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Discussions about tariffs so far have focused primarily on the impact on Canada’s goods exports, but services represent an increasingly critical (and underappreciated) component of the country’s trade profile.
Services have emerged as a growing share of both Canada’s total exports and gross domestic product. They have become a core driver of export growth over the past decade.
Beyond impressive growth, service exports benefit from several structural advantages over goods. They can access diverse markets more easily, face fewer geographic and trade barriers, and demonstrate greater resilience to economic volatility.
As goods trade continues to face protectionist measures and tariff-related headwinds, services trade is a key opportunity for Canada to further economic diversification.
Services export growth outpaces goods
Services make up a smaller share of total trade than goods, but service exports have more than doubled between 2014 and 2024 to $232 billion, representing over 7% of Canadian GDP.
This growth has translated into a larger export footprint with services accounting for 23% of total exports as of Q2 2025, up from 17% a decade earlier.
In fact, service exports have accounted for most of Canada’s real export growth (62%) since 2014. Real service exports have grown 61%, while goods exports have largely remained flat.
Commercial and travel services lead services growth
Canada has historically run a deficit in services trade, but strong gains in commercial and travel services exports have pushed the country into a services trade surplus in recent years.
Commercial services represent the largest share of total services exports at roughly 60%, hitting $138 billion in 2024. Part of that reflects the rapid rise of digital service delivery, which accelerated during the pandemic and helped broaden market access. Robust growth in computer, financial and other professional services has contributed to more than doubling commercial service exports over the past decade.
Commercial services have historically been the biggest driver of service growth, but travel exports ($70 billion in 2024) have also seen tremendous growth in years after the pandemic.
A lot of that is tied to the steep rise in international arrivals, especially education-related travel services stemming from international students. Spending by international students including on tuition, food, and accommodation is counted as travel exports, because these students are non-residents. They accounted for over half ($36 billion) of total travel service exports in 2024.
Travel-related services exports are likely to moderate with the federal government’s new immigration targets, but one byproduct of current trade tensions with the U.S. is Canadian travel abroad has declined more sharply (partially from fewer trips to the U.S.) than non-resident visits to Canada. This helps boost Canada’s international travel trade balance, and likely benefits local tourism as Canadians stay and spend closer to home.
Why services are well positioned for greater trade diversification
Service exports offer several structural advantages that could provide Canada with a critical avenue towards greater economic diversification.
Service exports face less direct tariff exposure than goods. Unlike goods, which face tariffs physically crossing a border, most service exports are intangible and sometimes difficult to measure, making tariffs far more challenging to apply, providing a natural buffer against some protectionist measures. That said, some services face other regulatory barriers, such as licensing restrictions or compliance requirements, that may constrain their export.
Service exports generally demonstrate greater resilience to economic cycles than goods. Historically, service exports have been less volatile than goods. The pandemic did weaken service exports, but it was primarily due to a drop in travel exports stemming from travel restrictions. Commercial services, by contrast, remained resilient throughout the pandemic and continued to expand, driven by growth in digital delivery. This resilience also reflects stable demand for essential business services such as financial, professional, consulting, and IT even during challenging economic conditions.
Service exports offer easier access to diversified markets. Many services face fewer geographic constraints than goods, allowing for broader market diversification. Canada’s service exports are already more geographically diversified than goods exports.
The U.S. remains the primary market for both trades, but it accounts for a shrinking share of total services exports at 52% (down from 55% a decade ago), significantly less than the roughly three-quarters share for goods exports. In fact, exports to non-U.S. markets have expanded more than to the U.S. since 2015, rising $63 billion compared to $60 billion, respectively.
Some services are indirectly impacted by tariffs on goods
Service exports offer several structural advantages, but the relationship between goods and services trade is more nuanced than it appears.
Although tariffs have not been applied directly to service exports, some industries may face indirect exposure, because a significant share of Canadian services activity is tied to trade in goods (as we explained here).
This could include sectors like transportation and warehousing with the movement of goods, as well as associated services like finance, computer, and other professional services embedded in or sold after a good has been delivered. About 35% of the value added in Canadian manufacturing exports were services in 2022, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Hence, some gains in services trade may be partly contingent on maintaining stable goods trade relationships.
About the Author
Salim Zanzana is an economist at RBC. He focuses on emerging macroeconomic issues, ranging from trends in the labour market to shifts in the longer-term structural growth of Canada and other global economies.
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