➔ Canada’s EV battery plan is supercharged

➔ The electric-jet era takes off at Billy Bishop airport

➔ How to unsettle scientists

Hot takes

➔ Canada’s EV battery vision takes shape. Volkswagen’s Canadian battery arm PowerCo is pushing ahead with its St. Thomas, Ontario, gigafactory, with two construction contracts. The plant is slated to start production in 2027. But it’s more than a construction milestone, it’s a signal that Canada’s high-stakes bet on EV supply chains is materializing despite tariff skirmishes and uncertain demand. For Ottawa and Ontario, the real test will be whether it can give Canada a foothold in North America’s evolving battery supply chain. 

➔ Energy ambitions clash with sustainability. Ontario’sproposal to connect Alberta and Saskatchewan oil and gas to refineries in Southern Ontario and tidewater ports, including a new deep-sea port on the James Bay coast, is facing Indigenous pushback. Their key concern: They feel “invisible.” The Indigenous Resource Network is also concerned they are seen as roadblocks to project development, when in fact “they are in fact part of the solution,” the IRN noted. This will be a recurring challenge as Canadian governments look to fast-track projects. Canada will need to get Indigenous groups on board to avoid project delays.

➔ Scientists are unsettled. The U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) stunned the climate academia world with a new report that suggested “CO2-induced warming might be less damaging economically than commonly believed.” Talk about unsettling the science community. Several websites including Nature and Carbon Brief have published pointed ripostes, but the new DoE report is challenging accepted wisdom on climate. Will the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) move swiftly with a rebuttal? Its next assessment report is not due till mid-2028.

Emissions, energy & economy: Assessing Canada’s latest mega project

Ksi Lisims LNG project is ready for its spotlight. The Indigenous-backed project is waiting for an environmental assessment (EA) order from the B.C. government that could potentially see the natural gas export project proceed. The province’s ministers of environment and parks and energy are set to decide by September 7.

Here’s how the project could impact Canada’s economy, emissions and energy:

Who’s behind it:  The Nisga’a Nation, a self-governing First Nation on the Pacific Coast. Western LNG, backed by an affiliate of investment heavyweight Blackstone Inc., is a partner.

Location: Right next to the U.S. border on Pearse Island.

Timelines: The EA was expected by Q4 2024, so we are already playing catchup. The original application placed construction between Q2 of 2025 to Q4 of 2027, with operations beginning in 2028 (till at least 2058).

Project description: Two floating LNG facilities, each with liquefaction processing units. Once fully complete, the project will handle up to two billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) and export around 12 million tonnes per annum of LNG.

Who’s opposing it: The project faces opposition from several environmental groups and Indigenous groups, including the Gitanyow Hereditary Chiefs and Lax Kw’alaams Band.

Related infrastructure: An environmental certificate has been issued for the 780-kilometre Prince Rupert Gas Transmission (PRGT) project, which Nisga’a and Western bought from TC Energy in 2024. If PRGT rings a bell, that’s because it was the key conduit for the now-defunct Malaysian energy giant Petronas’s LNG project proposal back in 2014. It was approved even then, with amendments in July to address new environmental concerns.

What about the project’s emissions: The development expects to be net-zero ready by 2030, subject to an electricity agreement with BC Hydro. Project proponents say it would contribute 0.02% of B.C.’s emissions and 0.002% of total Canadian emissions.

Is that good?: The project claims to have a lower well-to-port emissions intensity compared to U.S. Gulf Coast projects (0.76–1.19 tonne of carbon/tonne of LNG lower). At full production, Ksi Lisims LNG would emit 9–14 million tonnes less CO2e per year than a U.S. Gulf Coast terminal project.

Cool (your) jets

Is this the future of electric aviation?

RBC Thought Leadership’s Energy lead Shaz Merwat was on the Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport runway last week as Beta Technologies Alia CX300 rolled out an all-electric aircraft. The conventional takeoff/landing aircraft can be configured either as a passenger or cargo aircraft. Here are some cool specs:

• Passenger capacity: 5 passengers

• Cargo capacity: 1,250 lbs. of cargo

• Maximum demonstrated range: 336 nautical miles (i.e., Toronto to Sarnia, or Calgary to Okanagan region)

• Max speed: 280 km/hour (Cessna 172 can top 344 km/hour)

• Charge Time: <1 hour

• Energy cost: $18 per hour of flight time (Cessna 208: $347 per hour)

• Emissions: At least 75% less emissions than a conventional small aircraft

• Uses: Short-haul cargo and corporate travel

The CX300 photographed above is the cargo variant, and fourth off the production line with final delivery to Air New Zealand. The carrier will use the aircraft for regional cargo routes.

Billy Bishop is arguably already one of North America’s most sustainable airports, and is on a path to fully electrifying its vehicle fleet, including shuttle buses, ground vehicles, towing, etc.

To learn more about decarbonizing aviation, listen to the episode of RBC’s Disruptors Podcast on the topic with Angela Avery, Executive Vice President, Chief People, Corporate & Sustainability Officer at WestJet Group and Geoff Tauvette, Executive Director at the Canadian Council for Sustainable Aviation Fuels (C-SAF).

Trends, tech and science

Canada’s turning its chill into an advantage. Ottawa recently injected $2.5 million in TerraFixing’s direct air capture (DAC) tech—aimed at extracting CO₂ in remote, wintry zones where low temperatures actually enhance efficiency. It’s an inventive way to turn Canadian winters into an advantage. If TerraFixing can prove cold-weather DAC works at scale, it could give Canada an edge in the global carbon-capture arms race.

A new “cli-fi” take on extreme weather. Sarah Hall’s Helm, is the latest novel in the new climate fiction genre that blends “atmospheric principles” with folktales to paint a picture of humans’ relationship with nature. Meanwhile, eco-warrior Bill McKibben, who once wrote a book with the grim The End of Nature title, returns with a surprisingly upbeat Here Comes the Sun: A Last Chance for the Climate and a Fresh Chance for Civilization.

➔ The worried, the hopeless and the climate-conscious

➔ King Coal’s long rein continues

➔ A global gridlock’s holding back renewables

Hot takes

➔ Climate literacy for the worried and the hopeless. Ottawa plans to invest14.4 million in 17 projects to boost environmental literacy among young people. It ranges from $1.8 million for BC Parks Foundation to inform students about biodiversity loss and several programs that combine climate science with traditional Indigenous knowledge. We are going to need all of it: A recent study shows Canadian youth are wallowing in “worry and hopelessness” in response to climate change.

➔ Carbon Upcycling is a step closer to cracking the cement emissions challenge. The Calgary-based startup recently broke ground on Canada’s first commercial-scale carbon capture and utilization facility at partner Ash Grove’s Mississauga cement plant. Opening in 2026, the $10-millionproject will capture kiln CO₂ and convert it, along with other industrial byproducts, into up to 30,000 tonnes a year of low-carbon cement materials. Funded by federal programs and venture firm CRH Ventures, the initiative aims to embed circular economy solutions into heavy industry. Also read our 2024 case study on Carbon Upcycling.

➔ UN plastics treaty talks are on the brink. There was limited consensus among delegates of 179 nations after a 10-day marathon on global plastic pollution that ends today. The scale of the problem is massive, with straws, cups and stirrers, carrier bags and microbeads among the single-use products clogging up oceans and threatening marine life. The 2,000-plus delegates are poring over 32 clauses in a draft text, but, some say, countries can’t even agree on the definition of “plastic pollution.”

AI deepfakes’ power problems

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe was the latest target of an AI deepfake video that falsely showed him promoting cryptocurrencies. It’s not just a public menace—it has implications for the climate.

Some AI models gobble up 20.4 million joules to generate a 30-second video, according to data extrapolated from an MIT study —that’s enough to power an electric vehicle for 18 kilometres. Eight million AI deepfakes could be shared online this year—doubling every six months, according to Open Fox, a law-enforcement consultancy. Add to it millions of meaningless, misleading and near-malicious AI-concocted videos that litter the Internet (countries as mythical monsters , anyone?). It’s not nothing: One 30-second video per day, for a month, would be the equivalent of adding 40% to a typical one-bedroom apartment’s utility bill, according to energy policy lead Shaz Merwat who wrote about AI’s power needs last year.

AI’s demand on power grids is already formidable:

➔ Datacentres will account for 20% of electricity demand growth to 2030 in advanced economies, the International Energy Agency estimates.

➔ Emissions from data centres could rise from 180 million tonnes today to 300 metric tonnes (Mt) by 2035 in IEA’s base case, with 500 Mt as a higher estimate—roughly 2.5x the emissions of Canada’s oil and gas sector.

➔ The United States now has the largest pipeline of gas-fired power plants in development globally, surpassing China—with a fifth to power data centres.

➔ Given the exponential use originating from image and video queries, most likely over time, we could see tiered pricing for heavy data users to match users’ data use for heavier AI tasks, Merwat said.

Felippa Amanta, who published a study on the AI deepfake challenge for Oxford University, goes a step further: “The deepfake’s effect on climate information and emotion will be much more significant than the direct energy to produce the deepfake.”

King Coal’s enduring rein

Spot the resilient fossil fuel in the chart below. Old King Coal set a new demand record last year, with coal-for-power generation also hitting its highest level ever. Trade in the carbon-intensive commodity also broke records in 2024. Coal is the world’s most carbon-intensive fossil fuel, with emissions on average 50% higher than natural gas.

Here are some coal trends that suggests it will endure for some time:

• China accounts for 56% of global demand, but India and the U.S. is expected to see production rise.

• The U.S. is considering several regulations that were poised to limit coal use in power generation. A Trump executive order also lifted “unattainable emissions controls” for coal plants to ensure energy security.

• The IEA expects global coal consumption to plateau in 2026, but rise 5% in the fast-growing ASEAN region.

• Despite coal’s resurgence, the IEA expects renewables-based electricity generation to overtake coal-fired generation in 2025.

Trends, tech and science

Ballard is powering through a global hydrogen reckoning. The Vancouver-based company that’s been plugging away at hydrogen tech since 1979, launched its second major shake-up in less than a year. It underscores the pressure hydrogen fuel cell companies face after years of hype. Under new CEO Marty Neese, Ballard is pivoting to a narrower set of applications where its technology has proven traction, like transit buses and stationary backup power. The 30% operating cost cut target for 2026 suggests that the pace of hydrogen buildout has been slower than the market—or Ballard’s earlier strategies—anticipated.

A global gridlock is stifling renewable energy. Nearly 40% of Scotland’s wind power capacity was curtailed due to grid constraints over the past six months. That’s the latest setback in a long list of renewable and affordable power being held back by a gridlock. For every dollar invested in renewable power, just 60 cents go to grids and storage—the ratio should be one-to-one, the UN estimates, noting that there’s three times more renewable energy waiting to be plugged into grids than was added last year.

Solar and wind are getting eclipsed. The White House’s war on renewables has seen projects valued at US$22-bilion scrapped in the first six months of 2025, according to E2 data . That’s 16,500 in jobs lost during the period. On the heels of the Big Beautiful Bill that would see low-carbon energy credits phased out faster, a new federal order subjects wind and solar projects to greater scrutiny as it “denigrates the beauty of our Nation’s natural landscape.” It echoes Alberta’s no-go zone directive last year.

RBC Briefings

• Trade Zone: Trump’s US$48 billion hit on American buyers

• Will Artificial Intelligence soon become Artificial Influence?

• John Stackhouse on the Ministry for the Future’s clarion call for climate action

➔ AI gets all the attention, but the AC is also a major power drag, too

➔ Canada’s ghost emissions

➔ David Suzuki and Chris Wright’s starkly different world views

Hot takes

➔ Ghost emissions are climate change’s untold story. Globally, emissions from Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) are tracked but not included in a country’s emissions inventory. While emissions from managed lands are included, emissions from unmanaged lands are excluded as they are triggered by events beyond human control-such as wildfires. But they are formidable: Wildfire on just managed lands had emissions in 2023 that surpassed Canada’s total accounted emissions-by a lot. This year’s LULUCF emissions could rack up, too. By June 2nd, total estimated wildfire emissions for Canada were second only to 2023, with approximately 56 megatonnes of carbon (or 8% of Canada’s GHG emissions in 2023), according to the EU CAMS Global Fire Assimilation System. That’s years of painstaking climate action wiped out in weeks. This highlights a fundamental tension in Canada’s climate policy: most of the attention has been on emissions mitigation; less attention has been paid to climate adaptation. And we are all paying the price.

➔ Is it time for a $100-billion Pathway + pipeline package? Alberta and Ottawa are making progress on a big energy package that could include a West Coast oil pipeline, the long-contemplated Pathways project to capture carbon emissions, and room for expanded oil production, writes John Stackhouse from Calgary. But Mark Carney’s team may need to finesse its way out of the previous Liberal government’s oil and gas emissions cap. That could involve a new target, or delayed timeline, or a refined approach to measuring abated emissions. The package’s headline costs could also be sobering—up to $100 billion.

➔ The Texas tragedy underscores the frequency, and intensity, of floods. More than 80% of Canadians live in urban areas, and around 8 out of 10 major Canadian cities are located in proximity to flood zones, according to the federal government. Floods are already Canada’s costliest natural hazard in terms of property damage, causing $2 billion in destruction annually, as climate change supercharges weather conditions. As part of a greater National Adaptation Strategy, Ottawa is spending  $164.2 million to update Canada’s flood mapping program by 2028. Will it be enough?

➔ David Suzuki and Chris Wright’s recent comments highlight the tension between environmentalists and some energy proponents. Canada’s veteran environmentalist told iPolitics recently that its “too late” to reverse climate change as policymakers are focused on economic growth, not nature. Meanwhile, U.S. Energy Secretary Christ Wright sees the climate crisis as a byproduct of progress, not an existential threat. “I am willing to take the modest negative trade-off for this legacy of human advancement,” he wrote in The Economist. Policy is often driven by political cycles, with energy proponents winning this round. However, the next political cycle is around the corner.

The Big Cool

Power-hungry data centres get all the attention, but the humble air conditioner is also a major strain on grids. As summers get more oppressive in Canada and around the world, the International Energy Agency expects air conditioners to be a top driver of global electricity demand, with air-conditioner ownership worldwide rising from 37% to 45% by 2030.

Here’s why cooling is emerging as a critical climate issue:

➔ Cooling generated just over 1 gigatonne of carbon emissions globally in 2022 (1.9% of total). Space cooling could also lead to leakage of refrigerants, which have a global warming potential of around 1,000 times higher than CO2.

➔ 2Energy demand for space cooling globally is growing at 4% annually, twice as fast as water heating. This is putting pressure on power capacity, especially as countries like Canada strain to keep their grids clean.

➔ In Canada, the percentage of households with an air conditioner hit 64% in 2021, compared to 55% in 2013. That’s even more impressive given the surge in households over the past decade.

➔ Buildings account for 18% of Canada’s total emissions. Of these, space heating and cooling represent more than 67% of building energy use.

➔ One in 10 Canadian households had a heat pump (which, of course, double up as air-conditioners) in 2021, from virtually zero a few years prior. Heat pumps are 4.5 times more efficient than conventional air conditioners, making them a key pillar of climate action.

➔ Residential heat pump imports jumped 71% in Canada in Q1, compared to the same period last year, the Heating, Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Institute of Canada (HRAI) data shows.

➔ Federal and provincial Canadian policymakers are considering building codes that would stipulate at least one room with an air conditioner in a home.

➔ Access to cooling is emerging as a human rights issues, especially after nearly 600 people died in a Vancouver heat dome event in 2021.

➔ “An important driver of activity is climate-change mitigation, driven mostly by policy, rebate programs, incentive,” says Martin Luymes, Vice President, Government & Stakeholder Relations at HRAI. For instance, federal rebates led to record heat pump sales, which then dropped off when the programs ended. Several provinces including Ontario, B.C., and Nova Scotia continue to offer rebates, helping sustain interest.

➔ The Canadian HVAC industry sees the possible termination of the Energy Star program in the U.S. as a “major mistake,” says Luymes, noting that the program, which promotes energy-efficient products including air conditioners, as valuable, low-cost consumer guidance tools. Experts say scrapping or weakening Energy Star could harm climate progress.

The good and the ugly in the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act

Donald Trump’s signature 2025-26 budget bill is now law. The legislation changes several clean energy tax incentives that were managed under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), tightens domestic content requirements, imposes new qualification deadlines and sunsets other tax credits that could impact Canadian cleantech firms eyeing opportunities across the border.

Here’s the good, the bad and the ugly of the OBBBA:

Carbon capture: The bill maintains credits for carbon capture, but also provides incentives for captured CO2 for oil production, underscoring the administration’s commitment to the fossil fuels industry.

Nuclear: The bill maintains credits for both existing nuclear facilities and new advanced energy technologies. However, new foreign entity provisions could inject uncertainty in the sector’s growth. The legislation is supported by an earlier executive order that targets a quadrupling of U.S. nuclear capacity from 100GW to 400 GW by 2050.

EVs: Electric vehicle manufacturing and competitiveness will be “hard hit,” according to the Center on Global Energy Policy, noting that the law could reduce domestic demand for EVs, jeopardize battery investment and allow China and other foreign competitors to gain greater market share.

Clean grid: Solar and wind power was particularly hard hit as historic investment and production tax credits sunset earlier than before. The law would reduce the build-out of new clean power generating capacity by 53-59% through to 2035, according to the Rhodium Group. An executive order following the OBBBA directs the U.S. Treasury Secretary to eliminate subsidies for “unreliable green sources like wind and solar,” that it believes is threatening national security. A separate executive order directs the Treasury Secretary to end “market-distorting subsidies for unreliable, foreign controlled energy sources.”

Critical minerals: Metallurgical coal is nowdeemed a “critical mineral,” allowing it to qualify for a production tax credit. The law also broadly reduced 45X Production Tax Credits for critical minerals to 2033 (compared to no limits before), which would pose a challenge as most critical minerals projects require long timelines. The Center for Strategic & International says the “amended tax credit disincentivizes investment in newly discovered greenfield projects with longer timelines to production in favour of brownfield legacy mines that may be closer to production but have lower grade reserves.”

Trends, tech and science

China is the world’s energy transition workhorse. Around 74%, or 1.3 terawatt, of the world’s new wind and solar capacity is being built in the country, with the U.S. a distant second with 5.9% of all new projects, and India third at 5.1%, according to Global Energy Monitor. The 590GW of new Chinese wind capacity proposed or underway could power nearly all U.S. households. China’s inevitable cleantech dominance poses a conundrum for the West, as suggested by EU President Ursula von der Leyen earlier this month: “Beijing is at once a staunch competitor in the clean tech race, and a vital partner for global decarbonization.” A fractured G7 can’t keep Chinese tech out for too long.

Straddling cleantech and AI. Founded by veteran tech investor Nicholas Parker, CleanAI recently launched a networking and financing ecosystem for entrepreneurs and businesses intersecting AI and clean-tech. CleanAI research shows that the artificial intelligence-enabled cleantech solution space would require US$138 billion over the next five years and could mitigate up to 10% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

RBC Briefings

• Trade Zone: The Great Canadian Stampede to find new trading partners

• Supply Management Explained

• Climate Crunch: Canada’s other green superpower

• U.S. and Canada outlooks intact amid reorienting trade flows

• Five-minute charging: How grids can manage power spikes

The Institute In Action

• Last week, John Stackhouse visited Limberlost Place, Ontario’s first mass timber, net-zero carbon emissions building, to participate in a documentary about the project. The George Brown College building is set to open this fall in Toronto.

• On July 15th, Nathan Janzen and Lisa Ashton gave a keynote presentation at the Dairy Farmers of Canada Annual General Meeting in Toronto.

Books on the team’s reading list:

• Genesis, Henry Kissinger, Craig Mundie and Eric Schmidt, on AI’s transformative powers, in politics, security, prosperity and science. Read John’s review here.

• The Explorer’s Gene: Why We Seek Big Challenges, New Flavors, and the Blank Spots on the Map, by Alex Hutchinson.

➔ A Silicon Valley of direct air capture set to debut in Alberta

➔ Global abundance: Exploring the New Energy Age

➔ Brazil is cooking up sustainable soybeans for China

Hot takes

➔ The Silicon Valley of direct air capture is taking shape in central Alberta. Quebec-based Deep Sky, backed by a US$40-million grant from Bill Gates’ Breakthrough Energy, is opening its direct air capture innovation and commercialization centre in Innisfail in central Alberta this summer. The facility—seen as a hub for direct air capture activities—will serve as a sandbox for firms to test direct-air carbon-sucking technologies before they scale their operations commercially. Eight companies—from Canada, the U.S. and Germany and others—have already signed up. In a vote of confidence, the Alberta government also recently invested $5 million in DeepSky from the province’s Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction Regulation (TIER) fund.

➔ Ontario is crafting a new wood construction strategy. The recently announced Advanced Wood Construction Plan aims to promote wood use in larger and taller structures to accelerate projects, lower costs by as much as 20%. Swapping cement and steel with wood would also help lower emissions in a sector that accounts for 18% of Canada’s total emissions. Widespread adoption of wood, specifically mass timber, as a substitute or complement to concrete and steel could cut embodied emissions in buildings by as much as 25%, according to our report Mass Timber. The five-year plan comes as the province’s $20-billion industry is facing punitive U.S. tariffs.

➔ Forecasters are scrambling to assess demand from data centres in the U.S. Electricity demand is now set to grow 25% by 2030 and 78% by 2050, compared to 2023 levels, according to a new report by ICF, a consulting firm. That’s an annual growth rate of 3.2% through 2030 (1.4% previously) and 2.2% (1.1% previously) through 2050 and contrasts with the past two decades when U.S. electricity demand was essentially flat. The strain on capacity could lead to a doubling of electricity prices by 2050, ICF warns. Texas, along with California and PJM region (covering 13 mid-Atlantic and Midwest states)—markets already importing Canadian electricity—will see the highest demand growth.

➔ Brazil is developing bespoke, sustainable soybeans for China. Inspired by its successful Boi China beef model, the Latin American country aims to develop “Soy China,” through a supply chain that aligns with China’s environmental standards and runs on renewable energy. It’s also seen as a way for China to counter the EU Deforestation Regulations (EUDR), which have much stricter rules. Many countries (inside and outside the EU) have raised concerns about the EUDR because of its stringent traceability requirements that do not align with conventional soybean supply chains. And Brazil and China’s move is alternate route for soybeans to flow. The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently warned that sustainable soybeans would directly challenge American and Canadian exporters’ market share in China.

Nature capital: Canada’s other green power

By Lisa Ashton

As climate change disrupts the U.K.’s landscapes—from the Scottish Highlands to the Somerset Wetlands—the country is facing a £97-billion ($181-billion) nature asset deficit. The Green Finance Institute (GFI) estimates that planned public spending on conservation and restoration by the government is well short of delivering on its binding commitments, including the 25-year Environment Plan and the U.K.’s 30×30 targets under the UN Biodiversity targets. It also presents real risks and losses of between £150-£300 billion of U.K.’s GDP by 2030. The U.K. government is now seeking ideas from businesses, investors, and innovators to protect the “natural foundations of its economy,” and spur growth in its “burgeoning” nature services sector.

Canada can draw lessons from the U.K. experience. It’s home to landmark investments in several initiatives including the Great Bear Sea project finance for permanence (PFP), and watershed policy commitments to protect and conserve 30% of Canada’s land and water by 2030.

Canada’s is truly a nature powerhouse with riches that are second to none:

➔ It’s one of just five countries that collectively contain more than 70% of the world’s remaining intact ecosystems;

➔ 20% of the world’s total freshwater;

➔ 25% of the world’s wetlands;

➔ 24% of the world’s boreal forests;

➔ the world’s longest coastline;

➔ the world’s longest coastline;

➔ ecosystems in Canada provide essential habitat for approximately 80,000 species.

But, Canada, like many others, has not been able to unlock nature finance at scale to address declining natural capital as a share of GDP—roughly 70% in 1995 to about 40% today—and mitigate the risks associated with a natural environment that’s experiencing more deterioration than the U.S. and the U.K. Wildfires year-to-date alone could risk 0.4% of Saskatchewan’s GDP and 0.2% for Alberta, according to Statistics Canada estimates.

Nature finance is in its infancy, but a pathway to build natural capital in Canada and investments is slowly being charted. In 2022, the Government of Canada issued its first green bond, valued at $5 billion, with a portion of funds going to nature-based projects including financing that supports the adoption of climate-smart agriculture practices.

Exploring nature finance is an opportunity to build greater resilience in Canada’s natural resource dependent economy driven by fuel, food, fertilizer and forestry production.

Trends, tech & science

Gas flaring in Alberta is raising alarms among health professionals. The Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment (CAPE ) Alberta chapter cited research that shows a 1% increase in flaring exposure led to a 0.73% rise in respiratory-related hospital visits. The warning comes after Reuters reported that gas flaring blew past the province’s self-imposed limit on annual natural gas flaring in 2024, for a second year in a row. In June, the Alberta Energy Regulator said it was ending limits on flaring.

Overcapacity is reinforcing steel’s hard-to-abate reputation. Around 30% of steel capacity remains unused globally, an excess that’s sent prices plunging to a four-year low. With margins under pressure, steelmakers are hardly in the mood to decarbonize. The problem is set to worsen: more than 40% of new steelmaking capacity—mostly from “non-market” forces such as China—that’s set to enter the market by 2027 will be emission-intensive, according to an OECD report . Strengthening international co-operation to address excess capacity and market distortions will be vital to improve the outlook for steelmakers in market economies, the OECD recommends. That would give steelmakers the space to advance decarbonization efforts. New anti-dumping tariffs in Canada and the U.S., primarily aimed at China, is also an opportunity to establish a green steel market.

Plastic bag bans and fees are making a difference. Several U.S. jurisdictions that enforced these policies have seen a 25-47% dip in plastic bags as a share of total items collected in shoreline cleanups, according to an extensive University of Delaware and Columbia University study. The ban also reduced the number of animals entangled along the shoreline. Still, plastic pollution overall remains a growing challenge. The final round of a Global Plastics Treaty is set for August in Geneva.

The New Energy Age

By John Stackhouse

More, more, more energy.

That was the big message in the IEA’s 10th annual investment report.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) tracks investment flows for all forms of energy, and this year is more relevant than ever, given the volatility we’ve seen in energy prices this decade. While a slower global economy may temper some investment patterns, what gets built today will shape energy patterns in years to come.

Some highlights:

• Capital flows to the energy sector are on course to reach US$3.3 trillion this year.

• China is leading the energy investment surge, accounting for nearly a third of global investment, split almost evenly between grid and storage, renewable power and fossil fuels.

• North America saw a record US$700 billion in investments in 2024, but will see pullback to US$690 billion this year. Clean energy investment is at an all-time high.

• Would the U.S. new “big, beautiful bill” that guts several clean energy incentives, and Canada’s Bill C-5, that promotes clean and conventional energy projects, move the needle on energy investments?

• The biggest use of investment globally is electrification, which will consume almost half ($1.5 trillion) of all energy capital.

• Only a third of investment will go to oil, natural gas and coal:

• lower oil prices are likely to keep investment down;

• LNG investment is on “a strong upward trajectory,” led by the U.S., Qatar and Canada;

• nuclear’s renaissance continues, rising by 50% over the past five years;

• coal-fired power in advanced economies has ground to a halt, while it’s showing a comeback in China and India.

The bottom line is the world will continue to need to invest trillions a year in energy, across a wide array of sources. As that continues, some long-term trends are clear—more energy investment will go to Asia, especially China; more will go to electrification; and as our new report, “A G7+ Strategy for Natural Gas,” lays out, more will go to gas infrastructure.

Countries that develop the right policies will generate and attract the bulk of that capital, in what’s shaping up to be a New Energy Age.

Must reads

➔ This massive new data centre is powered by used EV batteries (Fast Company)

➔ Would you recycle more if every bottle gave you a chance to win $1,000? (CBC)

➔ Net-zero push is still on at many companies: SBTi (WSJ)

➔ Why Canada’s orphan wells are a bigger methane menace than active wells (ACS Publication)

The Institute In Action

• John Stackhouse and Lisa Ashton visited the Kelburn Farm in Manitoba in late June. The demonstration farm operates out of the Red River Valley, a growing hotspot for agri-food innovation. The Kelburn Farm is a place for farmers, students, researchers, and companies along the agri-food supply chains to test and trial new ideas that are advancing Canadian agriculture.

• Shaz Merwat was at the RBC Energy Transition Conference in London last week. He also attended a virtual International Energy Agency Conference on certified natural gas this week.

On the team’s reading list:

• Crisis: A Global Case Primer, by Jason Miklian and John Katsos, on leading when things are falling apart.

• Shaz Merwat was at the RBC Energy Transition Conference in London last week. He also attended a virtual International Energy Agency Conference on certified natural gas this week.

➔ Why Canada’s critical to G7+’s metal security

➔ Peak IEA vs OPEC fight

➔ A geothermal breakthrough

Hot takes

➔ Canadians slammed the brakes on zero-emission car purchases in Q1. Sales were down 19.5% compared to the same period last year, while total light-duty vehicles, that includes hybrids and plug-ins, fell 3.2% during the period. New vehicle registrations accounted for 9.5% of total car sales in Q1, down from an impressive 18.9% in Q4, S&P Global data shows. A confluence of factors tripped up sales, including the end of the $5,000 federal rebate, a drop in Quebec’s rebate program, and tariff uncertainty. Tesla is also losing its brand appeal in Canada, securing less than 10% market share in April, down from 50% a few years ago.

➔ G7 leaders were not the only luminaries in Alberta this month. Haitham al-Ghais, secretary-general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, showed up in Calgary for the Global Energy Show with the bold claim that “there is no peak in oil demand on the horizon.” Over the past few years, OPEC and the International Energy Agency have bickered over the peak dates of oil, which the Paris watchdog believes could come before 2030. OPEC also recently called out the IEA for cutting its electric vehicle forecast as proof it was backtracking on its peak-demand theory. But the IEA remains firm, noting in its June forecast that a “peak in global oil demand is still on the horizon.”.

➔ The Arctic is hot territory. Three new books this year show how the top of the world is now top of mind, as it warms up for—and to—more commerce. In The North Pole, Norwegian explorer Erling Kagge charts how explorers were traversing the region as early as the 1600s to find shortcuts from Europe to Asia. In End of the Earth, fossil hunter Neil Shubin explores what the latest science tells us about the riches beneath. And in Arctic Passages, journalist Keiran Mulvaney explores how thawing ice could cut trips from, say, Korea to the Netherlands, circumnavigating geopolitical flashpoints Suez and Panama canals.

Critical Canada

From Nice to Kananaskis, critical minerals are on everyone’s lips. But it was awkward in the coastal French city where delegates at the UN Ocean Conference criticized the U.S.’s interest in deep-sea mining, suggesting that the White House’s plans for offshore critical minerals set “a dangerous precedent that could destabilize the entire system of global ocean governance,” according to the International Seabed Authority (ISA). It seems that the business of developing clean energy inputs is not always, well, clean.

In Kananaskis, Canada corralled G7 nations to at least agree on a critical minerals “action plan .” While a united and sweeping G7 statement was being avoided on several matters to avoid the ire of the Oval Office, leaders agreed on developing a framework to finance new mines and downstream processing facilities, and reduce reliance on China for key metals such as lithium, cobalt and rare earth elements.

As a major producer of several commodities vital for the production of electric vehicles, defence, smart phones and wind turbines, Canada wants to play a key role, as part of its overarching “energy superpower” ambition.

There’s some awkwardness here, too as the federal government is starting to get some pushback: Chiefs of Ontario believe Bill C-5, proposed by the government to fast-track mining and other projects, will override environmental laws and “sidestep constitutional obligations.”

The private sector , which overwhelmingly wants all levels of governments to build an energy-agnostic utility corridor, also has a laundry list of concerns including cost overruns and delays of mega-projects, scope creep, stakeholder consultations, environmental assessments, and regulatory delays, according to a KPMG survey of Canadian executives.

Our report, The New Great Game, outlines how Canada can overcome challenges to scale its critical minerals sector. Further reading: Resourceful: How Canada can strike a new commodity deal with the U.S. and others

The Canada-Japan gas nexus

Japan is the Canadian energy sector’s new market—with a climate twist. B.C. Premier David Eby was in Japan as recently as this month, showcasing his province’s commodity resources, including energy. Meanwhile, Mitsubishi Corp.—an anchor investor in LNG Canada, will start receiving shipments from the facility starting in July.

Our new report on G7+ Strategy for Natural Gas , examines how member countries can leverage natural gas to ensure energy security. Canadian LNG can find a greater Asian foothold if it can align with Japan’s Green Transformation Emissions Trading System (GX-ETS), which is central to the Asian country’s carbon neutrality by 2050.

Here’s how:

• Japan’s GX policy accepts low-carbon LNG—particularly if paired with methane abatement, carbon capture and storage (CCS), or certified emissions standards—as transition-aligned. Canadian LNG could qualify for long-term GX-aligned supply contracts, if emissions reductions are verifiable.

• Japanese investment via GX Transition Bonds, especially in infrastructure such as liquefaction and CCS-enabled transport. Japan is collaborating with Australia and other countries on clean ammonia. Canada’s low-carbon certified energy products can tap several opportunities including financing through GX Transition Bonds and Japan’s Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM).

• Canada can also tap Japan’s plan to scale blue hydrogen imports, by developing natural gas with CCS.

• Japan’s economy also needs power to maintain its edge in computation and digital infrastructure. Data centres, AI and digital infrastructure are going to depend on natural gas, offering another opening for Canada.

Read the full report here. Also watch John Stackhouse and lead author Shaz Merwat discuss the report.

Trends, tech & science

➔ The World Bank is entering the nuclear energy space. In a boost to nuclear, the World Bank is collaborating with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN nuclear watchdog, to support existing reactors and support “grid upgrades,” including SMRs, amid a push from the U.S. and Germany. Natural gas power plants, that do not “constrain renewables,” could also tap its funding. However, the World Bank’s board has not yet agreed on funding upstream natural gas development.

➔ Carbon capture projects are ramping up. Between 2020 and 2030, carbon management project deployment is expected to be dominated by capture-only initiatives, which will account for approximately 45% of all operational and planned projects, according to a new report by the International Energy Forum . The U.S., the U.K. and Canada—in that order—have the highest number of proposed CCUS projects by 2030. That will take proposed global CCUS capacity to 1 gigatonne of CO2 by 2030 (equivalent of taking 306.3 million cars off the road for a year), with most initiatives financed through public funding.

➔ A Bill Gates-backed geothermal firm reported an industry-shaking breakthrough. The industry is abuzz after Houston-based Fervo Energy drilled 15,765 feet in 16 days—a 79% cut in average drilling times. With drilling the costliest line item for geothermal companies, the feat is a giant step in making geothermal economically competitive with other energy sources. Second, its technology—borrowed heavily from fracking techniques—, allows the industry to look beyond geological sweet spots for geothermal, like Iceland. Gates’ Breakthrough Energy immediately rewarded the company with an additional US$100-million injection, part of a US$206-million investment round for the company.

➔ Climate-tech funding perks up

➔ Nuclear ramps up

➔ Got eco-friendly milk?

Hot takes

➔ Canadian climate technology companies raised $468 million in Q1. That’s upfrom a paltry $39 million during the same period last year. It’s a bright beginning to the year following a sluggish period of investment from Q2-Q4 2024. First quarter funding in 2025 was mostly driven by energy storage and clean power deals. While the overall rise in climate technology funding is encouraging, additional investments in industrial innovation—beyond the $36 million raised to date this year from a single deal—will be critical in decarbonizing hard-to-abate industrial sectors.

➔ Speaking of funding, Canada will need more foreign capital to realize its commodity ambitions. More than 100 mineral projects worth $107 billion, are at various stages of development in Canada over the next ten years, according to research by RBC’s Cynthia Leach, Shaz Merwat and Vivan Sorab. With Chinese investment in minerals effectively blocked by Ottawa, Canadian miners would need to tap a variety of countries such as those in America and Europe and institutions such as Middle East sovereign wealth funds, to emerge as a commodity powerhouse. Read the full report here. Also watch RBC analysts talk minerals.

➔ After all the talk, nuclear is finally ramping up. A new U.S. executive order aims to speed up new nuclear plant applications within 18 months—and quadruple nuclear power generation in 25 years. Belgium is scrapping its nuclear phase-out law, while EU members Germany, Denmark, and Italy are reconsidering their stances on nuclear. Ontario also kickstarted a nuclear modular reactor in May. But New Brunswick is delaying its small modular reactor (SMR) plans after its two partners failed to raise capital and hire workers. Ambition is fine, but the challenge is finding the money and the people to execute.

INFRASTRUCTURE

Build, Baby, Build—But Also Wait

Lofty ambitions, meet ground realities.Despite a reset, Canada’s plans to build new clean and conventional energy projects are running up against familiar obstacles, such as stringent environmental rules and lack of Indigenous consent. Both are critical considerations that should not supersede national interest.

Provinces that stitched together new laws in a hurry are being asked to wait:

• Ontario’s Bill 5, which is set to become law, gives the provincial government wide powers to allocate projects to “trusted proponents” in special economic zones. The Canadian Civil Liberties Association calls it an “alarming move,” that they say gives the government the authority to unilaterally scrap legal safeguards that protect vulnerable communities and some Indigenous people.

• Worried about the surge in mining activity, First Nations in Ontario’s Ring of Fire region are demanding the bill be struck down. Mining claims at the Ring of Fire have shot up 67% since 2022, with just under 43,000 claims covering an area 14 times the size of Toronto city, according to Wildlands League.

• In British Columbia, which is hoping to be an LNG and commodity hub, the government narrowly passed the Infrastructure Projects Act (the Speaker had to break the tie) aimed at fast-tracking projects, amid opposition from B.C. Assembly of First Nations, municipalities and environmental organizations.

• Anishinabek Nation Regional Chief Scott McLeod said a national plan to advance projects without input could trigger another “Idle No More” movement.

What are the chances of the federal government facing similar headwinds as it embarks on pushing through a new wave of major projects? The NDP and Bloc Quebecois are already gearing up for a fight. For now, the momentum is with the “Build” crowd.

RBC’s John Stackhouse who wasin Quebec and British Columbia recently, says attitudes towards resource development, and oil and gas exports, are shifting. (Read John’s full briefing from Quebec and B.C. here).

But as Prime Minister Mark Carney and the premiers thrash out a plan and prepare a “national interest” bill, here’s what’s on their to-do-list:

• Indigenous consent will be needed and will take time, especially under B.C.’s commitment to the UN Declaration of the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. The First Ministers’ statement after their meeting acknowledges those challenges.

• Premier Danielle Smith wants nine “terrible” federal policies, such as the proposed oil and gas emissions cap and tanker ban on B.C.’s northern coast, which she believes discouraged investment. How will policymakers balance their economic and environmental commitments?

• Industrial carbon pricing remains another point of contention as it makes Canadian gas exports less competitive, but advance’s the country’s climate goals.

• First Ministers’ focus on “decarbonized oil and gas pipelines” is another interesting proposition and would require leaning on carbon capture technology.

• Building cleaner and more affordable electricity systems to ensure net-zero by 2050 could also spark activity in several industries such as steel, lumber and aluminum that have been deeply disrupted by U.S. tariffs.

Trends, tech and science

Got eco-friendly milk? It appears consumers can’t have all three—nutrition, low emissions and water conservation—when picking milk. Good old-fashioned dairy is the most emissions- and water-intensive but also the most nutritious, according to a World Resources Institute study. Almond appears to be the greatest disappointment: consuming almost as much water as dairy but is rather unwholesome. The winner appears to be the lesser-known pea milk.

Canadian cleantech remains a man’s world. Women were paid 17% less than men in 2023 in the environmental and cleantech (ECT) space—more pronounced than the 12.8% wage deficit women face in the overall Canadian economy, Statistics Canada data shows. Even though women in the industry (41.6%) were almost twice as likely as men (24.6%) to have a university diploma or degree. Overall, 7 in 10 jobs were held by men in a sector that represents 1.7% of all Canadian jobs in 2023.

A garbage truck’s worth of plastic enters the ocean every minute.That catastrophe is what makes Ocean with David Attenborough compellingviewing (now out in cinemas). “In front of us is a chance to protect our climate, our food, our home,” said Attenborough, the famed 99-year-old biologist. Oceans absorb 30% of CO2 emissions from human activities, yet only 2.4% of oceans are protected—compared to the global pledge to protect 30% of the ocean by 2030. The UN, which is hosting a conference on oceans next week in Nice, France, notes that of its 17 Sustainable Development Goals, protecting “Life Below Water,” remains the most underfunded.

The Institute In Action

• In British Columbia, John Stackhouse joined a meeting between the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade and Calgary Chamber to discuss Canada’s role in global natural gas exports.

• Myha Truong-Regan attended the Walrus Talks, Power Economy: Using Electricity to Change Cities, Homes, and Industry recently, to hear seven climate thought leaders and practitioners argue why the future is and must be electric.

• Varun Srivatsan spoke to an audience at the Saskatchewan First Nations Energy Forum last week on equity financing and the importance of capacity, capital and consent to resource development.

On the team’s reading list

• Fantasyland, a 500-year history of “How America Went Haywire” by Kurt Andersen. Read John’s review here.

• Hotshot: A Life On Fire by River Selby, on wildfires and insights on U.S. federal fire policy, Indigenous land use and ecological history.

• Is A River Alive? by Robert Macfarlane, tracks flowing water in Ecuador, India and Canada.

• Who is government: The Untold Story of Public Service, by Michael Lewis, explores the vast complexity of American bureaucracy.