{"id":7330,"date":"2026-09-11T20:19:11","date_gmt":"2026-09-11T20:19:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/?p=7330"},"modified":"2026-09-14T20:41:05","modified_gmt":"2026-09-14T20:41:05","slug":"linflation-globale-au-canada-sest-probablement-maintenue-a-3-en-aout-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/indications-prospectives\/linflation-globale-au-canada-sest-probablement-maintenue-a-3-en-aout-2\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u2019inflation globale au Canada s\u2019est probablement maintenue \u00e0 3 % en ao\u00fbt"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-b-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Pour la semaine du 14<sup>&nbsp;<\/sup>septembre<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La publication au cours de la prochaine semaine des donn\u00e9es canadiennes \u00e0 forte activit\u00e9 portera surtout sur le rapport sur l\u2019inflation de lundi en ao\u00fbt, alors que nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce que la croissance de l\u2019indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation global se maintienne \u00e0 3&nbsp;% sur 12&nbsp;mois.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La croissance des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie est toujours \u00e9lev\u00e9e, mais peu de choses ont chang\u00e9 par rapport \u00e0 juillet. Les prix de l\u2019essence ont l\u00e9g\u00e8rement baiss\u00e9 en ao\u00fbt par rapport \u00e0 juillet, mais demeurent en hausse de 23&nbsp;% par rapport \u00e0 l\u2019an dernier. L\u2019inflation des aliments s\u2019est att\u00e9nu\u00e9e au cours des derniers mois, mais devrait se maintenir autour de 3&nbsp;% en ao\u00fbt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En dehors des aliments et de l\u2019\u00e9nergie, les pressions sous-jacentes sur les prix devraient demeurer relativement limit\u00e9es, l\u2019inflation de base devant se maintenir autour de 1,9&nbsp;%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En septembre, la Banque du Canada a de nouveau pr\u00e9venu que les importantes r\u00e9percussions de la hausse des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie sur l\u2019inflation dans son ensemble pourraient inciter les d\u00e9cideurs \u00e0 relever les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Toutefois, les preuves concr\u00e8tes de ces r\u00e9percussions ont \u00e9t\u00e9 limit\u00e9es \u00e0 ce jour, au-del\u00e0 de l\u2019incidence directe sur les prix de l\u2019essence et les produits \u00e0 forte intensit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, comme les billets d\u2019avion. Les mesures de l\u2019ampleur de l\u2019inflation ont \u00e9t\u00e9 stables, ce qui donne \u00e0 penser que les pressions sur les prix demeurent concentr\u00e9es dans un ensemble relativement restreint de cat\u00e9gories. Les mesures de base privil\u00e9gi\u00e9es par la banque centrale ont oscill\u00e9 autour de la cible d\u2019inflation de 2&nbsp;%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La Banque du Canada a clairement indiqu\u00e9 que la politique mon\u00e9taire ne peut pas compenser directement l\u2019incidence des tarifs douaniers ni influencer les prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle mondiale, et qu\u2019elle continuera de d\u00e9pendre fortement sur les donn\u00e9es macro\u00e9conomiques et l\u2019\u00e9volution des risques d\u2019inflation prospective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Selon notre sc\u00e9nario de base, la banque centrale maintiendra les taux en 2026, puis les rel\u00e8vera graduellement en 2027, sous r\u00e9serve de l\u2019am\u00e9lioration continue de l\u2019\u00e9conomie. Toutefois, la voie \u00e0 suivre d\u00e9pend fondamentalement si l\u2019inflation sous-jacente demeure proche de la cible et si la reprise dans son ensemble demeure sur la bonne voie. Le risque de hausses h\u00e2tives a augment\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 id=\"h-la-reserve-federale-americaine-est-prete-a-decreter-sa-premiere-hausse-de-taux-car-les-pressions-inflationnistes-persistent\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-1\">La R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine est pr\u00eate \u00e0 d\u00e9cr\u00e9ter sa premi\u00e8re hausse de taux, car les pressions inflationnistes persistent<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"mar-b-hlf mob-mar-b-hlf wp-block-paragraph\">Les risques de hausses de taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat se sont \u00e9galement accentu\u00e9s aux \u00c9tats-Unis compte tenu de la d\u00e9cision de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale ce mercredi concernant les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat. L\u2019inflation a \u00e9t\u00e9 plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e que pr\u00e9vu en ao\u00fbt, ce qui indique que les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat ne sont pas suffisamment \u00e9lev\u00e9s pour ramener l\u2019inflation \u00e0 l\u2019objectif de 2&nbsp;%. Nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce que la Fed rel\u00e8ve la fourchette cible des fonds f\u00e9d\u00e9raux de 25&nbsp;points de base, les d\u00e9cideurs demeurant probablement pr\u00e9occup\u00e9s par les signes que les pressions inflationnistes sont plus persistantes et qu\u2019elles devraient indiquer que de nouvelles hausses seront encore n\u00e9cessaires.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6acbf784f2048&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6acbf784f2048\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full hide-on-desktop wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2334\" height=\"1610\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-at-4.39.22-PM.png\" alt=\"L\u2019ampleur des pressions inflationnistes demeure stable au Canada \" class=\"wp-image-7343\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-at-4.39.22-PM.png 2334w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-at-4.39.22-PM.png?resize=300,207 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-at-4.39.22-PM.png?resize=768,530 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-at-4.39.22-PM.png?resize=1024,706 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-at-4.39.22-PM.png?resize=1536,1060 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-at-4.39.22-PM.png?resize=2048,1413 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2334px) 100vw, 2334px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-QKfbi2Jxp\" class=\"everviz-QKfbi2Jxp wp-block-hidden-mobile wp-block-hidden-tablet\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"mob-mar-t-hlf mar-t-hlf wp-block-paragraph\">Les donn\u00e9es de l\u2019industrie canadienne feront \u00e9galement le point sur l\u2019activit\u00e9 au d\u00e9but du troisi\u00e8me trimestre. Les estimations pr\u00e9liminaires de Statistique Canada montrent une baisse de 0,2&nbsp;% des ventes du secteur manufacturier en juillet et une baisse de 0,6&nbsp;% des ventes de gros. Les prix des produits industriels ont augment\u00e9 de 0,7&nbsp;% sur une base d\u00e9saisonnalis\u00e9e au cours du mois, ce qui donne \u00e0 penser que les volumes des ventes du secteur manufacturier ont probablement l\u00e9g\u00e8rement recul\u00e9, m\u00eame si la hausse des prix a soutenu la valeur nominale des ventes.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u00c0 propos des auteurs :<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Nathan Janzen<\/strong><em>&nbsp;travaille \u00e0 RBC depuis 2008, o\u00f9 il s\u2019occupe principalement de la couverture des perspectives macro\u00e9conomiques du Canada et des \u00c9tats-Unis. Il est titulaire d\u2019une ma\u00eetrise en \u00e9conomie de l\u2019Universit\u00e9 McMaster et d\u2019un baccalaur\u00e9at en \u00e9conomie de l\u2019Universit\u00e9 de Regina.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Abbey Xu<\/strong><em>&nbsp;est \u00e9conomiste \u00e0 RBC. En tant que membre du groupe d\u2019analyse macro\u00e9conomique, elle se sp\u00e9cialise dans les mod\u00e8les de pr\u00e9visions macro\u00e9conomiques, et pr\u00e9sente des analyses et des mises \u00e0 jour opportunes sur les tendances \u00e9conomiques.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":354,"featured_media":2504,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[74],"tags":[88,14],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-7330","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-indications-prospectives","tag-canada","tag-economie"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.2 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>L\u2019inflation globale au Canada s\u2019est probablement maintenue \u00e0 3 % en ao\u00fbt - RBC Economique<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/indications-prospectives\/linflation-globale-au-canada-sest-probablement-maintenue-a-3-en-aout-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"L\u2019inflation globale au Canada s\u2019est probablement maintenue \u00e0 3 % en ao\u00fbt\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/fr\/economique\/indications-prospectives\/linflation-globale-au-canada-sest-probablement-maintenue-a-3-en-aout-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"RBC Economique\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-09-11T20:19:11+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-09-14T20:41:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" 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