{"id":8185,"date":"2026-10-09T15:45:47","date_gmt":"2026-10-09T15:45:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/?p=8185"},"modified":"2026-11-02T17:22:52","modified_gmt":"2026-11-02T17:22:52","slug":"lipc-de-septembre-nest-que-la-partie-emergee-de-liceberg-de-linflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/analyse-pour-les-etats-unis\/cette-semaine-aux-etats-unis\/lipc-de-septembre-nest-que-la-partie-emergee-de-liceberg-de-linflation\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u2019IPC de septembre n\u2019est que la partie \u00e9merg\u00e9e de l\u2019iceberg de l\u2019inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-l-hlf mob-pad-l-hlf pad-r-hlf mob-pad-r-hlf has-rbc-bright-blue-tint-4-background-color has-background is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-c94bf079 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\" style=\"border-style:none;border-width:0px;border-radius:5px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:98%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text is-stacked-on-mobile is-vertically-aligned-center mar-l-hlf pad-l-hlf\" style=\"grid-template-columns:22% auto\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1767\" height=\"1632\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/07\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6383 size-full\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/07\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png 1767w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/07\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=300,277 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/07\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=768,709 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/07\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=1024,946 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/07\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=1536,1419 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1767px) 100vw, 1767px\" \/><\/figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"Intro\">La semaine prochaine, nous aurons acc\u00e8s aux chiffres de l\u2019inflation de septembre : nous ne nous attendons pas \u00e0 ce que l\u2019IPC soit rassurant. L\u2019inflation globale reste tributaire du prix du p\u00e9trole : <strong>nous pr\u00e9voyons une hausse de l\u2019inflation globale selon l\u2019IPC de +0,6 % d\u2019un mois sur l\u2019autre, ce qui porterait le taux d\u2019une ann\u00e9e sur l\u2019autre \u00e0 3,7 %.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>L\u2019IPC de base sera plus pr\u00e9occupant. Nous pr\u00e9voyons des donn\u00e9es plus modestes de +0,2 % d\u2019un mois sur l\u2019autre (arrondies \u00e0 la baisse), mais le taux d\u2019une ann\u00e9e sur l\u2019autre devrait l\u00e9g\u00e8rement augmenter pour s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 2,5 %.<\/strong> Le risque demeure que les perspectives d\u2019un ralentissement significatif de l\u2019inflation de base soient limit\u00e9es, et le rapport sur l\u2019IPC de septembre ne refl\u00e9tera pas pleinement les risques de hausse \u00e0 venir. La super inflation de base s\u2019est syst\u00e9matiquement maintenue \u00e0 3 % ou plus depuis mars et a commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 s\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer de nouveau. Les pressions sur les biens de base continuent de s\u2019accentuer : les prix des pi\u00e8ces et des \u00e9quipements de v\u00e9hicules automobiles ont augment\u00e9 en raison des droits de douane, ce qui se traduit d\u00e9sormais par une hausse des prix des voitures neuves et d\u2019occasion. Le probl\u00e8me est que des risques importants se profilent \u00e0 l\u2019horizon, tant en raison des droits de douane que des perturbations g\u00e9opolitiques, et c\u2019est dans le secteur des biens de base que nous nous attendons \u00e0 observer les r\u00e9percussions les plus imm\u00e9diates de la hausse des prix du diesel. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/analyse-pour-les-etats-unis\/rapports-de-donnees-provisoires-eu\/ipc-daout-aux-etats-unis-linflation-evolue-dans-la-mauvaise-direction\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-Cettesemaineaux\u00c9tats-Unis-8185-35c2ab30\" data-dig-category=\"LP-Cettesemaineaux\u00c9tats-Unis\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"L\u2019indice des prix \u00e0 la production (IPP) dans le secteur du fret a affich\u00e9 des r\u00e9sultats tr\u00e8s m\u00e9diocres\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">L\u2019indice des prix \u00e0 la production (IPP) dans le secteur du fret a affich\u00e9 des r\u00e9sultats tr\u00e8s m\u00e9diocres<\/a> \u2013 nous aurons une meilleure id\u00e9e de la situation jeudi, avec la publication de l\u2019IPP de septembre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Nous pr\u00e9voyons une autre hausse importante de l\u2019IPP de +0,9&nbsp;% d\u2019un mois sur l\u2019autre et de l\u2019IPP de base de +0,4&nbsp;% d\u2019un mois sur l\u2019autre.<\/strong> Au sein de l\u2019IPP, les services du commerce, qui refl\u00e8tent les marges entre les co\u00fbts d\u2019acquisition des grossistes et des d\u00e9taillants et les prix de vente, affichent une tendance n\u00e9gative depuis deux mois cons\u00e9cutifs, ce qui laisse entrevoir une compression potentielle des marges. Un troisi\u00e8me r\u00e9sultat n\u00e9gatif serait pr\u00e9occupant, car cela signifierait que les donn\u00e9es volatiles relatives aux services du commerce s\u2019installent dans une phase de \u00ab&nbsp;compression des marges&nbsp;\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Si l\u2019on en juge par les d\u00e9penses personnelles d\u2019ao\u00fbt, la demande r\u00e9elle des consommateurs demeure exceptionnellement forte, m\u00eame face aux pressions inflationnistes. La croissance d\u2019une ann\u00e9e sur l\u2019autre de la r\u00e9mun\u00e9ration hebdomadaire moyenne est rest\u00e9e stable, mais les sources de revenus non li\u00e9es au travail, soit les transferts, les loyers, ainsi que les revenus d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eats et de dividendes, rev\u00eatent une importance croissante, soutenues par des valorisations boursi\u00e8res \u00e9lev\u00e9es et un contexte de taux plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s. D\u00e8s janvier, les retrait\u00e9s devraient b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier d\u2019un important ajustement au co\u00fbt de la vie des prestations de la S\u00e9curit\u00e9 sociale, alors m\u00eame que les effets de base commencent \u00e0 att\u00e9nuer les donn\u00e9es globales d\u2019une ann\u00e9e sur l\u2019autre. L\u2019IPC des salari\u00e9s et des employ\u00e9s de bureau en milieu urbain de septembre aura de l\u2019importance, car la croissance des prix au troisi\u00e8me trimestre est prise en compte dans le calcul de l\u2019ajustement au co\u00fbt de la vie. En r\u00e9sum\u00e9&nbsp;: du point de vue de la demande, les perspectives d\u2019aide de la part des services de base sont minimes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Nous devrions \u00e9galement recevoir les chiffres pr\u00e9liminaires des ventes au d\u00e9tail de septembre, qui, selon nos pr\u00e9visions, devraient afficher une hausse apparente de +0,8&nbsp;% d\u2019un mois sur l\u2019autre.<\/strong> <strong>Nous nous attendons toutefois \u00e0 ce que le groupe de contr\u00f4le fasse \u00e9tat d\u2019une croissance mod\u00e9r\u00e9e apr\u00e8s les excellents r\u00e9sultats enregistr\u00e9s en ao\u00fbt.<\/strong> D\u2019un mois sur l\u2019autre, les d\u00e9penses hors magasin (c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire celles aupr\u00e8s des d\u00e9taillants en ligne) ont connu des fluctuations cet \u00e9t\u00e9 en raison des particularit\u00e9s saisonni\u00e8res li\u00e9es au moment des Jours d\u2019offres Prime. Nous surveillerons de pr\u00e8s ce secteur afin de d\u00e9tecter tout signe d\u2019essoufflement chez les consommateurs, en particulier chez ceux \u00e0 revenu moyen, qui sont de plus en plus mis \u00e0 rude \u00e9preuve \u00e0 mesure que <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/analyse-pour-les-etats-unis\/analyse-en-vedette-analyse-pour-les-etats-unis\/le-point-sur-la-politique-du-fomc-resserrement-en-periode-de-choc-inflationniste-de-loffre\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-Cettesemaineaux\u00c9tats-Unis-8185-35c2ab30\" data-dig-category=\"LP-Cettesemaineaux\u00c9tats-Unis\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">le fardeau des paiements d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eats augmente<\/a>, que leur \u00e9pargne s\u2019amenuise et que leur recours au cr\u00e9dit s\u2019accentue. Il n\u2019en reste pas moins que les consommateurs \u00e0 revenu \u00e9lev\u00e9 continueront de g\u00e9n\u00e9rer la majeure partie des d\u00e9penses de consommation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6ae9b8cd714d0&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6ae9b8cd714d0\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1034\" height=\"948\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/10\/Chart-Translation3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8199\" style=\"width:650px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/10\/Chart-Translation3.png 1034w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/10\/Chart-Translation3.png?resize=300,275 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/10\/Chart-Translation3.png?resize=768,704 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/10\/Chart-Translation3.png?resize=1024,939 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1034px) 100vw, 1034px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6ae9b8cd7263e&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6ae9b8cd7263e\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1041\" height=\"953\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/11\/Chart-Translation2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8196\" style=\"width:650px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/11\/Chart-Translation2.png 1041w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/11\/Chart-Translation2.png?resize=300,275 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/11\/Chart-Translation2.png?resize=768,703 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/11\/Chart-Translation2.png?resize=1024,937 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1041px) 100vw, 1041px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>About the authors:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Mike Reid<\/strong><em> est chef, Services \u00e9conomiques RBC \u2013 \u00c9tats-Unis.\u00a0Il est charg\u00e9 d\u2019\u00e9tablir les perspectives \u00e9conomiques de RBC pour les \u00c9tats-Unis, de commenter les indicateurs macro\u00e9conomiques et de r\u00e9diger des analyses concernant le contexte \u00e9conomique.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><em><strong>Carrie Freestone<\/strong><em>\u00a0est \u00e9conomiste principale aux \u00c9tats-Unis \u00e0 RBC et membre de l\u2019\u00e9quipe des Services \u00e9conomiques aux \u00c9tats-Unis \u00e0 RBC\u00a0March\u00e9s des Capitaux. Elle est responsable de pr\u00e9voir les principaux indicateurs cl\u00e9s am\u00e9ricains, notamment le PIB, l\u2019emploi, les d\u00e9penses de consommation et l\u2019inflation aux \u00c9tats-Unis. Elle contribue \u00e9galement aux commentaires sur la conjoncture \u00e9conomique aux \u00c9tats-Unis qu\u2019elle transmet aux clients au moyen de publications, de pr\u00e9sentations et par l\u2019interm\u00e9diaire des m\u00e9dias.<\/em><\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Imri Haggin<\/strong><em>\u00a0est \u00e9conomiste \u00e0 RBC March\u00e9s des Capitaux, o\u00f9 il se concentre sur la recherche th\u00e9matique. Ses travaux ant\u00e9rieurs portaient sur la dynamique du cr\u00e9dit \u00e0 la consommation et la mod\u00e9lisation des liquidit\u00e9s, et mettaient l\u2019accent sur l\u2019utilisation des donn\u00e9es pour comprendre les comportements.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":8197,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[76],"tags":[],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-8185","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cette-semaine-aux-etats-unis"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.2 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>L\u2019IPC de septembre n\u2019est que la partie \u00e9merg\u00e9e de l\u2019iceberg de l\u2019inflation - RBC Economique<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/analyse-pour-les-etats-unis\/cette-semaine-aux-etats-unis\/lipc-de-septembre-nest-que-la-partie-emergee-de-liceberg-de-linflation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"L\u2019IPC de septembre n\u2019est que la partie \u00e9merg\u00e9e de l\u2019iceberg de l\u2019inflation\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" 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