Monthly Forecast Update

After a stubbornly dovish March FOMC meeting—strong growth forecasts accompanied by a flat dot plot and no taper talk—we thought a more balanced tone from the US central bank was just a matter of time. And the Fed indeed changed its tune in June, signaling rates will indeed have to rise in 2023 given strong […]

Canada and Europe continued to ramp up their COVID-19 vaccination programs in May, trying to close the gap to early leaders the US and UK.

RBC Economics expects both the BoC and Fed to raise policy rates by 50 basis points in 2022, while the other central banks are likely to remain on hold.

Vaccines, stimulus boosting advanced economy growth prospects, pushing bond yields, equities higher in March.

Government bonds were sold off sharply in February. The moves largely reflect improving economic outlook and inflation upside.

Lockdowns are making for a slow start to 2021 and vaccines will support a return to growth in Q2 and beyond.

Ongoing containment measures will slow Canada's recovery, while more measured restrictions and fiscal stimulus should keep the US economy growing.

Positive vaccine developments are brightening economic growth prospects in 2021. The near-term outlook is still challenging, but we're now expecting a stronger recovery.

Until a vaccine is widely available, governments face a tough balancing act between containing the virus's spread and keeping the economy open.

With a rise in cases across several countries, new restrictions are threatening economic recovery momentum.

Early economic recoveries have been stronger than expected and slower momentum later this year will leave output gaps wide.

Indicators suggest a stronger than expected near-term economic rebound but less fiscal support and ongoing social distancing will cap the recovery.