{"id":7919,"date":"2026-10-09T16:58:12","date_gmt":"2026-10-09T16:58:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/?p=7919"},"modified":"2026-10-28T14:28:44","modified_gmt":"2026-10-28T14:28:44","slug":"donnees-sur-linflation-au-canada-et-enquete-aupres-des-entreprises-attendues-avant-la-decision-de-la-banque-du-canada","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/indications-prospectives\/donnees-sur-linflation-au-canada-et-enquete-aupres-des-entreprises-attendues-avant-la-decision-de-la-banque-du-canada\/","title":{"rendered":"Donn\u00e9es sur l\u2019inflation au Canada et enqu\u00eate aupr\u00e8s des entreprises attendues avant la d\u00e9cision de la Banque du Canada"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-b-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Pour la semaine du 19&nbsp;octobre<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les donn\u00e9es sur l\u2019inflation au Canada et les r\u00e9sultats de l\u2019Enqu\u00eate sur les perspectives des entreprises de la Banque du Canada pour le troisi\u00e8me trimestre, qui seront publi\u00e9s lundi, seront examin\u00e9s de pr\u00e8s afin de d\u00e9terminer si les pressions inflationnistes d\u00e9coulant des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie durablement \u00e9lev\u00e9s se propagent \u00e0 l\u2019ensemble de l\u2019\u00e9conomie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ces publications seront des \u00e9l\u00e9ments cl\u00e9s de la prochaine d\u00e9cision de la Banque du Canada sur les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat, le 28&nbsp;octobre. Les responsables de la politique mon\u00e9taire craignent en effet que les prix \u00e9lev\u00e9s du p\u00e9trole se r\u00e9percutent au-del\u00e0 des prix de l\u2019essence sur les composantes hors \u00e9nergie ou contribuent \u00e0 la hausse des attentes d\u2019inflation des entreprises et des consommateurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il faut toutefois mettre en balance les risques d\u2019inflation et une \u00e9conomie qui s\u2019am\u00e9liore graduellement, mais demeure peu vigoureuse. Les progr\u00e8s ont \u00e9t\u00e9 in\u00e9gaux&nbsp;: la croissance du PIB devrait ralentir au deuxi\u00e8me semestre de 2026 par rapport au rythme plus soutenu du deuxi\u00e8me trimestre, l\u2019emploi a recul\u00e9 en ao\u00fbt, puis en septembre, et le taux de ch\u00f4mage s\u2019est stabilis\u00e9 autour de 6,5&nbsp;% au cours des trois derniers mois, apr\u00e8s avoir diminu\u00e9 au cours de l\u2019ann\u00e9e pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pour l\u2019instant, nous continuons de penser que le compromis d\u00e9licat entre les risques li\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019inflation et ceux li\u00e9s \u00e0 la croissance devrait contraindre la Banque du Canada \u00e0 maintenir ses taux inchang\u00e9s jusqu\u2019\u00e0 la fin de 2026, dans une position inconfortable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 id=\"h-les-prix-de-l-energie-durablement-eleves-soutiennent-l-inflation\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color has-text-lg-font-size wp-elements-1\">Les prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie durablement \u00e9lev\u00e9s soutiennent l\u2019inflation<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nous pr\u00e9voyons que le taux de variation en glissement annuel de l\u2019indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation (IPC) global au Canada se maintiendra \u00e0 3&nbsp;% en septembre, pour un troisi\u00e8me mois cons\u00e9cutif. L\u2019inflation \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique s\u2019est probablement acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9e, les prix de l\u2019essence et du mazout ayant fortement augment\u00e9 par rapport \u00e0 ao\u00fbt. L\u2019inflation des prix des aliments devrait toutefois continuer de ralentir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019inflation de base, qui exclut les aliments et l\u2019\u00e9nergie, devrait avoir l\u00e9g\u00e8rement diminu\u00e9 pour s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 1,8&nbsp;% en septembre, contre 2,1&nbsp;% en ao\u00fbt. Nous continuons de pr\u00e9voir que l\u2019inflation \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique se r\u00e9percutera peu sur les composantes de base, \u00e0 l\u2019exception des tarifs a\u00e9riens, mais nous surveillerons de pr\u00e8s les cat\u00e9gories li\u00e9es au transport, qui sont les plus expos\u00e9es \u00e0 ce risque.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Notre indice de diffusion de l\u2019IPC, qui mesure l\u2019\u00e9tendue des pressions inflationnistes, n\u2019a jusqu\u2019ici r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9 aucune g\u00e9n\u00e9ralisation pr\u00e9occupante de ces pressions. La proportion du panier de consommation dont les prix ont augment\u00e9 de plus de 3&nbsp;% sur un an est demeur\u00e9e faible en ao\u00fbt, \u00e0 35&nbsp;%, bien en de\u00e7\u00e0 des 54&nbsp;% observ\u00e9s un an auparavant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"mar-b mob-mar-b wp-block-paragraph\">Toutefois, le m\u00eame indice de diffusion appliqu\u00e9 aux prix \u00e0 la production industrielle indique d\u00e9j\u00e0 une propagation pr\u00e9occupante des hausses de prix. Il reste cependant un long chemin \u00e0 parcourir avant que celles-ci se transmettent aux diff\u00e9rents stades de la production pour se refl\u00e9ter dans les prix \u00e0 la consommation en magasin. D\u2019ici l\u00e0, les prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie devront demeurer \u00e9lev\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6ae8131cb60d0&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6ae8131cb60d0\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized hide-on-desktop wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1466\" height=\"1082\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/10\/Screenshot-2026-10-28-at-10.27.43-AM.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8069\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.354912745835147;width:601px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/10\/Screenshot-2026-10-28-at-10.27.43-AM.png 1466w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/10\/Screenshot-2026-10-28-at-10.27.43-AM.png?resize=300,221 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/10\/Screenshot-2026-10-28-at-10.27.43-AM.png?resize=768,567 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/10\/Screenshot-2026-10-28-at-10.27.43-AM.png?resize=1024,756 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1466px) 100vw, 1466px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-iZkS9eveW\" class=\"everviz-iZkS9eveW wp-block-hidden-mobile wp-block-hidden-tablet\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 id=\"h-l-enquete-aupres-des-entreprises-revelera-l-evolution-des-attentes-d-inflation\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color has-text-lg-font-size wp-elements-2\">L\u2019enqu\u00eate aupr\u00e8s des entreprises r\u00e9v\u00e9lera l\u2019\u00e9volution des attentes d\u2019inflation<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En compl\u00e9ment des donn\u00e9es sur les prix \u00e0 la consommation, l\u2019Enqu\u00eate sur les perspectives des entreprises du troisi\u00e8me trimestre fournira des indications qualitatives sur l\u2019incidence de la forte inflation \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, notamment sur la fa\u00e7on dont elle a influenc\u00e9 les attentes des entreprises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La confiance des entreprises s\u2019est d\u00e9t\u00e9rior\u00e9e au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre en raison de la hausse des co\u00fbts du carburant et de l\u2019incertitude commerciale persistante. Au troisi\u00e8me trimestre, ces risques se sont intensifi\u00e9s plut\u00f4t que de s\u2019att\u00e9nuer&nbsp;: la p\u00e9riode de collecte des donn\u00e9es de l\u2019enqu\u00eate (du d\u00e9but \u00e0 la mi-ao\u00fbt) a co\u00efncid\u00e9 avec une hausse des prix du p\u00e9trole et un regain des tensions commerciales li\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019imposition, le 22&nbsp;ao\u00fbt, de nouvelles mesures am\u00e9ricaines en vertu de l\u2019article&nbsp;338. Nous pensons que ces incertitudes ont pes\u00e9 davantage sur les perspectives des entreprises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nous examinerons de pr\u00e8s l\u2019\u00e9volution des perspectives de ventes des entreprises, de leurs intentions d\u2019investissement et d\u2019embauche, des hausses des prix des intrants et des prix de vente qu\u2019elles d\u00e9clarent, ainsi que de leurs attentes d\u2019inflation. Nous pr\u00e9voyons une nouvelle hausse des attentes d\u2019inflation \u00e0 court terme des entreprises, tandis que leurs attentes \u00e0 moyen et \u00e0 long terme demeurent relativement mieux ancr\u00e9es pr\u00e8s de la cible de 2&nbsp;%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le lundi&nbsp;19&nbsp;octobre, les Albertains voteront pour d\u00e9terminer s\u2019il convient d\u2019engager un processus menant \u00e0 un futur r\u00e9f\u00e9rendum contraignant sur la s\u00e9paration de l\u2019Alberta. Le vote par anticipation a commenc\u00e9 mardi.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les donn\u00e9es sur les ventes au d\u00e9tail qui seront publi\u00e9es vendredi prochain devraient concorder avec l\u2019estimation anticip\u00e9e de Statistique Canada, qui fait \u00e9tat d\u2019une hausse de 1,3&nbsp;% en ao\u00fbt. Les prix de l\u2019essence \u00e9tant demeur\u00e9s stables d\u2019un mois sur l\u2019autre, la hausse des ventes s\u2019explique probablement par une augmentation des volumes. Cette \u00e9volution cadre avec les donn\u00e9es sur les op\u00e9rations par carte RBC, qui t\u00e9moignent de d\u00e9penses vigoureuses pendant l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9 et d\u2019une croissance qui s\u2019est poursuivie en septembre, quoique plus lentement.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>\u00c0 propos des auteurs :<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Claire Fan<\/strong><em>&nbsp;est \u00e9conomiste&nbsp;principale&nbsp;\u00e0 RBC. Elle se concentre sur les tendances macro\u00e9conomiques et est charg\u00e9e d\u2019\u00e9tablir des pr\u00e9visions relatives au PIB, au march\u00e9 du travail et \u00e0 l\u2019inflation pour le Canada et les \u00c9tats-Unis, en fonction des principaux indicateurs.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Abbey Xu<\/strong><em>&nbsp;est \u00e9conomiste \u00e0 RBC. En tant que membre du groupe d\u2019analyse macro\u00e9conomique, elle se sp\u00e9cialise dans les mod\u00e8les de pr\u00e9visions macro\u00e9conomiques, et pr\u00e9sente des analyses et des mises \u00e0 jour opportunes sur les tendances \u00e9conomiques.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns has-border-color has-grey-border-color is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9ba6dbca wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\" style=\"border-width:1px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<h4 id=\"h-share-these-insights-with-your-network\" class=\"wp-block-heading mar-t-dbl mar-l-dbl\"><strong>Share these insights with your 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