{"id":7360,"date":"2026-09-11T14:50:26","date_gmt":"2026-09-11T14:50:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/?p=7360"},"modified":"2026-09-15T14:59:36","modified_gmt":"2026-09-15T14:59:36","slug":"les-tensions-inflationnistes-incitent-la-fed-a-intervenir-de-nouveau","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/analyse-pour-les-etats-unis\/cette-semaine-aux-etats-unis\/les-tensions-inflationnistes-incitent-la-fed-a-intervenir-de-nouveau\/","title":{"rendered":"Les tensions inflationnistes incitent la Fed \u00e0 intervenir de nouveau"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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La semaine prochaine, l\u2019accent sera mis sur la r\u00e9union de septembre du FOMC. Nous nous attendons maintenant \u00e0 ce que la Fed rel\u00e8ve le taux des fonds f\u00e9d\u00e9raux de 25 points de base<\/a>, la premi\u00e8re hausse depuis 2023.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Les donn\u00e9es de l\u2019IPC de base publi\u00e9es en ao\u00fbt<\/a> ont mis en \u00e9vidence l\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de la tendance inflationniste, l\u2019IPP a signal\u00e9 des pressions notables sur l\u2019inflation potentielle et le WTI a atteint 100\u00a0$ le baril en raison des pr\u00e9occupations \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de la guerre en Iran. Parall\u00e8lement, le volet emploi du mandat de la Fed ne montrait aucun signe \u00e9vident de faiblesse.<\/a>\u00a0Compte tenu de l\u2019intensification des risques inflationnistes, nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce que la Fed fasse suivre la hausse de taux de la semaine prochaine de deux autres rel\u00e8vements de 25\u00a0points de base lors des r\u00e9unions restantes de cette ann\u00e9e, ce qui annulerait enti\u00e8rement les trois baisses de taux pr\u00e9ventives effectu\u00e9es en 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La perspective de hausses de taux signifie que les consommateurs en ressentiront les effets. Comme nous l\u2019avons d\u00e9j\u00e0 soulign\u00e9, le fardeau des frais d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eats non hypoth\u00e9caires est d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9lev\u00e9<\/a>, et la hausse des taux y contribuera. Fait important, le rapport sur les ventes au d\u00e9tail d\u2019ao\u00fbt nous dira comment les consommateurs ont tenu le coup jusqu\u2019\u00e0 la fin de l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9. Nous pr\u00e9voyons que les ventes au d\u00e9tail d\u2019ao\u00fbt afficheront une hausse de 0,7 % par rapport au mois pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent, mais que cette hausse sera principalement attribuable aux ventes d\u2019essence. Les prix de l\u2019essence ont augment\u00e9 de 4 % sur un mois en ao\u00fbt, ce qui devrait entra\u00eener un certain repli ailleurs. Les v\u00e9hicules automobiles devraient \u00e9galement contribuer \u00e0 la hausse des d\u00e9penses globales, car Autodata a enregistr\u00e9 une hausse des ventes de v\u00e9hicules, apr\u00e8s une hausse importante du cr\u00e9dit \u00e0 la consommation non renouvelable (c.-\u00e0-d. les pr\u00eats automobiles). Toutefois, si l\u2019on exclut l\u2019incidence des ventes d\u2019essence et d\u2019automobiles, nous pr\u00e9voyons une croissance plus mod\u00e9r\u00e9e des d\u00e9penses, de 0,1 % par rapport au mois pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La plupart des consommateurs ont probablement d\u00e9j\u00e0 d\u00e9pens\u00e9 leurs remboursements d\u2019imp\u00f4t et, sous l\u2019effet de la hausse des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie, la confiance des consommateurs s\u2019est d\u00e9t\u00e9rior\u00e9e en ao\u00fbt. Tant l\u2019indice de confiance de l\u2019Universit\u00e9 du Michigan que celui du Conference Board ont recul\u00e9, ce qui laisse pr\u00e9sager un ralentissement de l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique. Les cat\u00e9gories de d\u00e9penses discr\u00e9tionnaires font face \u00e0 des difficult\u00e9s, car les m\u00e9nages \u00e0 revenu faible et moyen \u00e9pargnent moins et augmentent leur utilisation des cartes de cr\u00e9dit. Cette situation se refl\u00e8te dans la croissance plus lente des d\u00e9penses d\u2019\u00e9picerie et dans le recul des achats de certains biens discr\u00e9tionnaires co\u00fbteux, comme les appareils \u00e9lectroniques et les \u00e9lectrom\u00e9nagers. Nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce que l\u2019ensemble de la demande des consommateurs continue d\u2019\u00eatre soutenue par les m\u00e9nages fortun\u00e9s et \u00e0 revenu \u00e9lev\u00e9,<\/a> concentr\u00e9s de fa\u00e7on<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Les hausses de taux pr\u00e9sentent un risque de hausse des d\u00e9fauts de paiement<\/h5>\n\n\n\n
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Le recul des d\u00e9penses devient \u00e9vident \u00e0 mesure que les remboursements d\u2019imp\u00f4t s\u2019\u00e9puisent<\/h5>\n\n\n\n
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\u00c0 propos des auteurs :<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mike Reid<\/strong> est chef, Services \u00e9conomiques RBC \u2013 \u00c9tats-Unis. Il est charg\u00e9 d\u2019\u00e9tablir les perspectives \u00e9conomiques de RBC pour les \u00c9tats-Unis, de commenter les indicateurs macro\u00e9conomiques et de r\u00e9diger des analyses concernant le contexte \u00e9conomique.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Carrie Freestone<\/strong> is a Senior US Economist at RBC. She is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s US economic forecasts across GDP, employment, and inflation, and providing macro commentary through publications, presentations, and the media.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Imri Haggin<\/strong> is an US<\/em><\/em> Economist at RBC, where he focuses on thematic research. His prior work has centered on consumer credit dynamics and treasury modeling, with an emphasis on leveraging data to understand behavior.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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