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The Bottom Line:

The Canadian goods trade deficit narrowed from -$1.4 billion in February to -$500 million March as imports fell and a drop in exports to the United States (-6.6%) was largely offset by an increase in shipments to other parts of the world (24.8%.)

U.S. tariffs were already in place for key Canadian exports in March—but the share of exports meeting CUSMA/USMCA rules of origin (and exempt from blanket tariffs imposed early in March) already showed signs of increasing, rising to 50% in March from 33% in February and 40% a year ago, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Tariffs on steel and aluminum products imposed from March 12 apply irrespective of the CUSMA/USMCA, but a large portion of exports still appear to have crossed the border duty free. The average U.S. tariff rate on imports from Canada rose to 1.9% in March from 0.1% in February (with larger increases on imports from China and Mexico).

Tariffs on U.S. auto imports will add to that total in April, but as long as Canadian trade compliance with CUSMA/USMCA continues to rise as expected, the broader implementation of reciprocal tariffs should leave Canada with the lowest tariff rate among major U.S. trading partners in June.

On a relative basis, that will put Canadian exporters in a stronger position in the competition for share of the U.S. import market. But, the broader concern remains that U.S. tariff hikes have been so large (all of its trade partners outside of Canada and Mexico still face a minimum of 10% tariff) that U.S. economic growth will slow with negative implications for close trading partners like Canada.

Share of trade compliant with CUSMA/USMCA rose with more increases to come

The CUSMA/USMCA free trade agreement is now critically important in shielding Canadian exports from U.S. tariffs. Only 38% of Canadian exports to the U.S. actually used CUSMA/USMCA rules last year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. But, we expect that was largely due to the administrative burden of satisfying the rules of origin, which was unnecessary with other general U.S. tariff rates already zero.

The share jumped to 50% in March as the CUSMA/USMCA compliance become more critical, and we expect will continue to rise relatively quickly in the months ahead.

By our count, more than 94% of Canadian exports to the U.S. are likely compliant with CUSMA rules of origin. Other U.S. tariff measures on steel and aluminum products, and on motor vehicles still apply, but we estimate roughly 86% of Canadian exports should ultimately be able to access the U.S. market duty free under current trade rules.

U.S. reciprocal tariff hikes will push Canada to bottom of tariff rankings

Canadian exports were still disproportionately targeted by U.S. tariffs in March. The increase in the average effective tariff rate on U.S. imports from Canada jumped to 1.9% from 0.1% in February. That increase is still small compared to the 11% rise in the China tariff rate (to 25%) and the 3.5 percentage point increase on imports from Mexico. But, it was still the third largest increase across all major U.S. trade partners.

However, the ranking will swing sharply in April with a 10% minimum U.S. tariff rate now in place on all import partners other than Canada and Mexico

We expect those measures, combined with further progress among traders to comply with CUSMA/USMCA rules of origin pushed Canada to the lowest U.S. tariff rate globally in April—largely eliminating an incentive for U.S. buyers to substitute imports from Canada with another foreign supplier.

The Details:

• The Canadian goods trade deficit narrowed from -$1.4 billion in February to -$500 million March with a drop in exports to the U.S. (-6.6%) largely offset by an increase in shipments to other parts of the world (24.8%.)

• Total merchandise exports were little changed (-0.2%) from February, and increased by 1.1% (chain weighted) controlling for a drop in energy prices.

• A 7.7% jump in motor vehicle exports likely reflected a rush to front-load shipments to the U.S. ahead of auto tariffs implemented in April.

• Statistics Canada continues to highlight data issues making import data more revision-prone than normal. But, imports broadly held up in March despite concerns that plunging business and consumer confidence are slowing domestic demand.

• Statistics Canada continues to highlight data issues making import data more revision-prone than normal. But, imports broadly held up in March despite concerns that plunging business and consumer confidence are slowing domestic demand.