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Every year, Toronto plays host to the world’s biggest mining conference, as the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada brings together more than 27,000 global mining executives, investors and policy makers. And this year’s conference, running from March 2-5, is more critical than ever. Critical minerals will be centre stage, given their importance to the growing geopolitical race between the United States and China. They may not be the mainstay of mining but minerals like gallium and lithium are essential inputs in advanced technologies that span energy, defense, manufacturing and increasingly, artificial intelligence. Nations with secure access to these critical minerals will secure global economic competitiveness and national security. Here are three big questions we’ll be tracking at PDAC ‘25:
1. What’s with all the critical mineral hype?
From advanced semiconductors used in AI to the manufacturing of electric vehicles and batteries to technological advancements in defense and aerospace, critical minerals underlie the critical components of the Fourth Industrial Revolution – an era of disruptive technological forces driven by increased human-machine interaction. Today, China dominates the entire critical mineral value chain, from mining to refining/processing to end-use demand. The International Energy Agency has identified six core critical minerals (copper, lithium ,nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare earth elements) — and on average, China accounts for two-thirds of global refining capacity for the group. In contrast, the U.S. has limited domestic reserves of critical minerals and is entirely import-reliant on supply – often times from China itself. This battle for global tech supremacy between China and the U.S. is manifesting a critical mineral resource war, a new great game for the 21st century rivaling the geopolitical significance of oil post Second World War.
2. What role can Canada play in securing critical mineral supply chains?
Canada and the U.S. have an established minerals and metals trading relationship, as each other’s largest trading partner. In 2024, Canadian non-fuel mineral imports amounted to US$40 billion, or 24% of total U.S. imports. The country is also the largest source of U.S. critical mineral imports by dollar value, but largely skewed by ‘commercial’ critical minerals imports such as aluminum, nickel and zinc. Increasingly, there is a growing cohort of less commercial yet strategically important niche critical minerals with vital importance in defense applications, border security and advanced chip making. The supply of these minerals, such as gallium, germanium, antimony and tungsten, are dominated by China and are subject to Chinese export controls. It is across this subset of minerals particularly where we believe Canada can play a vital role in in de-risking U.S. and G7 critical mineral supply chains.
3. What can we expect to hear at the conference?
This year’s PDAC conference will have a greater-than-usual policy bent, given the increased tensions around U.S. critical mineral supply – already witnessed in Ukraine peace talks but also seen in President Trump’s commentary around Greenland and Canada. Continued rhetoric from policy makers and mining executives on Canada’s potential may expand the belief that Canada has allies and economic partners. We anticipate hearing more on how Canada can enhance its competitiveness in attracting critical mineral capital. This could include a greater role for governments in providing offtake agreements, enhanced fiscal incentives such as expanded investment tax credits, securing market access and streamlining permitting. RBC Thought Leadership will publish a more detailed report on critical minerals later this coming week, along with commentary throughout PDAC. You can follow our research and insights on RBC’s Trade Hub.
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