EN 
By Abbey Xu and Rachel Battaglia
November spending snapshot: RBC cardholder purchases in Canada continued to firm as we moved into the holiday shopping season. Core retail sales rose 1.1% on a three-month rolling average in November, up 0.5% from October.
Early signs for Q4 remain positive with spending momentum holding up despite elevated borrowing costs, and still cautious consumer sentiment.
The critical holiday shopping period ramped up with sales of discretionary goods jumping over the Black Friday to Cyber Monday weekend.
Overall, the mix of spending points to Canadian households remaining selective, but responsive, to discount driven sales.
Clothing and travel strengthen while everyday spending lags
All spending categories saw positive growth, but momentum weakened in grocery, entertainment, and arts. Overall, it suggests households continued to prioritize non-essential categories, while keeping everyday needs more contained.
Apparel and related categories posted a notable lift in November after two months of slower growth. Promotional sales around Black Friday and Cyber Monday appear to have encouraged households to stock up ahead of the holiday period. Travel also notched a solid gain following a weaker October.
In contrast, spending on entertainment and arts cooled after a strong boost earlier in the fall, thanks to activity related to the Blue Jays postseason run.
Strong Black Friday weekend sales kicked off holiday shopping
Holiday shoppers returned for the deals this year. Total spending on retail merchandise (excluding gasoline) was up 7.5% from Black Friday to Cyber Monday compared to last year, led by the fastest growth in discretionary goods spending in three years.
Spending on apparel, footwear, and accessories lead gains in discretionary goods. Spending on discretionary services also rose, but by less than the Black Friday weekend a year ago, and growth in essentials’ spending also slowed.
This reflects a value conscious consumer, who remains selective, but is willing to spend when the price is right.
Discretionary goods remain main driver of November spending
Discretionary goods continued to show solid momentum on a three-month rolling average in November. This aligns with the stronger performance seen during the Black Friday and Cyber Monday period, when households are more responsive to promotions and seasonal sales.
Discretionary services and essentials also posted positive growth on a three-month rolling average, though growth in these categories has decelerated from earlier in the year.
Regional divergence: Central provinces lead while Atlantic lags
British Columbia, Ontario, and Manitoba all recorded notable spending growth in November on a three-month rolling average, closely mirroring national consumption trends.
These provinces demonstrated particularly robust growth in clothing spending, similar to the national level.
In contrast, the Atlantic provinces continued to experience declining spending growth, extending October’s downward momentum. Other provinces including Quebec and Saskatchewan continued to post moderate spending growth like the previous month.
About the Authors
Abbey Xu is an economist at RBC. She is a member of the macroeconomic analysis group, focusing on macroeconomic forecasting models and providing timely analysis and updates on economic trends.
Rachel Battaglia is an economist at RBC, providing analysis and forecasts for consumer spending trends and provincial economies.
By Carrie Freestone
RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewelers, among others. We exclude purely financial transactions such as cash advances and insurance from spending.
We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas using a 7 day rolling sample starting January 1st of each year that is indexed to pre-covid levels which are calculated as the average spending for the month of February 2020. To examine the impact of seasonal factors, we also show each’s year spending profile which depicts monthly trends in spending. Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization.
Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.
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