Provincial Outlook and Fiscal Analysis

Ontario’s 2025 budget showed a significant deterioration in the deficit compared to projections from a year ago. The deficit for 2025-26 is now forecast to reach $14.6 billion—$10 billion deeper than forecast in Budget 2024. Promises to balance the budget have also been pushed out another year to 2027-28 with notable downside risk to the […]

Canada is not the only country facing shifting trade winds, and with pervasive uncertainty weighing on businesses, the public sector will need to play a role in making the economy more resilient.

P.E.I. projects the largest deficit in province’s history at $184 million in 2025-26 with no plans to return to balance.

Newfoundland and Labrador projects a $372 million shortfall in 2025-26, delaying plans to balance by a year.

Québec’s 2025 Budget focuses on stimulating wealth creation and fostering innovation—top priorities for both the short and longer terms that have been heightened by the current trade turbulence.

Manitoba’s Budget 2025 added more commitments to the ambitious fiscal plan rolled out last year.

Saskatchewan’s 2025 Budget forecasts a modest $12 million surplus, reflecting solid revenue growth and a slight dip in expenditures due to the roll off of one-time expenses.

New Brunswick projects a $599 million deficit in 2025-26 following a $399 million shortfall in 2024-25, marking a shift from the recent streak of surpluses.

The threat of significant international trade disruptions is overshadowing what would have been a substantially improving Canadian economy.

The B.C. government upped projected budget deficits throughout its three-year fiscal plan, including a record $10.9 billion shortfall in 2025-26.

The Alberta government expects a $5.2 billion deficit in fiscal 2025-26 after a surprise surplus in fiscal 2024-25.

Structural economic challenges will need to be addressed this budget season, including managing the fiscal fallout from lower immigration targets and tackling the ongoing affordability crisis.