Economy and Markets

Canadian growth is tracking closer to the least negative scenarios from earlier in the year.

We still think there are reasons to expect the worst of the drag from trade is likely behind us in Canada.

Another month of substantial trade related news from the U.S. didn’t move the needle on our forecasts.

Our Canadian and U.S. forecasts are largely unchanged despite material trade-related news out of the U.S.

Amid a sizeable trade shock and lingering uncertainty, the economy’s growth outlook is running far softer than most forecasters predicted.

We have upgraded growth forecasts for Canada and the United States with the former expected to benefit from fiscal tailwinds especially in 2026.

U.S. trade agreements are trimming downside growth risks, but the average U.S. tariff rate is still the highest since the 1930s.

We have downgraded our U.S. growth outlook, and expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times in 2025 with another three cuts in 2026.

The threat of significant international trade disruptions is overshadowing what would have been a substantially improving Canadian economy.

Trade risks are set to wipe out early signs of economic recovery in Canada—we expect gross domestic product growth to slow and the unemployment rate to edge higher in coming quarters.

U.S. President Donald Trump backed away from imposing blanket tariffs on Canada at the 11th hour last week, but trade risks are not going away.

With the exceptional run of U.S. data continuing, we no longer expect any further rate cuts from the Fed in 2025.