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Economy and Markets

An in-depth analysis of the key drivers of economic activity in Canada and the US including a discussion of global factors that will affect these near term forecasts.

A forward-looking analysis of Canadian, U.S. and international financial market trends including interest rate and currency forecasts.

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Financial Markets Monthly

It's hard to leave (higher rates) when you can't find the door (to lower inflation)

May 9, 2024

Upside inflation surprises year-to-date in the U.S. will keep the Fed on the sidelines for now – we continue to expect the first cut to the fed funds target in December, contingent on both growth and inflation gradually and persistently slowing.

Macroeconomic Outlook

Canadian economic slowdown is not over

March 12, 2024

The Canadian economy is still slowing as the lagged impact of earlier interest rate increases materialize. Gross domestic product edged...

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Financial Markets

BoC and the Fed, you gotta keep ‘em separated U.S. outperformance continues but no sunshine yet for the Canadian economy New rules Ordinary pain
Special edition - keeping an eye on Canada’s credit rating Under Pressure – softening outlook keeping central banks at bay Taking the long way home Letting it be - central banks hold the line as more clouds roll in Central banks hit "hopeful pause" on rate hikes Interest rates to stay higher for longer Triangulating terminal: take two Crunch time The waiting is the hardest part New legs, or familiar lags? Know when to hold ’em Triangulating terminal
Past the peak Searching for the turning point Crossing the line(s) Front-loading can't guarantee a soft landing Flagging growth won't derail central bank rate hikes Shrinking runway for a soft landing Will tough-talking central banks follow through? End of an era Central banks playing catch-up Conflict in Europe brings more uncertainty, more inflation Moving on from pandemic stimulus Omicron won’t deter hawkish central banks
Central banks weigh inflation, new variant Central banks feeling the pressure Central banks shuffling toward the exit Economic recovery delayed but not derailed Navigating the Delta variant Central bank divergence re-emerging Economies and markets in wait-and-see mode Central banks on different wavelengths Vaccines, restrictions driving near-term divergence Inflation Prospects Prompt Bond Market Reset Economic Momentum 'Strained' in Early 2021 Rising COVID Cases Make for a Challenging Start to 2021
Vaccine Rollout Boosts 2021 Growth Prospects The Balancing Act: Containment vs. Recovery Second Wave Threatens Recovery Momentum Economic Check-up after a Very Long 6 Months Economic Recovery Underway, but Risks Abound Managing COVID Outbreaks Key for the Path to Economic Recovery After Unprecedented Declines, an Uneasy Recovery Begins After the Fall Record-breaking Declines Ahead March 6, 2020 February 7, 2020 January 10, 2020
December 13, 2019 November 8, 2019 October 4, 2019 September 11, 2019 August 9, 2019 July 12, 2019 June 7, 2019 May 10, 2019 April 4, 2019 March 15, 2019 February 8, 2019 January 24, 2019 January 11, 2019
December 7, 2018 November 9, 2018 October 10, 2018 September 12, 2018 August 10, 2018 July 12, 2018 June 8, 2018 May 4, 2018 April 6, 2018 March 9, 2018 February 9, 2018 January 5, 2018
December 11, 2017 November 3, 2017 October 6, 2017 September 8, 2017 August 4, 2017 June 30, 2017 June 9, 2017 May 8, 2017 April 10, 2017 March 3, 2017 February 3, 2017 January 6, 2017

Macroeconomic Outlook

Hitting tipping points Canada’s economic engine is gearing down Canada’s economy is beating expectations, but for how long? Canadian economy unlikely to dodge a downturn despite early-2023 resilience
Rate-hiking cycle ending as recession edges closer Brace for a 'bumpy' landing, Canada Growth opportunities narrow amid searing inflation and a scarcity of workers Russian invasion and surging inflation take over as key global growth risks
Inflation top concern for 2022, Covid variant casts shadow The long and winding road to recovery Economic recovery shifts into higher gear Vaccines Put Global Economy on Recovery Track
Vaccine Clears Path for Recovery but Not out of the Woods Yet Economic Conditions Improve but Bumpy Road Ahead Charting a Course for Recovery The Economic Eclipse A Downturn Like No Other Canada's Economy Enters Uncharted Waters The world has changed (March 2020)
2020 Outlook - A prolonged, precarious expansion (December 2019) Trade war taking wind out of global economy's sail (September 2019) Uncertainty taking a toll on global economy (June 2019) Proceeding with caution (March 2019)
The winds of change (December 2018) Global economy losing altitude though remains on positive growth path (September 2018) Global economy is still on a positive path...but mind the growing gap (June 2018) The Global Economy Hits a Sweet Spot (March 2018)
After a highly unusual 2017, what's in store for 2018? (December 2017) World economy on firm glide path; Canada doing its part (September 2017) Living with uncertainty (June 2017) Can growth trump uncertainty in 2017? (March 2017)