Canadian Analysis

The first month of the long-awaited spring season has provided mixed signals across Canada. Resale transactions picked up in some markets (Toronto, Hamilton, Saskatoon and Regina for example) but fell others (including Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Calgary and Edmonton). Inventories both stabilized (Toronto) and continued to rise (Montreal and Edmonton).

And price developments were largely in line with recent trends: home values continued to fall in British Columbia, Alberta and Ontario, while they rose further in Quebec and parts of the Prairies and Atlantic Canada.

What’s clear, though, is the arrival of milder weather in March has yet to boost confidence. Buyers still worry about many things from a trade war to a major geopolitical conflict, a tough job market and strained affordability in parts of the country.

Many of them opt to take their time to decide. And with home prices declining in several major markets and wider selection to choose from, time is on their side.

Odds are the picture will stay mixed until much of the economic uncertainty has lifted.

Recently announced tax rebates on new home purchases, however, could spark sales of newly built homes in shorter order.

Toronto area: Early stabilization signs emerge

The start of the spring house hunting season brought signs of market stabilization in the Toronto area.

Home resales rose 1.4% in March from February seasonally adjusted, marking the first monthly rise in five months. Importantly, active listings declined 8% from a year ago. This was second straight drop after a steady build-up in the past three years boosted inventory to decades-high late last year.

For now, the market continues to be soft with plenty of homes for sale sustaining intense seller competition, and wary buyers taking their time to make decisions.

Home values keep falling as a result. The GTA’s MLS Home Price Index dipped for the 10th consecutive month in March, down 0.6% from February and 7.4% from a year ago.

We see this downward trend persisting near term amid strained (albeit improving) affordability, tariff-related economic uncertainty, challenging job prospects, lower immigration, and abundant inventory.

Montreal area: Supply and demand are rebalancing

The recovery remains stalled with resales barely budging in the past two months in the Montreal area.

We estimate transactions edged 0.4% lower in March from February seasonally adjusted on the heels of a smaller 0.2% decline the previous month.

This hasn’t discouraged sellers from entering the market, though. The number of homes newly listed for sale has risen to near four-year highs—which is helping rebalance supply and demand after an extended period of tightness.

Growth in overall inventory has picked up slightly. Yet, there’s a long way to go before buyers see what would be considered ample supply. Active listings are still about half what they were more than a decade ago.

General home value appreciation is being sustained. Median prices are up for both single-family homes and condos—rising 6.9% and 1.2% from a year ago, respectively. The slower pace for condos reflects a stronger 21% increase in active listings in the last 12 months. Single-family listings grew by a more subdued 6%.

Vancouver area: Stuck in a low gear

Home values continue to weaken as affordability and confidence issues hold back demand and more ample inventory fuels seller competition.

Vancouver’s MLS HPI was down 6.8% from a year ago in March.  This is the fastest rate of decline since the spring of 2023 when spiking interest rates caused an abrupt cooling of the market.

The number of homes changing hands is stuck at historically low levels. We estimate it fell a further 4% between February and March seasonally adjusted.

The market slump could be delaying potential sellers’ plans to list their property. New listings eased in the past couple of months—falling 10% from a year ago in March.

That appears to be containing the long-running inventory build-up. Active listing are now up only 1.6% from year-ago levels—a sharp deceleration from a rise of 15% as recently as December.

An outright shrinking of inventory would be required to stem the price decline—something we could see later this year as resale activity gets on a stronger footing.

Calgary: Maintaining balance

Calgary maintains balance despite indications of softening. We estimate both sales and new listings fell in March from February—leaving the ratio of supply to demand little changed.

Home values have yet to steady, though. The composite MLS HPI was down 4.2% from a year ago last month—steepest annual decline in 10 years.

Earlier tightness in supply-demand eased in the past year, and inventory has replenished after plummeting to a decades’ low in 2023.

A historic ramp-up in homebuilding since 2022 has contributed to homes for sale reaching a seven-year high in 2025, ultimately weighing on prices.

We expect home values to continue easing in the short term as more supply comes to the market. Many will be newly constructed homes with builders currently working on a record 26,000 units.

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About the author:

Robert Hogue is the Assistant Chief Economist responsible for providing analysis and forecasts on the Canadian housing market and provincial economies.

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