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May spending snapshot: Canadian consumer spending held up in May—building on April’s momentum—despite cooling economic growth, according to RBC’s cardholder transactions.
Our tracking shows a 0.7% increase in total retail sales in May, and spending was firmer up 1.1% excluding auto sales. Auto purchases have cooled in recent months following a surge in March, but underlying consumer demand appears to be resilient across most categories.
Statistics Canada’s advance estimate for April’s retail sales (pre-tax excluding the impact from the removal of the consumer carbon tax) showed a 0.5% month-over-month increase, consistent with the underlying strength we’ve seen in our own spending data.
Core spending highlights strength beyond autos and fuel
One new lens we’re adding this month is core retail sales, which strips out more volatile components like auto and gasoline spending. This measure climbed by 1.2% in May by our count, reflecting solid momentum in broader household purchases.
Gasoline spending, while volatile in recent months, rose slightly by 0.3% in May following a sharp decline in April that coincided with the removal of the consumer carbon tax. Interestingly, excluding gasoline spending revealed slightly stronger retail sales growth overall—suggesting robust activity in other categories.
Motor vehicle sales, which surged in March amid concerns about U.S. auto tariffs, have since moderated. Our cardholder data does not capture a large portion of auto sales, but our in-house seasonally adjusted estimates based on industry reports point to a 2.6% decline in April car sales followed by another 2.8% drop in May. Still, two consecutive declines weren’t enough to fully offset the strength seen in March, pointing to a gradual normalization in auto purchases rather than a sharp reversal.
Spotlight on spending: Discretionary services lead gains
Overall spending remained solid in May, but key categories showed signs of cooling compared to April. Discretionary services continued to lead with spending rising 1.2% from April. Essentials followed closely up 1.1%, while discretionary goods posted a more modest gain of 0.5%. Despite the slower momentum, all three categories remained in positive territory, pointing to continued underlying strength in household demand.
Within discretionary goods, clothing led the gains rising in May. The increase likely reflects promotional sales and shifting consumer demand heading into the summer season. In contrast, building materials saw the sharpest pullback falling 1.5%, aligning with broader signs of slowing housing-related activity.
Travel spending picks up after extended slump
Meanwhile, travel spending posted its first monthly increase of the year, rising 4.7% in May after several months of cumulative declines.
The rebound likely reflects more Canadians opting to travel domestically with international travel—particularly to the U.S.—still subdued. As we’ve noted, when Canadians stay closer to home, it tends to support local tourism and hospitality industries.
Most provinces see gains led by Maritime provinces
Consumer spending increased in nearly all provinces in May, with notable strength in the maritime provinces.
Ontario, British Columbia, and Quebec experienced slower growth in spending during the month, though all three provinces managed to maintain growth. In British Columbia, the household and construction category saw the largest decline. Meanwhile, spending on toys in Ontario, and entertainment and art in Quebec, experienced notable pullbacks.
While some of the month-to-month fluctuations can be attributed to sample volatility in smaller provinces, the broader trend highlights widespread resilience in household spending across the country.
About the Author:
Abbey Xu is an economist at RBC. She is a member of the macroeconomic analysis group, focusing on macroeconomic forecasting models and providing timely analysis and updates on economic trends.
By Carrie Freestone
RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewelers, among others. We exclude purely financial transactions such as cash advances and insurance from spending.
We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas using a 7 day rolling sample starting January 1st of each year that is indexed to pre-covid levels which are calculated as the average spending for the month of February 2020. To examine the impact of seasonal factors, we also show each’s year spending profile which depicts monthly trends in spending. Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization.
Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.
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