{"id":7936,"date":"2026-10-19T13:54:49","date_gmt":"2026-10-19T13:54:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/?p=7936"},"modified":"2026-10-27T14:23:08","modified_gmt":"2026-10-27T14:23:08","slug":"linflation-au-canada-a-legerement-augmente-en-septembre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/analyse-pour-le-canada\/rapports-de-donnees-provisoires\/linflation-au-canada-a-legerement-augmente-en-septembre\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u2019inflation au Canada a l\u00e9g\u00e8rement augment\u00e9 en septembre"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h4 id=\"h-en-resume-nbsp\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-1\">En r\u00e9sum\u00e9&nbsp;:<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019inflation au Canada a l\u00e9g\u00e8rement augment\u00e9 pour atteindre 3,1&nbsp;% d\u2019une ann\u00e9e sur l\u2019autre en septembre, apr\u00e8s s\u2019\u00eatre maintenue \u00e0 3&nbsp;% pendant les deux mois pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents. Ce r\u00e9sultat est inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 l\u2019estimation consensuelle de 3,2&nbsp;% et l\u00e9g\u00e8rement sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 notre propre pr\u00e9vision de 3&nbsp;% avant la publication des donn\u00e9es.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Comme pr\u00e9vu, l\u2019inflation \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique s\u2019est acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9e, car les prix de l\u2019essence et du mazout ont augment\u00e9 par rapport \u00e0 ao\u00fbt, tandis que l\u2019inflation des aliments a continu\u00e9 de ralentir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Toutefois, peu d\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9ments indiquaient encore que les co\u00fbts \u00e9lev\u00e9s de l\u2019\u00e9nergie se r\u00e9percutaient de fa\u00e7on importante sur l\u2019ensemble des prix \u00e0 la consommation. Les donn\u00e9es de septembre montrent que les r\u00e9centes pressions inflationnistes se sont quelque peu \u00e9tendues. La transmission de ces hausses est demeur\u00e9e la plus visible dans les cat\u00e9gories de transport sensibles aux prix du p\u00e9trole, notamment les tarifs a\u00e9riens, tandis que la hausse des tarifs des transports en commun locaux est demeur\u00e9e relativement modeste.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La hausse des prix des aliments a encore ralenti, les prix dans les \u00e9piceries ayant progress\u00e9 \u00e0 leur rythme le plus lent depuis mai&nbsp;2024 (1,7&nbsp;% d\u2019une ann\u00e9e sur l\u2019autre). La hausse de l\u2019indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation (IPC) hors aliments et \u00e9nergie s\u2019est maintenue \u00e0 2,1&nbsp;% sur 12&nbsp;mois, tandis que les mesures privil\u00e9gi\u00e9es par la Banque du Canada, soit l\u2019IPC tronqu\u00e9 et l\u2019IPC m\u00e9dian, ont affich\u00e9 une moyenne de 1,9&nbsp;% sur 12&nbsp;mois.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La Banque du Canada doit toujours maintenir un \u00e9quilibre d\u00e9licat. L\u2019\u00e9conomie s\u2019am\u00e9liore graduellement, mais demeure faible, l\u2019emploi ayant recul\u00e9 en ao\u00fbt et en septembre et le taux de ch\u00f4mage se maintenant autour de 6,5&nbsp;%. Parall\u00e8lement, les d\u00e9cideurs demeurent attentifs au risque que des prix du p\u00e9trole durablement \u00e9lev\u00e9s fassent grimper les attentes d\u2019inflation ou entra\u00eenent des pressions plus g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9es sur les prix par effet de second tour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le gouverneur Macklem l\u2019a reconnu samedi, soulignant lors des r\u00e9unions du FMI \u00e0 Bangkok que \u00ab&nbsp;le risque que l\u2019inflation se g\u00e9n\u00e9ralise et devienne plus persistante a augment\u00e9&nbsp;\u00bb et que la Banque avait de plus en plus de mal \u00e0 continuer de faire abstraction de l\u2019incidence directe de la hausse des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les pressions sur les prix \u00e0 la production se sont \u00e9tendues, mais ces hausses de co\u00fbts devront persister et se transmettre \u00e0 plusieurs \u00e9tapes de la production avant de toucher plus largement les consommateurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"mar-b mob-mar-b wp-block-paragraph\">Notre propre hypoth\u00e8se de base pr\u00e9voit que la Banque laissera le taux du financement \u00e0 un jour inchang\u00e9 jusqu\u2019\u00e0 la fin de 2026, avant de relever graduellement les taux en 2027. Les donn\u00e9es plus faibles sur le march\u00e9 du travail et la hausse des co\u00fbts d\u2019emprunt \u00e0 taux fixe donnent aux d\u00e9cideurs une marge de man\u0153uvre pour demeurer patients. Toutefois, les r\u00e9centes communications de la Banque du Canada et du gouverneur Macklem traduisent un sentiment d\u2019urgence plus marqu\u00e9 que ne le laisseraient supposer les donn\u00e9es disponibles jusqu\u2019\u00e0 maintenant et accroissent le risque que la Banque choisisse d\u2019agir de fa\u00e7on pr\u00e9ventive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-M_Lx92woP\" class=\"everviz-M_Lx92woP\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 id=\"h-en-detail-nbsp\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-2\">En d\u00e9tail&nbsp;:<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list mar-l-qtr mob-mar-l-qtr\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En septembre, l\u2019IPC global a augment\u00e9 de 0,4&nbsp;% sur un mois en donn\u00e9es d\u00e9saisonnalis\u00e9es, portant le taux d\u2019inflation annuel \u00e0 3,1&nbsp;%, apr\u00e8s qu\u2019il s\u2019est maintenu \u00e0 3&nbsp;% pendant les deux mois pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie \u00e9taient de 19&nbsp;% plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s qu\u2019il y a un an, comparativement \u00e0 une hausse annuelle de 15,4&nbsp;% en ao\u00fbt. Les prix de l\u2019essence ont augment\u00e9 de 27,8&nbsp;%, contribuant pour 1,1&nbsp;point de pourcentage \u00e0 l\u2019inflation globale.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019inflation des aliments est pass\u00e9e de 2,8&nbsp;% en ao\u00fbt \u00e0 2,2&nbsp;% d\u2019une ann\u00e9e sur l\u2019autre, poursuivant ainsi sa tendance \u00e0 la baisse. La hausse des prix des aliments en \u00e9picerie s\u2019est \u00e9tablie \u00e0 1,7&nbsp;%, contre 2,8&nbsp;% le mois pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent, tandis que celle des prix des repas au restaurant a peu vari\u00e9, \u00e0 3,1&nbsp;%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La hausse de l\u2019IPC hors aliments et \u00e9nergie est demeur\u00e9e inchang\u00e9e \u00e0 2,1&nbsp;% sur 12&nbsp;mois, ce qui t\u00e9moigne d\u2019une hausse des prix relativement limit\u00e9e en dehors des cat\u00e9gories les plus volatiles.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019IPC tronqu\u00e9, que la Banque du Canada suit de pr\u00e8s, \u00e9tait de 1,8&nbsp;% sur 12&nbsp;mois et de 0,2&nbsp;% sur un mois, tandis que l\u2019IPC m\u00e9dian \u00e9tait de 1,9&nbsp;% sur 12&nbsp;mois et de 0,2&nbsp;% sur un mois. En rythme annualis\u00e9 sur trois mois, la moyenne de l\u2019IPC tronqu\u00e9 et de l\u2019IPC m\u00e9dian \u00e9tait de 2,6&nbsp;%, comparativement \u00e0 2,3&nbsp;% en ao\u00fbt.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La mesure tronqu\u00e9e des services hors logement, parfois appel\u00e9e \u00ab&nbsp;super inflation de base&nbsp;\u00bb, \u00e9tait de 2,5&nbsp;% sur 12&nbsp;mois, comparativement \u00e0 2,6&nbsp;% pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Notre indice de diffusion (qui mesure l\u2019\u00e9tendue des pressions inflationnistes) a montr\u00e9 que la proportion des composantes de l\u2019IPC dont les prix augmentent de plus de 3&nbsp;% a bondi \u00e0 47,8&nbsp;%, contre 25,9&nbsp;% en ao\u00fbt et 48,5&nbsp;% il y a un an. La proportion des composantes dont les prix augmentent de plus de 5&nbsp;% s\u2019est \u00e9tablie \u00e0 19,6&nbsp;%, contre 18,5&nbsp;% pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment et 32,3&nbsp;% il y a un an.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les frais de scolarit\u00e9, qui sont \u00e9tablis annuellement en septembre, ont augment\u00e9 de 2,4&nbsp;%, contre 1,7&nbsp;% en 2025. Cette hausse co\u00efncide avec la baisse de 7,6&nbsp;% sur 12&nbsp;mois du nombre de r\u00e9sidents non permanents titulaires d\u2019un permis d\u2019\u00e9tudes seulement ou de permis de travail et d\u2019\u00e9tudes. La baisse du nombre d\u2019\u00e9tudiants \u00e9trangers a r\u00e9duit une importante source de revenus pour les \u00e9tablissements d\u2019enseignement postsecondaire, incitant bon nombre de ces \u00e9tablissements \u00e0 augmenter les frais de scolarit\u00e9 pour compenser le manque \u00e0 gagner.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les tarifs a\u00e9riens, qui figurent parmi les cat\u00e9gories les plus expos\u00e9es \u00e0 la hausse des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie, ont bondi de 19,4&nbsp;%, contre 15&nbsp;% en ao\u00fbt. Toutefois, les prix du transport local ont poursuivi leur baisse.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019inflation du logement s\u2019est \u00e9tablie \u00e0 1,8&nbsp;% d\u2019une ann\u00e9e sur l\u2019autre, comparativement \u00e0 1,5&nbsp;% en ao\u00fbt. En dehors de la cat\u00e9gorie du mazout et des autres combustibles, les hausses de prix ont \u00e9t\u00e9 aliment\u00e9es par l\u2019augmentation plus rapide des prix des assurances habitation et hypoth\u00e9caire des propri\u00e9taires, ainsi que des co\u00fbts d\u2019entretien et de r\u00e9paration.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6ae1555c2e6f5&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6ae1555c2e6f5\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"8946\" height=\"9507\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/10\/FR-CPI-table-Oct-2026.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7939\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/10\/FR-CPI-table-Oct-2026.png 8946w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/10\/FR-CPI-table-Oct-2026.png?resize=282,300 282w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/10\/FR-CPI-table-Oct-2026.png?resize=768,816 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/10\/FR-CPI-table-Oct-2026.png?resize=964,1024 964w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/10\/FR-CPI-table-Oct-2026.png?resize=1445,1536 1445w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/10\/FR-CPI-table-Oct-2026.png?resize=1927,2048 1927w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 8946px) 100vw, 8946px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u00c0 propos de l\u2019auteur :<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Abbey Xu<\/strong><em>&nbsp;est \u00e9conomiste \u00e0 RBC. En tant que membre du groupe d\u2019analyse macro\u00e9conomique, elle se sp\u00e9cialise dans les mod\u00e8les de pr\u00e9visions macro\u00e9conomiques, et pr\u00e9sente des analyses et des mises \u00e0 jour opportunes sur les tendances \u00e9conomiques.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":1059,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[71,83],"tags":[88,14,97],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-7936","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse-pour-le-canada","category-rapports-de-donnees-provisoires","tag-canada","tag-economie","tag-inflation"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.2 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>L\u2019inflation au Canada a l\u00e9g\u00e8rement augment\u00e9 en septembre - RBC Economique<\/title>\n<meta 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