Skip to main content
RBC Thought Leadership Geopolitics, Trade and the Economy 3 QUESTIONS It’s a Trade War Without Borders: Frances Donald
Geopolitics, Trade and the Economy
Geopolitics, Trade and the Economy

3 QUESTIONS It's a Trade War Without Borders: Frances Donald

Read time 3 minutes

RBC Chief Economist Frances Donald answers three questions on Trump’s tariffs and its impact on the global economy.

Q: What do the U.S. tariff exemptions mean for Canada’s economic growth outlook? U.S. still has tariffs on Canadian autos, steel and aluminum.
FD: How quickly the Canadian economic narrative has shifted. Prior to “Liberation Day,” our biggest concern was the implications of broad based tariffs on Canadian growth and particularly, that Canada appeared to be the biggest relative loser of American trade policy. Now, while various sector specific tariffs will weigh on Canada in 2025, our concerns are shifting to more “traditional” risks to Canada’s economy—the rising risk of a U.S. recession and a drop in oil prices. The latter may be more “indirect” in some capacity, but they are also more of a function of global developments that have far less to do with Canadian-U.S. political relations.

Q: Do you expect the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve to reassess as U.S. tariffs are rolled out?
FD: The Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve are facing different challenges, just like their economies are struggling with different risks. In Canada, inflation is around 2% with some mild upside created by global supply chain disruptions ahead. And yet, Canadian growth is still tepid and supportive of a few more rate cuts. As of now, we continue to expect another 50bps of rate cuts.

The Federal Reserve is in a much greater bind. The size and scope of tariffs announced are consistent with higher inflation and a much lower growth profile. That “stagflationary” mix pulls at both sides of the Fed’s dual-mandate in opposite directions (price stability and full employment). At this point, our expectation is that concerns about inflation spiralling higher will keep the Federal Reserve on the sidelines, but markets have been increasing their probabilities of rate cuts to support what is likely to be a much weaker economy.

Q: A bigger tariff war looms, with the U.S.-China and U.S.-EU imposing tariffs and retaliatory tariffs. Will that be inflationary and damaging for the Canadian and global economy?
FD: Just how damaging U.S. tariffs turn out to be will largely be a function of how long they stay in place for, and economists are poorly credentialled on making that call. But the largest concern at this juncture is that we witness a global uptick in prices as supply chains become entangled and the interconnected nature of our global economy makes it difficult for any economy to escape rising costs. There are certainly similarities to the COVID era that can be drawn, except for one major one: we didn’t head into pandemic-era inflation having just gone through pandemic-era inflation. That is, Canadians and Americans have already experienced an over 20% increase in prices since 2020, and the ability of households and businesses to absorb a second wave of inflation so soon after is likely very limited. Last month, it seemed the trade war was North American centric. Now, it is global and without borders.

Further reading:

Yadullah Hussain is Managing Editor, RBC Thought Leadership

This article is intended as general information only and is not to be relied upon as constituting legal, financial or other professional advice. The reader is solely liable for any use of the information contained in this document and Royal Bank of Canada (“RBC”) nor any of its affiliates nor any of their respective directors, officers, employees or agents shall be held responsible for any direct or indirect damages arising from the use of this document by the reader. A professional advisor should be consulted regarding your specific situation. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. No endorsement of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressly given or implied by Royal Bank of Canada or any of its affiliates. This document may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of certain securities laws, which are subject to RBC’s caution regarding forward-looking statements. ESG (including climate) metrics, data and other information contained on this website are or may be based on assumptions, estimates and judgements. For cautionary statements relating to the information on this website, refer to the “Caution regarding forward-looking statements” and the “Important notice regarding this document” sections in our latest climate report or sustainability report, available at: https://www.rbc.com/our-impact/sustainability-reporting/index.html. Except as required by law, none of RBC nor any of its affiliates undertake to update any information in this document.

Read This Next

Trade Zone: The costs—and the economic prize—of the West Coast Oil Pipeline

Weighing the costs and economic benefits for the proposed West Coast Oil Pipeline

Trade Zone: Deal or no deal? What’s next for CUSMA

What does the no deal by the deadline really mean for North American trade

Trade Zone: Expect more elbows, fewer handshakes, as CUSMA talks heat up

Plus: 10 numbers that define Brexit’s impact on the U.K. 10 years later

Important Notice Regarding Information on this Website and Caution Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

The information on this website is intended as general information only and does not constitute an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, product or service in any jurisdiction; nor is it intended to provide investment, financial, legal, accounting, tax or other advice, and such information should not to be relied or acted upon for providing such advice. Nothing herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract, commitment, or investment decision whatsoever. The reader is solely liable for any use of the information contained herein, and neither Royal Bank of Canada (“RBC”, “we”, “our” and “us”) and its subsidiaries nor any of RBC’s affiliates nor any of their respective directors, officers, employees or agents shall be held responsible for any direct or indirect damage arising from the use of any information contained herein by the reader.

From time to time, we make written or oral forward-looking statements within the meaning of certain securities laws, including on this website, in filings with Canadian securities regulators or the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, and in other communications. Such statements are subject to our caution regarding forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements on our website include, but are not limited to, statements relating to our economic and sustainability related objectives, vision, commitments, goals and targets as well as potential events and actions. By their very nature, forward-looking statements require us to make assumptions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties, which give rise to the possibility that our predictions, expectations or conclusions will not prove to be accurate, that our assumptions may not be correct, and that our objectives, vision, commitments, goals and targets will not be achieved. We caution readers not to place undue reliance on these statements as a number of risk factors – many of which are beyond our control and the effects of which can be difficult to predict – could cause our actual results to differ materially from the expectations expressed in such forward-looking statements. ESG (including climate) metrics, data and other information contained on this website are or may be based on assumptions, estimates and judgements. For cautionary statements relating to the information on this website, refer to the “Caution regarding forward-looking statements” and the “Important notice regarding this report” sections in our latest sustainability report, available at: https://www.rbc.com/our-impact/sustainability-reporting/index.html.

Except as required by law, none of RBC nor any of its affiliates undertake to update any information on this website.

All expressions of opinion on this website reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information or expressions of opinion presented herein and they should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. No endorsement of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressly given or implied by RBC or any of its affiliates.

All references to websites are for your information only. The content of any websites referred to on this website, including via website link, and any other websites they refer to are not incorporated by reference in, and do not form part of, this website.  This website is also not intended to make representations as to sustainability-related initiatives of any third parties, whether named herein or otherwise, which may involve information and events that are beyond our control.