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Electricity

down arrow24%
drop in sector
emissions since 2019
down arrow27%
drop in sector
emissions intensity since 2019
Policy
Capital
Action
Emissions

Electricity Climate Action Index | 2019 = base year

  • After an initial wave of progress, our electricity index has stalled and declined in 2025. Lingering uncertainty around Alberta’s renewable energy moratorium and subsequent restrictions led to the cancellation of 11 gigawatts of capacity under development—roughly half of the province’s existing generative capacity.57

  • Canada will likely remove over six terawatt hours of coal-generated power from its grid this year.58 That’s the equivalent of 25% of the City of Toronto’s annual electricity use.59 We estimate that the removal of coal will contribute to sector emissions likely falling 1% in 2025, with the decline partly offset by natural gas-powered generation rising over 15% in the year.60 Since 2019, we estimate that total sector emissions have fallen 24%, and are down 60% since 2005, surpassing Canada’s Paris Agreement targets.

  • Canada faces the twin challenge of at least doubling and decarbonizing power capacity by 2050. Plans for expanded electricity generation, powered by nuclear, hydroelectric and abated natural gas in addition to solar and wind, would address Canada’s long-term challenge to raise capacity while managing emissions. The capital cost for such an expansion could be over $1 trillion, according to estimates.61

  • Total power generation is up 7% year-to-date relative to 2024, according to our estimates.62 The surge is driven by higher hydroelectric power generation, after falling in 2024 to among the lowest levels in two decades due to hot and dry conditions decreasing reservoir levels. Other low-emission power (nuclear, solar and wind) is also up on the year. However, rising gas use and no meaningful conversions of plants from coal-to-gas will likely keep emission declines muted this year.

  • Generous fiscal subsidies such as ITCs are already in place. However, the major projects initiative under Bill C-5: An Act to enact the Free Trade and Labour Mobility in Canada Act and the Building Canada Act, which aims to streamline permitting and boost inter-provincial collaboration, could advance grid resilience and expansion.

CASE STUDY

Build or buy?

The Challenge

Demand for electricity is expected to double in Canada by 205063 driven primarily by the increased electrification needed for vehicles, data centres and manufacturing.64 Electricity markets will need a slew of technologies from power producers to keep up.

The Idea

The 250-megawatt Oneida Energy Storage in Haldimand County, Ont. is the largest battery energy storage facility of its kind in operation in Canada. The facility is connected to the grid and can charge in periods of low demand or when excess energy is being generated, and then discharge when demand is high or when renewables aren’t available. At capacity, the 10-acre facility can store enough electricity to power a city the size of Oshawa, population 175,000, for four hours.65

The project came online in April 2025 and is a partnership between Northland Power, NRStor Inc., Aecon Concessions, Six Nations of the Grand River Development Corporation and the Mississaugas of the Credit First Nation.

The facility captures electricity—primarily from nuclear, hydro, wind, and solar sources—when it’s readily and cheaply available, which can offer an alternative power source to using fossil fuel-fired power generation during peak demand.

The Obstacles

Ultimately, the project team faced a classic strategic decision most companies encounter at some point during their evolution. Build or buy?

Option 1: Purchase a highly integrated storage solution from a third-party vendor.

Option 2: Purchase components and integrate them into a storage solution.

The selection often comes down to a few key factors, cost, competency, customization, time to market and the value of the solution as a differentiator for the business.

The Oneida Energy Storage project team has developed its gameplan over the past few years in an ever-evolving supply-chain environment. Understanding the landscape—and the options—was the first priority. When it came time to select a battery supplier, a decision that accounts for about 70% of the total project cost, the partners opted for a highly integrated solution and purchased 278 lithium-ion batteries (each weighing 84,000 pounds) from Tesla, which is a dominant player in battery energy storage systems.66

While the buy option was more costly, at least upfront, it provided the project partners with a well-known player in the space whose core competency is battery system manufacturing, integration and service. Plus, a 20-year guarantee on the tech. This, said Nick Zsofcsin, the Head of Energy Storage at Northland Power, helped de-risk the project for the partners.

The Insight

Zsofcsin recalls how from the moment the system came online, it was impossible to ignore how quickly it responded to pricing signals. “The energy storage was almost turning on too fast,” he said. “The electricity system operator had never seen anything like this before.”

Traditionally, a lot of flexible or more active electricity generation comes from hydro or natural gas, which is more mechanical, and takes time to ramp up, involving higher costs and energy inefficiencies. Energy storage facilities, built on electronic inverters, turn on and off in milliseconds. Quicker, said Zsofcsin, than any revenue stream in the system will value and recognize. “This speed, this ability to respond, is undervalued,” he said. “And something that we need to create the right price signals and the right markets to be able to capitalize on.”

Endnote 2
We track climate related funding and expenditures announced in the budgets of the federal government and the four largest provincial governments (British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario and Quebec). This includes announced plans towards climate- and environment-related initiatives focused on decarbonization, innovation, energy efficiency, fuel switching, clean and low-carbon technology manufacturing and deployment, skills, re-search and planning. It also includes transfer payments, program spending, tax expenditures, and select public financing. Total expenditure amounts are equally spread over timeframe announced in the budgets. For select items, expenditure amounts are distributed over the years as prescribed in the budgets.
Endnote 3
Refer to endnote 2.
Endnote 5
Emissions intensity for the electricity sector is calculated as the sector's total GHG emissions divided by the total electricity generation in any given year. Emissions for 2024 were taken from the Canadian Climate Institute's Early Estimate of National Emissions. For 2025, we estimated emissions based on our forecasted change in electricity generation from both coal and natural gas. For information on how we forecasted the changes in electricity generation from coal and natural gas, refer to the Methodology section: Sectoral Climate Action Indices, Section D. Emissions - Electricity.
Endnote 6
For buildings, emissions intensity estimates are defined as emissions (tonnes CO2 equivalent) per square meter of floor space. Emissions data was sourced from the Canadian Climate Institute’s Early Estimates of National Emissions and Environment and Climate Change Canada’s 2024 Reference Case emissions projections. Floor space data for residential and commercial buildings was sourced from Natural Resources Canada’s Comprehensive Energy Use Database. For years where NRCan estimates were unavailable, floor space was projected using a simple linear trend informed by recent historical growth, providing an indicative estimate aligned with current patterns in building activity. Emissions intensities were calculated separately for the residential and commercial sectors and rolled up into a single measure using a weighted average determined by floor space.
Endnote 8
Total oil and gas production in 2025 is derived from Canada Energy Regulator data on the production of crude oil and equivalent and marketable produced gas volumes, annualized and adjusted for seasonality and aligned with RBC Capital Markets’ fundamental supply and demand model for Canadian oil and gas production. Total oil and gas emissions are summed up from estimated emissions as noted in detail in Endnotes 81-85.
Endnote 8
Agriculture emissions intensity estimates are based on primary agriculture emissions and production out-puts, covering on-farm nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide, and methane emissions from both crop and animal production. Emissions intensity is measured by dividing primary agriculture emissions by national total on-farm outputs (i.e., crops and animals in tonnes). The data sources for the estimated emissions intensity are annual GHG emission estimates reported by Environment and Climate Change Canada in the National GHG Inventory Report and the National GHG Emission Projections, and annual agriculture production of crops and livestock are reported by Statistics Canada.
Endnote 9
Transportation sector emissions consist of five major categories: (1) cars, light trucks and motorcycles, (2) bus, rail and aviation, (3) heavy-duty trucks, rail, (4) aviation and marine, and (5) other: recreational, commercial and residential. Cars, light trucks and motorcycles, and heavy-duty trucks and rail make up about 80% of the sector emissions, which we attempt to estimate based on directional trends. For other categories we apply 10-year average for 2024 and 2025. We use data from IBIS World that provide total vehicle-kilometres driven (version published in Oct 2024), which represents “the total annual sum of kilometres driven by all motor vehicles over the calendar year.” Further, we use 2009 Canadian Vehicle Survey Summary Report published by Natural Resources Canada, which breaks down kilometres driven by vehicle type–of which around 90% are travelled by light vehicles (gross vehicle weight less than 4.5 tonnes) and ~10% by medium and heavy trucks (gross vehicle weight between 4.5 and 15 t, and gross vehicle weight of 15 t or more). Using ICE vehicle fleet sizes for passenger and medium and heavy commercial vehicles, we derived historical emissions intensity per kilometre driven. Fleet size for passenger vehicles is sourced from Statistics Canada’s Table 23-10-0308-01, and commercial vehicle fleet size is sourced from BloombergNEF’s Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook 2025 dataset published in June 2025. Using the average of the derived ratio between 2021-2023, we estimate emissions for both cars, light trucks and motorcycles, and heavy-duty trucks, rail categories for 2024 and 2025. Sectoral emissions intensity is derived by ratio of total sectoral emissions and total vehicle-kilometres driven.
Endnote 10
For heavy industry, we define emissions intensity in terms of kilotonnes of emissions (CO2e) per kilotonne of industrial production across the following heavy industrial sub-sectors as stated in Canada’s National Inventory Report: mining, smelting and refining (non-ferrous metals), pulp and paper, iron and steel, cement, and chemicals and fertilizers. Annual production figures (up to 2023) per sub-sector were sourced from the Canadian Energy and Emissions Data Centre, at Simon Fraser University, which are based on proprietary estimates as well as databases including World Steel and the Global Cement and Concrete Association. Annual emissions figures are sourced from the Canadian Climate Institute’s Early Estimates of National Emissions. Emissions intensities per heavy industrial sub-sector were rolled up into a composite estimate using a weighted average, with weights corresponding to each sub-sector’s contributions to Canada’s heavy industry emissions across all stated sub-sectors.
Endnote 11
TMX Pipeline emissions are as disclosed in TMX’s 2024 ESG report. LNG Canada Phase 1 emissions data is sourced from British Columbia’s Environmental Assessment Office (EPIC database), as detailed in the Green-house Gas Management Technical Data Report Table 6.0-1. Total oil and gas emissions calculation is shown in greater detail in Endnote 81 and methane emissions (venting) are shown in greater detail in Endnote 84 and 85. Emissions intensity measures emissions per unit of production, compared to total emissions.
Endnote 15
Record monthly EV sales, breaking the two million mark
Endnote 27
We track climate related funding and expenditures announced in the budgets of the federal government and the four largest provincial governments (British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario and Quebec). This includes announced plans towards climate- and environment-related initiatives focused on decarbonization, innovation, energy efficiency, fuel switching, clean and low-carbon technology manufacturing and deployment, skills, re-search and planning. It also includes transfer payments, program spending, tax expenditures, and select public financing. Total expenditure amounts are equally spread over timeframe announced in the budgets. For select items, expenditure amounts are distributed over the years as prescribed in the budgets.
Endnote 29
Based on data from BloombergNEF’s Energy Transition Investment and Asset Finance datasets, and increased planned projects capacity between late 2023 and now, by our count, in eastern provinces using power plant level data from S&P Capital IQ.
Endnote 30
Statistics Canada, Table 20-10-0085-01
Endnote 31
The total estimated value for heat pump adoption was calculated using quarterly statistics from The Heating, Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Institute of Canada (HRAI) on central heat pump and ductless split system shipments, and applying various proxies, such as heat pump to A/C only ratio based on previously reported ductless split system shipments.
Endnote 33
Internal RBC Social Values Survey.
Endnote 34
Refer to Climate Action Barometer methodology on estimation of emissions and emissions intensity. Absolute emissions are sourced from the Canadian federal government’s NIR that are prepared and submitted annually to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in accordance with the UN-FCCC Reporting Guidelines up to 2023 edition, and using the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories since 2024. Emissions intensity is calculated on a real GDP basis. Real GDP for 2025 is projected to grow by 1.2% according to RBC Economics. For 2024 and 2025, emissions are estimated as following: national emissions are a sum of economic sectors’ emissions as described in NIR. Sectoral emissions for oil and gas, electricity, and transportation are based on estimates as described in the methodology section of Sectoral Climate Action Indices. Emissions for 2024 for heavy industry, buildings and agriculture are taken from the latest independent Early Estimate of National Emissions published by Canadian Climate Institute in collaboration with Stiebert Consulting; for 2025, we apply the year-over-year change from 2024 for each sector derived from the latest (Feb 26, 2025 version) Greenhouse gas emissions projections published by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).
Endnote 36
Bloomberg NEF. Regenerative Agriculture Dashboard, 2025.
Endnote 37
Agriculture emissions intensity estimates are based on primary agriculture emissions and production out-puts, covering on-farm nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide, and methane emissions from both crop and animal production. Emissions intensity is measured by dividing primary agriculture emissions by national total on-farm outputs (i.e., crops and animals in tonnes). The data sources for the estimated emissions intensity are annual GHG emission estimates reported by Environment and Climate Change Canada in the National GHG Inventory Report and the National GHG Emission Projections, and annual agriculture production of crops and livestock are reported by Statistics Canada.
Endnote 38
National annual agriculture emissions are reported by Environment and Climate Change Canada in the National Inventory Report 1990-2023 (2025) and the 2024 and 2025 estimated emissions are reported by Environment and Climate Change Canada in the National GHG Emission Projections (2025).
Endnote 39
The GHG National Inventory Report does not account for all climate-smart practices in agriculture. The challenge is documented in the annual NIR report with plans to address it in the coming years through improved activity data and research that informs emission factors.
Endnote 44
World Business Council for Sustainable Development. Scope 3 land-based emissions.
Endnote 45
These benefits can take several years to have real on-farm impacts and are based on peer-reviewed research including Xing et al., 2025.
Endnote 46
Emissions decline is estimated based on the per-centage change in CO2e emissions between 2019 and 2025. Emissions figures are sourced from the Canadian Climate Institute’ Early Estimates of National Emissions and Environment and Climate Change Canada’s 2024 Reference Case emissions projections.

Emissions intensity estimates are defined as emissions (tonnes CO2 equivalent) per square meter of floor space. Floor space data for residential and commercial buildings was sourced from Natural Resources Canada’s Com-prehensive Energy Use Database. For years where NRCan estimates were unavailable, floor space was projected using a simple linear trend informed by recent historical growth, providing an indicative estimate aligned with current patterns in building activity. Emissions intensities were calculated separately for the residential and commercial sectors and rolled up into a single measure using a weighted average determined by floor space.
Endnote 47
Estimates of LEED-certified floor stock and mass timber use were obtained from the Canada Green Building Council Project Database and the State of Mass Timber in Canada Database respectively.
Endnote 50
The reduction in private capital inflow was based on in-house analysis of Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s Climate Tech Investment Database.
Endnote 52
Emissions reductions estimates are based on Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions projections under the 2024 Reference Case scenario.
Endnote 58
We arrived at an estimated six terawatt hours of coal-generated power through the following calculations: We sourced coal-based primary energy from Statistics Canada Table 25-10-0079-01, measured in joules up until June 30, 2025. For the second half of 2025, we took an average of the last three months of reported primary energy data (Q2 2025) and assumed the same level of energy use for H2/2025. Coal as a form of primary energy is then converted into implied electricity generation, based on historical conversion factors from 2019-2023 reported data under Table A13-1 as part of Canada’s National Inventory Report Statistical Annex 13 Electricity Intensity. The total generation for 2025 (estimate) is then compared to the total generation for 2024 as reported under Table 25-10-0079-01.

The emissions decline resulting from decreased coal-powered electricity generation is taken from historical emissions factors and implied coal-based generation as reported under Table A13-1 as part of Statistical Annex 13 Electricity Intensity.
Endnote 60
Natural gas powered electricity generation is estimated based on historical monthly reported data of natural gas based primary energy through Statistics Canada Table 25-10-0079-01, measured in Joules up until June 30, 2025. For the second half of 2025, we took the trailing 12-month average of reported primary energy data as of June 30, 2025 and compared that percentage change relative to the trailing 12-month average of reported primary energy data as of June 30, 2024. That implied per-centage increase was then applied to the total primary energy usage in 2024 to predict our value in 2025. The percentage share of total primary energy from natural gas usage within electric utilities listed under Electricity as an economic sector within the NIR and the share not attributed to electricity, i.e., used within cogeneration within the oil and gas sector (i.e., the utilities vs cogen split within reported electricity generation by class of producer) is predicted based on historical monthly generation under Statistics Canada Table 25-10-0015-01 classified either as electric utilities and also historically based on thermal electric power generation split be-tween coal and natural gas based on historical data as denoted in Statistics Canada Table 25-10-0084-01.

The emissions impact from the estimated increase in natural gas powered generation is based on historical conversion factors from 2019-2023 reported data under Table A13-1 as part of Statistical Annex 13 Electricity Intensity.

Total sector emissions within electricity in 2025 are the summation of the estimated decline in emissions from coal-powered electricity generation and the increase in natural gas-powered electricity generation as detailed above. These values are then compared relative to 2005 and 2019 as disclosed under Table A13-1 as part of Statistical Annex 13 Electricity Intensity.
Endnote 61
Our estimate of $1 trillion takes into account multiple public assessments of long-term electricity system needs. The 2023 Public Policy Forum report—Project of the Century: A Blueprint for Growing Canada’s Clean Electricity Supply – and Fast—includes estimates such as the Conference Board of Canada’s The Cost of a Cleaner Future: Examining the Economic Impacts of Reducing GHG Emissions (~$1.7 trillion), the University of Montreal’s 2021 Canada Energy Outlook (~$1.1 trillion), and provincial estimates from Ontario ($375-425 billion), Quebec ($185 billion to 2035, with higher cumulative needs through 2045), and Alberta (~$44-52 billion in 2041). Together, these provincial figures approach ~$847 billion before accounting for British Columbia and other provinces, supporting the use of a $1-trillion directional estimate.
Endnote 62
Emissions intensity for the electricity sector is calculated as the sector’s total GHG emissions divided by the total electricity generation in any given year. Emissions for 2024 were taken from the Canadian Climate Institute’s Early Estimate of National Emissions. For 2025, we estimated emissions based on our forecasted change in electricity generation from both coal and natural gas. For information on how we forecasted the changes in electricity generation from coal and natural gas, refer to the Methodology section: Sectoral Climate Action Indices, Section D. Emissions - Electricity.
Endnote 67
We calculated emissions decline since 2019 as a per-centage change between 2019 emissions (in kilotonnes CO2 equivalent) and 2024 emissions (in kilotonnes CO2 equivalent) as published in the Canadian Climate Institute’s Early Estimate of National Emissions.
Endnote 70
70We define emissions intensity in terms of kilotonnes of emissions (CO2e) per kilotonne of industrial production across the following heavy industrial sub-sectors as stated in Canada’s National Inventory Report: mining, smelting and refining (non-ferrous metals), pulp and paper, iron and steel, cement, and chemicals and fertilizers. Annual production figures (up to the year 2023) per sub-sector were sourced from the Canadian Energy and Emissions Data Centre, at Simon Fraser University, which are based on proprietary estimates as well as databases including World Steel and the Global Cement and Concrete Association. Annual emissions figures are sourced from the Canadian Climate Institute’s Early Estimates of National Emissions. Emissions intensities per heavy industrial sub-sector were rolled up into a composite estimate using a weighted average, with weights corresponding to each sub-sector’s contributions to Canada’s heavy industry emissions across all stated sub-sectors.
Endnote 71
The estimate of venture capital deployed is based on in-house analysis of data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s Climate Tech Investment Database and considers companies whose products could directly contribute to emissions reductions in heavy industrial sub-sectors across mining, smelting and refining (non-ferrous metals), pulp and paper, iron and steel, cement, and chemicals and fertilizers.
Endnote 72
72The $79 million year-to-date estimate is based on Bloomberg New Energy Finance Climate-Tech Investment Database. An example of government investment: Government of Canada investing in Foran Mining Corporation’s critical minerals production in Saskatchewan.
Endnote 80
The emissions estimate builds on the federal government’s National Inventory Report for 2023. We then analyzed monthly production data across the oilsands, conventional liquids and natural gas for 2024 and 2025 to estimate the sector’s emissions that are aligned with the recent sector trend of decarbonization since 2019 (the start of our tracking period for our sectoral indices). Our estimate of increased emissions aligns with the Canadian Climate Institute’s Early Estimates of National Emissions. For 2025, we used RBC Capital Markets’ fundamental supply and demand model out to 2030 for both Canadian oil and gas production.
Endnote 81
Trans Mountain Pipeline emissions data for 2024 is taken from the company’s 2024 ESG report. For 2025, we estimated TMX’s emissions based on annualization of reported volumes as disclosed by the Canada Energy Regulator.
Endnote 82
For LNG Canada, we sourced emissions data from the operator’s submission to British Columbia’s Environmental Assessment Office (EPIC database). Estimated emissions from LNG Canada Phases 1 and 2 are detailed in its Greenhouse Gas Management Technical Data Report Table 6.0-1. We adjusted the disclosed emissions to reflect both the start date, June 30, 2025, and quoted capacity of 14 megatonnes in Phase 1.
Endnote 83
We used Canada Energy Regulator data for marketable produced gas volumes for 2023. For 2024 and 2025, we used the same datasets as above along with RBC Capital Markets’ fundamental supply and demand model out to 2030 for Canadian oil and gas production. For vented gas and flared gas (Bullet 2), we used data from Petrinex’s Conventional Volumetric Data Download, which provides a number of measured metrics, by month, by well for Alberta and Saskatchewan, with most recent data complete to August 2025, and also used facility data from the B.C. Energy Regulator. We then used the official National Inventory Report provincial breakdown of vented and flared emissions across the oil and gas industry for historical years to calibrate gas volumes to emissions (2021-2023). Because Alberta reports its basin wide flared and venting data, we used the actual reported flaring and venting gas volumes from AER ST60b and overlaid that with the official NIR emissions from flared and vented gas in Alberta to calculate an implied emissions factor for both venting and flared gas volumes. We then used the volumes of gas flared and reported (Petrinex for Alberta and Saskatchewan, BC Energy Regulator for British Columbia) as the driver for our 2024 and 2025 predicted values. This analysis was done only for Alberta, Saskatchewan and British Columbia, which we view as representative of the entire industry as these three provinces account for 92% of total flared and 97% of vented emissions across Canada’s oil and gas sector. 84Environment and Climate Change Canada released an update on its Path Forward for Oil and Gas Sector Meth-ane Mitigation on September 2023.
Endnote 95
In 2024 the U.S. produced 104 bcf/d of dry gas and Canada produced 18 bcf/d of dry gas.
Endnote 97
EV refer to battery and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
Endnote 98
S&P Global Mobility, Canadian EV Insights, Q4 2024
Endnote 99
Statistics Canada, Table 20-10-0085-01, New motor vehicle sales, monthly.
Endnote 100
BloombergNEF, Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook 2025 – Data
Endnote 101
Emissions are based on our estimate from calculations for Sectoral Climate Action indices as specified in the methodology. Historical emissions data is source from National Inventory report, and for years 2024 and 2025 are estimates based on proxies using total vehicle-kilometres and estimated ICE vehicle fleet size. Emissions intensity is defined as total sectoral emissions per vehicle-kilometre. We sourced vehicle-kilometre from IBIS World’s projections dated Oct 2024.
Endnote 105
Statistics Canada, Table 20-10-0085-01, New motor vehicle sales, monthly; We divided total sales volume in monetary units by total vehicle sales count to derive average sales prices.
Endnote 106
Natural Resources Canada, Updated forecasts of vehicle charging needs, grid impacts and costs for all vehicle segments, prepared by Dunsky Energy + Climate Advisors. The ratio for charging infrastructure needs for light duty vehicles is around 20-21 EVs/public charging port across two scenarios of high and low home charging access. We estimate current ratio based on total and new EV registrations data from Statistics Canada (Tables 23-10-0308-01 and 20-10-0025-01) up to second half of 2025, and total public charging ports count retrieved in July of 2025 from NRCAN’s Electric Charging and Alter-native Fuelling Stations Locator to be 21 EVs per public charging port.
Endnote 108
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The speed and the ability to respond is undervalued