This new generation enjoys better access to education and technology than any before, but also faces unique economic barriers as it enters a workforce profoundly disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. For Canada, the potential benefits, and risks, are enormous. The Indigenous population has been growing at four times the rate of the non-Indigenous population, and today more than half of First Nations and Inuit people are under the age of 30. Even before the pandemic, though, their economic pathways were broken. The probabilities of employment for First Nations youth were only 75% (and 87% for Metis), compared to 90% for non-Indigenous people. This new generation of Indigenous youth will be critical to the economic recovery. The nature of the recovery will also be critical to their prosperity. According to a new study by the Canadian Council of Aboriginal Business and the Diversity Institute of Ryerson University, the Canadian economy stands to gain $27.7 billion through better engagement of Indigenous youth. But not if we follow business as usual. We know the past decade transformed our economy, and world, through rapid advances in mobile communications, cloud computing and artificial intelligence. We anticipate these technology platforms will become even more powerful, and essential to a post-COVID economy. And as we design and fund policies for the recovery, we need to appreciate how this accelerated change can impact Indigenous youth. To better understand and inform the choices ahead, RBC’s Thought Leadership group has held a series of roundtables through the crisis, with Indigenous youth, educators and employers, as part of a long-term research initiative. The latest roundtable, on June 23, was co-chaired by RBC CEO Dave McKay and National Chief Perry Bellegarde, to hear from First Nations chiefs and Indigenous business leaders on what their communities and youth need in order to better prepare for a digitally-enabled recovery. While the group felt self-government remains the greatest challenge — and greatest opportunity for unlocking the economic potential of Indigenous communities — we know this commitment may require years more effort to fulfil. In the meantime, there are several concrete steps Canada can take to position this new generation for success. Here are five actionable ideas that emerged:

1. Strengthen school-to-work linkages

While high school completion rates among Indigenous youth improved significantly between 2006 and 2016, university completion rates worsened compared to non-Indigenous youth. One reason: poor employment for Indigenous students, especially in the service sectors. About 20% of the Indigenous workforce is employed in trades, transportation and equipment operations, compared to about 15% for the non-Indigenous population. By contrast, only 5.5% are employed in management positions, compared to 9% for the non-Indigenous workforce, and the gap is growing. As employers begin to rebuild and rehire, and governments commit billions to economic reconstruction, creating more workforce linkages for Indigenous students will be critical. This can start with more internships, co-ops and mentorships that cultivate both workplace skills and help youth develop meaningful aspirations. These experiences also create stronger links for youth to local labour markets. This approach to human capital needs to extend further into businesses, too, to ensure better Indigenous representation on corporate boards, participation in collective bargaining and access to training funds that should be part of all development projects.

2. Build connected infrastructure

Most Canadians take connectivity for granted. For Indigenous Canadians, that’s not the case. Nearly half of the status First Nations population lives on reserves, many of which are disconnected from the digital economy. A lack of reliable access to broadband not only limits commercial activity for Indigenous businesses; it constrains access to online learning, telehealth and remote work. The digital infrastructure for remote communities needs to be completed, no later than the federal promise of 2030, and in a way that anticipates future demands on networks. Indigenous ownership over infrastructure projects — digital, transportation, healthcare or energy — can strengthen the self-sufficiency of communities by providing diversified revenue and long-term employment. Building these connections will be exponentially more important to community prosperity in the post-COVID era where e-commerce is becoming the preference for many consumers, and big employers look to more distributed workforce models.

3. Rethink supply chains through Indigenous procurement

Cross-border disruptions during the COVID lockdowns highlighted vulnerabilities within essential supply chains, particularly healthcare equipment. As public and private sectors consider on-shoring sourcing of these and other goods, there is plenty of opportunity to launch new procurement partnerships with Indigenous firms across Canada. The capacity to innovate among Indigenous-owned businesses is strong, as evident in how many mobilized to produce personal protective equipment for their communities. Greater integration into corporate procurement also would create better outlets for services-based businesses to grow and diversify, from graphics design and payroll services to engineering and management consulting.

4. Accelerate low-carbon transition

The post-COVID reset will bring sustainable development into clearer focus; considering the triple bottom line of people, planet and profit. Canadians will be looking for better ways of balancing economic development and environmental stewardship. The transition to a low-carbon economy will take a phased approach — particularly in our resource-rich country — and doing so will rely on Indigenous knowledge. By making the proper investments now in their education and technologies, Indigenous youth can play a central role in developing the green-collar jobs of the 2020s and beyond. Many of them can become the climate experts of tomorrow, if given the chance to both gain traditional land-based training and cultivate skills in advanced technologies.

5. Expand capital-raising capacity

Securing capital has long been a hurdle for Indigenous businesses. While financial institutions have significantly increased capital availability, Indigenous enterprises still do not operate on a level playing field. Increasing access to credit will remain key to financing start-ups and the small business ecosystem that drives the Canadian economy, including in Indigenous communities; doing this well through the economic recovery requires funders to become enablers by engaging within communities and forging two-way communication. Yet, securing lasting prosperity in Indigenous communities will take bigger, bolder moves. Settling land claims is one channel to do so, while creating a culture of institutional investing is another. Greater access to equity markets will help to create own-source revenue, with shared stakes in successful infrastructure, development and resources. Linking these investments to skill development and succession planning may build inter-generational wealth.

The Issue

COVID-19 triggered a mass experiment in online education that will have a lasting impact on how and where Canadians learn. The abrupt change poses a fresh challenge for a Canadian higher-education system that was already preparing for an economic future that might look very different.

POV

Over the span of a few weeks in March, Canada’s post-secondary institutions moved more than 2 million students online. The swift transition provided some early lessons: most students can learn from anywhere, and educational institutions have the ability to transform quickly. As the urgency of managing the crisis shifts to securing Canada’s economic recovery, students looking to gain the skills to compete in the post-COVID world will demand more from digital education. Institutions should seize on this moment to give students and life-long learners greater flexibility in where, when and how they learn. The higher-education system is about to become more competitive. Nearly every post-secondary institution on the planet has just made significant investments in online tools and methods. For Canada to remain a global education leader that continues to attract the world’s brightest, our institutions will need to differentiate themselves. This starts with cultivating the scale needed to make online leaning profitable; collaborations across the sector could give students more choices and specializations. The next step requires an inclusive approach to alternative learning – either experiential learning or micro-credentials – that gives students flexibility in how and where they obtain academic credits. At the same time, educators will need to integrate the tools of augmented reality and machine learning to personalize education.

Key Findings

Nearly 1.6 billion learners have been affected by national school closures

Amid the pandemic, 91% of the world’s students were displaced from the classroom. In Canada, more than 7 million students had to shift their learning style: 5.1 million in K-12, 1.2 million in universities, and 800,000 in colleges and polytechnics. The 540,000 students completing post-secondary education this year likely completed their programs remotely.

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Canadian institutions historically lacked the resources or expertise to fully develop online learning

About 16% of university and 12% of college students learned primarily online in 2019, while more than one-third of undergraduates had at least one course with blended learning. Despite wider usage of online tools, funding and staffing issues have hampered digital education at half of universities and colleges, more so among smaller institutions.

Canada’s advantage in international student attraction is at risk

New international student permits dropped by 45% in March (year-over-year). Ongoing travel restrictions and visa-processing delays will likely stall international student arrivals in the coming months. These students pay about $6 billion in tuition alone to universities and colleges each year.

Digital spending comprised only 2.5% of global education expenditures pre-lockdown

Despite a 14x increase in EdTech venture capital since 2010, digital spending remains a small fraction of education budgets. Pre-crisis forecasts expected spending to reach 4.3% of budgets by 2025. Investment activity has been concentrated in China and the United States. Last year they attracted 52% and 33%, respectively, of digital education investments.

Key Questions

1. Will the explosion of remote-based learning lead to more options for students? The simple answer is ‘yes.’ The longer schools remain unable to teach the way they used to, the more sticky remote-based learning will become. Students and educators will want to retain the experiences and tools they like. Post-pandemic, institutions can expect to have a tougher time attracting students. With students realizing they can learn from anywhere, institutions will need to show why their campus experience is different. Online education has the potential to be a great leveler among institutions. Schools of any size, location or level can provide unique offerings through online education: it is borderless, scalable and untethered to the traditional academic calendar. At the same time, students are looking for job-ready skills for a fast-changing labour market. Online non-degree granting institutions, such as edX, Coursera and Udemy, can create and scale new, skills-focused courses faster than universities. What if a student could get credit for them? Self-directed programs – where students choose from a menu of micro-credentials; online, on-campus or blended learning; and courses from a variety of institutions – may become an option in the not-too-distant future. We’ll need to expand the traditional boundaries of higher education, with accredited institutions giving more credit for learning in all forms. While some universities are recognizing Massive Open Online Courses (or MOOCs) in their admissions practices, the real friction point will be within the credit transfer system. One example of more flexible learning is South Korea’s Academic Credit Bank (ACBS), where students can complete studies across institutions, based on their own pace and preferences; once they amass sufficient core, general and elective credits, the ACBS will certify their record and the Ministry of Education can issue a degree (without attachment to any individual institution). Such an experience would give students plenty of options in designing their own learning. 2. Which learners are most vulnerable to disruption? As online education requires both personal digital devices and strong internet connections, students that lack access to either are most vulnerable to losing out. About one in four Canadian households in lower-income categories use smartphones as their primary internet access. Roughly 10% of households – mostly in rural areas – lack reliable broadband internet. Indigenous students are over-represented in these categories. And for students with accessibility concerns, institutions may need to provide custom digital tools to ensure continuity in their learning. The current ambiguity of when schools can return to normal operations will influence how some students make decisions with long-term impacts. In any other year, about 40,000 high school students will drop out of studies. This year, we are likely to see higher numbers, as nearly 300,000 are at higher risk of not completing a diploma due to economic insecurity. For those entering university, college and trades programs this year, orientation is likely to be a remote experience too. Many schools are considering whether to change the timing of first-year courses, including front-loading online-ready courses to the fall, even those that previously had strict pre-requisites. Education consultant Alex Usher has called on Canadian universities to collaborate on a common, online first-year curriculum for 2020 entrants. Given uncertainties around the student experience in 2020/2021, one in four students is considering a gap year or leave of absence, according to recent Ivy Research Council surveys. 3. Will online learning in Canada still appeal to international students? This remains to be seen, and is a critical question: international students are big business for our schools. If they are unable to enter Canada, we will need to find new ways of marketing a Canadian credential to non-residents. At the start of 2020, over 640,000 foreign nationals held study permits; while at least 293,000 new permits were issued in 2019 alone, across all learning levels. In post-secondary, the international student population has doubled in the last five years to 500,000, nearly one in four students, contributing about $22 billion in GDP and about 11,000 new permanent residents annually. Amid lockdowns, new student arrivals dropped in Q1 2020, while severe declines should be expected for the foreseeable future. To stem enrolment declines, the federal government is permitting new international students to begin their programs in their home country, complete up to 50% of their program via distance learning, and assuring access to post-graduate work permits. However, the shift to online learning greatly alters an international student’s experience if they’re unable to reside in Canada during their studies and make connections, while still paying nearly double the tuition of domestic students. About 26% of study permit holders (or 168,000) come from countries with the most aggressive online censorship regimes. Access to Canadian education resources cannot be guaranteed for this group. Colleges and universities should prepare for a high degree of enrolment deferrals to Winter 2021 or later, and the resulting need to restructure course prerequisites and in-year bridging programs. Colleges that offer career-transition programs for international students – which have experienced enormous growth in the previous 15 years – could be greatly impacted for two reasons. First, online learning won’t provide the hands-on, workplace-based learning that’s integral for these mostly health care workers or tradespeople. Second, uncertainty of the job market in Canada will dissuade many from taking the risk of relocating. 4. Can job-ready skills be cultivated through online learning? Without question, learning remotely develops skills that employers demand. It requires students to manage their time effectively, strengthen their written communications and foster a digital aptitude to work alongside technology. And right now, the biggest lessons students are gaining aren’t academic; it’s about being resilient and adaptive. These will be key attributes for their future. However, the online environment can fall short in developing socio-emotional skills like active listening, speaking and critical thinking skills. RBC’s 2018 report, Humans Wanted, concluded that these skills will be in the highest demand by Canadian employers. Online instruction requires a different pedagogy than in-person learning to achieve the same outcomes, and to develop these human skills it needs to support various forms of social interaction. Athabasca University, Canada’s largest online-only school, doesn’t try to replicate the classroom in digital form. But it has taken a learner-centered approach to skills development, encouraging peer-to-peer interactions through team-based learning and virtual study groups. Athabasca’s April enrolment grew by 12.3% for undergraduate and 10.7% for graduate studies; an early signal of student preferences in the COVID-19 era. Work integrated learning (or WIL) has become a part of studies for nearly 60% of post-secondary students, as it cultivates workplace skills and professional networks that can facilitate smoother transitions to employment. The lockdown has made these opportunities impossible for many employers; about one-third of students have lost or delayed their WIL placement. Virtual WIL has been an alternative for some students, and this format may stick around. Vancouver-based Riipen Networks, which creates short-term, virtual work projects for students, has now engaged with 45,000 students across 200 schools in North America. For coops, Canadian university administrators (via CEWIL) have ensured that students will receive credit for such Virtual WIL projects. 5. Can learning on a massive scale become more personalized? If it can’t, students are more likely to disengage. While online learning requires scale to be profitable – such as classes of hundreds or thousands of students – it must offer learners personalized experiences. The market for EdTech is as hot as it’s ever been, with VC activity reaching US$3 billion in Q1 2020, or about the entire value of deals in all of 2016. In highest demand are the tools that promise to make the digital experience unique for each learner. Augmented and virtual reality are being used to replace live subjects (e.g. nursing, dental) or to provide access to expensive test equipment (e.g. machine repair, construction). These tools allow students to practice and explore in new environments without risk of harm or error. EdTech market watcher HolonIQ is most optimistic on AR/VR, predicting a 7x increase in spending by 2025. Adapted for smartphones, these tools could usher in a new wave of remote learning including to virtual laboratories and situation-based learning that may be impossible in a physical environment. Artificial intelligence will be a huge disruptor for education in the 2020s. While chat-bot tutors might reduce demands on faculty and real-time translators could break down language barriers, machine learning has the potential to completely alter student assessments. By understanding and documenting a student’s progress through digital-based learning, AI can develop customized learning plans. Applied broadly, these tools could eliminate aged-based grade levels in K-12 or change course pre-requisites to skill requirements for progression in post-secondary. The infrastructure of education may be transformed too by blockchain technology, where credentials could be instantly verified. Such a system could lead to simplified credit transfers between institutions and stacking of credentials. This could open the possibility of a personal skills registry, where one’s skills, credentials and ongoing learning achievements are certified and accessible. 6. Are post-secondary institutions at an inflection point for their business model? COVID-19 may precipitate the largest pivot in the delivery of higher education we’ve ever seen. Enrolment and revenue declines, combined with increased costs in technology, will force institutions to innovate. Those that can’t will be left behind. First, we cannot ignore the transformation schools made to get over 2 million learners online in March. This is a major achievement, considering nearly two-thirds of Canadian post-secondary institutions cited faculty resistance as the main barrier to providing more online course options prior to COVID-19. Many educators believed online delivery limited outcomes, primarily that students were unable to self-regulate their learning. Any of these misgivings have given way – at least temporarily – to emergency measures, and institutions have been making strides on technology and course design. Second, the institutions that had previously invested in online education are best positioned to pivot their operations. Université de Laval initiated its own learning platform in the late-2000s, through the Laval Academy of Digital Transformation; prior to COVID, 71% of its courses did not have an online component, but by end of March 95% of its courses transitioned to the online platform. At the University of Windsor, the Office of Open Learning quickly deployed resources and training for faculty to go “online in a hurry”. Bite-sized training through templates, tools, as well as blogs and podcasts, were shared across institutions. The University of Waterloo has hired over 300 summer students to work with faculty to transition courses online for fall 2020. Finally, we will see a breakdown of the artificial barriers between Canada’s higher-education institutions. Many of which are already facing pressures to reduce costs, amid soaring public debts and expected enrolment declines. Stronger collaborations between universities and colleges will be needed to reduce duplication of and increase access to online resources. Sharing of course and learning materials is already practiced by the Maple League of schools in Atlantic Canada, the Tri-University Group in southern Ontario, and through Education City in Ottawa. Going forward, these types of partnerships will be necessary to coordinate online course offerings that maximize student options and experiences.

What we’re watching:

Canada’s higher education system has an opportunity to transform, to become a global player in online education, even in a post-pandemic world. To differentiate itself, things to consider:

• Collaborations among universities, colleges and polytechnics on common digital learning platforms, as well as shared online curricula.

• Proposals to modernize the credit transfer system that recognize micro-credentials and experiential learning completions towards a diploma or degree.

• Changes to the traditional academic calendar, with higher enrolments in spring/summer terms, as well as rolling start dates for online students.

• New forms of engagement with international students that may include more in-country presence of Canadian institutions.

• Greater demand for course designers to develop pedagogy that adds AR/VR and machine learning to create personalized student experiences.

To learn more about how Canada can leverage its strength in education to become a global player in online learning, listen to our podcast episode.

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In other words, no need for that AI flu vaccine.

In a new Gallup survey for Northeastern University, 61% of Canadians and 71% of Americans think artificial intelligence will eliminate more jobs than it creates. Roughly half of those respondents think AI will also decrease the number of good jobs out there.

But the vast majority also think they’re immune to automation.

Despite a general concern about the impact of AI, only 37% of Canadians and 17% of Americans think their job will be eliminated because of smart technologies.

The Gallup results were presented at a recent Future of Work discussion at Northeastern’s Toronto campus, put on by the Ontario Chamber of Commerce and RBC.

Helena Gottschling, RBC’s global head of human resources, told the forum that in financial services, automation is leading to new and different jobs – and a changing mix of skills – which means an ever-growing need for lifelong learning.

More than half of RBC’s 55,000 Canadian employees are enrolled in a digital learning program, often offered in the form of mobile and modular programs for skills ranging from digital troubleshooting to communications.

In the Gallup survey, 92% of Canadians (and 95% of Americans) said they want some form of ongoing learning through their careers – not surprising given that two thirds of them worry their skills will be outdated within a decade.

Despite those worries, few know what skills they’ll need to thrive in an AI-powered economy, but there was strong agreement across Canada, the U.S. and Britain that people will need so-called soft skills like teamwork, communication, creativity and critical thinking.

Gottschling agreed with that assessment, saying “the shelf life of tech skills will be shorter, while the shelf life of human skills will be just as long.”

A greater concern in the study was a lack of confidence in universities — for Canadians as well as American and Britons – to prepare graduates for the jobs of tomorrow. A rating of high confidence was lowest (3%) in the U.S.

A plurality of respondents viewed employers as best-equipped to provide career-long education and training.

Gottschling said most employees need solutions that are affordable, time-efficient and relevant to their ambitions. And then there’s mindset. Do people have the will and skill to learn?

The decade is wrapping up with a very different kind of championship held in the same arena. The Dota 2 tournament — the Super Bowl of electronic gaming — in Vancouver’s Rogers Arena and ensuing launch of a local pro esports team are just the latest indications of how much society, and the skills economy, can move in a decade.

From goal scorer to global gamer.

Few might have predicted such a change, or the massive surge in software jobs driven by gaming, social media and on-demand services. And yet, in the past decade, software publishing jobs have gone from 31,000 to 50,000, while jobs in computer systems design have grown from 155,000 to 258,000. The video gaming industry says it now accounts for 48,000 full-time equivalent jobs, with growth of more than 10% a year.

The skills revolution brought on by everything from gaming to the gig economy is just one reason most provinces are reviewing every level of education, as governments grapple with the ongoing challenge of people without jobs and jobs without people.

I was part of a panel discussion on the subject at the Canadian Club of Toronto, to explore how post-secondary education can better prepare students for a rapidly changing world of work.

Anne Sado, President of Toronto’s George Brown College, said we need to:

• Make learning highly personalized, as students have very different needs.
• Mix the classroom with digital and experiential learning.
• Connect the curriculum with industry and community.
• Set the stage for life-long learning.
• Make resilience the fourth R.

Ross Romano, Ontario’s post-secondary Education Minister, stressed the need to connect research with commercial opportunities. It’s not only about driving economic value from campuses; it’s about building an innovation economy between employers, entrepreneurs and educators.

I told the audience we can expect three trends in the 2020s:

• More educators entering the market, as demand grows for lifelong learning.
• More individuals focused on skills training. Think of how we approach fitness.
• More educators competing for that demand, and coming up with more creative and convenient approaches to teaching. Perhaps a Netflix for learning, with device-based, on-demand, shareable and snackable lessons.

I recently led a roundtable of employers to discuss what the elementary and secondary school systems might consider to better prepare youth for those challenges. The group included some of Canada’s biggest companies, trade unions, non-profits, small business representatives and public sector organizations.

Here’s what they said we need:

1. More computational thinking. We don’t need a nation of coders; we do need a generation who think like coders.

2. 
   

   More digital design thinking, with students focused on problem solving, teamwork, iterative work models and data-driven solutions. “It’s a mindset,” one employer said.

3. 
   

   New ways to connect teachers to practitioners.

4. 
   

   Gen C skills: compassion, communication, collaboration, complex problem solving and critical thinking. They’re the skills most in demand, not least because of the ongoing boom in healthcare.

5. 
   

   Digital learning. It will become commonplace in organizations.

6. 
   

   Entrepreneurship. Even large organizations need more of those basic skills.

7. 
   

   Trades. Most of Canada is facing a critical shortage. Schools need to get students — and parents — thinking more seriously about it.

8. 
   

   Work-integrated learning. More co-ops, internships and apprenticeships, starting in high school. It’s not only good for the student; it injects organizations with fresh thinking and new energy.

9. 
   

   Learning to learn. Students need to be taught to become better problem solvers and approach challenges in new ways.

10. 
    

    Partnerships. No one sector or educator can address the skills shortage alone. Yet a failure to address those shortages will hurt economic productivity for all.

But in a workforce buffeted by technological change, healthcare has an advantage.

Due to the profoundly human nature of the work, advanced technologies don’t pose a significant threat to the physicians, nurses, therapists and others who provide all manner of care to Canadians. Automation will create efficiencies and replace some work, but don’t expect a robot to deliver a cancer diagnosis or replace hands-on homecare anytime soon.

That’s a welcome prognosis, but Canada’s healthcare sector is facing a critical test. The country’s aging population is poised to become a silver tsunami that will add another $120 billion in healthcare costs over the next decade. To harness the full power of technology in a country where one in four people will be seniors, the sector will need to embrace new ways of working.

According to Paging Dr. Data, a new RBC report, around 17% of occupations in the healthcare sector face a risk from automation—half the level faced by the workforce as a whole.

The sector’s robust job creation is also set to continue: there will be 370,000 job openings by 2025, and the sector will be short of workers under even the most optimistic of projections. The shortfall offers a potential career path for workers displaced in other sectors, many of whom already have some of the core skills sought in healthcare.

Which brings us to the reskilling challenge. Canada’s healthcare system needs to up its skills game, and fast. Workers hoping to make the leap into healthcare will need the time, funds, and external support to prepare for a career switch. Those already in the sector will need to retrain for disruptive technologies. And the sector will be looking for entirely new skills too. Think wearable-device coding and 3D printing design.

In a sea of specialists, our research revealed some themes in terms of skills needed: digital fluency (the ability to interact with and analyze data, not just collect it), an ability to deliver virtual care (as telemedicine expands), and navigational skills (to assist patients’ journey through an increasingly complex health system). Finally, the human skills at the core of the best healthcare—empathy, active listening, critical thinking and complex problem-solving—will be more important than ever.

The skills revolution is already happening in healthcare. Educators are adapting courses from other disciplines, and training for adaptability and resiliency. Doctors are talking to AI specialists about how they can build algorithms to improve care. Hospitals are adopting some of the state-of-the-art technology, enabling them to attract new talent.

Properly designed, a mix of technology, skills and innovative management can help Canada prepare for the silver tsunami. We still have time to get it right. But there’s a particular urgency to making the skills economy work for healthcare.

To learn more about the impending silver tsunami and its implications on Canada’s healthcare sector, listen to our podcast episode, Solving for the Silver Tsunami.

 

Yet, vegetables are the most human-intensive food products to produce, and the sector is heading towards an enormous labour shortage in the 2020s. In a recent RBC report, Farmer 4.0: How the coming skills revolution can transform agriculture, our researchers identified greenhouses as a “frontier” sector for automation, with great potential to boost output and alleviate labour shortages. Today, for every $1 spent on labour, greenhouses produce $3.88 in revenue; while at the other extreme, beef operators earn $33.73 by leveraging efficiencies of machinery and scale. Making such a transformation for indoor vegetables requires innovative, data-driven and high-skilled agricultural business owners to take risks and seize the opportunities presented by advanced technologies.

The next Generation of Farmer

Hardeep and Teranjit Singh – business partners and brothers – exemplify the traits needed to succeed in the fourth agricultural revolution. As operators of Singh Greenhouses in Flamborough, Ontario, they ship 15 million English cucumbers per year across Canada and the U.S., grown over 24 acres of greenhouses. They are part of an incoming generation of young agricultural producers that bring a mix of experience, education and experimentation to a sector undergoing a high tech revolution. “To succeed in this industry today, you have no choice but to go to school to gain the requisite knowledge,” Hardeep says. “Precision agriculture has become the standard.” An agriculture graduate of the University of Guelph, he is looking to bring a universe of digital, scientific and automation solutions into their business to reduce costs and boost output. Data has become a fertile input for their business decisions. Last year, the Singhs instituted a new digital tracking system across their facility that allows them to monitor the health and output of their 154,000 plants in real time. The system has also given them a trove of data on their productivity, which they’re using to set targets and offer performance incentives to their 33 greenhouse staff. For Teranjit, a graduate of Niagara College’s greenhouse technician program, improving product quality and reducing input costs through technology is a central focus. “The industry is changing so fast. We need to continuously learn about what has and hasn’t worked across the sector to make the best business decisions.” On example is a new cogeneration facility, where they produce electricity for nearly 9,000 area homes and capture the resulting CO2 to optimize greenhouse growing conditions.

Forming Human-machine Partnerships

The looming labour challenge for the greenhouse sector is severe. According to research by the Canadian Agricultural Human Resources Council (CAHRC), the sector will need to address a shortage of 29,900 domestic workers, or 55% of roles, within a decade. Already, over 40% of greenhouse and horticultural staff are temporary foreign workers, accounting for nearly two-thirds of all the foreign workers in agriculture. A major question for researchers in the sector is, how can technology alleviate the labour gap? A leader in this effort is the Vineland Research and Innovation Centre, which is working on robotic cucumber harvesters. “The technology is still developing, where tasks that are low skill for human hands remain complex for machinery,” says Tania Humphrey, Vineland’s Chief Science Officer. “But even as machines learn best practices, complex biological systems will remain that require human intervention.” For the Singhs, attracting and retaining staff is a perpetual challenge, in physically demanding jobs. “This line of work is a lifestyle that may require four hours one day and 14 on another, Hardeep says.” To normalize some of these pressures, they have invested in a new optical and robotic sorting, grading and packing line that can handle 14,000 cucumbers in an hour. Once in place, they will be able to divert the labour saved from the packing facility to tend and harvest more crops.

Mixing Traditional with Tomorrow’s Skills

With an increasingly digital and mechanized workplace, the skills required of greenhouse workers are changing, and educators are having to update how they train students to be job ready in the sector. At the University of the Fraser Valley, robotics and automation was added to its horticulture program in 2014. The school has been working closely with industry to identify the skills needed for the agricultural jobs of tomorrow and has shifted its greenhouse program towards more project oriented assignments. Students are challenged to draw on various data and hands-on learning to question “how do we do this better?” Tom Baumann, an associate professor at UFV, says that agriculture educators need to “marry the old knowledge and the new technology” and encourage students to problem solve in an environment that uses both. He sees further automation of the sector as a necessity, but stresses how detrimental “losing agricultural knowledge to an algorithm” would be.

Capturing the Skills Benefit

Disruption is happening across the agri-food industry in Canada. New, high-skilled roles are emerging that promise to attract a new generation of food producer. If we are able to match people with the right skills to these jobs, our research shows that Canadian agriculture could add an additional $11 billion in output by 2030. This growth mindset is deep-seated between Hardeep and Teranjit Singh. They’ve already broken ground on a new greenhouse, where they will expand to new crops – peppers and baby cucumbers – and leverage their experience and skills with new technology and data. This is the fourth agricultural revolution in action.