{"id":8395,"date":"2026-11-05T21:45:03","date_gmt":"2026-11-05T21:45:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/?p=8395"},"modified":"2026-11-09T21:56:17","modified_gmt":"2026-11-09T21:56:17","slug":"le-transfert-sectoriel-de-linflation-energetique-est-imminent","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/analyse-pour-les-etats-unis\/cette-semaine-aux-etats-unis\/le-transfert-sectoriel-de-linflation-energetique-est-imminent\/","title":{"rendered":"Le transfert sectoriel de l\u2019inflation \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique est imminent"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-l-hlf mob-pad-l-hlf pad-r-hlf mob-pad-r-hlf has-rbc-bright-blue-tint-4-background-color has-background is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-c94bf079 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\" style=\"border-style:none;border-width:0px;border-radius:5px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:98%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text is-stacked-on-mobile is-vertically-aligned-center mar-l-hlf pad-l-hlf\" style=\"grid-template-columns:22% auto\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1767\" height=\"1632\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/07\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6383 size-full\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/07\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png 1767w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/07\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=300,277 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/07\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=768,709 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/07\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=1024,946 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/07\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=1536,1419 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1767px) 100vw, 1767px\" \/><\/figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"Intro\">Les donn\u00e9es sur l\u2019inflation seront le principal \u00e9v\u00e9nement de la semaine prochaine. En ce qui concerne l\u2019IPC, <strong>nous pr\u00e9voyons que l\u2019inflation globale et l\u2019inflation de base auront augment\u00e9 de 0,3&nbsp;% d\u2019un mois sur l\u2019autre en octobre. Nous ne prendrons pas connaissance de donn\u00e9es sur l\u2019IPC d\u2019une ann\u00e9e sur l\u2019autre parce qu\u2019il nous manque des donn\u00e9es d\u2019octobre&nbsp;2025 en raison de la paralysie de l\u2019\u00c9tat f\u00e9d\u00e9ral.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/analyse-pour-les-etats-unis\/cette-semaine-aux-etats-unis\/ipc-de-septembre-aux-etats-unis-premiers-signes-de-repercussion-de-la-hausse-des-prix-de-lenergie\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-Cettesemaineaux\u00c9tats-Unis-8395-a31aaa67\" data-dig-category=\"LP-Cettesemaineaux\u00c9tats-Unis\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Le rapport sur l\u2019IPC de septembre\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Le rapport sur l\u2019IPC de septembre<\/a> a signal\u00e9 les premiers signes d\u2019un transfert sectoriel des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie, mais ce n\u2019\u00e9tait probablement <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/analyse-pour-les-etats-unis\/cette-semaine-aux-etats-unis\/lipc-de-septembre-nest-que-la-partie-emergee-de-liceberg-de-linflation\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-Cettesemaineaux\u00c9tats-Unis-8395-a31aaa67\" data-dig-category=\"LP-Cettesemaineaux\u00c9tats-Unis\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"que la partie \u00e9merg\u00e9e de l\u2019iceberg de l\u2019inflation\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">que la partie \u00e9merg\u00e9e de l\u2019iceberg de l\u2019inflation<\/a>. Nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce que cette tendance se poursuive en octobre. Les prix des biens de base ont acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9 au cours des trois derniers mois, en raison des pressions qui s\u2019accumulent dans les cat\u00e9gories de biens import\u00e9s, y compris les v\u00eatements et les chaussures, les jouets et les biens r\u00e9cr\u00e9atifs, et le mat\u00e9riel de TI. Les prix des pi\u00e8ces et de l\u2019\u00e9quipement de v\u00e9hicules automobiles (en raison des pressions tarifaires) commencent \u00e0 faire grimper les prix des v\u00e9hicules d\u2019occasion. En ce qui concerne les services, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/analyse-pour-les-etats-unis\/analyse-en-vedette-analyse-pour-les-etats-unis\/seance-dinformation-doctobre-a-lintention-des-dirigeants-le-cout-de-la-vigueur-de-leconomie-americaine-ne-cesse-daugmenter\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-Cettesemaineaux\u00c9tats-Unis-8395-a31aaa67\" data-dig-category=\"LP-Cettesemaineaux\u00c9tats-Unis\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"nous avons toujours insist\u00e9\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">nous avons toujours insist\u00e9<\/a> sur le fait que l\u2019inflation des services ne devrait pas apporter beaucoup de r\u00e9pit pour le reste de l\u2019ann\u00e9e. Les prix des logements devraient continuer d\u2019augmenter, et les services de base, \u00e0 l\u2019exclusion du logement (c.\u2011\u00e0\u2011d. la super mesure de base), n\u2019ont jamais diminu\u00e9 d\u2019une ann\u00e9e sur l\u2019autre. Dans l\u2019ensemble, les risques d\u2019inflation semblent fortement orient\u00e9s \u00e0 la hausse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/analyse-pour-les-etats-unis\/analyse-en-vedette-analyse-pour-les-etats-unis\/lindice-des-prix-a-la-production-americain-un-systeme-dalerte-rapide-sur-linflation\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-Cettesemaineaux\u00c9tats-Unis-8395-a31aaa67\" data-dig-category=\"LP-Cettesemaineaux\u00c9tats-Unis\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"L\u2019IPP fournira une meilleure indication de la trajectoire de l\u2019inflation\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">L\u2019IPP fournira une meilleure indication de la trajectoire de l\u2019inflation<\/a>. <strong>Nous pr\u00e9voyons une hausse de 0,5&nbsp;% d\u2019un mois sur l\u2019autre de l\u2019IPP en octobre<\/strong>, les donn\u00e9es globales \u00e9tant l\u00e9g\u00e8rement plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es alors que les prix \u00e9lev\u00e9s du p\u00e9trole se r\u00e9percutent sur les co\u00fbts du fret. Le transport de marchandises a \u00e9t\u00e9 un point de pression majeur, l\u2019IPP pour le fret en haute mer ayant atteint un niveau record de 37&nbsp;% en glissement annuel. \u00c9tant donn\u00e9 que l\u2019IPP pour le fret est fond\u00e9 sur des contrats de service \u00e0 long terme n\u00e9goci\u00e9s par des entreprises de transport maritime nationales, un recul des tarifs au comptant mondiaux pour le transport de conteneurs ne se traduira pas imm\u00e9diatement par un sursis. De plus, les co\u00fbts d\u2019exp\u00e9dition plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s donnent aux entreprises de bonnes raisons de relever les prix. Les co\u00fbts ayant d\u00e9j\u00e0 commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 se r\u00e9percuter sur les prix, le mal est probablement fait, et les preuves ne tarderont pas \u00e0 appara\u00eetre. Il existe un \u00e9norme \u00e9cart de 4,3&nbsp;points de pourcentage entre le rythme d\u2019une ann\u00e9e sur l\u2019autre de l\u2019IPP de base (\u00e0 l\u2019exclusion des services commerciaux) et de l\u2019IPC des biens de base&nbsp;\u2013&nbsp;plus large que ce que nous voyons habituellement&nbsp;\u2013 ce qui donne \u00e0 penser que les r\u00e9percussions sur l\u2019IPC sont imminentes si les entreprises visent \u00e0 pr\u00e9server leurs marges. Les services commerciaux nous donneront une bonne id\u00e9e de ces marges&nbsp;: des donn\u00e9es n\u00e9gatives constantes pourraient signaler une compression, alors qu\u2019une tendance positive donnerait \u00e0 penser que les entreprises r\u00e9percutent les co\u00fbts plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s sur les consommateurs plut\u00f4t que de r\u00e9duire les co\u00fbts de main-d\u2019\u0153uvre, ce que nous n\u2019avons tout simplement pas observ\u00e9, comme l\u2019indiquent les donn\u00e9es sur les demandes de prestations d\u2019assurance-ch\u00f4mage ou les avis de licenciement collectif (WARN).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color has-text-lg-font-size wp-elements-1 wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Le fait que l\u2019IPP de base pour les biens de consommation d\u00e9passe l\u2019IPC des biens de base signale une pression sur les prix \u00e0 venir pour les consommateurs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6af397d670766&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6af397d670766\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2175\" height=\"1746\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/11\/WA-Nov6FR-Chart.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8397\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.2457161869905173;width:771px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/11\/WA-Nov6FR-Chart.png 2175w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/11\/WA-Nov6FR-Chart.png?resize=300,241 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/11\/WA-Nov6FR-Chart.png?resize=768,617 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/11\/WA-Nov6FR-Chart.png?resize=1024,822 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/11\/WA-Nov6FR-Chart.png?resize=1536,1233 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/11\/WA-Nov6FR-Chart.png?resize=2048,1644 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2175px) 100vw, 2175px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>\u00c0 propos des auteurs :<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Mike Reid<\/strong>&nbsp;<em>est chef, Services \u00e9conomiques RBC \u2013 \u00c9tats-Unis.\u202fIl est charg\u00e9 d\u2019\u00e9tablir les perspectives \u00e9conomiques de RBC pour les \u00c9tats-Unis, de commenter les indicateurs macro\u00e9conomiques et de r\u00e9diger des analyses concernant le contexte \u00e9conomique.<\/em>&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><em><strong>Carrie Freestone<\/strong>&nbsp;<em>est \u00e9conomiste principale aux \u00c9tats-Unis \u00e0 RBC et membre de l\u2019\u00e9quipe des Services \u00e9conomiques aux \u00c9tats-Unis \u00e0 RBC\u202fMarch\u00e9s des Capitaux. Elle est responsable de pr\u00e9voir les principaux indicateurs cl\u00e9s am\u00e9ricains, notamment le PIB, l\u2019emploi, les d\u00e9penses de consommation et l\u2019inflation aux \u00c9tats-Unis. Elle contribue \u00e9galement aux commentaires sur la conjoncture \u00e9conomique aux \u00c9tats-Unis qu\u2019elle transmet aux clients au moyen de publications, de pr\u00e9sentations et par l\u2019interm\u00e9diaire des m\u00e9dias.<\/em>&nbsp;<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Imri Haggin<\/strong>&nbsp;est \u00e9conomiste \u00e0 RBC March\u00e9s des Capitaux, o\u00f9 il se concentre sur la recherche th\u00e9matique. Ses travaux ant\u00e9rieurs portaient sur la dynamique du cr\u00e9dit \u00e0 la consommation et la mod\u00e9lisation des liquidit\u00e9s, et mettaient l\u2019accent sur l\u2019utilisation des donn\u00e9es pour comprendre les comportements.<\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":2504,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[76],"tags":[],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-8395","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cette-semaine-aux-etats-unis"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.2 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Le transfert sectoriel de l\u2019inflation \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique est imminent - RBC Economique<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/analyse-pour-les-etats-unis\/cette-semaine-aux-etats-unis\/le-transfert-sectoriel-de-linflation-energetique-est-imminent\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Le transfert sectoriel de l\u2019inflation \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique est imminent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/analyse-pour-les-etats-unis\/cette-semaine-aux-etats-unis\/le-transfert-sectoriel-de-linflation-energetique-est-imminent\/\" \/>\n<meta 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