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July spending snapshot: RBC cardholder spending in Canada remained resilient in July with core retail sales (excluding autos and gasoline) up 1.1%, reversing June’s contraction.
The monthly numbers are volatile, but that leaves the three-month rolling average 0.9% higher. Total RBC cardholder spending1 was 2% above the Q2 average, marking a healthy start to the third quarter.
We continue to expect household consumer spending growth will slow in Q3 with international trade disruptions remaining a threat to the outlook. But, we expect it to continue growing at a moderate rate for the remainder of 2025 as labour markets show signs of stabilizing and consumer confidence edges higher from record lows in the spring.
Mixed picture with strength beyond autos and fuel
Spending trends remained relatively firm across most spending categories. Travel posted a solid rebound after a subdued Q2, and entertainment and arts continued to build on earlier momentum.
Spending on gasoline declined, reflecting lower prices at the pumps as global oil prices fell after a jump in June.
Other industry reports are pointing to a tick lower in auto sales. Sales were slightly lower on a three-month rolling basis.
The removal of the consumer carbon tax in April, along with the earlier GST holiday, continued to ripple through spending patterns.
Improving sentiment tempered by trade-related caution
Canadian consumer confidence, measured by the Conference Board of Canada, continued to recover gradually after plunging to a historic low in March.
Ongoing uncertainty around global trade is still shaping how some households spend even though sentiment has improved. The Bank of Canada’s latest Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations found that more than 60% of respondents plan to increase spending on Canadian-made products, and roughly one-third intend to vacation within Canada.
Spotlight on spending: Discretionary categories lead July gains
Discretionary categories outperformed in July with discretionary services and goods spending rising meaningfully compared to average levels in Q2, while essentials were little changed.
Within discretionary services, restaurant spending was 1.8% higher than the Q2 average, extending its strong momentum. Household construction spending also gained ground, consistent with early housing market data showing further recovery in home resales.
Essential spending, such as groceries, posted a modest increase in July, and grew at a slower pace than earlier in Q2.
Regional gains uneven as Ontario and Manitoba show strength
Spending patterns were mixed across the provinces with growth in July exceeding the Q2 average only in Ontario and Manitoba—highlighting pockets of regional strength.
Quebec posted a modest gain, slowing from Q2. Saskatchewan saw a decline from the previous quarter, while New Brunswick also recorded modest growth that was weaker than earlier in the year.
Abbey Xu is an economist at RBC. She is a member of the macroeconomic analysis group, focusing on macroeconomic forecasting models and providing timely analysis and updates on economic trends.
By Carrie Freestone
RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewelers, among others. We exclude purely financial transactions such as cash advances and insurance from spending.
We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas using a 7 day rolling sample starting January 1st of each year that is indexed to pre-covid levels which are calculated as the average spending for the month of February 2020. To examine the impact of seasonal factors, we also show each’s year spending profile which depicts monthly trends in spending. Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization.
Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.
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