{"id":16634,"date":"2026-06-05T13:50:49","date_gmt":"2026-06-05T13:50:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/?post_type=rbc_tl&p=16634"},"modified":"2026-06-05T13:50:51","modified_gmt":"2026-06-05T13:50:51","slug":"loffensive-chinoise-comment-la-crise-du-detroit-dormuz-accelere-la-domination-de-la-chine-dans-les-technologies-propres","status":"publish","type":"rbc_tl","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/leadership-avise\/institut-action-climatique\/energie-rapports\/loffensive-chinoise-comment-la-crise-du-detroit-dormuz-accelere-la-domination-de-la-chine-dans-les-technologies-propres\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u2019offensive chinoise\u00a0:\u00a0comment la crise du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz acc\u00e9l\u00e8re la domination de la Chine dans les technologies propres"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Le blocage du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz a mis en lumi\u00e8re deux points de vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9 dans le contexte du conflit au Moyen-Orient\u00a0: l\u2019un li\u00e9 aux combustibles fossiles, l\u2019autre aux politiques occidentales de d\u00e9carbonation. \u00c0 bien des \u00e9gards, c\u2019est la Chine qui m\u00e8ne aujourd\u2019hui la transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique mondiale. Les plus r\u00e9centes donn\u00e9es commerciales mettent en \u00e9vidence la position souvent sous-estim\u00e9e de la Chine au sein des cha\u00eenes logistiques mondiales en \u00e9nergie propre\u00a0\u2014 une\u00a0position qui s\u2019est encore renforc\u00e9e avec la crise du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Une<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

La Chine est le principal exportateur de presque toutes les grandes technologies propres, souvent avec une avance consid\u00e9rable. Les chefs de file non chinois\u00a0\u2014\u00a0l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne pour les tours et les \u00e9oliennes, et la Cor\u00e9e du Sud pour les composants de batteries\u00a0\u2014\u00a0s\u2019approvisionnent aupr\u00e8s de la Chine ou investissent \u00e0 ses c\u00f4t\u00e9s. En Am\u00e9rique du Nord, les consid\u00e9rations g\u00e9opolitiques ont jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent pris le pas sur les avantages que procurerait l\u2019exploitation de l\u2019avantage structurel de la Chine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Le<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Surcapacit\u00e9<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Les producteurs chinois b\u00e9n\u00e9ficient d\u2019un co\u00fbt du capital structurellement inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 celui de leurs concurrents gr\u00e2ce au soutien de l\u2019\u00c9tat et \u00e0 un acc\u00e8s privil\u00e9gi\u00e9 au financement. Cette situation engendre et entretient souvent une surcapacit\u00e9 \u00e0 une \u00e9chelle que les march\u00e9s priv\u00e9s ne pourraient ni financer ni tol\u00e9rer. Il en r\u00e9sulte une concurrence f\u00e9roce sur le march\u00e9 int\u00e9rieur o\u00f9 seuls les acteurs les plus performants survivent, ce qui continue d\u2019abaisser le seuil minimal des co\u00fbts de production. Lorsque la demande se redresse\u00a0\u2014\u00a0si elle se redresse\u00a0\u2014, la Chine est la mieux plac\u00e9e pour accro\u00eetre sa part de march\u00e9 gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 cette surcapacit\u00e9. La Chine a, depuis, tent\u00e9 de freiner cette concurrence au moyen d\u2019ententes d\u2019autodiscipline entre fabricants, mais ces efforts n\u2019ont jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent pas port\u00e9 leurs fruits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"L\u2019avantage<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Les mat\u00e9riaux des cellules et les co\u00fbts de fabrication en Chine repr\u00e9sentent moins de 50\u00a0$\u00a0US du co\u00fbt livr\u00e9 de 84\u00a0$\u00a0US par kilowattheure (kWh) des cellules de batterie vendues aux \u00c9tats-Unis. Les droits de douane \u00e0 l\u2019importation ajoutent 27\u00a0$\u00a0US\/kWh\u00a0\u2014\u00a0soit davantage que l\u2019ensemble des co\u00fbts de fabrication en Chine. Malgr\u00e9 cela, les exportateurs chinois d\u00e9gagent une marge de 2,7\u00a0%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c0 titre de comparaison, l\u2019indice S&P des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s mondiales estime que le co\u00fbt des cellules de batterie nord-am\u00e9ricaines NCM811 (nickel-cobalt-mangan\u00e8se) s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8ve \u00e0 environ 95\u00a0$\u00a0US\/kWh, soit pr\u00e8s de 90\u00a0% de plus que celui des cellules de batterie chinoises. Pour mettre ces chiffres en perspective, une Tesla Model\u00a0Y Standard Range est \u00e9quip\u00e9e d\u2019un bloc-batterie\u00a0LFP (lithium-fer-phosphate) de 60\u00a0kWh. Au prix m\u00e9dian de 81\u00a0$\u00a0US\/kWh pour les blocs-batteries\u00a0LFP chinois, selon les donn\u00e9es de BloombergNEF, une batterie de capacit\u00e9 comparable co\u00fbterait environ 4\u00a0900\u00a0$\u00a0US (6\u00a0500\u00a0$\u00a0CA), soit pr\u00e8s de 13\u00a0% du prix affich\u00e9 d\u2019une Model\u00a0Y au Canada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Les<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Alors que l\u2019Occident demeure souvent pr\u00e9occup\u00e9 par le co\u00fbt \u00e9lev\u00e9 des technologies propres, environ 40\u00a0% des exportations chinoises de v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques et plus de 90\u00a0% de ses exportations de cellules solaires ont \u00e9t\u00e9 destin\u00e9es \u00e0 des pays \u00e0 revenu faible ou interm\u00e9diaire en\u00a02025. La structure de co\u00fbts de la Chine a permis l\u2019\u00e9mergence d\u2019une cat\u00e9gorie d\u2019acheteurs de technologies propres que les producteurs occidentaux ne parviendront probablement jamais \u00e0 rejoindre\u00a0: les march\u00e9s \u00e0 forte croissance, principalement situ\u00e9s en Asie, o\u00f9 l\u2019adoption des \u00e9nergies propres s\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e8re rapidement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c0 lui seul, le Pakistan a ajout\u00e9 18,3\u00a0GW de capacit\u00e9 solaire en\u00a02025, soit l\u2019\u00e9quivalent de 75\u00a0% de l\u2019ensemble de la capacit\u00e9 solaire et \u00e9olienne install\u00e9e au Canada \u00e0 ce jour, gr\u00e2ce principalement \u00e0 des importations en provenance de la Chine. Le taux d\u2019adoption des v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques au Vietnam et en Tha\u00eflande\u00a0\u2014\u00a0deux pays dont le PIB nominal par habitant est inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 10\u00a0000\u00a0$\u00a0\u2014\u00a0d\u00e9passe respectivement 40\u00a0% et 20\u00a0% (comparativement \u00e0 11\u00a0% au Canada en\u00a02025). Ni le Vietnam ni la Tha\u00eflande n\u2019offrent d\u2019incitatifs fiscaux \u00e0 l\u2019achat de v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"La<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Le conflit au Moyen-Orient, qui a perturb\u00e9 le trafic dans le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz, a mis en lumi\u00e8re la tendance \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9lectrification, alors que les pays importateurs de combustibles fossiles acc\u00e9l\u00e8rent leurs achats de technologies d\u2019\u00e9nergie propre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Par cons\u00e9quent, les exportations chinoises de batteries ont atteint pr\u00e8s de 10\u00a0milliards de dollars am\u00e9ricains pour le seul mois de mars\u00a02026, l\u2019Europe, l\u2019Asie du Sud-Est et le Moyen-Orient absorbant l\u2019essentiel des volumes. La demande am\u00e9ricaine n\u2019a repr\u00e9sent\u00e9 que 8\u00a0% des exportations de mars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique s\u2019op\u00e8re selon les conditions dict\u00e9es par la Chine. La Cor\u00e9e du Sud et l\u2019Europe ont abord\u00e9 cette r\u00e9alit\u00e9 comme un enjeu d\u2019approvisionnement et de partenariat plut\u00f4t que comme un choix binaire, et elles en ont tir\u00e9 des avantages. L\u2019Am\u00e9rique du Nord doit, elle aussi, adopter des strat\u00e9gies qui \u00e9tablissent un \u00e9quilibre entre l\u2019utilisation de contenu et d\u2019intrants chinois et le d\u00e9veloppement d\u2019une base industrielle nationale capable de rivaliser et de prendre de l\u2019expansion afin de saisir les occasions offertes par la transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique mondiale.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n

\n
\n

Shaz Merwat <\/strong>est responsable principal, Politique \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, Institut d’action climatique\u00a0RBC<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Comment la Chine tire parti de l\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de la transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique mondiale<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":337,"featured_media":16644,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"disable_focal_point":true,"featured_image_focal_point":{"x":0.5,"y":0.5},"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"rbc_tl_category":[157,135],"rbc_tl_tag":[],"class_list":["post-16634","rbc_tl","type-rbc_tl","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rbc_tl_category-energie-rapports","rbc_tl_category-institut-action-climatique"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nL\u2019offensive chinoise\u00a0:\u00a0comment la crise du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz acc\u00e9l\u00e8re la domination de la Chine dans les technologies propres - RBC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Comment la Chine tire parti de l\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de la transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique mondiale\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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