Skip to main content

Buildings

down arrow14%
drop in sector
emissions since 2019
down arrow19%
drop in sector emissions
Intensity since 2019
Policy
Capital
Action
Emissions

Buildings Climate Action Index | 2019 = base year

  • Growth in LEED-certified buildings boosted the Climate Action Index. Canada’s total LEED floor stock rose an estimated 5% from 2024 to 2025, while the use of mass timber, up 0.6%, also improved the sector’s action score.47

  • Just over a quarter of a million heat pumps are installed in Canada. Federal support and provincial rebate programs helped accelerate residential heat pump deployment, with more than 271,000 pumps installed over the past five years.48 Most recent data from 2023 shows 8% of Canadian households run on heat pumps.49

  • Private capital investment dropped compared to 2024, according to our estimates.50 We believe it was mostly driven by cooling investor sentiment towards early-stage technology companies. The removal of the consumer carbon price also lowered the policy score.

  • A $10.9-billion commitment to expanding energy-efficiency programs in Ontario boosted the capital score. A suite of new and continuing programs with a 12-year framework was announced in 2025. The new provincial Home Renovation Savings Program aims to encourage use of rooftop solar panels, heat pumps, and other measures in an effort to meet the equivalent of 70% of Toronto’s summer peak electricity demand.51

  • Emissions are not falling quickly enough. Based on our research, building sector emissions are projected to drop 1% in 2025 relative to 2024, a pace at which Canada may struggle to get to net-zero for buildings by 2050.52 The sector accounts for 18% of Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions (including electricity-related emissions), and that could rise by a further 18-million tonnes if new projects are built with prevailing codes.53

CASE STUDY

A new kind of building code

The Challenge

The federal government is trying to spur a doubling of construction to nearly 500,000 homes a year. More homes equal more emissions.54

The Idea

For Oliver David Krieg, President of Vancouver-based Intelligent City, it all starts with a product platform. Intelligent City developed a prefabricated platform for multi-family housing, which incorporates robotic assembly processes and software automation to enable design flexibility. “Instead of manually designing the artifact–the building–you design the algorithm that designs the building,” said Krieg, who was named president earlier this year after several years as the company’s Chief Technology Officer.

Traditional design approaches, Krieg said, have hurt widespread adoption of prefab. The Intelligent City platform can accommodate many styles and offers scalability by making an assembly-line approach to production possible. “We can create this level of mass customization that is beyond anything we've ever seen,” Krieg said. “A robot doesn't care what it does as long as you give it the code.”

As for the material of choice, Intelligent City landed on mass timber for several reasons. “It can be grown sustainably, and it is very machinable,” Krieg said. It lends itself to prefab because it's lightweight and easy to manipulate. Mass timber drives automation because, while lightweight relative to concrete, panels are still bigger and heavier than what a human can carry.55

The Obstacles

The mass timber industry remains in its early stages of evolution. Issues such as insurance and finance remain challenging, although the federal government is setting policy initiatives to help scale the sector.56

Intelligent City’s first project was an 80-unit affordable housing project in Vancouver, not far from its manufacturing facility in Delta. When Windmill Developments approached the company about partnering on a project in Toronto, the team at Intelligent City was intrigued. But a project 4,000 kilometres from its factory carried with it new challenges. Krieg knew it only made financial sense if the company had a manufacturing facility near Toronto, but building one for a single project was a non-starter. He also knew that while the project would be a loss leader for Intelligent City, it would introduce the company to another major market (a potential future site of a second manufacturing facility) and allow Intelligent City to “prove the whole thing works.” So the company got to work, producing the components—the walls and floors—at its Delta facility, which is home to five robots and 30 staff, and shipped them on flatbeds across the country.

Like any new technology, there have been some bumps in the road. For one thing, it’s difficult to schedule a construction site when you’re at the mercy of cross-country shipping on land. “Theoretically,” said Krieg, “if all the trucks were lined up and ready to go, you could have put up the structure and envelope in about 45 days.” Instead, the first panels arrived in May and the structure and envelope will be complete in November 2025.

The Insight

For a long time, Intelligent City didn't define the design variability it could offer in enough detail. As a result, clients—developers, architects, engineers—sought bespoke solutions. The risk, Krieg said, is “you become a custom panel builder and lose cost efficiency and speed.” Offering choice is important, he said, “but we needed to home in on what’s possible.”

Another learning: design, performance and sustainability are great attributes, but it all comes down to the price. Ultimately, prefab’s speed-to-market metric could be a gamechanger. Constructing a highly finished prefab mass timber building four to six months faster than the concrete version has the potential of being a breakthrough. Faster construction equals less construction overhead and financing costs. “You can redeploy your capital four to six months faster—you can build 25% more buildings with the same capital,” Krieg said. “The time value of money is significant.”

Endnote 2
We track climate related funding and expenditures announced in the budgets of the federal government and the four largest provincial governments (British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario and Quebec). This includes announced plans towards climate- and environment-related initiatives focused on decarbonization, innovation, energy efficiency, fuel switching, clean and low-carbon technology manufacturing and deployment, skills, re-search and planning. It also includes transfer payments, program spending, tax expenditures, and select public financing. Total expenditure amounts are equally spread over timeframe announced in the budgets. For select items, expenditure amounts are distributed over the years as prescribed in the budgets.
Endnote 3
Refer to endnote 2.
Endnote 5
Emissions intensity for the electricity sector is calculated as the sector's total GHG emissions divided by the total electricity generation in any given year. Emissions for 2024 were taken from the Canadian Climate Institute's Early Estimate of National Emissions. For 2025, we estimated emissions based on our forecasted change in electricity generation from both coal and natural gas. For information on how we forecasted the changes in electricity generation from coal and natural gas, refer to the Methodology section: Sectoral Climate Action Indices, Section D. Emissions - Electricity.
Endnote 6
For buildings, emissions intensity estimates are defined as emissions (tonnes CO2 equivalent) per square meter of floor space. Emissions data was sourced from the Canadian Climate Institute’s Early Estimates of National Emissions and Environment and Climate Change Canada’s 2024 Reference Case emissions projections. Floor space data for residential and commercial buildings was sourced from Natural Resources Canada’s Comprehensive Energy Use Database. For years where NRCan estimates were unavailable, floor space was projected using a simple linear trend informed by recent historical growth, providing an indicative estimate aligned with current patterns in building activity. Emissions intensities were calculated separately for the residential and commercial sectors and rolled up into a single measure using a weighted average determined by floor space.
Endnote 8
Total oil and gas production in 2025 is derived from Canada Energy Regulator data on the production of crude oil and equivalent and marketable produced gas volumes, annualized and adjusted for seasonality and aligned with RBC Capital Markets’ fundamental supply and demand model for Canadian oil and gas production. Total oil and gas emissions are summed up from estimated emissions as noted in detail in Endnotes 81-85.
Endnote 8
Agriculture emissions intensity estimates are based on primary agriculture emissions and production out-puts, covering on-farm nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide, and methane emissions from both crop and animal production. Emissions intensity is measured by dividing primary agriculture emissions by national total on-farm outputs (i.e., crops and animals in tonnes). The data sources for the estimated emissions intensity are annual GHG emission estimates reported by Environment and Climate Change Canada in the National GHG Inventory Report and the National GHG Emission Projections, and annual agriculture production of crops and livestock are reported by Statistics Canada.
Endnote 9
Transportation sector emissions consist of five major categories: (1) cars, light trucks and motorcycles, (2) bus, rail and aviation, (3) heavy-duty trucks, rail, (4) aviation and marine, and (5) other: recreational, commercial and residential. Cars, light trucks and motorcycles, and heavy-duty trucks and rail make up about 80% of the sector emissions, which we attempt to estimate based on directional trends. For other categories we apply 10-year average for 2024 and 2025. We use data from IBIS World that provide total vehicle-kilometres driven (version published in Oct 2024), which represents “the total annual sum of kilometres driven by all motor vehicles over the calendar year.” Further, we use 2009 Canadian Vehicle Survey Summary Report published by Natural Resources Canada, which breaks down kilometres driven by vehicle type–of which around 90% are travelled by light vehicles (gross vehicle weight less than 4.5 tonnes) and ~10% by medium and heavy trucks (gross vehicle weight between 4.5 and 15 t, and gross vehicle weight of 15 t or more). Using ICE vehicle fleet sizes for passenger and medium and heavy commercial vehicles, we derived historical emissions intensity per kilometre driven. Fleet size for passenger vehicles is sourced from Statistics Canada’s Table 23-10-0308-01, and commercial vehicle fleet size is sourced from BloombergNEF’s Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook 2025 dataset published in June 2025. Using the average of the derived ratio between 2021-2023, we estimate emissions for both cars, light trucks and motorcycles, and heavy-duty trucks, rail categories for 2024 and 2025. Sectoral emissions intensity is derived by ratio of total sectoral emissions and total vehicle-kilometres driven.
Endnote 10
For heavy industry, we define emissions intensity in terms of kilotonnes of emissions (CO2e) per kilotonne of industrial production across the following heavy industrial sub-sectors as stated in Canada’s National Inventory Report: mining, smelting and refining (non-ferrous metals), pulp and paper, iron and steel, cement, and chemicals and fertilizers. Annual production figures (up to 2023) per sub-sector were sourced from the Canadian Energy and Emissions Data Centre, at Simon Fraser University, which are based on proprietary estimates as well as databases including World Steel and the Global Cement and Concrete Association. Annual emissions figures are sourced from the Canadian Climate Institute’s Early Estimates of National Emissions. Emissions intensities per heavy industrial sub-sector were rolled up into a composite estimate using a weighted average, with weights corresponding to each sub-sector’s contributions to Canada’s heavy industry emissions across all stated sub-sectors.
Endnote 11
TMX Pipeline emissions are as disclosed in TMX’s 2024 ESG report. LNG Canada Phase 1 emissions data is sourced from British Columbia’s Environmental Assessment Office (EPIC database), as detailed in the Green-house Gas Management Technical Data Report Table 6.0-1. Total oil and gas emissions calculation is shown in greater detail in Endnote 81 and methane emissions (venting) are shown in greater detail in Endnote 84 and 85. Emissions intensity measures emissions per unit of production, compared to total emissions.
Endnote 15
Record monthly EV sales, breaking the two million mark
Endnote 27
We track climate related funding and expenditures announced in the budgets of the federal government and the four largest provincial governments (British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario and Quebec). This includes announced plans towards climate- and environment-related initiatives focused on decarbonization, innovation, energy efficiency, fuel switching, clean and low-carbon technology manufacturing and deployment, skills, re-search and planning. It also includes transfer payments, program spending, tax expenditures, and select public financing. Total expenditure amounts are equally spread over timeframe announced in the budgets. For select items, expenditure amounts are distributed over the years as prescribed in the budgets.
Endnote 29
Based on data from BloombergNEF’s Energy Transition Investment and Asset Finance datasets, and increased planned projects capacity between late 2023 and now, by our count, in eastern provinces using power plant level data from S&P Capital IQ.
Endnote 30
Statistics Canada, Table 20-10-0085-01
Endnote 31
The total estimated value for heat pump adoption was calculated using quarterly statistics from The Heating, Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Institute of Canada (HRAI) on central heat pump and ductless split system shipments, and applying various proxies, such as heat pump to A/C only ratio based on previously reported ductless split system shipments.
Endnote 33
Internal RBC Social Values Survey.
Endnote 34
Refer to Climate Action Barometer methodology on estimation of emissions and emissions intensity. Absolute emissions are sourced from the Canadian federal government’s NIR that are prepared and submitted annually to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in accordance with the UN-FCCC Reporting Guidelines up to 2023 edition, and using the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories since 2024. Emissions intensity is calculated on a real GDP basis. Real GDP for 2025 is projected to grow by 1.2% according to RBC Economics. For 2024 and 2025, emissions are estimated as following: national emissions are a sum of economic sectors’ emissions as described in NIR. Sectoral emissions for oil and gas, electricity, and transportation are based on estimates as described in the methodology section of Sectoral Climate Action Indices. Emissions for 2024 for heavy industry, buildings and agriculture are taken from the latest independent Early Estimate of National Emissions published by Canadian Climate Institute in collaboration with Stiebert Consulting; for 2025, we apply the year-over-year change from 2024 for each sector derived from the latest (Feb 26, 2025 version) Greenhouse gas emissions projections published by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).
Endnote 36
Bloomberg NEF. Regenerative Agriculture Dashboard, 2025.
Endnote 37
Agriculture emissions intensity estimates are based on primary agriculture emissions and production out-puts, covering on-farm nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide, and methane emissions from both crop and animal production. Emissions intensity is measured by dividing primary agriculture emissions by national total on-farm outputs (i.e., crops and animals in tonnes). The data sources for the estimated emissions intensity are annual GHG emission estimates reported by Environment and Climate Change Canada in the National GHG Inventory Report and the National GHG Emission Projections, and annual agriculture production of crops and livestock are reported by Statistics Canada.
Endnote 38
National annual agriculture emissions are reported by Environment and Climate Change Canada in the National Inventory Report 1990-2023 (2025) and the 2024 and 2025 estimated emissions are reported by Environment and Climate Change Canada in the National GHG Emission Projections (2025).
Endnote 39
The GHG National Inventory Report does not account for all climate-smart practices in agriculture. The challenge is documented in the annual NIR report with plans to address it in the coming years through improved activity data and research that informs emission factors.
Endnote 44
World Business Council for Sustainable Development. Scope 3 land-based emissions.
Endnote 45
These benefits can take several years to have real on-farm impacts and are based on peer-reviewed research including Xing et al., 2025.
Endnote 46
Emissions decline is estimated based on the per-centage change in CO2e emissions between 2019 and 2025. Emissions figures are sourced from the Canadian Climate Institute’ Early Estimates of National Emissions and Environment and Climate Change Canada’s 2024 Reference Case emissions projections.

Emissions intensity estimates are defined as emissions (tonnes CO2 equivalent) per square meter of floor space. Floor space data for residential and commercial buildings was sourced from Natural Resources Canada’s Com-prehensive Energy Use Database. For years where NRCan estimates were unavailable, floor space was projected using a simple linear trend informed by recent historical growth, providing an indicative estimate aligned with current patterns in building activity. Emissions intensities were calculated separately for the residential and commercial sectors and rolled up into a single measure using a weighted average determined by floor space.
Endnote 47
Estimates of LEED-certified floor stock and mass timber use were obtained from the Canada Green Building Council Project Database and the State of Mass Timber in Canada Database respectively.
Endnote 50
The reduction in private capital inflow was based on in-house analysis of Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s Climate Tech Investment Database.
Endnote 52
Emissions reductions estimates are based on Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions projections under the 2024 Reference Case scenario.
Endnote 58
We arrived at an estimated six terawatt hours of coal-generated power through the following calculations: We sourced coal-based primary energy from Statistics Canada Table 25-10-0079-01, measured in joules up until June 30, 2025. For the second half of 2025, we took an average of the last three months of reported primary energy data (Q2 2025) and assumed the same level of energy use for H2/2025. Coal as a form of primary energy is then converted into implied electricity generation, based on historical conversion factors from 2019-2023 reported data under Table A13-1 as part of Canada’s National Inventory Report Statistical Annex 13 Electricity Intensity. The total generation for 2025 (estimate) is then compared to the total generation for 2024 as reported under Table 25-10-0079-01.

The emissions decline resulting from decreased coal-powered electricity generation is taken from historical emissions factors and implied coal-based generation as reported under Table A13-1 as part of Statistical Annex 13 Electricity Intensity.
Endnote 60
Natural gas powered electricity generation is estimated based on historical monthly reported data of natural gas based primary energy through Statistics Canada Table 25-10-0079-01, measured in Joules up until June 30, 2025. For the second half of 2025, we took the trailing 12-month average of reported primary energy data as of June 30, 2025 and compared that percentage change relative to the trailing 12-month average of reported primary energy data as of June 30, 2024. That implied per-centage increase was then applied to the total primary energy usage in 2024 to predict our value in 2025. The percentage share of total primary energy from natural gas usage within electric utilities listed under Electricity as an economic sector within the NIR and the share not attributed to electricity, i.e., used within cogeneration within the oil and gas sector (i.e., the utilities vs cogen split within reported electricity generation by class of producer) is predicted based on historical monthly generation under Statistics Canada Table 25-10-0015-01 classified either as electric utilities and also historically based on thermal electric power generation split be-tween coal and natural gas based on historical data as denoted in Statistics Canada Table 25-10-0084-01.

The emissions impact from the estimated increase in natural gas powered generation is based on historical conversion factors from 2019-2023 reported data under Table A13-1 as part of Statistical Annex 13 Electricity Intensity.

Total sector emissions within electricity in 2025 are the summation of the estimated decline in emissions from coal-powered electricity generation and the increase in natural gas-powered electricity generation as detailed above. These values are then compared relative to 2005 and 2019 as disclosed under Table A13-1 as part of Statistical Annex 13 Electricity Intensity.
Endnote 61
Our estimate of $1 trillion takes into account multiple public assessments of long-term electricity system needs. The 2023 Public Policy Forum report—Project of the Century: A Blueprint for Growing Canada’s Clean Electricity Supply – and Fast—includes estimates such as the Conference Board of Canada’s The Cost of a Cleaner Future: Examining the Economic Impacts of Reducing GHG Emissions (~$1.7 trillion), the University of Montreal’s 2021 Canada Energy Outlook (~$1.1 trillion), and provincial estimates from Ontario ($375-425 billion), Quebec ($185 billion to 2035, with higher cumulative needs through 2045), and Alberta (~$44-52 billion in 2041). Together, these provincial figures approach ~$847 billion before accounting for British Columbia and other provinces, supporting the use of a $1-trillion directional estimate.
Endnote 62
Emissions intensity for the electricity sector is calculated as the sector’s total GHG emissions divided by the total electricity generation in any given year. Emissions for 2024 were taken from the Canadian Climate Institute’s Early Estimate of National Emissions. For 2025, we estimated emissions based on our forecasted change in electricity generation from both coal and natural gas. For information on how we forecasted the changes in electricity generation from coal and natural gas, refer to the Methodology section: Sectoral Climate Action Indices, Section D. Emissions - Electricity.
Endnote 67
We calculated emissions decline since 2019 as a per-centage change between 2019 emissions (in kilotonnes CO2 equivalent) and 2024 emissions (in kilotonnes CO2 equivalent) as published in the Canadian Climate Institute’s Early Estimate of National Emissions.
Endnote 70
70We define emissions intensity in terms of kilotonnes of emissions (CO2e) per kilotonne of industrial production across the following heavy industrial sub-sectors as stated in Canada’s National Inventory Report: mining, smelting and refining (non-ferrous metals), pulp and paper, iron and steel, cement, and chemicals and fertilizers. Annual production figures (up to the year 2023) per sub-sector were sourced from the Canadian Energy and Emissions Data Centre, at Simon Fraser University, which are based on proprietary estimates as well as databases including World Steel and the Global Cement and Concrete Association. Annual emissions figures are sourced from the Canadian Climate Institute’s Early Estimates of National Emissions. Emissions intensities per heavy industrial sub-sector were rolled up into a composite estimate using a weighted average, with weights corresponding to each sub-sector’s contributions to Canada’s heavy industry emissions across all stated sub-sectors.
Endnote 71
The estimate of venture capital deployed is based on in-house analysis of data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s Climate Tech Investment Database and considers companies whose products could directly contribute to emissions reductions in heavy industrial sub-sectors across mining, smelting and refining (non-ferrous metals), pulp and paper, iron and steel, cement, and chemicals and fertilizers.
Endnote 72
72The $79 million year-to-date estimate is based on Bloomberg New Energy Finance Climate-Tech Investment Database. An example of government investment: Government of Canada investing in Foran Mining Corporation’s critical minerals production in Saskatchewan.
Endnote 80
The emissions estimate builds on the federal government’s National Inventory Report for 2023. We then analyzed monthly production data across the oilsands, conventional liquids and natural gas for 2024 and 2025 to estimate the sector’s emissions that are aligned with the recent sector trend of decarbonization since 2019 (the start of our tracking period for our sectoral indices). Our estimate of increased emissions aligns with the Canadian Climate Institute’s Early Estimates of National Emissions. For 2025, we used RBC Capital Markets’ fundamental supply and demand model out to 2030 for both Canadian oil and gas production.
Endnote 81
Trans Mountain Pipeline emissions data for 2024 is taken from the company’s 2024 ESG report. For 2025, we estimated TMX’s emissions based on annualization of reported volumes as disclosed by the Canada Energy Regulator.
Endnote 82
For LNG Canada, we sourced emissions data from the operator’s submission to British Columbia’s Environmental Assessment Office (EPIC database). Estimated emissions from LNG Canada Phases 1 and 2 are detailed in its Greenhouse Gas Management Technical Data Report Table 6.0-1. We adjusted the disclosed emissions to reflect both the start date, June 30, 2025, and quoted capacity of 14 megatonnes in Phase 1.
Endnote 83
We used Canada Energy Regulator data for marketable produced gas volumes for 2023. For 2024 and 2025, we used the same datasets as above along with RBC Capital Markets’ fundamental supply and demand model out to 2030 for Canadian oil and gas production. For vented gas and flared gas (Bullet 2), we used data from Petrinex’s Conventional Volumetric Data Download, which provides a number of measured metrics, by month, by well for Alberta and Saskatchewan, with most recent data complete to August 2025, and also used facility data from the B.C. Energy Regulator. We then used the official National Inventory Report provincial breakdown of vented and flared emissions across the oil and gas industry for historical years to calibrate gas volumes to emissions (2021-2023). Because Alberta reports its basin wide flared and venting data, we used the actual reported flaring and venting gas volumes from AER ST60b and overlaid that with the official NIR emissions from flared and vented gas in Alberta to calculate an implied emissions factor for both venting and flared gas volumes. We then used the volumes of gas flared and reported (Petrinex for Alberta and Saskatchewan, BC Energy Regulator for British Columbia) as the driver for our 2024 and 2025 predicted values. This analysis was done only for Alberta, Saskatchewan and British Columbia, which we view as representative of the entire industry as these three provinces account for 92% of total flared and 97% of vented emissions across Canada’s oil and gas sector. 84Environment and Climate Change Canada released an update on its Path Forward for Oil and Gas Sector Meth-ane Mitigation on September 2023.
Endnote 95
In 2024 the U.S. produced 104 bcf/d of dry gas and Canada produced 18 bcf/d of dry gas.
Endnote 97
EV refer to battery and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
Endnote 98
S&P Global Mobility, Canadian EV Insights, Q4 2024
Endnote 99
Statistics Canada, Table 20-10-0085-01, New motor vehicle sales, monthly.
Endnote 100
BloombergNEF, Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook 2025 – Data
Endnote 101
Emissions are based on our estimate from calculations for Sectoral Climate Action indices as specified in the methodology. Historical emissions data is source from National Inventory report, and for years 2024 and 2025 are estimates based on proxies using total vehicle-kilometres and estimated ICE vehicle fleet size. Emissions intensity is defined as total sectoral emissions per vehicle-kilometre. We sourced vehicle-kilometre from IBIS World’s projections dated Oct 2024.
Endnote 105
Statistics Canada, Table 20-10-0085-01, New motor vehicle sales, monthly; We divided total sales volume in monetary units by total vehicle sales count to derive average sales prices.
Endnote 106
Natural Resources Canada, Updated forecasts of vehicle charging needs, grid impacts and costs for all vehicle segments, prepared by Dunsky Energy + Climate Advisors. The ratio for charging infrastructure needs for light duty vehicles is around 20-21 EVs/public charging port across two scenarios of high and low home charging access. We estimate current ratio based on total and new EV registrations data from Statistics Canada (Tables 23-10-0308-01 and 20-10-0025-01) up to second half of 2025, and total public charging ports count retrieved in July of 2025 from NRCAN’s Electric Charging and Alter-native Fuelling Stations Locator to be 21 EVs per public charging port.
Endnote 108
PowerCo Equity Story

Click here to view our methodology

Mass timber can be grown sustainably, and it is very machinable