Economy and Markets

U.S. trade agreements are trimming downside growth risks, but the average U.S. tariff rate is still the highest since the 1930s.

We have downgraded our U.S. growth outlook, and expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times in 2025 with another three cuts in 2026.

The threat of significant international trade disruptions is overshadowing what would have been a substantially improving Canadian economy.

The threat of significant international trade disruptions is overshadowing what would have been a substantially improving Canadian economy.

Trade risks are set to wipe out early signs of economic recovery in Canada—we expect gross domestic product growth to slow and the unemployment rate to edge higher in coming quarters.

U.S. President Donald Trump backed away from imposing blanket tariffs on Canada at the 11th hour last week, but trade risks are not going away.

With the exceptional run of U.S. data continuing, we no longer expect any further rate cuts from the Fed in 2025.

Canada’s economic growth challenges are expected to ease as the Bank of Canada continues to lower interest rates—but not right away, and longer-run challenges remain.

International trade risks are back in focus as the incoming Trump administration prepares to take office—but for now, economic data is tracking broadly in line with prior expectations.

U.S. government spending will continue to add to growth, but it may come at the cost of higher inflation, interest rates, and less savings for the future.

The stronger-than-expected September U.S. payroll report left the economy on track for the historically elusive ‘soft landing’ and reduced urgency for the Fed to repeat a 50-basis point rate cut.

The Canadian economy has continued to underperform global peers with declines in per-capita output in seven of the last eight quarters.