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                        4. What is your economic outlook for North America in
                          2006?  
                        Growth rate disparities between Canada, the U.S. and
                        other G7 economies are in the process of narrowing. Just
                        as Canadian real GDP growth is accelerating, the U.S.
                        economy is set to slow moderately. We expect real
                        Canadian GDP growth to pick up from 2.9 per cent in 2005
                        to 3.4 per cent in 2006 and U.S. real GDP growth to slow
                        from 3.4 per cent in 2005 to 3.2 per cent in 2006. Lower
                        inflation, a more accommodative monetary policy, and
                        sharply higher energy and non-energy commodity prices
                        are behind the expected improvement in Canadian growth.
                        The U.S. economy is expected to slow down because
                        consumers and businesses are expected to begin saving
                        more in response to higher interest rates.
                       
                      
                        Lower U.S. investment and consumption growth should lead
                        to less borrowing of foreign funds. As a result more
                        funds are expected to remain in lending countries
                        promoting local investment and consumption. We expect
                        improving Canadian growth in 2006 to result in continued
                        rate hikes and the Bank of Canada overnight rate of
                        interest is expected to reach 4 per cent by April 2006.
                        The U.S. federal funds rate has already been rising for
                        over a year and is expected to peak at 4.25 per cent in
                        the last quarter of 2005 and remain at that level in
                        2006. The rising cost of raw material inputs along with
                        rising wages pushed the U.S. Federal Reserve to act
                        earlier than the Bank of Canada in hiking rates.
                       
                      
                        Longer-term interest rates are also expected to rise in
                        both countries alongside slowly mounting core consumer
                        price index inflation pressures, leading mortgage rates
                        to rise. The hot Canadian and U.S. housing markets are
                        expected to soften as demand shifts lower with higher
                        borrowing costs. Unlike prior real estate cycles,
                        however, an implosion of the real estate market in
                        either country is unlikely since construction has only
                        kept pace with demand as speculative construction frenzy
                        in both countries was avoided.
                       
                      
                        Given our outlook, several offsetting factors should
                        keep the value of the U.S. dollar trading in a narrow
                        range.
                       
                      
                        Firstly, less borrowing of foreign funds by the U.S. is
                        expected to limit further weakening of the U.S. dollar.
                        At the same time, however, the U.S. dollar could come
                        under downward pressure with expectations of continued
                        interest rate hikes in Canada and other G7 countries
                        offsetting hikes in U.S. shortterm interest rates.
                        Furthermore, the Canada-U.S. exchange rate will also be
                        affected by weaker commodity prices. The Canadian dollar
                        is, therefore, expected to fluctuate in a range of 82 to
                        85 U.S. cents. Other currencies are also expected to
                        stabilize relative to the U.S. dollar in 2006 giving
                        exporters in these countries a reprieve as they continue
                        to adjust to intense pressure from Chinese exports.
                       
                      
                        The risks surrounding our North American economic
                        outlook are unusually widespread. The war in Iraq and
                        the threat of civil war if the U.S. pulls out early,
                        increasing friction between China and Japan, not to
                        mention the nuclear proliferation threat coming from
                        North Korea could all lead to another bout of higher oil
                        prices, lower demand, lower interest rates, rising
                        inflation and perhaps a period of stagflation. For now,
                        however, our base case consists of a converging business
                        cycle between G7 economies, particularly between Canada
                        and the U.S.
                       
                        
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