What Canadian farmers are watching closely

To check the pulse on the agri-food industry, RBC’s Thought Leadership team met with farmers from across Canada last week—from pork producers in Manitoba to members of the fruit and vegetable industry gathered in Montreal for their annual tradeshow.

What’s clear is that the industry is highly motivated to keep up the momentum; last year, Canadian agri-food export value was a record $106 billion. And all eyes are on commodity prices, U.S. farm policy and, of course, the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

What we heard:

• Many farmers are adopting a keep calm, carry-on approach. Farmers are accustomed to volatility, the result of managing through unexpected weather conditions, shifting commodity prices and equipment breakdowns. Trump’s tariffs are seen by many as just another disruption. That’s led some to ride out the resulting pricing swings (i.e. canola). Others, including grain and oilseed producers, are considering shifting the crops in rotation for the 2025 planting season, a direct result of China responding to Canada’s EV tariffs with their own on peas and canola products.

• Meeting the moment for Canadian-made items. The increased demand for made-in-Canada products is leading to American-made spoilage at grocery stores. The movement adds to the push for expanding Canada’s greenhouse sector acreage and diversity of products to close our production-consumption gap for fruits and vegetables.

• Canadian food producers and processors are working to bulletproof their USMCA-compliancy. Companies are preparing for scrutiny at the border to prove they are USMCA compliant and adhering to the rules within, such as country-of-origin. Just 0.1% of all agri-food products traded in 2024 were likely not USMCA-compliant but more than a third of Canada’s agri-food exports, albeit compliant, did not trade under the agreement.

• Trade diversification is underway. It is, however, yet to be seen if Canadian retailors and traders are going to be able to get like-for-like on quality and price for food products. Exporters and retailors are exploring where else they can source the products they need for their customers. But will Canadians want to buy a Moroccan orange over one from Florida?

• Can our ports handle our growth and diversification ambitions? Canada’s turn-around times are slower than key agri-food competitors, including the U.S., Australia and Brazil. The potential influx of product flow at Canada’s ports due to rising costs of moving goods through the U.S. may cause greater congestion and bottlenecks if Canada is not preparing for growth.

3 things to watch:

• Emergency U.S. farm support and its impact on Canadian farmers’ competitiveness. The USDA’s Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) is a $10 billion one-time economic assistance payment program to help farmers mitigate the impacts of increased input costs and falling commodity prices. For example, U.S. farmers can receive upwards of $77.66 per acre of oats and roughly $30 per acre for soybeans and wheat.

• Cuts to U.S. agriculture research programs and services. The dismantling of USAID and cuts to its funding to 19 land-grant university-based innovation labs across 17 states, as well as proposed cuts to NOAA’s climate research can undermine agriculture innovation and risk halting essential services such as weather monitoring.

• Risk of rising costs and disruptions for supply chains running through U.S. ports from New Orleans to Philadelphia. Trump’s April 9th executive order, Restoring America’s Maritime Dominance, instructs U.S. Trade Representatives to proceed with a proposal that includes a $1M docking fee at US ports for any ship that is part of a fleet that includes Chinese-built or Chinese-flagged vessels. On top of cost risk, U.S. custom services could slow down these just-in-time supply chains needed to bring Peruvian blueberries to Canada.

Lisa Ashton is Agricultural Policy Lead