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How the political shift will impact the fractured relationship between the two nations—on trade, energy and defence.
Trade
The result could accelerate talks to push for a deal by year-end
Signals, both from Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Trump, suggest trade talks between senior Canada-U.S. officials have picked up in the past 24 hours. While a comprehensive deal before year-end remains unlikely, a limited deal, similar to the one tabled in August, could advance by then. Getting Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s support will be crucial, especially if tariffs remain on autos.
Donald Trump is expected to back away from the January 1st tariff increase but autos remain the key issue
The U.S. President’s threat to increase tariffs on Canadian autos and steel to 50% would drive up U.S. vehicle prices weeks after an election lost on affordability, and U.S. automakers oppose it. However, heavy auto tariffs remain the key sticking point in Canada-U.S. negotiations. To reach a limited deal before the end of the year, Canada may have to accept tariffs on autos in exchange for other concessions.
Trade policy still runs through the White House
Congress cannot remove the Section 232 and 338 tariffs, and it cannot block a tariff deal without a two-thirds majority in both chambers. These election results are a repudiation of Trump’s trade and foreign policy, which were consistently criticized by Democratics, but outside of indirect pressure exerted through committees, there is little Democrats can do to materially change trade policy set by the executive branch in the next two years.
Any deal will be managed trade, and tariffs will likely outlast Trump
Washington has been clear that tariffs will be part of any agreement, and Democrats have their own protectionist streak: eight of the 10 Senate votes against CUSMA in 2020 were Democrats, and Sherrod Brown (Ohio Senator-elect), Abdul El-Sayed (Michigan Senator-elect) and Josh Turek (Iowa Senator-elect) have all said they support targeted tariffs to protect U.S. manufacturing. However, over the medium-term this political shift is favourable regarding Canadian trade policy.
Washington
Canada has more allies in Congress
Candidates who blamed the trade war for higher cost of living won Senate races in Michigan, Maine, Iowa, North Carolina, South Carolina, Kansas, Ohio and Texas. Six of the new Democratic senators will replace Republicans who voted against ending the emergency tariffs on Canada. Republicans in Texas, Ohio and South Carolina now face electorates that swung sharply against their party, and more of them may be willing to break with the White House on Canada. Many Democrats are hawkish on China and likely to look at Beijing’s trade with Canada, particularly rules of origin, through that lens.
Congress will press on tariffs through votes, hearings and spending bills
Democrats remain well short of the two-thirds votes needed to override a veto. Nevertheless, in the first 100 days expect bills drafted to force recorded votes on tariffs, including on Canada, to identify Republicans willing to vote against the White House. The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) must report to the Ways and Means and Finance Committees 70 days before each CUSMA review and brief them within 20 days, and Democratic chairs will use those obligations to call USTR to account.
Oversight will reach companies that made deals with the administration
House Oversight investigations begin in January, and the incoming chair, Robert Garcia, has warned the administration’s allies to “lawyer up.” Companies in tech, rare earths, financial services and pharmaceuticals, which struck deals with the administration, should expect subpoenas and document requests.
The states
Democratic governors give Canada a stronger channel in key states
Democrats will hold most governorships for the first time since 2010, including in Michigan, Ohio, Georgia, Iowa, Minnesota and Maine—where Canada is the largest export market—and in Pennsylvania and Texas. Governors cannot change federal tariffs, but they lobby the White House and their congressional delegations, set state procurement rules, sign agreements with provinces and control energy and data-centre policy. Josh Shapiro’s June MoU with Ontario on electricity transmission, nuclear and critical minerals, though non-binding, shows the potential for Canada to work with state governments. Jocelyn Benson (Governor-elect in Michigan) has pledged to negotiate subnational agreements directly with Canada (though Republicans have said this will not be possible), and Amy Klobuchar, a leading Senate opponent of tariffs on Canada, moves to Minnesota’s governorship.
Democratic states could add legal pressure on the tariffs
A coalition of blue states, led by Oregon, joined the litigation in which the Supreme Court struck down the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs. Democrats have now won the Texas attorney general’s office and full control of Pennsylvania’s legislature, widening the options for state action on trade.
The data-centre backlash favours power-rich Canadian sites
Voters rejected data centres almost everywhere the question was on the ballot, and the new governors of Texas, Georgia and Ohio, three of the largest growth markets, ran against an unrestricted buildout. Texas accounts for roughly a third of planned U.S. capacity. With states making data centres pay for their own power and federal pre-emption now unlikely, hyperscalers will choose sites by power supply, which makes Alberta Canada’s most attractive market. The opportunity is limited: Canada’s market is about 3.4% the size of the U.S. market. U.S. states’ AI rules could also impact Canadian lenders, starting with Colorado’s law on AI in financial decisions coming into effect on January 1.
Energy and defence
The oil industry wants permitting reform before Democrats take their seats
The U.S. industry is anxious to pass the Senate permitting bill in the so-called lame duck session and expects some progressives to try to derail it. The bill would shorten environmental reviews and the window for legal challenges and expand federal authority over interstate transmission, which would help cross-border pipelines and power lines. Democrats who won in oil and farm states are unlikely to turn against Canadian crude, which supplies about 60% of U.S. oil imports. If the bill fails, the next iteration will come on Democratic terms.
The Golden Dome will shrink, and Iran remains the main external risk
Democrats will shape the FY2027 defence budget and will trade defence funding for domestic spending programs and conditions on Iran. The Golden Dome missile program is likely to be redirected toward radars, interceptor batteries and regional munitions, which weakens Trump’s demand that Canada pay US$60–70 billion to join. Trump faces fewer constraints abroad than at home, and escalation with Iran before year-end remains possible even after Vice-President JD Vance blamed the war for the losses.
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