EN 
Canada - EN
Canada’s population growth is stalling this year, aligning with the federal government’s 2024 immigration strategy that targeted a 20% reduction in permanent residents in 2025 and aims to reduce non-permanent residents from more than 7% of the population to 5% by 2027.
The plan set ambitious assumptions about the outflow of non-permanent residents, but population statistics in Q1 suggest Canada is broadly on track to reach those targets. Nearly 210,000 non-permanent residents either left the country or transitioned to permanent residency in Q1—representing 17% of the 1.3 million annual outflow target. Inflows also appear to be consistent with new immigration targets as 18% of the target total of incoming non-permanent residents for 2025 (816,900) arrived in Q1—the lowest quarterly inflow in three years.
The first quarter also saw the largest reduction of non-permanent residents in Canada on net outside of the pandemic. The pullback came almost entirely from study permit holders (-109,500 year-over-year), while asylum claimants continued to rise, up 106,400 y/y.
Non-permanent residents now make up 7.1% of Canada’s population—down from 7.4% in Q4 2024. British Columbia (9.1%), and Ontario (8.1%) still had disproportionately high concentrations in Q2. Ontario experienced the most significant adjustment, shedding over 23,000 non-permanent residents from last year, while Quebec (61,100), the Prairies (31,100), and B.C. (8,700) continued to post gains.
Permanent resident arrivals have fallen in Q1 as well (-16,800 y/y seasonally adjusted), bringing Canada’s quarter-over-quarter annualized population growth down to just 0.8% seasonally adjusted—less than half the rate over the last two years and slightly lower than pre-pandemic norms. Of the 395,000 new permanent residents allotted for 2025, nearly quarter (96,800) arrived or were granted status in Q1.
Consistent with our expectations, population growth is slowing most in Ontario and B.C. as the number of permanent and non-permanent residents decline. These provinces, which depend heavily on international arrivals to offset interprovincial outflows, are experiencing some the most significant demographic adjustments.
Recent permanent and non-permanent resident estimates confirm our expectations for population growth to slow materially over the next two years, which will have implications for economic growth. Canada’s robust population growth for years has concealed a concerning productivity deficit. We expect the slowdown in immigration combined with emerging trade challenges will dampen growth in Canada’s economy in the coming quarters.
Rachel Battaglia is an economist at RBC. She is a member of the Macro and Regional Analysis Group, providing analysis for the provincial macroeconomic outlook.
This article is intended as general information only and is not to be relied upon as constituting legal, financial or other professional advice. The reader is solely liable for any use of the information contained in this document and Royal Bank of Canada (“RBC”) nor any of its affiliates nor any of their respective directors, officers, employees or agents shall be held responsible for any direct or indirect damages arising from the use of this document by the reader. A professional advisor should be consulted regarding your specific situation. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. No endorsement of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressly given or implied by Royal Bank of Canada or any of its affiliates.
This document may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of certain securities laws, which are subject to RBC’s caution regarding forward-looking statements. ESG (including climate) metrics, data and other information contained on this website are or may be based on assumptions, estimates and judgements. For cautionary statements relating to the information on this website, refer to the “Caution regarding forward-looking statements” and the “Important notice regarding this document” sections in our latest climate report or sustainability report, available at: https://www.rbc.com/community-social-impact/reporting-performance/index.html. Except as required by law, none of RBC nor any of its affiliates undertake to update any information in this document.