The Trade Zone

Also in this edition: The Power of Siberia 2 and implications for Canada 

A Canadian first

A year into Prime Minister Mark Carney’s trade diversification push, global infrastructure investors are registering the signal. The Global Infrastructure Investor Association (GIIA) Spring 2026 survey—covering leading infrastructure funds across North America and Europe—ranks Canada #1 for investment attractiveness, ahead of the U.S. and Germany. It’s the first time Canada has finished atop the annual survey. Here are the highlights: 

• Global infrastructure fundraising hit a record US$289 billion in 2025. LP allocations are rising further in 2026—but capital is concentrating, with the top 10 managers capturing 40% of total commitments. Commitments above $2 billion are increasing most sharply. 

• Battery storage topped North American sector rankings for the first time. Regulated gas improved materially. Geopolitical risk is now priced in individual transactions: supply chain exposure, policy durability, and counterparty strength are deal-level considerations. 

• Canada’s pension funds—CPPIB, OMERS, Ontario Teachers’, PSP—sit at the intersection of that capital and those relationships. Their sovereign co-investment networks across Asia, the Gulf, and Europe are the intermediation layer global allocators. 

The world is noticing the shift in Canada, but it wants to see evidence of intent and action. The federal government will get a chance to bolster the case for Canada at the Canada Investment Summit in Toronto this September. 

— Shaz Merwat, Energy Policy Lead 

Look what’s trending 

In ‘Surging gold prices, inroads to foreign markets cushion Canada’s exports,’ RBC Economics notes that ‘gold exports to the U.K. surged by a nominal $17 billion, or 76%, in 2025—making gold Canada’s second-largest export after crude oil—significantly cushioning declines in other goods.’ 

Chokepoint: Power of Siberia 2 Stuck on Price 

It wasn’t a headline agenda item of the Xi–Putin summit this week, but the Power of Siberia 2, a long-stalled pipeline that would carry Russian natural gas east to China, inched back into the spotlight as a result of the two leaders high-profile meeting. 

What is being proposed? 

A 2,600-kilometre pipeline carrying up to 50 billion cubic metre per year of gas, nearly on par with the capacity of the now idle Nord Stream 1, from Siberia’s Yamal gas fields through Mongolia to China.  

What’s the holdup? 

For one thing, price. Beijing wants roughly 12–13 cents per cubic metre, near Russia’s domestic rate; Moscow wants double. The summit ended with warm words but no price or project timeline. 

If it did come to be, how would it alter Chinese demand for non-Russian imports? 

An overland gas pipeline sidesteps maritime chokepoints China’s seaborne LNG must run through, such as the Strait of Hormuz, where tensions have left oil and gas tankers stranded for weeks (two Chinese tankers passed through Hormuz this week). A direct pipeline link to Russia would displace gas that China might otherwise pull from global LNG markets, with potential downward pressure on prices. 

Implications for Canada’s LNG ambitions? 

According to Robert Johnston at the University of Calgary, Canada’s gas story lies closer to home. More Russian gas east would push U.S. and Qatar LNG cargoes toward the same Asian buyers Canada is courting, impacting prices as LNG Canada’s second phase ramps up. But with an image of geopolitical stability and strong emissions credentials (Russian gas has an emissions intensity 50% higher than Canada’s gas) the decisive variable for Canada’s LNG ambitions–the rollout of major projects–is domestic execution rather than economics.

Additionally, energy importers are increasingly wary of relying heavily on one geography, especially after Russia weaponized natural gas exports to pressure Europe as it ramped up its war in Ukraine, and Middle East suppliers are being hemmed in by the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Canada offers largely apolitical, stable supply in a fragmented world with disrupted energy trade flows.

— Vivan Sorab, Clean Tech Lead 

The week that was

IEA warns oil markets nearing “red zone” by late summer 

• International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol warned oil markets could enter a “red zone” by July-August, with 14 million barrels per day disrupted, inventories falling, and no meaningful new Middle East supply entering the market amid the Iran crisis.  

China’s renminbi payment system sees record surge

• China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) processed a record average daily value of RMB920.5 billion (US$135.7 billion) in March, briefly peaking at RMB1.22 trillion and nearly 42,000 transactions in a single day representing a surge in energy trade outside the U.S. dollar system.

Brussels advances implementation of U.S. trade pact 

• EU lawmakers and member states reached a provisional agreement to implement last year’s U.S.-EU trade arrangement, including safeguards allowing Brussels to suspend tariff reductions if Washington maintains steel and aluminum duties above agreed levels beyond 2026.   

EU approves expanded foreign investment screening powers 

• The European Parliament approved new foreign investment screening rules covering sectors including AI, semiconductors, quantum, aerospace, energy, and critical infrastructure, broadening scrutiny over third-country investment across the bloc.

Ottawa and Nunavut launch tariff-response workforce program 

• The governments announced more than $1.5 million in funding for marine-sector training and employment supports tied to tariff-related economic disruption.  

Manitoba opens trade office in India amid diversification push 

• Manitoba announced plans to establish a trade office in India as provinces continue pursuing direct commercial relationships abroad and reducing reliance on the U.S. market.

—Thomas Ashcroft, Global Policy Lead