EN 
The ride has been bumpy this fall, but Canada’s housing market is still on the road to recovery.
Monthly gains in resales and prices in October, and signs supply is stabilizing in parts of the country represents progress after a setback in September.
Interest rate cuts, no doubt, contributed to an uptick in demand last month, though the stage had been set by rebuilding confidence since summer as worst-case economic scenarios faded.
The picture remains mixed, however, with Ontario and British Columbia contending with generally soft conditions amid an abundant inventory of homes for sale, while most other regions are running hotter with tight supply and demand.
Fragile momentum returns
Home resales in Canada rebounded 0.9% in October from September after declining 1.7% the previous month. The latest advance consolidated earlier gains with resales now roughly 12% above the trade anxiety-induced low in March.
The recovery is uneven across regions, but it suggests buyers are generally responding to improving conditions.
Rate cuts ease affordability pressures
The Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts in September and October further improved affordability for buyers, lowering ownership costs at a time when home values have moderated in parts of the country in the past year.
Rate reductions will likely to draw more buyers to the market, unlocking some pent-up demand accumulated during the period of elevated borrowing costs.
Supply is stabilizing
A two-year buildup in inventory has kept the supply pipeline robust in some regions with Ontario and B.C. particularly well-stocked. Homes for sale in these provinces reached decade highs this spring.
However, new listings have begun to moderate, falling 1.4% seasonally adjusted nationally in October from September.
Notably, active listings in Ontario and B.C. appear to have stabilized since summer, suggesting risk of severe oversupply is contained in markets like Toronto and Vancouver.
Price corrections pause in Ontario, B.C. and Alberta
Moderating new listings coincides with tentative reprieve from the persistent post-pandemic price corrections that marked 2024 and early 2025.
In Ontario, including the Greater Toronto Area, the MLS Home Price Index edged higher in October, while B.C. saw its second consecutive month of stability. Similarly, Alberta saw prices pick up in October after six months of declines.
We think it’s still too early to determine whether they represent a sustained inflection point, or a temporary pause in a broader downtrend.
Regional divergence persists
Other regions remain firmly seller friendly. Manitoba, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland and Labrador continue to see home values trend higher, supported by relatively tight inventory and sustained demand.
Quebec’s markets are, particularly, heated. Quebec City posted the largest annual gain in the MLS HPI among tracked areas in October at 17.5%, while Central Quebec (12.8%), Estrie (12.2%), and Mauricie (11.2%) recorded similar notable appreciation.
Montreal has also shown solid momentum with the index climbing 6.7% annually.
The national composite MLS HPI rose 0.2% in October from September—only the second monthly gain since January. But, it remains down 3% from a year ago with soft prices persisting in Ontario and B.C.
Gradual recovery ahead
Developments this fall appear broadly consistent with expectations for a gradual recovery in 2026, supported by lower interest rates, improving job prospects, and rebuilding confidence.
However, several factors will constrain the pace of recovery including affordability challenges in several major markets, and reduced immigration demand from historical trends.
Additionally, persisting economic uncertainty and the risk trade war escalation could generate some volatility and disrupt the recovery.
Robert Hogue is the Assistant Chief Economist responsible for providing analysis and forecasts on the Canadian housing market and provincial economies.
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