Transportation
since 2019
intensity since
2019
High prices and incentive cuts stall EV sales
Transportation Climate Action Index | 2019 = base year
Case Study- Transportation
How to build an EV battery supply chain
The Challenge
Cars and vans generated roughly 10% of global emissions, making the decarbonization of transport a critical puzzle to solve.107 Volkswagen, Europe’s largest automaker, has bet heavily on battery electric vehicles (BEVs), expecting global BEV sales to grow by 30% annually through the end of the decade.108 That ambition requires more than cars—it requires batteries at scale.
Through its subsidiary PowerCo., Volkswagen began building a network of battery cell gigafactories in Germany and Spain, with plans for a third and largest plant in North America. The German car conglomerate, which has 112 production facilities across 27 countries, had to make a choice on its new location for its electric vehicle battery cell gigafactory as part of its ambition to become a global battery champion.109
The U.S., with its formidable EV market and incentives, was a promising candidate. Instead, Volkswagen chose the southwestern Ontario city of St. Thomas—population 42,000.
The Idea
The deciding factor was not simply incentives, but climate alignment. Ontario runs on one of the world’s lowest-emitting power grids, dominated by hydro and nuclear (natural gas accounts for around 8%).110 For a facility that will consume enormous amounts of electricity, low-carbon energy was not a minor consideration—PowerCo. tells us it was essential to support Volkswagen’s broader decarbonization commitments. The province has pledged to generate 99% of its electricity zero-emission, even as it raises capacity by 75% over the next 25 years.111
Several factors played a role in PowerCo.’s big Canadian move. The new location’s proximity to the Great Lakes Automotive Corridor provides it a hub where skills, knowledge and technology transfers smoothly across an established supply chain, according to PowerCo.
While Canadian government support was also massive, the U.S. was offering equivalent incentives. The federal government’s financial commitment to Volkswagen includes up to $12.8 billion in production support, a $700 million contribution through the Strategic Innovation Fund (SIF) for the construction of the plant, and an estimated $2.8 billion in tax adjustments, according to the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO). That was “needed to achieve an after-tax equivalency to support offered under the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA),” the PBO noted.112 That may have been fortuitous for Volkswagen as Washington has gutted the IRA.
Volkswagen is investing up to $7 billion through PowerCo by 2030 to build a 370-acre battery cell factory in St. Thomas, roughly 210 soccer fields, part of a larger 1,500-acre industrial campus.113
The project, set for initial production in 2027, would serve not only Canada but the U.S. and Europe. PowerCo. now boasts nearly 200 employees with plans to employ thousands more. It’s also leveraging lessons from its gigafactories in Salzgitter, Germany, and Valencia, Spain, and is combining in-house training with partnerships with Canadian universities and government-supported training centres.114
Early contracts for steel and foundation work are with Canadian suppliers, underscoring PowerCo.’s plan to root its operations in local systems and find ways to navigate U.S. trade barriers and tariffs.115
Late last year, Power Co. and Volkswagen signed an offtake commitment with Montreal-based Patriot Battery Metals Inc. to buy 100,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate—a lithium raw material—annually over a 10-year period from Patriot’s Shaakichiuwaanaan Project in Quebec. Volkswagen also invested US$48 million for a 9.9% stake in Patriot.116
The Obstacles
Several links in the chain, from critical minerals to component suppliers, are in the early stages and must be built or scaled up, said PowerCo. executive Meredith Gibbons.
The evolving pace of EV adoption and regulatory frameworks, including the pause for review of Canada’s EV mandate, introduces some uncertainty for the industry. But PowerCo. is betting that, in the long-term, EVs will overtake combustion vehicles.
There are other challenges facing the wider EV industry that could impact its medium-term growth. Several automakers have pulled back their plans for EVs, while the rollback of subsidies in the U.S. and Canada could impact consumer uptake of EVs in the future. U.S. tariffs on the Canadian auto industry could also lead to structural shifts in the domestic industry.
The Insight
Gibbons likened the process to Silicon Valley startups: technology is iterative, but manufacturing is traditionally “rinse and repeat.” Combining rapid innovation with heavy industrial scale is a unique challenge. It demands flexibility in design, openness to “micro-pivots,” and resilience in managing setbacks without deviating from long-term plans
Emissions intensity estimates are defined as emissions (tonnes CO2 equivalent) per square meter of floor space. Floor space data for residential and commercial buildings was sourced from Natural Resources Canada’s Com-prehensive Energy Use Database. For years where NRCan estimates were unavailable, floor space was projected using a simple linear trend informed by recent historical growth, providing an indicative estimate aligned with current patterns in building activity. Emissions intensities were calculated separately for the residential and commercial sectors and rolled up into a single measure using a weighted average determined by floor space.
The emissions decline resulting from decreased coal-powered electricity generation is taken from historical emissions factors and implied coal-based generation as reported under Table A13-1 as part of Statistical Annex 13 Electricity Intensity.
The emissions impact from the estimated increase in natural gas powered generation is based on historical conversion factors from 2019-2023 reported data under Table A13-1 as part of Statistical Annex 13 Electricity Intensity.
Total sector emissions within electricity in 2025 are the summation of the estimated decline in emissions from coal-powered electricity generation and the increase in natural gas-powered electricity generation as detailed above. These values are then compared relative to 2005 and 2019 as disclosed under Table A13-1 as part of Statistical Annex 13 Electricity Intensity.
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While Canadian government support was massive, the U.S. was offering equivalent incentives