Climate Crunch

➔ New York Climate Week shrugs off U.S. climate retreat

➔ Nova Scotia is going big on wind power

➔ Our Unearthing Value report explores natural capital’s role in pro-growth agendas

Hot takes

➔ New York Climate Week powers on despite clouds over clean energy. The annual event, underway this week, is featuring more than 1,000 sessions across the city, from Arctic to sustainable fashion, adaptation to critical minerals. The event comes amid a major reversal by Washington on several clean energy policies. But the record number of programs and more than 100,000 attendees suggest the push for a greener and cleaner energy transition may not have waned just yet.

➔ Nova Scotia’s Wind West proposal is gaining momentum. The province’s proposed $60-billion, 5,000-megawatt development could position Atlantic Canada as a clean energy hub. Ottawa also believes the proposal is a major projects contender, and is gauging investor interest that could spur renewable power expansion on the East Coast. But, as the strategic plan itself states, “it won’t be easy,” with regulatory challenges and cost competitiveness issues to overcome. Nova Scotia is seeking federal support through investment tax credits and low-interest loans from the Canada Infrastructure Bank and support for the Mi’kmaq Nation to purchase equity in the project. The slew of support measures could lower the project costs to $170 per megawatt hour, compared to the average energy rate of $51.86 per megawatt hour Nova Scotians paid last year.

➔ Australia is pitching itself as a carbon storage hub. Take note, Canada. The nation Down Under is leveraging its geological advantages to become a carbon storage hub for Asia-Pacific. It’s part of Australia’s new Net Zero plan, out last week, that pledges to cut carbon emissions by at least 62% compared to 2005 levels over the next decade. The focus on carbon removal and investment in the technology aims to offset the country’s gas and mining emissions.

A climate policy reset

Mark Carney’s forthcoming “Carbon Competitiveness Strategy” is an interesting combination of words. Unlike Trudeau-era climate policy labels that centred on carbon reduction—such as “Emissions Reduction Plan” and “Oil & Gas Emissions Cap”—the current Prime Minister’s word choice signals a marked shift on how carbon (its reduction, storage and low-emissions production) can advance Canada’s economy.

As Canada recalibrates its climate policies, here are five questions we are thinking about:

• What’s the future of the industrial carbon pricing system? Alberta’s freeze on its industrial carbon tax price for 2026 and Saskatchewan’s earlier repeal challenges federal rules. Carney will need to clarify how federal design can sustain investment on clean technologies while managing provincial divergence.

• How should a Border Carbon Adjustment be managed? Ottawa is weighing carbon tariffs to protect domestic industry from lower-cost, high-emitting imports. But with U.S. trade tensions simmering, its implementation may rankle Washington. As our economist Farhad Panahov wrote in a recent report: “Major discrepancies in carbon pricing with its trading partners can impact Canada’s competitiveness at a time of a structural global upheaval.” Is it even feasible? Could the BCA be a carveout focused on China and other non-NATO trading partners?

• What’s the future of the oil and gas emissions cap? Scrap, maintain or reimagine? A decision here could be critical for Canada’s energy sector.

• What will it take to revive clean-tech funding? Several investment tax credits are already in place. What else can Ottawa do to revive flagging funding in Canadian cleantech.

• Can we meet Paris targets? The Carney government says it remains committed to its 2030 climate goals. But the Canadian Climate Institute recently estimated that the country is off-track. What can Carney, a former UN Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance, do to turn the trajectory around?

Clean tech and trends

➔ A new electric smart heat pump was rolled out in Canada. Vancouver-based startup Jetson’s Air can be plugged into existing ducts and operate in temperatures as low as -30C. An AI-powered energy manager analyzes weather, energy use, and indoor air quality to save energy—and money. CEO Stephen Lake, who led the smart glasses startup North that was acquired by Google in 2022, says it’s the software that will unlock efficiency gains. It could also be pivotal in making a dent in emissions: Heating emissions account for 13% of energy-related GHG emissions in Canada.

➔ A  McGill University lab spinoff secured $3.5 million from investors for a pilot project to build an iron-based energy storage. If successful, it could dramatically cut diesel and other fossil fuel consumption in heavy industry.

➔ European Union members failed to agree on a binding climate plan ahead of a UN general assembly meeting this week. They instead signed a “statement of intent” to cut emissions by as much as 72.5% by 2035.

➔ Robert Redford, who died last week, was not only a Hollywood icon, but also an activist with a knack of telling stories about a changing climate. His brainchild the Sundance Film Festival showcased several movies on the environment, while his non-profit Redford Centre backed 60 movies on climate action (or inaction), of which 11 were picked up by streaming services.

Nature

Unearthing value

More than $78 trillion  of the global economy—roughly half of total GDP—is highly to moderately dependent on nature. Yet, national GDPs count nature only after it is extracted—fish, grain, timber–while mostly ignoring ecosystem services from nature. In our new report, Director of Agriculture Policy Lisa Ashton, writes about how leveraging natural capital can boost pro-growth strategies.

LSome key takeaways from the report:

• Natural capital remains an underused economic engine. The GDP of Canada’s nature-based sectors, including forestry, agriculture, mining and fisheries, grew 0.3% slower, year-over-year, compared to the rest of the economy over the past quarter century. A similar trend is observed in the United States and the United Kingdom.

• Ignoring nature threatens prosperity. More than half of the world’s economy, roughly $78 trillion, depends on nature, from food to tourism to construction. Canada, the U.S. and the U.K. are looking to build back their economies, yet their nature base in which their economies rely on for long-term growth is depleting.

• There is a generational opportunity to leverage natural capital wealth through nation-building agendas. Countries that track and grow natural capital alongside GDP can unlock growth and attract global investors hunting for investable natural capital projects. With finance mobilizing to close the nature finance gap, demand is rising—and an estimated $580 billion is required annually by 2030 and it will be nearly $940 billion by 2050.

• Private capital is critical to scaling. And yet, governments currently account for 82% ($222 billion) of nature finance. That’s because the private sector needs stronger policy signals and assurance that their investments will generate returns to help close the gap.

• Nature’s place in finance and environmental markets is growing but remains underrepresented. Nature is a small segment of sustainability finance. In 2025, nature-based carbon offsets represent 13% of voluntary carbon credits to-date, but hold more than half of the annual potential of carbon credit creation.

• Policy integration, AI, and…yes, accounting can get nature on the balance sheet and growth agenda. For Canada, a timely test for all three is the implementation of the Critical Minerals Strategy and emerging major mining projects.Starting with integrating Indigenous values and knowledge systems in natural capital accounting frameworks.

The Institute in action

• Today, Lisa Ashton is presenting her report  Unearthing Value on the nature economy and moderating a panel with Nature United at the New York Climate Week.

• This week, the team hosted a delegation of U.S. congressional and embassy officials on the possibilities for enhanced cooperation between the U.S. and Canada on critical minerals.