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1. Invest in Canada? It starts with relationships
Even in the age of AI and instantaneous communications, the summit showed how coffee chats and private dinners can still prevail. For all the talk about deals, the summit’s success was rooted in dialogue. That started with the guest list, which required a lot of advance visits, and invitations signed personally by the Prime Minister (and delivered by him in many cases). Then there was the location and vibe. Intentionally, the summit was held in one of Toronto’s fanciest hotels, the Four Seasons, and was largely sealed off to the public. Even if some of the participants complained about the chilly temperature inside, the setting set a five-star tone for a country that for years had small-changed its trade and investment outreach. Moreover, it signalled success is welcome in Canada again (a bit like the celebratory tone down the street at the city’s other big September event, the Toronto International Film Festival). And though the sleek plenary room was half empty for some sessions, that was largely because the real action was in the one-on-one meeting that were designed like rounds of speed-dating (again, not unlike TIFF and its pitch rooms). Global investors could use an app to request bilateral meetings, with many gathering at assigned tables in the hotel’s Cafe Boulud, where Swedes, Chinese, Nigerian and Arabs could be seen chatting with CEOs and cabinet ministers. Expect the summit to be repeated, on an annual or biannual basis.
2. American first (still)
For all the efforts to get global investors to Toronto, the summit was still heavily American. Roughly 40% of the attendees were from the U.S., many of them institutional investors and private equity deal makers who came for a quick overnight from New York. That’s just the nature of capital markets. Canada and the U.S. remain deeply integrated. (One of the summit’s celebrated deals was Enbridge’s Westcoast pipeline expansion, financed by the American powerhouses KKR and Apollo Global Management, who were both present.) Away from politics (and geopolitics), a bigger force prevailed at the summit: the shift away from U.S. dollar holdings, as global investors look to diversify their portfolios. They’ve already dialed back from China, for risk reasons, and they’re looking to be less dependent on the U.S. Away from those two markets, which account for two-thirds of global capital, there aren’t many low-risk, high-return opportunities, which is now Canada’s play. While we represent 2% of global GDP, and more of global markets, over the past decade we’ve attracted barely 1% of global investment portfolios. A simple calibration could lead to a doubling of inbound investment, which is one reason it’s risk on, Canada. One Trump cloud did hang over the summit. The uncertainty, and political animosity, over Canada-U.S. trade is on many investor’s minds. One industrialist put it bluntly: no matter how attractive Canadian investment looks right now, his board will not sign off on anything that jeopardizes its U.S. interests.
3. Resources + resourcefulness
No question the world still looks to Canada for natural resources: oil, minerals, LNG, fertilizer, food and more. Mining and metals led the summit’s hit parade, with 55 projects in a “deal book” shared with investors. Some of that, like gold and nickel, has long been a Canadian forte. More novel areas such as lithium, graphite and rare earth elements will be harder to catalyze, because of smaller mines and unique market forces, like the Pentagon’s dominant buying power. Then there’s energy. Eyes lit up when Canada was described as one of only 10 countries that control 85% of the world’s total reserves—and one of just five not in the Middle East. Beyond conventional energy, investors from the Middle East, Europe and Asia are looking to invest in renewables (wind and solar), battery storage and nuclear. All of that requires resourcefulness—chemists and coders, as well as driIlers and pipefitters—that Canada has. And it will require a more resourceful approach to trade, beyond the basics of commodities trading. Big investors are looking for deals that come with strategic buyers, ideally from their own jurisdiction. For much of the world, investment and trade go hand-in-hand and often is driven by a nation’s strategic interests. That includes strategic goals around cutting-edge technologies. The United Arab Emirates, for instance, knows a lot about renewable energy and battery storage, while Europeans know how to build and finance wind farms. They’re keen to bring that expertise to Canada, along with their capital.
4. The best defence is a good offence — and vice-versa
Canada’s military commitments are suddenly an economic advantage, and investors are noticing. Canada has $180 billion in the procurement pipeline, and the money is starting to flow. And it’s not just what Canada’s committing. NATO spending is projected to increase from $1.5 trillion to $3 trillion over the next decade, while the number of people in NATO uniforms is projected to grow by four million. That means a lot more uniforms, a lot more training, a lot more technology—and yes, a lot more weapons. Much of that will be made in Canada, a country that has fluency, quite literally, with many NATO allies. Ottawa’s push for the Defence, Security and Resilience Bank adds to its case for defence capital. Some leading military firms, notably CAE and Bombardier, made their case to investors as to why their hubs, particularly Montreal and Toronto, will need more capital—for new factories, new R&D and new supply chains. Yes, the superpower to the south will continue to push for manufacturing on its own soil, but its labour and supply-chain constraints will mean it, too, will continue to need Canada. Beyond national commitments, there was interest in defence-industrial clusters with global capabilities and ambitions, especially when anchored with leading technologies. Montreal’s aerospace sector, as an example, drew special interest, for its cluster of strong firms, government support and specialized skills. Canada’s strengths in other areas like drones, radar and satellites also drew attention.
5. No infrastructure, no trade
Canada has what the world wants, or so the sales slogan goes. Bigger question: Can we get that stuff to the world? The summit presented a chance to look anew at trade infrastructure. While many Canadians were transfixed by the announcement over private capital for airports, many of the visitors barely noticed. It was so 1990s. Canada will need a lot more of that so-called asset recycling to catch up to the world on a broader mix of trade infrastructure. Expect more to come from seaports and cargo-oriented airports, as well as rail expansion and inland terminals. There could be even bolder moves if the provinces agree to ease up on local transit and utilities. Global investors, who were here for only a day or two, see this moment as a test of Canada’s appetite for economic reform. They’re watching. Away from big-city priorities, far bigger needs remain the Far North and Arctic, where trade infrastructure is coupled with national security, environmental protection and economic reconciliation with Indigenous peoples. Complex infrastructure builds like the Qik port and Grays Bay Road will require major capital commitments, and don’t fit the timelines and risk appetite of many global investors. So, too, will the ambitious proposal to expand the port in Churchill, Manitoba, to ship food and energy overseas through Arctic waters. It’s nation-building stuff that can transcend basic economics, and it will require even more policy and finance innovation from government to help Canadian and foreign investors commit to decades-long efforts.
6. Putting AI in the Canadian pitch
The U.S. has been the super magnet for tech capital, but increasingly Canada is making a pitch for it, too. The Canadian offer is built around AI talent, reliable and affordable power, and transparent (and consistent) rules. The selling points haven’t gone unnoticed. There are currently 194 active data centres in Canada, with an additional 14 under construction, and another 199 projects that have been announced. At the summit, Bell Canada and the province of Saskatchewan announced a quadrupling of capacity for a new data centre outside Regina. The government of Alberta worked the corridors to explain its own approach to data centres, modelled on the massive $13-billion Meta project. Canada has plenty of domestic capital, with government balance sheets and pension funds, but some of the smart global capital that’s been financing data hubs in the U.S., the UAE, and elsewhere, would be helpful, as those investors bring domain knowledge and global access, including for chips. Customers are a different challenge altogether. While Canada is stepping up to the data centre plate, many large enterprises, both public and private, aren’t fully in the game. One major data centre operator said it has been forced to turn to U.S. customers to store data in Canada. That will have to change—fast. While the data centre debate is raging around much of the world, including the US, they’re still being built at a record clip. One big investor was asked how much time Canada has to prove its case. The answer: “Six to nine months.”
7. Global today, local tomorrow
There may not be another G7 country making a bolder pitch for business right now than Canada. But as Canadians know, and global investors are figuring out, the direction of the Canadian economy is as much, if not more, in the hands of the provinces as it is in Ottawa’s. While the two largest provinces, Ontario and Quebec, were noticeably quiet at the summit, Alberta and Saskatchewan worked the hallways aggressively. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, whose province has more than $60 billion in large-scale projects proposed or underway, hosted an Invest in Saskatchewan event to pitch for the next $100 billion. Such provincial engagement is critical. But going more local is proving just as important. Take electricity as an example. It’s a big part of the Canadian pitch, and yet is controlled pretty much by the provinces and often in the hands of local distribution companies. Adding hydro wires requires the consent of local communities, from First Nations to ranchers and small towns. Some investors asked about the capacity of provincial and local governments to engage in major project developments, especially at the speed and scale Ottawa is promising. It’s a question of capacity, and capability, and is about to be tested anew. Some good news: compared to the U.S., Canada is not a hotbed of litigation, which means more room for negotiation and compromise. Same is true for our principles-based approach to regulation compared to Europe’s prescriptive models and all the operating handcuffs they require. Another concern about the provinces is their ability to execute, from regulation to collaboration, on projects.
8. Indigenous risks, and rewards
If global investors have a Canadian blind spot, it’s Indigenous consent. Many have heard stories about projects falling apart over disputes with First Nations, even though those same investors often know little about successes like Enbridge’s Westcoast project, which includes a 12.5% equity stake held by 36 First Nations. The summit allowed for some myths to be dispelled, and more clarity on what Indigenous consent means. For many investors, the idea that Indigenous ownership can signal consent, and also speed up projects, was illuminating. The National Indigenous Loan Guarantee, enabling many communities to raise capital to finance their share of major projects, is now seen globally as a selling feature for Canada. But there’s still a ways to go. One step would be to showcase more Indigenous-led projects for global (and Canadian) investors. That can start with the Prime Minister’s upcoming summit with the Assembly of First Nations in late October, which is a chance to lay out how communities can play a more active role in this new chapter of global capital and Canadian sovereignty. It will be an important test of the new collaboration model for development. Indigenous leaders at the summit know the spotlight is on them, not just from international investors but from their own communities looking for sustainable economic development.
9. Capital follows talent
There were plenty of side events, from dinners at the city’s priciest restaurants to working sessions in corporate offices. I joined one at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs, which brought Canadian policy experts together with some of the international teams not at the main summit. The discussion revolved around Canada as a talent hub, a suitable conversation on the campus of a university often ranked as one of the world’s best. Just a few weeks ago, U of T moved up into 24th on the latest Shanghai Ranking Consultancy’s university rankings, which also includes the University of British Columbia (54th) and McGill University (73rd). I told the Munk audience that talent was a theme that many investors brought up. Capital does indeed follow talent, as many investors pointed out when discussing new build-and-operate models for Canada. They’re looking at pharmaceutical opportunities in Ontario and quantum labs in B.C. Because of the talent bases there, often anchored in those world-class universities. And then there’s all those AI investments. No discussion of them at the summit seemed to miss the point that AI was developed in Canada. In addition to education, Canada’s record for immigration—recent challenges notwithstanding—seemed to be another success factor in the eyes of investors. Many are looking for breakthrough opportunities, and they know those often come from immigrants, as well as from companies that can move human capital, in addition to financial capital, around the world.
10. Canada’s cool. But for how long can we stay hot?
It may not be the cool Britannia wave of the 1990s but Canada is enjoying some global buzz. We’re suddenly the ‘It’ country. Global researchers are moving here. Celebrities like Ryan Reynolds are talking up our brand. And the prime minister is, perhaps, the coolest global leader, since, well, Tony Blair. One of the reasons so many people came to Toronto for the summit was that it is an attractive destination, again. The summit was an unusual burst of Canadian chutzpah. Parked in a luxury hotel, with dinners at Michelin-star restaurants, there was nary an apology about the expense or the exclusiveness. That’s quite a change from only a few years ago. Even the menus were unabashedly loaded with beef. The relaunch of Invest in Canada, led by Dominic Barton, is another signal of global ambition. Investors noted that countries that don’t sell themselves hard often land hard. Canada needs to seize this moment and ramp up the marketing even more. Who knows, it may even be time for a Canadian edition of Love, Actually, although for now, Heated Rivalry is doing plenty for our cool quotient.
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