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Canada - ENAn in-depth analysis of the key drivers of economic activity in Canada and the US including a discussion of global factors that will affect these near term forecasts.
A forward-looking analysis of Canadian, U.S. and international financial market trends including interest rate and currency forecasts.
Financial Markets Monthly
Step by step: Trade talks lead to tariff de-escalation but hurdles remain
May 14, 2025
Highlights: Forecast changes: We are surprised that we aren’t more surprised. The weeks after a barrage of U.S. trade announcements in March and April have been calmer, and there are now early signs of the trade war de-escalating. New tariffs on auto parts for early May were diluted, critically for parts from Canada and Mexico […]
Macroeconomic Outlook
Canada’s macroeconomic outlook: U.S. trade risks are derailing a recovery
March 13, 2025
The threat of significant international trade disruptions is overshadowing what would have been a substantially improving Canadian economy.
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Financial Markets
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Tangled up in trade: The steep cost of closing doors
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Running up that bill — U.S. growth gains, debt pains
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Don’t stop me now – rate cuts to multiply from the BoC, ECB and the BoE
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Ease on down the road – Fed shifting gears as inflation slows
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Stayin’ Alive: The U.S. labour market is weakening, not faltering
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At Last: U.S. economy is showing signs of softening
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Let me see you get low: central banks kick off rate cutting cycle
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It’s hard to leave (higher rates) when you can’t find the door (to lower inflation)
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BoC and the Fed, you gotta keep ‘em separated
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U.S. outperformance continues but no sunshine yet for the Canadian economy
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New rules
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Ordinary pain
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Special edition – keeping an eye on Canada’s credit rating
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Under Pressure – softening outlook keeping central banks at bay
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Taking the long way home
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Letting it be – central banks hold the line as more clouds roll in
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Central banks hit “hopeful pause” on rate hikes
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Interest rates to stay higher for longer
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Triangulating terminal: take two
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Crunch time
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The waiting is the hardest part
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New legs, or familiar lags?
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Know when to hold ’em
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Triangulating terminal
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Past the peak
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Searching for the turning point
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Crossing the line(s)
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Front-loading can’t guarantee a soft landing
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Flagging growth won’t derail central bank rate hikes
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Shrinking runway for a soft landing
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Will tough-talking central banks follow through?
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End of an era
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Central banks playing catch-up
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Conflict in Europe brings more uncertainty, more inflation
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Moving on from pandemic stimulus
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Omicron won’t deter hawkish central banks
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Central banks weigh inflation, new variant
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Central banks feeling the pressure
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Central banks shuffling toward the exit
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Economic recovery delayed but not derailed
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Navigating the Delta variant
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Central bank divergence re-emerging
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Economies and markets in wait-and-see mode
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Central banks on different wavelengths
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Vaccines, restrictions driving near-term divergence
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Inflation Prospects Prompt Bond Market Reset
Economic Momentum ‘Strained’ in Early 2021
Rising COVID Cases Make for a Challenging Start to 2021
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Vaccine Rollout Boosts 2021 Growth Prospects
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The Balancing Act: Containment vs. Recovery
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Second Wave Threatens Recovery Momentum
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Economic Check-up after a Very Long 6 Months
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Economic Recovery Underway, but Risks Abound
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Managing COVID Outbreaks Key for the Path to Economic Recovery
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After Unprecedented Declines, an Uneasy Recovery Begins
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After the Fall
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Record-breaking Declines Ahead