EN 
Diverging regional trends continued for Canada’s housing markets in August. Ontario markets showed mixed momentum, with Toronto’s recovery faltering amid escalating trade uncertainty, while Ottawa continued its improvement with prices edging above year-ago levels for the first time since November 2025.
British Columbia remains the weakest region. Vancouver and the Fraser Valley continue experiencing price declines, albeit at a slower pace. Montreal faces persistent affordability challenges, though expanding inventory may help ease conditions as tightening occurs elsewhere.
Calgary and Edmonton are cooling as well, but relative strength from population growth should provide some support to demand.
This uneven regional performance reflects how trade policy uncertainty, declining populations, and structural supply dynamics play out differently across regions. Confidence remains fragile and unevenly distributed, with stimulative measures and accumulated demand providing some offset to broader headwinds.
We expect the uneven recovery to persist through year-end as regional affordability gaps and structural dynamics evolve at different speeds.
Toronto area: Two steps back as resales and prices fall
Toronto’s housing market has hit a bump in its tentative recovery.
Resales fell 1.3% seasonally adjusted in August —snapping an upward streak building since March. We think the pullback could reflect renewed angst amid the trade war escalation, though stimulative fiscal policy, the new housing rebate, and pent up demand should offer some counterweight.
Price momentum also faltered with the benchmark HPI falling in August from July after a series of monthly increases. This isn’t out of step with our expectations for a bumpy recovery with near-term momentum hanging on how disruptive trade policy will be for confidence.
Active listings continue to pewter out on the supply side, and keep a floor under prices. New listings are still down 14% year-over-year in August—a larger decline than the 2.1% y/y pullback in sales. Depressed housing starts—particularly among condos, which contracted sharply over the past two years—should continue to tighten supply structurally in coming quarters and help bring the market into better alignment.
Montreal area: Sellers step up
Sellers continued to emerge in Montreal in August with new listings climbing an estimated 7.1% seasonally adjusted from July. This extends a pattern of gradually improving supply throughout 2026, as inventory eases from earlier tight constraints.
Still, demand remains subdued. Resales have fluctuated in recent months broadly pointing downward. August saw a temporary lift with resales rising an estimated 4.5% seasonally adjusted from July, but transactions continue to trail year-ago levels.
Poor affordability appears to be the primary headwind suppressing resales, with our measure still hovering near an all-time worst. But as inventory continues to build from the earlier supply crunch, we anticipate affordability pressures will begin to ease, strengthening buyer demand.
Vancouver area: Sales increase doesn’t negate struggles
Vancouver’s four-year housing slump showed signs of life in August, bucking weakness seen across other major markets.
We estimate resales rose 8.5% seasonally adjusted from July, more than reversing a 4.5% decline the previous month.
The uptick came alongside a sharp increase in new listings rising 12% m/m. This influx of supply pushed the sales-to-new listings ratio back into buyer-friendly territory after tightening marginally earlier in the summer.
Prices—albeit still falling—show tentative signs of stabilization with the rate of decline slowing. But, further depreciation may be needed to unlock pent-up demand and keep resales growing on a sustained basis.
Vancouver’s housing market remains the weakest among Canada’s six largest markets—a ranking we expect to hold through year-end.
Calgary: Cools further as sales slip
Calgary’s real estate market retreated in August with resales slipping more than 9% seasonally adjusted from July.
The decline erased earlier summer gains, returning resales to spring levels and inching closer to its 10-year average.
Condos continue to absorb most pressure with weak demand keeping prices a solid 8% below a year ago. Detached homes have held up considerably better, declining just 1.1% annually—in line with Calgary’s total MLS HPI benchmark decline—placing it in the middle of Canada’s six largest markets for price deterioration.
Sellers continue to flow into the market. New listings rose 1.4% seasonally adjusted in August, maintaining historically high inventory. The increase in new listings is modest, but with weak demand, the sales-to-new listings ratio hit 0.52—the lowest point since the pandemic. Still, the ratio remains in balanced market territory, which may limit sellers’ need to make aggressive price concessions.
Download the report
About the author:
Rachel Battaglia is an Economist at RBC, providing forecasts for the Canadian provincial economies and analyzing key trends in housing and consumer spending.
This article is intended as general information only and is not to be relied upon as constituting legal, financial or other professional advice. The reader is solely liable for any use of the information contained in this document and Royal Bank of Canada (“RBC”) nor any of its affiliates nor any of their respective directors, officers, employees or agents shall be held responsible for any direct or indirect damages arising from the use of this document by the reader. A professional advisor should be consulted regarding your specific situation. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. No endorsement of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressly given or implied by Royal Bank of Canada or any of its affiliates.
This document may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of certain securities laws, which are subject to RBC’s caution regarding forward-looking statements. ESG (including climate) metrics, data and other information contained on this website are or may be based on assumptions, estimates and judgements. For cautionary statements relating to the information on this website, refer to the “Caution regarding forward-looking statements” and the “Important notice regarding this document” sections in our latest climate report or sustainability report, available at: https://www.rbc.com/community-social-impact/reporting-performance/index.html. Except as required by law, none of RBC nor any of its affiliates undertake to update any information in this document.
