Skip to main content
RBC Thought Leadership Climate Action Subsidies & Speed Bumps: The road ahead for Canada’s auto strategy
Climate Action
Climate Action

Subsidies & Speed Bumps: The road ahead for Canada’s auto strategy

Incentives are back, but unlikely to trigger a major uptick in sales

Read time 4 minutes

Canada’s new automotive strategy is a signal that Ottawa is keen to persist with a central pillar of the country’s manufacturing sector, despite tariff pressures and suggestions from the U.S. President that “we don’t need cars made in Canada.” The new strategy aims to carve out a new path for the industry, led by electric vehicles that have blossomed into a US$750-billion market worldwide in 2025.1

Key 2026 themes we are watching:

Incentives are back, but unlikely to trigger a major uptick in sales. Provincial subsides are phasing out, and the eligible cars pool is limited

Offering up to $5,000 to consumers buying an EV under $50,000, the $2.3 billion subsidy will add 840,000 EVs to Canadian roads by 2030, the government projects.

Total impact on adoption, however, might be subdued. At least 7 in 10 of all purchases under the previous federal program received a subsidy, largely stacked on top of provincial rebates. But provincial support is also dwindling. The once $7,000 stackable support in Quebec now stands at $2,000, while the $4,000 EV subsidy in British Columbia has ended. Most of the other provinces have also pulled back incentives—Prince Edward Island lowered its rebate amount, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia are ending theirs, while rebates in Manitoba and Newfoundland expiring in March.

Transaction value threshold of $50,000 targeted for the mass-market segment is also likely to limit adoption. There are only 18 models included in the list of potentially eligible vehicles for a subsidy, 2 which made up only 30% of EV sales in both 2024 and 2025.3

EV prices are still high, and Chinese cars might not deliver the expected relief

The average price of a new EV in Canada was about $70,000 last year,4 so the 49,000 cars under the new China deal could prove to be an attractive bargain. However, final costs for a Chinee EV are likely to creep up as Chinese imports still carry a 6.1% tariff, plus the costs of shipping vehicles to Canada. Chinese carmakers are also likely to seek higher profit margins compared to their competitive domestic market, which is awash with more than 50 brands.

Overall, EV price improvements have lost momentum, especially as battery prices—that make up about a third of EV costs—are also flattening out. The 25-40% difference in costs between Chinese and U.S. carmakers stems from efficiency in battery production.5 The recent scale back of EV roll-out plans by the Detroit Three—Ford, GM and Stellantis—could further slow price improvements in North American EVs.

Check out RBC’s Electric Car Cost Calculator to compare electric vehicle costs to gas models

Emissions would likely to come down, mostly driven by hybrid electric vehicles adoption

Canada’s new emissions standards, however, don’t target EV sales specifically, they only aim to achieve equivalent emission reduction of up to 75% EV sales in 2035, compared to 100% EV sales required under the previous legislation.

Over the past decade, emissions performance improved by 30-50%, however, total emissions continued to rise as more cars entered Canadian roads, from ~20.1 million passenger vehicles in 2011 to 24.5 million in 2024.6 7 BloombergNEF projects that Canada’s car fleet will largely stay flat going into 2035 and decline further in future, in which case improved emissions performance will deliver absolute emissions reduction, though clean fleet eventually hinges on parting with all tailpipe emissions.8

American carmakers now have the flexibility to adjust their technology to ensure compliance, which could delay full electrification in favour of hybrid cars, which are nearly half as less emitting and are more attractively priced. Hybrids are already ascendant, with car sales in the category on the rise in 2025 even as battery-electric vehicles (BEV) sales plummeted.

This article is intended as general information only and is not to be relied upon as constituting legal, financial or other professional advice. The reader is solely liable for any use of the information contained in this document and Royal Bank of Canada (“RBC”) nor any of its affiliates nor any of their respective directors, officers, employees or agents shall be held responsible for any direct or indirect damages arising from the use of this document by the reader. A professional advisor should be consulted regarding your specific situation. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. No endorsement of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressly given or implied by Royal Bank of Canada or any of its affiliates. This document may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of certain securities laws, which are subject to RBC’s caution regarding forward-looking statements. ESG (including climate) metrics, data and other information contained on this website are or may be based on assumptions, estimates and judgements. For cautionary statements relating to the information on this website, refer to the “Caution regarding forward-looking statements” and the “Important notice regarding this document” sections in our latest climate report or sustainability report, available at: https://www.rbc.com/our-impact/sustainability-reporting/index.html. Except as required by law, none of RBC nor any of its affiliates undertake to update any information in this document.

Read This Next

Climate Crunch: Canada’s hunt for transformers and talent

Plus, Canada is going global with its nuclear ambitions

Climate Crunch: Saving whales, bees and salamanders while building Canada

Plus, FIFA World's Cup's heavy carbon footprint.

Climate Crunch: The tech race to tame Canada’s wildfires

Plus, Arrell Institute’s Evan Fraser on what keeps him up at night

Important Notice Regarding Information on this Website and Caution Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

The information on this website is intended as general information only and does not constitute an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, product or service in any jurisdiction; nor is it intended to provide investment, financial, legal, accounting, tax or other advice, and such information should not to be relied or acted upon for providing such advice. Nothing herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract, commitment, or investment decision whatsoever. The reader is solely liable for any use of the information contained herein, and neither Royal Bank of Canada (“RBC”, “we”, “our” and “us”) and its subsidiaries nor any of RBC’s affiliates nor any of their respective directors, officers, employees or agents shall be held responsible for any direct or indirect damage arising from the use of any information contained herein by the reader.

From time to time, we make written or oral forward-looking statements within the meaning of certain securities laws, including on this website, in filings with Canadian securities regulators or the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, and in other communications. Such statements are subject to our caution regarding forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements on our website include, but are not limited to, statements relating to our economic and sustainability related objectives, vision, commitments, goals and targets as well as potential events and actions. By their very nature, forward-looking statements require us to make assumptions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties, which give rise to the possibility that our predictions, expectations or conclusions will not prove to be accurate, that our assumptions may not be correct, and that our objectives, vision, commitments, goals and targets will not be achieved. We caution readers not to place undue reliance on these statements as a number of risk factors – many of which are beyond our control and the effects of which can be difficult to predict – could cause our actual results to differ materially from the expectations expressed in such forward-looking statements. ESG (including climate) metrics, data and other information contained on this website are or may be based on assumptions, estimates and judgements. For cautionary statements relating to the information on this website, refer to the “Caution regarding forward-looking statements” and the “Important notice regarding this report” sections in our latest sustainability report, available at: https://www.rbc.com/our-impact/sustainability-reporting/index.html.

Except as required by law, none of RBC nor any of its affiliates undertake to update any information on this website.

All expressions of opinion on this website reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information or expressions of opinion presented herein and they should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. No endorsement of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressly given or implied by RBC or any of its affiliates.

All references to websites are for your information only. The content of any websites referred to on this website, including via website link, and any other websites they refer to are not incorporated by reference in, and do not form part of, this website.  This website is also not intended to make representations as to sustainability-related initiatives of any third parties, whether named herein or otherwise, which may involve information and events that are beyond our control.