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June spending snapshot: RBC cardholder data points to a contraction in consumer spending in June with core retail sales (excluding autos and gas) posting the first month-over-month decline since January, down 1.1%.
Our total RBC cardholder spending1 shrank by the same amount after months of solid growth. But, both total cardholder spending (+2.6%) and core retail sales (3%) remained higher on a quarterly basis—reinforcing our view that the broader trade environment has impacted consumer confidence more significantly than actual spending.
Tax changes distort spending patterns in 2025
There were likely several factors contributing to the spending contraction in June beyond simple consumer fatigue. The decline followed May’s exceptionally strong performance—particularly in discretionary categories like entertainment and dining—set the stage for a natural correction in June.
Tax changes implemented earlier this year also significantly distorted broader spending trends by influencing behaviour and pricing around the GST break holiday and end of the consumer carbon tax.
Therefore, a contraction in one month isn’t concerning in our view. Quarterly spending growth remains positive in nearly all categories (except gas and travel)—led by dining (7.7%) and entertainment (5.3%).
Some broader economic indicators are also showing signs of improvement. The Conference Board of Canada’s Index of Consumer Confidence has edged up after hitting a record low in March. Early evidence of revival in the housing market and increased spending on bigger ticket items—like autos—are positive signals as well.
Spotlight on spending: Gas price volatility shakes essentials spending
Overall, essentials spending maintained positive growth throughout the quarter (three-month average), and was up from Q1.
Quarterly grocery spending was up despite fluctuations. Gas spending experienced considerable volatility throughout the quarter due to tax adjustments and oil price shocks, emerging as one of the few categories with negative quarterly growth.
Discretionary services were mixed. Dining showed remarkable resilience for most of the quarter, posting a 7.7% gain (q/q) despite recent softness.
In contrast, travel spending weakened consistently through Q2. A significant slowdown in travel to the U.S. contributed to this pattern with Canadians returning from the U.S. dropping 22% from a year ago—hitting the lowest quarterly level since Q2 2022.
Regional spending trends: Early signs of weakness in Central Canada
Quarterly spending in most provinces remained positive with only exceptions in Prince Edward Island (-6.4%) and Newfoundland and Labrador (-2.2%).
These smaller provinces typically experience greater volatility due to smaller sample sizes, but P.E.I.’s spending contraction aligns with current labor market indicators. The island’s exceptionally slow wage growth (0.2% year-over-year in Q2) could be constraining consumer spending. Low inflation may also be playing a role (0.8%).
More concerning is the underperformance in Ontario and nearby provinces. Total RBC cardholder spending growth has fallen below the national average where most of the recent labour market weakness is concentrated.
Rachel Battaglia is an Economist at RBC, providing forecasts for the Canadian provincial economies and analyzing key trends in housing and consumer spending.
By Carrie Freestone
RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewelers, among others. We exclude purely financial transactions such as cash advances and insurance from spending.
We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas using a 7 day rolling sample starting January 1st of each year that is indexed to pre-covid levels which are calculated as the average spending for the month of February 2020. To examine the impact of seasonal factors, we also show each’s year spending profile which depicts monthly trends in spending. Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization.
Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.
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