Speaker 1 [00:00:01] Hi, it’s John here. I was recently in Silicon Valley with some of the leading minds in AI from across the United States and Canada. Investors, engineers and executives from some of the world’s biggest tech companies. Among the many conversations which I’ll share in future episodes. We chatted about how close we are to seeing generative AI perform human tasks without command, and what we need to do as a society to prepare for that. Is this AI revolution going to spark mass unemployment or lead to social anarchy? Or will it lead to a world of surplus where humans will at last have the chance to fulfill the ambitions of humanity? Yes. When people hear AI, we often anonymize it with the robots are coming. Yeah, we’ve all seen James Cameron’s Terminator. But one of the things I took away from that trip is that in reality, the hardware side of AI is proving to be a lot harder than the software. And as a result, white collar work is likely to be more disrupted by AI in the coming years than blue collar work. AI, at least for now, is all about brainpower and less about brawn power. That means some of the most exciting opportunities for AI remain in the services sector. And one of the most valuable parts of that service sector is law. Over the past decade or so, cloud technology has transformed the legal profession. But it’s really just beginning. And now artificial intelligence combined with that cloud computing stands to transform the legal profession yet again. So, what does that transformation mean for lawyers and their clients? Can Canadian innovators lead the charge? And can lawyers be the next profession to put AI into practice? This is Disruptors, an RBC podcast. I’m John Stackhouse. Today I’m joined by Jack Newton, a technologist who studied machine learning and is now building one of Canada’s most successful tech companies. Jack is the CEO and founder of Clio, a legal tech centaur. We’ll hear more about that term later. Based here in Canada with global scale. He’s also the author of a bestselling book, The Client Centered Law Firm, and the host of his own podcast, Daily Matters. Jack, welcome to disruptors.
Speaker 2 [00:02:23] Thanks for having me, John.
Speaker 1 [00:02:24] Jack, let’s start with the origin story for Clio. What was the spark?
Speaker 2 [00:02:29] So the spark was way back in 2007, and I saw the cloud was going to be this massively disruptive transformational wave in many ways. It was very reminiscent of what we’re seeing with AI today, where it feels like this is going to change everything. And to me, in 2007, this was fairly early in the cloud journey, but I saw companies like Salesforce starting to explode. I saw 37 signals and what they were doing with Base Camp, and I felt like there’s a massive opportunity here, and this is going to revolutionize technology in every industry. And reached out to my childhood best friend, Rian Gauvreau, and kind of shared this thesis with him. Like, the clouds are going to be big. What do you think a good application domain might be? Ryan at the time was working as the IT manager for Gowling’s Vancouver office, and for anyone that is unfamiliar with Gowling, it’s one of Canada’s largest law firms. At the time, they had about a thousand lawyers on staff, and Ryan’s comment was, this is right in my backyard. But I see lawyers really struggle with technology and don’t use it very effectively. And a lot of the software that they’re using is frankly, garbage. And I feel like this is maybe the space we should innovate in. So that was the spark for the idea behind Clio. And the question was, where do we want to apply this new technology? And discovered that legal was, you know, many ways, one of the last major industries to almost just ignore the internet revolution. Yeah, a lot of lawyers at the time were practicing like it was still 1980. And these lawyers that are doing such important work were not leveraging technology in a way that helped them be productive and impactful.
Speaker 1 [00:04:18] I’m glad you said at the time, putting it in the past tense, that lawyers and technology were a bit distant from each other. There may be some listening who say, that’s still the case. Let’s come back in a moment to where the legal profession is at in terms of its relationship with technology. But give us a quick sense. Jack of Clio today. So, oh seven. You see the cloud? Hey, you’re a kid from Edmonton, so you saw where the puck was going. Here we are in 2024. Where’s the puck? Where is Clio?
Speaker 2 [00:04:46] So we saw this opportunity 2007. Me and Ryan went away and spent the better part of a year building the product and had a beta to launch at ABA Tech Show, which is the American Bar Association technology event in Chicago in March of 2008. And feel like we got the timing exactly right, because there was maybe half the people that approached us saying we were insane, basically aiding and abetting professional malpractice by suggesting lawyers store their data in the cloud. And we had another half of the audience suggest or tell us they’ve been waiting for somebody to create this product for them, and they were so happy to finally have a beautiful, easy to use, powerful cloud-based product that they could run their practice in. And that was just to them in an epiphany.
Speaker 1 [00:05:37] It’s a problem, Jack, in those days, because legal documents obviously are among the most secure documents. None of us want our legal secrets floating around in the public domain.
Speaker 2 [00:05:48] Exactly.
Speaker 1 [00:05:48] And the cloud was a new thing. More vulnerable maybe back then than it is now.
Speaker 2 [00:05:53] But that’s exactly right. The cloud in those days was so new that many people had reservations about storing data in the cloud. Lawyers have, you know, very high bar for their level of professional obligation to their clients and ultimately to be fiduciaries to their clients data and make decisions that helps preserve the confidentiality of that data. So, our perspective at the time, John, was a pretty radical one, which was. We believe your data is safer in the cloud and safer with Clio than it is in your own on-premises system. And this was especially the case for the initial audience for Clio, which was solo and small firm practitioners. Unlike Gowling, which has an entire floor of it people, they did not have any level of IT support. And what Ryan and I were really surprised by, by the way, was that the solo Small Firms segment is actually the majority of the legal market. 80% of lawyers practice in firms of ten lawyers or less, and that a full half of all lawyers practice as solos.
Speaker 1 [00:07:05] So help us understand how cloud computing. And then we’ll get into AI. But how cloud computing helps lawyers do things. Yes, more efficiently. Probably. Most people can figure that out. But how does it start to change the practice of law?
Speaker 2 [00:07:20] So number one, it makes real technological power available to all of those solos and small firms that I described earlier. They were this kind of ignored segment of the market. Even if they wanted to buy one of these on-premise products, they often couldn’t make the economics and the onboarding process work in the sense that these products were often $1,000, $2,000 to license just for one user. You had to buy a server, and you needed an IT person to support that server and maintain it and patch it. You needed to make a real investment to get up and running in this software. And then it was so complex, you needed a whole other set of investment to get trained on it and get running. And what the cloud changed about all of that was it was basically as easy as signing up for a magazine subscription online. It was a predictable, accessible cost, and you could deploy it in an evening. The more important technological transformation that the cloud has driven, though, it’s really helped lawyers reframe how they interact with their clients. And it’s also really dramatically changed how they interact and collaborate with each other. And what we saw over the course of COVID19 was the most dramatic transformation we’ve ever seen in the history of legal, in terms of both what clients expect and want from their lawyers and what lawyers expect when they’re working with each other and their professional staff. And the cloud helps enable this whole new world of effortless collaboration. It eliminates the need for that expensive triple A office space. And now we can see lawyers working from lower cost locations, working from their own home and delivering just as high quality, if not higher quality experiences to their clients that are similarly benefited by being able to access those legal services from their home or while they’re on their commute, or whatever the case might be.
Speaker 1 [00:09:18] Well, let’s come back to that point about it’s not just remote work.
Speaker 2 [00:09:22] Yes.
Speaker 1 [00:09:23] It is about the distribution work, which we got a taste of in the pandemic. And it’s still playing out this idea that work can be done by anyone from anywhere. It was Bill gates who said the pandemic would have been far worse in terms of its economic impact, were it not for cloud computing. But it also takes us with all technology. It takes a mind shift. It’s one thing to have the tools, totally different to use them. And you suggested off the top that lawyers and technology have not always been the best of friends. That’s changing significantly. But give us a sense, Jack in 2024. Scale of 1 to 10, where’s the law profession in terms of tech adoption?
Speaker 2 [00:10:04] I would say six today.
Speaker 1 [00:10:06] Not a great score. Probably most lawyers wouldn’t want to live with that. What are they missing?
Speaker 2 [00:10:10] No. And what I see, John, is a huge sea change happening in the profession as we speak. If you ask me that question in February of 2020, I probably would have said three. But also I think lawyers are sometimes unfairly blamed, call it for this lack of technology adoption when I think, you know, again, me and Ryan surveyed the landscape of what legal technology looked like in 2007 and said there is an ocean of opportunity to do better here. Like, these tools are not great. So we looked at that software, thought, we don’t blame lawyers for not wanting to use the software. It sucks. And so I think the tools have gotten a lot better over the course of the last 16 years. The need to embrace these tools has really gone from something that you only saw leading edge, technologically advanced law firms doing in 2018, 2019 to today, where it’s becoming more and more table stakes to embrace technology at a law firm. And law firms are starting to understand that the stakes are rapidly becoming existential.
Speaker 1 [00:11:24] Give us a sense, jack, of how AI is starting to transform law. I like to think of cloud computing crudely as the back office, and AI is moving more into the front office. It’s sitting there invisibly next to your lawyer, or next to your bank, or next to your doctor or whatever it’s doing. It’s not off in the back.
Speaker 2 [00:11:42] Yeah. We think about the divide in legal technology and even the day-to-day work of a lawyer as really orbiting around, on one side, the business of law, and on the other side the practice of law. The business of law. This is doing your billing, doing your invoicing, managing your leads, converting them to clients. And the practice of law is really about how you deliver your legal work product. This is writing a brief. This is doing legal research. This is summarizing a document for a client. And if you think about what the current generation of AI is strong at, it’s best at analyzing text and it’s best at generating text, when you have a large corpus of training data to train those algorithms on. And what is legal full of? It’s full of huge databases with large numbers of precedents of similar documents, and it’s obviously all text, so the use cases for AI on the practice of law side are almost limitless in basically every aspect of what a lawyer’s day to day job looks like can be augmented with AI. And on the business of law side, there’s similarly a gigantic opportunity to start look at all the data that exists in the practice of law, and start to generate some really profound and useful insights around, for example, what are my most profitable customer acquisition channels?
Speaker 1 [00:13:08] Jack, is this going to eliminate lawyers?
Speaker 2 [00:13:10] There is definitely some gnashing of teeth in the legal profession about AI eliminating the profession or having a profoundly negative impact on the profession. And I think that concern is misplaced. And if we look at the history of technological innovation, even rewinding the clock all the way to the first industrial revolution, what we see on a repeated basis, whether it’s the mechanical loom or whether it’s the assembly line building the model T, we see this lump of labour fallacy that there’s essentially a fixed amount of labor out there, and that AI will eat away at that fixed lump of labor. And what we saw in a more recent example that I think is very instructive to look at was the advent of the spreadsheet in the late 1970s and the impact that had on accountants. Did that destroy the accounting industry? It didn’t. What it did is it helped create a much more accessible tool that leveled the playing field for accountants and ultimately let accountants move up the value chain in terms of the value they were delivering to clients. So, what we see with this lump of labor fallacy, what will happen is AI will actually help lawyers become more efficient. It will help drive down the marginal cost of delivering legal services. It will help make legal services, in turn accessible to more people and in turn, lawyers and other legal professionals that are adjacent to those lawyers, because AI helped improve their marginal productivity. This will help make them more profitable while they’ve dramatically expanded the size of the legal economy.
Speaker 1 [00:14:51] That last point, though, is critical because it’s the difference between the fixed mindset and the growth mindset.
Speaker 2 [00:14:56] That is exactly correct.
Speaker 1 [00:14:57] The fixed mindset sees this as an efficiency play. I’m going to use this to cut my costs. That’s fine. The growth mindset sees it as a revenue play.
Speaker 2 [00:15:06] That’s right.
Speaker 1 [00:15:06] I was amazed at Davos this year. Those were clearly the growth mindset. Saw this as a generational opportunity to grow their businesses. Yeah might cut costs but this was really exciting for them. On the revenue side of things. How are you seeing that growth mindset take root in the legal profession?
Speaker 2 [00:15:24] It’s a real paradigm and mindset shift for lawyers because all through law school, they basically have the risk-taking nature of their personality surgically removed. They become what I call issue spotters, and they’re trained to walk into any scenario and spot potential issues. And then when they’re looking even at their own business and how they might improve it, all they can do is the same issue spotting. And I saw that in 2008 when we launched Clio. Well, what about what if you go bankrupt? What if you get hacked? What if the cloud is less secure than on premise? What if, what if, what if, what if? And that issue spotting just becomes almost debilitating at a certain point. And that, coupled with every aspect of the legal profession when it comes to arguing a case being oriented around precedent also creates a huge amount of gravity around the status quo, and doing anything new when there’s no precedent for it becomes enormously difficult.
Speaker 1 [00:16:36] You’ve articulated very well how lawyers can win in the age of AI, or prosper in the age of AI. I want to understand how Clio is going to win in the age of generative AI, but let’s start with where Clio is today, which is really impressive. I think you’ve got more than a thousand employees now, so congratulations on building that. As I said, off the top, you’re a unicorn so valued at more than $1 billion. But you’re also a centaur, which is a term applied to tech companies with more than $100 million of annual recurring revenue. Also really, really impressive. I think you’re doing that proudly here from Canada. Maybe just quickly give us a sense of looking back. Over the last decade, the smartest thing you did to, get you to where you are today.
Speaker 2 [00:17:24] Yeah. You know, it’s, series of decisions over the last decade plus that got us to where we are today. So we picked the market well, and we had our timing right. One thing you do successfully as a founder is sometimes fight off the pressures that are being applied to you along the way as well. And we were founded in 2008, ironically enough, when Ryan and I were living in different cities. So, we’re doing the work from home, distributed work thing way before it was cool. I was working at Edmonton, Ryan was working in Vancouver, we started a hiring team all over Alberta and BC, and when we started some of the early VC conversations in 2008, 2009, some of the first requests we got from those VCs were, hey, we like the company, but will, you move it to the valley, and Ryan and I really fended off those requests and felt like we can build a great company in Canada. And I’m really happy we made that decision, because I think we’ve helped prove, along with other great Canadian companies like Shopify and others, that we can grow incredible companies in Canada. And I feel very lucky that we narrowly avoided signing what would have been, with the benefit of hindsight. Catastrophically bad term sheets with potential investors either, you know, very low valuations or control provisions or other kind of structure that would have just led to an early death of the company or an early acquisition. On the note of what we’ve done. Right. Just from a people perspective, I think we’ve built a really great company culture that is focused on our customers, focused on supporting each other, thriving as a team and building a really collaborative, conducive environment for people doing the best work of their careers. We describe our culture as being human and high performing, where we see a real duality of both expecting high performance from our employees, but supporting them in getting there in a very human way. So I could go on about, you know, some of the bad decisions we made and good decisions we’ve made. But those are some of the near-death experiences we’ve had, coupled with a culture that is just focused on delivering long term value to our customers, that has helped us navigate 16 years now of very high growth.
Speaker 1 [00:20:06] Does the Clio story stop with law?
Speaker 2 [00:20:09] It’s a great question, and it’s kind of a perennial question we ask ourselves as we’re considering the strategic options available for Clio in the future. We see a very clear path to building $1 billion ARR company within legal. But beyond that, we see a huge opportunity to expand to other professional services over time, like accountants, engineers, consultants and so on. That, in fact, just as an aside was in mine and Ryan’s original business plan, we thought we could knock out legal in 2 to 3 years max and then move on to additional verticals. And what we discovered is legal is gigantic. It’s a huge market. There’s over $1 trillion of legal spend worldwide every year. So, what we’re trying to balance our ambition with is not wanting to get distracted by going into other verticals and continuing to focus on what we feel is an almost endless amount of opportunity, and still very much a greenfield opportunity in terms of even onboarding new customers in legal. Just to give you a sense of the opportunity, two thirds of lawyers in the US and Canada don’t use a practice management system like Clio. And I see, you know, for the next few years, we’ll be laser focused on legal. And as we move to, you know, billion dollars of AR and beyond, I think that’s where we may need to open up the aperture and think about what’s beyond legal for Clio. But I see a world where maybe that never happens.
Speaker 1 [00:21:53] Well, you’re also going to have your hands full with AI, which is not only a fantastic opportunity, it’s a big capital requirement.
Speaker 2 [00:22:00] Well, that that’s exactly it. And I think AI completely change that calculus as well, where, you know, we see an opportunity to double or triple our average revenue per account over time with the kind of value that AI will unlock. You know, you asked a question earlier that I don’t think I actually answered in terms of why Clio is well positioned to execute on the AI opportunity. And really the answer to that question is, as the system of record for a law firm, we’re what a lawyer uses day in and day out, where the first application they open in the morning and we’re the last application, they close at night.
Speaker 1 [00:22:44] How are you thinking through the competitive landscape in AI? The cloud giants are all over this, and they’ve got capital that most players can’t even dream of, as well as the technology clout. Where is Clio going to be in that landscape when you’ve got the Microsoft’s, Amazons, Googles of the world dominating the space? And they’re also attracting the capital now and the trillions of dollars. How do you differentiate yourself and compete in that exciting but somewhat daunting landscape?
Speaker 2 [00:23:18] I think it’ll be a flavour of what we see, even with call it the cloud era, and then the on premise era of software where the horizontal players like Microsoft will have a very hard to disrupt right to win for those horizontal applications. But what we’ve seen over the last decade plus is that there is an enormous amount of demand and appetite for vertically tailored applications and solutions that really deeply understand a customer’s needs and workflows and use cases. And AI is only going to exacerbate that situation and create an even bigger opportunity for vertical players like Clio. If your business plan is, I’m going to write a word processor that competes with Microsoft Word and competes with its generative AI capabilities. You’re going to be in for a tough slog. If your business plan is, I want to deeply understand how personal injury lawyers create demand letters, and how I could leverage data around all the claims that have happened across the United States in the last two decades, and use that to generate a more accurate demand letter that is closer to the maximum of what the insurance company is willing to pay. Microsoft is never going to touch that as a use case, but you’ve just unlocked an enormous amount of value for a personal injury lawyer when they’re trying to write a demand letter. So, I think that’s where the opportunity for entrepreneurs exist, is how do I take this generalized solution and target it to a specific vertical and create a high amount of value and high amount of impact within that vertical?
Speaker 1 [00:25:07] Jack, this has been a remarkable conversation. Thank you for your time. I wonder in our remaining minutes, if I can ask you to answer a few questions about the future. Fairly rapid.
Speaker 2 [00:25:16] Absolutely. Happy to.
Speaker 1 [00:25:17] Let’s start with the law firm of 2034. What does it look like?
Speaker 2 [00:25:22] The law firm of 2034 is absolutely cloud based. It is virtual. There’s no physical office. Everyone in that law firm is leveraging AI for probably what accounts for 90% of their day to day today, and they are in turn, able to handle an order of magnitude more clients than they did previously, and they’re able to deliver a higher level of service to each one of those clients. Thanks to the efficiency that both the cloud and I have enabled.
Speaker 1 [00:25:58] In 2034, will I be able to use ChatGPT? Eight, nine, ten whatever generation it is, as my lawyer?
Speaker 2 [00:26:04] You will use, I believe, likely some augmented version of ChatGPT that is supported by a lawyer that is easy to interact with, but that you can validate the output of with the lawyer that’s delivering that legal advice. At the end of the day, ChatGPT is an algorithm, and if you’re looking for a legal opinion, even in 2034, only a lawyer will be able to deliver that opinion to you. I think we’re we’ll see internet-based chat bots and similar tools leveraged is for consumers to better understand if they have a legal issue, and if so, which lawyer is going to be able to help them with that legal issue? And a lawyer that is technologically savvy, being tied into the back end of that ChatGPT API and be able to take that lead and probably jump on a video call without missing a beat after they’ve discovered they’ve got a legal issue.
Speaker 1 [00:27:04] So for all the lawyers who are still thriving in 2034, what will they have done over the next decade to be in that good place?
Speaker 2 [00:27:14] They’ll one have adopted the growth mindset you and I talked about. They’ll start thinking about how they can work backwards from people that have problems and how they can basically intercept a customer, a client, that has that problem, and they will leverage the cloud, they will leverage AI, they will leverage everything at their disposal. And I believe they will get more specialized in the type of problems they solve and solve those problems at scale.
Speaker 1 [00:27:48] Last question. Were in 2034, Clio’s ten times bigger as you predict. You’re still a Canadian company. What has Canada done to help you grow and reach that scale and keep you Canadian?
Speaker 2 [00:28:02] So I think Canada has an unprecedented opportunity to be the home of choice for people that are driving this digital transformation. We have every right to be the world leader in AI innovation, and we need more great companies growing in Canada. We need more incentives for companies to found and stay in Canada. We need to make it easier to attract talent into Canada. We need to find what Canada’s unique value proposition is, and make it the best place in the world for knowledge workers in AI to work. If we succeed at that, we’ve got an incredible opportunity to be the best place in the world to build an innovative company. And no other country has that kind of opportunity ahead of them.
Speaker 1 [00:28:56] Jack, great way to end the conversation. Two words for you. Keep going.
Speaker 2 [00:29:00] Thank you.
Speaker 1 [00:29:00] It’s really impressive what you’re building. Thanks for being on Disruptors.
Speaker 2 [00:29:04] Thanks for having me, John.
Speaker 1 [00:29:08] Clio is just one of Canada’s many AI success stories, and over the coming months, we’ll hear from other Canadian innovators who are exploring the new frontiers of generative AI and hear from them, as well as a host of Canadian businesses, on what it means for the Canadian economy, for the future of work, for business opportunities, and for society at large. It’s an essential conversation for all Canadians to lean into, so please join us.
[00:29:35] I’m John Stackhouse and This is disruptors, an RBC podcast. Talk to you soon.
Speaker 3 [00:29:43] Disruptors, an RBC podcast is created by the RBC Thought Leadership Group and does not constitute a recommendation for any organization, product or service. For more Disruptors content, visit our RBC.com/disruptors and leave us a five star rating if you like our show.
Category: AI, Technology and Innovation
Speaker 1 [00:00:01] Hi, it’s John here. Today we’re trying something completely different. I’m co-hosting and co-producing this episode with another pod, the ARC Energy Ideas podcast with my energy friends, Peter Tertzakian and Jackie Forrest. If you don’t know Peter and Jackie’s Show, it’s really worth listening to. They know a ton about energy. They get into great debates and host some of the countries and the world’s top energy thinkers. They recently invited me to join them to talk about our big new climate report, Double or Trouble. And I thought, hey, why don’t we double our impact and have them on our show too? So today you’ll hear some of my conversation with the ARC Energy Gang, and if you tune in to their pod, you’ll capture some of the same conversation and some elements we won’t get to in this episode. I wanted to get their take on clean tech and where we’re headed this year. Whether it’s hydrogen or EVs or heat pumps. It’s a much bumpier year for innovators, what with higher interest rates and consumer resistance. What should we make of Apple’s decision to pull back from the EV sector? Why aren’t we seeing bigger industrial projects in Canada? And what will elections mean in the U.S. and Canada and Europe to clean tech subsidies? Peter and Jackie have different views on those questions and a lot of other things, as do I. But we agreed this will be a critical year, maybe even a make-or-break year in the climate journey. And a lot of it will come down to technology and whether it can transform our economy fast enough. This is Disruptors, an RBC podcast. I’m John Stackhouse.
[00:01:45] I’m speaking today with Peter Tertzakian and Jackie Forrest of the Arc Energy Research Institute in Calgary. Peter and Jackie, welcome to disruptors.
Speaker 2 [00:01:54] Thanks for that, John.
Speaker 3 [00:01:55] Yeah, thanks.
Speaker 1 [00:01:56] I know we’re going to talk about our report, Double or Trouble, but I want to start first with your views of where we’re heading in 2024 in cleantech. Certainly it’s a lot harder in this higher rate environment. We’ve seen a big decline in clean tech stocks and a lot of concerns about the viability of some big, ambitious projects. Maybe broadly, Jackie, I can start with you. Are you feeling bullish or bearish right now about clean tech?
Speaker 2 [00:02:21] I think on certain sectors I’m feeling quite bullish, right. If you look globally, something like 90% of all the spending is really in a couple of categories. Wind, solar to these scale type investments. And EVs are really taking off this year. EVs actually total spending in EVs was higher than wind and solar renewable energy. So that’s an area where yeah, people are disappointed this year because maybe it grew less than they expected. But but they all grew substantially still this year. And of course, when you’re starting at a small base, it’s easy to have big growth rates as you get bigger and bigger. I think it makes sense that the growth rate slows at bit. So I’m still really excited. I mean, those are technologies that are ready. They’re economic, they’re scaling up, and I think you’re going to do quite well in them. And hey, the stock markets have fallen quite a bit from 2021. But I think a lot of that was they were too frothy. I think we’re getting into a point where maybe these businesses are valued a little closer to what they should be. Things like hydrogen, carbon capture, storage, even biofuels actually shrunk last year. So there are certainly segments that are much, much smaller. And just to give you a sense of something like 1.8 trillion spent on clean energy last year, how much do you think hydrogen was globally?
Speaker 1 [00:03:30] I don’t think I want to guess.
Speaker 2 [00:03:31] It was 10 billion. So I mean, these are just really small areas and it’s going to take a while to scale up and get experience. I’m excited by them, but I think there’s probably a little bit of hype in them too.
Speaker 3 [00:03:41] I think selectively bullish and selectively bearish is how I would come at it. Like if you look at wind and solar, they garner about almost half of global spending. And wind and solar farms make money. And then if you look at EVs, LED light bulbs, heat pumps those are at the consuming end. Like right at the end of the supply chain of the jewels wind and solar, right up front, it’s the midsection of the energy complex that is very difficult to finance right now. And that’s why hydrogen, I think, is garnering less, CCS all these industrial processes, because their cost curves are not coming down as compellingly as the front end of the energy supply chain and the back end of the supply chain. And by the way, retrofitting infrastructure is very, very expensive. And so the investor basically says, okay, that’s a risk. So I’m going to put my money somewhere else. So I call this a barbell transition. The front and the back end are doing well. It’s the middle that’s really problematic.
Speaker 2 [00:04:47] You know, the stuff in the middle. I would just comment. The costs are high now. The hope is that they come down just like wind, solar and batteries did. But it took ten years for that to happen for those technologies. So it may not happen overnight.
Speaker 1 [00:05:00] You talked about the risks of the barbell which include supply chain disruptions. Yeah. Do you think the market’s going to sort that out. Because there would be a greater incentive on one level to flow capital into that middle tier as the demand at the two ends of the barbell row. Is the market going to take care of that?
Speaker 3 [00:05:16] I’m not sure it is because capital markets migrate to where they can best make money. And so right now the money is going to other segments of the economy, which is very exciting, bullish with near-term returns. And also I believe the market is smart. Investors are sophisticated. They say something like hydrogen. That’s a 2030 story, right by the time the technology gets there. So okay, you know, I’ll wait till 2030. Well that becomes kind of a self referring lack of finance for the midsection.
Speaker 2 [00:05:46] Right. And another issue with the midsection is it’s like things like transmission and infrastructure for our electrical systems. There’s a lot of processes, regulatory processes. It is not really a free market. So I wonder if it can respond as fast as it needs to as demand starts pulling harder and harder. I mean, we’re we’re all talking about that, but I think that’s another constraint.
Speaker 1 [00:06:13] We should talk a little bit about EVs, because even for people who don’t own an EV, they’d probably have an opinion. It’s really interesting what’s going on out there. There is China’s excess production. We’ve seen Apple pull out and seeing interesting supply chain disruptions. What’s your feeling in the early months of 2024 as to where the EV journey is at?
Speaker 2 [00:06:35] There’s been a lot of noise if you actually look at the growth rate. Last year, it was pretty strong. I think it was about 18% and it wasn’t all BYD. So I think yes, there are certain manufacturers that are struggling, but I think overall the segment still growing at a very high rate. And I think we’ll see a lot of growth this year as well. We had the early adopters who are willing to put up with everything. You know, they’re willing to, take twice as long to get somewhere because they love the technology. Right. And I think we’re getting into the phase now where we have to make a product that works for people that aren’t willing to put up with everything, like Peter there.
Speaker 3 [00:07:09] Yeah. So with that in mind, I think what we’re seeing and what you’re going to see more of is a shift to plug in hybrids. I think for the next few years, plug in hybrids are going to start to really be dominating the EV conversation. But as battery technologies continue to get better with higher energy densities, faster charging times, etc., then pure EVs will come back. But I would say for the next few years, you’re going to see plug in hybrids is becoming the the focus of automakers and consumers.
Speaker 2 [00:07:44] Okay. So maybe the outlook is that we’re going to see growth. I certainly don’t think we’re going to get up to Canada’s goals of what is it by 2030, something like 60% of new vehicles are going to be EV. I don’t think that’s going to happen.
Speaker 3 [00:07:56] Depends how you define EV. If it’s a hybrid EV, I think even 60% is just pretty lofty.
Speaker 2 [00:08:03] Yeah, but it will grow. But maybe not as fast as some of those adoption rates. We have some growing pains, but I still believe over the long haul EVs are the way to go.
Speaker 1 [00:08:12] But that touches on the time horizon of all of this. Because even if you have 50% of new vehicles coming on to the road in 2030, they’re all going to be on the road in 2050 or certainly 2045. And if those are, hybrid, we’re therefore going to need, some form of oil. So it does challenge the mind in terms of thinking how we’re going to transition in the 2040s. Way, way off. But the seeds for that transition are planted every time a new vehicle goes on the road.
Speaker 2 [00:08:45] Yeah. But I would just say, to your point, if 50% of the new vehicles are electric or hybrid, 50% aren’t and will still be around in 2045. So we’ve done a lot of detailed modeling of the vehicle fleet globally, and I just see no way for oil demand to come down as some of these projections are just practically there’s just a lot of combustion engine machines out there, and it takes a long time to substitute them out. So I do think we’re going to have a lot more oil and gas being used in 2050 than some of those net-zero projections.
Speaker 3 [00:09:14] Yeah.
Speaker 2 [00:09:15] The biggest issue with electric cars is the batteries, the range, how fast they charge. I think that’s all going to improve a lot. It’s going to continue to improve and look better in five years, way better in ten years. And it’s going to make it get rid of those hybrids Peter. It’s going to be all electric.
Speaker 3 [00:09:29] So no, I think the biggest issue is perceptions of all of what you just described. And right now if you look at headlines and articles, the perception is that electric is challenging. That’s problematic because once people get something under their head, it takes a long time to get it out of their heads.
Speaker 1 [00:09:52] And I think one of the sadder parts of Apple pulling out is that it is such an extraordinary consumer products company and consumer experience company, and wow, would have been great to see what it could do to the vehicle experience and have that sort of competition. We need more of that in the market then gets people excited about these things.
Speaker 3 [00:10:12] I agree, but actually there is another important lesson in Apple pulling out, which is kind of obvious, is that electric vehicles are becoming a very low margin, cutthroat business, and the rest of Apple’s empire is high margin. So I can imagine the decisions around the boardroom table like, okay, how much money does this thing make? Oh, not that much. And the Chinese are moving in and going to undercut the market. Okay. Well, I think that sort of seals that.
Speaker 1 [00:10:46] Whether you’re bullish or bearish on clean tech right now, it’s going to take a lot more capital to get us on a path to net zero. And that’s the focus of our report. How do we get to $60 billion a year that’s going to be needed to finance the transition. And we’ll create, if we get it right, enormous opportunities. Peter and Jackie, let me hand the mic back to you. And we can get deeper into some of the issues.
Speaker 2 [00:11:09] Well, John, that’s a good intro actually to some of the themes of for the rest of the discussion. RBC recently released Climate Action 2024, an annual report on Canada’s net zero journey. It does say that we’re not spending enough on clean energy, and I think a lot of people probably realize that according to your first key finding, we are spending about 22 billion annually on supply side spending. But we should be spending closer to 60 billion a year in order to achieve goals like our 2030 and 2050 goals. So what is supply side spending? And give us a bit of a context for what’s being spent, where areas we’re spending and where we’re falling short to get to the 60 billion. We, as in Canada.
Speaker 1 [00:11:48] I think it’s important to stress that we are making progress as a country. Capital flows have gone from 15 billion to 22.5 billion, by our calculations, in three years. That’s a 50% increase. Most of that comes from government. And government investment, in our view, is going to be limited in the years ahead. So if we’re going to get to 60 billion, which is a more than a doubling, most of that’s going to have to come from private markets. So how do we develop the tools to mobilize the billions and trillions which are out there looking for these investment opportunities, if there’s good returns, but we can’t assume they’re just going to flow into Canada or flow into the sectors where the capital’s needed on its own. We’re going to have to help manage that.
Speaker 3 [00:12:34] Yeah. So I mean, what you’re trying to do is highlight where we’re at and also highlight that the money isn’t flowing enough to achieve decarbonization goals. What I want to ask you, then, is to what extent is the money not flowing because of the lack of profitability in some of these projects versus, say, the taxonomy, because we don’t have a labeling system and we’re paralyzed because we don’t know what’s green and what isn’t green.
Speaker 1 [00:13:00] Yeah, I’m a free-market person and have been all my life. You cannot engineer an economy. I’ve lived and worked in countries that have tried to do that. And the results are to be polite, suboptimal. You do need guardrails. You need tools like a taxonomy, but ultimately you need a thriving market. Free market, private market, attracting, generating, regenerating capital. And we’re not seeing that certainly at scale. That’s our opportunity in the back half of the decade as a country is to shift, not suddenly but shift from this public sector led transition, which is important in in all sorts of economic transitions. It’s almost always going to be led by public capital in the early days, de-risking situations for that private capital. But a lot of those risks have been, I don’t say eliminated, but reduced to a level that’s acceptable for private investors.
Speaker 3 [00:13:58] So let me challenge you on that a little bit, because look at the whole notion of even needing a taxonomy to inform investors how to invest, determine what’s green and what isn’t. And the notion of risk and investors understanding profitability or not. There’s this assumption, especially by the climate community, that investors don’t get it. And it’s almost a little bit patronizing to the investment community to say, you don’t get it. We’ve de-risked it. You need a labeling system. But I would argue, actually, knowing a lot of investors are pretty smart people.
Speaker 1 [00:14:37] You need a labeling system. I think everyone agrees on whether you’re selling groceries or selling financial products. A consistent, transparent labeling system is a good thing to have in any free market. It allows, buyers and sellers to work by the same definitions. But that on its own ain’t going to get you anywhere. What’s going to drive that capital and excite that capital is the opportunity for those kinds of returns, and the kind of innovation out there that I think is important to understand. The, you know, capital providers and business people are not out only for profit. Most entrepreneurs I know are trying to create something. They’re trying to build something. And they have to do it profitably. But it’s not just to make a buck.
Speaker 3 [00:15:23] Fair enough. To what extent is the issue, given the choice between artificial intelligence financing and the Nvidia effect, I’ll call it, versus investing in a fuel cell, option B. Well, you know, I’m going to hitch my horse to the AI wagon and other things that are just going through the roof. So therefore it’s very nice to hear about the labeling and everything else, but I’ve got a better option over there.
Speaker 1 [00:15:50] I’m so glad you raised that, Peter, because I think that may be one of the biggest challenges to the energy transition, and we should not underestimate what’s going on in global capital markets. I was lucky enough to spend a couple of days recently in California with a group of technology leaders, and it was awesome, but really eye opening to see what’s going on in that space and the ambition there to raise trillions of dollars. There’s a finite amount of capital in the world, and right now, those involved in the energy transition or in climate more broadly, I think need to be very thoughtful about how the competitive landscape has shifted and right under our eyes, right. Like this is real time. And then I’d add to that there’s another force out there which also may be underestimated, which is not to get too geeky here, but is around banking regulation in the United States and what’s known as the Basel end game, which is, if it goes through, going to require banks to set aside more capital to protect the banking system. So it’s an understandable concern. But what it may lead to is less bank capital being available for things like renewables.
Speaker 2 [00:17:11] So what can we do to in light of how scarce capital is, attract more? I mean, I see some big barriers in Canada. I think competition with U.S., their policies around clean energy investing are better in many areas and therefore our projects can’t compete. I think institutional capital is an issue, too. I mean, my experience has been while many want to invest in green, organizationally, they’re not really kind of set up to have pools of capital as big as you would think in some of these areas. So what do you see in terms of the barriers, right, in Canada to get that scarce capital and get it invested in the ground here?
Speaker 1 [00:17:44] You’ve touched on a couple of them. Certainly, our ability to make things more complicated than they should be is a profound challenge to the transition. We come up with rules upon rules and almost tilt to a European mindset versus an American mindset. And in a lot of us, we’re competing more with the United States then with Europe. So how do we simplify? That includes things like a different approach to regulations, which I know federal government is thinking through in terms of how to have one process, instead of asking people to go through the provincial process and then a federal process. So simple example how to not duplicate processes in what companies are trying to set up, how not to intentionally or unintentionally restrict the amount of reward potential in any particular project which you don’t see in the United States. Last point is, as a country, we need a few clear wins, especially in the private sector, in the energy transition space. So ensuring that those model projects, if you will, are able to move at speed and get to a scale and show the world, but frankly also show the country that we can do this, and then we’ll do it again and again, and we just need to create that cadence of success.
Speaker 3 [00:19:07] Yeah. So I mean, policy density and complexity is something that we’ve talked about on this podcast. And I certainly believe it’s a huge detriment to making decisions around a boardroom table. But speaking of boardroom tables, your report found that 96% of CEOs surveyed are confident they can hit their 2030 targets. In some ways, there’s sort of a disconnect here. Like the survey says, there’s a confidence amongst these high level decision makers, yet the money’s not flowing. There’s all sorts of other uncertainties that are talked about. Can you break down these 96% of CEOs and the seeming disconnect that I’m sensing in the report?
Speaker 1 [00:19:48] Certainly the CEOs I got to talk to are still confident they can hit their goals. There’s a concern that it may not be 2030 precisely, but they feel they’re within range of hitting it in a reasonable period of time. So there’s a number of variables at play. And it’s still a ways off six years. But we’re getting closer. And I think we’re getting very close to an important moment in time where collectively as a society, we’re going to have to say, can we get to 2030? And what are going to be the costs that we’re willing to absorb as a society to do that, or are we going to make adjustments? That’s going to be one of the great Democratic debates, I think, over the next couple of years.
Speaker 3 [00:20:40] Now let’s talk about that desire to spend more or not. Your polling concluded that two thirds of Canadians want to do more to tackle climate change. But as I interpret the conclusions, few want to pay for it. In fact, the report says, quote, our research shows most Canadians are not willing to change their lifestyles for high impact climate action. Can you expand on that?
Speaker 1 [00:21:01] In one way, we shouldn’t be surprised. I think that any retailer who’s been around will tell you that when you ask consumers, they’re usually not willing to pay for an additional cost. And especially in this inflationary environment, people aren’t willing to pay more for whether it’s an externality or just seen as an additional benefit to the raw value of that product. What we are seeing is that people do want climate friendly products and services, and that’s the opportunity for companies to think about whatever it is they’re making or providing. If it’s a service, to do that efficiently in a way that doesn’t drive up the price and then share the information with the market as to what the benefits are. Really good example underway is with heat pumps, which are accelerating really nicely as costs come down. But as consumers realize the extended value of a heat pump to their overall energy costs in their homes in different parts of the country, in New Brunswick, as an example. Sales are accelerating at a really impressive rate because the products are competitive, but there’s a broader economic benefit to say people are going to do things, consumers are going to do things that is in their economic benefit, and we shouldn’t be surprised by that. We should actually look for ways to ensure that there is an economic benefit in everything we do in the transition for consumers, and that’s what’s going to lead to that acceleration to scale.
Speaker 2 [00:22:31] Right? While making incremental improvements to show your product is better environmentally to me implies kind of a slower transition, though, right? Because you have to do it in a way that doesn’t increase your costs so much. Your report mentioned the potential for political change could reduce climate ambition and change greenhouse gas policy. So that’s for sure. In everyone’s minds right now, with the conservatives pulling strongly in Canada and Trump looking like a real candidate here in the United States to be the president in the next election. Do you think that’s already slowing investment on both sides of the border, in your view? The like wait and see what the new regime looks like.
Speaker 1 [00:23:10] And don’t leave Europe out of that calculation as well. European Commission elections this year. That could change some of the political dynamic there as well. It’s certainly causing a number of businesses to think about where the world or where their market may be 24 months from now, but I’m intrigued by the number who are staying the course because it’s what’s in their shareholders interests. There isn’t any apparent let up across the board. There may be in certain pockets, certainly in those sectors where there is that economic opportunity and where there is that economic opportunity, and this can be in energy systems, it can also be in agriculture and housing. I don’t think you’re going to see a different government change things radically if it’s good for the economy, if it’s good for the regions of the country, particularly where they may draw support. I wouldn’t be surprised if a conservative government came out with an ambitious climate strategy that’s different from the Liberal strategy, but has the same goals and aligns with a number of conservative governments at the provincial level that are all taking different courses, maybe have different ambitions or timelines, but are working towards the same goal, just have a different approach as to how to get to that goal.
Speaker 3 [00:24:27] I’ve always liken to say no investment equals no transition because we have to pay for it. I think your report, you’re basically saying not enough investment equals not enough transition. And so that leads to the conclusion. And I want to come back to these 2030 goals, that the ability to achieve a 40% reduction in emissions within five years seems now to be not that realistic. You’ve attended a number of UN climate meetings and attended all sorts of discussions. So do you think it’s realistic for us or for the rest of the world, for that matter, to achieve these things? And if not, I mean, shouldn’t we be thinking about some kind of plan B because there is a paralysis out there in terms of liberating capital to get things done?
Speaker 1 [00:25:18] Let me come at that from maybe a different perspective, Peter, but I want to speak to your first point about no investment, no transition, which is absolutely right. And one of my concerns for Canada is that we’re not attracting and generating enough business investment across the economy. It’s down over the course of a decade. That’s a fundamental challenge to the country that we are not attracting and generating enough true private sector, productive capital. And if we’re not doing it for the whole economy, how are we going to do it for the climate transition? So that’s point 1. Point 2 on what you call the kind of paralysis, I wouldn’t call a paralysis. I think at Dubai, we saw a real excitement around climate from a broad range of countries that are doubling down, tripling down on renewables. The Saudis and the Emiratis are determined to dominate green hydrogen, to dominate solar, to dominate carbon capture not just for their own region, but they see this as an export opportunity for the world. We should too. You know, we can go toe to toe with them. Maybe not at the same scale, but we’re really good at all those things. So that kind of excitement and private sector capital led transition, I think, is you call it a plan B? I mean, we’re getting into semantics here. Maybe it’s plan A plus or, asterisk. But I think the next plan, if you will, has to be around some of what we saw. Dubai, which is this animated capital conversation around energy transition opportunities around the world. But they’re here in Canada. So if we have a plan A, B or C, whatever it is, I hope it’s animated by that capital opportunity.
Speaker 3 [00:27:09] Well, I don’t want to sound too cynical here, but the Middle Eastern countries don’t have a taxonomy, to my knowledge, and they don’t have layers and convoluted policy.
Speaker 2 [00:27:22] Well, there’s a lot national companies too.
Speaker 3 [00:27:24] And they’re not nationalized. Yeah.
Speaker 1 [00:27:27] They don’t have democratic capitalism.
Speaker 3 [00:27:29] So, it’s not a fair comparison because we’re a democracy and there’s pros and cons. I’d like to speak largely pro, but it’s hard to compete against the authoritarian directives of capital from state owned companies. So I don’t know if that’s a fair comparison.
Speaker 1 [00:27:46] The US is the we’re talking about the I earlier I mean, the U.S. is competing in in AI and attracting and generating that kind of capital.
Speaker 3 [00:27:53] The policies in the U.S. are much simpler, although some would argue at the state level they’re not that they are very convoluted with regulation and all sorts of things that are inhibiting transition and things like electrical power and so on and so forth.
Speaker 1 [00:28:07] But thank you for saying that word simpler.
Speaker 3 [00:28:09] Yeah, no I agree.
Speaker 1 [00:28:11] Lets keep it simple. Keep it simple.
Speaker 2 [00:28:13] Yeah. No I think that’s a great take away. You’ve really hit on a lot of the issues and I will finish on that point for all those policymakers listening. Keep it simple. It will help drive more capital investment in Canada. So thank you for joining the podcast.
Speaker 1 [00:28:28] Peter and Jackie, thank you so much for having me on your show and for you being on my show in this kind of novel approach to podcasting.
Speaker 2 [00:28:36] Yeah, thanks.
Speaker 3 [00:28:36] Our pleasure.
Speaker 1 [00:28:37] Among my takeaways is that as much as we want to keep this simple, it is complicated, but we don’t have a lot of time. And if we don’t come to grips with this faster, yeah, there’s a risk that people are going to give up on it to. To your point, Peter, maybe the search for a plan B or whatever it is. You’ve also reminded me of the power of many of our sectors, including the oil and gas sector, which continue to power, pardon the expression, a lot of the Canadian economy, but a lot of Canadian innovation as well. And I’ve always enjoyed listening to your podcast. I hear from many of the great innovators, not just in Alberta but across Canada. When it comes to energy, we’re going to need that kind of ingenuity and hope the listeners get excited by the opportunities that are out there. Challenges, yes, but with those come some really cool opportunities that are going to help Canada thrive in the decades ahead. This is disruptors, an RBC podcast. I’m John Stackhouse. Talk to you soon.
Speaker 2 [00:29:38] Disruptors and RBC podcast is created by the RBC Thought Leadership Group and does not constitute a recommendation for any organization, product or service. For more disruptors content, visit our Bbc.com disruptors and leave us a five star rating if you like our show.
Orateur 1 [00:00:01] Bonjour, mon nom est John. Aujourd’hui, nous allons essayer quelque chose de complètement différent. Je vais coanimer et coproduire cet épisode avec un autre balado, soit le balado ARC Energy Ideas, en compagnie de mes amis du secteur énergétique, soit Peter Tertzakian et Jackie Forrest. Si vous ne connaissez pas le balado de Peter et Jackie, je vous incite vivement à l’écouter. Ils savent une foule de choses sur le thème de l’énergie. Ils ont des débats intéressants et accueillent certains des principaux penseurs du pays et de la planète entière en matière d’énergie. Ils m’ont récemment invité à me joindre à eux pour parler de notre nouveau rapport climatique intitulé « L’urgence de mettre les bouchées doubles ». Et je me suis demandé pourquoi nous ne pourrions pas multiplier notre impact par deux en faisant en sorte qu’ils participent également à notre propre balado. Ainsi donc, aujourd’hui, vous allez entendre une partie de l’entretien que j’ai eu avec mes amis du balado ARC Energy Ideas. Si vous êtes en mesure d’écouter leur balado, vous retrouverez une partie des mêmes propos et certains sujets que nous n’abordons pas dans le présent épisode. Je souhaitais connaître leur point de vue sur les technologies propres, en plus de déterminer dans quelle direction, selon eux, nous nous dirigions cette année. Savoir si l’avenir était à l’hydrogène, aux véhicules électriques (VE) ou aux thermopompes. Pour les innovateurs, l’année a été beaucoup plus mouvementée, compte tenu des taux d’intérêt plus élevés et de la résistance des consommateurs. Quelle conclusion devrions-nous tirer de la décision d’Apple de se retirer du secteur des VE ? Pourquoi n’y a-t-il pas de projets industriels de plus grande envergure au Canada ? Et quelles seront les répercussions des élections aux États-Unis, au Canada et en Europe sur le plan des subventions aux technologies propres ? Peter et Jackie ont des points de vue différents sur ces questions ainsi que sur une foule d’autres sujets, comme c’est également mon cas. Cependant, nous nous sommes entendus sur le fait que cette année allait être une année critique et peut-être même une année décisive sur la voie du parcours climatique. Et en vérité, l’avenir dépendra dans une large mesure de la technologie et du fait que celle-ci est ou non en mesure de transformer notre économie suffisamment rapidement. Vous écoutez Les innovateurs, un balado de RBC. Mon nom est John Stackhouse.
[00:01:45] Je m’entretiens aujourd’hui avec Peter Tertzakian et Jackie Forrest, de l’institut Arc Energy Research Institute, à Calgary. Peter et Jackie, permettez-moi de vous souhaiter la bienvenue au balado Les innovateurs.
Oratrice 2 [00:01:54] Merci, John.
Orateur 3 [00:01:55] Absolument, merci.
Orateur 1 [00:01:56] Je sais que nous allons parler de notre rapport intitulé « L’urgence de mettre les bouchées doubles », mais je souhaitais commencer en recueillant tout d’abord votre point de vue sur le sort que nous réserve 2024 dans le domaine des technologies propres. Manifestement, la situation est beaucoup plus difficile dans cette conjoncture de taux plus élevés qui est la nôtre. Nous avons observé une forte baisse des valeurs dans le secteur des technologies propres ainsi que de nombreuses préoccupations à l’égard de la viabilité de certains grands projets ambitieux. De manière générale, peut-être, Jackie, pourrais-je commencer avec vous. Êtes-vous actuellement optimiste ou pessimiste à l’égard des technologies propres ?
Oratrice 2 [00:02:21] Je pense qu’à l’égard de certains secteurs, je me sens assez optimiste à vrai dire. Si l’on examine la situation à l’échelle mondiale, quelques catégories s’accaparent en vérité quelque chose comme 90 % de toutes les dépenses. L’éolien et le solaire suscitent des investissements massifs. Et les VE ont vraiment pris leur envol cette année. En vérité, les dépenses totales consacrées aux VE ont été plus élevées que celles qui sont allées à l’énergie renouvelable éolienne et solaire. Voilà donc un domaine où, indiscutablement, certaines personnes ont été déçues cette année du fait que la croissance a été peut-être un peu moins forte que ce qui avait été prévu. Cependant, tous ces secteurs ont connu une forte progression cette année. Et, évidemment, comme c’est toujours le cas, lorsqu’on démarre d’une base relativement restreinte, on obtient facilement des taux de croissance impressionnants. Quand le secteur entreprend de se développer, je pense qu’il est raisonnable de s’attendre à ce que les taux de croissance ralentissent un peu. Je suis donc toujours très enthousiaste. En fait, je pense aux technologies qui sont prêtes, qui ont fait leurs preuves sur le plan de la rentabilité, qui se développent et j’estime que les résultats seront plutôt intéressants dans ce domaine. Et n’oublions pas que les marchés boursiers ont pas mal chuté par rapport à 2021. Mais il me semble qu’une partie importante de ce phénomène tient au fait qu’ils étaient trop effervescents. Je pense qu’ils se rapprochent d’un point ou peut-être ces entreprises seront valorisées à un niveau se rapprochant un peu plus de ce qu’il devrait être. Des secteurs comme l’hydrogène, la capture et le stockage du carbone, et même les biocarburants, se sont en vérité contractés l’année dernière. Il y a donc indiscutablement un certain nombre de segments qui sont beaucoup plus restreints. Et simplement pour vous donner une idée, si l’on pense aux quelque 1 800 milliards de dollars qui ont été engagés dans le secteur des énergies propres l’an dernier, quelle part de cette somme pensez-vous qui a été investie dans le domaine de l’hydrogène à travers le monde ?
Orateur 1 [00:03:30] Je pense que je ferais sans doute mieux de ne pas deviner…
Oratrice 2 [00:03:31] Le montant a été de 10 milliards de dollars. Ainsi donc, il s’agit indiscutablement de très petites sommes et il faudra un certain temps pour que ce secteur se développe et parvienne à maturité. Si ces secteurs m’enthousiasment, je pense qu’ils font peut-être également l’objet d’un peu de battage médiatique.
Orateur 3 [00:03:41] Pour ma part, je suis tantôt optimiste et tantôt pessimiste. En fait, si l’on s’attarde, par exemple, au secteur de l’énergie éolienne et solaire, ces deux volets s’accaparent près de la moitié des dépenses mondiales. Et il faut dire que les parcs éoliens et solaires sont rentables. Ensuite, si l’on pense aux VE, aux ampoules à DEL, aux thermopompes, il faut convenir que ces produits relèvent de la sphère de la consommation. En fait, c’est à l’extrémité de la chaîne d’approvisionnement que se trouvent les joyaux, des secteurs comme l’énergie éolienne et solaire sont au tout début de celle-ci. C’est d’emblée la partie médiane du complexe énergétique qui, actuellement, présente des difficultés sur le plan du financement. Et telle est la raison pour laquelle, me semble-t-il, l’hydrogène suscite moins d’enthousiasme, la capture et le stockage du carbone, tous ces processus industriels parce que leurs courbes de coût ne baissent pas de manière aussi marquée que la partie amont de la chaîne d’approvisionnement énergétique et que la partie aval de la chaîne d’approvisionnement. Et, soit dit en passant, la modernisation des infrastructures est en soi une proposition extrêmement onéreuse. De sorte qu’en fait, les investisseurs se disent qu’en effet il y a un risque. Et ils décident donc de placer leur argent ailleurs. Pour ma part, j’estime qu’il s’agit donc d’une transition en forme de haltère ou de barre à disques. Les parties amont et aval se tirent bien d’affaire, c’est plutôt la partie médiane qui pose véritablement un problème.
Oratrice 2 [00:04:47] Vous savez, en ce qui concerne la partie médiane, permettez-moi de formuler un commentaire. Les coûts sont actuellement élevés. Nous espérons qu’ils diminueront, tout comme ce fut le cas dans les secteurs de l’éolien, du solaire et des batteries. Mais pour que cela se produise pour ces technologies, il a fallu attendre 10 ans. De sorte que ce changement ne se produira pas du jour au lendemain.
Orateur 1 [00:05:00] Vous avez évoqué les risques associés à la barre à disques, dont les perturbations de la chaîne d’approvisionnement. Absolument. Pensez-vous que le marché sera en mesure de corriger cette situation ? Car, d’une part, il y aurait de plus grandes incitations à faire affluer les capitaux vers cette partie médiane, alors que la demande aux deux extrémités de la barre à disques augmente. Le marché va-t-il s’en charger ?
Orateur 3 [00:05:16] Je ne suis pas sûr que ce sera le cas car les marchés des capitaux s’orientent là où ils sont le plus susceptible de gagner de l’argent. Et, à l’heure actuelle, l’argent va vers d’autres segments de l’économie, qui sont très excitants et suscitent un certain optimisme grâce à des rendements à très court terme. Je crois par ailleurs que le marché est intelligent. Les investisseurs sont futés. Ils savent pertinemment qu’un domaine comme l’hydrogène sera pertinent en 2030, quand la technologie sera parvenue à maturité. En vérité, vous savez, j’attendrais jusqu’en 2030. Une telle attitude se transforme en quelque sorte en un manque de financement autogénéré pour la partie médiane.
Oratrice 2 [00:05:46] Très bien. Et un autre problème en ce qui concerne la section médiane rappelle ceux que représentent la transmission et l’infrastructure de nos systèmes électriques. Interviennent en effet une multitude de processus, de processus réglementaires. Nous ne sommes pas véritablement en présence d’un marché libre. Je me demande donc si celui-ci peut réagir aussi vite que nécessaire alors que la demande augmente. En fait, si nous évoquons tous ce sujet, j’ai l’impression qu’il s’agit d’une autre contrainte.
Orateur 1 [00:06:13] Nous devrions parler un peu des VE, puisque même les personnes qui en n’ont pas ont probablement un avis à ce sujet. Il est très intéressant d’observer ce qui se passe en fait. La Chine connaît une production excédentaire. Nous avons vu Apple se retirer du marché et nous notons également d’intéressantes perturbations de la chaîne d’approvisionnement. Quel est votre sentiment, en ce tout début de 2024, quant à l’évolution du parcours des VE ?
Oratrice 2 [00:06:35] Il y a eu énormément de discussions et de débats. Si l’on examine véritablement la courbe de croissance, l’an dernier, la croissance a été plutôt respectable. Je pense qu’elle s’est située à environ 18 % et BYD n’en était pas seule responsable. Je pense donc que, oui, si certains constructeurs éprouvent des difficultés, il me semble que, dans l’ensemble, le segment continue à croître à un rythme assez élevé. Et je pense que nous allons également observer cette année énormément de croissance. Nous avons connu les adeptes précoces qui sont prêts à tout supporter. Vous savez, ils sont prêts à prendre deux fois plus de temps pour aller quelque part parce qu’ils sont friands de la technologie. Bien. Je pense que nous abordons maintenant la phase où nous devons élaborer un produit qui fonctionne pour ceux d’entre nous qui ne sont pas disposés à tout supporter, comme c’est le cas de Peter, ici.
Orateur 3 [00:07:09] Absolument. En gardant cela à l’esprit, je pense que nous observons et que nous allons observer de plus en plus une transition vers les voitures hybrides rechargeables. Je pense qu’au cours des prochaines années, les voitures hybrides rechargeables vont véritablement commencer à prendre le dessus sur les VE. Cependant, alors que les technologies des batteries continueront à s’améliorer avec notamment des densités d’énergie plus élevées, des temps de charge plus courts, etc., les VE purs effectueront leur retour. Mais je dirais qu’au cours des prochaines années, les hybrides rechargeables seront au cœur de l’intérêt des constructeurs automobiles et des consommateurs.
Oratrice 2 [00:07:44] Très bien. Peut-être les perspectives laissent-elles entrevoir une croissance. Je ne pense certainement pas que nous allons atteindre l’objectif du Canada fixé à l’horizon de 2030, qui est, si mon souvenir est bon, 60 % de VE parmi le parc de véhicules neufs. Je ne pense pas que ce sera le cas.
Orateur 3 [00:07:56] Tout cela dépend de la façon dont vous définissez ce qu’est un VE. S’il s’agit d’un VE hybride, je pense que même cette proportion de 60 % est tout de même assez ambitieuse.
Oratrice 2 [00:08:03] Absolument, mais elle augmentera. Peut-être pas aussi vite que certains de ces taux d’adoption. Si nous connaissons quelques difficultés de croissance, je continue à croire qu’à long terme, les VE constituent la solution.
Orateur 1 [00:08:12] Cela nous ramène à l’horizon temporel de cette question. Car même si 50 % de véhicules neufs apparaîtront sur les routes en 2030, ils seront tous sur la route en 2050 ou certainement en 2045. Et si ces véhicules sont de type hybride, nous allons donc avoir besoin d’une forme de pétrole. Voilà qui met donc l’esprit au défi de réfléchir à la façon dont nous allons opérer la transition dans les années 2040. Voilà qui constitue un horizon très lointain. Cependant, les graines de cette transition sont plantées chaque fois qu’un véhicule neuf prend la route.
Oratrice 2 [00:08:45] Absolument. Mais je dirais simplement, pour faire référence à ce que vous venez de dire, que si 50 % des véhicules neufs sont électriques ou hybrides, 50 % ne le sont pas et seront toujours sur nos routes en 2045. Nous avons donc réalisé de nombreuses modélisations détaillées du parc de véhicules à l’échelle mondiale et je ne vois tout simplement pas comment la demande de pétrole pourrait baisser selon ce que prévoient certaines de ces projections. En termes bien pratiques, il y a encore énormément de véhicules mus par des moteurs à combustion et il faudra beaucoup de temps pour les remplacer. Je pense donc que, même en 2050, nous utiliserons toujours plus de pétrole et de gaz que ce que prévoient certaines des projections relatives à la carboneutralité.
Orateur 3 [00:09:14] Absolument.
Oratrice 2 [00:09:15] Le plus gros problème qui concerne les VE sont les batteries, l’autonomie et la vitesse de recharge. Je pense que tous ces aspects vont fortement s’améliorer. La situation va continuer à s’améliorer. Elle sera meilleure dans cinq ans et bien meilleure dans dix ans. Et à un point tel que, Peter, nous devrons nous débarrasser de ces véhicules hybrides. À terme, tous les véhicules seront électriques.
Orateur 3 [00:09:29] Ainsi donc, non, je pense que le principal problème tient à la perception de tout ce que vous venez de décrire. Et, à l’heure actuelle, si vous consultez les grands titres et les articles, l’impression est que la filière électrique n’est pas dépourvue de problèmes. Voilà qui est problématique car, une fois qu’on se fait une idée de quelque chose, il faut beaucoup de temps pour s’en débarrasser.
Orateur 1 [00:09:52] Et je pense que l’un des aspects les plus tristes du retrait d’Apple de ce marché tient au fait qu’il s’agit en effet d’une entreprise si exceptionnelle dans le domaine des produits de consommation et en matière d’expérience au consommateur. Il aurait indiscutablement été extraordinaire d’observer ce que cette entreprise aurait pu faire de l’expérience embarquée et susciter ce genre de concurrence. Nous avons besoin de plus de concurrence dans le marché car cela suscite l’enthousiasme de chacun.
Orateur 3 [00:10:12] Je suis d’accord. Mais, en réalité, le retrait d’Apple nous offre un autre enseignement important, qui est pourtant assez évident : les VE sont en voie de devenir un secteur périlleux et aux marges très faibles, tandis que le reste de l’empire d’Apple offre des marges élevées. Je peux donc imaginer que les discussions autour de la table du conseil ont tenu à déterminer, véritablement, combien d’argent une telle initiative pourrait rapporter. Et qu’en vérité, ils aient constaté que ces sommes n’étaient pas si considérables. Sans compter le fait que les Chinois s’implantent et vont saper le marché. Bien. Eh bien, il me semble que cela règle la question.
Orateur 1 [00:10:46] Que vous soyez optimiste ou pessimiste à l’égard des technologies propres, en ce moment, il faudra beaucoup plus de capitaux pour nous permettre d’atteindre l’objectif de la carboneutralité. Et tel est l’axe fondamental de notre rapport. Comment allons-nous parvenir à atteindre les 60 milliards de dollars par an qui s’avéreront nécessaires pour financer la transition ? Et si nous y parvenons, nous allons manifestement créer de formidables possibilités. Peter et Jackie, permettez-moi de vous redonner le micro. Nous allons maintenant traiter plus profondément de certains sujets.
Oratrice 2 [00:11:09] Eh bien, John, voilà en fait une excellente introduction à certains des thèmes qui seront abordés dans le reste de la discussion. RBC a récemment publié son rapport annuel portant sur le parcours du Canada vers la carboneutralité intitulé Action climatique 2024. On y précise que nous ne dépensons pas suffisamment dans le domaine de l’énergie propre et je pense que beaucoup de gens se rendent probablement compte de cela. Si j’en réfère à votre première conclusion clé, nous dépensons actuellement environ 22 milliards de dollars par an du côté de l’offre. Cependant, c’est plutôt 60 milliards de dollars par an que nous devrions dépenser pour atteindre des objectifs comme ceux qui ont été fixés aux horizons 2030 et 2050. Et lorsqu’on parle de dépenses du côté de l’offre, de quoi s’agit-il ? Et auriez-vous l’obligeance de nous donner un peu plus de contexte sur ce qui est dépensé, les domaines où nous dépensons et ceux où ne parvenons pas à atteindre l’objectif fixé à 60 milliards de dollars. Je parle de nous comme signifiant le Canada.
Orateur 1 [00:11:48] Je pense qu’il est important de souligner que nous faisons des progrès en tant que pays. Selon nos calculs, les flux de capitaux sont passés de 15 à 22,5 milliards de dollars en trois ans. Voilà qui représente une augmentation de 50 %. La majeure partie de cette augmentation provient des gouvernements. Et nous sommes d’avis que les investissements publics, soit ceux des gouvernements, seront limités au cours des années à venir. Ainsi donc, si nous voulons atteindre le seuil des 60 milliards de dollars, ce qui représente plus du double du niveau actuel, la majeure partie de cette somme devra provenir des marchés privés. Comment donc allons-nous développer les outils nécessaires pour mobiliser les milliards et les milliards de dollars qui, s’ils sont disponibles, pourraient fort bien se prêter à de telles possibilités d’investissement, pour autant que les rendements soient bons, sans que nous puissions pour autant tenir pour acquis qu’ils vont tout simplement affluer d’eux-mêmes au Canada ou se diriger vers les secteurs où les capitaux sont fondamentalement nécessaires ? Nous allons devoir contribuer à gérer cela.
Orateur 3 [00:12:34] Absolument. En fait, selon moi, ce que vous tentez de faire est de souligner la situation qui est actuellement la nôtre, en plus de mettre l’accent sur le fait qu’il n’y a pas suffisamment d’argent pour atteindre les objectifs de décarbonation. Si tel est le cas, j’aimerais vous demander dans quelle mesure l’argent n’est pas disponible du fait du manque de rentabilité de certains de ces projets par rapport à plutôt, disons, la taxonomie, parce que nous ne disposons pas d’un système d’étiquetage et que nous sommes paralysés parce que nous ne savons pas ce qui est vert et ce qui ne l’est pas.
Orateur 1 [00:13:00] Absolument, Je suis partisan du libre marché et je l’ai été toute ma vie. Il est impossible de manipuler l’économie. J’ai vécu et travaillé dans des pays qui ont tenté de faire cela. Et pour être poli, disons que les résultats sont sous-optimaux. Il faut prévoir des garde-corps. Il faut prévoir des outils comme une taxonomie, mais, en définitive, c’est un marché prospère qui est nécessaire. Un marché libre, un marché privé, qui attire, génère et régénère du capital. Et nous n’observons certainement pas cela à une échelle suffisante. Telle est l’occasion qui s’offre à nous au cours de la deuxième moitié de la décennie en tant que pays d’opérer une transition, non pas soudainement, mais progressivement, délaissant une transition menée par le secteur public, qui s’avère importante dans une foule de contextes de transition économique. Dans la quasi-totalité des cas, au tout début, les transitions économiques sont menées par les capitaux publics, alors que l’objectif est de réduire les risques pour ces capitaux privés. Mais il se trouve que bon nombre de ces risques n’ont pas pour ainsi dire été éliminés, mais ramenés à un niveau qui est acceptable pour les investisseurs privés.
Orateur 3 [00:13:58] Permettez-moi donc de vous relancer un peu sur ce sujet puisque, si l’on s’attarde même à la notion selon laquelle il s’avère nécessaire de compter sur une taxonomie pour informer les investisseurs quant à la manière d’investir, déterminer ce qui est vert et ce qui ne l’est pas… Et la notion du risque et des investisseurs qui comprennent ou non ce qu’est la rentabilité. En effet, nous nous retrouvons dans une situation selon laquelle prévaut une hypothèse, notamment dans la communauté climatique, selon laquelle les investisseurs ne comprennent tout simplement pas de quoi il s’agit. Et cette approche relève pratiquement légèrement de la condescendance envers la communauté des investisseurs quand on leur laisse croire qu’ils ne comprennent tout simplement pas. Nous avons atténué les risques. Il faut un système d’étiquetage. Mais, en vérité, je ferais valoir que beaucoup d’investisseurs sont des gens plutôt intelligents.
Orateur 1 [00:14:37] Il faut prévoir un système d’étiquetage. Je pense que tout le monde peut s’entendre sur ce fait, que l’objectif soit de vendre des produits d’épicerie ou des produits financiers. En effet, un système d’étiquetage cohérent et transparent constitue une bonne chose dans tout marché libre. Un tel système permet aux acheteurs et aux vendeurs d’adopter les mêmes définitions. Mais, en soi, cela ne nous mène nulle part. Ce qui permettra de stimuler ce capital et de l’attirer tient à la possibilité d’obtenir ce genre de rendement, et ce type d’innovation… il me semble qu’il est important de bien comprendre, vous savez, que les bailleurs de fonds et les hommes d’affaires ne cherchent pas simplement à faire des bénéfices. La plupart des entrepreneurs que je connais essaient de créer quelque chose. Ils essaient de construire quelque chose. Et ils doivent y parvenir de manière rentable. Leur seul objectif n’est pas de gagner de l’argent.
Orateur 3 [00:15:23] Très bien. Dans quelle mesure l’enjeu consiste-t-il, compte tenu du choix qui s’offre entre l’intelligence artificielle (IA), le financement et, disons, ce que je pourrais qualifier d’effet Nvidia, et le fait d’investir dans une pile à combustible, qui constituerait l’option B… Eh bien, vous savez, je vais plutôt me tourner vers le vecteur que représente l’IA et les autres domaines qui ne font que monter en flèche. Par conséquent, s’il est très intéressant d’entendre parler de la question de l’étiquetage et de tout le reste, s’offre à moi une meilleure option.
Orateur 1 [00:15:50] Je suis absolument ravi que vous ayez soulevé cette question, Peter, parce que je pense qu’il peut s’agir là de l’un des principaux défis sur le plan de la transition énergétique, et que nous ne devrions pas sous-estimer ce qui se passe sur les marchés financiers du monde entier. J’ai récemment eu la chance de passer quelques jours en Californie en compagnie d’un groupe de leaders du domaine de la technologie. Ce séjour a été absolument formidable, mais il fut tout à fait révélateur de voir ce qui se passe dans ce secteur et l’ambition qui caractérise ce milieu de rassembler des milliards de dollars. Il existe dans le monde une quantité finie de capitaux et, actuellement, ceux qui participent à la transition énergétique ou à la question du climat de manière plus générale doivent, selon moi, réfléchir attentivement à la façon dont le paysage concurrentiel a changé, et ce, même sous nos yeux, n’est-ce pas ? Tout cela se passe en temps réel. J’ajouterais par ailleurs qu’il existe une autre force dont il se peut fort bien que nous la sous-estimions et qui, sans trop entrer dans le détail, concerne la réglementation bancaire aux États-Unis et ce que l’on qualifie de la vision cible de Bâle, qui, si cette mesure devait se concrétiser, exigerait désormais des banques qu’elles mettent de côté davantage de capitaux pour protéger le système bancaire. Voilà qui constitue indéniablement une préoccupation tout à fait compréhensible. Mais si tel devait être le cas, cela signifierait qu’il y aurait moins de capitaux bancaires pouvant être consacrés à des choses comme les énergies renouvelables.
Oratrice 2 [00:17:11] Que pouvons-nous donc faire compte tenu de la rareté des capitaux pour en attirer plus ? En fait, je perçois un certain nombre d’obstacles importants au Canada. Je pense à la concurrence avec les États-Unis, au fait que leurs politiques en matière d’investissement dans les énergies propres sont préférables à de nombreux égards et que, par conséquent, nos projets ne peuvent pas rivaliser avec les leurs. Je pense que la question du capital institutionnel constitue également un problème. Pour ma part, j’observe que, si nombreux sont ceux qui souhaitent investir dans l’énergie verte, sur le plan organisationnel, il ne s’agit pas de ceux qui disposent véritablement des réserves de capitaux aussi importantes qu’on penserait que c’est le cas dans certains de ces domaines. Par conséquent, que percevez-vous, en ce qui concerne la question des obstacles au Canada, pour obtenir ces capitaux rares et faire en sorte qu’ils puissent être investis ici ?
Orateur 1 [00:17:44] Vous venez d’en aborder quelques-uns. Manifestement, notre capacité de rendre les choses beaucoup plus compliquées qu’elles devraient l’être constitue un enjeu majeur sur le plan de la transition. Nous ne cessons d’élaborer des règles qui viennent s’ajouter à des règles déjà existantes, et cela a pour conséquence que nous adoptons en quelque sorte une mentalité plus européenne qu’américaine. Et pour plusieurs d’entre nous, nous livrons davantage concurrence aux États-Unis qu’à l’Europe. Si tel est donc le cas, comment pouvons-nous nous y prendre pour simplifier ? Doivent notamment être considérés des aspects tels qu’une approche différente à l’égard de la réglementation, dont je pense que le gouvernement fédéral y songe, dans la mesure où il s’interroge sur la façon de s’y prendre pour implanter un seul processus plutôt que d’inviter chacun à se soumettre à un processus provincial, puis à un processus fédéral. Ainsi donc, un exemple simple consisterait à ne pas dédoubler les processus associés au fait que les entreprises tentent de se mettre sur pied, comment ne pas restreindre intentionnellement ou non intentionnellement l’étendue du potentiel de retombées dans un projet en particulier, ce que l’on ne retrouve pas aux États-Unis. Enfin, pour conclure, à titre de pays, nous avons besoin d’un certain nombre de réussites franches, notamment dans le secteur privé et dans le domaine de la transition énergétique. Ainsi, veiller à ce que ces projets modèles, pour ainsi dire, soient en mesure d’avancer rapidement, d’atteindre une échelle appropriée et démontrer non seulement au monde entier, mais également au pays, que nous sommes en mesure de le faire, puis de répéter cette expérience encore et encore, en plus de tout simplement parvenir à créer cet enchaînement de réussites.
Orateur 3 [00:19:07] Absolument. En fait, pour ma part, j’estime que la densité et la complexité des politiques sont des aspects dont nous avons déjà parlé dans ce balado. Et je crois fermement que cela nuit énormément à la prise de décision au niveau des conseils d’administration. Mais, puisqu’il est question de conseil d’administration, votre rapport révèle que 96 % des chefs de la direction interrogés estiment être en mesure d’atteindre leurs cibles pour 2030. D’une certaine manière, on observe ici une certaine forme de double discours. D’une part, comme le souligne le sondage, on observe une certaine confiance parmi les décideurs de haut niveau, mais l’argent n’est pas disponible. Il existe également une foule d’autres facteurs d’incertitude dont nous avons déjà parlé. Auriez-vous l’obligeance de nous présenter de manière plus détaillée ces 96 % des chefs de la direction et de parler de ce double discours apparent que je semble percevoir à la lecture du rapport ?
Orateur 1 [00:19:48] Indiscutablement, les chefs de la direction avec qui j’ai eu l’occasion de parler demeurent convaincus du fait qu’ils sont en mesure d’atteindre leurs cibles ou leurs objectifs. Si certains craignent qu’ils ne puissent y arriver précisément en 2030, ils sont d’avis qu’ils pourront les atteindre dans un délai raisonnable. Interviennent un certain nombre de variables. Et il faut aussi souligner que cette échéance ne surviendra que dans six ans. Mais nous nous rapprochons de la ligne d’arrivée. Et je pense que nous nous approchons de très près d’un moment important où, collectivement, en tant que société, nous allons devoir nous demander si nous pouvons atteindre les objectifs de 2030. Et, si oui, quels seront les coûts que nous serons disposés à absorber en tant que société pour ce faire ou si nous procéderons à des ajustements. Voilà qui constituera l’un des grands débats démocratiques qui, selon moi, marqueront les prochaines années.
Orateur 3 [00:20:40] Passons maintenant au désir ou non de dépenser plus. Votre sondage en vient à la conclusion que deux tiers des Canadiens souhaitent en faire davantage pour lutter contre les changements climatiques. Mais si j’interprète les conclusions comme il se doit, rares sont ceux qui sont prêts à payer pour cela. En fait, le rapport affirme, pour le citer mot à mot : « En fait, nos recherches révèlent que la plupart des Canadiens ne sont pas prêts à changer leur mode de vie pour participer à une action climatique à forte incidence. » Pourriez-vous élaborer sur ce sujet ?
Orateur 1 [00:21:01] D’une certaine manière, nous ne devrions pas être surpris. Je pense que tous les détaillants qui existent depuis un moment déjà vous diront que, lorsque vous sondez les consommateurs, ils ne sont généralement pas disposés à défrayer quelque coût supplémentaire que ce soit. Et notamment dans une telle conjoncture inflationniste. En effet, les gens ne sont pas disposés à payer plus, qu’il s’agisse d’un coût externe ou tout simplement d’un avantage additionnel par rapport à la valeur brute du produit. Nous observons que chacun souhaite obtenir des produits et des services respectueux du climat et que s’offre ainsi aux entreprises l’occasion de réfléchir aux produits qu’elles fabriquent ou aux services qu’elles fournissent. S’il s’agit d’un service, elles doivent s’interroger sur la façon de faire cela d’une manière efficiente qui n’entraîne pas une hausse des prix, avant de communiquer au marché l’information sur la nature des avantages. Un excellent exemple, actuellement, concerne les thermopompes, qui connaissent une poussée intéressante alors que leurs coûts baissent. Cependant, les consommateurs prennent conscience de la valeur accrue d’une thermopompe par rapport à leurs coûts énergétiques globaux chez eux dans différentes parties du pays. Ainsi, à titre d’exemple, au Nouveau-Brunswick, les ventes s’accélèrent à un rythme tout à fait impressionnant parce que les produits sont concurrentiels. Cependant, intervient également un avantage économique plus large. Ce qui consiste à dire que les gens vont poser certains gestes, que les consommateurs vont poser certains gestes qui sont à leur avantage sur le plan économique, et nous ne devrions pas être surpris de cela. Nous devrions en fait trouver des moyens de veiller à ce que chaque geste que nous posons dans le contexte de la transition présente un avantage économique pour les consommateurs, et c’est de cette façon que nous pourrons envisager une accélération du développement.
Oratrice 2 [00:22:31] Absolument. Bien que le fait d’apporter des améliorations progressives pour me démontrer que votre produit est meilleur sur le plan environnemental engendre cependant une transition plus lente, n’est-ce pas ? Parce que vous devez agir d’une manière qui n’entraîne pas une trop forte augmentation de vos coûts. Votre rapport signale qu’il se pourrait qu’un changement politique réduise les ambitions climatiques et modifie les politiques en matière de gaz à effet de serre. Voilà qui est indiscutable. Dans l’esprit de chacun, en ce moment, alors que les conservateurs se tirent plutôt bien d’affaire au Canada et que Trump apparaît comme un candidat sérieux, ici, aux États-Unis, pour remporter la présidentielle au terme des prochaines élections. Pensez-vous que cette réalité freine déjà les investissements des deux côtés de la frontière ? Alors que l’on adopterait plutôt une position d’attente en souhaitant en apprendre plus sur ce à quoi ressemblera le prochain régime.
Orateur 1 [00:23:10] Et il ne faut pas non plus laisser l’Europe en dehors de cette équation. Sont prévues, cette année, des élections à la Commission européenne. Voilà qui pourrait également altérer une certaine partie de la dynamique politique dans cette région. Manifestement, cela amène un certain nombre d’entreprises à réfléchir à la situation dans laquelle pourrait se retrouver le monde ou leur marché dans 24 mois. Cependant, je suis intrigué par le nombre de celles qui maintiennent le cap, car c’est dans l’intérêt de leurs actionnaires. Nous n’observons apparemment pas de répit généralisé. Peut-être y en a-t-il un dans certaines poches, manifestement dans ces secteurs où l’on retrouve ces débouchés économiques et notamment, peut-être, dans les systèmes énergétiques, mais cela pourrait également être le cas en agriculture et en matière de logement. Je ne pense pas qu’un gouvernement différent changera les choses de manière radicale si cela est souhaitable pour l’économie, si cela est souhaitable pour les régions du pays, et ce, notamment dans celles d’où ils tirent leur soutien. Je ne serais pas surpris qu’un gouvernement conservateur présente une stratégie climatique ambitieuse différente de celle du parti libéral, mais dont les objectifs seraient identiques et qui cadrerait avec celle qu’un certain nombre de gouvernements conservateurs provinciaux… Si ceux-ci suivent tous des voies différentes, peut-être ont-ils des ambitions ou des échéanciers différents, mais ils tendent tous vers un même objectif. Seules leur approche et la façon d’atteindre cet objectif diffèrent.
Orateur 3 [00:24:27] J’ai toujours aimé dire que l’absence d’investissement est synonyme d’absence de transition parce que nous devons tous payer pour cette dernière. Je pense que, dans votre rapport, vous dites en fait que des investissements insuffisants sont synonymes d’une transition insuffisante. Et voilà qui nous amène à la conclusion. J’aimerais, si vous le voulez bien, revenir à ces objectifs de 2030, c’est-à-dire à cette capacité d’atteindre un taux de réduction de 40 % des émissions dans les cinq ans et qui semble actuellement ne pas être véritablement réaliste. Vous avez participé à un certain nombre de réunions sur le thème du climat organisées par les Nations Unies, en plus de prendre part à une foule de discussions. Pensez-vous qu’il soit réaliste, pour nous comme pour le reste du monde d’ailleurs, d’atteindre ces objectifs ? Et si tel n’est pas le cas, ne devrions-nous pas penser en quelque sorte à une forme de plan B du fait de l’existence d’une certaine paralysie quant au déblocage des capitaux nécessaires pour faire avancer les choses ?
Orateur 1 [00:25:18] Permettez-moi d’envisager cette question peut-être sous un angle différent, Peter, mais j’aimerais revenir au premier point que vous avez soulevé au sujet de l’absence d’investissement, de l’absence de transition, ce qui est tout à fait vrai. Et l’une de mes préoccupations en ce qui concerne le Canada est que nous n’attirons ni ne générons suffisamment d’investissements commerciaux au niveau de l’ensemble de l’économie. Nous observons une baisse depuis une décennie. Le fait que nous n’attirons ni ne générons suffisamment de véritable capital productif émanant du secteur privé constitue un enjeu fondamental pour le pays. Et si nous ne le faisons pas pour l’ensemble de l’économie, comment allons-nous nous y prendre pour que cela soit le cas en ce qui concerne la transition climatique ? Voilà donc ce qu’il en est du premier point. En ce qui concerne le deuxième point, qui fait référence à ce que vous estimez être une forme de paralysie, je ne qualifierais pas cela de paralysie. Je pense qu’à Dubaï, nous avons observé un véritable enthousiasme autour de la question du climat de la part d’un large éventail de pays qui ont entrepris de doubler, voire de tripler leur intérêt à l’égard des énergies renouvelables. Les Saoudiens et les Émiratis sont déterminés à dominer le jeu en ce qui concerne l’hydrogène vert, l’énergie solaire et la capture du carbone, et ce, non seulement pour leur propre région car ils perçoivent cela comme un débouché d’exportation pour le monde entier. Telle devrait être également notre position. Vous savez, nous pouvons facilement les affronter sur ce terrain. Peut-être pas à la même échelle, mais nous nous tirons extrêmement bien d’affaire dans ces domaines. De sorte que ce type d’enthousiasme et cette transition menée par du capital du secteur privé constitueraient, si je comprends bien, ce que vous estimez être un plan B ? En vérité, nous plongeons ici dans ce qui relève de la pure sémantique. Peut-être s’agit-il plutôt d’un plan A+ ou d’un plan assorti d’un astérisque. Mais si vous me le permettez, il me semble que le prochain plan devrait s’articuler autour de certains des éléments que nous avons pu observer à Dubaï, soit des échanges animés sur les possibilités de transition énergétique à travers le monde et faisant intervenir le capital. Mais celles-ci se retrouvent également ici au Canada. Par conséquent, si nous avons un plan A, un plan B ou un plan C, quelle qu’en soit la désignation, j’espère qu’il sera animé par cette opportunité qui concerne le capital.
Orateur 3 [00:27:09] Eh bien, je ne voudrais pas paraître trop cynique ici en la matière, mais les pays du Moyen-Orient n’ont à ma connaissance ni taxonomie ni niveaux ni politique ambiguë…
Oratrice 2 [00:27:22] Eh bien, il y a également beaucoup d’entreprises nationales.
Orateur 3 [00:27:24] Et elles ne sont pas nationalisées. N’est-ce pas ?
Orateur 1 [00:27:27] Ils ne connaissent pas le capitalisme démocratique.
Orateur 3 [00:27:29] De sorte qu’il ne s’agit pas là d’une comparaison juste parce que nous vivons en démocratie et que cela présente à la fois des avantages et des inconvénients. Je suis d’avis qu’il y a surtout des avantages, mais il est difficile de rivaliser avec les directives autoritaires du capital d’entreprises publiques. De sorte que je ne sais pas véritablement si nous sommes ici en présence d’une comparaison juste.
Orateur 1 [00:27:46] En ce qui concerne les États-Unis, dont nous parlions plus tôt, il faut reconnaître que ce pays livre concurrence dans le domaine de l’IA et qu’il parvient à attirer et à générer ce type de capital.
Orateur 3 [00:27:53] Les politiques américaines sont beaucoup plus simples, bien que certains feraient valoir qu’au niveau des États elles ne le sont pas, qu’elles sont marquées au sceau de la réglementation et d’une foule d’autres choses qui entravent la transition, de même que des aspects comme l’électricité, et ainsi de suite.
Orateur 1 [00:28:07] Mais merci d’avoir cité cette formule « plus simples ».
Orateur 3 [00:28:09] Absolument, non, je suis d’accord.
Orateur 1 [00:28:11] Gardons les choses simples. Restons simples.
Oratrice 2 [00:28:13] Absolument. Non, je pense qu’il s’agit là d’une excellente chose à retenir. Vous avez véritablement abordé de nombreux sujets et je me permettrais de clore sur ce point à l’intention de tous les décideurs politiques à l’écoute : faites preuve de simplicité. Cela contribuera à stimuler davantage d’investissement en capital au Canada. Merci à vous de vous être joints au balado.
Orateur 1 [00:28:28] Peter et Jackie, permettez-moi de vous remercier vivement de m’avoir invité à votre balado et d’avoir participé au mien dans le cadre de ce qui constitue en quelque sorte une approche inédite en matière de baladodiffusion.
Oratrice 2 [00:28:36] Absolument, merci.
Orateur 3 [00:28:36] Le plaisir fut le nôtre.
Orateur 1 [00:28:37] Parmi les conclusions que je retiens figure le fait que, pour autant que nous souhaitions faire preuve de simplicité, la situation est complexe. Cependant, nous n’avons pas beaucoup de temps. Et si nous ne parvenons pas à aborder cette question plus rapidement, se pose en effet le risque que certains abandonnent. Pour revenir au point que vous avez mentionné, Peter, peut-être la recherche d’un plan B ou peu importe la façon dont celui-ci est désigné serait à envisager… Vous m’avez également rappelé la puissance de plusieurs de nos secteurs, notamment le secteur pétrolier et gazier, qui continue à alimenter, si vous me permettez l’expression, non seulement une partie importante de l’économie canadienne, mais une grande partie de l’innovation canadienne également. Je dois dire que j’ai toujours été friand de votre balado. Il m’a permis de recueillir le point de vue de nombreux innovateurs, non seulement en Alberta, mais à travers l’ensemble du pays sur le thème de l’énergie. Nous allons avoir besoin de ce type d’ingéniosité et nous espérons que les auditeurs seront enthousiasmés par les possibilités qui s’offrent à nous tous. Manifestement, il y aura des défis, mais à ceux-ci seront associées de formidables occasions qui vont contribuer à aider le Canada à s’épanouir pendant les décennies à venir. Vous venez d’écouter Les innovateurs, un balado de RBC. Mon nom est John Stackhouse. Au plaisir de vous retrouver la prochaine fois.
Oratrice 2 [00:29:38] Le balado, Les innovateurs, est produit par le Groupe Leadership avisé RBC et ne vise pas à recommander une organisation, un produit ou un service en particulier. Pour retrouver d’autres balados de la série Les innovateurs, veuillez consulter le site RBC.com/Lesinnovateurs. Si vous avez aimé notre balado, n’hésitez pas à nous octroyer une note de cinq étoiles.
The RBC Women in Cleantech Accelerator Program works with MaRS to provide support to entrepreneurs that focuses on advancing their breakthrough ideas into clean, market-ready products with the potential for global impact.
To learn more about:
The RBC Women in Cleantech Accelerator Program, click here.
Speaker 1 [00:00:01] Hi, it’s John here. Today we’re going to do things a bit differently. We’re coming up to International Women’s Day, and for this episode, we’re speaking with some innovative women who are leading the charge in Canadian clean tech. I’m joined by Alison Nankivell, the incoming CEO of MaRS Discovery District here in Toronto. MaRS is North America’s largest urban innovation hub and a nonprofit that provides direct support for startups, enabling a community of innovators to accelerate adoption of high impact solutions to some of the world’s most pressing issues. We’re at a roundtable here at Royal Bank Plaza in downtown Toronto, speaking with some of those entrepreneurs who are also part of the RBC Women in Clean Tech Accelerator program. Alison and I are joined by Myra Arshad, the CEO of ALT TEX, which essentially turns food into fabric. We’ll hear a lot more about that. Natalie Ashdown, the COO of Evoco which is focused on sustainable products. Think about using plant based chemistry for all the products we know and use in our daily lives. And Jackie Hutchings, the CRO of Friendlier, which is out to eliminate single plastics in food delivery. This is Disruptors an RBC podcast. I’m John Stackhouse.
Speaker 1 [00:01:25] Alison, it’s great to be with you.
Speaker 2 [00:01:27] Thanks for inviting me, John, and I’m delighted to be here with an incredible set of women.
Speaker 1 [00:01:31] And congratulations on your new role. You’re not yet officially started, but, you’re the new leader at MaRS. I want to talk first, Alison, about how you got started in finance. Because before MaRS, you were at BDC leading a lot of their work in venture capital. And you’ve got a great career before that, ranging from EDC to Ontario teachers.
Speaker 2 [00:01:52] Yeah, it’s definitely been a wonderful journey working both internationally in finance and then domestically. But I’ve been so delighted that much of my career has brought me into the Canadian venture capital ecosystem. And then having the chance at BDC and now through MaRS, to work with so many incredible founders and startups. And so I’m very, very excited to take what was working only on the financing side now to having an opportunity as CEO to work in a much more holistic way with amazing community of people who make up our venture ecosystem.
Speaker 1 [00:02:23] And what inspired you first to get into finance?
Speaker 2 [00:02:26] It’s always been a question of empowering companies to be able to do the things that they want to do, you know, all different types. Early days, I was working very much with export oriented companies, and the effort of them to try to tackle new markets, they need capital to do that. And then when moving into private equity and venture capital, it’s about having that risk capital to truly build a business. And all of those things take passion and vision, and it’s always a wonderful thing to be part of — realizing somebody’s vision.
Speaker 1 [00:02:56] What a great calling. And we’re going to hear from some of those entrepreneurs now. I’ll let them say a bit about their work and then we’ll open the discussion. Myra, let’s start with you. Welcome back to Disruptors. You’ve been on the podcast before. What inspired you to start your own company and ALT TEX in particular?
Speaker 3 [00:03:12] Yeah. Thanks so much, John, for having me again. ALT TEX is my way of making an impact on this planet. I think every entrepreneur can say that they would not feel fulfilled through a 9 to 5. So ALT TEX is my attempt to contribute to the planet in a way that’s a standard 9 to 5 corporate job did not allow me to previous to ALT TEX. As you know, ALT TEX is a biotech startup. We’ve created a biodegradable and recyclable alternative to polyester that’s re-engineered from food waste. Food and fashion are two of the world’s most polluting industries, and by combining them, I see that as a pathway that my team and I can actually make an impact.
Speaker 1 [00:03:49] Entrepreneurship is not 9 to 5. That’s one of my takeaways from this. Natalie, how did you get into the tech business?
Speaker 4 [00:03:56] I started my career in materials and process engineering, and, you know, I was lucky to get into environmental and sustainable or clean technology. I helped to build one of the UK’s first third generation bioethanol facilities, and that really shaped a lot of my career. My partner, who is the co-founder of Evoco, he is also a chemical engineer, and when we were expecting our first child, we battled to choose a mattress for the crib and every time we looked in the ingredients, we saw there was something there that we just couldn’t have in this mattress because we knew it was toxic. So not only did we realize that we could create materials that would reduce the carbon impact, but actually we could detoxify a lot of the materials that we use in our daily lives, our mattresses, the chairs we sit on, the cars we drive in and our clothes. So that’s where it started. That’s how we were inspired. We created the basic chemical building blocks. We started in the footwear industry, and by adapting those basic building blocks, we can go into many different applications.
Speaker 1 [00:04:54] Jacqueline, what drew you into tech?
Speaker 3 [00:04:57] Similar to Natalie, I was also a chemical engineer. I studied chemical engineering and worked in a number of manufacturing plants where you see the linear economy right in the flesh. You see us mass producing items that you know are going to be thrown away, and it just didn’t feel fulfilling. Similarly to what Myra said, I didn’t want to spend the rest of my life working a 9 to 5 contributing to this problem. While we see all of these climate issues that are arising. And so my co-founder Kailey and I sat down and we thought, what can we do to fix this? And we discovered the circular economy. And so we decided to use technology to make it really easy for businesses to offer reusable packaging in place of single use packaging, so that instead of using something once and throwing it away, we’re getting the full value of products before it’s been recycled or repurposed.
Speaker 1 [00:05:53] What great, inspiring stories. Alison, I want to turn the conversation to you because we’re approaching International Women’s Day. And as we all know, there aren’t enough women in clean tech. They’re not getting enough funding. You’ve been part of this for a number of years. What do you think we need to come to grips with?
Speaker 2 [00:06:11] Part of it is having those first few champions, both on the capital side as well as on the company side, who are really setting the examples. And that’s what we’ve been trying to do really hard at MaRS, working with RBC on our Women in Clean Tech Accelerator. I think it’s important for these incredible women to be the role models for that next generation of clean tech company creation for women, but also on the capital side. When I started in the business, which is too long ago to mention here, we probably had 5% at most of venture capital going to women. It’s gone up in the last ten years. It’s about 20% now in Canada, but in the US it’s only 3%. So there’s a lot still to be done in this area to allow women to have the visibility, the access to capital to really grow their businesses. And so what MaRS really wants to do is create a community of companies, corporates, capital allocators, those venture capital firms, those corporate buyers to really show that women who are leading these types of companies can succeed in just the same way. But it does take building a community. And that’s what we’re trying to do here with the accelerator that we’ve worked with you on.
Speaker 1 [00:07:23] Myra, you’re nodding your head to almost everything Alison is saying. What have been the challenges for you and what can you share, maybe as some insight and inspiration of how you’ve overcome those barriers?
Speaker 3 [00:07:34] The reason I was nodding my head so much, it sounds like Alison is saying, is there needs to be systemic change, right? Right now, the system is not favoured for women, but there’s a way to do it by planting the seeds. And each of us can be seeds that can show representation for other women to come into the space. And we expand from there. And I think the biggest challenge for me when starting was, could I even do this? Are there are there role models or are there success stories for me to look at that I can then follow in the footsteps of? And although there are some fantastic ones, those are not the ones that we choose to amplify. When you look at women who are running companies, it’s not a performance issue, it’s not a merit issue, it’s just a visibility issue. Even if there is a smaller amount of us, if we’re creating visibility like we are through this podcast and like what MaRS is doing with the Women in Clean Tech Accelerator, then more and more of the folks that are more junior to us see that representation, and they’re inspired to pull into that. So that that was the biggest challenge for me is just that imposter syndrome around, am I equipped to do this? And it was solved by finding supporters like the folks from MaRS and other ecosystems, that gave me the confidence and the resources to realize that there was no systemic difference or innate difference, and what I was able to do versus any of my counterparts.
Speaker 2 [00:08:48] And one of the things I was I was going to raise is this sense of community. That’s what I’m hearing around the table, that you’re building a network that you are becoming permanent colleagues, friends, contacts that are continuing to draw upon each other’s advice, experience. And I’m just I’m really interested to hear a bit more about that because I think for women, right. It’s been very, very difficult to have the same innate networks that have been on the male side of the venture capital world for some time.
Speaker 3 [00:09:17] Yeah. One thing that we’re always looking for is peers that are going through the same thing, because for me, all of my good friends are engineers and they work in plants, so they’re great friends, but they don’t understand what it’s like to try and raise capital or to fire an employee. But when you get into these communities like MaRS, you get to meet other founders in other spaces who they get it. And that can keep you going because you know, you’re going through something hard. They’ve been through something hard. We’re going to get through it together.
Speaker 4 [00:09:44] Yeah, I totally agree with you. Even working with Myra, you know, we work in a very similar industry. Often we can share some of the candidates for roles. I guess it’s exactly what you said. When on the clean tech program, we were able to discuss our HR issues, because that’s a big one for all of us. So having the programs that we have in MaRS and the network we have in Mars has been incredible for us, and we’re really lucky.
Speaker 3 [00:10:07] I have to add to that. And I don’t know if you girls will relate to this, but coming back to that imposter syndrome or lack of visibility growing up, I feel like we crave each other’s presence so much more, right? Because the norm is you have a bunch of guys in a hack house or whatever it is coding and creating the startup, but because there’s fewer of us when we’re in each other’s company, it means so much more to us. And as a result, I think we build a lot more enduring networks that have a lot more meaning and a lot more genuine connection.
Speaker 1 [00:10:45] Alison, you pointed out the idea of community and the community just as in entrepreneurs. It’s, the folks who are going to back you. I’m curious what you’ve seen in terms of how that is evolving, because there’s lots of capital out there. Lots of funds, good initiatives to increase funding, particularly for female founders. And yet it’s not doing enough. What’s keeping us back?
Speaker 2 [00:11:08] Well, I think we have made some progress. And my former employer, BDC, actually was quite instrumental in that. When I was running the fund side of the business. We spent a lot of time with first time managers, many of whom were women, who were setting up their own venture capital firms for the first time. And I think that need to put more women in the market as decision makers on capital is really important, because one of the things that we’ve certainly discussed is the vocabulary of how women led companies and women founders talk about their businesses and pitch their businesses to investors can sound very different than how men do it, and often without women to help sort of understand that vocabulary and how it might be different venture capital fund managers, they really weren’t getting the message. They were thinking of these women as not being confident or not being ambitious enough. And, you know, part of what makes for a good society, both on the founder and on the capital side, is diversity of experience and diversity of thought. I think this is some where we’ve made progress in Canada. There’s still much more to be done. But I think in some ways we’ve become a little bit more aware of that over the last few years. And certainly in my time at BDC, I moved our portfolio from probably ten to, you know, 15% women led firms that I was backing to 42%.
Speaker 4 [00:12:30] Just wanted a follow on that. I think it’s really a big point of the first check because entrepreneurs create new products, they create a better product that needs to come to market. And how do you get that product to market and how do you get the funding? And I think that’s the biggest hurdle for entrepreneurs. How do you get over that first step? And there isn’t a lot that Canada has to offer, to be honest, in terms of the first check, whether it’s, you know, from seed investors, family banks, Canada is a very small market in a very conservative market, risk averse market.
Speaker 5 [00:13:06] Yeah, for us, we had to get very creative when it came to that. And our business is less capital intensive to start. And that really helped us because we were able to start the business on, you know, the couple thousand dollars that we had in our bank accounts and just drain it out. And luckily we were students at the time. So there were some pitch competitions that you could get. But it’s like, how do you make every penny count? And then, getting something that you can show to an investor eventually and say, yeah, we have something that could be something. It was quite challenging. We had to go back to the drawing board and kind of rethink the way that we were talking, because when you talk in the way that certain and that we feel most confident in, that’s not enough often. So now it’s like, okay, let’s speak the language of these investors and change the way we’re talking about our businesses so that we fit in, but then create the world behind us where women don’t have to change the way that they’re speaking and that they can just show up as they are and be heard.
Speaker 1 [00:14:03] How have you changed your pitch?
Speaker 5 [00:14:05] We learned to be more aggressive and more confident in our numbers. It’s just channeling your inner Chad and really just getting really confident.
Speaker 5 [00:14:16] I love that. As women, we often feel like we have to embody traditional male characteristics to appeal to them, right. And you should always just be yourself. If talking a certain way comes natural to you, that’s totally how you should be. But oftentimes we force ourselves in terms of our body language or our mannerisms to embody something that they can actually see, whereas they should just learn to accept that women are innately different or more compassionate. We’re more empathetic. We look at different things, and that has equal value to what they value. And you’re right, it’s such a transition period for us. But I think the reason the stats are still 3% or 20% is because that’s systemic change as we go through this process is going to be seen two generations or three generations from now, where hopefully it becomes like 50/50.
Speaker 1 [00:15:07] It’s a tougher market now. Higher interest rates. Slower economy. Harder to raise capital. Curious how everyone has adjusted to that. What you’ve learned from this down cycle and how your business is pivoting.
Speaker 3 [00:15:19] Yeah, I’ll jump in quickly because I want to just riff off a comment that was made previously around the first check, and how difficult it is to get that first source of funding as hard as it was early in the days. It’s taught all of us to be more resourceful founders. So, for instance, in the beginning, when we couldn’t have any venture capitalists take us seriously and we couldn’t get any government body to fund us, instead of just saying we just can’t get the money. We would write letters to the board directors of those organizations to say, hey, we’re not eligible, but let us apply anyway. And then they would send us a pre application to then submit the application. And it tripled the amount of work we had to do. Or when we didn’t get into an incubator, we would, we would contact the co-chairs of the incubator and say hey, here’s why we deserve a seat. And we would force and demand and scream our way in. And you’re talking about the economic downturn. But the reason that’s relevant is because we are so equipped to be resourceful now that there isn’t an economic downturn, that I don’t think that we’d survive.
Speaker 1 [00:16:12] Do others feel that way?
Speaker 4 [00:16:13] I don’t know. I see talented people leaving Canada, going to the US because there’s more funding there and that’s sad. Yes, we have to be resourceful, of course. But I do think that things need to change. I think particularly in clean tech, it’s underfunded. We need more subsidies. We need more support. We need more investment. And something has to change on the investor side, where we are seen differently. How are we pivoting? And it’s difficult. It’s what we’ve had to learn. In order to grow a company, you need to spend. But at the same time, you have to manage your risks. So it’s been really tricky.
Speaker 2 [00:16:51] Yeah. I think this is a real issue is that, Canada’s venture market is shallow. There just isn’t the depth and the variety of capital and clean tech in particular is a real shortage on the seed stage. And that’s doubly hard, I think as a woman working at the seed stage in clean tech, and clean tech is difficult because there’s one name for a lot of different types of businesses. Some of the more CapEx intensive, some of them less so, some of them much more related to industry. That makes it hard because, you know, you think about fund managers, venture capital fund managers out there, some of them maybe familiar, less familiar or less comfortable in some of these spaces you’re working. And so it does make it hard to get that, pitch to resonate and the land as it does. And I agree that we need to do more. But I would also say the U.S. has always been a big part of the Canadian market. Our challenge is not having them come up and fund as much as it is coming up and telling these companies to come back to the United States, or they’ve become Delaware based companies instead of, you know, Canadian incorporated companies, that’s a really bad habit we’re trying to break.
Speaker 4 [00:17:59] Yeah. And I think a lot of our competitors, I’m sure, for you as well, they’re getting ten times the investment that we get. So it makes it more difficult for us.
Speaker 1 [00:18:07] I suspect the Inflation Reduction Act has maybe even increased that ten x factor. Curious how you’re all thinking about that, whether you see it as a sucking sound or maybe just a competitive driver, but there’s a lot of free money, available in the US are a lot more available in the US than here. What to what do you think Canada needs to do right now or this year that can really start to move the dial?
Speaker 2 [00:18:34] There’s a few things. One is that we have to recognize where we are and play to our strengths. Certainly one of our strengths is clean tech. Actually, as a nation, I mean, we have 12 of the top 100 clean tech champions globally are Canadian, which is extraordinary given our population and our innovation ecosystem funding. So there’s no doubt we punch above our weight in terms of innovation. But to Natalie’s point, we’re not always necessarily lining up all our resources so that smoothly companies can go from that, that origination to commercialization through to starting to scale and find all those resources in Canada. That’s one thing at MaRS we’re very concerned about is that the value chain of how companies go from first concept through, to truly having scaling opportunities and find those support structures all the way along in Canada is an area where I think we have to focus, because we all know we will have fewer resources going forward. But if we actually coordinate what’s out there a little better, the same way these incredible founders have all sort of supported each other in a network effect, I think that those services, both on the government and the private side, need to have a bit more of a coordinated network effect to sort of push the level of resource impact to be greater so that we can work with less, but actually do more.
Speaker 3 [00:19:53] I think that’s such great points. And I think another side of this is other policy. Right? At the end of the day in Canada, we need to create companies that are foundationally designed for change and you can’t. Foundation any better than policy shift. So I’ll use our industry as an example. We have food and fashion. If there are policies put in place that are encouraging better diversion of food waste or better diversion and recycling and bio degradation of textiles, that’s an automatic win for us. And the government today is very risk averse, not only in the macroeconomic policies, but policies we know will lead to a more successful landscape for innovators and companies like ours. So policy shifts, listening to what innovators want and adjusting the competitive landscape to favour them. Everything else will kind of just follow through.
Speaker 4 [00:20:41] Yeah, I agree with that. I mean, also in our industry, California has prop 65. Europe’s doing amazing stuff to make sure that companies are adopting more sustainable practices. And I think that’s really what’s needed to propagate the industry and help companies like ours. There’s a lot of red tape and administrative work that is involved in swapping out a product. So when companies don’t have that incentive or the policies are not in place, there’s little reason to make changes and adopt new technologies.
Speaker 5 [00:21:10] And I think it’s important that they listen to the innovators and understand what’s out there, because oftentimes they’re so hesitant to make a policy because they don’t think there’s any solution. So in the packaging world, they ban single use plastics, but they don’t look at anything else. And so now when you look at packaging, anytime you get something now it’s going to be a single use other material. Right. And it’s just let’s swap out plastic for something else. And can you imagine if we swapped out all the plastics in the world for paper, so wouldn’t be enough trees in the world to sustain that. We’re currently cutting down a forest the size of the UK every year just for paper packaging, so I think it’s important to pay attention to, you know, the implications of all of the policies that we’re making and make sure that it’s headed in the right direction and that it’s supporting innovation and not just supporting the swap from one material to the next.
Speaker 3 [00:22:00] It’s so silly to think that policy is reactive instead of proactive. If it was proactive, they could fuel the economy so much faster, but they wait for everyone to be stuck and then open the doors, which is very unfortunate.
Speaker 1 [00:22:17] As we move towards close and this has been a great conversation. So I hate to take it towards closed, but I wonder if I can ask you what each of you hope and dream your company will be ten years from now. And maybe. What does Canada need to do to ensure you get there?
Speaker 3 [00:22:34] It’s a tough one. Ten years from now, at a very practical level, we should not be wearing plastic as clothes, right? It’s 2024. 60% of the clothes we wear are made of plastic and we’re extremely dependent on it. And with the increasing disposable nature of fashion, it just can’t stand. So ten years from now, plastic or petroleum as the feedstock will be replaced by food waste and ALT TEX will have a big hand and taking a large proportion of the fabric that is displaced. But more importantly, in doing so, we’re able to advocate inside the supply chain for more ethical and more sustainable and more transparent practices. In the same way, our company is able to advocate for women in tech and women in leadership and women in entrepreneurship. I would say over 80% of our team is women right now, and they’re all incredibly smart and they’re doing such an incredible job. And it’s not just limited to their everyday task, it’s the impact they’re going to leave behind. So the students at the University of Waterloo who are seeing them are co-op students or students that we mentor and so forth. So business impact, sustainability impact, but also just trying to connect some more women and show them that entrepreneurship is an option for their future.
Speaker 5 [00:23:42] We dream of a world with no packaging waste. And so in ten years, we want to see Canada completely eliminate the single use package. And so we’re hoping to build that infrastructure so that anything that goes out can come back. So just in the same way you bring your beer bottles back to the beer store, you can bring back your takeout packaging. You can bring back your containers of peanut butter. We think that in the way that you put out your recycle, but it doesn’t actually get recycled. Let’s put out things to actually be collected, reused, washed, and keep in circulation so that our landfills aren’t overflowing and we don’t have to ship half of our waste to the states or overseas.
Speaker 4 [00:24:22] I think for us, in ten years time, I’d like to see our products in more applications. So being able to roll out our chemistry into different markets. For us, partnership’s been really instrumental in scaling our business and growing our business. And, you know, I’m hoping that we get strategic partnerships that will help us do this.
Speaker 1 [00:24:45] Alison, when you hear stories like these and they’re inspiring stories, what do you think we collectively can take advantage of and help with?
Speaker 3 [00:24:52] Well, I think from an ecosystem, we as the partners helping entrepreneurs scale and realize that ambition, it’s about bringing all the right ingredients together at the right time. So it’s the advice, it’s the corporate connections. It’s the capital. It’s the access and introductions to markets. It’s creating that network of support that each of these founders need from each other to share their experiences and learn from each other. And I think just finding that model of how we do that as efficiently and as, I would say as broad a network as we can to Myra’s point is like we just need more entrepreneurs who have a better, broader support service out there for us to see entrepreneurship truly transform the economic future of Canada. Right. I think that’s what we need. We need a machinery that is the kinds of things we see at MaRS, and we need it to scaled to a much greater chance so that we see wherever you are in Canada, you find the support structures that truly give you a path forward to build that incredible business that you want to build.
Speaker 1 [00:26:01] What a great message. We need more entrepreneurs, certainly as a country. Maybe that leads to a final question. There are a lot of entrepreneurs who listen to our podcast and would be entrepreneurs. I’m curious what your advice is for them, especially for female entrepreneurs and would be entrepreneurs. If you can give one piece of advice to leave people with Myra, maybe we can start with you.
Speaker 3 [00:26:24] I would say you’re going to spend the same amount of time on your business, regardless of what you’re building. Why not go out there and build the craziest thing that you could possibly think of, and try to have the most impact that you could possibly leave? And if you find some resources like what MaRS has equipped us with, and what venture capitalists and other people in the ecosystem have brought to us, you have a pretty high chance of success that you might not realize until you start. So think big and just get started.
Speaker 5 [00:26:48] Yeah, I love that idea of just get started. But I also think it’s there’s tons of great examples, like, you guys are such great examples of women who are doing really cool things. I think find someone to look up to, find a mentor, even if you don’t know them per se, but someone to inspire you to continue to advance your career. Because I think it’s such an important thing. You know, boys who want to be hockey players have that example. They watch the NHL, they practice, they get ready and, they aspire to be that. If you have a role model that you can aspire to be, that you see them out there doing it, then it just shows you like, I can do it too. And it gives you that confidence to continue to move forward.
Speaker 4 [00:27:29] Yeah, build on that. Find a strategic partner, particularly one who could be a customer because it’ll help with market adoption, product validation. You’ll know a lot more before you ready to go to market with your product, and hopefully they’ll become your first customer. So that’s definitely something I would recommend to any entrepreneur.
Speaker 1 [00:27:49] Alison. This has been such an inspiring conversation, but curious as you reflect on some of the ideas and experiences that have been shared here. What goes through your mind and what should people take away from it?
Speaker 3 [00:28:02] I think one of the things is, don’t underestimate the generosity of spirit out there to give back and to help you as a founder as you move forward. I think the venture capital community sometimes does get a bad knock of it’s all about elbows out, and we’re not getting enough capital and it’s very competitive. But in fact, I would tell you in the broader innovation ecosystem in Canada, I’ve never seen a community of people who want to support and champion so much, those founders who come to them with inspiring ideas. And so my advice, thinking about that to anybody out there who has a company who wants to build a company is don’t be shy to step forward and start a conversation with somebody in that community. You’d be surprised at how much time they’ll give to you and help you take that step to the next direction, to the next person who’s going to help you with that sort of sense of community and generosity, I think, is one of the most magical parts of being in this business. And we just need to keep building on that from going from strength to strength.
Speaker 1 [00:29:00] What a great note to end on. I’ve written down so much here, but, a few key words mentors, partners, and generosity. We should all be generous, but understand that most people are generous too, especially in tech. And that’s what community back to your original point, Alison is all about. This is a great community here. Thank you all for being part of it and being on Disruptors.
Speaker 3 [00:29:21] Thank you so much for having us.
Speaker 4 [00:29:22] Thank you for having us.
Speaker 1 [00:29:24] This is Disruptors, an RBC podcast. Until next time, I’m John Stackhouse.
Speaker 3 [00:29:35] Disruptors an RBC podcast is created by the RBC Thought Leadership Group and does not constitute a recommendation for any organization, product or service. For more disruptors content, visit RBC.com/Disruptors and leave us a five star rating if you like our show.
Orateur 1 [00:00:01] Bonjour à tous. Mon nom est John. Aujourd’hui, nous allons faire les choses un peu différemment. En effet, alors que sera sous peu célébrée la Journée internationale des femmes, dans le cadre du présent épisode, nous allons nous entretenir avec des femmes innovantes qui mènent la charge dans le domaine des technologies propres au Canada. Je suis accompagné aujourd’hui d’Alison Nankivell, la nouvelle cheffe de la direction de MaRS Discovery District (MaRS), ici à Toronto. MaRS constitue le plus important centre d’innovation urbaine d’Amérique du Nord, en plus d’être un organisme sans but lucratif qui fournit un soutien direct à des entreprises en démarrage, permettant ainsi à une communauté d’innovateurs d’accélérer l’adoption de solutions à fortes retombées pour certains des problèmes les plus pressants qui nous affligent à travers le monde. Nous nous retrouvons ici, dans le cadre d’une table ronde, dans l’édifice Royal Bank Plaza, au centre-ville de Toronto, pour discuter avec certaines de ces entrepreneures qui font également partie du programme accélérateur Femmes du secteur des technologies propres RBC. À Alison et moi-même se joint Myra Arshad, cheffe de la direction de la société ALT TEX, qui a en fait pour vocation de transformer des aliments en tissu. Nous en entendrons beaucoup plus sur ce sujet un peu plus tard. Nous retrouvons également Natalie Ashdown, cheffe de l’exploitation de la société Evoco, qui met l’accent sur les produits durables. Pensez, si vous le voulez bien, à une solution en vertu de laquelle tous les produits que nous connaissons et utilisons dans le cadre de notre vie quotidienne feraient appel à la chimie végétale. Enfin se joint à nous Jackie Hutchings, directrice des revenus de la société Friendlier, qui s’est donné pour mission d’éliminer les plastiques à usage unique dans la livraison de nourriture. Nous nous retrouvons dans le cadre du balado de RBC appelé Les innovateurs. Mon nom est John Stackhouse.
Orateur 1 [00:01:25] Alison, je suis absolument ravi de vous retrouver.
Oratrice 2 [00:01:27] Merci de m’avoir invitée, John. Je suis ravie d’être ici en compagnie de femmes exceptionnelles.
Orateur 1 [00:01:31] Et permettez-moi de vous féliciter pour votre nouveau rôle. Si vous n’êtes pas encore officiellement entrée en fonction, vous êtes désormais la nouvelle dirigeante de MaRS. J’aimerais tout d’abord traiter, Alison, de vos débuts dans le domaine de la finance. Car, avant d’entrer au service de MaRS, vous étiez à la Banque de développement du Canada (BDC), où vous avez dirigé une grande partie de son travail dans le domaine du capital de risque. Et avant cela, vous aviez connu une formidable carrière, allant d’Exportation et développement Canada (EDC) au Régime de retraite des enseignantes et des enseignants de l’Ontario.
Oratrice 2 [00:01:52] Oui. Je dois dire que j’ai connu un parcours tout à fait passionnant en travaillant tant au niveau international, dans le domaine de la finance, que par la suite au niveau national. Mais je me ravis véritablement du fait qu’une partie importante de mes activités professionnelles m’ont menée à l’écosystème canadien du capital de risque. Et que, par ailleurs, j’ai eu la chance, tant auprès de la BDC qu’aujourd’hui auprès de MaRS, de collaborer avec un si grand nombre de fondateurs et d’entreprises en démarrage tout à fait exceptionnels. Je suis donc extrêmement enthousiaste à l’idée de tabler sur les connaissances préalablement acquises dans le domaine du financement pour travailler, à titre de cheffe de la direction, d’une manière beaucoup plus globale avec la formidable communauté de personnes qui composent notre écosystème du capital-risque.
Orateur 1 [00:02:23] Qu’est-ce qui vous a inspirée en tout premier lieu à vous tourner vers le domaine de la finance ?
Oratrice 2 [00:02:26] Pour moi, la question a toujours consisté à donner aux entreprises les moyens nécessaires pour faire les choses qu’elles souhaitent accomplir, quelle que soit la forme qu’elles prennent. Au tout début, j’ai beaucoup travaillé avec des entreprises axées sur l’exportation, et l’enjeu à l’époque tenait aux efforts qu’elles devaient engager pour conquérir de nouveaux marchés, sachant que, pour ce faire, elles avaient besoin de capitaux. Par la suite, en ce qui concerne le domaine du capital-investissement et celui du capital-risque, l’enjeu consiste à disposer de ce capital-risque pour véritablement bâtir une entreprise. Et tout cela exige de la passion et une vision. Et cela constitue toujours une chose merveilleuse que de contribuer à concrétiser la vision de quelqu’un.
Orateur 1 [00:02:56] Quelle formidable vocation. Et nous allons maintenant entendre certaines de ces entrepreneures. Je vais les laisser, dans quelques instants, nous en dire plus sur leur travail, après quoi nous engagerons la discussion. Myra, pourquoi ne commencerions-nous pas par vous ? Permettez-moi de vous souhaiter de nouveau la bienvenue à Les innovateurs puisque vous avez déjà participé à notre balado. Qu’est-ce qui vous a amenée à créer votre propre entreprise et, plus particulièrement, ALT TEX ?
Oratrice 3 [00:03:12] Merci beaucoup, John, de m’avoir à nouveau invitée. ALT TEX est ma façon bien personnelle d’avoir un impact sur cette planète. Je pense que chaque entrepreneur peut affirmer qu’il ne serait pas en mesure de s’épanouir en effectuant un travail traditionnel de 9 h à 17 h. ALT TEX représente donc une façon pour moi de tenter de contribuer à la planète d’une manière qu’un emploi traditionnel en entreprise de type 9 h à 17 h ne m’a pas permis de faire avant de lancer cette entreprise. Comme vous le savez, ALT TEX est une entreprise en démarrage dans le domaine de la biotechnologie. Nous avons créé une alternative biodégradable et recyclable au polyester à base de déchets alimentaires transformés. Comme l’alimentation et la mode sont deux des industries les plus polluantes au monde, je suis d’avis qu’en les combinant mon équipe et moi-même pouvons trouver une façon d’avoir réellement un impact.
Orateur 1 [00:03:49] L’entrepreneuriat n’est pas une affaire de 9 à 5. Voilà l’une des conclusions que je retire de vos propos. Natalie, comment êtes-vous arrivée dans le secteur de la technologie ?
Oratrice 4 [00:03:56] J’ai entrepris ma carrière dans le domaine de l’ingénierie des matériaux et des procédés et, vous savez, je me compte chanceuse d’avoir pu me lancer dans le domaine des technologies environnementales et durables ou propres. J’ai contribué à mettre sur pied l’une des premières installations de bioéthanol de troisième génération au Royaume-Uni, et cela a vraiment façonné une partie importante de ma carrière. Mon partenaire, qui est le cofondateur d’Evoco, est également ingénieur chimiste et, lorsque nous attendions notre premier enfant, nous nous sommes disputés sur le sujet du choix du matelas pour le berceau et, chaque fois que nous consultions la liste des composants, nous constations que s’y retrouvait quelque chose dont nous ne saurions tolérer la présence dans ce matelas, puisque nous savions pertinemment que ce produit était toxique. Ainsi donc, non seulement avons-nous pris conscience du fait que nous pouvions créer des matériaux qui permettraient de réduire l’impact carbone, mais nous avons réalisé que nous pouvions détoxifier de nombreux matériaux dont nous nous servons dans notre vie quotidienne, qu’il s’agisse de nos matelas, des chaises sur lesquelles nous nous assoyons, des voitures que nous conduisons de même que de nos vêtements. Voilà donc comment tout cela a commencé. Telle fut notre source d’inspiration. Nous créons les éléments de base chimiques constitutifs. Nous avons fait nos premiers pas, pour ainsi dire, dans l’industrie de la chaussure et, en adaptant ces éléments de base, nous pouvons nous tourner vers de nombreuses applications différentes.
Orateur 1 [00:04:54] Jacqueline, qu’est-ce qui vous a attirée vers le secteur de la technologie ?
Oratrice 3 [00:04:57] Comme c’est le cas de Natalie, j’ai également une formation d’ingénieure chimiste. J’ai étudié le génie chimique et j’ai travaillé dans un certain nombre d’usines de fabrication, où l’on est directement témoin de l’économie linéaire à l’œuvre. Nous nous retrouvons à produire en masse des articles dont nous savons pertinemment qu’ils seront plus tard jetés et, en vérité, cela ne me semblait tout simplement pas satisfaisant. Comme l’a dit plus tôt Myra, je ne souhaitais pas passer le reste de ma vie à travailler de 9 h à 17 h en contribuant à ce problème. En parallèle, nous sommes tous conscients du développement des enjeux climatiques auxquels nous sommes confrontés. De sorte qu’avec ma cofondatrice Kailey, nous nous sommes assises et nous sommes demandé ce que nous pouvions faire pour résoudre ce problème. Et nous avons alors découvert l’économie circulaire. Nous avons donc décidé de faire appel à la technologie pour faire en sorte qu’il soit extrêmement facile pour les entreprises d’offrir des emballages réutilisables en lieu et place d’emballages à usage unique de sorte que, plutôt que d’utiliser quelque chose une seule fois et de le jeter, nous pouvions tirer la pleine valeur des produits avant qu’ils passent à l’étape du recyclage ou de la transformation.
Orateur 1 [00:05:53] Quelles formidables histoires inspirantes. Alison, j’aimerais m’adresser à vous parce que nous approchons de la Journée internationale des femmes. Et, comme nous le savons tous, il n’y a pas suffisamment de femmes dans le domaine des technologies propres. Elles ne reçoivent pas suffisamment de financement. Vous êtes dans ce domaine depuis plusieurs années. À votre avis, quels sont les aspects auxquels nous devons nous attaquer ?
Oratrice 2 [00:06:11] Une partie de la réponse tient à la possibilité de se référer à ces premières championnes, tant du côté du capital que du côté des entreprises, qui puissent vraiment donner l’exemple. Et c’est ce à quoi nous nous employons sans relâche à MaRS, en collaboration avec RBC, avec le programme accélérateur Femmes du secteur des technologies propres. Je pense qu’il est important pour ces femmes incroyables de servir de modèles pour la prochaine génération d’entreprises de technologies propres créées par des femmes, mais également en ce qui concerne le volet des capitaux. Lorsque j’ai débuté dans le secteur, ce qui remonte à il y a trop de temps pour que j’en fasse mention ici, il me semble qu’environ 5 % de l’ensemble du capital-risque se retrouvait entre les mains de femmes. Cette proportion a augmenté au cours des 10 dernières années de telle sorte qu’elle est aujourd’hui de 20 % au Canada tandis qu’elle n’est que de 3 % aux États-Unis. Il y a donc encore fort à faire dans ce domaine pour permettre aux femmes de disposer de la visibilité et de l’accès aux capitaux nécessaires pour leur permettre de développer réellement leurs entreprises. Ainsi, ce que MaRS souhaite véritablement faire consiste à créer une communauté d’entreprises, de sociétés, d’organismes responsables de l’attribution des capitaux, de sociétés de capital-risque et d’acheteurs d’entreprises afin de vraiment démontrer que les femmes qui dirigent ce type d’entreprises peuvent tout aussi bien réussir elles aussi. Mais, pour ce faire, il faut bâtir une communauté. Et c’est ce que nous nous efforçons de faire ici, dans le contexte du programme accélérateur sur lequel nous travaillons en collaboration avec vous.
Orateur 1 [00:07:23] Myra, vous hochez la tête pratiquement à tout ce que dit Alison. Quels ont été les défis auxquels vous avez été confrontée et que pourriez-vous nous dire qui pourrait peut-être nous servir d’information ou de source d’inspiration quant aux façons dont vous vous y êtes prise pour surmonter ces obstacles ?
Oratrice 3 [00:07:34] La raison pour laquelle je hochais autant de la tête est qu’il semblerait qu’Alison nous dit qu’un changement systémique s’impose, n’est-ce pas ? Actuellement, le système ne favorise pas les femmes. Mais il est possible de faire en sorte qu’il le soit en semant les graines du changement. Et chacune de nous peut faire office de graine qui peut témoigner de notre représentation et permettre ainsi à d’autres femmes de se tourner vers ce domaine. Et nous pouvons élargir nos activités par la suite. Pour moi, lorsque j’ai fait mes premiers pas, je pense que le principal défi consistait à me demander si j’étais même en mesure de faire cela. S’il existait des modèles ou si je pouvais me tourner vers des témoignages de réussite dont je pourrais m’inspirer et dont je pourrais suivre les traces. Et bien qu’il en existe de remarquables, ce ne sont pas ceux sur lesquels nous décidons de mettre l’accent. Lorsqu’on s’intéresse aux femmes qui dirigent des entreprises, la clé ne tient pas au rendement ou au mérite, mais plutôt à la visibilité. Même si nous sommes moins nombreuses, si nous créons de la visibilité, comme nous le faisons par le truchement de ce balado et comme le fait MaRS en collaboration avec le programme accélérateur Femmes du secteur des technologies propres RBC, de plus en plus de femmes qui sont moins chevronnées que nous le sommes pourront prendre conscience de cette représentation et y trouveront l’inspiration nécessaire pour venir nous rejoindre en quelque sorte. Tel était donc le principal défi auquel j’ai été confrontée, lequel renvoyait à ce syndrome de l’imposteur, qui m’incitait à me demander si je disposais même de ce qu’il fallait pour y parvenir. Et c’est en trouvant des appuis comme les représentants de MaRS et d’autres écosystèmes que le problème a été résolu, dans la mesure où j’ai alors acquis la confiance et les ressources nécessaires pour prendre conscience du fait qu’il n’existait ni différence innée ni différence systémique, et de ce que j’étais en mesure de réaliser par rapport à n’importe lequel de mes homologues.
Oratrice 2 [00:08:48] Et l’un des aspects que j’allais souligner est ce sentiment de communauté. Voilà ce que j’entends autour de la table, quant au fait que vous constituez un réseau qui vous permet de devenir des collègues, des amies et des contacts permanents qui continueront de tirer parti de vos conseils et de vos expériences mutuels. Et je suis extrêmement intéressée à en entendre un peu plus sur ce sujet puisque je pense que, pour les femmes, il s’est avéré extrêmement difficile de compter sur les mêmes réseaux innés qui existent depuis un certain temps déjà du côté masculin du monde du capital-risque.
Oratrice 3 [00:09:17] Absolument. Nous sommes toujours à la recherche de pairs ou de collègues qui vivent la même chose puisque, dans mon cas, tous mes bons amis sont des ingénieurs qui travaillent dans des usines. S’ils sont de très bons amis, ils ne comprennent pas ce que cela signifie que de s’employer à réunir des capitaux ou de licencier un employé. Cependant, en adhérant à une communauté comme celle de MaRS, il est alors possible de rencontrer d’autres fondateurs dans d’autres domaines qui, eux, comprennent de quoi il s’agit. Et cela peut vous permettre de poursuivre vos efforts puisque, vous savez, vous tentez d’accomplir quelque chose de difficile. Ils ont accompli quelque chose de difficile. Et nous allons nous tenir les coudes pour y parvenir ensemble.
Oratrice 4 [00:09:44] Oui, je suis tout à fait d’accord avec vous. Même en ce qui concerne les rapports avec Myra, puisque nous travaillons dans un secteur tout à fait similaire. Il nous arrive fréquemment de pouvoir partager des noms de candidats pour certains postes. Je suppose que la situation est exactement telle que vous venez de la décrire. Dans le cadre du programme des technologies propres, nous pouvions discuter de nos problèmes de ressources humaines, puisque cet aspect est important pour nous tous. De sorte que le fait de pouvoir compter sur les programmes qui sont mis de l’avant au sein de MaRS ainsi que sur le réseau qu’il propose s’est avéré absolument essentiel pour nous, et nous nous comptons tout à fait chanceuses.
Oratrice 3 [00:10:07] Je dois ajouter quelque chose à ce que vous venez de dire. Je ne sais pas si vous êtes en mesure, à titre de femmes, de bien comprendre cela, mais si je peux me permettre de revenir à l’évocation de ce syndrome de l’imposteur ou du manque de visibilité en grandissant, j’ai l’impression que nous apprécions encore plus la présence les unes des autres, n’est-ce pas ? Car la norme habituelle met en scène un groupe de garçons ou d’hommes qui se retrouvent quelque part pour créer une entreprise. Cependant, comme nous sommes moins nombreuses lorsque nous nous retrouvons en compagnie les unes des autres, cela s’avère encore beaucoup plus important. Et je pense donc que nous créons des réseaux plus durables qui sont plus pertinents et qui reposent sur des liens beaucoup plus authentiques.
Orateur 1 [00:10:45] Alison, vous avez évoqué l’idée de communauté, de ce qu’elle représente pour les entrepreneurs. Ces personnes qui vont vous soutenir. Je serais curieux d’en savoir plus sur la façon dont cela évolue, puisque beaucoup de capitaux sont disponibles. Il y a énormément de fonds, de bonnes initiatives qui pourraient permettre de rehausser le financement, et notamment pour les fondatrices. Mais, malgré tout, ce n’est pas suffisant. Qu’est-ce qui nous empêche de progresser ?
Oratrice 2 [00:11:08] Eh bien, je pense que nous avons accompli des progrès. Et mon ex-employeur, la BDC, a en fait joué un rôle déterminant à cet égard. Lorsque je dirigeais le volet du financement de l’entreprise, nous passions beaucoup de temps avec les gestionnaires qui n’avaient pas d’expérience antérieure à ce titre, dont plusieurs étaient des femmes, et qui s’employaient à mettre sur pied leur propre société de capital-risque pour la première fois. Et je pense que cette nécessité de faire en sorte qu’un plus grand nombre de femmes se retrouvent à occuper un rôle de décideur en matière de capitaux dans le marché est extrêmement importante. En effet, l’une des choses dont nous avons certainement discuté tient à la façon dont les entreprises dirigées par des femmes et les fondatrices parlent de leurs entreprises et en vantent les mérites aux investisseurs peut sembler très différente de celle que retiennent leurs collègues masculins. Et il arrive fréquemment que si des femmes ne contribuent pas en quelque sorte à faire passer ce message, les gestionnaires de fonds de capital-risque ne comprennent pas véritablement de quoi il s’agit. Ils pourraient avoir pour impression que ces femmes manquent de confiance en elles ou qu’elles ne sont pas suffisamment ambitieuses. Et, vous savez, une partie de ce qui permet à une société de se distinguer, tant en ce qui concerne les fondateurs que le volet des capitaux, tient à la diversité de l’expérience et de l’approche réflexive. Il me semble qu’il s’agit là d’un aspect à l’égard duquel nous avons accompli des progrès au Canada. Cependant, il y a encore fort à faire. Mais je pense que, d’une certaine façon, nous sommes un peu plus conscients de cet aspect depuis quelques années. Et, indiscutablement, pendant mon séjour à la BDC, j’ai fait en sorte que mon portefeuille intègre des entreprises dirigées par des femmes dans une proportion de 42 %, alors que cette proportion était auparavant de 10 % à peut-être 15 %.
Oratrice 4 [00:12:30] J’aurais aimé ajouter quelque chose. Je pense que cet aspect de la première étape est extrêmement important puisque les entrepreneurs créent de nouveaux produits, qu’ils créent de meilleurs produits qui doivent être offerts sur le marché. Et comment s’y prend-on pour faire en sorte que ce produit soit offert sur le marché et pour obtenir le financement ? Il me semble qu’il s’agit là du principal obstacle pour les entrepreneurs. Comment s’y prend-on pour surmonter cette première étape ? Et pour dire vrai, le Canada n’a pas grand-chose à offrir en ce qui concerne cette première étape, et que l’on fasse ici référence aux investisseurs d’entreprises en démarrage, aux banques familiales, le Canada constitue un très petit marché au sein d’un marché très conservateur qui a une aversion pour le risque.
Oratrice 5 [00:13:06] Oui, dans notre cas, nous avons dû faire preuve énormément de créativité à cet égard. Et, à l’origine, notre entreprise nécessitait moins de capitaux. Et cet aspect nous a vraiment aidés puisque nous avons été en mesure de lancer l’entreprise avec, comment dirais-je, les quelque milliers de dollars dont nous disposions dans nos comptes bancaires, en les vidant tout simplement. Et, fort heureusement, nous étions à l’époque étudiants. Nous avons donc pu participer à un certain nombre de concours de présentations rapides. Mais la question consiste à se demander comment on s’y prend pour faire en sorte que le moindre sou compte. Et par la suite, il s’agit de parvenir à mettre sur pied quelque chose qu’il est possible de présenter éventuellement à un investisseur, pour pouvoir en venir à la conclusion que nous disposons de quelque chose qui pourrait vraiment être intéressant. Cela n’a pas été sans poser de nombreuses difficultés. Nous avons dû retourner à la planche à dessin et repenser en quelque sorte la façon dont nous nous exprimions. Il arrive en effet fréquemment, lorsqu’on s’exprime d’une façon donnée, et en laquelle on a confiance, que cela ne suffise pas. De sorte qu’aujourd’hui, nous nous sommes convaincues d’utiliser le langage des investisseurs et de modifier la façon dont nous parlons de nos entreprises pour parvenir à faire notre place. Mais notre désir est aussi de faire en sorte que les femmes n’aient pas à modifier la façon dont elles s’expriment et qu’elles puissent tout simplement se présenter telles qu’elles sont et être entendues.
Orateur 1 [00:14:03] En quoi avez-vous modifié votre façon de vous présenter ?
Oratrice 5 [00:14:05] Nous avons appris à nous montrer plus agressives et plus confiantes envers nos chiffres. La clé consiste tout simplement à faire ressortir notre moi masculin intérieur et à faire preuve d’une grande confiance.
Oratrice 5 [00:14:16] J’aime beaucoup. Comme femmes, nous avons souvent l’impression que nous devons incarner les caractéristiques masculines traditionnelles pour parvenir à les séduire, n’est-ce pas ? Alors qu’il convient toujours plutôt de simplement être soi-même. Si le fait de s’exprimer d’une certaine manière vous vient tout naturellement, c’est ainsi que les choses doivent être. Mais il arrive fréquemment que nous nous forcions, que ce soit sur le plan du langage corporel ou des manières, à incarner quelque chose dont ils puissent être vraiment conscients, alors qu’ils devraient tout simplement apprendre à accepter le fait que les femmes sont intrinsèquement différentes ou plus compatissantes. Nous sommes plus empathiques. Nous tenons compte d’autres aspects et cela est tout aussi important que ce à quoi ils accordent de la valeur. Et, vous avez raison, nous connaissons une formidable période de transition. Mais je pense que la raison pour laquelle nous en sommes toujours à 3 % ou à 20 % tient au fait que l’évolution de ce processus relève d’un changement systémique pour lequel il faudra compter de deux à trois générations, après quoi, faut-il l’espérer, nous nous retrouverons dans des proportions plus proches du 50/50.
Orateur 1 [00:15:07] Le marché est plus difficile actuellement. Les taux d’intérêt sont plus élevés, l’économie est plus lente. Il est plus difficile de rassembler des capitaux. Il est intéressant d’observer comment chacun s’est ajusté à cette réalité. Qu’est-ce que ce cycle baissier vous a permis d’apprendre et comment votre entreprise se transforme-t-elle ?
Oratrice 3 [00:15:19] Oui, permettez-moi d’intervenir rapidement parce que j’aimerais simplement revenir à un commentaire qui a été fait plus tôt au sujet du premier chèque ou de la première étape, de la difficulté que représente le fait d’obtenir cette première source de financement, et de combien cela était aussi difficile jadis. Tout cela nous a appris à devenir plus ingénieuses en tant que fondatrices. À titre d’exemple, au tout début, alors qu’aucun responsable dans le domaine du capital-risque n’était même disposé à nous prendre au sérieux et que nous ne pouvions parvenir à faire en sorte qu’un organisme gouvernemental quelconque nous finance, plutôt que de simplement reconnaître que nous ne pouvions trouver de l’argent, nous avions pour habitude de rédiger des lettres aux conseils d’administration de ces organismes pour leur dire que, même si nous n’étions pas admissibles, nous souhaitions toutefois soumettre notre demande. Ils ont ensuite entrepris de nous faire parvenir un dossier de demande préliminaire qui pouvait ensuite nous amener à déposer une demande. Et cela avait pour effet de multiplier par trois la somme de travail que nous devions accomplir. De la même façon, lorsque nous ne parvenions pas à accéder à un incubateur, nous avions pour habitude de nous mettre en rapport avec les coprésidents de cet incubateur, en leur soulignant les raisons pour lesquelles nous estimions que nous méritions de nous y retrouver. Et nous avions donc pour habitude de nous imposer, d’exiger et de nous manifester pour parvenir à trouver notre place. Et vous venez d’évoquer le ralentissement économique. La raison pour laquelle cela importe tient au fait que nous sommes si habituées aujourd’hui à faire preuve d’ingéniosité qu’il me semble qu’il n’existe aucun ralentissement économique auquel nous ne serions pas en mesure de survivre.
Orateur 1 [00:16:12] Certaines d’autres d’entre vous partagent-elles ce sentiment ?
Oratrice 4 [00:16:13] Je ne sais pas. J’observe des gens extrêmement doués quitter le Canada pour aller aux États-Unis parce qu’on y retrouve plus de financement. Et cette réalité est triste. Nous devons bien évidemment faire preuve d’ingéniosité. Cela va de soi. Mais je pense également que les choses doivent changer. Je pense que le domaine des technologies propres, en particulier, souffre d’un sous-financement. Nous avons besoin de plus de subventions. Nous avons besoin de plus de soutien. Nous avons besoin de plus d’investissements. Et quelque chose doit changer du côté des investisseurs, où nous sommes perçues différemment. Comment entreprenons-nous de nous transformer ? C’est difficile. C’est bien cela que nous avons dû apprendre. Pour développer une entreprise, il faut dépenser de l’argent. En parallèle, cependant, il faut gérer adéquatement les risques auxquels nous sommes exposées. De telle sorte que la situation n’a pas été simple.
Oratrice 2 [00:16:51] Absolument. Je pense que cela représente un véritable problème dans la mesure où le marché du capital-risque au Canada est, disons, peu développé. Ce marché ne présente pas l’étendue et n’offre pas la variété des capitaux équivalente, et on observe, notamment dans le domaine des technologies propres, une véritable pénurie en phase d’amorçage. Et cela représente une double difficulté, me semble-t-il, que de travailler comme femme dans le domaine des technologies propres en phase d’amorçage, sans compter le fait que les technologies propres présentent des difficultés particulières puisque cette même désignation regroupe une multitude de types d’entreprises différents. En effet, certaines d’entre elles ont des besoins plus importants en termes de dépenses en immobilisations tandis que ce n’est pas le cas d’autres, et que d’autres encore se rapprochent beaucoup plus étroitement de la situation qui prévaut généralement dans l’industrie. Cela complique les choses puisque, comment dirais-je, si l’on pense aux gestionnaires de fonds, aux gestionnaires de fonds de capital-risque, il se peut que certains d’entre eux connaissent plus ou moins ou soient plus ou moins à l’aise avec certains des domaines dans lesquels vous travaillez. De telle sorte qu’il n’est pas simple de parvenir à présenter les dossiers de manière percutante et d’obtenir les résultats escomptés. Et je suis d’accord quant au fait que nous devons faire plus. Cependant, je dirais par ailleurs que le marché américain a toujours constitué une partie importante du marché canadien. Notre difficulté ne tient pas tant au fait que les Américains se manifestent et financent autant qu’ils le peuvent, mais plutôt à inciter ces entreprises à revenir aux États-Unis – ou de devenir des sociétés constituées dans l’État du Delaware – plutôt que des sociétés constituées au Canada. Et cela représente une très mauvaise habitude que nous tentons de briser.
Oratrice 4 [00:17:59] Oui. Et je pense qu’indiscutablement, et c’est certainement le cas pour vous également, plusieurs de nos concurrents profitent d’investissements 10 fois plus élevés à ceux que nous obtenons. Voilà qui complique les choses pour nous.
Orateur 1 [00:18:07] Je soupçonne que la loi sur la réduction de l’inflation aura peut-être même augmenté cela selon un facteur de 10. Je serais curieux d’en apprendre plus sur la façon dont vous percevez cela, en parvenant à déterminer si vous observez toutes un phénomène de disparition massive ou si vous êtes tout simplement témoins d’un facteur concurrentiel. Mais il y a énormément d’argent et beaucoup plus d’argent disponible aux États-Unis qu’ici. Que pensez-vous que l’on doit faire au Canada en ce moment ou cette année pour vraiment commencer à faire bouger les choses ?
Oratrice 2 [00:18:34] En fait, il y a plusieurs choses à souligner. La première tient au fait que nous devons bien prendre conscience de notre situation et mettre nos atouts de l’avant. À l’évidence, les technologies propres constituent l’une de nos forces. En vérité, sur le plan national, il faut rappeler que 12 des 100 plus importantes entreprises dans le domaine des technologies propres à travers le monde sont canadiennes, ce qui est un résultat absolument extraordinaire compte tenu de notre population et du financement de notre écosystème d’innovation. Il ne fait donc aucun doute que nous obtenons de meilleurs résultats que ceux auxquels il serait possible de s’attendre sur le plan de l’innovation. Cependant, pour revenir au point soulevé par Natalie, nous ne parvenons pas toujours nécessairement à intégrer l’ensemble de nos ressources de sorte que les entreprises puissent harmonieusement passer de l’étape de la création à celle de la commercialisation, puis du développement, tout en profitant de l’ensemble de ces ressources au Canada. Voilà un aspect dont nous nous soucions énormément chez MaRS, qui concerne la chaîne de valeur que doivent suivre les entreprises pour passer de l’étape du concept initial à celle de la prise en considération des possibilités de développement, tout en pouvant trouver à chacune des étapes du processus, ici au Canada, les structures de soutien, ce qui représente un aspect auquel nous devons, me semble-t-il, porter de l’attention puisque nous savons tous et toutes que nos ressources seront moindres dans le futur. Cependant, si nous parvenons en fait à coordonner un peu mieux les ressources à notre disposition, de la même façon que ces incroyables fondatrices se sont en quelque sorte supportées mutuellement dans le cadre d’un réseau, il me semble que ces services, relèvent-ils des gouvernements ou du secteur privé, devront pouvoir donner naissance à un effet de réseau un peu mieux coordonné de telle sorte que nous puissions accentuer l’impact qu’auront les ressources et qu’en définitive nous puissions faire plus avec moins.
Oratrice 3 [00:19:53] Il me semble qu’il s’agit là d’excellentes remarques. Et un autre aspect de cette même question tient aux politiques, n’est-ce pas ? En fin de compte, nous devons créer au Canada des entreprises qui sont fondamentalement conçues pour le changement et on ne saurait jeter de meilleures bases qu’en altérant les politiques. Si vous le voulez bien, permettez-moi de me référer à notre industrie à titre d’exemple. Il est ici question à la fois de l’alimentation et de la mode. Si devaient être mises en place des politiques qui favoriseraient un meilleur détournement des déchets alimentaires ou une meilleure réutilisation et un recyclage plus approprié de même que la biodégradation des textiles, voilà qui serait automatiquement favorable pour nous. Et le gouvernement actuel est très réticent à prendre des risques, non seulement sur le plan des politiques macroéconomiques, mais également à l’égard des politiques dont nous savons pertinemment qu’elles conduiront à l’établissement d’une conjoncture plus favorable pour les innovateurs et les sociétés comme les nôtres. Il faut donc changer les politiques et écouter ce que souhaitent obtenir les innovateurs, en plus de corriger le contexte concurrentiel de manière à les favoriser. Il me semble que tout le reste s’en suivra tout naturellement.
Oratrice 4 [00:20:41] Oui, je suis d’accord avec cela. En fait, c’est également le cas dans notre industrie puisque, par exemple, a été mise en place en Californie la Proposition 65. L’Europe accomplit des choses tout à fait formidables pour s’assurer que les entreprises adoptent des pratiques plus durables. Et il me semble qu’il s’agit là véritablement de ce qui s’avère nécessaire pour appuyer l’industrie et aider des entreprises comme les nôtres. Le remplacement d’un produit fait intervenir énormément de formalités administratives et de travail du même ordre. De sorte que, lorsque les entreprises ne peuvent compter sur des incitatifs ou lorsque les politiques ne sont pas en place, aucune raison ne justifie d’apporter des changements et d’adopter de nouvelles technologies.
Oratrice 5 [00:21:10] Et il me semble qu’il est important qu’ils écoutent les innovateurs et qu’ils comprennent bien la situation telle qu’elle existe étant donné qu’il arrive fréquemment qu’ils manifestent beaucoup d’hésitation à l’égard de l’élaboration de politiques puisqu’ils ne sont pas d’avis qu’il existe une solution. Ainsi, dans le domaine de l’emballage, si l’on interdit les plastiques à usage unique, on évite de suivre quelque autre avenue que ce soit. Et aujourd’hui, dans le domaine de l’emballage, chaque fois que l’on reçoit quelque chose, cette chose est emballée dans un autre matériau à usage unique. N’est-ce pas ? Et la solution consiste tout simplement à remplacer le plastique par autre chose. Pourriez-vous vous imaginer ce qui arriverait si nous décidions de remplacer tout le plastique par du papier ? Il n’y aurait tout simplement pas suffisamment sur terre d’arbres pour permettre que cela puisse se faire. De nos jours, nous abattons tous les ans une forêt de l’étendue du Royaume-Uni simplement pour subvenir aux besoins en matière d’emballage en papier. De telle sorte qu’il me semble qu’il importe en quelque sorte de porter attention aux répercussions de toutes les politiques que nous adoptons, en nous assurant qu’elles soient orientées dans la bonne direction, qu’elles favorisent l’innovation et que la solution ne consiste tout simplement pas à remplacer un matériau par un autre.
Oratrice 3 [00:22:00] Il est stupéfiant de penser que les politiques présentent un caractère réactif plutôt qu’un caractère proactif. Si l’approche était proactive, il serait possible de dynamiser l’économie beaucoup plus rapidement. Cependant, on attend plutôt que chacun se retrouve coincé avant d’ouvrir la voie au changement, ce qui est tout à fait regrettable.
Orateur 1 [00:22:17] Nous nous rapprochons de la fin de notre rencontre, et je dois dire que cette conversation a été passionnante. Autant je regrette devoir me préparer à la fin de notre rencontre, autant je me demande si je pourrais inviter chacune d’entre vous à nous faire part de ses espoirs et de ses rêves pour son entreprise, sur un horizon de 10 ans. Et en nous précisant peut-être ce que le Canada doit faire pour que vous y parveniez.
Oratrice 3 [00:22:34] Voilà une question difficile. Dans 10 ans, d’un point de vue tout à fait pratique, nous nous entendons sur le fait que nous ne devrions pas porter de vêtements comportant du plastique, n’est-ce pas ? Nous sommes en 2024. Soixante pour cent des vêtements que nous portons contiennent du plastique et nous sommes extrêmement tributaires de ce matériau. Et compte tenu du caractère de plus en plus jetable de la mode, cette situation ne peut se maintenir. De sorte que, dans 10 ans, j’estime que le plastique ou que le pétrole à titre de matières premières auront été remplacés par les déchets alimentaires, et ALT TEX aura fait beaucoup pour ce changement et sera responsable d’une grande partie du tissu qui aura été remplacé. Mais, fait plus significatif encore, nous serons ce faisant en mesure de militer au sein même de la chaîne d’approvisionnement en faveur de pratiques plus éthiques, plus durables et plus transparentes. De la même manière, notre entreprise est en mesure de militer en faveur de la place des femmes dans le domaine des technologies, au niveau du leadership et de l’entrepreneuriat. Je dirais que plus de 80 % de notre équipe est actuellement formée de femmes. Elles sont toutes incroyablement intelligentes et elles accomplissent toutes un travail exceptionnel. Et leur apport ne se limite pas simplement à leurs tâches quotidiennes. Il tient également à l’impact qu’elles laisseront derrière elles. De sorte que les étudiantes de l’Université de Waterloo qui les observent aujourd’hui sont des étudiantes en stage ou des étudiantes dont nous assurons le mentorat, et ainsi de suite. Il est donc ici question d’impact sur les entreprises, d’impact sur la durabilité, mais également de la démarche qui consiste à tisser des liens entre un plus grand nombre de femmes, en leur démontrant que l’entrepreneuriat constitue une option pour leur avenir.
Oratrice 5 [00:23:42] Nous rêvons d’un monde dépourvu de déchets d’emballage. Ainsi, nous souhaitons que le Canada ait complètement éliminé d’ici 10 ans les emballages à usage unique. Nous espérons donc tabler sur cette infrastructure de telle sorte que tout ce qui est produit puisse être réutilisé. De la même façon que nous ramenons nos bouteilles de bière au magasin où nous les avons achetées, nous pourrons ramener nos emballages à emporter. Nous pourrons ramener nos contenants de beurre d’arachide. Nous pensons actuellement à cela sur le plan de nos interventions en termes de recyclage, mais en vérité les produits ne sont pas recyclés. Produisons des articles qui puissent être vraiment recueillis, réutilisés, lavés et maintenus en circulation de telle sorte que nos décharges ne débordent pas et que nous n’ayons pas à expédier la moitié de nos déchets aux États-Unis ou à l’étranger.
Oratrice 4 [00:24:22] Pour ma part, j’aimerais que dans 10 ans nos produits se retrouvent dans un plus grand nombre d’applications. J’aimerais que nous puissions faire profiter différents marchés de nos solutions en matière de chimie. Pour notre part, les partenariats ont été essentiels pour assurer le développement et la croissance de notre entreprise. Et j’espère que nous parviendrons à établir des partenariats stratégiques qui nous aideront à atteindre cet objectif.
Orateur 1 [00:24:45] Alison, lorsque vous entendez de tels témoignages, qui sont vraiment inspirants, de quoi pensez-vous que nous pouvons collectivement tirer parti et comment pensez-vous que nous pourrions apporter notre aide ?
Oratrice 3 [00:24:52] Eh bien, du point de vue de l’écosystème, et pour nous, à titre de partenaires qui aident les entrepreneurs à se développer et à réaliser leurs ambitions, la démarche consiste à faire en sorte que nous puissions rassembler tous les bons ingrédients au bon moment. Il faut donc intervenir sur le plan des conseils. Sur le plan des relations avec les entreprises. Sur celui des capitaux. Sans compter l’accès aux marchés et l’introduction à ces derniers. L’objectif consiste à mettre en place ce réseau de soutien dont toutes ces fondatrices ont besoin de la part de leurs collègues pour leur permettre de partager leurs expériences et d’apprendre les unes des autres. Et il me semble que le simple fait de trouver ce modèle qui nous permettrait de nous acquitter de cette tâche de la manière la plus efficiente possible, tout en mettant en place un réseau le plus vaste possible, comme l’a évoqué plus tôt Myra, passe par l’accès à un plus grand nombre d’entrepreneurs qui puissent profiter de services et d’un soutien meilleurs et plus vastes de sorte que l’entrepreneuriat puisse véritablement transformer l’avenir économique du Canada. Voilà ce qui, me semble-t-il, est nécessaire. Nous avons besoin d’une infrastructure qui met de l’avant le genre de choses que l’on retrouve chez MaRS, et nous avons besoin qu’elle soit beaucoup plus développée de telle sorte que, quel que soit l’endroit où vous vous trouvez au Canada, vous puissiez trouver les structures de soutien qui vous permettront vraiment d’aller de l’avant afin de mettre sur pied cette formidable entreprise que vous souhaitez créer.
Orateur 1 [00:26:01] Quel message exceptionnel. Manifestement, en tant que pays, nous avons besoin de plus d’entrepreneurs. Peut-être ces considérations nous amènent-elles à une dernière question. Beaucoup d’entrepreneurs et de futurs entrepreneurs écoutent notre balado. Je serais curieux de savoir quel conseil vous leur donneriez, tout particulièrement aux femmes entrepreneures et aux futurs entrepreneurs. Si vous pouviez donner un conseil dont vous aimeriez qu’ils se rappellent, quel serait-il ? Peut-être pourrions-nous commencer par vous, Myra ?
Oratrice 3 [00:26:24] Je dirais que vous allez consacrer le même temps à votre entreprise, quelle que soit sa nature. Pourquoi dès lors n’envisageriez-vous pas la possibilité de créer la chose la plus folle à laquelle vous puissiez penser et, ce faisant, tenter d’avoir l’impact le plus puissant que vous puissiez avoir ? Et si vous trouvez certaines des ressources comme celles dont MaRS a su nous profiter, sans compter les investisseurs en capital-risque dont ont su nous faire profiter les autres membres de l’écosystème, vous aurez de grandes chances de réussir dont vous n’auriez peut-être pas été conscientes avant de débuter. Mon conseil consiste donc à voir grand et à vous lancer.
Oratrice 5 [00:26:48] Absolument. J’aime beaucoup l’idée selon laquelle il faut se lancer. Mais je pense aussi qu’il y a une foule de formidables exemples. Comme vous, vous-mêmes, qui êtes de formidables exemples de femmes qui accomplissent des choses vraiment exceptionnelles. Je pense qu’il y a lieu de trouver quelqu’un vers qui vous puissiez vous tourner, de trouver un mentor, même si vous ne connaissez pas vraiment cette personne, mais quelqu’un qui puisse vous inspirer à continuer à faire avancer votre carrière. Car il me semble que cela est particulièrement important. Vous savez, les garçons qui veulent devenir des joueurs de hockey peuvent se référer à cet exemple. Ils peuvent regarder les matches de la LNH, ils peuvent s’entraîner, ils peuvent se préparer et aspirer à réaliser leur rêve. Si vous avez un modèle qui peut vous inspirer, dont vous pouvez observer qu’il passe vraiment à l’action et qu’il accomplit les choses, ce modèle vous démontre en fait que vous aussi vous pouvez le faire. Et cela vous donne la confiance nécessaire pour continuer d’avancer.
Oratrice 4 [00:27:29] Oui, développer cet aspect, trouver un partenaire stratégique, notamment un qui puisse être un client, puisque cela vous aidera sur le plan de l’adoption sur le marché et de la validation du produit. Vous en saurez beaucoup plus avant que vous soyez prêt à commercialiser votre produit et, avec un peu de chance, ce client deviendra votre premier client. Voilà donc indiscutablement quelque chose que je recommanderais à tout entrepreneur.
Orateur 1 [00:27:49] Alison. Cette conversation a été une formidable source d’inspiration, mais je serais curieux de recueillir votre point de vue lorsque vous écoutez certaines des idées et des expériences qui ont été évoquées aujourd’hui. Qu’est-ce qui vous vient à l’esprit et quel enseignement les personnes qui nous écoutent devraient-elles en retirer ?
Oratrice 3 [00:28:02] Je pense que l’une des choses consiste à ne pas sous-estimer la générosité dont plusieurs savent faire preuve pour redonner et vous aider à titre de fondateur ou de fondatrice au fil de votre démarche. Je pense que la communauté du capital-risque s’acquiert parfois une mauvaise réputation alors qu’on estime qu’elle fait preuve de peu d’empathie, que les capitaux ne sont pas suffisants et qu’il s’agit d’un domaine très compétitif. Mais en fait, dans le contexte de l’écosystème de l’innovation considéré dans sa globalité au Canada, j’estime n’avoir jamais rencontré une communauté de gens qui souhaite autant appuyer et défendre les fondateurs qui viennent leur soumettre des idées inspirantes. De sorte que le conseil que je donnerais à toute personne qui possède une entreprise ou qui souhaite créer une entreprise est de ne pas hésiter à prendre l’initiative et à engager une discussion avec un membre de cette communauté. Vous serez surpris de constater combien de temps ces personnes seront disposées à vous donner, en plus de vous aider à poser un premier pas dans cette nouvelle direction, sans compter les autres qui vous aideront à acquérir ce sentiment de communauté et de générosité. Il me semble qu’il s’agit là de l’un des aspects les plus formidables que représente le fait d’être dans ce domaine. Et, par la suite, il vous suffit de continuer à tabler sur ces bases pour faire de mieux en mieux.
Orateur 1 [00:29:00] Voilà une excellente façon de clore notre discussion. J’ai pris énormément de notes, mais je retiens quelques mots clés comme « mentors », « partenaires » et « générosité ». Nous devrions tous être généreux. Cependant, il faut comprendre que la plupart des gens sont également généreux, notamment dans le domaine des technologies. Et voilà qui nous renvoie à la notion de communauté que vous évoquiez au tout début, Alison. Il existe une formidable communauté. Merci à vous toutes d’en faire partie et d’avoir participé à notre balado Les innovateurs.
Oratrice 3 [00:29:21] Merci beaucoup de nous avoir invitées.
Oratrice 4 [00:29:22] Merci de nous avoir invitées.
Orateur 1 [00:29:24] Vous venez d’écouter Les innovateurs, un balado de RBC. Au plaisir de vous retrouver la prochaine fois. Mon nom est John Stackhouse.
Oratrice 3 [00:29:35] Le balado, Les innovateurs, est produit par le Groupe Leadership avisé RBC et ne vise pas à recommander une organisation, un produit ou un service en particulier. Pour retrouver d’autres balados de la série Les innovateurs, veuillez consulter le site RBC.com/Lesinnovateurs. Si vous avez aimé notre balado, n’hésitez pas à nous octroyer une note de cinq étoiles.
Speaker 1 [00:00:02] Hi. It’s John here.
Speaker 2 [00:00:03] And it’s Theresa.
Speaker 1 [00:00:05] Theresa. We’ve talked on episodes past about your electric vehicle, and today we’re talking about clean tech. So I’m going to kick off taking you back to your EV. Are you still driving it?
Speaker 2 [00:00:14] I am, it’s served me well. And although we did move into a house now and we park on the street some of the time. So access to charging is not the greatest.
Speaker 1 [00:00:24] How are you figuring that out? Charging when you park on the street?
Speaker 2 [00:00:28] We basically don’t. We have to drive to a supercharger. Luckily, a lot of the places where we run errands have installed chargers, so that has been a huge boon and honestly, a relief because we can just dip into the grocery store for 20 minutes. Our cars charge maybe another 6%. That gets us to where we need to go and then we’re good.
Speaker 1 [00:00:46] I love it, innovation on the fly. And now, as a homeowner, how are you thinking about heat pumps?
Speaker 2 [00:00:51] We are looking into seeing how we can get a heat pump. Specifically, what are the right heat pumps for our space? When is the right time to get a heat pump? We want to make sure that we wear out our current heating units life cycle. And so a lot of considerations that, you know, not only I have, but so many of my neighbors are sharing in the community around us. It’s sparked a really fun dialog across all these people from different walks of life.
Speaker 1 [00:01:16] It just goes to show how complex the climate transition is, not just for whole countries and whole economies, but for households and individuals. Every decision can be a little bit different. That makes it interesting, makes it challenging. And those challenges are what we explore in a new report from the RBC Climate Action Institute. It’s called Double or Trouble. It’s our first report that takes a look at Canadian climate action and measures how the country is doing across the economy, but also as individuals and as households. And the core message is there in the title Double or Trouble. We need to double a lot of things, including the amount of capital that needs to go into climate action over the rest of the decade, and that capital is needed to deploy and scale technologies, whether it’s heat pumps or EVs, but also industrial technologies, from carbon capture to methane measurement from outer space.
Speaker 2 [00:02:09] And that climate capital will also be needed to help change the narrative, John. Our research shows that most Canadians are not willing to change their lifestyles for high impact climate action, no matter how crucial, urgent, important it is. So what good is that technology if no one is willing to adopt it?
Speaker 1 [00:02:26] This is shaping up as a decade of innovation. And as we approach the midpoint, how can we ensure that Canada is a global leader in the clean tech race? This is Disruptors, an RBC podcast. I’m John Stackhouse.
Speaker 2 [00:02:45] And I’m Trinh Theresa Do.
Speaker 1 [00:02:51] Climate action involves everyone. But as our report shows, the federal government has carried most of the financial weight over the last decade. New public investment is going to be needed from all sorts of sources, but the real opportunity is private capital and markets to mobilize billions, maybe trillions of dollars that will be needed to scale these technologies and get us on a path to net zero. And most importantly, it’s going to require all of us as individuals, as citizens, neighbors and consumers making those critical choices every day.
Speaker 2 [00:03:20] Agreed. We need to mobilize to create this demand, because that demand is going to be what encourages scale and adoption of these new technologies. And that’s more than ever before, so important.
Speaker 1 [00:03:33] Today, we’re taking a deeper dive with leaders from three Canadian clean tech companies discussing the opportunities and challenges that they see across the country and even in outer space. Our first guest is Stephane Germain. He’s the president of GHGSat. In 2016, the company launched the world’s first satellite system to monitor greenhouse gases. It was the size of a toaster oven and nicknamed Claire. In 2023, the satellites helped authorities spot and stop a massive methane leak in England. Stephane, welcome to Disruptors.
Speaker 3 [00:04:08] Thanks, John. Pleasure to be here.
Speaker 1 [00:04:09] Let’s start quickly with Claire. Why the name?
Speaker 3 [00:04:12] We name our satellites after the kids of our team members. So Claire is the daughter of our chief scientist.
Speaker 1 [00:04:20] That’s a great beginning. Now, we’re all familiar pretty much with satellite images, even if they come from Google. Give us a quick sense of how GHGSat differs.
Speaker 3 [00:04:28] Well, we designed our satellites very specifically to monitor emissions from individual facilities around the world. So there’s satellites that can see the whole atmosphere every day to inform climate change models. But what we were trying to do was really help individual operators see what’s going on in their own facilities.
Speaker 1 [00:04:48] And it’s one thing to have an image. It’s quite another to actually do something with it. How do you connect the satellite with the actual decision makers on the ground? Who can do something with that data?
Speaker 3 [00:04:59] Well, that’s always a challenge because we live in a world where we’re all swamped with data on a regular basis, and it’s to turn that data into something useful, something that’s actionable. So sometimes it’s as simple as just a picture tells a thousand words. Rather than getting a data point that says, hey, you got a leak of this magnitude at this GPS location, that’s just data. You just show a picture and say, look, this facility has this massive emission. And that then helps spur action, catalyze action.
Speaker 2 [00:05:32] So GHGSat began with monitoring methane emissions, and recently it launched the world’s first commercial CO2 sensor in orbit. Can you share with us the difference between monitoring methane versus CO2?
Speaker 3 [00:05:46] We had to choose about five years ago which one we’d start with, because one of the first things we learned with Claire was that if you try to do both things at the same time, you’re going to do them both slightly less well than you’d like. So we chose methane first because it was the one that had the most immediate commercial market. CO2 is a much longer term play, and you need to do both. It turns out for us it’s actually the same sensor, but we just need to tune it to different gases. And so it’s a relatively minor — my science team would kill me for saying this — relatively minor change between the two satellites, but it’s basically the same thing. And so we’re really excited to see our first results soon from carbon dioxide.
Speaker 1 [00:06:33] There are a lot of other countries and companies that are good at satellite imagery. How did you get there first?
Speaker 3 [00:06:39] We just saw that we had technology that could be brought to bear to help customers understand their own emissions more cost effectively than what they currently were using as other technologies. The idea of miniaturizing a sensor into something that you could launch as an entrepreneur, as a new business, was kind of wild. Ten, 15 years ago. So we spotted the opportunity, we saw the market need, and we jumped on it. And we just happened to get there first. And now we’re working really hard to maintain that lead and stay number one on what we do.
Speaker 1 [00:07:13] As the old saying goes, what gets measured gets managed. And this is all about, measuring, emissions. What are the types of companies and industries that you think will benefit, most especially from methane mapping?
Speaker 3 [00:07:25] Oil and gas is the largest industrial emitter of methane in the world. So we work closely with many, many large oil and gas companies in North America, but also internationally. But in addition to oil and gas, the waste sector, the coal mining industry, agriculture is actually really, really big for emissions. If you look at it globally, if you add up every single cow in the world and multiply a cow burp by a number of cows, you’re going to get a lot of methane. And then there’s a bunch of others, but those are probably the biggest ones.
Speaker 2 [00:07:59] Just given the diversity of emitters and geographical landscapes, what are the challenges that your company faces in being able to collect and analyze that data?
Speaker 3 [00:08:09] Well, collecting and analyzing the data is actually the easy part. The challenge is how you translate that data into action. You’re dealing with different company cultures, different national cultures, different national laws. And so to be able to motivate and bring to action all these different groups and all these different jurisdictions, that is the challenge.
Speaker 1 [00:08:30] I’m guessing some of the users don’t want to see the results. How do you bridge that mental gap?
Speaker 3 [00:08:35] The good news is that actually, within almost every single company we worked with, there’s always a group that does want to understand their emissions better. They are sometimes fighting against a culture of 99% of the rest of the company, that’s really focused on production and profits. So it’s a real challenge to get each company to get the data, internalize it, action it, and do so in a way that people see it as a positive.
Speaker 2 [00:09:04] As you’ve been engaging with companies and, you know, engendering that trust and verification, have you encountered anything that surprised you?
Speaker 3 [00:09:13] Well, maybe I can tell a bit of a funny story. When we launched our first satellite, Claire, in 2016, we went hunting for different large emission sources, and some academics asked us to go look at what’s called a mud volcano. So a natural source of emissions of methane in Central Asia. And sure enough, we went and took a look and saw nothing. Very boring. But right next to it we saw this massive emission that we hadn’t expected. And that became the first cornerstone example of the international community coming together to identify using satellites, a source that wasn’t previously known, and then work with the local government to mitigate that. That one discovery was equivalent to taking a million cars off the road for a year.
Speaker 2 [00:10:05] That’s amazing.
Speaker 3 [00:10:06] That’s the magnitude of opportunity we have in front of us.
Speaker 1 [00:10:19] Stephane, what does Canada need to do to build a true national advantage in this space?
Speaker 3 [00:10:24] I really believe that Canada can have a sustainable competitive advantage by having aggressive policies and regulations, but also aggressive initiatives and efforts within the operators themselves to reduce emissions. It has to be all of the levers being pulled at once. It’s not just about regulations. It’s not just about taxes or carbon pricing. It’s about that culture change. It’s about companies themselves realizing that they will have a longer run, more profitable run if they themselves position themselves as being the most competitive, the most differentiated in the world.
Speaker 1 [00:11:10] If you pause for a moment and look out, I don’t know, five, ten years, where do you see this taking us?
Speaker 3 [00:11:17] So I believe that in the next 5 to 10 years, every single facility in the world is going to be monitored on a daily basis using satellites. And with that kind of insight and data, that total transparency in global emissions, not just in methane, but carbon dioxide. Not only are we going to have a better idea of where the challenges are and where the opportunities are, we’re also going to have the basis for a much more fluid market. So I really live with hope and actually, I think with well-founded optimism that there’s going to be some significant changes in the way we all individually work and how businesses operate every day based on that kind of level of transparency being available worldwide.
Speaker 1 [00:11:57] That’s a great call to action and also inspiring in terms of the opportunity that’s out there for all sorts of sectors, all sorts of innovators. Stephane, thanks for being on Disruptors.
Speaker 3 [00:12:07] Thanks, John. Appreciate the opportunity.
Speaker 2 [00:12:14] Our next guest is Apoorv Sinha, founder and CEO of Carbon Upcycling Technologies, a Calgary based clean energy company focused on low carbon building materials. Apoorv has helmed Carbon Upcycling for a decade, focusing the company on the “U” of CCUS (carbon capture, utilization and storage). Apoorv, welcome to Disruptors.
Speaker 4 [00:12:36] Thank you for having me, Theresa and John.
Speaker 2 [00:12:38] You were born in India, grew up in Kuwait, studied chemical and biomolecular engineering at Atlanta, Georgia. What led you to Canada and the world to clean tech?
Speaker 4 [00:12:47] I’ll tell you, it wasn’t my skiing skills. I’m still kind of a pretty average skier. It was really an interesting turn of events. As you mentioned, I have had the privilege of kind of having seen different parts of the world. But really, when I finished my undergraduate degree in 2010, it was really the job market that led me to Calgary. I had studied chemical engineering and really wanted to be part of something to do with energy, and, Calgary was the place to be at the time. It was difficult as an immigrant in the States to get a long term visa. So Canada made a lot of sense to set up shop, I suppose. And over 12 years later, I’m still here and working on something that I find extremely gratifying personally, the carbon cycle and closing it up.
Speaker 1 [00:13:30] That’s such a great Canadian story, and I hope we get to ski together someday, because my life’s ambition is to be pretty average. So you’ll have to help me get there. But we’re talking about buildings, and a lot of us don’t fully appreciate how carbon intensive the buildings are that we’re sitting in, that we live in, and that the more we build, often the more carbon gets released into the atmosphere. I wonder if you can give us some insight into where Carbon Upcycling fits into that grand challenge.
Speaker 4 [00:13:58] Our view of Carbon Upcycling is that cement and clinker. And I’ll mention in a second what the difference between them is. But these are two terms that are being conflated consistently. And there’s no reason why we cannot make a low carbon cement that is both cost effective and scalable and locally sourced. The core problem around cement decarbonization is that the chemistry of making cement, which is to take limestone and essentially baking it, such that it releases CO2 and it leaves behind a chemical called calcium oxide, which essentially is the binder that holds together our roads, our buildings, our bridge decks. And what we have been working on is essentially reducing that limestone component us what we call cement. If we can take waste materials from mining, waste materials from construction waste, waste materials from the steel industry, we can essentially come up with a low carbon cement product, which is not only able to get us considerably closer to our net zero ambitions, but also do it in a way that’s actually circular, not just for the cement industry, but also for other industries like mining, steel, and even energy generation.
Speaker 1 [00:15:05] So you’re essentially recycling materials into cement. Is that what upcycling is all about?
Speaker 4 [00:15:12] The real difference between recycling, upcycling, John, is that we’re actually taking a material of almost no value. This is material that gets used in road cell foundations. It gets thrown away in tailings or landfills. And so when we’re able to take that material and make it into a reactive alternative to clinker in cement, that becomes a really good, scalable example of upcycling, where you’re taking a material that has essentially no value in our current kind of market, but can now be used to reduce the emissions of one of our most carbon intensive industries.
Speaker 2 [00:15:48] That’s fascinating, and thank you for such a clear explanation of the whole process. We’ve had a lot of conversations with builders and developers across Canada, and when we mention cement and concrete, many have told us, you know, they don’t really quite understand the alternatives out there, and many of them are risk averse, and they want to stick with the Portland cement because that’s what they know once they’re used to. So that’s what they can guarantee the safety of. Can you share with us what you would say if someone asked that a safety question in relation to it.
Speaker 4 [00:16:16] What I would say is that the level of due diligence and testing that happens, especially in Canada and the U.S., is pretty much top of the line globally. We’ve been doing this work at a commercial scale in Calgary now for three years. We’ve been able to get a lot of proof from the commercial projects that we’ve gone into with our local partners. I don’t think that there are any carbon utilization companies like ours that would strongly vouch and say, you know, put us into a bridge deck tomorrow or put us into major structural parts of the Green Line project as an example. However, even in these major infrastructure projects, about 20 to 30% of the scope is nonstructural. That has a very low risk profile.
Speaker 1 [00:17:01] Apoorv, we’re talking about a range of climate technologies on this episode, and so often it’s not really about the technology, it’s about the economics of it and the financing of it. That is the barrier. Give us a bit of a sense of the economics of carbon utilization and what you’re up against and what you’re trying to take advantage of.
Speaker 4 [00:17:20] You know, cement is by far the biggest manmade commodity produced every year. The only thing that humans use more than cement is water. And so, as you can imagine, that has a huge downward impact on the cost of cement. And what we’ve been very fortunate with is that by showing that we can take these waste materials and upcycle them, we’re essentially able to come up with a cost profile of our technology that on an operating level, can compete very significantly, even with the local cost of cement production. And that’s really important because as these, tailwinds around carbon pricing and other incentives become more prominent, we believe that delta is actually going to keep swinging consistently towards us. And in our opinion, you know, creating something that’s economically viable is critically important to getting any level of meaningful adoption, between now and 2030.
Speaker 2 [00:18:13] What are the best use cases and the most common types of projects you’re seeing for your products?
Speaker 4 [00:18:18] I would say pretty much anything that falls under the nonstructural kind of application space. So this could be anything from sidewalks to Jersey barriers. It could be precast products, non load bearing walls in kind of low rise buildings. All of these applications would be fair game. And definitely external applications are really interesting avenues for us as well. And one of the reasons why we’re trying as much as possible to kind of raise awareness of our solution.
Speaker 1 [00:18:43] One of the challenges in the whole materials space is the standards which we all get to take for granted. Our buildings and our bridges hold up because of generations of work establishing standards, and a lot of good people need to look at these new products or new material mixes and say, not ready for prime time. We don’t want to put too much weight literally on these materials. How are we going to balance that challenge of innovating while protecting ourselves?
Speaker 4 [00:19:12] Ultimately, it’s going to boil down to discipline, decision making and calculated risks. I think we need to take a measured response, and we cannot kind of look at this through a wide lens and in broad strokes. There are many, many opportunities where we can do this at the local level without taking undue risks, definitely with lives, but even with performance. And that doesn’t necessarily mean that we have to slow down the transition. I think we just have to be very careful with where we implement these technologies and guide them through.
Speaker 2 [00:19:40] Looking ahead, what are your plans for scaling up carbon upcycling and CCUs technologies? What do you hope to see in five years?
Speaker 4 [00:19:47] Our mission, Theresa, is to be the most impactful carbon tech company of the decade. And if we can show that we can do this cost effectively while producing a product that actually helps lower emissions downstream through the displacement of carbon intensive materials like cement, we believe we would have done a really good job in reducing the emissions overall in and making our positive mark in this space. I think we have a core base of knowledge when it comes to construction, when it comes to, you know, carbon management, how to couple those together and, and lead that into a circular value proposition that makes sense holistically, is the challenge. But iterative development and leveraging the resources and skill sets that we’ve built over almost centuries is, in our view, the way to do it.
Speaker 1 [00:20:32] That’s brilliant. We need more tinkerers. Thanks for being on Disruptors.
Speaker 4 [00:20:36] Absolutely, John. Thank you.
Speaker 1 [00:20:41] Our final guest, Louis Tremblay, is the CEO of Flo EV Charging and a trailblazer in the field of electric mobility in Canada. Flo’s goal is to accelerate the adoption of EVs by offering a convenient and consistent charging experience, and currently enables more than 1.5 million charging events a month with more than 100,000 stations across North America. Louis, welcome to Disruptors.
Speaker 5 [00:21:05] Hi John, thanks for having me.
Speaker 1 [00:21:07] Let’s start with the flow story. Louis, you operate an extensive charging ecosystem — close to half a million members. How is Flo helping Canadians make the switch to EVs?
Speaker 5 [00:21:18] I would say the goal that we have since our foundation is really to make sure drivers that want to switch to electric vehicle have access to a reliable charging network, and that every time they use one of our chargers, that it works so people can feel confident to drive around Canada and rely on the Flo network.
Speaker 2 [00:21:39] I’m an EV driver and something that I’ve experienced is the inconsistency with charging rates in different locations. How does Flo differentiate itself from other competitors and how do you think about how you price?
Speaker 5 [00:21:54] Yeah, pricing is definitely an interesting subject. Over the last 15 years, there’s been an evolution in pricing. One thing that I’m really proud of is we did work closely with Measurement Canada to make kilowatt hour billing possible, and we did lobby to make that a reality. It’s been of a challenge. Still part of the complexity of having consistency from one charger to another, one province to another. But this is definitely a place where Flo is acting to make fir pricing for EV drivers.
Speaker 1 [00:22:27] Well, it’s pretty normal now, and much more so than even 24 months ago to see EVs not just in big cities, but right across the country. What we don’t see is the infrastructure that all those EVs rely on. How concerned should we be about the readiness of infrastructure for an inflection point of EV sales?
Speaker 5 [00:22:45] Definitely we should be concerned, John. There’s a lot that still needs to be done. We need to work with governments with OEMs, to make sure that there is sufficient charging, whether it’s, you know, fast charging in between cities and communities or curbside chargers in the city where you have a garage or fence. But one thing that is really exciting these days is there’s more EV models. You know, we used to have cars that didn’t have enough range, that didn’t suit a family like mine. And now we’re starting to have pickup trucks, SUVs, vans. So we’re seeing a portfolio of products that are available. The pricing of batteries are getting down. And it’s a good dynamic because we start to see the consumer to be in the driver’s seat. They have options. So it really creates what we want. It’s a consumer market where people fights to give more option, better pricing, more features to consumers.
Speaker 2 [00:23:48] As EVs expand into different vehicle types, what are the challenges and hurdles that we still have to overcome to fully have a mainstream EV culture?
Speaker 5 [00:23:56] There’s still a lot to do. It’s a transition, right? There’s still a lot of chargers to be deployed. Ultra-fast chargers because now the cars have bigger batteries. Pickup trucks have double the size of battery than the car that were on the market a couple of years ago. So we need the support of government. Everyone wants to fight climate change, but this transition is a challenging one. So we need to make sure that all the stakeholders, whether it’s the government, the OEM, the utilities, the electric company that are making sure that we’re making this transition together.
Speaker 2 [00:24:31] How does Flo think about where it builds its next chargers? You mentioned there’s EV pickups. There’s different vehicle types. There’s also different driver segments. There’s commercial fleets. How do you think about those segments as you build up the next chargers?
Speaker 5 [00:24:47] For most of our network deployment, we’ve been selling stations to anyone that wanted a charger at home, at work, whether it’s a fast charger or curbside charger. But as the market matures, you’re totally right, Theresa. As a network operator, we need to make sure that we’re going to have great coverage, making sure people can access charging everywhere. But as we’re thinking about that, as we have more capabilities to understand the needs of EV drivers, because we have accumulate this data set that tells us where EV drivers need charging, we also need to be able to invest ourself and to get a return on that investment, we need to put the charger where our people are. So it’s really shifting gears. Flow used to sell and operate this network. We are now deploying our own charger and owning them. So to me it’s like after 15 years on this business, it’s a big, big shift, but also a way to make sure that the experience for EV drivers, will be better because of that coverage we’re going to be able to have.
Speaker 1 [00:25:53] You have a wonderful perspective in terms of seeing how drivers are evolving and how the sector is evolving. With that growth, what changes are you seeing in the way that consumers behave?
Speaker 5 [00:26:05] It’s a big shift as things are evolving and it’s getting more mainstream people. I like to refer to my wife or my mom. They don’t care about all this complexity. They just want to drive from point A to point B, but this is exactly what we want, right? It’s people that they don’t fear. They don’t have that range anxiety to just want to embark into it. So this is definitely the years we’re in. We’re seeing more people getting into the EV because they don’t fear anymore. But the promise we have to meet and I’m talking about us and other charging networks, is to making sure we don’t leave them stranded.
Speaker 1 [00:26:49] If you can look out over the next five years, what do you think Canada needs to come to grips with to be a leader in this space?
Speaker 5 [00:26:57] We are not in a bad position. I would say in Canada we have some of the most aggressive targets on the planet. That being said, the infrastructure deployment needs to come and I hope it will come with the mending requirement on the reliability and charging experience, like it needs to bring a better experience to me than the internal combustion car. So we still need the government support, but we need to deploy and as we’re doing that, we should make sure also we invest into our industry from the mining, the batteries, all the value change up to the charging and the cars we need to invest there and what creates value for our country because it’s one of the best way to leverage that new economy.
Speaker 1 [00:27:38] Louis, that’s a great call to action for, for individual car owners and also for the country. Thanks so much for being on Disruptors.
Speaker 5 [00:27:45] Thank you John.
Speaker 1 [00:27:51] Theresa. Those were fascinating conversations. We heard from three clean tech pioneers in electric vehicles carbon utilization and methane measurement, a real spectrum of Canadian innovation. And through the conversations I kept thinking, wow, what a remarkable period this may be seen by history, especially if we’re able to scale these technologies and ensure that they transform the economy, but also our communities and society in very positive ways.
Speaker 2 [00:28:20] I love that the through line across all of these conversations is moving in some ways into the more boring questions and the more boring considerations. You know, it’s no longer the cool, exciting, oh, can we make this happen? Look at this cool new thing that we’re building over here now. It’s like, oh, actually, it’s how will people use this? How will we pay for it? How do we ensure that we can do proper change management to incorporate into people’s daily lives? Like these are boring, but such necessary things to have to consider, to build for, to design for. And I think that’s actually the more exciting part, because then it gets embedded into how we live. And that is the most important thing through this climate journey.
Speaker 1 [00:28:59] I love it. Maybe we can ask our producer to title this the boring episode because, you know, boring can be exciting, but boring is actually important. Getting all those details right is going to be critical. And if we put our minds to it, as we heard over and over again in this episode, this can be Canada’s decade of climate action, and disruptive technology has a huge role to play.
Speaker 2 [00:29:22] I completely agree, John. This requires action from everybody, public sectors, private sectors, and ultimately people. And the RBC Climate Action Institute, of which we are both members, has just released our flagship research report, Climate Action 2024 Double or Trouble. And I would encourage all listeners, please, if you’re interested in reading the report, visit RBC.com/cai
Speaker 1 [00:29:49] On the next episode, will be sitting down with Allison Nankivell. She’s the incoming CEO of MaRS Discovery District and speaking with some remarkable women who are overcoming challenges in the Canadian clean tech space. Until then, I’m John Stackhouse.
Speaker 2 [00:30:02] And I’m Trinh Theresa Do and this is Disruptors an RBC podcast. Talk to you soon.
[00:30:12] Disruptors, an RBC podcast is created by the RBC Thought Leadership Group and does not constitute a recommendation for any organization, product or service. For more disruptors content, visit RBC.com/Disruptors and leave us a five-star rating if you like our show.
Speaker 1 [00:00:02] Hi, it’s John here. I was recently in Davos, Switzerland for the World Economic Forum. And you may know the forum for its big stage where world leaders speak. But when I think of Davos, I often think of its main street, which is known for much of the year as the promenade. It’s a picturesque, winding road through a valley in the Alps, lined with boutiques and cafes. But for this one week in January, this street is taken over by the crowd. There’s those world leaders and global CEOs who make the news, but there’s also a whole range of entrepreneurs, activists, artists, celebrities and scientists. And there on the promenade, there’s a host of businesses and even nations trying to grab some of that global attention by taking over one of those shops for the week. To Davos regulars, the themes of the promenade have become sometimes a bit of a running joke. A few years ago there were so many blockchain pavilions it was nicknamed Blockchain Boulevard. Last year, I think it was called Crypto Corridor. This year it was hard not to see why it was called AI Avenue. One evening, I stood in front of my house, which was sponsored by a bunch of tech companies. I stared across the street to a range of storefronts with slogans like, let’s get real about AI and who says I can’t be robust and reliable? And there was a slogan that maybe could have been the slogan for Davos 2024; The future is AI, the future is humans. Back in the Congress Center, I spent the week jumping from one AI session to another, listening to scientists and entrepreneurs, CEOs, ethicists and regulators. Bill Gates was there and told us he thinks AI is going to be bigger than the internet. Sam Altman arrived and dropped a bit of a bomb, saying, ChatGPT is going to make us all more uncomfortable. I’ve tried to capture some of the many AI voices that were at Davos, and we’ll share some of them on this episode. Is this a hype cycle? Perhaps another crypto? Will I wipe out millions of jobs. Or will it make all our jobs more interesting and rewarding? The future, as that sign said, maybe AI and human, but it will take all of us to ensure we get the balance right. I’m John Stackhouse, and this is Disruptors, an RBC podcast. AI was definitely the topic of the week at Davos. Every AI session I came across was jammed and even the overflow rooms were turning people away. It just shows the degree of hype there is right now. And today we’re going to get beyond the hype and speak with some of the pioneers and visionaries. Who are doing real work. To help make sense of it all. I’m joined by my colleague and former co-host of Disruptors, Trinh Theresa Do. Theresa, it’s great to have you back on the podcast.
Speaker 2 [00:03:00] Hey, John, it’s great to be back. I am excited to dig into the hype versus reality of AI.
Speaker 1 [00:03:06] Well, I’m excited to have brought home some really interesting voices, which we’re going to share on today’s pod, starting with Erik Brynjolfsson. He’s a big name in AI, and a decade ago, actually, in 2013, Erik gave a Ted talk on the implications of artificial intelligence that seems to resonate still today. He argued that the key to making AI work was to use it to augment human capabilities, rather than to replace them. Erik is considered a leading voice in AI. He teaches a graduate course at Stanford called the AI awakening. He’s written nine books. He’s testified about AI in front of the U.S. Congress and participated in AI summits at the White House, and plenty of other places. I got to sit with him at dinner one night, and here’s a clip from our conversation.
Speaker 3 [00:03:53] When you walk down the street here in Davos, every sign is about AI. I’ve never seen anything like it. A few years ago I’d go to Capitol Hill in Washington or talk to CEOs around the world, and they were sort of interested in AI, but it wasn’t necessarily their top interest. Now they hang on every word. They’ve read my papers in advance before I meet with them. It’s a complete seed change in terms of how seriously they’re taking AI, and the tone here at Davos is just a affirmation of that, that this is the thing that everyone’s focused on right now. And 2024 will be the year that AI gets a body and gets put into action. And it’s not just AI writing funny stories or memos, but AI changing the way companies run businesses, workers do their jobs. And that will start translating into higher productivity, better business performance, and real changes in the economy. So in one study we did they rolled it out in a call center. And within a few months they were getting 14% productivity improvements. Some people 35%. You just don’t see that. And I think it’s simply just a very capable technology compared to some of the other ones. What’s your biggest worry? Well, there’s so many but in 2024. Like everyone, I’m worried that the elections will be polarizing, will be hijacked. There may be billions of bots out there giving customized misinformation or what I call nut picking, which is things that are technically true but are very misleading or misrepresented. And I made the actually superhuman persuasion before it’s superhuman in intelligence, and that’s going to be a very bad combination.
Speaker 1 [00:05:23] Theresa, it was so interesting to hear Erik talk about persuasion as well as productivity. In fact, productivity, I think, was the word of the week. But the point about persuasion is also critical, and not just out there in the public square and on social media. As the world moves into a year of elections where there’s going to be a lot of debate around information and disinformation. Companies need to think about this, too. How is AI helping your productivity? But at the same time, is it becoming a persuasion tool that also might need more management?
Speaker 2 [00:05:54] Yeah, I think that’s such an interesting point, because the 14 to 35% of productivity enhancements that Erik cites is obviously a big boon to businesses. But when you factor in the risk of misinformation, hallucinations, making sure that the information that the AI generates is correct, what then happens to overall productivity? I’m not really sure. There’s so many more resources and hours that will have to be expended to fact check the AI’s work to detect and flag that misinformation — continuously monitor. So all of that being taken to account, I’m not sure we will yet see the productivity that we want in the near term. I think it’ll take a bit more of a learning curve for corporations to be able to get to the point where, okay, sure, this new technology can be used in the most productive way, but only by everyone kind of getting up to speed on what the risks are and what the benefits are.
Speaker 1 [00:06:51] So there’s no free productivity left here, in other words. And in some ways, that’s the way of innovation, right? Trial and error means you spend a lot of time on things that aren’t going to pay off, but you test and learn and you keep developing to get to a better place. I’m interested to hear a lot of people talk about Copilots, which has become a bit of a buzzword in AI circles. So think of AI as your copilot. And that’s an interesting metaphor as well as application, because Copilots allowed pilots to fly longer and farther. So there’s a productivity lift. But flying also requires a lot of on the ground monitoring and governance and surveillance, even to make sure that the pilot and copilot are flying safely. Not sure that that metaphor plays out entirely in every application, but it’s a good reminder that whether we’re flying alone or we have a copilot in whatever we do, that it’s not just us and the machine that there’s others who are going to be involved.
Speaker 2 [00:07:47] And then something that you brought up in the past, John, is could we harken back to another moment where technology was set to drastically change corporations and that software in the 70s or 80s?
Speaker 1 [00:07:59] Yeah, a lot of AI today is really just enterprise software on steroids. Enterprise software really took off in the 70s and 80s. At the time, there were a lot of predictions that enterprise software would mean the end of all sorts of office jobs. And of course it did. But we have more white collar workers, more people working in offices than we had 50 years ago, and they’re a lot more productive. AI offers the same opportunity, but again, on steroids. It will be at a level and scale far beyond Excel or whatever we’re used to working with.
Speaker 2 [00:08:36] Yeah. And then, it will then of course vary on the industry and the ability of workers to actually be able to adapt to those changes. But yeah, huge transformations to come.
Speaker 1 [00:08:45] And those transformations are going to require a lot of what techies call product. AI right now has a lot of ambitions, a lot of aspirations, but it hasn’t been turned into that Excel or that outlook product that then gets distributed and applied at scale. And there are few people I know who understand this better than an old Disruptors guest Michelle Zatlyn, a Canadian who is the co-founder of Cloudflare. Cloudflare is an enterprise software application and product that allows companies and governments to protect themselves in the cyber wars. Her company protects 20% of the world’s internet traffic, and blocks an average of 140 billion threats per day. I ran into Michelle at Davos, and here’s what she had to say about what may be on the horizon for the next big tech revolution.
Speaker 4 [00:09:37] AI is as big as the invention of electricity and the internet. That’s how big of a deal it is. And that’s why it’s everywhere at Davos. So one thing I’ve learned about AI is right now we have a lot of demos, and I think a lot of people mistake the demo for a product. A year from now, what we’re going to be talking about is holy smokes, building the products are a lot harder using AI than the demos. There’s a lot to understand. Even the way that you build code today is a very deterministic fashion. With AI, it’s a non-deterministic action that’s going to be a shift in how we think, how we work, how we manage. It’s going to be a lot close to the policy side, which everyone’s really thought about. But a year from now, I think we’re going to be talking about, why don’t we have more AI built into products, why aren’t they solving real use cases for businesses yet? And it’s not because there is going away. It’s really, really important. It’s going to take a lot longer. So I guess I’m trying to say we’re at peak hype right now and it’s going to take a little bit longer to bake. But I’m very bullish on and in the long term.
Speaker 1 [00:10:28] That’s a great perspective from someone who’s actually built a multi-billion dollar company, a unicorn in the digital space. The point I think Michelle was trying to stress is that while AI may change the world, it’s actually going to require a lot of people, entrepreneurs especially, to do the hard work of creating products that we can all use in our daily lives, in the work that we do, and in the way that we communicate. There’s tremendous opportunity for a lot of companies, and it’ll be interesting to see who comes out this year with the kind of applications that certainly ChatGPT showed can have a really powerful impact on the market.
Speaker 2 [00:11:05] Demos are the easy part, and now is the grunt work of actually taking an idea and a vision and scaling it up, building it, testing it, maintaining it, making sure that the users can access it intuitively. And companies have to make sure they have you know, robust data pipelines. They got to refine their models, procuring the right hardware and chips, making sure there’s the right talent and labour. It’s no secret that the pool of AI talent is fairly small and demand is massive. And, on the point of hardware, let’s not forget that the entire global AI industry has a single point of failure in the form of TSMC in Taiwan that could completely upend the industry and grind things to a halt unless we see other manufacturers like Samsung and Intel ramp up to the same degree of volume. All of which to say, there’s so many challenges in the face of building proper AI products.
Speaker 1 [00:11:58] It’s a really interesting point you make, Theresa, about market concentration, and there’s a lot of worries right now that the generative AI universe is going to be dominated by the cloud companies. So Amazon, Google, Microsoft, principally, those are the companies that control all the data that we share from our phones or whatever we’re using. When we send it into the cloud. They’ve got a scale to do things with AI that very few others do. So that could lead to even more market concentration. But as we’ve seen through generations of tech disruption, it’s often those incumbents who get disrupted. AI yes, it may end up in the hands of a few and we’ll have that concentration and those single points of failure. But it also could lead to new ecosystems of developers and those products that are going to do things that none of us, including the incumbents, can see at this point in time.
Speaker 2 [00:12:53] Yeah, I’d love to see the misfits and rebels of AI, and if they are able to compete with these large language models that the incumbents have.
Speaker 1 [00:13:01] Well, it’s going to take a different approach to business and innovation in a lot of places. And that’s a wonderful thing about technology. I got to hear a bit more about this from some people at Capgemini, the big consulting firm. They had the coolest display at Davos, actually, right at the main entrance to the big Congress hall. They had a Peugeot sports car that is powered by AI to change the way that race car drivers drive, but also change the way that all of us drive one day. Capgemini released a report during Davos that states 96% of organizations say generative AI is on their boardroom agenda. Capgemini is doing a lot of work with those big tech giants, whether it’s Google or Microsoft or Salesforce or Oracle, but also working with a lot of entrepreneurs and smaller operators around the world. They have an AI Center of Excellence that is focused on empowering organizations through AI solutions. I met the head of that center, Ashwin Parmar, when I went in to see that race car, and here’s some of what he had to say.
Speaker 3 [00:14:04] I think he is a pervasive across all industries, and there’s a tremendous amount of interest in terms of applying gen AI to drive better forecasting, better predictability, reducing the overhead to make better decisions and drive value. There is a tremendous amount of apprehension about the safety and soundness, as well as about the ethics and trust implications of AI. So responsible AI is top of mind of everybody to make sure that they embrace it in a meaningful way, but do that in a responsible way. I think a year from now, you’ll be seeing a lot of new and novel ways people would have implemented AI to transform their businesses and to really create new and innovative solutions across the board. At the Capgemini Research Institute, just issued research in terms of where some of the key investments are going in terms of digital tools and technology, and what they have found is 88% of the executives are looking to focus on spending to drive AI driven innovation, which is a significant amount.
Speaker 1 [00:15:08] Theresa, I keep thinking about that race car because the car doesn’t drive itself. There is a human driver, a highly skilled human driver, who is getting better and better information about when to clutch, when to turn, how the wheels are burning and they figure in a 300 lap race, a great driver can shave a full lap off their time. So that gets back to that efficiency and productivity question. It reminds me of a Disruptors’ episode we did with AJ Agrawal from the Creative Destruction Lab. When we dug into the question, what’s holding AI back? And I think Ashwin’s point really reiterates the message that we need to get beyond predictions. Then maybe it’s time to shift focus away a bit from AI as a technology, and instead look at the economics and the human dynamics of the systems in which it operates.
Speaker 2 [00:15:57] Yeah, as a as a formula one enthusiast, I’m just imagining the 2025 champion will be Max Verstappen and his AI copilot. I mean, AI would be just another input into how workers manage their days and their task and organize their lives, right? And to your point about the economics and the human part of it, as anyone who’s worked on an enterprise wide transformation would know, and I’ve worked on a couple, the most important thing is being able to bring your employees with you every step of that journey. There are so many technology implementations that have failed because employees weren’t consulted or trained, or asked to contribute to identifying how that new technology could add value to their jobs and to their teams. And so this is going to be the same thing with AI as organizations seek to implement it and to engender that trust.
Speaker 1 [00:16:52] What a great challenge, Theresa, and great calling for any leader or anyone to think about how AI can empower groups. It’s not a plug and play, and we have to think of it as much about culture, as about technology. As you were talking, I was thinking of that great business school case study. I can’t remember the name of it, but it’s about, tragically, a plane crash and the recording from the Black Box shows a real disconnect between the pilots, and it was as much human error as technology error. And that’s important for AI, because a lot of people may think like, why do we need pilots to begin with? Machines can do it and I can do it. Very well, and any pilot will tell you that their job is as necessary as ever. It’s just what they do up in the cockpit is very different, and that includes the way they communicate with each other as well as with the machine. So it does come back to us as people as well as to the technology.
Speaker 2 [00:17:48] Absolutely. I actually just read something interesting on pilot and airplane safety, referencing the concept of a cascade of errors, and that often what gets to a fatal plane crash is not just one single mistake. And I think that is a crucial lesson for leaders as we go through this big AI transformative journey, making sure that you identify what it is that the AI can actually offer you and not to misinterpret that, because then that sets off a domino effect across the rest of that transformation.
Speaker 1 [00:18:17] Well, let’s hear from someone who is working with many of the world’s biggest organizations on all of these challenges. Anna Paula Aziz was listed by Forbes as one of the most powerful women in Brazil. She’s taken her tech talents around the globe, from general manager at IBM in Latin America to other major markets like the U.S. and China, where she’s focused on digital transformation, AI and hybrid cloud strategy. Today, Anna is the chair and general manager for IBM in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. I got to listen to her on an AI panel and she spoke with me afterwards.
Speaker 2 [00:18:54] AI can really drive tremendous productivity. We expect up to $4.4 trillion of annual productivity impact coming from AI. So it’s a big opportunity, and it’s time now to really understand how this is going to be incorporated in our processes and how you work to generate those benefits. It’s early stages that companies are still trying to understand how to get the value out of AI, and at the same time, how to make it safe. I’m excited about improving the productivity that is so needed in the world right now.
Speaker 1 [00:19:25] So there’s that word productivity again. But I think Anna would also stress that productivity is not really so much about what technology can do, but what humans can do with the technology. And it was fascinating to hear from organizations at Davos about what they’re doing in terms of sales force enablement, call centers and even coding. Very few executives who I spoke to were looking to cut their workforces in those areas, but rather use AI to enhance the capabilities of whether it’s a salesperson or someone in a call center or even their elite coders. And they’re finding that people can do significantly more with AI by cutting out a lot of those mundane things that all of us have to do. I’m looking forward to the day when AI can take care of my inbox, and that’s just the kind of time saver that will allow all of us to focus on the more inspiring parts of our jobs, and also the parts that create more value for not just for organizations, but maybe for society.
Speaker 2 [00:20:26] Yeah, that would be the dream. But I think that in order for an organization to get to that point, data governance and hygiene is so key as companies are thinking about, do I invest in AI? Where do I invest in AI? Before you even get to those questions, I think it’s important to get the data that your company owns and generates in order to bring in or train the necessary talent to be able to manage those technical requirements. Companies are only going to get value from those AI tools and investments that are optimized and tweaked for their own industries and sectors. And again, that’s about managing the data that you have and being able to clean it up properly. So yeah, there’s so much legwork that needs to go in before we can really extract the value of these big AI investments.
Speaker 1 [00:21:11] You’re probably very familiar with some of the use cases out there. We’re all familiar with that situation. When you call up a call center and get agitated. They’re now AI applications that help call center staff manage people no matter what state they are in. It’s also helping a lot of salespeople deal with no. As one company explained to me, most of us say no to an initial pitch. Well, AI is actually figuring out ways to get beyond no, and that’s helping salespeople not only increase their productivity, but probably enjoy selling a bit more when you’re not dealing with no all the time. But as you were saying, Theresa, it all comes down to data. And data isn’t just words and numbers. There was a fascinating discussion that I listened to a Davos about visual data. Let’s hear from Nicholas Thompson. He’s the CEO of The Atlantic, which is of course, one of the most respected news organizations in the world. He also chaired this fascinating discussion that included Aiden Gomes from the Canadian startup Cohere, which we’ve had on Disruptors. He’s also the co-founder of speakeasy AI. And here’s some of what he had to say after his panel discussion.
Speaker 3 [00:22:20] AI is probably at the center of a lot of those conversations, because people now recognize that it is genuinely changing jobs. It is genuinely changing the way we work, the way we relate to each other. It is genuinely changing democracy. They want to figure out where it’s going so they can plan their next actions. Well, I just moderated a fantastic panel where we covered three main questions. The first was, will it continue to improve as quickly as it has? And the general consensus was yes, it will change in certain ways. We will have to add video in order to improve it. You have to change the way the models are constructed and the data inputs, but they will improve rapidly. Second question was AGI, should artificial intelligence researchers be trying to build something that is more intelligent than humans? And the consensus was, yeah, you’ve got to do that. You also need to do other things. You need to make it as good as possible at certain tasks, like helping with human biology. And then the third question was a very controversial one of open source. So the panel pretty much agreed that open source models, models that people can modify, that can be shared, are better for increasing access to AI and increasing equality. I think a year from now, we’ll have more examples of how AI has changed industries and changed companies and changed individual lives. Right now, it’s still mostly theoretical and next year it will be more real.
Speaker 2 [00:23:37] So, John, I’m curious, why is the consensus that AI has to be smarter than humans?
Speaker 1 [00:23:44] That was a raging debate on this panel, and it was a fantastic panel that included Yann LeCun, the AI scientist at Meta. And the consensus, after a pretty vigorous debate, is that you can never pull back or rein in intelligence. That is the lesson through millennia of human progress. There are all sorts of aspects of human intelligence that even the most sophisticated AI models are nowhere near replicating. So let’s continue to push our own frontiers of intelligence, but also push machine intelligence, because, like the great space explorers have always said, we just have to explore. We just have to find new frontiers and then decide what to make of it. So maybe it’s a bit of that Buzz Lightyear motto to infinity and beyond.
Speaker 2 [00:24:30] Yeah, and I guess some with the large language models that generative AI systems are built upon now, it’s use mostly text as a way to learn. And, you know, we’ve had discussions about the limitations of learning through just text. I think I had read that the average four year old’s ability to learn is better than the most complex LLMs that exists today. And so what other inputs are required to be able to get to that next stage of intelligence, as you mentioned? Video I think, that is a crucial way, but how do these models incorporate video? I’m not sure.
Speaker 1 [00:25:06] Well, that’s a real shortcoming of AI. In fact, one of my takeaways and great hopes from this panel was a conviction from some of the world’s leading AI scientists that humans are still way smarter than the best AI out there. So maybe that’s a bit of, relief there. But one of the reasons is that we are visual learners and visual communicators. Machines are great with, data sets with text and numbers, but have no real capacity right now to learn from video or visual records. And that’s actually how we all learned as babies and infants. When you’re three and four years old, you’ve learned, as Yann LeCun said, more than you might learn through the rest of your life. And you can’t read a word, and machines are nowhere near there yet.
Speaker 2 [00:25:53] You know, for posterity, the risk averse side of me wants to ensure that with the accumulation and development of this intelligence, that we also build in the proper guardrails and build in the human values that can steer this intelligence rather than just having intelligence for intelligence sake. But it’s housed in a psychopathic model.
Speaker 1 [00:26:14] I love that, a psychopathic model. Well, there are many people who have thought more about that question than Andrew Ng. He has spearheaded so many efforts to democratize deep learning, and he’s taught millions of students through online courses. One of the co-founders of Coursera, Andrew has coauthored more than 300 publications on robotics, and his work in computer vision and deep learning has been awarded on many occasions. Andrew has been named one of Fast Company’s Most Creative People. He’s been named time magazine’s 100 Most Influential People in the world, and most recently, he was named one of the most influential people in AI. Andrew is the founder of Deep learning AI and landing AI. He’s a general partner at AI fund and an adjunct professor at Stanford’s computer science department. I got to talk to him in the hallways at Davos. Here’s his take.
Speaker 3 [00:27:07] AI is relevant to almost everyone here at Davos. I see a lot of excitement about an identifying building, just finding the right use cases for everyone here. It’s been exciting to speak to a lot of people about what they’re doing. Workforce upskilling and identify use cases of how to build and deploy responsive AI into their organizations. The other dimension of the conversations has been on the regulatory track, how regulators can play a constructive role in accelerating safe adoption technology is something still being worked out.
Speaker 1 [00:27:36] It’s one of Andrew’s most provocative lines was you cannot regulate intelligence. And I think that’s the challenge as we think about AI, it’s going to have to have guardrails, as you say, Theresa, but we can’t have regulations that somehow limit those frontiers of intelligence, both human intelligence and machine intelligence. How we get there, open to debate.
Speaker 2 [00:27:58] Yeah, this is a very challenging area. I mean, I don’t know I don’t know the answer to that question either. I had the opportunity to chat with Steve Wozniak last year, and he calls for more regulation of the AI industry. But looking at specifically things that are created by AI and that responsibility for anything created by AI and then shared with the public, has to rest with the person or organization that created it. You know, genie’s out of the bottle, but we need to make sure that users are aware of whatever magic is created and that it can be educated accordingly and behave and react accordingly. So I think that is a very elegant solution to what we have right now. And we’ll see in the next few years what else emerges.
Speaker 1 [00:28:40] What an amazing opportunity to have a conversation with Woz the brains behind so much at Apple. I’m curious, Theresa, what you think and what he thinks of regulating what hasn’t been created.
Speaker 2 [00:28:54] Oh wow, what a deep question. How do you put guardrails around something that doesn’t yet exist? I don’t know, how would you answer that question?
Speaker 1 [00:29:03] Well, I don’t think we can, we can only have principles and certainly repercussions for bad actors. For people who knowingly caused damage to others. There was a lot of debate at Davos, especially between the Europeans and the Americans, as to whether to take a prescriptive and even preventative approach or more of an innovation mindset, to this new frontier of AI. I think we’ll see the Europeans continue to try to prevent missteps, whereas the Americans would prefer to let people take steps. And if there are missteps, then correct for those with whatever mechanisms, society has. No perfect way at it, and we as Canadians will probably find a middle path there. But the world is moving rapidly into a new era of AI, and we all have to be aware of both the opportunities and those risks.
Speaker 2 [00:29:55] Yeah, I think of that early Google ethos; don’t be evil. I think you can’t quite regulate something that it doesn’t yet exist, but you can set an intention for what you hope you can create.
Speaker 1 [00:30:07] What a great word to end with “intention”. We all have to be more intentional when we take on AI. Theresa, thanks so much for being on Disruptors.
Speaker 2 [00:30:16] Thanks for having me John. This has been awesome.
Speaker 1 [00:30:20] This is disruptors, an RBC podcast. I’m John Stackhouse. Talk to you soon.
Speaker 2 [00:30:30] Disruptors an RBC podcast is created by the RBC Thought Leadership group and does not constitute a recommendation for any organization, product or service. For more Disruptors content, visit RBC.com/Disruptors and leave us a five-star rating if you like our show.
Speaker 1 [00:00:01] Hi, it’s John here. Before the holidays, I was in Dubai for the climate conference known as COP28. And whether you’ve been to Dubai or not, when you think of that great cosmopolitan hub of the Persian Gulf, well, you may think of a tropical desert climate or that iconic skyscraper that Tom cruise scaled down in one of the Mission Impossible movies. One morning when I was there to catch the sunrise, I went up the Burj Khalifa and was awestruck to see the sun come over the horizon and light up the desert. And with that, so many different energy sources. Of course, there were the oil rigs and gas facilities, but there were also solar fields and wind fields. And that’s the ambition of the Middle East and the ambition of so many countries in the world today, to diversify through innovation, the kind of energies that we need to power our lives. Hydrogen was the talk of the town in Dubai and maybe, just maybe, the climate tech of the 2020s. As I met people from all around the world at COP, everyone seemed to have an eye on hydrogen. I met some Saudi business leaders who were actually moving to China to help advance green hydrogen. And Americans are all over this. In fact, they’re talking about Texas, the great oil state becoming a green energy hub and exporter of hydrogen for the world. Countries big and small are seeing hydrogen as an opportunity to convert wind and solar and gas and even nuclear into molecules that they can ship to people and to industries all around the world. As hydrogen, and especially green hydrogen, continues to be a hot topic in 2024, Canada is at the centre of many of these conversations, and we’re eyeing a piece of that pie. So can green hydrogen be the next great Canadian energy export? Will it be the tech innovation of the decade? And if so, how can Canada, a country filled with vast renewable resources, navigate the complexities of the technology as well as the economics and politics? This is Disruptors, an RBC podcast. I’m John Stackhouse. The green hydrogen race is on. A report released by Deloitte suggests there’s an investment of $9 trillion needed over the next 25 years — that’s globally — that could create $1.4 trillion per year in exports. How we power our ships, factories and perhaps even our cities is at stake. And sustainable innovation is needed as a vehicle for change. Whether it’s funding, research, infrastructure development or technology advancements across the energy sector, capital markets have a critical role to play in scale and adoption. In Canada, we’re seeing massive commitments to hydrogen projects along the Atlantic coast and up the Saint Lawrence Valley in Quebec that could become a major source of energy exports. But before we hear from some hydrogen innovators, I, for one, wouldn’t mind a hydrogen for dummies. So, we called up Ivette Vera-Perez. She’s president and CEO of the Canadian Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Association. Ivette, welcome to Disruptors.
Speaker 2 [00:03:12] Thank you very much, John.
Speaker 1 [00:03:13] It’s great to have you on the podcast. And if you don’t mind, I want to start with the basic, question what is hydrogen?
Speaker 2 [00:03:19] Hydrogen is an element arguably the most common element on Earth, it’s the lightest element as well. It can combust as well. So that’s what makes it attractive as a fuel source.
Speaker 1 [00:03:31] And we all been hearing about hydrogen in all sorts of places, especially over the last few years. Why is there so much excitement?
Speaker 2 [00:03:37] So hydrogen can be used to displace pretty much any fossil fuel. It is very evident that one of the biggest challenges we’re facing is climate change. And that is where hydrogen can come in, because it’s a valuable vehicle in decarbonizing a number of sectors. The steel industry, for example, one of the highest emitters. You can also decarbonize buildings etc.. So, it is a very versatile vehicle when it comes to decarbonization.
Speaker 1 [00:04:04] There’s an old saying that hydrogen is the energy source of tomorrow and has been for 40 years. Why do you think we’re going to see hydrogen at scale in this decade when we haven’t seen it in previous decades?
Speaker 2 [00:04:17] So the role of hydrogen in decarbonization is a current need, is not a need that we had in the past. The whole world has now embraced hydrogen. So, you’re about to see the economies of scale and a massive number of projects get into final investment decisions. That was not something that you saw a couple of decades ago.
Speaker 1 [00:04:36] We hear a lot about the colors of hydrogen in the so-called hydrogen rainbow. There’s blue hydrogen, grey hydrogen, even pink hydrogen. Can you walk us through the key colors and what’s different about them?
Speaker 2 [00:04:47] Yes. Green hydrogen is hydrogen produced by electrolysis from renewable energy sources, for example, wind or solar. Blue hydrogen is produced from fossil fuels. There’s also, like you said, purple or pink that can be produced from nuclear sources. There is also turquoise and that is hydrogen that is produced by thermally splitting methane. There is yellow hydrogen that is produced from by electrolysis. But using the grid, there is also white hydrogen that occurs in natural form that can be extracted. And the typical hydrogen that we know off from fossil fuels without capturing that would be grey or brown or black if it is from coal. So many, many colors.
Speaker 1 [00:05:49] And how do you make hydrogen from all those different materials and elements?
Speaker 2 [00:05:53] Electrolysis is one process. And by the way, Canada has been since 1905 a leader in electrolysis, the way in which you produce green hydrogen from renewable electricity. The idea is that you basically split water into hydrogen and oxygen. Now, if you did blue, that would be steam methane reforming or auto thermal reforming. And then you capture that CO2.
Speaker 1 [00:06:25] Finally of that as you look into 2024, what are you most excited about?
Speaker 2 [00:06:29] 2024 is going to be a crucial year. I really want to get to the day when, instead of saying hydrogen has the potential to decarbonize in steel, hydrogen has the potential to decarbonize transport that I can say hydrogen is decarbonizing steel, hydrogen is decarbonizing transport. So it’s very much an action year, right?
Speaker 1 [00:06:48] That’s a great message. It’s an action year. Ivette, thanks for explaining hydrogen and making the case for hydrogen.
Speaker 2 [00:06:53] Thank you very much for having me.
Speaker 1 [00:06:56] That really helps set the foundation for our conversation. Now we’ll hear from Gene Gebolys. He’s the CEO of World Energy. Gene and I actually met at that climate conference in Dubai, where we shared a taxi and had a great and really animated conversation. He’s played a leading role in building today’s global biofuels industry. Way back in 1998, he launched World Energy to accelerate the commercialization a viable alternatives to fossil fuels. And today, a quarter century later, World Energy provides a wide range of low carbon solutions focused on helping make net-zero commitments real, including a huge investment in Atlantic Canada. Jean, welcome to Disruptors.
Speaker 3 [00:07:38] Great to be here, John. Thanks for having me.
Speaker 1 [00:07:40] It’s wonderful to have you on the podcast. I wonder if you can give us a bit of a sense, first of all, of World Energy. Tell us about the company and where it’s come from, but also what attracts you to green hydrogen?
Speaker 3 [00:07:51] So, World Energy has been around for a quarter century, and we’re an advanced biofuels company. We started to accumulate assets to produce a biodiesel, one of them being in Hamilton, Ontario. And then about six years ago, we acquired a refinery in Los Angeles, and we became the first commercial scale producer of sustainable aviation fuel. And that led us to, well, we’re making this product out of grey hydrogen. How do we improve the carbon characteristics of the hydrogen? And we started World Energy Gh2 to really focus on Atlantic Canada as a super promising place for the production of hydrogen. That’s kind of the genesis of how we got from a quarter century of advanced biofuels production into focus on Atlantic Canada and green hydrogen production.
Speaker 1 [00:08:41] So one thing has led to another to another, what’s the appeal? You’re talking to us from Boston, where you’re based. What caught your eye in Atlantic Canada?
Speaker 3 [00:08:52] Well, one, you have to have an exceptional renewable resource. Two, you’ve got to be able to build the project in a place where people want the project to be built. And three, you’ve got to do it in a place where the host country is going to support the development of the project. If you can’t answer all three of those to the affirmative, don’t do it. The province has been extremely thorough and very supportive. We were out talking to the local First Nations’ leaders about what their thoughts would be about this. So it’s been really a team effort out there. I couldn’t believe it when I think it was in November, there was a rally in Stephenville in a town of, I think 1500 people. They had about 2000 people there rallying in favour of the project, uh, which is pretty unusual. We’re doing a big project in Los Angeles. I don’t think anybody’s ever held a rally for us in LA. We get good local support, but not like we get in Stephenville.
Speaker 1 [00:09:52] Stephenville, for those folks who haven’t been there, is pretty different from LA. It’s an old mill town for those who aren’t familiar. But when the wind picks up on that coast, boy, it’s a force.
Speaker 3 [00:10:02] Yeah, the project name is Nujio’qonik, which means “where the sand blows” in the native tongue. And this is one of the best wind locations on planet Earth. I don’t know if it’s fortuitous or just flat out lucky that we kind of focus in on this area, but it is, without question, one of the greatest places on planet Earth to be working on a project like this.
Speaker 1 [00:10:30] Geve, I wonder if you can tell us a bit about the tech model, and then we’ll get into the business model. So, you’ve got all this wind around Stephenville, but obviously there’s not a lot of demand for that electricity. So, you got to turn it into something and ship it. So walk us in lay terms if you don’t mind through how that happens.
Speaker 3 [00:10:47] Yeah. So, hydrogen’s a very small molecule. And so the way you move hydrogen long distances is usually to convert it into something else. So, as you said currently there’s not a lot of hydrogen use in around the West Coast in Newfoundland. And so, the fundamental concept is you take the wind resource that would otherwise just blow and not be captured, capture that wind, convert that wind and water into hydrogen, and shipping it to where you need to ship it to — Europe being the most likely target. The interesting thing that’s emerging is the opportunity to potentially keep the hydrogen local in Newfoundland. So that’s something that we’re developing now. But it’s got really tremendous promise in terms of a longer term view for how can you take the resources of the province, upgrade those resources in the province, and then the reduction in carbon intensity in that conversion process right there, can be sold into the marketplace for its carbon reduction characteristics.
Speaker 1 [00:11:57] All of this is going to require huge amounts of capital, billions and billions of dollars. How are you thinking about de-risking that investment?
Speaker 3 [00:12:08] This is an enormous endeavor. As you know, this is scoped out at about a $12 billion project. You’ve got to put together partnerships. It’s host country, destination country, the supplier, the off taker. These are highly integrated endeavors in which you’re satisfying a whole range of objectives as you try to produce a commodity in a lower carbon way. Most importantly, you have to answer the question about how are we going to pay for that carbon difference? You can do it through government regulation. You can do it through subsidy. But most importantly, you’ve ultimately got to do it based on market dynamics and the service gets monetized separately. We’re in the early days of looking at all hard to abate sectors in this manner, where this is really an economic problem as much as anything, right? You need to be able to connect customers who want something with the supply of that something. The problem in these hard to abate sectors, whether it’s cement or steel or aviation, is the moving the molecules around to create the lower carbon products. So you’ve got to make the differential as cheap as it can possibly be, and then make up the difference in a way that you can count on monetizing the spread to the higher carbon alternatives.
Speaker 1 [00:13:36] We’ve been talking a lot about what you’re doing in Stephenville, and that’s impressive. There’s also incredibly impressive things going on around the world in hydrogen generally and green hydrogen specifically. You’re a global investor, as I mentioned earlier, based in Boston. What if you can give us a sense of what Canada’s got, what our strengths are in eyes of an investor and operator like you, and also maybe what some of our weaknesses are that we need to come to grips with as global competition heats up.
Speaker 3 [00:14:07] Hmm. Well, Canada is just an ideal place to do the kind of work that we’re doing. The work we’re doing is very land intensive. So in a place with very low population density, like where we’re operating in Newfoundland, where you’ve got very supportive local communities, uh, you’ve got the land. Canada being a G7 country in a world in which we’re increasingly sensitive to geopolitical risk — super helpful. There are places in northern Africa, for example, that have really good wind resources, but a lot more geopolitical risk than does Canada. So, Canada has an immense amount of natural benefit to be arguably the leading player globally in the emergence of clean hydrogen.
Speaker 1 [00:14:57] What are we lacking or what do we need to come to grips with to be that?
Speaker 3 [00:15:02] Look, I think, I think the jury’s still out on whether Canada can muster the national will to do really big things. And the global stage, Canada is sometimes seen as mired in process, can’t do things that are obviously in its own interest and sometimes lack political will. And I think that’s a big, sweeping assessment. I hope it doesn’t come across from an American like an indictment, but I think that is the question, uh.
Speaker 1 [00:15:30] Because a lot of Canadians would share that view.
Speaker 2 [00:15:32] Yeah, I don’t think I’m going out on a limb, I’m not making it up.
Speaker 1 [00:15:35] It’s important to hear that from others, too.
Speaker 2 [00:15:37] Yeah. But I think that that’s the real question mark. Can Canada come together at the provincial level, at the local level, at the national level and say, look, this is going to be something we’re going to do?
Speaker 1 [00:15:49] I wonder, Gene, if I can wrap up with a final question about 2024 and what excites you most and what concerns you as we look at the year ahead?
Speaker 1 [00:15:58] Well, what excites me most is this, uh, potential to move beyond just government action. And what really excites me is private sector first movers, who are looking to create a low carbon solutions for consumers. That really allows tremendous economic power to get unleashed. You know, it’s hard for me to describe effectively how much economic power there comes from being able to sell decarbonization separate from the physical molecule that enables that. This is called insetting many people familiar with offsets. These are insets because they’re in sector displacement of carbon. That’s a super powerful force. And in 2024, that really starts to move beyond its infancy.
Speaker 1 [00:16:49] What a great message to wrap up with, Gene. Thank you so much for being on Disruptors.
Speaker 2 [00:16:53] John, it’s been a blast, I appreciate it.
Speaker 1 [00:17:06] Our next guest is Marco Alvera. He’s the CEO of Tree Energy Solutions (TES), which is one of the world’s leading hydrogen players. TES operates globally and has ambitious plans in Quebec, where it’s aiming to build a massive green hydrogen plant. Marco, welcome to Disruptors.
Speaker 2 [00:17:23] Thanks, John. Good to be here.
Speaker 1 [00:17:25] Let’s start with the name TES. Where did that come from?
Speaker 2 [00:17:28] So the idea is that we are inspired by nature. And when you look at a tree, the tree grows by absorbing carbon in the trunk. And the wood is actually made of carbon. So there’s this whole notion that carbon is bad. Of course, it’s very bad if it’s in the atmosphere because it causes global warming, but it can be very useful in nature. And so what the whole premise is that we use carbon as a means of moving renewable energy from where it’s abundant and cheap to where it’s needed. And the whole idea is to make it as natural as possible and to make it as cheap as possible.
Speaker 1 [00:17:59] And this fits into your model, even philosophy of, if I can put it that way around a circular carbon economy. We’re talking about green hydrogen in this episode. Where does green hydrogen and how does green hydrogen fit into that circular carbon economy?
Speaker 2 [00:18:14] So let’s start off with some key facts. Green hydrogen has been prohibitively expensive. I used to hate hydrogen. I loved it as a molecule, but never thought it would work just because of costs. To put it into perspective, when oil was at $20 per megawatt hour. Green hydrogen was about $1,000 per megawatt hour. Now we have oil that went up to about 60, 50, $60 a megawatt hour. The cost of the cheapest solar and hydro and wind is way down to about 20, 30, $40 a megawatt hour. So cheaper than oil. So what hydrogen is, is a means of turning that solar and wind and hydropower into a molecule, into a fuel that we can use. So hydrogen is not a source of energy. It’s a way of moving electric energy into fuels. So this is a new market. It’s going to be a big market. It’s going to be a market, you know bigger than the market for oil today. It’s all going to happen in the next 20-30 years. So it’s very exciting opportunity a. To save the world and and try to stay within two or as close to two degrees as possible. But also it’s a huge business opportunity. We’re going to be building a new energy system which is more resilient, cheaper geopolitically, more spread out and really exciting.
Speaker 1 [00:19:32] What attracted you to Canada and also to Quebec?
Speaker 2 [00:19:36] Canada is just a terrific country when it comes to the opportunity for green hydrogen, and it’s a country that has significant gas demand, significant space, significant renewable potential in Quebec and elsewhere, and could potentially and will become a big export centre as well for green energy. The opportunity specifically is to take hydropower and take biogenic CO2 and come and create this hydrogen. So we create synthetic methane and we serve that locally to a utility. And this is very circular. So it’s this idea that you can use what’s otherwise maybe far away or maybe hard to store. And you kind of turn what is a renewable energy source into a fuel that you can use in today’s infrastructure.
Speaker 1 [00:20:39] Walk us through the hydrogen component of this and what your vision is for Project Mauricie and Quebec.
Speaker 2 [00:20:46] So the idea is rather simple. You take, uh, hydro power and you use those electrons. You run them through what is called an electrolyzer. And the electrolyzer has the ability to separate in water the oxygen from the hydrogen. The hydrogen will then be used for two separate purposes. One as pure hydrogen for local demand. So that’s a market that you serve directly with hydrogen. There’s other markets which are now served by natural gas where if you were to serve them with hydrogen you would need to change some infrastructure, the burners, some pipes, some valves. And so instead of changing the infrastructure to accept hydrogen as a fuel, you turn hydrogen into synthetic methane, which is a fuel that you can use immediately. So that’s the business case is to build two products. One is a byproduct of the other. So hydrogen is call it the base product. And ENG is a byproduct of hydrogen.
Speaker 1 [00:21:50] What do you anticipate will be the most significant and uses for this hydrogen?
Speaker 2 [00:21:55] So if I look at hydrogen in general, it’s best applied to so-called hard to abate sectors. So it’s uh ships, it’s long distance trucks, it’s, uh steel. And, and also, uh, wherever you need storage, which is beyond a few hours. So the uses for hydrogen is essentially wherever you can’t use the batteries or direct electrification. The other benefit of hydrogen is that you can move it around much cheaper than electricity, because you don’t have to build the high voltage grids. You use the existing gas system. This is where countries like Canada have a starting advantage, because there’s a lot of natural gas infrastructure in the country, built over decades and decades, worth billions and billions of dollars, that can be used immediately and seamlessly to move the renewable energy around.
Speaker 1 :22:43] Marco, I’d like to ask about a couple of challenges. One is geography and the other is the risk horizon for hydrogen. So first, on geography. For those who aren’t familiar with the Mauricie area around Shawinigan, it’s one of the most beautiful parts of the country. It’s also far from a lot of the industrial centres that are going to need a lot of that clean power that you’re talking about. Is that a factor at all in how you’ve been thinking about the project?
Speaker 2 [00:23:08] So, the opportunity for hydrogen is just that, you can move it invisibly because it’s in an existing, uh, pipeline system. So you don’t need to touch anything with the environment. The footprint of the Electrolyzer is very, very small. The visual impact is negligible, and it allows you to move renewable energy from where it’s available. And in Canada, it’s at least in the same state. You know, what we’re doing in Texas is moving it from Texas to Germany. We’re taking solar and wind from Texas and moving it into a factory in Germany by converting that solar and wind into hydrogen. So the distance is actually the opportunity, because it allows you to go and tap into the cheapest renewable energy in the world. And that’s the only way we’re going to make renewable energy cheaper than oil.
Speaker 1 [00:23:53] Talk to us a bit, Macro, about the financial risk questions around hydrogen. You referred to a 20 to 30 year time horizon. It’s great to have investors who have that long view. But, uh, sometimes those investors can be few and far between. How are you managing the risk outlook around hydrogen as well as business models that are evolving?
Speaker 2 [00:24:15] So I spent 20 years working in oil and gas. And, uh, these are some of the lowest risk projects I’ve ever seen. First of all, everything you’re building is above the ground. You don’t have any geological risk. It is a capital intensive business, but it’s very financeable because we’re using existing technologies to transform what could be stranded assets. If I think of a solar and wind. I was yesterday in, in Saudi Arabia, uh, if you if you think about some of the massive solar potential you have in the deserts, you turn that stranded solar into something that you can sell, uh, for a fixed price in a different part of the world for the long term. So the risk adjusted returns are very attractive. You don’t have the volatility you have when you’re investing in oil and gas, and you don’t have the unpredictability when you’re drilling below the ground. And you may encounter some different geology than what you were expecting above the ground. And it’s all tried and tested. So, technologies will evolve, prices will come down. But my key message, as we have today, all the technologies we need to really scale this up, uh, gradually, uh, but very significant.
Speaker 1 [00:25:29] What do you see as the key obstacles that you and others are going to need to overcome in the coming years?
Speaker 2 [00:25:35] So the biggest challenge is to make the cost of electrolyzers lower. I’ve been writing about this for the last 5 or 6 years. I’ve been investing in electrolyzer companies. I really see the trend going down, but I think it’s up to us as an industry to help accelerate that cost curve and avoid what happened with solar. Solar went from 1000 to 10 over 15 years period, and China built all the manufacturing for those panels. Hopefully when it comes to Electrolyzer, there’s going to be electrolyzers in Canada and the US and Europe as well as in China, and we can have more of a global competition and really help drive those costs down.
Speaker 1 [00:26:10] Before we move to close, Marco, I wonder if I can ask you a final question about the year ahead. You’re an optimistic person. You’re an entrepreneur. You’re a builder. You’ve shared with us some of the concerns and challenges. I’m curious what gives you the most hope in 2024 and what you’re looking to see in the coming year when it comes to green hydrogen?
Speaker 2 [00:26:28] So we had a very important COP, the last COP, which is the UN climate conference that was held in Dubai. It was critically important because the world agreed to start phasing away from fossil fuels gradually, constructively. But the direction of travel is set. I hope that the next COP, which is going to be in Azerbaijan, will be finally a COP, where we go from talk to action. There’s a big gap between the ambition and the reality. If 24′ is the year of the FIDs, which means the final investment decision, which means the project has moved from paperwork essentially in contracts and negotiations to steel, that will be very, very good news for climate, for business. And I’m very optimistic, but I’m also very pragmatic. And so I know the limits of what can be done and what cannot be done. And we’re very focused on executing on these projects because they absolutely can and will be done.
Speaker 1 [00:27:24] What a great note to wrap up on. This can be the year of FIDs of final investment decisions. Marco, thank you so much for being on Disruptors.
Speaker 2 [00:27:31] Thank you. Great to be with you.
Speaker 1 [00:27:37] It’s hard not to be excited about the potential of green hydrogen. But of course, hydrogen has always had more potential than payoff. Maybe that’s changing. Maybe this will be the year of accelerated change. There are certainly extraordinary things underway around the world, and Canada can be at the front of the pack. We have an abundance of renewable energy, the solar and wind power that hydrogen relies on. And we have the infrastructure. Think of the hydro lines and pipelines that are the backbone of a hydrogen economy, that can make us a global player. Of course, the hydrogen promise is about more than our carbon footprint and developing cleaner sources of energy. It’s about thinking of a new industrial model for our economy. Green hydrogen can be about our future energy mix. It can open avenues for economic growth and job creation. And by addressing the challenges head on, Canada can be a global hydrogen leader. Until next time. I’m John Stackhouse and this is disruptors, an RBC podcast. Talk to you soon.
Speaker 4 [00:28:44] Disruptors and RBC podcast is created by the RBC Thought Leadership Group and does not constitute a recommendation for any organization, product or service. For more Disruptors content, visit RBC.com/Disruptors and leave us a five-star rating if you like our show.
Speaker 1 [00:00:01] Hi, it’s John here. Welcome back and happy New Year. I don’t know if you’re like me and make New Year’s predictions and even resolutions. I won’t bore you with mine, but I was struck this year by how negative so many outlooks were for 2024. It seems like we all need to brace ourselves for a pretty bumpy year ahead. Now, 2023 was a year of disruptive change, with the cost-of-living crisis, rising geopolitical tensions, the ongoing climate emergency and rapid technological transformation.
Speaker 2 [00:00:32] Will inflation get better for Canadians who are really feeling the price?
Speaker 1 [00:00:37] Countries continue to deal with the aftermath of the pandemic. With inflation and looming recessions. Tensions in the Middle East have escalated further tonight, and Israel continues. There’s the Hamas Israel conflict, civil war in Sudan and so many other places. The ongoing war in Ukraine, they all continue to have far reaching implications.
Speaker 2 [00:00:55] According to the United Nations, India surpassed China as the most populous country on the planet.
Speaker 1 [00:01:00] For the first time in more than two centuries, the global order has shifted. India’s population eclipse China’s.
Speaker 2 [00:01:07] 2023 is set to be the warmest year on record.
Speaker 1 [00:01:10] Climate change is no longer a threat, it’s the world’s new reality.
Speaker 2 [00:01:13] If there’s one word that’s been at the top of every tech companies mind lately, it’s AI.
Speaker 1 [00:01:20] ChatGPT, and AI, they’re exploding onto the scene, and new technologies continue to disrupt our daily ways of doing things. But amid all that murky backdrop, there’s always hope and opportunity. There’s a tech resurgence already underway, and it may rise like a phoenix from the Silicon ashes. A future filled with AI is no longer a concept, it’s a dynamic reality shaping the future before our eyes.
Speaker 2 [00:01:44] The second biggest item in the budget after health, is boosting clean energy.
Speaker 1 [00:01:48] And advancements in clean tech continue to be a driving force for progress. Innovative technologies seek to revolutionize the way we connect, create, and work to solve some of the most pressing issues. To come this year on disruptors. We’ll continue speaking with Champions of Change and Icons of Innovation as they navigate the twists and turns of an increasingly disruptive world. We can’t promise a smooth road ahead, but we will do our best to help you navigate it. 2024 isn’t just a new year. It promises to be a pragmatic shift into a digitally charged future. So, join us next week as we kick off the 2024 edition of disruptors with a special look at green hydrogen. Will it be the tech sensation of the 2020s or just another distant promise? Until then, I’m John Stackhouse and this is Disruptors, an RBC podcast.
Speaker 2 [00:02:45] Disruptors, an RBC podcast is created by the RBC Thought Leadership group and does not constitute a recommendation for any organization, product or service. For more Disruptors content, visit RBC.com/Disruptors and leave us a five-star rating if you like our show.
Speaker 1 [00:00:01] Hey, it’s Theresa, and I’m back for a special edition of Disruptors. Today, John is in the hot seat to talk about his time at COP28 in Dubai. This year, there are about 100,000 people on the ground officially making it the largest U.N. climate summit ever. And while the conference is no stranger to controversy and at times disappointment, it was also filled with collaboration and innovation, with some historic agreements made in the fight against climate change. So what was Canada’s role in the world stage? What are some of the key takeaways from this year’s climate talks? And what can we be hopeful about as we look to the future? This is a special edition of Disruptors an RBC podcast. I’m Theresa Do.
Speaker 1 [00:00:55] John, it’s great to see you. It’s great to be back on the podcast. It’s been so long and I’m really excited to get into your trip abroad and to hear more about all the historic agreements and conversations that have been made that are so important to the work that we’re doing at RBC and of course to the broader global context.
Speaker 2 [00:01:14] Thanks for much. It’s great to be with you again.
Speaker 1 [00:01:16] So can you set the stage for our listeners? What was it like this time around? How was this cop different from the previous cops you attended from other global conferences such as Davos? What was the vibe like?
Speaker 2 [00:01:29] So this is called COP28, which means there’s been 28 of these. This one was like no other. Imagine 100,000 people gathering in Dubai, one of the world’s great oil centers, to talk about the climate crisis. So that was a bit of a mind shift for a lot of people. That was three times the number who were at Glasgow, which was, of course, a historic climate conference. But a different way of looking at that number is to think of it in terms of the challenge to the planet. This is a huge, maybe the biggest challenge to the world, and it’s going to take a lot more than 100,000 people to solve it. So we do need big gatherings of people to work through some of these epic challenges. Dubai was a really interesting place for a climate conference and there was a lot of resistance on that fact. A year ago, I remember people talking about boycotting it and that kind of faded away. I think people realized whether you are for or against or neutral about oil and gas, we have to come to grips with oil and gas if we’re going to get to net zero. So let’s do that with the people who produce it. And we all consume it in different ways and work through some of the challenges. And that many ways is what COP 28 became. It became an oil and gas conference that was the first and the last order of business. Lots of other things that went on that we’ll talk about.
Speaker 1 [00:02:52] Yeah, and in some ways, to be able to meet those epic challenges, you have to open the tent and ensure that everybody is at the table, including those who had the major oil corporations in the world. So let’s dig into some of those epic challenges and some of the successes and agreements that were reached. Can we talk about methane? Can you share more about the methane agreement that was reached?
Speaker 2 [00:03:12] Yeah, well, that’s probably the most significant material thing to come out of this court. Maybe the declaration on fossil fuels at the end is also going to have some significant lasting impact. But the methane agreement, I mean, some people are comparing it to and I’m going to go back to the 1980s here, but to the Montreal Protocol that dealt with CFCs, the stuff that comes out of refrigerators and was causing holes in the ozone layer. I’m not sure we’re at that yet with methane, but this was an agreement by most of the world’s methane producers, including Canada, to get methane emissions down by 75% by 2030. That’s a major, some may say massive commitment. And now it’s a challenge to actually do it. But it’s important to have a goal like that to then turn to action. The core methane challenge comes from natural gas production. So you drill a well and you’ve got to essentially allow methane to leak or go into the atmosphere. If you try to contain it, things are going to explode. So that’s not a good thing. But there’s actually ways of capturing the methane and reusing it or keeping it from going into the atmosphere. The industry’s already been on this actually for economic reasons. And frankly, a lot of the best climate action in the world is driven by economic necessity. So gas companies and oil and gas companies have been working on reducing methane for a number of years. Canada has been a leader in this. Now it’s time for action. So all eyes are going to be on both the private sector and the governments that regulate them to see how progress is being made.
Speaker 1 [00:04:50] And if we stay on oil and gas for a moment. COP28 reached an historic agreement to phase out fossil fuels. Of course, there’s very precise language that was bantered back and forth for 48 hours or so. Can you tell us more about this agreement, why it’s historic and what that means for the future?
Speaker 2 [00:05:09] It’s always interesting to see people and nation states and their governments get really fired up about language and word choice. And this cop was almost inflamed by that choice of words about phasing out or phasing down fossil fuels. And it was politics and diplomacy at Decibel 11. On some days, the Saudis were very audible in encouraging other countries, especially other oil producers, not to agree to anything that might spell the end of oil. In the end, and this is what diplomacy often does. Fresh words were put on the table about transitioning away from fossil fuels. Some people see that as watering down of the language. But I think a different interpretation is that this is the first time a COP conference and by extension the United Nations. So the community of nations has put on paper and people have signed a declaration about fossil fuels coming to an end. Is this the end of the oil era? Well, if it is, wow, that just happened in Dubai, right in the middle of the Persian Gulf. That’s an incredible moment, but we’ll see. These are just words. And now it’s going to be to action. But there were also some important words that were associated with it. That, you know, we have to stick to the timeline as dictated by science, which is sort of code for we’ve got to get to net zero by 2050. We’ve got to reduce oil and gas production before 2050 to get there. And other declarations from science that will no doubt be the stuff of future cops and ongoing heated debates.
Speaker 1 [00:06:45] And from my understanding, Canada played a very important, orchestrating role in reaching the final words in this agreement. In another area, in Agriculture, Canada also plays a leading role in supplying food and the necessary inputs for agriculture production for the world. And there was also a deal reached on agriculture at COP. Is there anything you can share about that?
Speaker 2 [00:07:10] Yeah. It’s important to remind ourselves of the role that Canada does play and is expected to play on the world stage. Steven Guilbeault The Environment and Climate Change Minister has been to every cop as he likes to remind people. He’s a bit of a cop junky, but he’s respected by the crowd there. Canada’s willingness and ability to host the biodiversity summit a year ago in Montreal was really important to China, which was not able to host it because of COVID. So the Chinese, I think, have a willingness, at least in climate negotiations, to listen more to Canada. And we’re seen as a bridge builder with developing countries with other oil and gas producing nations. We are the fourth largest oil producer in the world with the United States, which is our neighbor and active trade partner. So Canada does have a special seat at the table and is able, especially in contentious moments, often to build those bridges. Agriculture is one of the areas where Canada does play a leading role, but I think there was a bit of disappointment on the AG front. This was the first cop that AG was center stage. There was a full food, water and Agriculture Day, which is an important declaration by the United Nations to say that AG is central just as oil and gas is and other sectors to our journey to net zero. But what are we going to do about it? It’s fine to shine a light on it. It’s fine to say the positive role that AG can play. So maybe this is baby steps. We have to make much greater commitments, especially on the financing of agriculture, to help farmers continue to develop sustainable agriculture and climate smart agriculture techniques and to ensure that they’re rewarded for those that this isn’t a punishment or a regulation on farmers, but is in fact an economic opportunity for them.
Speaker 1 [00:09:05] Do you see lasting change to how the world produces food coming out of this COP?
Speaker 2 [00:09:12] So an interesting fact about this, this cop, if you’re going to have a hundred thousand people, especially in a confined area, you’re going to have to feed and water them. In fact, the last cop to Egypt became a bit of a bit controversial because they ran out of food and water in the in the early days. They resolved it. But certainly people remember that a year later.
Speaker 1 [00:09:32] Oh, dear.
Speaker 2 [00:09:32] And the host, the UAE, had plenty of food for sale for 100,000 people who were there. And the majority of the food was plant based. And that was an important statement, I think, by the UAE that you can offer food at scale. And it was fantastic and very creative and represented the cuisines from multiple continents. But you can do that in a creative and economically mindful way. So an interesting proof point to to the world and to your question, how do we change the production as well as the consumption of food? The world’s growing. We’ve written about this from the RBC Climate Action Institute perspective. We’re going to have to play a role in helping to feed nine, maybe 10 billion people and do that in a way that reduces emissions. So that’s going to mean some adjustments to diet, but it also means we’re going to have to invest more in abatement technologies. So things like anaerobic digesters that capture the stuff that comes out of livestock because animal protein is going to remain critical for a long time. How to help those farmers with the technologies and the measurement systems to change their soil practices, to capture more greenhouse gases in their soil and reward that. So it’s not just changing practices, it’s changing economic models to ensure that the producers, the ones who manage emissions on the planet’s behalf, are rewarded for their work.
Speaker 1 [00:10:59] Mm hmm. Yeah. Especially as we’re heading into the holidays. Now, I think the call to change both the supply side of agriculture, but also the demand side and how we consume, I think that’s a very important reminder for folks about what we put on our Christmas table, our holiday table being a real important step for the future. So moving now to buildings, which is the third largest emitter in Canada, 40% of emissions worldwide. At COP Canada, along with the UAE, announced the cement and concrete breakthrough initiative, which is important as a way to signal to the world that these critical inputs and materials need to change. So what did you hear on the ground there? What do you make of this initiative and how do you see it making an impact?
Speaker 2 [00:11:43] There aren’t many better places for this kind of discussion than Dubai. It’s one of these fantastic newish cities literally growing out of the desert in the last half century, but critically, in the last 25 years. It’s hard to spend any time in Dubai without hurting your neck, looking up, up on up. All these new towers, including the tallest in the world, are their made out of glass and steel predominantly, and a lot of energy, a lot of burning of fossil fuels goes into creating that glass and steel and cement that we all need for the cities that we enjoy and the kinds of cities that much of the world is looking for. So when we look at Dubai, be mindful that millions, maybe billions of people are saying that’s the kind of city we need in our country as our economy grows. That was one estimate. I heard a COP that the world is going to double the built environment over the next 25 years. So we’re going to see more Dubai’s around Africa, across Asia, as populations grow and people need places to live and work. And we know how to build those cities. We just don’t know how to build them in a climate minded way. So we need a number of things in the built sector, but a different approach to materials is critical. And that was an important agreement there. There’s a lot of chatter about the number of business people now at COP, and in some ways has become almost a business conference. But I ran into a number of executives and engineers and even architects from around the world who were there to learn from each other, but also to look at new materials, new technologies so that they can go home and rethink or reimagine the way that they put up their next high rise or build their next expressway. So that’s another important side of COP. It’s not just diplomats negotiating words, it’s people who actually make climate action happen on the ground, coming together to share ideas and also push each other for these technological changes that are going to be needed to ensure when it comes to buildings, but many other sectors, that we do things differently over the next 25 years.
Speaker 1 [00:13:53] And a great opportunity for Canada to lead and offer our own learnings over the past several decades.
Speaker 2 [00:13:59] Well, some of the biggest developers in the region are great Canadian companies. It’s one of our exports. We’re a nation of developers. You have to be in a cold climate, but a nation of great engineers and planners and architects who are out there in the world helping to build those cities of tomorrow. And it would be great to see Canada play an even greater role in building the net zero cities of tomorrow.
Speaker 1 [00:14:27] As we wrap up this conversation, John, hoping to get your reflections on what more would you have liked to see from COP this year?
Speaker 2 [00:14:37] What a great question, Theresa. I think there is a number of things that fell a bit or a lot short. One is on finance. This is going to take trillions of dollars and the world is still falling really, really, really short in terms of mobilizing the capital for the transition. Developing countries, the low income countries of the world, continue to come to COP expressing their frustration that they need funds and it’s not handouts. A lot of this is debt financed to build those new cities that we’re talking about or to invest in new energy systems, in renewables. I got to spend time with different representatives of African countries who said, we know what we want to do. We know what we need to do. We can’t do it when we’re having to borrow money at 10% on international markets. And yes, that’s perfectly understandable. Part of that is out of anyone’s control because it’s just the nature of monetary policy cycles right now. But there remains a big finance gap. And we have to find ways for multilateral institutions like the World Bank to do more in terms of mobilizing capital. But it’s not just on the shoulders of, let’s say, the World Bank. Organizations like that also have to leverage the private sector that’s got multiple, multiple times the capital to move to climate opportunities, especially in the developing world. So how do we de-risk that? How do we imagine new ways to take the world’s savings and channel them into climate investments, especially in the places that need it most? COP also continues to be largely a supply side conversation. It’s about the supply of energy, the supply of food products, the supply of buildings, and not enough focus in my mind on the demand side. What can we all do as citizens? What should we all do as citizens, as consumers, as investors to help the world transition faster? So it’s fine to have our governments there making these declarations, but no government can force people to behave differently, to drive or eat differently. And maybe there’s a role for COP, especially in this virtual world, not just to be a conference of 100,000 people, but to be a coming together of millions and millions of people, even in virtual ways, to come to grips with the decisions, the big ones, but also the little ones that each of us makes on a a daily and hourly basis.
Speaker 1 [00:16:58] Well, that might be one of the hardest challenges that exists, how to overcome our own behaviour and change what we have grown so used to. John, this has been such an excellent conversation. It was great to be back on the pod with you. Thank you for sharing all of your insights. And I guess I’ll see you around the office.
Speaker 2 [00:17:16] Theresa, it’s great to have you on the podcast. Please come back. That’s our last episode for 2023. On behalf of all of us here at Disruptors, have a safe and happy holiday and please join us again in the New Year. Until then, I’m John Stackhouse and this is Disruptors, an RBC podcast.
Speaker 3 [00:17:42] Disruptors and RBC podcast is created by the RBC Thought Leadership Group and does not constitute a recommendation for any organization, product or service. For more Disruptors content, visit RBC.com/disruptors and leave us a five-star rating, if you like our show.
Speaker 1 [00:00:02] Hi, it’s John here. As you may have heard on our first episode, AI is going to be a theme right through the season. It’s transforming every sector and every part of the country, and we’re excited to learn where the opportunities are, as well as where the dangers may lie. And so we’re pleased to present this special bonus episode of Disruptors to you. It’s an edited recording of a recent session of the Business and Higher Education Roundtable hosted here in Toronto. The roundtable represents some of Canada’s biggest employers and leading educators and tackles some of the most pressing issues facing Canadian prosperity. The Roundtable’s recent annual meeting focused on AI and kicked off with a special presentation from Joel Blit, Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Waterloo. It’s called Navigating the AI Revolution. You’ll also hear highlights of a panel discussion with Dave McKay, RBC CEO, Anthony Viel, CEO of Deloitte Canada, and Mara Lederman, COO of Signal One, a leading AI start-up. The conversation, hosted by Valerie Walker, the roundtable’s CEO focused on several themes, including the hype around AI, workforce implications, the practicality of adoption, ethics and accuracy, and Canada’s challenges in becoming a global leader in AI applications, as well as AI research. Have a listen and let us know what you think.
Speaker 2 [00:01:32] Today, I want to talk to you about AI and how AI is going to basically change the economy, and even more so, going to change the world. But more importantly, I want to talk to you about what the opportunities are going to be for you, for your organization, and hopefully also for our country. So I’m going to start by talking about what I think is Canada’s grand challenge at this point in time. But then I’m going to start talking about what the big opportunity is to change the trajectory. Specifically, I’ll talk about AI but before I get there, I want to go back in history a little bit and talk about other general purpose technologies, because they’re going to give us some insights as to how AI itself is going to be developed, is going to develop over time, is going to be adopted, and the opportunities that it’s going to bring to us if we grab them. Okay, so that’s the lay of the land. Because this group really cares about jobs and skills, I’m going to have a few things to say about that at the end as well.
[2:23] Okay. So let’s start with Canada’s challenge. Obviously, the challenge that I’m speaking about is Canada’s innovation, productivity and growth gap. What I have here, I’m showing you Canada’s labour productivity and that of the other G7 countries over the last half century. Right. Or last 50 years. And specifically what I’m doing is I’ve normalized all of them at the year 1970 to be 100. And so I’m showing you the growth in productivity over the last 50 years. And what you can see is that Canada’s growth is dead last over this period. Now, there’s many reasons for that. The industrial mix, the fact that we’re not investing as much in technology, some would say that our managers are not as sophisticated as in the US, but by and large I would argue that it’s a lack of R&D and a lack of innovation. So the culprit, lack of business R&D, if you look at R&D intensity, what you see is that Canada again is dead last. It actually gets worse than that. This is R&D intensity by business, right? So government actually does a decent job, but it gets worse than that because we’re actually the only G7 country that has actually decreased their R&D intensity over the last 20 years. Now, it won’t surprise you then that we’re also dead last when it comes to innovation as measured by Triadic patents. We’re tied with Italy in this regard. And so if you put this together, of course, we’re not going to be doing all that well in terms of economic growth. And maybe the biggest thing that I worry about is the things that us Canadians we identify with, which is our public services. So things like our quality health care, public health, our quality public education, those are very things that are going to be at risk. We may not be able to afford them unless we change the trajectory. And so that’s fundamentally what we’re talking about. It’s almost an existential threat to how we identify as Canadians. All right. So bad news over.
[4:07] So there were several articles in The Economist last week saying how AI is going to accelerate science, scientific research, accelerate innovation. It’s going to help us solve climate change, is going to help cure disease, all of which I think are to a large extent true. But we also hear about the end of work and we also hear about an existential threat to humanity itself. So I am going to talk about AI in a second. As I said before that I want to go back into history and look at other general purpose technologies, because I think that they have a lot to tell us about how we can ground the opportunities of AI. So when I talk about general purpose technologies, as economists, what we mean is technologies like the steam engine, like electricity, like computers and the ICT revolution. And these technologies all have three things in common. Right? So the first is that they’re pervasive. And by that, I mean that they’re not just going to be in one sector of the economy or one industry. They’re not going to have just one application. They’re going to be broad based in a whole bunch of different areas. The second thing is that they undergo ongoing improvement. So it’s not a technology that is going to arrive and be fixed and therefore deployed. It’s constantly going to be improving, getting better and changing. And the last one, which is also really important, is, it is subject to innovation, complementarities. And what I mean by that is that these technologies are not just evolving themselves. There’s complementary technologies that are evolving as well, and there’s an interplay between them. So all of these characteristics imply, first of all, that general purpose technologies are going to be transformational. They’re going to have a huge impact on society. They’re going to change things. I’m sure all of you knew that before. But the other thing is that it usually takes decades to truly feel the impact. And so that’s the first lesson, right, is that it takes time. And so we shouldn’t expect too much in the short run. But the other lesson from history, I think is even more important is that the adoption of this technology is going to follow a fairly predetermined path. And so this I call the three phases of adoption or the three Rs.
[6:02] And so in the first phase, you have that the new technology is displacing old technology. But crucially, the processes, the business models, they all stay the same. It’s just that the technology is replacing the old technology in specific tasks where those technologies are being used. It’s the second phase that I call the reimagine phase, where the processes themselves, the business models, are fundamentally shaken up because they’re reimagined around the new technology, around the capabilities of new technology, where you see a lot of product even grew as you see the economy and society being shaken and things coming out the other side a lot different. The third phase of adoption, is recombine, we’re not going to focus so much on this one today, Right, because that is further in the future. But recombine is where the technology combines with other technologies to create entirely new technologies. So the example I want to use here is electricity. If you go to the late 1800s, you had these factories. They were all powered by the steam engine, right? And you had one big steam engine there and you had a lot of different stations in the factory. And each one of those stations had to be connected by a line shaft to the single power source. Now, if you fast forward a couple of decades now, we started getting the electric engine. But fundamentally, you can see that the factory layout is the exact same. Okay. Now, that brought some brighter improvements because the electric engine is a little bit cheaper to run, it’s more reliable, etc., but relatively minor. Now, it took another 20 years until people realize, hey, wait a second, With electricity, I can fundamentally reimagine the way that I structure my factory. And so specifically, you could now have at every workstation, a little electric engine. And that meant that now you could organize the factory floor in a much more logical way where the output from one station became the inputs of the next station and then the recombine phase. Of course, we know that electricity, combined with advanced materials, created transistors, semiconductor chips, telecommunications, etc. etc. In the interest of time, I won’t go into too many other examples, but at least let me talk about computers for a second, at least fairly quickly. Right. If we back up to 1987, computers have been around for a couple of decades, and yet they really weren’t having a macro impact. They were nowhere in the productivity statistics. It was known as the computers productivity paradox. It was the machine of the year, but yet there was no sort of macro impact. And the reason, of course, was that people were using it a little bit, but they were still stuck in phase one. So in the first phase, computers replaced human computers. Right. So the term computer is actually used to refer to people that sat at desks and did arithmetic all day. Right. And then we had electronic computers, obviously that replaced them, but they also replaced a lot of people in the back office, bookkeepers, clerks, etc., etc. Okay. But the business models, the way that firms are organized, really didn’t change. It was only until the second phase re-imagine where now we start to see the decentralization of corporations. So with computers you can maintain better control. We saw companies venturing abroad because again, with better communications you could now communicate over larger distances. And we started seeing new models like customer relationship management, where you can start organizing a business around customer segments, for example. Right. And of course the computer combined with our technology, you got the Internet, smartphones, etc..
[9:25] And now the question is how does this apply to AI? Let’s start with very high level and then we’re going to do a bit of a deep dive into each of these different phases. Okay. But at a very high level. Your job as an executive, as an organizational leader, is to move your organization as quickly and responsibly but as quickly as possible through these phases. Right. And so phase one, you need to be thinking, okay, how can I drive efficiencies? And this is going to result in things like cost cutting, increasing volume, increasing quality. But then at the same time as you’re doing that, you have to be thinking, okay, I know what’s coming down the line, eventually people are going to dream up of how can I do things fundamentally different using this technology, right? So phase two, the re-imagine phase. And as a leader, you need to be thinking along those lines as well. Maybe you need to be leading in being the organization that actually does it before someone else does it and disrupts you.
[10:26] As you’re doing all of this, of course, you need to have your eye on the horizon. You need to have a scan function that is actually say, okay, well, how is this technology going combined with other things, in this case AI, to create entirely new things, entirely new technologies that are going to, again, fundamentally, radically change everything. So let us talk about replace, in order to think about what you can actually replace and do more efficiently. You have to understand what the technology can actually do. And so what do large language models do? Well, they’re very good at writing. They’re very good at ideation, they’re very good at background research, coding, at data analysis, and to some extent also math. And the crazy thing is that this list seems to be expanding every other week. Right. And they seem to be doing all of these things better and better. So you want to engage in phase one, you want to engage in the replace phase. Well, the first thing to do is. All right, well, let me look at my workflows, let me look at my processes. Let me break those down into tasks and then let me see which of those tasks are things that the AI can do. If it’s a task that the AI can do, let me do a return on investment analysis. And then starting at the top of my ROI list, I’m just going to start knocking them off one by one by one and automate more of my process. Okay. I want to point out that it sounds like the AI is just coming in and you’re getting rid of people. You’re dumping in AI. Obviously it’s not going to be that simple. What is going to happen in most cases is that the person is going to start working with the AI, right? And so this is where some people make the distinction between labour augmenting versus labour displacing. Personally, I think that’s a bit of a false dichotomy because what’s going to happen is if it is labour augmenting, the person is going to be able to be twice as efficient, get twice as much done in an hour and less demand for whatever they’re doing increases two fold. You’re not going to need as many workers. And so even if it is purely human enhancing, which by the way, I think it mostly is, there are going to be some job losses and there really is no other way around it. Now, a lot of what I’m saying today is I want to get you guys out of the replace phase and really thinking about phase two, because that’s where the real changes are going to happen. But for AI, I want to point out that there actually begins to be had just from this phase alone, which is actually relatively easy in the grand scheme of things. And so this is some early evidence of what these gains that can be had are. Right. So there’s a paper that shows that in writing tasks, you can increase productivity so the speed of writing with the use of ChatGPT by 59%. In the area of programming, you can increase coding speed by 56%. In customer service, you can increase the number of cases resolved by 14%. And even in the health care sector, chat bots seem to be offering better responses to customer queries than doctors do. And here’s the kicker, their responses have also been judged to be a lot more empathetic. Yes. One other thing I want to mention here is, to a large extent, these technologies are helping the least skilled. So if you are a phenomenal writer, these technologies are not going to help you much. If you’re a relatively weak writer, they’re going to help you a lot. They level out the playing field. Okay. All right. So this is the replace phase. And now we get to the re-imagine phase. I know what you’re all hoping. You’re all hoping I’m going to tell you exactly how you can re-imagine your own corporation, your own organization. I can’t do that because you are the experts on your organization. I certainly have some thoughts across different industries. What I’m going to do instead, I’m going to give you some examples. If we go back to the last sort of big technology, I would argue it’s the internet. You might argue it’s mobile technology, but let’s go with the Internet. We saw three really big companies come out of that age, Right. How did they come out of nowhere to become really big companies? Well, if you look at the case of Amazon, what they did is they engaged in this re-imagined phase before anyone else. And if you look at Meta, they did the same thing when it came to social networks and how people interact with each other. Okay. Phase three, in phase three, again, I’m not going to talk very much about it, but these technologies have combined to create entirely new things. So, for example, A.I. Robotics, 5G and Iot are combined to create collaborative robots. These are going to be entities that have the cognitive capabilities and the flexible sort of physical capabilities and are going to be connected to the Internet. You’re going to have access to everything. They’re really going to change everything. Right? But of course, that’s a good ways off. All right. So let me just say a couple of things about the impact of jobs. I think this framework I led you guys through helps us to also think about what the impact on jobs are going to be. And specifically in the replace phase, it’s actually fairly predictable. Because all we need to do is we need to ask which jobs have. So we look at all the tasks that are involved in each of these different jobs. And some jobs are going to have the majority of their tasks being things that these technologies can do. Those jobs are going to be in trouble. Other jobs, not so much because these technologies, you still need humans in the loop for now. When you go to the reimagine phase, at that point, it’s really hard to say. So, for example, I could never have predicted that the Internet was going to get rid of retail jobs. It wasn’t clear there was no link there until Amazon fundamentally redefined the industry. It wasn’t like oh these, you know, the Internet, the kinds of tasks that these people know that that wasn’t the analysis at all. So it’s really hard at that point to see what’s going to happen. But I would say one thing as well about winners and losers and about skills. I think society has a tremendous opportunity for organizations, for a country. But we can’t forget that there’s going to be winners and losers. Not everyone is going to be affected equally. And so I think it’s important for us to keep that in mind and make sure we have in place the kinds of programs that can help everyone. So who are going to be the winners and losers? Well, it basically depends whether your skills are complementary to AI or whether AI is going to replace those skills, whether it can do those skills. So what are some of the complementary skills? Things like and entrepreneurial skills. If you’re an entrepreneur and you have ideas, you are now super empowered. You can use these technologies to implement all kinds of things quickly. On the other hand, things like writing, background research, reading and programming, those are going to be competing with AI. So that’s all I want to say for that. In the interest of time, I’m just going to conclude and share with you what I think are some of the key takeaways. I think we really are at an inflection point here where we have a technology that’s going to transform our economy and our society. And for all of you that are leading organizations, it’s an opportunity to increase efficiencies, in other words, to, you know, focus on phase one. But you should really see that only as a tip of the iceberg. You really need to be thinking about phase two. In other words, there’s a once in a generation, maybe once in a lifetime even, opportunity to really transform your business. And if you’re really ambitious, actually your industry. And the question is, who’s going to do it? Right now, I started to talk by saying in Canada, we have a real problem here. We need to address it. We need to change the trajectory. But to do that we’re going to need our small and medium and large organizations to engage in these first two phases. And of course, that’s not going to be easy because they’re running all the time and don’t have the capacity. They might not, not know about AI. I think there’s a big role here for higher ed and for government to get involved, make sure that happens. My dream is there’s going to be the next Amazon, Google or Meta of the AI age is going to be coming out at some point and I want them to be Canadian, at least one of them to be Canadian. Okay, so one parting note. And I think this is especially relevant for higher education institutions. We really have not changed much in the way we do things in many, many years. If you’re not willing to be a disruptor, then you better be prepared to be disrupted. So I’ll stop there. Thanks so much. [18:31]
Speaker 3 [00:18:39] Felt like Joel kind of threw down the gauntlet there for the post-secondary folks in the room. That’s amazing. Joel, thank you. Thank you. I’m really pleased now to invite our esteemed panellists to stage. You already know Dave McKay. Dave BHER’s biggest champion, Anthony Viel, who goes by AV. Here, he’s the CEO of Deloitte Canada. Deloitte just put out two days ago a big report on the impact and opportunities of Canada’s AI ecosystem. And last but certainly not least, Mara Lederman. Mara is the chief operating officer and co-founder of Signal One, and prior to Signal one, Mara was a professor at the University of Toronto Rotman School of Business and was one of the leads of the Toronto site for the Creative Destruction Lab. I am so thrilled to have you up here. I could just maybe get everyone to give them a real round of applause to get them excited about talking. And I think my first question and I’m going to throw it open to all of you is just to like, what did you think about what Joel said? How are you feeling now?
Speaker 4 [00:19:40] So it was a great presentation. And, you know, I think Joel brought to life everything that economics has been thinking about, you know, not just in terms of A.I., but really drawing on the history of what have we seen as the patterns from technology innovations in the past. If you had asked me a year and a half ago, I would have said, I absolutely agree with everything Joel said. Now I would qualify that. I absolutely agree that the field of economics says everything that Joel told you that it said. And when, as Joel said, the returns to the replace phase are kind of small, they’re not nothing, but they’re not as big as the transform phase. It’s like, why am I going to do all that work for something that might be small? So then you’re like, Well, I can give you this big idea. Transforming. I’m definitely not doing that work. And so I think that’s probably, you know, the what I can offer is there are so much under the hood there that makes this so, so very hard, even when all of the intentions and the incentives are in the right place.
Speaker 3 [20:37] AV that’s a good segway to you. You can speak to it.
Speaker 5 [00:20:38] I was inspired and enthusiastic about what Joel was talking about and why I am. I believe that the reimagine phase is going to create jobs. We digitized all the analogue and we did that for a good 15 years for returns, good returns, good efficiencies for sure. We haven’t really grasped that re-imagine phase yet with digital, let alone AI, but digital and the opportunities it presents itself. So it’s going to take a long time. I think the message that you had in your presentation don’t be lulled into inaction, and that’s our message at Deloitte.
Speaker 3 [00:21:50] Deloitte put out a report just a couple of days ago. What were the main themes, the key takeaways for you that came out of that assessment of Canada’s AI ecosystems?
Speaker 5 [00:21:58] I think that the headline statement is 86% of Canadian organizations are worried about the risks of privacy, confidentiality, biases, poor quality results. They’re all legit and they’re all in this first phase. I’m not talking about iRobot taking over the world and we become enslavement to technology. I think that’s something we can talk about in the decades to come. But immediately, you know, the privacy part is legitimate concern on that. The poor quality results, the hallucinations, but also the model deterioration. The ChatGPT4 in some tasks is worse than ChatGPT 1. And nobody can explain why. So there’s a legitimate, legitimate concerns that I think back up that 86% of respondents are worried about the risks.
Speaker 3 [00:22:24] We have three executives from companies up here. My question is, you know, we’ve got a room full of companies and post-secondaries. When you’re thinking about some of these barriers, if it’s still adoption around digital tech or adoption or at least understanding of the potential of AI, generative AI, in particular. When and how do you think about post secondaries and how you would want to work with them now? How have you worked with them? Where do you see that relationship going?
Speaker 4 [00:22:50] So I can start I mean, I think there are such an incredible roles, our partnership for partnerships between post-secondary and between enterprise. I think I would have said in the past that post-secondary does the research somewhere in the middle we have programs like CDL to help with the commercialization and then we sell it to large enterprises. That’s too small a view. There is this huge part I’ve learnt in the middle that goes from the research to the development. I think where that development part which is so, so much part of the commercialization has to be done in partnership with potential customers and that’s something I didn’t even appreciate what I saw all these startups from CDL and say, okay, the next eight weeks get one kind of a customer. But what we realize is like, you can’t build a product for a technology product for your customer just as the technology company. You need to be almost embedded and working closely with your customer to understand all of your blind spots to what practically needs, you know, to work to make it work. So I think that’s one form of partnership that so far we need to bring more enterprises. We do this at our company. With our first two hospitals we’re design partners and that meant something very specific. We knew right from the outset, you’re getting something that’s unproven. Right? Now, you’re getting some great deals in terms of that. But here’s all the stuff you’re going to help us with, and they are effectively co-designing the technology with us. So I think that’s kind of on the development side, so much opportunity. The other thing I learned is on these areas, like the risks you talked about, we need the research on the cutting edge, thinking aright around algorithmic bias, how do we regulate these things? But even that needs to be paired with doing it in practice, right? So much of what we do around model validation, retraining, monitoring borrowed from what my co-founder did when he built a AI inside of one of the other leading banks. He never would have figured that out. You know, in graduate school, it was the need to put it into practice in a in a regulated industry, in an organization with very strong risk management practices, that they’re like, okay, how do we figure out to take what the computer scientists have taught us and turn it actually into technology that can do this? So I think that’s the second place where higher education and enterprise really need to work hand in hand, specifically around A.I.
Speaker 3 [25:09] Dave I throw that same question to you and the relationship and partnership potential that exists here.
Speaker 6 [00:25:16] One of those use cases we’ve already started to re-imagine, and this is where we need university help, and that is the coding one — that you pointed out. So we’ve already challenged ourselves to solve a major problem in our company, and that is we’ve lost control of our tech stack to third party software providers. So, our big idea is if I can code software 75 to 80% cheaper than I did before, then I’m going to get back in the game that I was doing 25 years ago of coding my own software. That’s the reimagine. And I want it and I’ll fund it. So you can see the disruption. And every other CEO of every other major company wants the same thing. But controlling the code is going to be really critical. So what do we do? We’ll bring more co-op students in and get us to 75% ChatGPT code. Then I need a systems design person to architect the system and then we’ll code it ourselves really efficiently — and I don’t have to pay that economic rent. Billions and billions of dollars a year. So that re-imagine, I think it is that two-to-three-year horizon as well. Maybe five, maybe ten. But we’ll start on it now. Anyway, that’s an example of how exciting this technology is and kind of rethinking the world and why we’re going to need students who have broken that bias to rethink the world. [90.6s]
Speaker 3 [00:26:46] So you’ve heard it here first, folks. Dave’s getting back into coding, so that’s sort of my takeaway.
Speaker 6 [00:26:55] [00:27:35]Always a coder. Started a coder, will finish as a coder — full circle. [4.6s]
Speaker 3 [00:26:59] AV, I saw you nodding and taking some notes. I’m going to ask you to build on that and then I’m giving you guys a heads up. I’m coming out to the audience. This is where we pivot into the panel and audience conversation. [00:27:50]
Speaker 5 [00:27:10] I think Dave’s point, augmenting human and technology is a good strategy and you should continue to do that develop through your programs. The folks that are not scared of technology embrace technology.
[27:25] And if I could pick up just my point earlier as well as is, I get really nervous when people in Deloitte start innovating too far away from the end user, the client, the patient, what have you. I think we shouldn’t forget that. And purple people are the ones that can get to the to the crux of that. But I agree with Dave too, that white collar productivity has been terrible for 40, 50 years. Terrible. And this is an opportunity and where we can get some productivity and white collar and I think it’s continued around this area, leveraging and augmenting technology that’s going to be able to do that.
Audience [28:05] In the field of of AI, you know, because we’re talking a lot about how we marry the education to ensure that we’re ready to actually tackle that. I know we’re talking a lot about college and university, but I actually challenge that. I think we need to start we need to start in the schools with Gen AI right now, like when I think about when I was developing code 30 years ago, it was horrendous. It was like, you know. See And was not the most easy thing to do right now. Now you can start to teach kids from school to actually prompt code so they can create code. If we wait for college and university, we’re coming too late. The other thing I find that we have to think about is, is AI, where we’re going to focus. So when I look at other countries, you know, just quick examples. If I look at India, they decided long time ago they were going to focus on IT and there was government grants, there was like the whole thing channel on how they will become the best country to actually have IT and they did it. So is AI our focus? And if that is our focus, what are we going to do to ensure that, as India did, what it or many other countries very decisively shows what they’re going to be good at? We’re going to get to it because we’re going to have to start in every different angle to get to. So I’m not even convinced yet that as a country, we’re very clear on that yet. We want to be good at so many things, but you cannot be good at everything.
Speaker 5 [00:29:32] One of the outcomes of our research, if I may, we found that one in ten of the leading gen AI researchers reside in Canada today, and we’ve grown that talent around those luminaries, if you will, faster than any other G-7. Now, whether we deploy that, whether we keep them in-country, whether we through incentives and otherwise, I think is over to you said, you know, government’s got a role to play here as well to do that. How do we make Canada an attractive proposition for those talents?
Audience [00:30:05] Indeed, it was used to add something quick, like one of the things that is a little bit painful is a lot of the fathers of AI are Canadian. How many big companies do we have in Canada right now at a global stage? Zero, which is really painful.
Speaker 6 [00:30:25] A question for the educators. I think it’s really important, are you flipping your educational methodology on its head and starting with the output from the machine, then asking your students to validate it and the research and the learning is how do you prove true or false, and what’s the quality of that answer? I mean, is that something that you’re talking about and thinking about?
Audience [00:30:52] Yes, absolutely. I just came back from a week in Sydney at the Times Higher Education World Academic Summit, where in fact, much of the agenda was devoted to this question of how we prepare our students for a world, a working world in which gen AI is going to be a routine tool that they’ll be using. The issue of prompt engineering came up, and I think it was agreed that we could probably come up with a better label, maybe prompt design or prompt creation, because, you know, it speaks exactly with the skill set that’s actually going to be required in order to do this well. So I wanted to come back to a wonderful case study. You know, your experience and the difficulty that you’re encountering and you know, you emphasize the importance of connecting technology users and technology producers together in a kind of co-creation process, which we’re not very used to doing in this country. You know, the undeniable kind of sorry track record that we have in this country of business enterprises being very slow to adopt technologies that would enhance their productivity, I would say also slow to embrace a training agenda, which is a complementary input that one requires in order to make use of new technologies so effectively. So, chronically, we have underinvested in training and we’ve also seen businesses undervaluing and the importance of investments in the fixed capital that is at the cutting edge. And so, you know, the question it raises is how do we change the demand side of this, this process? How do we get more enterprises to do what RBC is doing and help them to understand not just the opportunities but the threats? Because if they don’t recognize the importance of making these kinds of investments, they’re not going to survive very long. So I welcome comments from all of you on that particular issue and just say that this session today has done a fantastic job of zooming in on, I think the number one challenge that the Canadian economy is going to be facing in the next little while.
Speaker 4 [00:33:07] So I think the first thing is nothing, nothing like a crisis gets people to do stuff. And I would guess Vivek and others might know this better. There was probably incredible collaboration between academia and health care systems during COVID, and ideas probably went from research to implementation sort of faster than has ever happened before, right? So it is certainly possible when it is necessary. So then that asks the question, well, why isn’t it happening the rest of the time? And I have a few ideas on it. I think on the demand side, I think personally I think we have a lot of industries that aren’t sufficiently competitive and we’re not that big a market. I mean, if we had a ton of, you know, have tons of regional banks, right? We don’t have a ton of banks. We don’t have a ton of airlines that we could count them on less than one hand. And so I think obviously competition is a threat to keep getting better. And there are some industries I think don’t have enough competition. We don’t have probably as much competition for talent in Canada as we should. Our MBA students overwhelmingly wanted to stay in Canada. Now that is great for the Canadian employers and a huge fraction of them went to the big banks. And I love that you hire our students, but I wish you hired them away from them wanting to go to the US. And then it’s hard for all the reasons people here have said it’s hard absorptive capacity training. People are busy, right? They don’t have a lot of time on middle of doing their jobs to do things. And now the last point I’ve spoken too much. Just coming back to your point about transformation, I can’t think of an example where the true transformation around a new technology, now I could be wrong, came from an incumbent. So what are the ones where we think of new technologies transform business. Amazon transformed retail; start-up. Uber transformed transportation; start-up. Netflix transformed entertainment. It wasn’t Blockbuster, all of a sudden say, we’re going to close every store, right? And so maybe, Joel’s probably thought about whether there is or there isn’t. But part of why this is hard, you know, I want to transform an emergency department. That’s not going to happen for 20 years. Amazon’s going to be more likely to do that than, you know, my technology company with some incumbent. Could you imagine if, like you said, one day we’re closing every one of our branches, That could be a transfer.
Speaker 6 [00:35:26] [00:41:07] We’re disrupting ourselves.[0.3s]
Speaker 4 [00:35:28] You’re disrupting yourselves. But on the scale, on the examples that Joel brought.
Speaker 6 [00:] [00:35:32]Disruption is slower. [1.0s]
Speaker 4 [00:35:35] The scale, the impact on the humans that you kind of care about as a leader, it’s very hard to do that. And I think that’s why it’s so hard to get to that transforming.
Speaker 3 [00:35:44] This has been fantastic. A huge, huge thank you to the panel. Can I just get everyone to give our panel a round of applause.
Speaker 1 [00:35:56] That was an edited recording of the annual meeting of the Business and Higher Education Roundtable held in Toronto on October 5th. And this is Disruptors, an RBC podcast. I’m John Stackhouse. Talk to you soon.
Speaker 3 [00:36:15] Disruptors and RBC Podcast is created by the RBC Thought Leadership Group and does not constitute a recommendation for any organization, product or service. For more Disruptors content, visit RBC dot com site Disruptors and leave us a five star rating. If you like our show.
Speaker 1 [00:00:01] Hi, it’s John here. When you hear the word market, what do you think? We know a farmer’s market is where you can buy farm fresh food. And a stock market is where you can buy stocks. And a flea market is where you can buy. Oh, never mind. You get the point. Markets are where people gather to buy and sell things of value. And those include carbon markets. Carbon markets are, in fact, all the rage in climate circles right now. And yet they’re not very well understood. So let’s start with a basic question. What on earth is a carbon market? They’re not a place to buy or sell carbon. At least not literally. But they are where investors and companies and each of us indirectly can buy a share of emissions reducing activities like tree planting or carbon capture or renewable energy production. Think of it as a place where polluters meet servers to determine the market value of climate action. The value of global carbon markets doubled in 2022 to more than $1 trillion. And when it comes to financing the climate transition, we’re going to need a lot more of these markets to take the baton from governments and move us from a tax and spend and regulate approach to more of a free market approach that truly puts an economic value on climate action. These markets have already helped finance wind farms and protected grazing lands all over the world, but they’ve also led to controversies over the quality of carbon offsets. Are all these projects really removing carbon from the atmosphere or just making us all feel good? And can the markets that are trying to price them with all that power and ingenuity actually take on the biggest challenge we’ve ever faced and mobilize the trillions of dollars that we’re going to need for all the technologies and human initiative to get us to net zero?
Speaker 1 [00:01:54] This is Disruptors, an RBC podcast. I’m John Stackhouse. On today’s episode, we’re delving into the intricate web of carbon markets to explore their legitimacy, the support they offer to some of Canada’s leading innovators, and how they can mobilize those trillions that climate action is going to need, as well as their role in helping communities preserve and enhance our land, forests and water. We’ll be joined by Michael Berends, the CEO of Clear Blue Markets, to talk about the hype and reality of carbon markets. We’ll also hear from Phil DeLuna, the chief carbon officer of Deep Sky. That’s the brainchild of Fred Lalonde, the founder of Hopper. But first, let’s hear from Danni Warren, an indigenous leader who’s working with coastal First Nations in northern British Columbia, where communities are accessing carbon markets to help protect the Great Bear Rainforest. The GBR, as it’s known, is not only one of the most stunning places on the planet, its preservation is essential to Canada’s net zero ambitions. Here’s a clip from our conversation.
Speaker 2 [00:03:01] The Great Bear Rainforest is located on the north and central coast of British Columbia. It’s the second largest temperate rainforest in the world. We are lucky enough to be the only indigenous owned carbon project in Canada. Carbon markets for us have opened up a massive door. It’s allowed us to protect the entirety of the project area and allowed us to bring in revenues that are helping people on the ground in community. In terms of scale, our alliance of nations that I work with is representation of eight different nations. No alliance of First Nations in Canada has been as big as we are and has sat at the table with their government and having real open ended conversations. We’ve created policies together. We’ve created acts together. We co-manage together. In terms of reconciliation, it’s massive. No other nation has been able to sign such a major sharing agreement with their government that allows them to own the assets 100% and then be able to sell them in a marketplace under their own right and their own well. And for our people, for our communities. They have that opportunity. They have the opportunity to actually be heard and to have a say, and input into how their community and their territories is really being managed. It means that we have a chair right there at the table.
Speaker 1 [00:04:16] The Great Bear Forest Carbon Project is the first offset project in North America to be implemented on traditional territory with an unextinguished Aboriginal rights. Danni’s work is what carbon markets should be all about raising capital from investors and companies, determining a market value and getting that capital to people like her and communities on the front lines of climate action. Our next guest, Michael Berends, is CEO and co-founder of Clear Blue Markets. It’s an award winning carbon markets company that works on carbon product deals, structuring strategies and transactions for offsets in more than 50 countries across all sorts of sectors, including nonprofits and governments. Michael, welcome to Disruptors.
Speaker 3 [00:05:02] Hi, John. Thank you very much. Really excited to talk about carbon pricing today.
Speaker 1 [00:05:05] Let’s start with some basics for those who need a carbon markets 101. There are compliance markets and voluntary markets. Can you give us a quick explanation of the difference?
Speaker 3 [00:05:15] Yeah, I think today a lot of what we hear being discussed is the voluntary market where you have corporate citizens looking to reduce emissions towards net zero. And that’s a lot of the discussion about offsets. However, I think what’s really driving carbon pricing over the years is the compliance markets, which are regulated by the governments and they impose a carbon price on emitters and emitters need to work within those regulations to reduce their emissions and pay a carbon price when they have to pay a carbon price. But a key part of that is that it’s a market and it’s a tradable market, and we’ve had those around for decades. The main one being the ETS, the EU, and we have those down in Canada of course, the carbon price across Canada, which we’ve seen has been very successful in driving emitters towards net-zero targets and reducing their emissions, which we need drastically today.
Speaker 1 [00:05:56] Yeah, as you say, this is nothing new in large parts of Canada. Quebec and British Columbia have both been pioneers in this. Alberta has carbon pricing, industrial carbon pricing and has for a number of years. So emitters, as you say, have to pay a price for what they pollute, but then they can find offsets for that. Can you explain a bit of how that works? If I’m an emitter and polluting, how do I go about getting an offset?
Speaker 3 [00:06:19] Yeah, it’s a challenge for emitters to make the reductions. We know working with emitters, it takes a while for them to make significant impacts into their installations. So offsets are activities that occur outside of a carbon pricing regime. So they their activities don’t have a carbon price such as forestry projects or bio gas projects and landfill projects that achieves the result of emission reductions and allows emitters to also comply with the regulations for a period of time. So the concept of using offsets, even for a voluntary market, is saying, I can’t make those changes today, I will make those changes. In the meantime, I’m going to use this tool called offsets where I’m going to support reductions which otherwise wouldn’t have occurred if I didn’t support that. Again, this not the long term solution. It’s a tool to get towards net zero as we look to make those reductions ourselves.
Speaker 1 [00:07:01] Why would I buy an offset in the voluntary market rather than the compliance market, which sounds more sophisticated?
Speaker 3 [00:07:07] In the compliance market, there’s less options available for those offsets. And the fact that they allow for only certain types of from certain locations because that program’s being able to manage it. These programs want to be have full control over the offsets and what they allow. Now, that’s one issue. I think. The other one is you’ll probably find the price is higher because the price is linked to the compliance price. It doesn’t mean it’s a better or worse. The fact is we take the view that all offset projects that we work with are coming from credible regulations and credible sources. That is, one tonne of CO2 is one tonne of CO2. So if you’re a voluntary offset buyer, there’s no reason to purchase from a compliance regime offset. There’s other offsets out there and probably other assets that are more likely linked to what you’re looking for. For example, maybe if you’re an ad company or if you’re in an oil business, you’re looking for oil sector offsets or other activities that you share, but also locations. Many of our clients have activities across the world, and they’re looking to support offset prices in those locations. So there’s different reasons why you may buy from the voluntary market.
Speaker 1 [00:08:11] There course been a number of controversies, a bit of noise out there around offsets, especially over the last year as prices have gone way up. How much of that is hype and how much is reality?
Speaker 3 [00:08:22] I’ll say it’s mostly hype, unfortunately. Lots of interesting stories, of course, that catch people’s attention. The voluntary market is not perfect, but I don’t think anything is perfect and will always be able to find some outliers there. But there’s no reason to blow up the system. I am extremely confident that overall even the voluntary market is doing something very good.
Speaker 1 [00:08:39] So I guess a key behind all of this is what’s called measurement reporting and verification. MRV, which gives people confidence, gives them proof that what paying for actually is happening and relies on third party validation, which has always been the strength of transparent, sustainable markets over the centuries. How is that sort of approach growing when it comes to carbon markets?
Speaker 3 [00:09:01] This approach and the sophistication, the technologies to do those measurements continues to increase. I can’t think of anything else that I could purchase today that I wouldn’t have so much information about that project. I can find out the location, I can find out the technology, I can find out the timing. I can find out who the owner is. The extensive amount of information available if someone wants to look into the offset projects, which I would never find for anything else, I wouldn’t find that when I buy my phone, I wouldn’t find it when I buy my car. Even the food that I buy, I wouldn’t know all the details about that. So there is this sort of contradiction about concerns about transparency, when in fact there’s more information about an offset project than you could imagine out there.
Speaker 1 [00:09:35] There’s been a surge in prices as well as demand really coming out of the pandemic. What’s driving that in your mind?
Speaker 3 [00:09:42] I think the pandemic brought to mind the fact that science is important and climate change is about science and accepting it. And unfortunately for many years, climate change became a political thing and not a scientific thing. And I think that changed when COVID was around and understanding. We need to understand the science behind this. And we realized that the science is telling us we’ve got a problem and this is real, this is important, and let’s do good things with the opportunities we have in front of us. And we really saw the markets, to your point, John, take off during the COVID pandemic.
Speaker 1 [00:10:10] And a lot of companies, of course, are getting more serious about net zero and they’re putting significant amounts of capital into this. You just think of the Apples and Microsofts of the world or Shopify, if you’re in Canada, I think it said it’s going to put $1 billion towards these sorts of offsets. Is there as much demand from communities and that kind of supply side of projects, if I can call it that, as we’re seeing on the demand side from investors and corporates.
Speaker 3 [00:10:37] Indeed, the demand for offsets was driven mainly by the ETS in the EU market. 1520 years ago they changed their rules and a lot of things changed the financial crisis, so it slowed down. Then of course the development of projects slowed down and we saw that direct lack of development as there was no price signal. But as we saw that demand come back, those companies that you mentioned and other, looking for sources that you saw the development side pick up as well. So there is the supply side. But what’s also very important to consider is as demand goes up and need for this and the price of carbon goes up, new technology will be developed and deployed to supply that demand. And that’s exactly what these markets are for. They’re there to create new technologies, new opportunities to capture emissions, for example, and that’s stimulated because of a carbon price. If we don’t have a carbon price, we won’t have those. And taking that back again to the compliance market, if there is no price signal for carbon on emissions, you won’t have these technologies being deployed in these significant industries which they cannot just stop without new technologies and this is what the price is doing.
Speaker 1 [00:11:39] One of the interesting aspects of carbon markets, at least in my mind, is the uncertainty around innovation. So we hear from all sorts of innovators who are developing new technologies. Carbon capture, as you just mentioned, and we’ll hear from Deep Sky shortly about what they’re looking at. Much of it is proven, but some of it is not proven and not proven at scale. How do markets manage that kind of uncertainty?
Speaker 3 [00:12:01] That’s definitely been a challenge in the carbon markets, is the certainty and it’s the regulatory certainty, the stroke of pen risk. Unfortunately, here in Canada, historically, there has been some certainly in regulation. And that has delayed investment and that is the struggle of the long-term certainty in knowing will your emission reductions be valued and can I make this investment say that I’ll get a return on five, ten, twenty years from now? That is changing. We’re seeing a lot of improvement. There’s been a Supreme Court case has show that the federal government can ensure that there’s a carbon price. That’s been great for the signals. We’ve seen a lot of our clients in large emitters make decisions after that result. And the voluntary market is a way of getting around that. That risk of uncertainty when we create our own certainty, as corporates saying we believe in this. We are committed to making investments because we know this technology is important. I’m not going to even worry too much about the compliance side. I will pay for that. But I’m committed and make making my own path. And I believe in the voluntary market and we should get rewarded for that. But we’ll invest in that. And again, also those companies you mentioned earlier on, they’re doing this as well. The Shopifys, the Amazons of Microsofts.
Speaker 1 [00:13:00] Many of those operators are very sophisticated that we heard from Danni Warren earlier, talking about what they’re doing in the Great Bear Rainforest. And it’s fascinating to think of communities in remote parts of Canada and elsewhere in the world doing remarkable things and being rewarded for that through carbon markets. What do communities like that need to think about when they think about global carbon markets and how they can benefit from them?
Speaker 3 [00:13:25] I’m glad you raised this. I’ve been fortunate enough to travel the world and have amazing experiences, but also to be there and talk about carbon pricing. And if there weren’t these markets, we would not be talking about carbon pricing and more importantly, we would not be looking at projects that reduce carbon and those communities throughout the world that are not sophisticated because that’s not their core business, but they’re looking for these opportunities. They need the support to understand that what is the market? They need strong partners to say this is how you can develop and get the most value out of your project to ensure that project is created. But again, that comes all back to the fact that there is a carbon price, a carbon signal, and there’s this incentive for things such as offsets to fight this climate crisis.
Speaker 1 [00:14:07] Michael, you’ve got a great global perch and through Clear Blue you see all sorts of companies and sectors. I wonder when you think about the year ahead or the years ahead, what you think needs to change most? What kind of innovations or developments are going to be most needed in carbon markets for them to continue to grow and succeed?
Speaker 3 [00:14:27] Yeah. As much as we and the co-founders have been doing this for 15 years, I feel like we’re just beginning and what needs to be done is one, I think the first thing is still get that regulatory certainty so these technologies can develop. I’d say the technologies are there today to make significant impacts. They just need to be deployed and needs to be trust in what we’re doing. To do that, we look at developing countries that didn’t cause the problem that the West caused this climate change problem by their economic growth. And we must allow other countries that are still developing to have that same economic growth. And one way to have them do that, but also not cause the same problem, is to help them avoid emissions, to say, look, maybe don’t build a coal plant, build the wind farm and we’ll give you an incentive so technologies will come. But we do have the technologies today that makes it difficult impacts.
Speaker 1 [00:15:09] That’s a great note to wrap up on, Michael. Incentives often drive innovation. Thank you for being on Disruptors.
Speaker 3 [00:15:15] Thank you very much. It’s a pleasure.
Speaker 1 [00:15:19] That was Michael Berends, the CEO and co-founder of Clear Blue Markets. Our next guest is Phil De Luna, chief carbon scientist and head of engineering at Deep Sky. It’s a Canadian clean tech company aiming to remove gigatons of CO2 from the atmosphere while building infrastructure to scale carbon dioxide removal systems in a tangible way. Phil, welcome to Disruptors.
Speaker 4 [00:15:47] Thank you so much for having me.
Speaker 1 [00:15:48] You’ve had a remarkable career and it’s really just getting going. You’ve worked at Toyota and IBM. I think you were Canada’s youngest research director at the National Research Council. Now, you’re chief carbon scientist at Deep Sky. That’s a Montreal startup that just raised $55 million from VC investors. White Cap and Bright Sparks, the venture arm of the Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System, or Omers, as people may know it better. But Phil, what I love most about your bio is you call yourself a research capitalist. What is that?
Speaker 4 [00:16:20] Yeah, it’s a little term that I came up from myself. You hear about venture capitalists all the time and what do they do? They identify and find companies to invest in, to create value, to drive disruption. I think of my career as looking at how do we use science and research and innovation to drive disruption. And so when I was at the NRC, I was essentially overseeing a portfolio of programs to disperse public funding to help innovation. When I was at McKinsey, I led carbon tech for the sustainability practice in Toronto. And I was helping investors, incumbents and innovators deploy capital to turn innovation into action. And now I’m at Deep Sky, where I get to essentially find the best technologies in the world to capture CO2 from the air in the ocean. And then I get to bring them to Canada and scale them. So it’s about as good of a term as I could find to describe my career.
Speaker 1 [00:17:14] It’s a beautiful description, and I’m just thinking venture capitalists meet research capitalists. That’s a great intersection. Carbon capture, maybe the hottest tech out there as it allows us to take carbon either out of the air or to capture it at source. Phil, wonder if you can tell us a bit about Deep Sky’s research vision and what you’re hoping to achieve in this great kind of space race of carbon capture that we’re seeing all over the world.
Speaker 4 [00:17:41] Yeah, for sure. I always like to use the analogy and to describe the nuance between point source capture, which is capturing it out of flue stack at a steel mill versus what we’re doing, which is carbon removals. And the difference is imagine that the atmosphere is a bathtub and CO2 is water and it’s overflowing. You have about two that overflow and you can do two things. You either turn off the top or you pull the plug. Point source emissions is turning off the tap, pulling the plug. That’s what we do. That’s carbon removal. And the reason why we need to do this is that there is a very sizable amount of our economy that is impossible or difficult to electrify. Transportation, cement production, steel production. And then on top of that, there is a lag with warming and emissions. I often liken climate change and COVID and the pandemic to be very similar. Both have lagging indicators. In the pandemic, a death was a lagging indicator of infection, a lag time of two weeks. In climate change, temperature rise is a lagging indicator of emissions. But the difference is it’s decades. Just because we stop emitting completely. The world still has this baked in warming, 10 to 50 years worth more warming. Now, that’s why we have to remove CO2 from the air. So I wanted to start with that before I dove into what Deep Sky is doing. We are a technology agnostic, project developer and owner operator of the infrastructure to remove CO2 from our air and from our ocean. We don’t develop the capture tech ourselves. We develop the projects and the plants. We looked around and we said there are no technology agnostic project developers in the market. We are going to service that need. And that’s exactly what we’re doing.
Speaker 1 [00:19:24] This sounds in many ways like a basic matching service, which we see all the time in our lives. Whether it’s for travel or finding hotels, is just matching supply and demand as efficiently as possible. And then no surprise that Deep Sky grew out of Hopper, which is Fred Lalonde, a great Montreal innovator and disruptor who we’ve had on the show in the past. Hopper is the back end of a lot of what we all participate in, which is buying airline tickets. Connect those dots for us. How did the group go from Hopper to Deep Sky?
Speaker 4 [00:19:56] Yeah, it’s a great story. So Fred Lalonde and Joost Ouwerkerk, who are the co-founders of Hopper, a few years ago started offsetting the emissions of their customers by planting trees. They planted, I think, over 30 million trees over three years. And they got criticized by activists saying, oh, this is greenwashing, this isn’t enough. And this was around the pandemic. So they had some a little bit of extra time to dive deeper into climate. And the deeper that they dove, the more scared they got. And they realized two things. Number one is that all of the models that we use to predict how warming will happen, are wrong. They don’t take into account tipping points. These are these one way doors that once you cross them, it’s very difficult to come back. An example being once the Antarctic ice sheet melts, it’s not going to come back tomorrow. If we stop emissions, it takes millions of years for that ice sheet to grow. That’s a one way door. That’s a tipping point. So they realized, one, that climate models are wrong. Two, planting trees is not enough. We actually have to remove carbon dioxide from our atmosphere, mechanically. Trees take 10, 30, 40 years to reach maturity before they really start pulling CO2 out of the air. And so, there are many reasons why we should plant trees and we should continue planting trees for environmental reasons, for habitat restoration, reasons for ecosystems and biodiversity. But emissions reduction probably isn’t the best way to do it.
Speaker 1 [00:21:21] Phil, as you said earlier, there is a lot of debate about the energy required to take carbon out of the atmosphere. You’re a scientist. Help us laypeople understand the math of using all that energy. And does that really net out in a positive way that’s worth all the investment that’s going to be required?
Speaker 4 [00:21:40] So the first point is that the only way you can do any of this is if we have renewable electricity, low carbon or low carbon electricity. So it’s solar, that’s wind, that’s nuclear. The second piece is that every new technology has iterations. They always start way off, way less efficient than they become. So a lot of folks who say, oh, carbon removals or direct air capture technology is super energy intensive and it will never scale. They’re assuming that it’s going to scale at just this energy intensity. The first generation of carbon removal technologies rely on heat really, really high heat. So what we’re doing at Deep Sky is we’re looking for technologies that don’t need heat or if they do need heat, they only needs low grade or heat that can be produced with electricity. So the number one thing that we’re looking for in technologies that we bring to Canada is can it be electrified? The second thing is, is there a pathway to low energy intensity? To give you a sense. The current technologies that rely on heat are about 4000 kilowatt hours per ton of CO2. So it’s a measure of energy per ton of CO2 captured. We want to find technologies that are a quarter of that 1000 kilowatt hours per ton of CO2. Once you find these technologies and once you scale them, once you start getting down that cost curve by deployment, then not only does it become more economically advantageous, but it also increases energy efficiency.
Speaker 1 [00:23:01] Phil, you’re a materials guy, and I’d like to pick your brain a bit about all the assets that we have in the world to capture and store carbon. But the company is called Deep Sky. So let’s start there. Why is Sky in the name?
Speaker 4 [00:23:15] Really there are a couple of thoughts storing CO2 deep underground, taking the carbon and storing it back to where we found it. So that’s the deep part. And then the sky is removing it from the sky, yes. But also, thinking about the vastness of our atmosphere of what we want to do to protect it. It just felt like a good marriage.
Speaker 1 [00:23:36] That is a good marriage. Tell us about the power of both rocks and sea, because Canada’s got access to a lot of rocks and a lot of sea. So how do we harness those to get carbon out of the sky and deep into the earth where maybe it belongs?
Speaker 4 [00:23:51] So to answer this question, I have to take a step back and talk about our natural carbon cycle. If there were no humans in the world, and if there was no industrial activity, there would still be CO2 that goes from the ground into the air, into the water, into the ground, into the air, into the water. That’s our natural carbon cycle. Rocks play a role. Ocean plays a role. Rocks, for example, deep underground, there are these reactive minerals that when they get exposed, react with the air. I’ll give you an example. Limestone, everything that we use for cement and building everything, the calcium in the ground, which is a metal, when it hits the air, it reacts with CO2 and it forms calcium carbonate limestone. That natural capturing of CO2 by a rock, we can engineer that. We can create reactors that do that faster by playing around with the size of the rock so there’s more surface area so they can touch more CO2, so we can grab it. On the ocean, a lot of people don’t realize, but the ocean is actually the world’s largest carbon sink. And when we put CO2 into the air, when we admit it because of fossil fuels, we also create acid acidification in the ocean. We’re taking CO2. We’re putting into the air that CO2 is going to the water and making it into carbonic acid, making it into Coca-Cola. And so in order for us to reverse that, we also have to remove CO2 out of the ocean.
Speaker 1 [00:25:14] Phil, someone’s got to pay for this at the end of the day. And maybe this is where research capitalist meets the venture capitalists. What’s the economic model that’s going to make this sustainable?
Speaker 4 [00:25:24] It’s actually very simple. We remove carbon dioxide from the air, the ocean. We generate a carbon credit and then we sell the carbon credit to customers. Because in the short term, it’s the voluntary carbon market, meaning it’s large corporations who have set net zero by 2050 goals. And I’ve realized that it’s going to be very difficult for them to meet them or they have scope three and diffuse emissions that they can’t address alone because they don’t have control over it. Or they’re visionaries like Microsoft who have said that they’re actually going to become a net negative and remove every historical ton of emission that they have emitted as a company since they were founded.
Speaker 1 [00:26:06] One of the concerns that we’re talking about on this episode with respect to carbon markets is how can people be sure of what’s happening? How can we verify that a company or an operator or an innovator is putting carbon back into the earth and that it’s staying there? As a scientist, how are you thinking about that dilemma and what kind of error rate, if I can put it that way, should we be comfortable with? Because if we wait for perfection, we may run out of time.
Speaker 4 [00:26:33] Exactly. No, that’s exactly right. And actually, that’s one of the theses of Deep Sky. We are moving fast and we are purchasing pilots from companies that are barely a year old knowing full well that many of them are going to fail. But that’s okay because we’re going to learn. To us, that’s the cost of discovery. So your question about monitoring comes down to this term monitoring reporting and verification, MRV. And there are different pieces of this, right? We know how to monitor gases and look at fluid flow. Reporting and verification is a little bit more difficult. How do you ensure that the reporting that you do is transparent? How do you track a molecule from start to finish? How do you ensure that you’re audited in a way that is fair, third party and reliable. At the end of the day, in order for this entire industry to succeed, we need carbon removal credits to be extremely liquid. We need them to be tradable. We need them to be transparent and trusted. So from a scientific perspective, it’s actually quite easy to measure this stuff. It’s all of the business and economics and regulatory infrastructure that needs to fall into place.
Speaker 1 [00:27:38] Phil, before I let you go. I want to come back to that word discovery. It’s a very powerful and beautiful word. What do you hope to discover in the next few years in this space?
Speaker 4 [00:27:47] Frankly, I hope to discover all of the failures along the way, because hitting those failures quickly is actually much better than half measures and cautioned approaches, when we have this urgency of climate change, breathing down our back. So to me, a success is we get as many failures as quickly as possible, and maybe we’re going to burn a lot of investment doing that. But when we hit that success, it’s going to make up for everything.
Speaker 1 [00:28:16] What a great message, Phil. Makes me think that disruptors discover. And that’s a good call to action for everyone. Thanks for your discoveries and thank you for being on Disruptors.
Speaker 4 [00:28:25] Thank you.
Speaker 1 [00:28:27] That was Phil DeLuna, chief carbon scientist and head of engineering at Deep Sky. Today we heard from three very different people about the realities and ambitions of carbon markets and how important they are as a tool to fight climate change. Phil told us about the need to accommodate technology risk. When we think about climate action, there’s a lot of technologies out there that are working and we need to finance them at a scale that they’ve never been applied at before. That’s a different kind of risk for many investors. And carbon markets are going to have to figure out how to price that. Michael told us about the need for regulatory certainty. That’s pretty important these days as governments think about what’s working and what’s not, when it comes to climate action. And Danni reminded us what this is really all about, which is people and planet. The work that she and the communities around the Great Bear Rainforest are doing has to be front of mind when we think about carbon pricing and carbon markets and what we need to do collectively over the remaining years of this decade to mobilize the capital. The people all over the country and around the world are waiting to put to work. Until next time. I’m John Stackhouse and this is Disruptors, an RBC podcast. Talk to you soon.
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