become-asias-hub-for-alternative-protein/
    • 5. BBC Storyworks, “How technology is transforming Japan’s agriculture”
https://www.bbc.com/storyworks/future/the-technology-transforming-agriculture/how-technology-is-transforming-japans-agriculture
    • 6. Fast Company, “How the Netherlands became a plant-based protein powerhouse,” November 2020.
https://www.fastcompany.com/90573547/how-the-netherlands-became-a-plant-based-protein-powerhouse
    • 7. Nutrien, “2022 Environmental, Social ESG And Governance (“ESG”) Report,” 2022.
https://www.rbc.com/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2025/03/Nutrien_ESG-Report-2022.pdf
    • 8. Global CCS Institute. “Facilities Database,”
https://co2re.co/FacilityData
    • 9. Canadian Biogas Association, “Canadian 2020 Biogas Market Report.” April 2021.
https://www.rbc.com/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2025/03/Canadian_2020_Biogas_Market_Full_Report.pdf
    • 10. Columbia Climate School: State of the Planet, “How Sustainable is Vertical Farming? Students Try to Answer the Question,” December 2015.
https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2015/12/10/how-sustainable-is-vertical-farming-students-try-to-answer-the-question/
    • 11. UC Davis, “Cows and climate change: making cattle more sustainable,” June 2019.
https://www.ucdavis.edu/food/news/making-cattle-more-sustainable
    • 12. Breanna M. Roque, Marielena Venegas, Robert D. Kinley, Rocky de Nys, Toni L. Duarte, Xiang Yang, Ermias Kebreab, “Red seaweed (Asparagopsis taxiformis) supplementation reduces enteric methane by over 80 percent in beef steers,” March 2021.
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0247820
    • 13. CBC News, “How feeding cows seaweed could help P.E.I. meet emission targets and boost this business
    • Social Sharing,” November 2021.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-seaweed-feed-methane-emissions-climate-change-1.6228982
    14. Ontario Genomics, “Cellular Agriculture Canada’s $12.5 Billion Opportunity In Food Innovation,” November 2021.

Food is again at the forefront

It’s reshaping the economy, as food prices take inflation higher. It’s redefining national security, as countries reckon with the prospect of strategic supplies. And it’s resetting the climate conversation, as producers and consumers grapple with the need for more food with fewer emissions.

The world needs a new Green Revolution, and Canada can play a leading role. Indeed, we must.

By 2050, we must increase our food production by a quarter just to maintain our contribution as the world’s population swells. We need to grow more for humanity, with less impact on the planet. This can be Canada’s moonshot for 2030 and beyond, if we can harness the imagination and enterprise of Canadians in every sector and geography.

The coming age of disruption, in agriculture and food systems, compelled RBC, BCG Centre for Canada’s Future and Arrell Food Institute at the University of Guelph to take on this project, to help inform and inspire Canadians to see both the urgent need and growing opportunity that will come with more sustainable food systems.

The following report outlines how we can build those systems by:

  • Using breakthrough technologies as well as some well-established practices,
  • Attracting and training a new generation of farm and food innovators,
  • Investing in farmers to develop new economic incentives that reward what they produce as well as what they preserve,
  • And boldly declaring to the world that Canadian agriculture can help everyone move more quickly to a world that has solved the climate crisis.

How we grow, process and consume food is not the key cause of our climate crisis. It can be a key solution. And with the right investments, it can become a made-in-Canada, farmed-in-Canada solution for the world.

John Stackhouse,

    • Senior Vice President, RBC Economics and Thought Leadership

Keith Halliday,

    • Director, BCG Centre for Canada’s Future

Evan Fraser,

    Director, Arrell Food Institute at the University of Guelph

Key findings

Canada’s agriculture and food systems produce 93 megatonnes or just over 10% of our national greenhouse gas emissions annually.1

If Canadian farmers maintain current practices and market share, these emissions could rise to 137 megatonnes as the world’s population increases 26% by 2050.2


Key technologies and approaches that can cut emissions include carbon capture, utilization and storage, feed additives, anaerobic digesters, and precision technology.

Nature-based solutions that sequester carbon will also be critical. Soil carbon has the potential to be one of our most powerful tools, raising the amount of carbon stored in soil to as much as 35MT.

By engaging these technological and management solutions, and mobilizing finance and policy to support farmers, Canada can cut up to 40% of potential 2050 emissions.

New models are needed to reward the adoption of these solutions, to execute them at scale and to reduce uncertainty and risk for farmers.

A Canadian standard for measuring the impact of emissions-cutting activities could provide a vital tool for both compensating farmers and empowering policymakers and financial institutions to support activities.

A national effort, tailored to regional contexts and focused on the key pillars of technology, finance, skills and public policy, will be essential to increasing our production while also cutting emissions.


Leading a low carbon farming revolution

Canada’s agricultural sector is at a turning point.

Global food demand is set to soar as the population rises to 9.7 billion in 2050—a 26% jump.3 At the same time, climate change is disrupting the supply chains and agricultural productivity of many major producers. And geopolitical upheaval from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has destabilized the world’s food systems.

Rarely has feeding the world presented such a daunting challenge. Canada can lead the worldwide effort to confront it.

Our farmers are already among the most productive on the planet, supplying $75 billion worth of food to global markets each year. We’re a top supplier of key crops like wheat and canola and a global leader in the export of beef. We have a large stock of arable land and fresh water, a relatively stable regulatory environment, and international standing as a reliable supplier of safe, high-quality food.

But our successes have come at a cost. Every acre of food we grow, and every animal we raise, add to an emissions footprint that is already too big—and that we’ve committed to shrinking. Farming significantly more acres in the same way will only worsen the problem, since disturbing the soil adds more carbon to the atmosphere.

At the same time, climate change is battering production in many parts of the world, including Canada. But those forces may also, in the medium term, enable Canada to produce more food. This presents us with both a responsibility to help alleviate the global food crisis and an opportunity to expand our presence in international markets.

Realizing these aims will mean directing our strengths at a new target: producing significantly more food—while simultaneously slashing greenhouse gas emissions.

In this report, we identify four key steps that can set us on a path to accomplishing this. These include embracing technologies that cut emissions from fertilizer, livestock digestion and manure while also adopting farming techniques that help store carbon in soil. By leaning into its strengths, Canada can also become a leader in the development of the technologies and plant science that will power the next green revolution in agriculture.

Farmers will be on the frontlines of this transition. But they can’t do it alone. The vast number of activities involved in Canadian agriculture, the diversity of the regions in which they are carried out and the uneven distribution of emissions across them demand a national approach. To make it happen, we’ll need to harness cross-sectoral partnerships, research and innovation, policy development and private investment. We’ll need to expand the ports and railways that carry our goods to market. And we’ll have to think beyond our own borders, leading early efforts among trading partners to galvanize approaches to measurement, labelling and other mechanisms.

Canada has marshalled such an all-of-country approach to support our farmers in the past, mobilizing not just technological advances, but immigration, infrastructure and trade policies, with powerful effect.

By seizing the same spirit of collaboration now, Canadian agriculture can lead the world in the fight against climate change.


There are many different ways to analyze agricultural emissions, which different reports use to view the issue from different perspectives. Canada’s National Inventory Report (NIR) for 2019 identifies 73 megatonnes of emissions from agriculture. A full end-to-end view, including fertilizer, transport, processing, retailing, consumption and disposal, encompasses 136 megatonnes according to our analysis. We based this analysis on Environment Canada’s NIR IPCC reporting with scope 1-3 emissions assigned to operational steps in the value chain to avoid double-counting. Low magnitude and hard to influence scope 3 emissions, including manufacturing emissions of capital assets used in agriculture, were not included. One can also adjust this figure to account for exported and imported food. For import-related agricultural emissions, key import commodities were assigned emission factors per unit imported based on CONCITO databases and leveraged trading partners’ emission databases. For this paper, unless specifically noted in the text, we will define agricultural emissions as fertilizer production and use, enteric fermentation and manure management, on farm fuel use, crop residue, land use conversions and other emissions for a baseline of 93 megatonnes. We consider soil carbon sequestration to be negative emissions from farms. For potential emission reduction levers, estimates are based on current technology, economic, and operational readiness at current cost. These estimates were sized with input from published research, expert interviews, and pressure-tested based on expert judgement. There is significant uncertainty about the future impact of levers, due to both technological immaturity as well as unknowns around scope of implementation, so our lever analysis assumes some feasibility and implementation limits rather than the full theoretical scope of potential emissions reductions. We conducted preliminary analysis on the carbon competitiveness of key Canadian crops, synthesizing the results of multiple studies with varying methodologies. The initial findings are that Canadian agriculture is carbon competitive with our key export competitors; further research and refinement to carbon intensity reporting will be critical going forward.

The global challenge:

Climate change is transforming the way we grow food

<class=”dark-blue”>Climate change is redrawing the map of global food production. The global rise in temperatures that began towards the end of the 20th century has slowed increases in productivity driven by the widespread adoption of chemical fertilizers, more productive varieties of plants and increasingly sophisticated technology.

Since 1961, climate change resulting from human actions slowed overall growth in global agricultural productivity by 21%.4 The story is even bleaker in warmer regions like Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, where the growth in productivity was between 26% and 34% lower than it would have been without climate change. For many countries in the tropics, farming is set to get even harder: for every degree global temperatures rise, maize yields will fall by 7.4% and rice yields by 3.2%.

Canada won’t escape the ravages of climate change—heat, drought and extreme storms battered production as recently as 2021—but the impact will be different. By 2050, yields in parts of Canada could improve by up to 50% (as warming temperatures extend growing seasons) even as they decline by 20% to 50% in areas of China, India and the U.S.5

And as the poles warm, roughly 1.85 million square kilometres of land in Canada’s north may become suitable for staple crop production by 2080.6 With Canada losing an estimated 60,000 acres of prime farmland to urban expansion each year, there may be temptation to farm or develop it.7 But the consequences of allowing agriculture to push north could be catastrophic: releasing roughly 15 gigatonnes of carbon, if forests and wetlands are cleared and ploughed.

To feed the world, Canada will need to grow more food, without adding significantly to its stock of farmland.

Cutting emissions is key to maintaining our global agricultural might

Canada is already an agricultural superpower. The Prairies grow enough wheat to rank us among the top three exporting nations. And they churn out enough canola to dominate global markets. The mines of Saskatchewan produce and ship more critical potassium fertilizer than any other country—a billion tonnes per year. We’re among the world’s largest exporters of beef and a top exporter of lentils.

As the fifth largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, Canada’s agricultural sector is also a major contributor to the country’s carbon footprint.

Canada is a major global exporter of key agricultural commodities

Emissions intensity per kg of production (Indexed to Canadian emissions intensity)


Unleashing growth requires overcoming unique challenges

As powerful as Canada’s agricultural sector is today, significant potential remains untapped. In 2017, the Advisory Council on Economic Growth projected Canada could target an 8% global market share in agricultural products by 2027 (up from 5.7% in 2015)—making us the world’s second largest exporter after the U.S.8 As one of the few countries with the capacity to increase agricultural exports (even accounting for climate disruption), that goal appears increasingly within reach. Indeed, as new markets and trading relationships develop in response to geopolitical turbulence and climate change, more opportunities will open for major producers. Spain recently lobbied the European Commission to drop import controls on animal feed from third party countries as it struggled to address gaps left by major supplier Ukraine.9 Driven by the same shortages, as well as a desire to reduce dependence on the U.S., China is looking to accelerate imports of Brazilian corn.10

“Only a small cluster of places supply grain to the world and when you have a problem in any one of them, that loss has to be soaked up. Canada is among a narrow set of countries that has material production capacity and an exportable surplus. We’ll have all kinds of opportunities.” Al Mussell, Research Director, Canada Agri-Food Policy InstituteBut if the opportunities in agriculture’s green transformation are abundant, so too are the challenges we’ll have to manage to make it happen. They begin with the unique presence of food in our daily lives. In addition to sustaining us, food plays a central role in our celebrations, our daily rituals and our communities. As a result, changes in its availability and prices are much more visible and felt more directly by consumers. This makes change politically sensitive and difficult to carry out.

And while agriculture shares many of the challenges faced by heavy emitting, trade-exposed sectors, its pathway to reduced emissions is complicated by farm economics. Input costs are unpredictable—fertilizer expenses, for instance, increased by 31.8% in 2021 while livestock feed costs rose 23%.11 Prices for agricultural commodities, which make up the bulk of farm revenues, are among the most volatile of trade-exposed industries. And the ability to absorb these fluctuations varies widely among farm types, with profit margins on the higher end for supply-managed dairy and poultry farmers and on the lower end for beef and swine farmers who are exposed to large market swings.

Now, increasingly frequent extreme weather events—to which agriculture is more exposed than any other sector—are introducing new challenges. Amid these pressures, many farmers are reluctant to adopt new practices that add more uncertainty to their operations.12

Dairy, grain, and oilseeds are most profitable sectors

Average farm net income 2009-2019, % of revenues

 

Beyond the farm gate, the broader supply chain introduces its own obstacles. Canada’s agricultural sector is highly fragmented, subject to both global and regional headwinds and regulated by a patchwork of provincial and national strategies. For the most part, it is also heavily dependent on a network of rail and port infrastructure that has increasingly faced pressures, including labour shortages and disruptions due to extreme weather events. “We are in the privileged position of having all this supply that the world wants and they want it now,” said Jean-Marc Ruest, Senior Vice President, Corporate Affairs and General Counsel at Richardson International, Canada’s leading grain exporter. “But we are really struggling to get the grain out of Canada. We really need to invest in our trade infrastructure.”

The National Supply Chain Task Force has recommended a nationwide effort that brings together government and industry leaders to strengthen our transportation network against changing trade patterns, climate disruption and geopolitical risk.13 A similar approach should be brought to the challenge of lowering carbon emissions in the agricultural supply chain.

We can start by addressing three key sources of greenhouse gases in the sector—fertilizer, cattle digestion and manure. In the coming section, we’ll examine the tools that can help cut those emissions—including anaerobic digesters, carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), and feed additives—as well as the challenges we face in putting them to work. We’ll also look at the potential of “regenerative agriculture” to store carbon in soil. This approach includes a set of sustainable farming practices, like reduced soil tillage and cover cropping that can also make our land more resilient to the effects of climate change.

Finally we’ll examine how our existing strengths can help us lead the research and development of new technologies that could be central to the future of farming. Together, these steps can help form the foundation of Canada’s green agricultural revolution.


Four key building blocks for a low emissions agriculture and food system

Key challenge: Fertilizer production and use produces 28MT of GHGs or 30% of our total agricultural emissions (11.9MT from production; 16MT from use)
Without change: emissions will rise to 35MT by 2050
Game changers: Use: Smart fertilizers, precision technology, nutrient stewardship. Production: carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), low carbon energy feedstock
The potential: To reduce emissions by 14MT by 2050

Few places demonstrate the scale and potential of Canadian agriculture like Rob Stone’s 9,000 acre farm in Davidson, Saskatchewan. In the 1960s, Stone’s land produced 20 bushels of wheat per acre. Today, it generates 50 bushels an acre, a boost Stone credits to better plant genetics, his own farming practices and nitrogenous fertilizer.

Fertilizer use represents the single biggest input cost on Canadian farms and like many, Stone has taken steps to use it sparingly. It’s also the biggest contributor to Canada’s agricultural carbon footprint and a good place to start on our journey to a green agricultural sector.

Nitrogen feeds plants, which absorb it in their roots. Some crops, like pulses, don’t need it because they draw nitrogen from the air. But for top Canadian exports like wheat and canola, nitrogen fertilizer is essential and used on just about every field that grows them. Nitrogen fertilizer releases carbon dioxide when it’s produced and can produce nitrogenous oxide (a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential 265 to 298 times that of carbon dioxide over a 100-year period) when applied to fields.14,15

The good news is we have tools to reduce its use. And Canada has made progress in adopting some of them. They begin with careful planning of how fertilizer is applied on the farm. Some industry-led initiatives can assist farmers in building these plans. For instance, Fertilizer Canada’s “4R Nutrient Stewardship”, emphasizes applying the right type of fertilizer, using the right rate for application, and applying it at the right time and in the right place. Scientific assessments for Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada show the widespread adoption of some 4R practices—for example, the use of enhanced efficiency fertilizers and split application of fertilizer—could lead to significant emissions reductions.

More advanced practices, aided by data and precision technology, could take us further. On his farm in Davidson, about halfway from Saskatoon to Regina, Stone tests his soil annually, monitors yields, and uses that information to build custom plans for seeding and fertilizing at variable rates. The shift has paid off: he’s using 8 to 10% less fertilizer. The technology he uses—an air drill—also made it possible for him to plant his crops without tilling the soil, a practice that improves soil quality and increases productivity by reducing the need to rest land in alternate years.

Cutting emissions from fertilizer production involves solutions at a much larger, industrial scale. Carbon capture, utilization and storage systems (CCUS), which are beginning to be used in the oil and gas sector, capture emissions before they enter the atmosphere and compress them into a liquid that’s shipped by pipeline to a storage facility. Saskatoon-based Nutrien is now using such a system to capture carbon dioxide from its Redwater plant and move it via the Alberta Carbon Trunk Line to enhanced oil recovery projects in central Alberta. Another option being explored is the process of electrolysis, which produces fertilizer by using renewable electricity to draw hydrogen from water.

The challenges: Many Canadian farms are small and operate on thin margins that make absorbing the cost of soil testing and precision agricultural technology difficult. A recent RBC survey of 200 Canadian farmers, found that those with lower annual revenues ($250,000 to $999,000) were less likely than those with higher-revenues to be using environmentally sustainable farming practices. (However, nearly all lower revenue farms that have not yet adopted green farming practices are planning to do so in the near future). Just 13% of farmers across Canada are using variable rate techniques on their farms.16 And though the number is rising, less than a third of farmers are currently testing soil for nutrients on an annual basis—a starting point for more efficient fertilizer use.

For farmers, the risk of change is also a challenge. Research shows many producers are reluctant to adopt practices that introduce uncertainty to their operations. “These are family farms,” said Don Smith, Vice President, Petroleum and Innovation at United Farmers of Alberta. “They’re not going to experiment with new technologies if there’s a risk it could negatively impact their ability to feed their family.”

Cost and uncertainty are barriers on the production side too. Beyond Nutrien’s Redwater facility, only a minor fraction of fertilizer production employs CCUS. Though costs vary by facility, the estimated capital cost of this technology can be up to $50 million per plant depending on facility size and location, with barriers to investment including uncertainty about regulatory approvals and carbon pricing17. What’s more, CCUS is heavily dependent on infrastructure that requires further development, including carbon pipelines and storage hubs.

“The most cost effective, immediately available technology is carbon capture and storage. But it is capital intensive.” Clyde Graham, Executive Vice President, Fertilizer Canada


Current carbon sequestered in soil: 13MT
Game changers: Agroforestry, biochar, alley cropping, silvopasture, conservation and no-till practices, cover cropping, avoided land use conversion
The potential: Negative emissions rising up to 35MT

When it comes to growing food, soil is our most precious resource. About 95% of the world’s food is grown in the uppermost layer of topsoil—more than half of which has disappeared in the last 150 years due to modern, intensive farming practices. Without change, the consequences of losing even more soil will be severe. The earth’s ability to grow food and absorb water plummets without healthy topsoil, leaving us more vulnerable to both hunger and flooding.

Soil performs another vital service: it stores carbon. Indeed, while agriculture is one of the key contributors to emissions, it also holds enormous power to act as a “carbon sink,” removing carbon from the atmosphere where it contributes to climate change. Modern farming practices, like tilling, can impair this important function by disturbing the carbon in soil.

Investing in our soil then, is a critical early step in establishing a green agriculture sector. “Regenerative agriculture” aims to do this through a holistic approach to farming intended to improve soil health, protect biodiversity and draw greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere and into the ground. Though the term first appeared in the 1980s, it gained traction following a 2014 paper by the non-profit Rodale Institute, which outlined how certain soil-friendly farming techniques could sequester carbon in soil. It’s since become a top food trend in the U.S., where a growing range of products feature it as a credential and where companies like General Mills, PepsiCo and Nestle have announced commitments to advancing regenerative agriculture on millions of acres of farmland. In Canada, companies including McCain Foods, Maple Leaf Foods, Nutrien and McDonald’s Canada have launched similar initiatives.

Broadly speaking, regenerative agriculture refers to a set of practices, including reducing or eliminating soil tillage, planting cover crops (which prevent erosion and improve fertility) and furthering animal grazing techniques (which give land time to regenerate and improve the soil’s ability to store carbon).

Many Canadian farmers already use these regenerative agriculture practices. About 60% of farmers use no-till or conservation tillage practices, for example. In Saskatchewan, that figure is even higher at 80%. Adoption of other practices could take us further. Cover cropping has the potential to mitigate 9.6MT of emissions, according to the non-profit Nature United. And biochar, which turns agricultural waste into a soil enhancer that can hold carbon, could cut 6.8MT. But adopting practices that draw greenhouse gasses out of the atmosphere is only part of the equation. We also need to prevent future emissions from happening in the first place. One way to do this is by protecting grasslands, which currently trap a huge amount of carbon. Preventing grasslands from being ploughed up or paved over could mitigate 12.4MT of carbon emissions in Canada.

Many of these practices—which are now under the banner of regenerative agriculture—have long been used by Indigenous communities. And these communities have much knowledge to share as we explore the potential of these techniques.

“It’s what we’ve done all along and it’s the opposite of primitive. It’s about resilience and adaptation. You can push the land but you have to also invest, not squeeze every last drop out of it.” Jennifer Grenz, Assistant Professor, University of British ColumbiaThe challenges: Greater adoption of regenerative agriculture has been hindered by financial concerns among farmers. The cost of adopting it varies per acre across practices. And upfront investments in enabling equipment like air seeders can also be prohibitive. Producers—particularly those with slim profit margins—typically need assurances that returns will cover those costs and the risks associated with them. But according to our research, the benefits of some of these practices generally only begin to outstrip the costs four years after their adoption. And profitability appears only in year six. Meantime, markets to compensate farmers for storing carbon in soil—as well as the methods to measure it—are still in experimental stages and generally lack a sufficient payout to make up the for the upfront investment.

Uncertainty presents another, critical barrier. Regenerative agriculture lacks a single legal or regulatory definition and there is no oversight for how it’s used. This leaves it open to misuse and bold claims about its power to store carbon, when much of that is still open to scientific debate. With no single test or certification for claims, farmers (and consumers) are left to sort out credibility on their own.

Soil carbon sequestration is key to cutting emissions

Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent

 

 

Defining the term and creating a system to measure, report and verify (MRV) the carbon stored in soil due to regenerative agriculture (and the ecosystem services provided), would empower consumer choices. An MRV tool would also make it easier to attach a price to practices and lead to a market where carbon credits can be bought and sold. Some pilot projects are underway to create “carbon farms” that include attempts to build accurate MRV systems. Other projects are experimenting with advanced mathematical models that estimate how different farm management strategies may sequester carbon.

Whatever system is established will need to address myriad regional variations in soil types across the country, as well as limitations related to farming type and size. Creating a nationwide MRV accounting tool will also require a much broader system for soil testing than Canada currently has. Technology, and in particular the advancement of remote soil sensors, will be critical enablers of these systems.

Answers to these questions and others—including how to regulate future carbon markets—will take time to come together. Until then, we’ll need to find ways to incentivize farmers using the best tools we have, while consistently adopting better ones as they arise.

“We couldn’t produce without cover crops. Crazy storms used to wipe out our crops. Not anymore.”Gillian Flies, Owner, The New Farm


Key challenge: Cattle digestion produces 24MT of emissions
Without change: Emissions will rise to 30MT by 2050
Game changers: Feed additives, GHG selective breeding
The potential: To reduce emissions by 16MT by 2050

Cow burps and manure may not immediately spring to mind when we think about climate change. But Canada’s dairy and beef cattle are the biggest sources of agricultural emissions after fertilizer. Through their digestion process or “enteric fermentation”, cattle produce methane, a potent greenhouse gas with a 20 year global warming potential 85 times that of carbon dioxide.18 And in Canada, where the agricultural sector accounts for 30% of national methane emissions, 85% can be directly attributed to cattle.19

The paradox is that cattle can also act as stewards of the land. Canada has about 35 million acres of native grassland and nine million acres of seeded grasslands that act as carbon sinks. By grazing on this land, cattle stimulate grass roots to grow deeper, better enabling carbon to be stored in the soil. Using land for grazing also prevents it from being converted to other uses, which impacts biodiversity and disturbs carbon in the soil.

Adding to the complexity, Canadian beef has one of the smallest carbon footprints globally, with greenhouse gas emissions well below the global average. That makes us a critical beef supplier as the world looks to cut emissions. Our dairy cattle too, emit fewer GHGs per kilogram of final product than the global average.

Still, the outsized contribution of cattle to climate change means more must be done. Researchers are working on breeding techniques that could produce cattle that release less methane and that process feed more efficiently. Feed additives that cut the amount of methane produced during digestion could offer a more immediate breakthrough for the sector. One such additive, called 3NOP, is already in use in other countries—it has yet to be approved in Canada—and has been shown to cut emissions by as much as 45%.20 Adding seaweed to the diet of dairy cows could also cut emissions by as much as 82% while also improving the efficiency of cattle—that is, helping them grow more using less feed.21

The challenge: Feed is the most expensive and most critical input on a beef or dairy farm and questions remain about how much additives will cost amid strong international demand. A more practical concern is how to administer the additives to beef cattle that spend much of their lives grazing in open fields (where the most emissions are released).

“Feed additives are a hard sell. As we have learned working with veterinarians and feedlot operators, basically there’s no incentive…And ultimately we’re depending on the unknown: the adoption of the farmer.” Elena Vinco, Researcher and Policy Analyst, The Simpson Centre for Food and Agricultural Policy


Key challenge: Manure produces 8MT of emissions
Without change: Emissions will rise to 10MT by 2050
Game changer: Anaerobic digesters
The potential: To reduce emissions by 4MT by 2050

While less potent than cow burps, manure packs a major punch when it comes to emissions. Today, 8MT of total agricultural emissions come from manure. Of this, 55% are generated by cattle.

Walker Farms in Aylmer, southeast of London, Ontario, offers a glimpse at one way to bring those emissions down—while adding to the farm’s bottom line. The dairy operation partnered with Ontario-based DLS Biogas to build a $16 million anaerobic digester, technology that turns manure and organic waste into electricity or renewable natural gas (RNG). Farmers can either use that energy on the farm, cutting their own costs, or sell it to natural gas utilities like Fortis B.C. under long-term contracts. Fortis buys the gas and the carbon credits associated with it.

Digestate, an odourless byproduct, can in turn be used as fertilizer. Canada currently has 279 biogas projects in operation. And with only 13% of available biogas energy production being tapped in Canada, there’s room to grow, with the most significant potential identified in the agricultural sector.22

The challenges: Anaerobic digesters are gaining traction, largely due to the extra revenue they bring to farms. The Walkers expect to see their initial investment returned in eight years.

But the upfront cost of digesters—running anywhere from $7 million to $70 million—place them out of reach for smaller operators. The Walkers and DLS Biogas have applied for a series of grants (a process that took hundreds of hours to complete) but there are no guarantees and no programs specifically tailored to biogas.

And digesters may not make sense for every farm. With at least 150 cows needed to produce enough manure to feed a digester (Ontario averages 70 to 80 cows per farm), size matters. Access to landfilled food waste, which is also added to digesters, and pipelines to move the RNG to market are also critical. Large beef feedlots in Alberta tend to have better access to this infrastructure and enough cattle to make production economically viable. But the clay surface used in many cattle pens can end up in manure, damaging biodigester machinery. Many feedlots are converting to roller compacted concrete, which improves cattle efficiency and eliminates the problem of clay in the biogas process. This, too, is costly.

The development of communal digesters could allow smaller farms to participate in the production of biogas. But support to help cover the upfront costs—and a streamlined process to obtain it—will be critical.


Key challenge: 93 MT overall
Without change: 137 MT
Game changers: Advanced ag-tech that cuts emissions, enables more carbon to be stored in soil and leads to more production on less land
The potential: To enable 54 MT in potential emissions reductions (or as much as 76 MT when soil sequestration is added)

Canada has a long history of agricultural innovation. The development of Marquis Wheat in 1904 was vital to the boom in Prairie crop yields that followed. Canola, created in Saskatchewan in the 1960s, is now one of the world’s most important oilseed crops. The grain auger was invented in Canada. And air seeders bearing the logo of Saskatchewan’s Seed Hawk can now be found on fields from Australia to Europe.

All of these developments fueled step changes in the productivity of Canadian agriculture. The next generation of technologies will need to do more than that. Indeed, all of the emissions reductions envisioned in this paper will in some way rely on technology—innovations like CCUS, biodigesters and precision tools. Technology will also be critical to producing more food on less land and by extension, avoiding the conversion of land into cropland. Our estimates suggest we can avoid 20MT of emissions by preventing land use change between now and 2050. Storing more carbon in soil—producing negative emissions—will also depend on increasingly sophisticated devices like soil sensors and drones that enable the market innovation necessary to accelerate new approaches like regenerative agriculture.

Canada’s heft in global agriculture markets, its longstanding expertise in crop science and its newfound strength in artificial intelligence and data science, position us well to lead in some areas of this race. Yet when it comes to drawing private investment to homegrown innovation, we’re falling behind. Of roughly US$36 billion in global venture capital and private equity investments in ag-tech since 2017, Canada received just 3%, or US$1 billion. The U.S. captured US$20 billion or 55% of investments.

Critically, private equity and venture capital investment has lagged in some of the areas that have historically reaped the largest rewards for Canadian agriculture. As we look to lower emissions, crop genetics and soil science (including microbiome research) hold some of the greatest potential for boosting production on existing farmland, cutting carbon emissions and improving resilience to droughts and flooding. While much of our research has been focused “above the soil” in the past, scientists are increasingly turning their attention to the potential of root structures and soil microbiomes to cut emissions. But so far, private investment in these fields hasn’t rushed to Canada. Of total global private equity and venture capital investment of roughly US$10 billion since 2017, our ventures in crop genetics have drawn only US$82 million.

In addition, much of the investment Canada is attracting isn’t going to the kinds of technologies we need now to transition to a more sustainable agriculture and food sector. Globally, over half of private investment in ag-tech in 2021 was in sustainable practices. But in Canada, most investments are focused on digitization and automation, technology designed with productivity, not sustainability, in mind.

As we work to deploy these solutions today we’ll also need to keep an eye to the future, investing in earlier stage technologies that can help us adapt our food systems to climate change. “Controlled environment” agriculture, such as greenhouses and vertical farms that allow crops to be grown indoors and in stacked layers, is taking off around the world. Canada currently imports fresh produce at a low cost from regions that are far more vulnerable to climate change. Tech-based alternatives like these could help us maintain domestic food security in an increasingly volatile world of climate and political disruptions. Meantime, cellular agriculture and precision fermentation technologies, which are advancing rapidly, could increasingly provide consumers with alternatives to meat and dairy products.

“I think plant breeding could really do it for us. If you look at all the advances we’ve made in higher yields, disease, resistance, all these kinds of traits and that’s all been focused above ground. There’s an equal opportunity below ground to make all kinds of significant advancements.” Stuart Smyth, Associate Professor, College of Agriculture and Bioresources, University of SaskatchewanThe challenges: Artificial intelligence and data science, engineering, the “Internet of Things”, including sensors and drones, as well as biotechnology, are critical to the development of modern ag-tech. So are the skills that go with them. Yet efforts to draw this specialized talent and develop these skills among youth have fallen short of our needs.

Most support for Canadian research comes from public funding—which has been behind many of our successes. Marquis Wheat, which dramatically improved yields in the Prairies in the early 1900s, was developed through Dominion Experimental Farms—a system of stations, operated by the federal government, which investigated agricultural problems and created new techniques to assist farmers. Current funding programs can be onerous for researchers, particularly for emerging technologies that don’t fall easily into specific funding categories. And certain regulatory requirements—including those surrounding novel plant traits—can act as barriers to approval and investment in emerging areas of plant science like gene editing.

While Canadian researchers continue to rely on public investment, other countries including the U.S., are seeing most of their overall research dollars come from the private sector. Competing in the next era of agriculture will depend on our ability to mobilize more of this capital.

Fighting food waste

<class=”dark-blue”>Emissions arise not just from the food we grow but from the food we waste. In Canada, 58% of the food produced for human consumption is wasted or lost along the supply chain, of which 18% could be avoided.23 The economic cost of all that waste is $49 billion a year—a figure that climbs even higher when lost labour, transportation and other factors are accounted for.

Though a lot of waste happens during production and processing, just 14% of that is avoidable. Technological advancements have done much to eliminate food loss at the production stage, an effort driven in part by the cost savings it generates.

Among consumers, the problem of food waste is far more entrenched. Studies suggest 18% of all food produced is wasted in ways that could be avoided. Almost half of that avoidable waste comes from hotels, restaurants and households, with consumers in wealthier countries far more likely to waste food than those in poorer countries. As that food decomposes in landfills, it releases greenhouse gases, as much as 12 MT—when measured from end-to-end.

Solving the problem of consumer food waste means tackling a cluster of causes. These include time scarcity (consumers lack the time they need to plan meals and use food before it goes bad); a lack of education on how to prevent food waste through more thoughtful storage and use of cooking waste like vegetable stalks; and retail promotions that encourage consumers to buy more than they need.

In addition to cutting food loss, industry has done much to extend the shelf life of food through packaging and other controls. More novel packaging solutions are underway that use plant-based and microbial packaging and coating solutions to do the same. Sensors can tell us when food has actually spoiled rather than leaving consumers to rely on best before dates. And new business models are emerging, such as those that transform food that doesn’t meet retail standards into poultry feed and other uses.

But ultimately, solving the problem of food waste will depend on us.


Recommendations: Seeding change

Cutting our greenhouse gas emissions, while also meeting our responsibility to feed the world, is a challenge rife with uncertainty. With many agricultural technologies and farm practices still in nascent stages, and widespread adoption still elusive, questions will continue to hang over our actions.

This risks paralyzing our efforts at a time when there isn’t time to lose. The stakes of the current food crisis are staggering: shortages and high prices for staple goods, have put the lives and livelihoods of 345 million people in immediate danger of acute food insecurity.24 Low income countries, many of which depend on imports from Ukraine and Russia, including Somalia, South Sudan and Yemen, are among the most vulnerable. In North America and other higher income countries, soaring food prices due to shortages and post-pandemic inflation are also dominating public agendas.

The urgency of the situation means we’ll need to act boldly using the best tools we have today. And we’ll need to do it together. Policymakers, private businesses and producers will need to collaborate in new ways as we pursue a national strategy designed to support farmers. This begins by focusing on the building blocks we’ve identified above, and on the key pillars of technology, people, policy, and economics. Working with BCG Centre for Canada’s Future and the Arrell Food Institute, we’ll explore each of these pillars in depth in the coming months.

Building an agricultural sector fit for an age of climate disruption is a challenge unlike any we’ve faced. But few countries are better positioned than Canada to confront it.

The global threat of food insecurity growing. So, too, is our ability to lead a new age of innovation to both harvest our land and sustain it.

Planting a paradigm shift: Building the 4 key pillars of a low emissions food strategy

 

Policy

Establish a national plan for a low-emissions agriculture sector. Our plan for cutting emissions must take all stakeholders into account and rally not just farmers, but investors, private business and Canadians. Producing food more sustainably will mean making tough choices and supporting investment in key technologies, like carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS). It will also mean doing a better job of marketing Canada’s sustainable food to the world.

Lead efforts to create global alignment on a low-emissions food standard. Roughly 61% of our agricultural emissions are tied to goods that are ultimately exported. Advancing an emissions reduction strategy that’s misaligned with our key export markets could create friction in our trading relationships. We need to align trading partners around a common set of goals, indicators and GHG measurement, reporting and verification protocols. Canada, a longstanding supporter of free trade, and a global leader in multilateral processes, can lead these efforts.

Integrate agricultural strategies with energy strategies. Farmers are increasingly embracing opportunities to generate renewable natural gas from their operations. Integrating these efforts with a national energy strategy could help accelerate the deployment of clean energy both on and off the farm.

Technology

Create a central funding body for research and development, operating in close partnership with academia and the private sector. Many of the most promising and advanced areas of Canadian agricultural research don’t fit within current funding categories. A more centralized system such as in the United States Department of Agriculture, could develop a more holistic, nationwide view of where support and innovation is needed. The leadership shown by federal governments in creating the innovation super clusters provides a playbook for how Canada can super charge agri-food research and innovation.

Focus on technologies that hold the most promise to cut emissions. As we target funding to technology that accelerates productivity, we need to also attract more investment to technologies that cut emissions from key drivers in the supply chain—innovations like anaerobic digesters, feed additives and CCUS. Funding should also be focused on those technologies that enable sustainable practices to be adopted and rewarded, like soil sensors, and precision technologies.

Create innovative tax and financial incentives to spur more private investment. Accelerating private investment in Canadian agtech will mean thinking more creatively about the tax and financial incentives we have in place. We need to encourage the automation that will be key to our agricultural productivity and international competitiveness—and that will draw more capital to the technologies that will drive the future of low emissions farming. Expanding accelerated depreciation beyond tangible assets to include artificial intelligence and other agtechs is one possibility.

Economics

Make it pay. Forcing farmers to pay for emissions they already produce could add pressure to high food prices. A better approach is to compensate farmers for reducing them. Yet existing models like carbon credits are insufficient and place an unequal burden on the farmer. A national standard for measuring the impact of emissions-cutting activities, including a mechanism for measuring, reporting and verifying (MRV) carbon stored in soils, could be critical to compensating farmers and to empowering policymakers and financial institutions to mobilize support. This standard—also key to attracting investment—will need to be designed and regulated on a national basis and aligned internationally with our major trading partners.

Share the risk. For farmers, the adopting of emissions-cutting technology adds more uncertainty to a business already weighted with risk. Governments and other companies in the agricultural value chain have an important role to play in sharing the risk burden. That’ll mean insuring against yield losses for farmers who adopt sustainable practices. For example, right now there is no incentive for sustainable agriculture under crop insurance schemes though these practices are proven to reduce the impact of flooding and drought. Crop insurers should be willing to adjust premiums to reflect these shifting risks.

People

Build the skills. Leverage the Labour Market Information Council to pinpoint the skills farmers need to shift toward a more resilient food system. As we’ve noted in previous research, digital skills will be critical to the future of food production.25 So too will knowing how to apply tools in ways that cut emissions. Beyond data and technology, some farmers will need support to employ regenerative agriculture techniques and other tools on the farm. Experiential learning platforms including hands-on mentorship and co-op programs can accelerate this transition.

Broaden the talent pool. The lack of awareness about the potential for a fulfilling career in agriculture has hampered recruitment of individuals with the coding, artificial intelligence and data science skills critical to the future of food. Yet few sectors hold greater potential for innovation than agriculture. Educating students on the opportunities in the field—through co-ops, outreach and liaison programs—will be critical to bringing their talents to the challenge.


For more, go to rbc.com/climate.

Download the Report

Contributors:

RBC

Naomi Powell, Managing Editor, Economics and Thought Leadership
John Stackhouse, Senior Vice President
Colin Guldimann, Economist
Farah Huq, Senior Director, Content Strategy
Darren Chow, Senior Manager, Digital Media
Trinh Theresa Do, Senior Manager, Thought Leadership Strategy
Zeba Khan, Manager, Digital Publishing
Aidan Smith-Edgell, Research Associate
Kitty Wu, Intern
Gwen Paddock, Director, Sustainability & Climate – Agriculture
Ryan Riese, National Director, Agriculture

Boston Consulting Group

Keith Halliday, Director, Centre for Canada’s Future
Kilian Berz, Managing Director and Senior Partner
Shalini Unnikrishnan, Managing Director and Partner
Sonya Hoo, Managing Director and Partner
Chris Fletcher, Managing Director and Partner
Thomas Foucault, Managing Director and Partner
Wendi Backler, Partner and Director, BCG Centre for Growth and Innovation Analytics
Kate Banting, Head of Marketing and Social Impact
Simon Beck, Principal
Youssef Aroub, Project Leader
Ilana Hosios, Consultant
Anguel Dimov, Consultant
Pilar Pedrinelli, Consultant
Zahid Gani, Consultant
Rachel Ross, Consultant
Rachit Sharma, Lead Knowledge Analyst, BCG Centre for Growth and Innovation Analytics

Arrell Food Institute, University of Guelph

Evan Fraser, Director
Margarita Fontecha, Arrell Food Institute Scholar, Ph.D. Candidate, Environmental Design and Rural Development
Laura Hanley, M.Sc. Student, Food Science
Ibrahim Mohammed, Ph.D. Candidate, Environmental Sciences
Deus Mugabe, Ph.D. Candidate, Plant Agriculture
Brenda Zai, M.Sc. Student, Food Science
Dr. Krishna KC, Research Scientist
Dr. Jesus Pulido-Castanon, Post-doctoral Research Associate
Emily Duncan, PhD Candidate

1. This figure does not include downstream processing, transportation, retail or food service operations. See methodology.

2. See methodology.

3. World Population Growth – Our World in Data

4. Anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth | Nature Climate Change

5. World Economic Forum (weforum.org)

6. Opportunities and trade-offs for expanding agriculture in Canada’s North: an ecosystem service perspective (facetsjournal.com)

7. Why You Should Care About Farmland Loss – Canadians for a Sustainable Society

8. key-sectors-secteurs-cles-eng.pdf (budget.gc.ca)

9. UPDATE 1-Spain lobbying European Commission to buy emergency corn from Argentina | Reuters

10. China Set to Import Brazilian Corn in Challenge to US Supply – Bloomberg

11. The Daily — Farm income, 2021 (statcan.gc.ca)

12. Climate Change Is Hitting Farmers Hard – Scientific American

13. Act. Collaboration. Transformation. Final Report of the National Supply Chain Task Force 2022 (canada.ca)

14. Fifth Assessment Report — IPCC

15. Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report) | UNFCCC

16. SPARK-FERTILIZER-USE-IN-CANADA-REPORT-2022-VF_08_04_2022.pdf (fertilizercanada.ca)

17. CCUS-Strategy_Template-for-Input_Fertilizer-Canada-Response_Final_March-2022-combined.pdf (fertilizercanada.ca)

18. In other words, over 20 years, one gram of methane produces 85 times the amount of warming as a gram of carbon dioxide.

19. Home Page – Simpson Centre

20. Home Page – Simpson Centre

21. Red seaweed (Asparagopsis taxiformis) supplementation reduces enteric methane by over 80 percent in beef steers | PLOS ONE

22. Canada’s 2020 Biogas Market Report : Canadian Biogas Association

23. The Avoidable Crisis of Food Waste: Technical Report (secondharvest.ca)

24. Global Food Crisis Demands Support for People, Open Trade, Bigger Local Harvests (imf.org)

25. Farmer 4.0: How the Coming Skills Revolution Can Transform Agriculture – RBC Thought Leadership

Farmer 4.0: How the Coming Skills Revolution Can Transform Agriculture – RBC Thought Leadership

In addition to those cited in this report, we’d like to thank the following individuals for their insights:

Katie M. Wood, Associate professor, Ruminant Nutrition and Physiology, University of Guelph

Lisa Ashton, PhD Candidate, University of Guelph

Lenore Newman, Canada Research Chair in Food Security and the Environment and Professor of Geography, Simon Fraser University

Dennis Laycraft, Executive Director, Canadian Cattle Association

Brenna Grant, Executive Director, Canfax Research Services

Mark Thompson, Executive Vice President, Chief Corporate Development and Strategy Officer, Nutrien Ltd.

Michelle Nutting, Director, Agricultural and Environmental Sustainability, Nutrien Ltd.

Dan Heaney, Research Associate, Plant Nutrition Canada

Tom Steve, General Manager, Alberta Wheat Commission

Jason Lenz, Vice President, Alberta Wheat Commission

Dan McCann, CEO, Precision AI

Daniel Brisebois, Ferme Coopérative Tourne-Sol

Juanita Moore, Vice President of Corporate Development, GoodLeaf Farms

Janay Meisser, Director of Innovation, United Farmers of Alberta

Les Wall, CEO, KCL Cattle Company

Kate Parizeau, Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Environment, and Geomatics, University of Guelph

Tammara Soma, Assistant Professor, School of Resource and Environmental Management (Planning), Simon Fraser University

Mauricio Alanís, Director, Sustainability Strategy and Partnerships, Maple Leaf Foods

Ryan Phillippe, Director, Corporate Development, Genome Canada

Josh Bourassa, Research Associate, The Simpson Centre for Food and Agricultural Policy

Guillaume Lhermie, Director, The Simpson Centre for Food and Agricultural Policy

Lejjy Gafour, President, Cult Food Science Corp.

Jane Church, Corporate Engagement Manager, Nature United

Tony Ward, Professor Emeritus, Department of Economics, Brock University

Tyson Kamminga, Chief Financial Officer, Kroeker Farms Limited

Wayne Rempel, CEO, Kroeker Farms Limited

Brian Gilvesy, CEO, ALUS

Dave MacMillan, CEO, Deveron UAS

Derek Eaton, Director of Public Policy Research and Outreach, Smart Prosperity Institute

David Hughes, President and CEO, The Natural Step Canada

How have job cuts changed the fierce war for talent in tech? In this edition of Disruptors: The 10-Minute Take, co-host Trinh Theresa Do explores the wave of uncertainty that’s hit the sector, how firms should be rethinking their strategies and what it all means for tech workers. She’s joined by Anthony Mouchantaf, Director of Venture Capital at RBCx to offer advice for navigating the months ahead. Episode Notes To learn more about RBCx and its offerings, visit www.rbcx.com
Speaker 1 [00:00:03] Hey, it’s Theresa. In our season opener of Disruptors, we focused on the great resignation, or some call it the great reshuffle. And several months later, the landscape has changed, particularly in the tech sector. For years, tech has led the stock market with high profits and an ethos of growth at all costs, fueled by easy capital at a pandemic that moved much of the world online. That’s all changing now, with trillions in market value lost in a wave of tech layoffs in recent weeks. We may be seeing the job trend shifting from the great resignation, the great reshuffle, the great layoffs. Instead, nearly 17,000 workers from more than 70 tech startups around the world were laid off in May 2020 to a 350% increase from the previous month. This is according to layoffs.fi, a site that tracks layoffs in the tech sector. It’s a challenging time for leadership teams in tech firms and especially for those employed by the sector. This is Disruptors, the ten minute take, where we dive into the latest innovation, tech and economic buzz. This week’s take is on the tech layoffs and what they signal about the broader sector. How should firms be rethinking their strategy and priorities? And what does this mean for tech workers? To offer some insights, we’re joined by Anthony Mouchantaf, director of venture capital at RBCx. Anthony, welcome to the ten minute take. Speaker 2 [00:01:24] Thanks for having me, Theresa. Speaker 1 [00:01:25] So let’s just start with what’s happening with the market downturn right now for those who may not be following closely. If we rewind to 2020, the sector saw widespread layoffs as a result of the pandemic, and then it saw to crazy highs and valuations. And now the broader market sell off driven layoffs and hiring freezes are making headlines again. So tell us what’s going on and which pockets of the sector the problems are most acute? Speaker 2 [00:01:49] Essentially what’s happened at a very high level is that the macroeconomic environment has shifted decidedly from one that was historically catalytic for tech firms and venture capital to one that is now historically stifling. The underlying reason for that is that central bankers around the world essentially overcorrected for the pandemic. They saw an unprecedented global event. They saw widespread lockdowns. And they look to counter some of the economic pressures that would emanate from that. But in so doing, they overindexed on quantitative easing. Essentially what they did is they lowered interest rates and they purchased government bonds and in some cases, provincial, municipal, even corporate bonds on the open market. That drove down yields on government securities and it frankly perverted the incentives and private asset markets. They pushed investors towards equities and they pushed investors towards alternatives. And one of the primary beneficiaries of that were tech firms and venture capital funds. What’s now happened is that the market is equilibrium. If that’s what worked and is now entering a phase of countering some of the excesses of the preceding call it 18 to 24 months. So interest rates are coming back up and we’re likely to enter a period of quantitative tightening wherein the central bank will sell government bonds back on the open market. That’s going to introduce a lot of pressure on tech firms, and it’s going to produce a lot of pressure on VC funds. Valuations are going to come down. It’s going to be a more difficult fundraising environment for venture capitalists, and that’s going to percolate down to the startups. And so what you’re seeing with these tech layoffs is essentially an attempted, proactive or prophylactic response to these macro conditions. Tech firms understand that their valuations are likely to be dampened significantly and that they’re going to have a difficult time fundraising. So for these cash burning startups, they’re trying to preempt that, reduce their headcount, reduce their burn, and get to a better place where they can maintain cash and come out on the other side of this in one piece, so to speak. Speaker 1 [00:03:48] You mentioned the proactive move or prophylactic move. Are you seeing this play out in certain subsectors or industries or functions? Speaker 2 [00:03:57] We are. So we’re seeing that most potently in firms that have somewhat esoteric business models. So business models that aren’t necessarily recurring revenue source, that aren’t necessarily high margin and that aren’t necessarily capital efficient. And the reason there is that those firms understand that they’ll be disproportionately impacted by any recessionary pressures. And generally what happens in these environments is you have a flight to quality. So there’s going to be capital still looking for a home and capital that will be invested in fundamentally strong companies. And there’s record amounts of dry powder in the industry right now because there’s a long tail to venture capital fundraising. So a lot of the benefits that accrued to the ecosystem over the preceding 18 months are still there. So I would expect to see those businesses with those unusual business models over indexing on layoffs. And I would actually expect to see companies with unusually strong fundamentals. So high recurring revenue, high growth, high margin capital efficiency actually growing their teams and taking advantage of the. Influx of talent on the market right now. Speaker 1 [00:05:01] So we were both at the collision conference in Toronto, and despite the flash and excitement of the event, you could sense the uncertainty hovering over the space and in conversations with attendees. It’s a bit of a scary time. People are worried about their jobs and their companies. And the point you mentioned about labor. What would you say to tech workers right now, those who may have just gotten laid off and those who are worried they might be next? Speaker 2 [00:05:24] It’s a very difficult situation. Of course, if you’ve been laid off or you’re concerned about layoffs, the first thing I would say is that if you are currently in a role in a early stage startup, it’s very important to take off your employee to some extent and put on your operator entrepreneur hat, because as an employee in an early stage company, you’re also an entrepreneur and you also have a stake in the business. So I think employees across the tech ecosystem should do their homework and understand the fundamentals around the companies that they work for. Are they high growth businesses? Are they high margin? Are they capital efficient because that will determine the optimal mix of compensation. It will determine whether they should index towards stock options, whether they should index towards compensation, cash comp. There’s a lot of thinking that’s now going to go into this because there is a lot of variability in terms of the value of those stock options. So just thinking around compensation is is very important. I think more broadly, if you have been laid off or you’re concerned about being laid off, you happen to be in a very collaborative and relatively insular industry. Everyone talks to each other. All the VC’s know each other, all the companies know each other, and CEOs and investors are really doing their utmost to make sure that insofar as possible, folks who are exiting jobs for reasons completely out of their control have soft landings. So network with your peers at other companies, leverage human resources within your previous company or your existing company. And you will find very strong support network and folks who will be very proactive in helping you find your next gig. Speaker 1 [00:07:02] That’s great advice. And I have seen the outpouring of support and empathy from the community, and that’s that’s really encouraging. What do you think these layoffs and hiring disruptions are doing? How are they affecting the talent pipeline for our overall tech ecosystem? Speaker 2 [00:07:17] That one’s a difficult one to surmise. I think, you know, the overarching macroeconomic pressures are generally border agnostic. I think you’re seeing the same trends play out in the US, Canada, UK and Europe more broadly. Certainly the supply and demand of talent is likely to shift or appears to be shifting. There’s a excess supply of tech talent in the Canadian ecosystem. The demand side of that equation is not entirely clear. So I alluded to this earlier where I think some subset of companies are likely to effect layoffs and other subset of companies are likely to take advantage of the situation and add headcount and look to expand their teams. It’s not entirely clear where that balances out. So the optimistic view or the cautiously optimistic view is that we can continue on with a somewhat steady state with an effective recalibration of the talent pool. The pessimistic view, which we all hope doesn’t come to pass, is that you see somewhat downward pressure on wages and a more difficult job market for some employees. I think that latter scenario, though, is quite unlikely. I think we’re more likely to see just a reallocation of human resources across the ecosystem. Speaker 1 [00:08:29] Every dark cloud has a silver lining. And many of my conversations with Canadian executives and entrepreneurs over the last year have been about how difficult it was to find talent. And yet just this past week, some that I spoke with have said that may not necessarily be the case any longer, as you alluded to. What do you see here are the opportunities that we should be keeping in mind? And how can Canadian companies capitalize on this moment, especially in terms of possibly attracting talent away from the U.S.? Speaker 2 [00:08:56] By and large, I think this is a moment for fundamentally strong Canadian businesses to capitalize on an environment that’s actually quite significantly in their favor. So you do have an excess of talent, amazing talent across the ecosystem looking for new roles. I think there’s a question of how risk averse or how proactive some companies want to be in their hiring. My view is, if again, if you’re a high growth recurring revenue business with high margin, you will be relatively unaffected by this recession, I strongly believe. And so if you fall in that bucket, this is a time to be hyper aggressive and to build out a very strong team that can scale with the company well past. You know, whether you’re a series, a potentially hire for your B and C, take advantage of the situation because the valuation pressures and the fundraising pressures won’t be evenly distributed across all companies. Very important to figure out which bucket you fall in and your likelihood of impact from these. These recessionary pressures and the macroeconomic environment. Speaker 1 [00:10:01] Anthony, thank you so much for these thoughtful insights and practical advice. Appreciate you taking the time to be on disruptors today. Speaker 2 [00:10:07] Thanks so much for having me, Teresa. That that’s great. Speaker 1 [00:10:11] As we heard from Anthony, it’s a challenging time for the tech sector as a whole right now, and there’s likely more impacts coming. But there are opportunities and lessons always for those savvy and lucky enough to find them. After all, this isn’t the first downturn we’ve witnessed, and it won’t be the last. That’s it for this week’s ten minute tech. Join us again next week for the reboot of our conversation with Hussein Faisal of Snap Commerce. Until then, I’m Theresa Doe. Talk to you soon. Speaker 3 [00:10:39] Disruptors, The ten minute take is created by the RBC Thought Leadership Group and does not constitute a recommendation for any organization, product or service. It’s produced and recorded by Jar Audio. For more disruptors content, like or subscribe wherever you get your podcasts and visit RBC dot com slash disruptors.

92 to Zero is the latest report in RBC Economics and Thought Leadership’s climate series, building from the team’s flagship report, The $2 Trillion Transition.For decades, RBC has engaged with Indigenous communities and we continue to work with them on our journey toward progress and reconciliation. The Royal Commission on Aboriginal Peoples was a clarion call that led to The Cost of Doing Nothing and subsequent work, including A Chosen Journey. Through our Climate Blueprint we are committed to sustainability and accelerating the transition to Net Zero. In these initiatives, we are listening and learning and using our platform to amplify Indigenous voices.

It’s now clear that the national priorities of Net Zero and reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples are inextricably linked. In the same spirit, we expect RBC’s reconciliation journey will increasingly intersect with our climate priorities.

92 to Zero highlights the incredible value that Indigenous capital, knowledge and decision-making can bring to a Net Zero transition. We’ve recently launched a national initiative of “listening circles” led by former Assembly of First Nations national chief Phil Fontaine that this report will help inform and inspire—and lead to more from us in the years ahead.

Now, each of us must act to break down the ongoing systematic barriers that prevent the full realization of Indigenous capital, supporting reconciliation and climate action. We hope this report will propel us further down that path.

We acknowledge that RBC resides on the traditional and contemporary treaty, and unceded territories of Turtle Island (North America) that are home to many First Nations, Inuit, and Métis peoples.

Key Findings

  • Canada’s road to Net Zero will rely heavily on vital sources of capital held by Indigenous nations. RBC estimates Canada needs roughly $2 trillion in capital over the next 25 years, much of it from Indigenous sources—or unlocked by Indigenous partnerships, including ownership.
  • An Indigenous-led approach to the climate transition, and economic opportunities toward Net Zero, will be essential to economic reconciliation.
  • Specifically, to achieve Net Zero and economic reconciliation, Canada needs to leverage four forms of Indigenous capital:

Natural Capital: Indigenous lands hold vast resources essential to green energy systems, and will be essential to the clean tech revolution. At least 56% of advanced critical mineral projects, 35% of top solar sites and 44% of the better wind sites involve Indigenous territory.

Financial Capital: The growing wealth of Indigenous communities includes an estimated $20 billion in trust assets and up to $100 billion in outstanding land and other claims. This capital will be critical to “crowding in” billions of dollars in private and public clean energy investment for Net Zero initiatives.

Intellectual Capital: Incorporating Indigenous values and traditional knowledge in the transition will lead to more sustainable and profitable outcomes. It can establish Canada as a leader in regenerative techniques, the preservation of biodiversity, and nature based carbon solutions—a powerful advantage as Canada competes with other countries for capital to finance the energy investment.

Human Capital: Emerging young Indigenous leaders and entrepreneurs will be critical generators of the innovative thinking needed to fuel the green transition. And as the fastest growing youth cohort, Indigenous Canadians can help power a Net Zero workforce that will include valuable jobs in skilled trades, advanced technology, business ventures and more.

What is 92?

To redress the legacy of residential schools and advance the process of Canadian reconciliation, the 2015 Truth and Reconciliation Commission issued 94 calls to action. The 92nd dealt specifically with business and reconciliation.

We acknowledge that RBC resides on the traditional and contemporary treaty, and unceded territories of Turtle Island (North America) that are home to many First Nations, Inuit, and Métis peoples.

Indigenous communities can unlock green economic growth

For many Indigenous Peoples in Canada, braiding is a sacred act. It brings together seemingly disparate sinews, with the goal of building a stronger, more unified whole. Strands of hair, breakable on their own, become more resilient when braided together. Blades of sweet grass are woven and burned with sage, cedar, and tobacco, the ceremony strengthening the community, which in turn cares for the plant.

Similarly, to meet the generational challenge of climate change, Canada must weave together the critical strands of Indigenous capital to secure a durable Net Zero strategy.

This new approach is about much more than money. It includes natural capital—vast portions of critical mineral, solar and wind developments depend on access to Indigenous lands—along with growing Indigenous wealth (financial capital), traditional Indigenous knowledge (intellectual capital) and powerful Indigenous entrepreneurship and talent (human capital). Each is required to strengthen the whole.

To unleash this capital, Canada will need new tools for clean energy development. That means establishing stronger corporate commitments and incentives for Indigenous partnership, greater sharing of project benefits, and financeable models of Indigenous equity participation. It means developing investment criteria that incorporates Indigenous perspectives and more intentional development of Indigenous entrepreneurs and youth leadership.

Above all else, it means establishing a new approach to partnership, one that reinforces the role of Indigenous rights, leadership, decision-making and consent.

These concrete actions will pull growing sources of Indigenous capital toward Net Zero. They’ll also mobilize critical private capital, by building a foundation of predictable development, better environmental outcomes, and expansive social impact.

Meaningful partnerships can’t be rushed. But the demands of the Net Zero transition are immediate—and there’s only one opportunity to get it right.

The onus now is on everyone to move forward together.


Natural Capital: The path to Net Zero winds through Indigenous land


Canada comes to the global climate challenge with a unique set of advantages. Its landscape includes vast quantities of both conventional and renewable energy resources—assets that, while enviable, bring challenges. Even as the country continues to rely on oil and gas, and works to more sustainably produce it, it’ll need to begin harnessing the resources to power the clean economy of the future.

And these resources are attached largely to Indigenous lands. RBC research shows at least 56% of advanced critical minerals projects involve Indigenous territory. Top opportunities for renewables development also overlap with Indigenous lands, including at least 35% of top solar sites and 44% of better wind sites. And Indigenous rights exist over many other territories that will require engagement.

To include these assets in its Net Zero strategy, Canada will need a new model for Indigenous partnerships—one that begins with meaningful engagement and consent.

Indigenous land contains key resources

  • At least 56% of the $60 billion in new critical mineral advanced projects involve Indigenous lands, including 26% within 20 kilometres of Indigenous reserves, settlement lands, and other title-like areas, and another 30% on unceded territories where Indigenous rights are asserted.
  • At least 35% of the top sites for the required $30 billion in solar development are near title-like lands.
  • And at least 44% of the better sites for the needed $135 billion in wind development are near title-like lands.

Indigenous communities have ‘a say’, but not decision-making power

Greater legal and political recognition of land rights has empowered Indigenous voices at the negotiating table for development projects, particularly in unceded and modern treaty territories.

These advancements follow decades of government policy that removed Indigenous Peoples from decision-making and deprived them of long-held land and treaty rights. This created a cycle of underinvestment, poverty, and trauma that persists in many communities today.

How Indigenous Peoples were isolated from decision-making

Early cooperation between distinct and sovereign settler and Indigenous groups created mutually beneficial trade and strategic military alliances that aided European survival on the land. But over time, official government policies of land dispossession, paternalistic suppression, and cultural assimilation took hold. The government never fully honoured original agreements and it removed Indigenous Peoples from the decision-making table.

It’s now clear that the national priorities of Net Zero and reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples are inextricably linked. In the same spirit, we expect RBC’s reconciliation journey will increasingly intersect with our climate priorities.

92 to Zero highlights the incredible value that Indigenous capital, knowledge and decision-making can bring to a Net Zero transition. We’ve recently launched a national initiative of “listening circles” led by former Assembly of First Nations national chief Phil Fontaine that this report will help inform and inspire—and lead to more from us in the years ahead.

Now, each of us must act to break down the ongoing systematic barriers that prevent the full realization of Indigenous capital, supporting reconciliation and climate action. We hope this report will propel us further down that path.

We acknowledge that RBC resides on the traditional and contemporary treaty, and unceded territories of Turtle Island (North America) that are home to many First Nations, Inuit, and Métis peoples.

 

As Indigenous communities regain rights and sovereignty, business methods are inching closer to the true spirit of initial cooperative agreements between Indigenous and settler societies, or

Treaties, that guided the sharing of land and living together in parallel.

But conflicts continue to erupt, including public demonstrations against development companies. While the courts have signaled a growing willingness to set precedent for consultation, they’ve also established that Indigenous rights are not absolute.

Government often navigates difficult decisions in the overall national interest. But this maxim has led to problematic policy and flawed corporate approaches to Indigenous engagement. Too often, Indigenous Peoples have been given only checkbox approval on planned projects that don’t respect their community values, governance, timelines, or consensus-building processes.

Resulting clashes have led to cancelled projects, runaway costs and timelines, and rushed planning phases that fail to leverage extensive Indigenous knowledge of land stewardship.

An oppositional approach is one way to pursue energy development. But it’s not the optimal one. Resulting court challenges, broken social trust, delays, and investment uncertainty pose a sizeable threat to Canada’s climate ambitions.

Striking true partnership

Some Indigenous leaders have told Canada’s business community they’re thinking about this in the wrong way. Rather than represent a project risk, Indigenous Peoples could bring something unique to the table. They can potentially improve certainty and returns, offer deep location-specific knowledge and better environmental and social outcomes. And as the rights of Indigenous

Peoples continue to draw international attention, their reintegration into clean energy development could emerge as a competitive strength.

“I think a lot of proponents are going to have to shift their mindset from thinking of Indigenous people as a risk to a possible source of capital and an enhancement to their project.”

Mark Podlasly
Director Economic Policy
First Nations Major Projects Coalition

To realize it, Indigenous communities must be engaged as true partners. That means including their voices, values, knowledge and decision-making from the earliest stages of a project. Sufficient time needs to be allotted for this process, similar to the months or years afforded for Western development work.

Meaningful engagement and consent is an ongoing exercise of building trust, sharing information, and acting to realign the terms of the partnership based on evolving priorities. It also includes the possibility of saying no—some projects will not align with community values, and they may have to be rerouted or in some cases abandoned.

The power of Indigenous equity

Indigenous equity ownership of new energy projects is rising. Equity improves the risk profile of projects, both through ongoing information sharing and the ability of both parties to shape their direction.

Equity participation can build intergenerational wealth and guide land stewardship. This aligns with the long-term sustainable world view of many nations and in particular, the Haudenosaunee (Iroquois) Seventh Generation Principle, where decisions are partly determined by the impact they’ll have on the next seven generations.

By contrast, near-term commitments in many of today’s impact benefit agreements (around Indigenous procurement, employment, community investment or royalties) are increasingly out of sync with the priorities of Indigenous communities, especially in light of the valuable sources of capital they control.

Equity is not a universal solution. Some communities may not have the risk appetite or expertise to manage equity investment. Infrastructure development is complicated and risky, and project finance lenders may be wary of significant partners that lack major construction or operational experience. Certain projects that focus on transition fuels or non-dominant abatement technologies—like oil, natural gas, or carbon capture, utilization, and storage—could carry long-term risks.

And equity isn’t always an option for the Indigenous communities that want it. Even communities that have revenue-generating activities may find a portion of the equity contribution is unfinanceable by private lenders. For communities that lack any revenue-generating activities, the equity option is even further out of reach. Project proponents, financial institutions, and governments need to eliminate this equity financing gap. Greater capacity building and advisory services are then needed to support communities in making informed choices between different partnership arrangements, and negotiating the best terms.

“Our nation is not new to industrial development […] essentially we’ve sat on the sidelines and witnessed the destruction of our territory, our environment, and our cultural resources to being active partners within a process where we had a seat at the table.”

Chief Crystal Smith
Haisla First Nations Chair
First Nations LNG Alliance


Financial Capital: Indigenous leadership will help fuel the $2 trillion transition


Large Canadian firms with $8 trillion in global assets have committed to Net Zero, yet annual spending on green projects is still far short of the $80 billion per year required. Indigenous financial wealth isn’t at the scale needed to lead financing of the $2 trillion Net Zero transition. But with more than $20 billion in trust assets and up to $100 billion in outstanding land and other claims, it can nevertheless make a significant impact.

The bigger opportunity rests in the power of Indigenous financial capital and consent to crowd in the larger private funding needed for Net Zero—by derisking projects, boosting returns, improving environmental outcomes, and increasing social acceptance. Mobilizing investors to support Indigenous-aligned responsible investment will accelerate this process while also enhancing economic reconciliation.

Indigenous assets cycle back into communities

Greater recognition and application of Indigenous land rights have added to the financial wealth of Indigenous communities. These additions stem partly from land claim settlements or compensation for past violations of treaty or other rights. With over 250 specific claims awaiting negotiation and over 160 currently under review, as well as ongoing litigation and land claims, further increases in these assets can be anticipated.

Distinct from individual wealth, these assets are for the benefit of the community, supporting spending on physical, social or cultural infrastructure, economic development, or disbursements to members. They are increasingly being used to decarbonize local communities, including Net Zero projects in the built environment, renewable energy developments or transmission lines that bring cleaner electricity to diesel-reliant remote communities, or equity stakes in sustainable projects such as transition fuel facilities or wind and solar farms.

The Senákw project on Squamish Nation reserve land in Vancouver—a 12-tower, mixed-use development—is the largest First Nations economic development project in Canadian history and Canada’s first large-scale net zero housing development . To be developed in partnership with a private developer, the Nation is contributing the land. Costing $3 billion to construct, it could generate $8-12 billion in revenue for the Nation over the leasehold life

While growing, Indigenous financial assets remain undersized, a result of the historic non-recognition of Indigenous rights and suppression of the Indigenous economy. There’s also significant variation in the financial wealth held by communities based on treaty status (unceded, modern, or historic), location (urban or remote) and proximity to major resource projects. For example, the Squamish, Musqueam, and Tsleil-Waututh nations have major developments on their traditional unceded territories around and within modern day Vancouver. By contrast, a limited sample of 500 First Nations from 2015 to 2016 showed 50% had revenues below $3 million, whereas the top nation earned almost $100 million.

Formally recognizing the value of Indigenous partnership

Indigenous leaders can provide the greatest long-term certainty around infrastructure development. And Western developers and scientists are starting to recognize the value of Indigenous knowledge in project design.

Governments and leading project sponsors need to financially recognize the value Indigenous partners bring to the table. Fair compensation will lead to a growing Indigenous financial asset base that can be invested back into community wellbeing and position nations for Net Zero investment. That means finding new valuation models that go beyond lands leased or rights-of-way. Right now, communities that seek an equity share after the risky construction phase often purchase a stake in a more valuable project—but at a higher cost. This is despite their active participation in helping to de-risk it from the beginning. In terms of traditional knowledge, communities are often reimbursed for their time or monetary outlays, but not necessarily for their intellectual property as ‘consultants on the land’. Appropriately classifying these features as accretive to project returns may lead to their monetization, helping to close the Indigenous financial asset and equity financing gap.

Indigenous-aligned responsible investment

Successful Indigenous communities are investing in financial products consistent with their cultural values and using activist strategies to push companies to do better. They’re scaling their impact and building capacity through partnerships with like-minded investors. The National Aboriginal Trust Officers Association (NATOA), a resource and training organization, and Share, a responsible investment organization, have created the Reconciliation and Responsible Investment Initiative. It seeks to mobilize Canadian investors to “… use their voices and their capital to promote positive economic outcomes for Indigenous peoples including through employment, support for Indigenous entrepreneurs, increased partnerships with Indigenous communities and respect for Indigenous rights and title”10.

There’s a growing understanding that Indigenous entrepreneurs and communities could be a valuable focus for impact investing approaches. Also, that Indigenous factors, like Indigenous project co-development or Indigenous say in corporate governance, may be important to the overall performance of companies and projects. But while intentions are on the rise, the tools and regulatory framework to mobilize finance remain in the early stages.

  • The ESG standards increasingly being deployed across capital markets have largely omitted Indigenous priorities and perspectives, and were developed without Indigenous input.
  • Too often, Indigenous issues are considered an “S” factor in ESG modelling, which overlooks the singular legal foundations of Indigenous participation, as well as the unique environmental nature of Indigenous-led or -guided development.
  • The $1.3 trillion dedicated sustainable equity fund market has no funds with an explicit focus on Indigenous issues.
  • Investor demand has been insufficient to establish investment products aligned with Indigenous priorities.
  • Concrete business commitments to Indigenous issues are not significant enough—or disclosed and verifiable—to build diversified products.

As the investment environment changes, corporate and investor inaction on climate and Indigenous priorities becomes increasingly salient to the bottom line.

“Investors are going to need to see this as not as some sort of forecasted or predicted risk. They’re actually going to need to see climate change as having material impact on assets that they own..”

Joseph Bastien
Share
Reconciliation and Responsible Investment Initiative


Intellectual Capital: The power of Indigenous land stewardship and knowledge


Indigenous capital is more than natural and financial capital. Recognition of the value of Indigenous voices and knowledge can be a powerful driver of both economic reconciliation—and growth.

Generations of traditional Indigenous knowledge have shaped an approach to land management that ensures the long-term sustainability of ecosystems. Each community specializes in preserving the delicate interrelationships between people, plants, and animals in its traditional territory. This approach is holistic, anchored in the interconnectedness of the environment, well-being and culture. It’s about the principle of reciprocity and sustainability. It is not rigid, but evolving.

As Canada seeks to build a prosperous economy while also minimizing environmental damage, preserving biodiversity, and developing nature-based carbon sinks for climate management, Indigenous knowledge and ways of knowing will become critical competitive advantages.

Leveraging these assets can also extend economic opportunities to Indigenous Peoples that haven’t traditionally benefitted from land rights.

But it’ll mean embracing a different world view.

Two-eyed seeing leads to better outcomes

Etuaptmumk, or two-eyed seeing, is a Mi’kmaq principle that calls for seeing from one eye with the strength of Indigenous stewardship, knowledge, and ways of knowing, and from the other with the strength of Western tools and systems. Bringing both perspectives together can create thoughtful, and more profitable Net Zero solutions.

Uniting place-based Indigenous knowledge with Western scientific methods improves the outcomes of environmental studies for development projects. By itself, the traditional scientific approach may only offer a narrow window into the local environment and require advanced extrapolation—for instance, on the baseline migratory patterns of fish or how to restore a reclaimed project site to its original ecosystem from decades ago. Indigenous knowledge, acquired over centuries of climatic variation, can augment or contextualize this information, producing more robust conclusions. Similarly, Western methods can complement traditional knowledge. For example, tracking devices on at-risk local species can expand information on and understanding of their movements.

“[Mi’kmaq Ecological Knowledge] is a cumulative body of knowledge that is passed on from generation to generation, Elder to child and is dynamic. MEK draws upon the ever changing natural world—as ecological knowledge changes over time, and new experiences bring forward new understandings regarding the Earth’s ecology, the Mi’kmaq will continue to learn, grow and share, just as they have done for over ten thousand years.”

Mi’kmaq Ecological Knowledge Study Protocol
Assembly of Nova Scotia Mi’kmaq Chiefse

Federal laws now require incorporation of Indigenous knowledge in the environmental assessment process, with interim guidance saying that traditional knowledge should be viewed as providing a framework “as complementary and influential information alongside Western science”.

But Indigenous knowledge does not yet have an equal place in environmental studies. Whereas Western science is afforded months, or even years, to do its work, assessment processes now often only have a short timeline for Indigenous input near the end. Indigenous communities often do not have this information readily available as it must be collected from knowledge-holders in the community, and they may be reluctant to share if trust is not strong. Others may want to produce their own traditional knowledge-based studies.


Human Capital: A new generation of leaders is driving innovation


Stronger say over local project development, growing wealth, and recognition of the value of Indigenous knowledge is empowering a new generation of Indigenous Peoples and entrepreneurs. The Indigenous economy, estimated at over $30 billion per year in 2016, is outpacing growth in the overall national economy and is poised to grow to $100 billion by 2024.

Driving change is a growing group of young, educated Indigenous leaders. These leaders are advancing new models of economic reconciliation and development. Supported by stronger land rights and growing capital, they’re pursuing an Indigenous-led approach to sustainable economic development that connects investment and community prosperity. They’re building networks with other Indigenous leaders past and present and often acting through increasingly influential Indigenous-led business and advocacy organizations, such as the Canadian Council for Aboriginal Business, First Nations Major Projects Coalition (FNMPC), Indigenous Resource Council, or National Aboriginal Capital Corporations Association (NACCA).

Many are heads of major economic ventures and are building a new model for the upcoming generation, which still sees limited Indigenous representation in corporate Canada. In 2020, only 0.3% of corporate board seats were held by Indigenous persons, despite their 4.9% share of the population.

Corporate Canada is increasingly seeking Indigenous perspectives and representation. As it does, it will be important that it doesn’t hoard Indigenous talent, especially from remote communities. Corporations that have a clear social purpose and use innovative models to share Indigenous talent with their communities are more likely to be successful.

Local talent can be a competitive advantage

The Net Zero projects brought by Indigenous leaders to their communities will have a powerful pool of human capital to draw from. And many communities are interested in economic partnerships that include long-term employment benefits. This means higher-value Indigenous employment and skills development that outlives the project, and includes opportunities at all levels including planning, design, construction, management, and operations.

This is also in the interest of project sponsors. For one, it’s a sign of the true partnership Indigenous leaders will be looking for when selecting collaborators. Additionally, in a world of acute labour shortages and fragile, cost-pushing global supply chains, a network of trusted local employees and suppliers delivers value. Building these networks takes time. But Canada’s energy system transition will be an intergenerational project.

The Net Zero transition can benefit from an Indigenous workforce that’s younger than for Canada as a whole. Indigenous youth are the fastest-growing population cohort, with their numbers expanding four times quicker than the non-Indigenous population. Indigenous people are increasingly pursuing postsecondary qualification, especially women, 52% of whom had a postsecondary qualification in 2016. Indigenous youth value their languages, identity and culture, and are confident in their foundational skills—including critical thinking, communication, or collaboration, which are all central to the future of work. The already strong employment of Indigenous people in Canada’s resource economy and skilled trades occupations, and greater proximity to remote areas, means an easier transition to the skills needed for green infrastructure and clean energy.

Meanwhile, Indigenous entrepreneurs are developing new businesses at nine times the Canadian average with 50,000 Indigenous-owned businesses across diverse Canadian sectors. Many of these businesses are promoting Indigenous values and knowledge, from Cheekbone Beauty—founded by Jenn Harper, an Anishinaabe woman whose line of high quality sustainable cosmetics is giving back to the community—to the SIKU mobile app, an Inuit-led social network to help hunters share real-time knowledge of ice conditions and animal behaviour.

Moving forward with reconciliation also means not hiding from the past or the impact that endures in so many Indigenous communities. All Canadians, including Canadian business, have a greater role to play in reconciliation, including supporting new approaches to education and pathways to employment, as we explored in our 2021 report, Building Bandwidth. Whether it’s apprenticeship and co-op opportunities for Indigenous students or capital for young entrepreneurs, a skills-centric approach to the climate transition will be critical.

“I think about the advancements [that Indigenous groups have] and it’s a small group thinking outside the box, thinking about innovation. What we need to figure out and address is how to bring everyone with us and continue to strengthen capacity in our communities.”

Chief David Jimmie
CEO at Squiala First Nation,
President Stó:lō Nation Chiefs Council

Capacity planning and supports are needed. Indigenous-led organizations are providing some of that—in addition to NATOA, First Nations Major Projects Coalition (FNMPC) and others, AFOA Canada provides capacity development in Indigenous management, finance, and governance. The Indigenous Leadership Development Institute Inc. (ILDII) builds leadership capacity in Indigenous people with specific training. But greater access and new partnerships will be critical.

More financial innovations are helping address the longstanding capital gaps between Indigenous communities and the rest of the country. It would take about $83 billion in capital to close the financing gap based on 2013 estimates. But Indigenous entrepreneurs still face barriers that other Canadian entrepreneurs don’t. Limits from the Indian Act and government underinvestment in assets continues to constrain the use of homes or other sources of collateral for conventional lending.

Innovative approaches can often work around this, but the complexity can scare off some lenders, or cause significant risk aversion in Indigenous lending. And with the need to access multiple government, Indigenous organizations, and private programs to obtain financing, application processes and timelines can be complex and time consuming.


A Way Forward


In her book, Braiding Sweetgrass, Robin Wall Kimmerer describes the propagation of sweet grass as growing not from the wind or animals but by underground root systems called rhizomes. Having long survived unseen, the Indigenous community is now emerging with strength and taking hold of prosperity grounded in recognition of the essential strands that nourished it: natural, human, financial, and intellectual capital.

To get to Net Zero, Canada will need to bring this Indigenous capital together with non-Indigenous capital through positive intent and deliberate action. If this is done right, it can promote reconciliation and a prosperous Net Zero future for everyone.

Here are some key questions Canadians need to address:

  • What are the steps of engagement that project proponents must develop with Indigenous communities to achieve and maintain consent for development, given evolving definitions of consent and community-specific priorities?
  • How can Indigenous communities proactively communicate their internal governance structures, preferred engagement processes, and general posture or conditions for clean energy and infrastructure development?
  • How can better equity participation models be developed to encompass the wide range of assets, ambitions and priorities across Indigenous communities?
  • How can non-Indigenous and Indigenous-led financial institutions and governments fill gaps in the project financing needed to ensure meaningful Indigenous ownership?
  • How can international ESG standards and metrics be adapted to incorporate Indigenous perspectives and Canada-specific context, including legal rights framework?
  • What are the best practices for meaningfully hearing and integrating Indigenous knowledge and perspectives in project decision-making processes as well as broader economic development strategies?
  • How can Indigenous communities be supported in projecting the labour supply, skills, or supplier network needed to actively participate in economic development opportunities?

For more, go to rbc.com/climate.

Download the Report

Download

Contributors:

  • John Stackhouse, Senior Vice President
  • Cynthia Leach, Assistant Chief Economist
  • Alanna La Rose, Manager, Strategic Partnerships
  • Colin Guldimann, Economist
  • Darren Chow, Senior Manager, Digital Design
  • Naomi Powell, Managing Editor, Economics and Thought Leadership
In this edition of Disruptors: The 10-Minute Take, co-host Trinh Theresa Do explores why Canada’s housing market has suddenly cooled after a heated two-year pandemic-driven rise. She’s joined by Robert Hogue, Assistant Chief Economist at RBC Economics, who shares insights and predictions on what’s to come, for both buyers and sellers. EPISODE NOTES: To read Robert’s latest housing report, “Canada’s housing market taps on the brakes as interest rates rise,” click here.
Speaker 1 [00:00:03] Hey, it’s Theresa. Welcome to Disruptors. The 10 minutes where we dive into the latest innovation, tech and economic buzz. For this week’s take, we’re talking about Canada’s housing market, which is starting to cool down after a two year pandemic driven surge. The recent Canadian Real Estate Association, or CREA report showed that tides may be shifting in buyers’ favour. So what should aspiring first time homeowners like myself know if they’re looking to break into the market? And what should sellers be aware of in this changing landscape? To help us better understand how the chaos of the last two years is settling and what’s likely to come, as Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist at RBC Economics, he’s just released his latest monthly report, “Canada’s housing market taps on the brakes as interest rates rise”. Robert, Welcome to the 10 Minute-Take! Speaker 2 [00:00:56] Hello, Theresa. Speaker 1 [00:00:57] After the frenzied last couple of years, we’re seeing rising interest rates, predictably finally cooling demand for housing. And I’m seeing the phrase buyer’s market being bandied about across so many different headlines and news outlets. But you’ve been a keen observer of the housing landscape for years now. How would you actually describe what’s going on, especially compared to last year and before the pandemic? What’s the full picture here? Speaker 2 [00:01:23] Right. We’re starting from a well, from a starting point where the market was in a frenzy. I mean, the last since the summer of 2020, we’ve seen record months after record months in terms of home resale activity. So the starting point is extremely strong now. Should we be talking about a buyer’s market? I think it’s a little premature at this point. Will it become a buyer’s market? It could well be now. That being said, if the market were to become a buyer’s market, would that mean that buyers are finally like yourself? We’ll see great opportunities out there. The thing to keep in mind is that now we are, as you pointed out, at a time when interest rates are rising, mortgage rates are rising, especially that variable rates now are rising, which means from a buyer perspective, prices may kind of stabilize, maybe decline in some markets to a certain degree, but is going to get tougher because borrowing costs are moving up. Now, whether a buyer’s market will represent relief at last for a generation of buyers now, I’m not so sure. But one thing is getting clearer and clearer, though, is that those spiking prices that we’ve seen, especially over the last 12 months, are on the way to stabilizing in most of Canada. And in fact, and as you pointed out, the latest crop of numbers for the month of April is that we’re starting to see some some declines on a month over month basis, and the odds are they’re likely to decline a little bit more. So I think in a way, no, we’re leaving this frenzied market to a new phase of this cycle, which hopefully will bring a little bit kind of a cooler set of conditions, kind of a less of a fear of missing out, hopefully, so that the market will calm a little bit calmer. But don’t expect affordability suddenly to be right in front of us. I think the affordability will continue to be a major challenge. Speaker 1 [00:03:20] Right. And I mean, affordability was also a driving factor for many of my friends and peers deciding to move to sleepier markets during the pandemic. Nova Scotia. New Brunswick, Alberta. It’s the exodus out of the big cities that are busy economics as covered in depth. So with that in mind, as you look across the country, where are you seeing the most interesting trends or conditions and what’s surprising? Speaker 2 [00:03:42] You move, right? Right, right. And it’s an excellent point when we’re looking at the numbers for April, for example, you know, we saw Halifax, for example, still seeing huge price increases in a month and four month basis. There’s still tremendous pressure on that market. And and a big part of of that story is exactly what you described. You’ve got some very hot market over the past year where buyers were being priced out. And with the pandemic and no work from home opening new frontiers, we saw some significant movement towards other markets snowy exurbs of, of and Toronto or even cottage country. But we saw also a significant movement towards the Atlantic region where the locals are being a little put off because they’re seeing this this wave of Ontarians coming through with the larger budgets. But that that phenomenon is still ongoing as we speak, along. Speaker 1 [00:04:33] With interest rates leading to changing conditions. And I know that you mentioned that affordability still remains a challenge. It reminds me of an interesting term I came across in the latest courier report, buyer fatigue. And it’s not something that I’ve heard often. So can you explain to us what that means and how we’re seeing it play out? Speaker 2 [00:04:49] Now, we’ve been talking a lot about the lack of supply out there, but there was a lack of supply largely because demand was so incredibly strong over the last. Almost two years now. And a big part of that that I just mentioned a minute ago, the fear of missing out. But that that that has driven a lot of activity. A lot of people kind of precipitated that their decisions to lock in lower rates or no to buy at a time before prices were now have gone to high so that they were no basic in buying being priced out of market. And so all of these have led the way to tons of bidding wars which were now very common in large markets like Toronto and Vancouver. But those bidding wars have spread out across the country, and many markets had never really never seen them before. And now this tremendous pressure and frustration on the part of many buyers has led to that and buyer fatigue. Now they’re just like, okay, they’re done with having to try to outbid the competition. And now with a higher mortgage rates, now it’s making them more discouraged about entering those bidding wars. And the odds are we’re probably going to see a few and fewer of them. And when where there are bidding wars are probably going to see fewer participants. So it’s all kind of part of this cooling on the demand side that has basically started this spring. Speaker 1 [00:06:11] Yeah, I totally understand that. My partner and I have been trying to break into the market for the last year and a half and every time we feel like we had our savings goal, the market just gets a little bit further out of reach. So we gave up and I think that fits the pattern with a lot of folks across Canada. So the federal budget came out just a little while ago and introducing a number of measures to improve affordability, including building more homes and ending blind bidding, among others. How do these policies stack up, particularly now as we’re seeing the effects of higher rates on demand? What does this all mean for buyers? Speaker 2 [00:06:46] Right. Right. And in our view, is then that individually those measures, I think we counted something like 29 measures of housing related measures in the federal budget, and some of them address the supply side. But a number of them were targeting or trying to help no matter the affordability on the for buyers. And the thing to keep in mind is now some of those measures that were proposed are not effective right now, like a savings account for first time homebuyers. Now the government is stuck in 2023 and it’s a sort of program that will probably have an impact over the longer term. So our view is that individually, they’re probably not likely to to move the needle that much in terms of of affordability or trying to cool the market down. But in aggregate, overall, it could make an impression on buyers. But that being said, the bigger factor in the market right now is higher interest rates, that those interest rates are rising not only fast but a lot, especially on the variable mortgage side. So in our view, this is the game changer that the policy changes and those programs and proposed measures will probably contribute to some extend maybe at the margin. But the big the big one is higher rates. And this is, in our view, that’s leading to the turning point that we’re experiencing now in the market. Speaker 1 [00:08:14] Hoping to turn over now to the other side of the transaction and looking at sellers. How are they faring right now and what do you think they should be thinking about? Speaker 2 [00:08:22] I think they have to accept and realize that the market is starting. There’s a lot of expectations on the part of certain buyers that they saw that the neighbors down the street selling their house for one point something million and they’re expecting by putting the market up for sale now that it would fetch the same price, whereas in most of the country that they’re not going to get bids for the prices that prevailed just a few months ago. So maybe the strategies has to be revised. We’re seeing more and more realtors advising their clients now, not don’t set things up for a bidding war. And that’s an asset that an asking price that’s a little bit higher. So I think that they have to be to accept the new realities, to be more flexible, also to realize that they may not sell their home in hours. It may take a little bit of time and, you know, just a bit of a dose of reality when you look back in the history of the housing market and you don’t have to go that far back in most markets, it took like weeks and weeks to sell a home and not days. So I think they’ll have to adjust to this new reality. Speaker 1 [00:09:21] And a new reality. It definitely is. Thank you for joining us today, Rebecca. I really appreciate your time. Speaker 2 [00:09:27] It’s been my pleasure. Speaker 1 [00:09:29] And that’s a wrap for this week’s ten minute take. I’m Teresa Do. Join us next time as we explore innovation and how businesses and governments may have been thinking about it all wrong. We’ll chat with a globally known expert who recently wrote a book on the subject, as well as a winner of this year’s Governor General Innovation Awards. Talk to you soon. Speaker 3 [00:09:52] Disruptors, The ten minute take is created by the RBC Thought Leadership Group and does not constitute a recommendation for any organization, product or service. It’s produced and recorded by JAR audio. For more disruptors content, like or subscribe wherever you get your podcasts and visit rbc dot com, slash disruptors.

In our post-pandemic world, there is no issue more pressing than climate change. This fall on Disruptors, an RBC podcast, we launched a multi-part series called The Climate Conversations, which explored some of the potential solutions to a warming planet—as well as the challenges in implementing them.

Arguably no part of the Canadian economy has more work to do on climate action—but also more opportunities to innovate—than Canada’s oil and gas sector. Co-host Trinh Theresa Do spoke with a key player in the sector: JP Gladu, a Suncor Energy board member and executive director of the Indigenous Resource Network.

In this special extended cut of the conversation, we hear more from Gladu on how oil and gas companies (such as Suncor) can prosper in a Net Zero world; why reconciliation and sustainable development go hand-in-hand; and the importance of a “just transition” for Canada’s First Nations.


Speaker 1 [00:00:01] Hey, it’s Theresa. This fall on disrupters, we explored some of the big topics on climate change and spoke with some of the big players taking climate action. We call the series the climate conversations, and it’s fair to say the conversations are ongoing. As part of that, we’re bringing you a special extended cuts of some of our most popular ones. Arguably, no sector has more work to do in meeting our ambitious climate targets than the oil and gas sector. It’s the biggest producer of greenhouse gas emissions in Canada, but also the sector where we’re starting to see a ton of innovation and an emerging, more inclusive model for doing business. One of those who’s helping build that new model is JP Gladu JP as a board member of Suncor Energy, which has committed itself to becoming a net zero emitter by 2050. He’s also a principal at marketing consultancy and a former CEO of the Canadian Council for Aboriginal Business. As he explained When we talked earlier this fall. Sustainable development is supremely important to First Nations and Canada and essential to the future of energy companies such as Suncor if they hope to reach net zero. JP, welcome to disruptors. Speaker 2 [00:01:15] Theresa, it’s really nice to be here, thank you. Speaker 1 [00:01:17] From 2012 to late last year, you served as president and CEO of the Canadian Council for Aboriginal Business, whose mission is to promote, strengthen and enhance a prosperous indigenous economy. When you look back, how did the KP address sustainable prosperity during your leadership Speaker 2 [00:01:37] that you’re hitting on some and wonderful memories? It was transformative, not, I like to think, and one a great theme that exists that that I was able to build and continues on under the leadership of Tabitha Bull, my successor. Incredible time. The organization and I think what I feel most proud about is the growth of its programs and its presence and research. You and I both know if you don’t have great data, it’s hard to change policy. It’s hard to change thinking. And we are actually I say, I say we again. But the cap is as a leader, a world leader in developing research and research by indigenous people for indigenous people to influence outcomes. The PA program, The Progressive Aboriginal Relations, is a program that is set to and it’s been in existence for a while now that supports non-Indigenous corporations for the most part in long term, sustainable relationships across sectors, to work with indigenous entrepreneurs and communities, and for them to get better at understanding the indigenous sphere and how to empower that economy through business relationships. The action that I was most proud of, the one where I felt I could have retired and felt that, you know, I did my part in society and then fell off into the sunset was the procurement work, the strategy work great team. I hired this young man from Australian Aboriginal guy named Josh Riley, who worked for us for a couple of years, and he said, You know what we did? You know, Canada’s really great as a world leader and indigenous economy in many, many regards, but is not doing as great when it comes to government procurement and what we did in Australia as we we matched up with indigenous leadership with a prominent corporate leader to challenge the governments and other corporations to do better on their procurement strategies because the government, particularly in many parts of Canada, were not doing their part in procuring indigenous entrepreneurs and businesses. So they they’ve done a great job. So they said, Well, let me call up Mark Little, who was the CEO at the time of Suncor, and his team said Yes, Mark is going to stand on the front of the room with the ajp and challenge corporations and the government to do to set targets around indigenous procurement. Because Tricia, you and I know you can do all the great things in the world, but if you can’t bring in cash, cash is in our mind trading. So cash is king, you need economy, you need economic parity to be a partner, to have a voice. So Mark and I, we went to the government, we went to Parliament. We hit up all of the ministers in the right places and we got a commitment from them to set a five percent target. And Tabitha Bulls, the new CEO. I guess she’s not so new anymore. She’s been there since March of 2020. Dropped me a text not too long ago. I was saying, we did it. We got it over. It’s legislated procurement is making shoot. That’s going to translate to billions of dollars because what it is, it’s a handshake. It’s an opportunity to build business together. And most importantly, I think the relationships that have struggled for over 150 years, that’s incredible. Speaker 1 [00:04:50] And those conversations about procurement, economic parity, were there any opportunities to incorporate sustainability environmental issues in those conversations? Speaker 2 [00:05:02] Absolutely. There were six. Abe was an is an organization that is very inclusive. We all know that the energy sector is is transforming, you know, to sit on the Ontario Power Generation Board. And, you know, we have hydro projects. Nuclear is clean energy and we had sustainable equity partnerships with or OPG. Sarah, I got the way I still feel like I’m still part of the conversation every day. Speaker 1 [00:05:28] You know, the lingo Speaker 2 [00:05:30] with communities that are helping transform the way that we generate our energy sector. I want to talk a little bit if it’s all right, Teresa, one of the my roles since then, I’m the chair of the Board of Leadership Champions, and that is a group of companies and indigenous leaders from oil, gas, mining, forestry, energy think I mentioned finance and it’s my good friend Valerie Courtois and Cathy Wilkinson and Meredith and Mark. We’re all trying to find a place, and we’re developing some thought leadership with all these companies around responsible development around Indigenous. US protected conservation, because we need those natural services to be able to live a stronger future one where we can be proud of to hand an environment to hand down to our kids. So we’re doing some thinking around innovative financing and what economic reconciliation looks like and to bring those ideas to the forefront. There’s a lot of organizations and communities that are putting a lot of time into finding this balance and be happy to have more conversations about this with you. Speaker 1 [00:06:38] Yeah, I’d love to follow up on that, actually. Can you describe that connection between indigenous led conservation and economic reconciliation and how that might also apply to energy production? Speaker 2 [00:06:48] Yeah, it’s another great question for a long time. We’ve been shut out of the Canadian economy. We had, you know, the fur trade which sustained our communities, and then we were told our communities were told that harvesting furs was not appropriate anymore. OK, well, we don’t want to live in poverty. We don’t want government handouts. So what’s next? Well, we’ll look to the mining of a lot of our communities are in the north, so we’ll look to the extraction sectors to generate revenue, to generate income, to generate an economy when we talk about economic reconciliation. It means that we’re generating wealth and we’re managing that wealth and we’re empowering our communities. We know that we can actually find a better balance between extraction and indigenous protected conservation areas and sustainable development and more trees, because our natural service ecosystems provide billions, trillions of dollars that we don’t even think about when it comes to clean air, clean water. You know, think of all the health impacts that occur if you don’t have a clean environment. But we also, as an indigenous community, are having these tough conversations around, well, we’re going to transition. It’s going to take time. There’s still so much poverty, not only in Canada but around the world, 700 million people in abject poverty because they don’t have access to energy. So oil and gas is going to be a part of our economy for years to come. That doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t be putting time and effort and resources and research into actually improving that technology. So there’s a balance to be struck, and that balance is going to be we’re not going to find that balance without the indigenous voice. We need to be at the table every step of the way from any kind of development to any kind of protected area and developing economies around those protected areas Speaker 1 [00:08:36] on more practical level. To what extent might there be concern among indigenous communities, especially those who partner with Big Oil and gas, big energy producers about developing these resources, which knowing that oil demand will not win for a while, eventually it will wane to some degree. So knowing that that long term demand will wane along with perhaps the value of these properties, what concerns are there around that? Speaker 2 [00:09:00] Well, I think the biggest concerns are, again, the question of balance, the balance of generating economies. So we’re not poor all the time in government handouts, but also making sure that we’ve got areas that we can rely on for our traditional activities in the clean water and the clean air. I mean, I just had my daughter visiting me up on my reserve the last five days of me or moose hunting and I’m on a lake. Let me let me paint this picture for you, and then I’m going to ask you as an example in Alberta with Fort McKay First Nation. I live on Lake Winnipeg and our whole lake is protected and it’s the biggest lake in Ontario surrounded by the Ontario borders. Beautiful. I hunt on it. I fish. I caught a beautiful speckled choke my fly rod. This weekend I released she is a female and she responded, But you know, we’re the guardians of the land and put us in that place so we can continue to protect her. But we also have a lithium mine site, just not because road access to our reserve. We have two hydro developments that we’re partners and we have a sawmill. We have old railway bed that goes to our community and we have the natural gas line that cuts across our community as well, that my grandfather, one of my grandfathers, helped build. We got all the resource activities there. And so we’re trying to find that balance to make sure that the land that needs to be protected is protected and that we are the ones that are also becoming the equity partners. And the decision makers in the way that resource projects get developed and that we also benefit from it. Now, if you look at maybe more pointed to your question about concerns for Mackay, First Nation is a prime example. You know, Chief Jim Boucher, chief of 30 plus years. He’s not the chief right now, but I will always call him. Chief is just an extraordinary leader. He talked about, you know, he was providing first, trapping first for his community. His community was doing that to subsistence living. And then over time, that went away and then they fought their oil and gas companies. And then they found their way to the table, the oil and gas companies, and then became this equity stakeholder in one of the biggest resource tank projects in history with Suncor, along with Mexico group of companies. But they also have Moose Lake, and I’ve been to Moose like a couple of times with my friends, Dave and Nicole, and it is I’ve been up a couple of stunning. And they drew a line, they said, no, no more encroachment of this lake. This is important to our community. No more development here. We will work with you in these areas that are appropriate. This area hands off and they won that and they led that conversation. So they got concerns. But they also have to provide for their for the young people. Speaker 1 [00:11:31] We had chatted with Marc Little from Suncor, as you know, of course, about Suncor’s work in partnership with Indigenous communities, and I think he had specifically cited the example of of Chief Boucher and the joint venture that they had established the First Nations there about basically providing stable prices to ensure that the volatility of oil doesn’t impact them. Do you see that as a model that can be scaled and replicated going into the future? And what other models might exist that would ensure over time that economic parity and reconciliation? Speaker 2 [00:12:04] That’s a great question. Now, I’m not surprised Mark talked about that. You know, the relationship that unmarked and Jim have, it was that of marriage. They would have their battles, but they’d always come back to the table and what’s best for our community and what’s best for the company, the end the economy and how are we going to balance this all out? And they got through it. And I think it’s an incredible model where the communities were able to hedge against the markets and have lower cost capital and have steady revenue to support their community while having an eye on on the development itself. I think it’s a wonderful model. The cutting edge opportunities in this country exist in a few areas. One is that our communities want to be equity stakeholders in a lot of the resource projects that look at TMCs. There are a number of indigenous groups that want to purchase that line. So we need to, as a country, find equity pools to develop, generate them so that communities can access capital at a reasonable rate and then province to have the ability to backstop the payments. So that adds economic certainty of a project. The other thing, and I know it’s still early days, but the province of Alberta, they’re talking about an energy corridor with Treaty eight, where the First Nations are going to be in. The 80 groups are going to be the ones talking about what’s appropriate, where that line goes, what’s appropriate for development. I sit on the board of Northern Resources and the Ring of Fire in northern Ontario, and it’s the communities that are driving the environmental assessment process for road infrastructure. Which brings me to the last point is our communities are absolutely tired of coming to the table last. Why does a regulatory process and the precedent for the most part is that companies go and engineer the hell out of a project, get their engineers to come to the table, wipe the hands and go, OK, let’s talk to the indigenous communities now and see what they think. I’ll tell you what those communities think. I think what the heck were you thinking coming up to us at the very end? Why don’t you come to us at the beginning when we know this landscape the best? And now with all of the legal precedents, we’re going to say, no, no way are you going to develop your project because you don’t respect us. And so it’s that mutual respect and reciprocity. We always have to go into the boardrooms and communities with to develop projects in a holistic way that is respectful of indigenous sovereignty and as well as the economic model. Speaker 1 [00:14:37] Have you seen that consultative process improving? Speaker 2 [00:14:40] Yes. Yes. I have a group that I am so lucky to advise Chief Charlene Gale’s the chair. She’s in fact, she’s the chief of Fort Nelson First Nation. Neil Edwards is the CEO. They are the executive director of the First Nations Major Project Coalition, and the government is supporting this group. It’s got so much great work. There are two streams when you engage this group as a as an indigenous community or as a proponent. Coming in there will walk you through the environmental because if you can’t do the environmental questioning and process to make sure communities aren’t going to be severely or negatively impacted, you’re not going to get to the business modeling once you pass the sniff test on the on the environmental piece. And you’ve got and this is the thing that I just don’t understand about some projects where they come to our communities last. If you can’t get the indigenous buy-in that your project’s done, do the hard work, get the buy and the economic modeling is going to get better. So then you go into the economic modeling and what the markets are saying and ESG and investment and, you know, investors third, they’re not dumb. They’re all asking, what’s the indigenous relationship like if you don’t have that nailed down in a progressive way? We’re probably not going to be interested in if we do, the cost of that capital is going to be extraordinary because the uncertainty that ensues. So the S&P C is this great organization that helps communities and corporations find that balance. On the modeling, the capacity there and the environmental, it’s a wonderful, wonderful organization. Speaker 1 [00:16:21] Coming up after the break, more of my conversation with J.P. Gladu. So stay right there. Speaker 3 [00:16:32] You’re listening to Disruptors, an RBC podcast. I’m John Stackhouse. Earlier this fall, RBC Economics and Thought Leadership released a report called the two trillion dollar transition Canada’s Road to Net Zero. It explores the costs and benefits of Canada’s shift to a carbon neutral economy and how it can fuel a new generation of Canadian innovation, from carbon capture technology to sustainable agriculture to the full potential of super charging electric vehicles. We look at all the ways for Canada to take a leading role in the fight for climate action and the economic opportunities those create. To learn more, check out the link to the show notes of this episode and visit our bbc.com. Net zero. And be sure to listen to and follow disruptors wherever you get your podcasts. Speaker 1 [00:17:23] Welcome back in the second half of my conversation with J.P. Gladue. We talk about the role of renewables in Canada’s energy mix, as well as the concept of a just transition. And importantly, we discussed the vital role indigenous communities play in building that new energy paradigm. If I can pivot just slightly, so I know you wear a lot of hats and among the many hats that you wear, you sit in the Suncor board. As you mentioned, Suncor is transforming itself into a more sustainable energy producer and is targeting 2050 as the year they become net zero. What do you think about that target and what are the biggest challenges still to overcome on that journey? Speaker 2 [00:18:07] Yeah, it’s a lofty goal. I mean, but the thing is that not only Suncor, we’ve got Imperial Central Meg Cenovus, 90 percent of the oilsands producers are all committed to this. So you have more partners committing to technology. More partners committing to reducing GHG is getting better at water use, getting better at indigenous consultation, engagement and empowerment strength in numbers. So I think because of that commitment with all of these companies, it is achievable. It really is. When we think about the way that our investment is talking about ESG and global investments, they’re going to look at that and they’re going to go, okay, that we can, OK? They’ve got a goal. It’s going to be challenging, but it is possible. Suncor is an incredible organization, and they’ve had a great track record on a number of fronts. And just think about this from a global perspective. You know, when we think about the major oil and gas producers in the world, there’s only two out of the top six. There’s only two that you can invest in because the rest are state owned. And the one country that I’m referring to does that the best in the world when it comes to gender, when it comes to indigenous, when it comes to regulatory, when it comes to water, when it comes to everything else, we’ve got to reduce our GHG. And so when we do that, it’s competitive world and the oil and gas companies understand this. And when they reduce that, nobody’s going to touch Canadian oil and gas. And so we’ve got it. We’ve got it. We’ve got to hit that. That’s the path forward. We have to. Speaker 1 [00:19:45] And there’s still an open question on energy production at its most basic, whether it’s better to find ways to reduce the carbon emissions in traditional extraction or to shift focus to develop more renewable energy sources. And of course, it’s not just another question. Speaker 2 [00:20:01] It’s and it’s and Speaker 1 [00:20:03] so what would you say is the best path for the right mix to meet our future energy needs? Speaker 2 [00:20:08] The I think you said it’s the mix. I don’t know if anybody has a crystal ball on this because there’s so much uncertainty. We’re investing in hydrogen and we’re investing in carbon capture. We’re and we have to spend more time investing in our natural capital of trees. I think it’s one of the best carbon eating machines that I know as a forester. So, so, you know, companies like Suncor are investing the time and resources in those types of technologies, but we cannot rely just on one. It’s like a balanced portfolio. When I look at my RRSP or my investment accounts I’m distributed across. I’ve got some risky investments and you know, some of these investments that we’re exploring the technology, there’s risk. But the payoff could be amazing will be amazing if we can get some of them done. The natural capital is would probably be my easiest one. I mean, I know what the return on the capital of a tree would be. We’re going to plant more of those, but we also have to get better at our processes with the reduction of of the water, the reduction of energy required to extract oil out of the sands. We have to get better at that. We have to get lower emissions out of those processes as well. So we’ve got to look at these things, evaluate them, improve upon them, the stuff that’s not working. Let’s fail quickly, get that out of the way and let’s get the next one on the on the road. And you know, we’ve got a you know, we’ve got to play a number of fronts. We just can’t rely on one path because if we fall off a cliff, not one path and we haven’t spent any time on the other password dooms you. Speaker 1 [00:21:43] You often talk about a just transition. Can you elaborate more on what you mean by that? Speaker 2 [00:21:49] Absolutely. I went to the I went to fill up this morning. You know, I live in the north, I’m a hunter and I’m two hours from Thunder Bay, so I have a truck. And it’s always interesting when we think about environmentalism, it’s always easier to be an environmentalist when you ask everybody else to do the hard work. It really is. It’s it’s baffling. Sometimes, you know, DiCaprio comes up to the oil sands and, you know, chastises the oilsands for oil and gas development. When he flies around the world, it’s got a billion whatever boats and helicopters and they come on like, let’s be real here. But so the just chance I’ll get off my soapbox. But the just transition is yes. Yes. I mean, I sit on an oil and gas company. I also chair the boilers ship champions around conservation. I took my daughter hunting and a clean environment. We need both. And a just transition is the fact that we’ve. Got two sides here, and we’re trying to build a bridge and to meet that bridge to make sure that we can travel in a clean environment and a sustainable economy. The renewables, the batteries, the infrastructure for four battery cars, the wind, the solar. We just don’t have the capacity to meet world demand for energy. There is way too many people that suffer significant like deathly poverty because they don’t have access to energy. How is that? How’s that right in the world? So oil and gas is going to be here for quite a while yet. And that that demand, you can see in our price of our gas, you can see and Biden going over the they’ll tech companies, countries are getting more oil and we got oil up here, but it’s not going to happen overnight and we’ve got to make sure that we’re we hold corporations accountable to their targets. We need to make sure that we have a little bit more balance in the way that we. I’m a proud indigenous Canadian and the way that we develop our resource sector, it’s not perfect. It’s getting better. We see the goalposts and we’re trying to navigate between those posts and we’ve got indigenous inclusion. That is, it’s got to get better, but it’s definitely a hundred percent better than it was even 10 years ago. But that transition is going to take time, and we need to continue to measure, adjust, reinvest, measure, adjust, readjust to get there because there’s way too many energy workers. If we just said no more oil and gas well, our oil, our gas, the pumps are going to go through the roof, then Canadians go to our gas so expensive. And then all these people are going to be out of jobs with nothing, no vine to hold on to the poverty that will ensue because we don’t have the energy, the new jobs for these, for this transition. So it’s going to take some time. Speaker 1 [00:24:38] Yeah, exactly. And when we look at what’s happening in Europe and with the U.K., with their energy shortages, it affects all aspects of the economy and not just not just the energy sector. Speaker 2 [00:24:48] Yeah. And I think Canadians really care about it. I think we care about each other, even though there’s this provincial fights that happen, these transfer payments that were that Alberta started to question. I think we need there’s still a little bit too much polarization in Canada, but I do believe Canadians, you know, because many of our communities travel for construction, jobs, et cetera, and they bring those experiences from other provinces back home and they bring their experience and their culture and their food to other places like Fort McMurray, who’s got lots of incredible Newfoundlanders. And, you know, as an example, we care. I believe Canadians care Speaker 1 [00:25:24] if I can ask you to switch your hat again. Can you tell us a bit about your work with the Energy Futures Lab? Speaker 2 [00:25:31] Well, this is this is relatively new and they are part of the natural step. They asked me early while late spring, I guess early summer, if and again it’s a little bit sensitive and we’ve been very, very fully transparent. The group came to me a little bit late in the process, but they recognized that they had a big gap and that was the indigenous voice. So to carry it and agile on in the crew, you know, thank you for bringing me on. We’re doing our best. And I’ve got this amazing group of half a dozen indigenous leaders from Alberta, one from B.C., one from Ontario, and we’re trying to figure out a policy paper that’s been largely drafted. But there’s tons of room to inject our ideas and the indigenous voice around the criteria, like things like alignment around net zero and our trajectory, a forward looking ESG approach and economic viability building in Alberta’s incredible. They’ve done incredible work, so build on those current assets and strengthen the economy and in promoting an inclusive economy, which is the indigenous one to the building blocks. We’ve done lots of work. What does carbon look like? Carbon fiber, lithium batteries, hydrogen, geothermal? So we’re basically taking this indigenous voices and we’re applying our knowledge systems as well as our need for our economy. And they’ve got these incredible leaders that are on the table that are bringing their experience so that we can make sure when these policy ideas mature with our voice that we’re not going to make the same mistakes that we’ve been making for a hundred and fifty years when it comes to the lack of indigenous inclusion so that policymakers can see exactly what it means to have indigenous people at the table in the value and the experience, and quite frankly, the brilliance of these people that I get to work with Speaker 1 [00:27:26] or above to ask you more about that as we start to wrap up. What is your vision for the future of indigenous participation and leadership in energy production and natural resource development? I believe that the natural resource sector employs a large amount of indigenous peoples. If I state is correct. Speaker 2 [00:27:44] You totally got it. And what is it, seventy three point nine for seven percent of stats are made up. I’m going to make this one. I’m going to be as close as I can. But you know, my friend Kelly Lindsey runs an indigenous human resource development group. For years, I think it was his work. He talked about seven or eight Canadians out of 100 rely on the natural resource sector. I don’t think Canada even knows this. Seventy 16, 17 percent of our GDP, right, by the way, the oil and gas sector over the next 30 years, or one hundred trillion dollars that are 30 trillion dollars to our economy and it’s big indigenous people. To your point, Teresa think it’s around 17 or 18 at a 20 rely on the natural resource sector. So can you imagine if we don’t get this just transition right, what that is going to do to our people? We’re just getting into the job market. For the last 20 years, we’ve been shut out of the economy because of colonialist practices and racism for how long? We’re just getting a foothold. Understanding what it is to break the cycles of government dependency. And all of a sudden you rip the sectors that that our people rely on the most from underneath our feet. That’ll send us back decades, decades, decades, decades. So my vision for the natural resource sector and indigenous people and so we have more people looking like me, maybe not as funny looking sitting on corporate boards, you know, like my mum said, I got a face for radio, so having more of our people in those leadership positions. It was great. I was there a dozen indigenous people that are now in federal politics. I mean, we need more people at that level and we need the equity pool so that, you know, our vision is that our people are actually the ones doing the the sustainable extraction, running the companies, generating the benefits so that we’re not passive participants. You know, for a long time, we couldn’t get work. Then we got jobs and we started businesses and entrepreneurs and we started joint ventures and now we’re primary producers. I want to see more of that. I want to see two or three indigenous companies in the top hundred companies in the world. You know, that’s that’s the vision I have for our people in the natural resource sector, in this country Speaker 1 [00:30:04] and with the knowledge that indigenous youth are also the fastest growing cohort of youth in Canada. How do you see the next generation innovating in the sector? Speaker 2 [00:30:13] Wow. They are brilliant. They are bright, they’re on fire. I have an almost 18 year old daughter who educates me every time I talk to her. They really do have huge opportunities. There’s still significant challenges, of course, in our communities, which we know we don’t. We don’t have to get into. But when we think about the technology advancements, the opportunities to advance that those youth have so much ahead of them. When I when I look in, I stand on the shoulders of giants like a Phil Fontaine as an example, who’s a mentor of mine, who’s done incredible work. There weren’t a lot of Phil Fontaine’s in the world. Then you get to my group and you know, I get to work with the Clint Davis is the Sherry France, the Tabitha Bowles, the Kim Baird. You know, that group is larger. It’s a larger base, but we’re still very few and we are stretched to the max. And then I look at the youth coming up behind me, the twenty five to thirty five year olds who are being educated and are holding on to their cultures and traditions and communities, and their ability to be able to take that knowledge, combine it with their education. Watch out. These youth are going to transform Canada Speaker 1 [00:31:25] and the world. JP my my last question to you is what tangible, practical lessons or practices can we learn from indigenous stewardship of natural resources, the environment as we move into a lower carbon economy? Speaker 2 [00:31:39] And I think just sit down with our communities and and have some tea, go fishing, go something. The stories that emanate from just being around a campfire with our community members will enrich our lives. And I’ll tell you a little story in a second. The practical things that you can do is, you know, show up if you don’t show up, nothing’s going to get done, show up to community events, show up to business events, support organizations like the RCMP and NAC Mafiosi, and support those organizations that are doing great work procure from indigenous entrepreneurs. Because when you procure from those entrepreneurs, you’re building a relationship and you’re supporting a family or supporting a community and you’re supporting an economy, but you just got to show up. I mean, the practical things, just throw your fear based, your preconceived notions about who we are as people and show up, and that’s going to get you a long way. There’s a book Triple Crown. It’s been a while since I’ve read that, Jim. Apprentices, Buck and I was there today at a panel talking about his fucking and somebody asked me what kind of a similar question. And what struck me about Jim was that he read like one of the three crowns was the indigenous relationships, and he took the time to travel and meet with indigenous people to understand us. And I’ll just relate this back to my one of my very first forestry lessons. I was just a young little wet behind the ears and we were grading trees, one twos and threes. And I’ve told this story many times. So many of us heard this this last thing, and I apologize, but some of you may not have. But our prof said, You know, what’s that tree and what do you think it is? A one is called fine lumber to is lumber and pulp, and three is mostly pulp. And what kind of tree is? And so we are looking and I remember I visit, I remember as a yellow birch and we all started out one two one two and our tech said, Well, you’re all wrong. And we’re like, Well, what do you mean? It’s not one of you went to go around the other side of the tree to see what it looks like. On the other side, that could be a big split down. There could be a tree. So my challenge to your listeners is get up and walk around the indigenous tree if you don’t understand it. How can you work with us? Right? That’s the same thing as just show up, because that’s what’s going to progress this country. Speaker 1 [00:34:01] Relationships show up. That is such a simple yet effective and powerful statement. Thank you so much for sharing your insights with us on disruptors. Speaker 2 [00:34:10] Thank you, Terry. So it’s a real pleasure. Speaker 1 [00:34:14] That was J.P. Gladu board director at Suncor Energy and a principal at Mokwateh Consultancy. We hope you’ve enjoyed these extended cuts from some of our most popular interviews from the climate conversations. A special multi-part series on disrupters. To hear the complete series, go to RBC dot com slash disruptors. Until next time, I’m Theresa Doe. Talk to you soon. Speaker 4 [00:34:41] Disruptors, an RBC podcast is created by the RBC Thought Leadership Group and does not constitute a recommendation for any organization, product or service. It’s produced and recorded by JAR Audio. For more disruptors content like or subscribe wherever you get your podcasts and visit rbc.com/disruptors.

Build confidence, build supports, build infrastructure.

Those are some of the calls we heard from Indigenous leaders in the tech space, when we brought a roundtable together to discuss Building Bandwidth, RBC’s recent report on preparing Indigenous youth for a digital future. The report makes the case for harnessing the power of two growing forces in Canada: the rapidly advancing economy, and the emergence of Indigenous Canadians as the fastest growing youth demographic in the country.

Building Bandwidth was always intended as a conversation starter. Here are five ideas for moving forward, based on insights from Indigenous techies across Canada.

1. “Cohort in community”

Everyone agrees: technology needs to play a bigger role in K-12 education.

But there’s an important caveat. Developing new skills should be community-driven. Parents and teachers play a critical role in nurturing young people’s budding tech skills—they’re the “influencers” long before kids discover Instagram and TikTok.

Blaire Gould, who promotes technology in schools as the executive director of Mi’kmaw Kina’matnewey in Nova Scotia, talked about the value of youth learning alongside others in their community: making friends, building connections. This practice, “cohort in community,” produces better results than pursing school and training elsewhere. Too often, Indigenous youth feel compelled to leave their communities, and find themselves missing their support net and overwhelmed by culture shock.

Similarly, an outside organization coming into the community for a one-off event or weekly workshop doesn’t cut it either, according to Jace Meyer, the executive director of the Indigenous Innovation Institute. That tends to create an “us and them” divide, leaving the impression that the skills came into the community but then left again.

2. Roll out the role models

When Indigenous students don’t see themselves reflected in the tech programs or companies that interest them, it makes them far less likely to take a chance on applying.

Tara Rush, who collaborates with Indigenous communities in her work at Google in Waterloo, talked about actively going to schools and colleges to talk to Indigenous students—particularly in the U.S., where a lot of their hiring is focused—to make it clear you can be an Indigenous face in a Google t-shirt.

The work doesn’t stop once a young Indigenous person kicks off a career in tech. The employer needs to surround them with a good support system, and help them to reach their full potential.

The shift to remote work might make this more difficult. Any employer serious about hiring and retaining Indigenous talent also needs to be serious about advocating for Internet access—the lack of connectivity is arguably the biggest barrier to success. Furthermore, in the absence of face-to-face conversations, anti-racism training will become even more important, so managers and colleagues remain aware of the danger of micro-aggressions and emotional labour on employees who are BIPOC (Black, Indigenous and People of Colour).

3. Build confidence in the future

Mitch Gegwetch, who leads NPower’s Indigenous tech workforce development from Toronto, talked about how, for many Indigenous youth, completing high school or even getting a GED doesn’t seem worth the investment.

There was widespread agreement on this critical point: they need to know where education could lead.

Dallas Flett-Wapash, who grew up on Keeseekoose First Nation in Saskatchewan, recalled how he loved watching YouTube and playing videogames—but didn’t know there was a way into the space for him. It wasn’t until grade 12, when a teacher introduced him to software like Photoshop and video editing, that he saw a possible career in technology mapped out for him. Now he’s a videogame developer, and he leads online workshops as a youth mentor.

Getting the word out early is something Jordan Baptiste takes seriously in his work developing training and education opportunities for Indigenous youth in Saskatoon. They get big smiles on their faces when they learn about careers in tech, he said. Growing up, many assume that the jobs that await them are limited to the skilled trades.

4. Promote purpose

For Nova Scotia’s Gould, the demands of directing education across the province’s Mi’kmaq communities—including long hours and travel—are balanced out by the intrinsic value of working for her community. That’s what keeps her going.

Indigenous youth need to see tech as a means to better social and cultural outcomes, not just career advancement. The tech world tends to emphasis individualism, and capitalism more generally, and that doesn’t necessarily resonate.

“We don’t thrive in white capitalism,” said Shopify’s Tracy Ridler, who works with Indigenous entrepreneurs across Canada. “We thrive in collectivism.”

5. Harness Indigenous creativity

Children are natural innovators, and technology comes naturally to many of them. Nurturing these twin skills from an early age could pay off in a big way, instilling confidence in young people to try new ways of doing things.

Flett-Wapash, the videogame developer, is passionate about his work because not much of the content he consumed growing up was created from an Indigenous perspective. Now he can imagine a world where creative learners such as himself are able to stay within their communities, and create things the community wants—from educational videos to the software to advance policy needs.

Taking this a step further, the roundtable participants talked about the value of truly taking ownership of technology—such as building platforms and infrastructure—in order to see technology as an Indigenous space, where they too belong.

Read the Report

Read

Sonya Bell joined RBC’s Thought Leadership and Economics team as a Senior Manager, Content Delivery in 2018, coming from Queen’s Park where she was a senior writer to the former Premier of Ontario. Previously, Sonya worked in journalism as a producer at CBC and as a federal political reporter for iPolitics. Between Parliament Hill and Queen’s Park, she spent two seasons as a comedy writer on This Hour Has 22 Minutes.

The Issue

The pandemic has created a historic crisis for Canadian colleges and universities. It could present a significant opportunity, too. The widespread use of online learning platforms and tools offers educators a chance to reach a global body of students that could far exceed Canada’s current market.

It won’t be easy – other countries are eyeing the same opportunity and our schools will need to invest to grow, at a time when they’re being asked to cut. But as Canada pursues a knowledge-driven economic recovery, the digital export of post-secondary education could attract talent, create high-value jobs and help colleges and universities reimagine themselves in a pandemic-disrupted world.

POV

The global spread of COVID-19 shocked international education; and it’s not clear how quickly it will recover. So far this year, just three-quarters of the 2019 level of international students have arrived, while the number of study permit applications has plummeted, risking some of the estimated $22 billion in annual contributions these students make to our economy, and straining a sector that supports an estimated 170,000 jobs.

The fiscal impact of lost international student tuition is already hitting colleges and universities. Colleges and Institutes Canada expects only about a third of 2019’s level of new international students this fall. And rising deficits are leaving provinces with fewer resources to fight economic fires.

A concerted effort – among our schools, provinces and federal departments – is needed to resume Canada’s leadership in attracting international students, whose ranks numbered 642,000 at the beginning of 2020. Expedited visa processing, ensuring safe housing and broadening recruitment efforts will be critical.

Yet, international education is also ripe for new models. At the peak of national lockdowns, some 1.6 billion students were pushed out of school, prompting a shift in preferences toward distance and online learning. Among the nearly 300 million new degree-holders we’ll see globally by 2030 – double today’s number – many more will earn their credentials online.

Reaching these potential international students through a hybrid post-secondary model – online at entry, and on-campus at completion – would allow Canada’s universities to be key players in this growing sector. Consider the potential of a collective push among our universities to create a global “Canada U” program. Students would earn credits remotely from their home country, gaining language skills, career guidance and virtual work-integrated learning opportunities – becoming strong candidates to secure admission to upper year studies at a university in Canada.

Key Numbers



The global pandemic slowed student arrivals

Through June 2020, student arrivals among our top-10 source countries fell 26% compared with 2019. More troublesome was the 60% drop in new study permits received by IRCC in April, May and June, and the slow rate of visas processed – only about 10% of last year’s volume was completed this spring.

Yet, internationally mobile learners are motivated to continue studying abroad

COVID lockdowns have discouraged only 5% of international students to fully abandon studies. The majority (54%) are inclined to delay their education by up to 12 months in hopes of starting studies on-campus. Only three in ten plan to begin studying online first.

Number of young graduates set to double by 2030

Asia will produce new graduates at break-neck speed, accounting for more than half of young degree holders over the next decade. The surge will be largely fuelled by China and India, where the number of graduates will grow to 81 million and 70 million respectively.

Global middle class to add 1.7 billion people by 2030

If the COVID recovery is broadly inclusive, the global middle class could swell to 5.7 billion within 10 years, leading to higher post-secondary enrolments, though faculty and funding constraints in the global south may slow institutional growth. India – Canada’s largest source of international students – could see some 600 million move to middle income levels. Meanwhile, Ethiopia, Angola and Cote D’Ivoire could together add over 20 million to the middle class.

Online cross-border education market reaches double global learners

An estimated 13 million students are earning credits online from a foreign institution. This is double the roughly 6 million on-campus international students in 2019. Canada (12%) has been the third most popular destination for on-campus international students, behind the US (21%) and Australia (13%). But it remains a minor player in cross-border online learning.

Key Questions

1. How could an online focus strengthen Canada’s international education strategy?

Online education was absent from Canada’ international education strategy, released in August 2019. Just six months later, the federal government moved quickly to allow foreign students to complete up to 50% of their program online from their home country. While this was intended to shore up existing students amid the pandemic, it opens the possibility of a new approach to our global education engagement.

Canada’s universities have already made significant investments in remote learning methods and technology, having moved 1.4 million students online this spring. Left fragmented, these resources can serve the immediate needs of schools; but combined into a unique international program, they could magnify their reach.

Canada U would engage more students in more places, combining the flexibility of a MOOC, the rigour of a Canadian credential and the appeal of experience in the Canadian workforce. Broadly, here’s what it could include:

  • Open, rolling enrolment for early-year online studies in their home country.
  • Lower per-credit tuition costs, driven by the scale of massive global enrolment.
  • Opportunity to accumulate credits towards a Canadian credential, or transfer to a domestic university.
  • Canadian based faculty, and remote counsellors for academic, career and language development.
  • Networking opportunities via Canadian trade offices in their country or satellite campuses.
  • Chance to undertake remote work-integrated learning (WIL) with a Canadian employer.
  • Opportunity for admission to on-campus learning at a Canadian school, once student has achieved equivalent credits to 50% of desired program.

Such an approach could open Canadian education to millions of young, mobile learners.

This would be no small undertaking. It would require unprecedented collaboration among our universities to provide course instruction and materials, with supports from federal and provincial governments to build digital infrastructure and global marketing, and among provincial credit transfer bodies to ensure smooth academic transitions.

2. How big is the online education market?

The OECD estimates that over 13 million students participate in cross-border online education, through both formal institutions and online platforms. The majority of these learners – while benefiting from the convenience of online studies – are not putting those credits toward a degree.

The UK has the largest number of remote international students working towards a degree – at 120,000 or about 12% of their enrolled foreign students. The culture of open distant learning (ODL) has been a key part of the UK’s strategy, cultivated across the Commonwealth – with the Open University in the UK claiming more than 2 million global graduates. By contrast, in the US, only about 5% of international students are based outside the country, and at Canada’s largest online-only school, Athabasca University, just 3% are international students.

The most significant growth over the last decade has been among MOOCs, or massive open online courses, that offer short-term courses. Though characterized by low course completions and poor student retention, their use has spiked amid the current economic uncertainty as learners seek to upgrade skills.

One of the largest platforms, EdX, claims to have had 33 million learners – nearly 70% from US and Europe. New entrant Lectera is launching a multi-lingual, fast-training program focused on workplace skills to reach global students. Google is entering this space too, providing fast-track online learning for job-focused skills to compete with traditional college diplomas.

Developed by MIT and Harvard, Edx has successfully bridged MOOC and traditional education with its MicroBachelors and MicroMasters programs, where students from anywhere can earn credits online, fast-tracking their learning when admitted on-campus. The success of these efforts demonstrates the potential for a “Canada U” program.

3. Do international students want to study online?

International students prefer– by far – to study on-campus, when possible. Surveys have repeatedly shown a strong desire among these learners to transition to the Canadian job market, with 70% intending to work here after graduation. Only the reputation of our education system (82%) and perception of a safe, tolerant society (79%) rate higher.

Yet, when we look at those who study primarily online, students in emerging countries appear to have a higher motivation to earn foreign credits online. Among MOOC students in Colombia, Philippines and South Africa, 49% completed at least one course; among those employed, it jumped to 70%, a 2016 survey found. By comparison, only 5 to 10% of MOOC students in the US and Europe will complete their online studies.

A Canada U could achieve a balanced approach of online and on-campus; offering accessible remote learning to many, with a pathway to completing studies at a Canadian school.

4. Where is the demand for greater post-secondary education?

Among Canada’s top originating countries of international students, five have seen enormous growth in high school completion that hasn’t been matched by post-secondary achievement: Vietnam, Brazil, Iran, China and India. Among them, the proportion of adults (over 25) with only a high school diploma jumped between 1990 and 2010.


Upper Secondary education completion among adults (25+) without tertiary education, select countries



This growth shows two things. First, the value of high school completion is rising in developing nations. Second, there has been a slower capacity to convert these learners to post-secondary degrees. It’s no surprise either that the top originating countries of international students are also source countries of new Canadians; last year over 11,000 new permanent residents previously studied here. For Canada, education exports have led directly to talent imports.

Online education can attract more international students than traditional on-campus education by lowering the high financial barriers of tuition, travel and housing. Cost will be a key factor for families arriving into the middle class. This year alone, currency pressures have seen the Canadian dollar appreciate greatly against the Brazilian Real, Nigerian Naira, Ethiopian Birr, Russian Ruble, and slightly against the Indian Rupee and Chinese Yuan – boosting tuition costs.


 

What to Watch

 


  • As colleges and universities reopen, and travel restrictions ease, will applications to study in Canada return to pre-COVID levels? Do we have enough capacity to promptly process applications?
  • How will universities perceive their new online education resources, as strictly emergency spending or a potential growth opportunity? Can schools collaborate towards more shared online resources?
  • To appeal to global students, will universities attempt a larger physical presence abroad, through satellite campuses or local partnerships?
  • How can the intellectual property of online education be secured when entering markets with poor censorship or legal regimes?

Key Stakes

Education is a global social good. It is also a potent global market. The two concepts should not be separated. Canada has an excellent reputation abroad for high quality education; it’s one of the things we do best, with the highest rated tertiary education among the OECD and an already impressive share of international students choosing to learn here.

In the increasingly global knowledge economy, education is one of Canada’s greatest competitive advantages. Our deep alumni network of foreign graduates helps foster business networks abroad and strengthens trading relationships. Our robust student work permits lead to strong talent acquisition as a pathway to permanent residency. As Canada looks to rebuild for the 2020s, international education must be a key plank in our national strategy.

Canada U is one idea to help us get there. Embracing this bold venture will mean breaking down the artificial barriers between our higher education institutions and provinces to promote a collaborative, platform approach to international education. It will also require new funding to assemble the necessary technology, faculty and global marketing to make it a success, without clawing back existing transfers to our universities.

There is no shortage of competition in international education – from traditional universities to tech upstarts to growing domestic higher education – but Canada is uniquely placed to lead (if it wants to).


How the COVID-19 Crisis will Transform Higher Education

Listen to Podcast


This report was authored by John Stackhouse, Senior Vice-President, and Andrew Schrumm, Senior Manager, Research, in the Office of the CEO

“I told them straight up, I’m not technically gifted,” Adatia said. “I bring something different.”

In the end, he landed the job. In the age of disruption, different can be good.

In a new RBC report, Bridging the Gap: What Canadians Told us about the Skills Revolution, we followed up on our landmark research into the future of work, Humans Wanted, by spending a year travelling across the country, engaging with students, educators, business owners and policymakers.

Read the Full Report

Download

Over the course of those discussions, a number of insights emerged into how the skills revolution is playing out across our country — and the challenges we need to confront.

One of those challenges is that Liberal Arts programs are in decline — even though demand for their skills is up. We heard from employers that they are increasingly looking for candidates with the soft skills cultivated in the arts and sciences, such as critical thinking and communication — but post-secondary leaders told us enrollment in the Liberal Arts is down by double-digits.

In our tech-obsessed society, public discourse is so hostile to the humanities that young people are turning away from them, according to Patrick Deane, the president at McMaster University.

“Parents, governments and society at large underestimate the critical skills fostered in the humanities – this is a long-term systemic and cultural problem,” Deane said.

Between 2011 and 2017, enrollment in the humanities fell by 17.5%. Over the same period, enrollment increased by 45% in mathematics, computer and information sciences. These areas of study are seen as a more direct path to a steady job after graduation, the holy grail for young people who grew up in the shadow of the Great Recession.

Students studying arts and sciences find themselves worrying about where they fit into the future of work.

“Everyone’s scared of not getting a job,” Adatia said. “You can have a passion but you can’t have a job, that’s the perception.”

But it’s not the reality. While students are increasingly choosing specialized training, employers are looking for well-rounded graduates. According to LinkedIn, the top soft skills employers are having trouble hiring for are creativity, persuasion and collaboration.

“Soft skills are every bit as important as numeracy,” said Steven Murphy, Ontario Tech’s president and vice chancellor.

Adatia, whose philosophy major is complimented by a minor in commerce, found his future employer was willing to help get him up to speed on the technical aspects of the job. The team was excited by the skills he already brought to the table, like the ability to think critically, argue and reason.

Today’s demand for a Liberal Arts skillset isn’t happening despite automation. It’s happening because of it. As more tasks become automated in the workplace, there is a growing demand for people with the skills to both complement and collaborate with technology.

Employers are looking for technical capacity as a baseline. Those who get hired, like Adatia, are the ones that can demonstrate communication and complex problem solving skills.

Heading into the 2020s, we need more curiosity and creativity from all new grads in Canada. This is behind a growing push for interdisciplinary learning. While STEM grads need soft skills, humanities programs need to focus on providing digital fluency to their students. Gone are the days when students can be a ‘master of one’.

The future of work may be changing, but Canada’s youth have the potential, the ambition and power to impact the world around them.

Getting the word out to young graduates about the opportunities that await them is a communications challenge for employers and career counsellors.

Our Bridging the Gap research shows arts students exactly what to do with their B.A. after graduation: put it on their CV.