Economics

Data in the U.S. reinforces our “stagflation lite” view as early signs of tariff impacts have emerged with labour market weakness.

High development and building costs in Ontario, and substantial inventory are weighing on the initiation of new projects.

Headline CPI was still biased lower by the removal of consumer carbon tax in April, but slowing to 1.7% from 1.9% in June.

Home resales picked up again in July and balanced market conditions have emerged in more areas.

We forecast another weak housing starts print as single-family permit issuance was exceptionally weak in June.

Our expectation is that current tariff rates are unsustainable and will start to be reduced as we approach 2026.

Another month of substantial trade related news from the U.S. didn’t move the needle on our forecasts.

RBC cardholder spending in Canada remained resilient in July with core retail sales up 1.1%, reversing June’s contraction.