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This month marks the 100th anniversary of the publication of The Great Gatsby, the F. Scott Fitzgerald novel set in the Jazz Age when American wealth and power soared, and yet the characters clung to the vestiges of an earlier golden age.
Sound familiar?
A couple of weekends ago, I spent some time not far from the mythical Gatsby home, at another estate left by the Whitney dynasty to a foundation that the family created to support peace and sustainability. About three dozen policy leaders from the U.S., Europe and Canada gathered at Greentree, on Long Island, to discuss how business can adapt to Donald Trump’s world—and his promise of a new golden age—and also shape it.
Some of my takeaways from our discussions, which began as global markets began a sharp decline:
1. China will become the defining force of this Administration, which may need to consider “managed interdependence.”
2. The U.S. dollar remains an enormous challenge to America’s trade competitiveness and will continue to be overpriced as long as Washington runs enormous deficits.
3. Trump Republicans hold a special dislike and distrust of Europe that will be hard to resolve, and a peculiar like for Britain.
4. Tariffs won’t fix underlying U.S. frustrations, which are rooted in long-term labour productivity and real wage stagnation.
5. While trade is being blamed for middle America’s economic malaise, technology has caused more job displacement over the last 25 years.
6. America, and others, need to focus on training and reskilling to improve wages and incomes in the coming age of AI.
7. Tariff execution will be a challenge if Trump reaches (or has reached) a political high-water mark, as he will have to spend more energy on opposition forces, including more than 100 lawsuits.
8. Major businesses in Europe and North America need to come together in a more united way to project the case for more economically rational policies.
Read the speech John delivered at the conference here:
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