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One-time initiatives complementing Canada’s 2027-2029 Immigration Levels Plan will accelerate permanent residency for workers already in Canada, bringing the permanent resident (PR) admissions ceiling to a historic high in 2027. Though official targets remain unchanged—380,000 new permanent residents (PRs) and 370,000 temporary resident (TR) admissions annually—overlapping one-time exemptions create room for a modest population boost following a period of significant population deceleration.
Permanent residents: a person given status to remain in Canada on a permanent basis but is not a Canadian citizen.
Non-permanent residents (temporary residents): include internationals students, temporary foreign workers, and others on temporary permits.
While a significant share of PR admissions are intended to come from transitioning non-permanent residents (NPRs) already in the country, historical precedent suggests achieving large outflows of NPRs in short order—through transitions or departures—can be difficult to achieve. This introduces upside to population growth as more TRs remain in the country. Lower barriers for high-earning and in-demand applicants already in Canada—including reduced point thresholds for specific categories, major point boosts for high-wage workers, and the elimination of the Labour Market Impact Assessment requirement—may also entice more TRs to stay by transitioning to permanent residency.
The net population impact will depend on how fully these temporary measures are utilized and how many new PR admissions come from the domestic NPR pool that would’ve otherwise left the country.
Given the abundance of inventory in the housing market, a modest acceleration in population growth doesn’t introduce substantial risk to affordability near-term. That said, this could quickly change as existing pent-up demand is unlocked. Other critical infrastructure, like healthcare, the power grid, and water management systems may not have the same buffer.
Permanent resident inflow could spike in 2027
Overlapping one-time measures introduced in consecutive immigration plans could allow Canada to admit more than 600,000 new permanent residents in 2027—the highest annual intake on record. On top of the official 380,000 PR target, last year’s plan included exemptions for up to 115,000 protected persons and their dependents as well as 33,000 skilled workers already in the country over 2026 and 2027. Based on the updated 2026 allocations, 82,000 of these admissions are expected to carry into 2027. The latest plan layers an additional 200,000 transitions to these existing commitments, bringing the total PR ceiling to 662,000 next year.
The admissions ceiling then returns to 380,000 in 2028 and 2029, and should allow the permanent resident population to float below 1% of the total population after briefly exceeding that threshold in 2027—a commitment the government introduced last year. These “one-time” initiatives are not scheduled to extend beyond 2027.
Temporary resident flows will determine Canada’s population outlook
The federal government is intently focused on drawing down Canada’s stock of 2.7 million non-permanent residents to bring their share of the population closer to the 5% target. The latest plan reinforces this objective by prioritising temporary resident conversions to permanent residency, adding 200,000 spaces to accelerate the transition.
But converting temporary residents form within Canada to permanent residency can still have implications for population growth. To the extent that these individuals would’ve otherwise left the country, facilitating their transition instead adds to the total population. Since roughly 200,000 NPRs transition to permanent residency annually anyway, the new exemption may also free up PR capacity for net new foreign arrivals. To have a neutral impact on population growth, the number of NPR conversions would need to double without reducing the number of departures from Canada.
This is a playbook we’ve seen before. The 2024 Levels Plan sought to significantly reduce the NPR population through departures and transitions to permanent residency. However, the intended outflow fell short by roughly half of target in 2025 and is tracking similarly behind in 2026. Meantime, permanent resident inflows remained broadly on target, with more than half of the intake coming from net new persons to Canada. The larger-than-expected NPR population prompted significant upward revisions to Canada’s population estimate earlier this year. The NPR share of the total population could drop below 6% next year—but even if the government successfully doubles the number of NPRs transitioning to permanent residency, it likely won’t reach its 5% goal in 2027.
About the author:
Rachel Battaglia is an economist at RBC, providing forecasts for the Canadian provincial economies and analyzing key trends in housing and consumer spending.
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