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Local real estate boards’ early results for April continue to show to mixed picture across Canada’s housing markets, but it’s clear more sellers are entering the market.
Several markets saw home resales increase from March (Toronto, Ottawa, Calgary, Edmonton and the Fraser Valley for example), but activity was still weaker than a year ago for the most part.
Other markets (including Vancouver, Montreal, Regina and Saskatoon) continued to experience further modest drops in transactions.
Meanwhile, new listings increased in April from March in most areas that have reported to date. This has led to record levels in some cases, for example in Montreal and Ottawa, which is reshaping supply and demand conditions.
Buyers still hold stronger negotiating power in Vancouver and Toronto with ample inventory, sustaining ongoing price corrections in Canada’s least affordable areas. That power is shared more evenly with sellers in most other markets, resulting in steadily appreciating home values in parts of the Prairies, Quebec and Atlantic Canada.
The all-important spring season has yet to deliver a clear boost to housing demand across the country.
Confidence is still lacking with buyers worrying about many things from the trade war to major geopolitical conflict, a tough job market and strained affordability in parts of the country.
Odds are the picture will stay mixed until much of the economic uncertainty lifts.
Toronto area: Regaining its footing?
Make that two gains in a row for home resales in the Toronto area—1.3% month-over-month in March and 6.1% in April. They could be early signs of stabilization after a 21% slide in the prior five months.
If true, the road to recovery will be a long one. Transactions in April were 36% below the 10-year average, highlighting considerable distance from more “normal” levels.
Meanwhile, possible hints that home values are steadying seem tenuous. Toronto’s MLS Home Price Index was unchanged in April from March on a seasonally adjusted basis, but the general context of still-soft demand, strained affordability, shaky confidence, ample inventory and stiff seller competition isn’t supportive yet.
The index remained lower from a year ago (-6.5%) for the 25th consecutive month. Condo apartments led the decline (-8.9%), especially in York (-11.7%) and Durham (-11.6%) regions, though all segments recorded drops including single family homes (-6.2%).
We see these downtrends persisting until inventory is drawn more meaningfully lower later this year.
Montreal area: Growing supply, levelled demand takes pressure off prices
Sellers are the centre of attention in the Montreal area’s housing market this spring. They entered en masse in April, driving up new listings to a record high.
The influx hasn’t spurred more buyers to make a move, though. We estimate home resales fell more than 4% in April from March seasonally adjusted.
Activity has largely stalled over the past year after recovering steadily in 2023 and 2024 amid increased economic uncertainty and deteriorating affordability.
Growing supply and levelled demand are gradually easing upward pressure on home values. The rate of appreciation is moderating across the board with median prices now up just 0.2% year-over-year for condos, and 3.2% for single-family homes. They were up 2.4% and 6.5%, respectively, just two months ago.
The slower pace for condos reflects a stronger 21% increase in active listings in the last 12 months. Single-family home listings grew by a more subdued 9%.
Vancouver area: Downturn endures
April brought little indication the Vancouver area is about to overcome its current predicament. Home resales remain generally depressed, and values continue to broadly weaken.
In fact, we estimate seasonally adjusted transactions fell further (albeit slightly) in April from March.
Affordability and confidence issues remain major obstacles holding back demand, and more ample inventory fuels seller competition.
Intensity of that competition likely went up a notch with new listings rising close to 10% from March (based on our seasonal adjustment) after three successive declines.
Vancouver’s MLS HPI steepened its downtrend—falling 6.9% year-over-year—the fastest rate since spring 2023 when spiking interest rates caused an abrupt cooling of the market.
We see the current supply and demand imbalance driving home values even lower in coming months.
Calgary: Gravitating toward more sustainable levels
We estimate April activity ticked higher from March (seasonally adjusted) in Calgary, though this didn’t alter the slow two years-long declining trend.
The market continues to move toward more sustainable levels after rocketing to all-time highs during the pandemic. Resales are still 5.7% off a year ago.
Condos have been under the most pressure in the past 12 months with transactions and the benchmark price falling 27% and 8.9%, respectively.
This compares to much smaller declines of 0.3% and 2.7%, respectively, for detached homes.
Moreover, inventory of detached homes for sale has begun to shrink (down 1.6% from a year ago), which could stabilize prices if it persists.
Condo inventory, however, continues to grow (2.8%), suggesting the price correction will likely get deeper in this category near term.
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About the author:
Robert Hogue is the Assistant Chief Economist responsible for providing analysis and forecasts on the Canadian housing market and provincial economies.
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