EN 
By Rachel Battaglia and Abbey Xu
October spending snapshot: RBC cardholder spending held on to September’s momentum in October, reinforcing consumer resilience despite ongoing economic uncertainties. RBC’s core retail sales grew 0.5% on a three-month rolling average basis, showing a solid start to Q4.
The Blue Jays in the World Series provided a notable lift to discretionary spending, particularly in Ontario, underscoring consumer appetite for experiences even amid economic headwinds.
Entertainment spending accelerates amid Jays excitement
RBC cardholder spending remained positive on a three-month moving average basis across all major spending categories we track.
Most of October’s spending strength came from entertainment and arts—a category that has been surging since provincial rules were relaxed around online gambling, expanding consumer accessibility.
But sports games appear to have bolstered the gain in October. Almost all of the increase in entertainment and arts spending came from Ontario, which hosted four of seven World Series games—three taking place in October.
Slower growth emerged in dining—another key segment of discretionary spending—though the moderation follows an impressive pace earlier in the year. In level terms, RBC cardholder spending on dining remains near record highs. Ontario bucked the trend with dining spending among RBC cardholders accelerating in October—a pattern likely influenced by World Series excitement.
Meanwhile, spending on household and construction remains among the weakest categories, likely reflecting subdued homebuying and renovation activity. Nonetheless, we see encouraging signs of life in this category with spending hitting an 18-month high in October after slowly building momentum in recent months.
This uptick coincides with early signs of housing market stabilization, though it remains too early to declare a sustained recovery for this spending category.
Regional trends: Ontario and B.C. cardholders continue to show resilience
Most provinces saw spending increase in October from September, extending gains that have been building throughout the year.
Most East Coast provinces continue to lead spending growth so far this year, though RBC cardholder spending in Ontario and British Columbia remains surprisingly strong, despite significant headwinds. Labour market challenges in Ontario and slowing population growth across both provinces have not dampened consumer spending, pointing to underlying household strength.
We expect pent up demand is playing a role here. Households in Ontario and B.C. carry the highest debt burdens in the country, making them more sensitive to interest rate movements. Consumers in these provinces pulled back more sharply than others during the elevated rate environment of 2023 and 2024. Now that rates have declined, cardholders in these provinces appear to be spending more aggressively as financial conditions ease.
About the Authors
Rachel Battaglia is an economist at RBC, providing analysis and forecasts for consumer spending trends and provincial economies.
Abbey Xu is an economist at RBC. She is a member of the macroeconomic analysis group, focusing on macroeconomic forecasting models and providing timely analysis and updates on economic trends.
By Carrie Freestone
RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewelers, among others. We exclude purely financial transactions such as cash advances and insurance from spending.
We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas using a 7 day rolling sample starting January 1st of each year that is indexed to pre-covid levels which are calculated as the average spending for the month of February 2020. To examine the impact of seasonal factors, we also show each’s year spending profile which depicts monthly trends in spending. Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization.
Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.
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